Less than 24 hours from nomination announcements and here is the last post prior to that. I have checked the charts one last time and compiled the information from: The Envelope (LA Times), And the Winner Is, Everything Oscar, In Contention, Gurus of Gold (Movie City News), Awards Circuit, Film Experience, Film Misery and The Oscar Guy. Here's what they tell us and my guesses going into tomorrow morning's announcement...
THE BIG EIGHT
Best Picture: Slumdog, Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Dark Knight are the cumulative chart picks...Doubt and Wall-E are your best chances at an upset. My picks mirror the 5 from the charts.
Best Director: Boyle/Slumdog, Fincher/Button, Van Sant/Milk, Howard/Frost/Nixon, Nolan/Dark Knight. The charts now point to Darren Aronofsky/The Wrestler as the ONLY chance at a surprise in this category. My picks are the charted 5. And this would be a relatively rare case of the 5 Best Picture nominees matching the 5 directing nominees.
Best Actor: Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Langella/Frost/Nixon, Eastwood/Gran Torino, Jenkins/The Visitor... I've been pointing at these 5 for a while now. I've thought for quite some time that Brad Pitt was going to miss out and the charts say that now as well. I agree with the charted 5 and in addition to Pitt being a possible "surprise" also add Leonardo DiCaprio...
Beat Actress: The charted 5 get messy after the first 3. Streep/Doubt, Winslet/Rev Road and Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married seem certain. The last two spots chart-wise at this point go to Jolie/Changeling and Hawkins/Happy-Go-Lucky. Melissa Leo and Cate Blanchett would be your "surprises". My picks are Streep, Hathaway, Winslet, Jolie and Leo/Frozen. I've thought for some time that the Telluride trio of Blanchett, Hawkins and Thomas would be shut out and I still think that's likely.
Best Supporting Actor: Ledger/Dark Knight, Brolin/Milk, Hoffman/Doubt, Downey, jr./Tropic Thunder, and Franco/Milk. "surprise" nominees: Michael Shannon and Dev Patel. My guess is that Patel knocks Franco out of the nominations and the rest of the charted four remain your nominees.
Best Supporting Actress: Charts say: Cruz,/VC Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Tomei/Wrestler, Henson/Button and Winslet/Reader..."surprise"...Amy Adams or Rosemarie DeWitt...My guess...Cruz, Davis, Winslet, Tomei and Adams bumping out Henson
Original Script: Charts say: Milk, Rachel Getting Married, VC Barcelona, Wall-E, and Happy-Go-Lucky. Surprises...The Visitor, The Wrestler, Burn After Reading. I think this is the hardest category to call this year. Especially since the WGA announced their nominees in the category. My picks (staying with what I've said before) remain: Milk, VC Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler and Happy-Go-Lucky.
Adapted Script: Charts: Slumdog, Button, Frost/Nixon, Doubt, The Dark Knight. Possible stunners: The Reader, Revolutionary Road. My picks are the chart (as was the pick for the WGA noms).
TECHNICALS:
Art Direction: Charts: Button, Dark Knight, Australia, Changeling, The Reader.
My Picks: Button, Dark Knight, Changeling, Doubt, Milk
Cinematography: Charts: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Rev Road, Australia
My Picks: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Rev Road, The Reader
Costumes: Button, The Duchess, Rev Road, Changeling, Australia
My Picks: Button, Duchess, Rev Road, Changeling, Milk
Film Editing:Charts: Slumdog, Button, Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk
My Picks: Ditto
Score: Charts: Button, Slumdog, Wall-E, Milk, Rev Road
My Picks: Button, Slumdog, Wall-E, Milk, Dark Knight
Song: Wrestler, Wall-E, Slumdog, Bolt, Cadillac Records
My Picks: Wrestler, Wall-E, Slumdog, Bolt, Gran Torino
Sound Editing: Charts: Wall-E, Iron Man, Dark Knight, Button, Quantum of Solace
My Picks: Ditto (but come on Slumdog!)
Sound Mixing: Iron Man, Wall-E, Dark Knight, Button, Slumdog
My Picks: Iron Man, Dark Knight, Quantum of Solace, Wall-E, Slumdog
Make Up: Charts: Button, The Reader, Synecdoche NY
My Picks: Button, The Reader, Dark Knight
Visual Effects: Charts: Button, Iron Man, Dark Knight
My Picks: Ditto
Overall the Charts say:
Button 13 noms, Dark Knight 10, Slumdog 8, Milk 8, Frost/Nixon 5, Doubt 4 and The Wrestler 3
My Predictions: Button 12, Dark Knight 12, Slumdog 9, Milk 9, Doubt 6, Frost/Nixon 5 and The Wrestler 4.
Telluride gets 21 or so from Button and Slumdog and adds another 2 for Waltz with Bashir (Animation and Foreign) plus another Foreign (Everlasting Moments)...for a truly stunning showing at Oscar time...
Can't wait for tomorrow morning...
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