Oscar Clearinghouse #6...Jan. 6th Edition

Holidays have come and gone. Guild nominations are coming out. And the announcement of Oscar nominees is just a couple of weeks away. Doubt has gotten some big help of late as has Dark Knight. Revolutionary Road seems to be fading into the distance and Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button and Milk continue to hum along. Here's the latest breakdown of the combination of 8 Oscar prediction websites (The Envelope, And the Winner Is, Everything Oscar, In Contention, Gurus of Gold, Awards Circuit, Film Experience and The Oscar Guy) with TELLURIDE CONNECTIONS IN CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: SLUMDOG, BUTTON, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Dark Knight

Lurkers: Doubt, Wall-E, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler, The Reader

Comment: The top 5 remain the same from 2 weeks ago. The biggest movers are Wall-E jumping onto the list at #7 and Rev Road dropping 2 spots. I think the the top 3 are locks and then you have a fight for the last 2 spots between 4 pictures. I am a little surprised that Doubt's success at Golden Globe and SAG noms hasn't generated more heat over the past 2 weeks. Also, the PGA noms help Dark Knight and Frost/Nixon. Wall-E is making a late charge, but a lot of buzz seems to think that the charge is too late. Both Rev Road and The Reader seem to be out of the running at this point.

Director: BOYLE/SLUMDOG, FINCHER/BUTTON, Van Sant/Milk, Howard/Frost, and Nolan/Dark

Lurkers: Aronofsky/Wrestler, Mendes/Rev Road, Demme/Rachel Getting Married, Allen/Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Shanley/Doubt

Comment: As you might expect, the 5 at the top are the directors of the 5 best pix leaders. The only serious movement is Woody Allen jumping onto the list at #9. The rest has been very stable the past 2 weeks. The DGA nominations come out Thursday...will that provide any surprises?

Actor: Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Langella/Frost, Eastwood/Gran Torino, Jenkins/The Visitor

Lurkers: PITT/BUTTON, DiCaprio/Rev Road, Brolin/W, D. Hoffman/Last Chance Harvey, Del Toro/Che

Comment: Some significant movement in this category...Eastwood and Jenkins are both up 2 spots and DiCaprio drops 3...The top 3 spots remain the same...I am not surprised by Jenkins movement..The SAG nom shows his strength and it is a wonderful, understated performance. Eastwood's strength does surprise me...Gran Torino has dropped off the radar in every other category except screenplay...Seems to me that 4 spots are solid...Penn, Rourke, Langella, and Jenkins and that the 5th spot is a pick-em...Saw Button over the holidays and I gotta say, I'm firmly in the "eh" camp. Pitt's performance...ok, Blanchett...ok (and I'm a Blanchett fan)...Henson's performance...overdone. It's pretty, but doesn't move you. Or at least, me.

Actress: Streep/Doubt, Winslet/Rev Road, Hathaway/Rachel, Jolie/Changeling, HAWKINS/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.

Lurkers: Leo/Frozen River, THOMAS/LOVED YOU SO LONG, BLANCHETT/BUTTON, Beckinsale/Nothing But the Truth, Williams/Wendy and Lucy.

Comment: Melissa Leo is a big mover, up 2 spots (again, thanks to SAG) and Kristin Scott Thomas is a big mover, down 2 spots... Will the Rev Road swoon hurt Winslet who has consistently been dueling with Streep for the top spot in this category? I've said for months now that this could be the most Telluride intensive category...or a total wash...I think it's most likely to be a total wash at this point...i think it's a pretty good bet that Melissa Leo sneaks into the 5th spot displacing Sally Hawkins and that the 3 Telluride women end up with no noms at all.

Supporting Actor: Ledger/Dark Knight, PS Hoffman/Doubt, Brolin/Milk, Downey/Tropic Thunder, Franco/Milk.

Lurkers: Shannon/Rev Road, PATEL/SLUMDOG, Fiennes/Reader, MARSAN/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, Fiennes/The Duchess.

Comment: The only big mover here is Eddie Marsan in Happy-Go-Lucky, jumping onto the list at #9. Really? You know, it was entertaining little bubble of a film. And Sally Hawkins performance is good, but really? My guess at this point is that the top 4 get nommed and that Dev Patel rides the Slumdog wave and his SAG nom to the 5th spot, displacing James Franco.

Supporting Actress: Cruz/Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Winslet/Reader, Henson/Button, Tomei/Wrestler.

Lurkers: Adams/Doubt, DeWitt/Rachel, Bates/Rev Road, Winger/Rachel, ZYLBERSTEIN/LOVED YOU.

Comment: No major movement in this category. Probably 6 women fighting for the 5 spots..Adams helped by the SAG nom.

Adapted Screenplay: SLUMDOG, BUTTON, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, and Revolutionary Road.

Lurkers: Reader, Dark Knight, Defiance, GOMORRAH, and no #10.

Comment: Again, no big moves here. WGA noms are just around the corner. Does Rev Road survive to get a nom here?

Original Screenplay: Milk, Rachel, Barcelona, Wall-E, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.

Lurkers: Wrestler, Visitor, Gran Torino, Burn After Reading, The Changeling.

Comment: Gran Torino makes a jump onto the list at #8.

Underview: Milk looks solid for 6 noms (maybe 7) in the Big 8 categories. Revolutionary Road, which was an early frontrunner has dived to only 2 "noms" and I think those might be shaky. My guess right now is that Button leads all nominees with double digits. That Slumdog gets 9 noms (see the last post) and that Milk and Slumdog duke it out for Best Pic...Button wins some of the tech stuff...but no major award. Frost/Nixon will get nominated for several and not win a single award.

Winner Picks (at this point):

Orig Script: Milk

Adapted Script: Slumdog

Supp. Actress: Cruz

Supp. Actor:Ledger

Actress: Streep

Actor: Penn

Director: Boyle

Picture: Slumdog