Danny Boyle's Return?

Inside info, speculation or just wishful thinking? That's the question to be answered after The Playlist posted a story on Danny Boyle's "127 Hours" yesterday.

The Playlist suggests (as we have) that the film which stars James Franco as hiker Aron Ralston may follow the same path that "Slumdog Millionaire" did two years ago when it took Telluride then Toronto and then the world and the Oscars by storm.

Here's the link to that story: http://theplaylist.blogspot.com/2010/07/clemence-poesy-playing-aron-ralstons.html

The story centers on Ralston's true life adventure in the Utah wilderness that required him to make some drastic choices to stay alive.

In other news, Ioncinema posted speculative pieces yesterday concerning their guesses for both the Venice and Toronto festivals. The link to those articles is here:

For Toronto: http://www.ioncinema.com/news/id/5270/2010-toronto-int-film-festival-predictions

For Venice: http://www.ioncinema.com/news/id/4404

Updating the First Call

Thanks to the fine folks at Rope of Silicon we can add some other possibilities to our list for TFF #37...


Some more possibles (and why):




"127 Hours"...Danny Boyle's post-Slumdog feature from Fox Searchlight...James Franco stars. You have to think that they'd want to try to repeat the track that led to 8 Oscars for Slumdog (much like Jason Reitman sneaking "Up in the Air" at TFF #36 clearly following the path that "Juno" had established). Also it's scripted by "Slumdog" wirter Simon Beaufoy and is based on the true story of a hiker trapped in the Utah wilderness and forced to make desperate choices about his own life and death.





"Another Year"...Mike Leigh directs...and has a history with Telluride including "Happy Go Lucky" two years ago. Jim Broadbent (also featured two years ago at TFF#35 in "When Did You Last See Your Father") and Imelda Staunton star.






"Casino Jack"...George Hickenlooper directs Kevin Spacey in a telling of the Jack Abramoff scandal with Spacey as Abramoff. Rumored for a Cannes slot.






"The Descendants"...TFF #36 Guest Director Alexander Payne directs George Clooney in this domestic dramedy set in Hawaii. From Fox Searchlight. With Payne directing, and Fox Search producing, this is the film that might get Clooney to show up in the San Juans over Labor Day.


"Love Ranch"...Taylor Hackford (who was at TFF last year with his wife, Helen Mirren) directs Helen Mirren (who was at TFF last year with "The Last Station"...and it led to her Best Actress nomination). Based on the story of the husband and wife who established the first legal brothel in Nevada. Joe Pesci also stars.


"Miral" directed by Julian Schnabel. His first film since TFF #35"s "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"...straight up one of the ten best films of the first decade of the 21st century. Schnabel directs Willem Dafoe, who was at TFF #36 with "Adam Resurrected" and Freida Pinto of "Slumdog Millionaire"...which had a TFF #36 pedigree as well. The story focuses on the attempt to establish an orphanage in 1948 in Jerusalem.


And as mentioned previously...remove "Chloe" from the possible list as it opens soon...I need to pay more attention.

Other notes: Carey Mulligan has reportedly dropped out of "Brighton Rock". "The Tree of Life" is purportedly set to be released in November...but it's Terrence Malick...so...

6 Weeks

Can you say "Invictus". Clint Eastwood's Nelson Mandela project has annouced a release date positioned for the awards season. Morgan Freeman on board and its certain appeal as awards bait plus Eastwood's past with Telluride make one think that it is at least a possibility.

Oscar Clearinghouse #14...Post Mortem

Slumdog cast and crew winning Best Picture

It says something that the biggest surprise of the night was Best Foreign Film...Japan's Departures. Otherwise, the evening was full of the expected. My perfect night of predictions in the Big 8 categories ended when Sean Penn won his second Best Actor Oscar for "Milk". I had thought that his first win for "Mystic River" was too recent and that the Mickey Rourke comeback story would prove irresistible. That being said, it's hard to quibble with the award going to Penn because he was truly outstanding as Harvey Milk.

As to the rest of the categories: Nailed 'em, but it didn't seem all that difficult...a little suspense in the two actress categories.

But the Slumdog momentum was just too much everywhere else. Including a tiny surprise in Sound Mixing that made the total count for Slumdog go to 8 Oscars.

I have said it before...I think that we discovered after Telluride this year that it was not the best year for film. Compared to last year's fest (Juno, Into the Wild, Diving Bell, There Will Be Blood, Persepolis...) and the year that was 2007...2008 couldn't really compete. I think we also realized as the fall turned into winter that the festival organizers had done a terrific job with what films they had to chose from. Slumdog isn't a great film...it's good, but not great...still, it was the best thing I saw all year (Milk was a close second).

We learned again that the Telluride Festival is, perhaps, the most influential fest in the world...certainly among the top 5...and as I watched the Oscar telecast last night, I was reminded of how incredibly fortunate I have been to have been able to have participated the last three years. And I am thrilled at the prospect that come Labor Day this year, I expect to be back. Thanks Larry and Mitzi!!!

The Telluride Film Blog now goes into hibernation for a while. I'm at my busiest time of the school year for the next 2 months. As we approach summer, I'll resurrect the blog and start the speculation about what the 2009 version of Telluride may hold. Can't wait!

Oscar Clearinghouse #13...And On With The Show

Overture, curtain, lights,

This is it, the night of nights

No more rehearsing and nursing our parts

We know every part by heart

Overture, curtain, light

This is it, we'll hit the heights

And oh what heights we'll hit

On with the show this is it

Tonight what heights we'll hit

On with the show this is it.

2 days left before Oscar!!!

And the expectations addressed last week have not really changed...My picks remain the same

Picture: SLUMDOG (TFF 2008)

Director: DANNY BOYLE/SLUMDOG

Actor: Mickey Rourke/Wrestler (edging out Sean Penn...my TFF buddy from 2007)

Actress: Kate Winslet/Reader

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger/Dark Knight

Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz (TFF 2006)/VC Barcelona

Original Script: Dustin Lance Black/Milk

Adapted Script: SIMON BEAUFOY/SLUMDOG

Additionally look for Slumdog to get Film Editing, Cinematography, Score and Song...and if it's a real sweep...Sound Mixing and Sound Editing...most pundits don't think the last two are going to happen...but maybe...

I'm guessing Button wins 2 or 3 tech awards...

WALTZ WITH BASHIR (TFF 2008) wins for Foreign Film

Check back next week...I'll do an Oscar post mortem for 2008's films in what will probably be the last post until sometime after the State Speech Tournament here in Oklahoma...I have a small part to play in its execution...

Oscar Clearinghouse #12...Tick, Tick, Tick...

Dev Patel and Freida Pinto in Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire"
Is it 2008's Best Film? Oscar is going to say: "YES" on Feb. 22...

Less than two weeks from the Big Show and the Oscar community has settled into relative stupor. The conventional wisdom is that most of the main races are all but over and far be it from me to disagree...The Slumdog Millionaire Express has taken a lot of the suspense out of the weeks leading up to Oscar. That is unlikely to change in the next few days. The BAFTA awards over the weekend (the British version of Oscar) continued to echo what has been happening throughout awards season...Slumdog is the big dog and in all likelihood will be on Oscar night as well. Here's the lowdown by category for the Big Eight awards and a few comments along the way...

Best Picture: There is some buzz of a backlash against Slumdog based on whispers of exploitative work practices with regard to the younger children in the film. I suspect that is entirely hogwash...and that it won't actually diminish the film's chances of winning the Best Picture Oscar...Winner: Slumdog Millionaire...Surprise: Anything Else

Best Director: Danny Boyle has cleaned up this season and will no doubt do so again on Feb. 22. Again, some negative backlash buzz and a supposed mini-boomlet of support for Stephen Daldry, but Boyle is your winner. Winner: Danny Boyle/Slumdog. Surprise: David Fincher/Benjamin Button

Best Actor: The best race of the night it seems...Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke? Both performances have been honored during this awards season...Saw Milk a couple of weeks back and Penn is amazing! But Rourke has the come back story going for him and his work (what I've seen from the film) is also amazing...go with....Winner: Mickey Rourke/The Wrestler. Surprise: Though not really, Penn

Best Actress: A lot of folks think that the move to Kate Winslet in the last month has sealed the deal for her to win her first Oscar. I'm not so sure. She is the best thing about The Reader...which aims and misses as far as I was concerned...but she is very good in it. That said, I still think the Academy might go elsewhere...Streep being the most likely to pick up the trophy. The Anne Hathaway bandwagon, which seemed pretty strong 4-6 weeks ago, has all but disappeared. Winner: Winslet/The Reader. Surprise: Streep/Doubt

Supporting Actor: Ledger. Not a lot more to say. Going to win it...Should win it. Surprise: Impossible to contemplate.

Supporting Actress: I have been very confident about Penelope Cruz for months now. And with Kate Winslet gone to the lead category...she should be in great shape. Winner: Cruz/Barcelona. Surprise: Davis/Doubt

Original Script: Some actual uncertainty here. A battle between Milk and Wall-E...The human wins? Winner: Milk. Surprise: Wall-E

Adapted Script: Slumdog strikes again. Winner: Beaufoy/Slumdog. Surprise: David Hare/The Reader.

Other notes: I think that Slumdog is also likely to win Cinematography, Film Editing, Song, Score, And perhaps the Sound Editing and Mixing as well...meaning as many as 9 trophies...(It can't win 10 as it is double nominated in Best Song)...And maybe it doesn't...but I got a feeling...

It's D. Destiny!

Button...13 noms and no wins? Probably not. It probably wins a technical award here and there to avoid the complete shutout...

Waltz with Bashir will win Foreign Film...

Man On Wire will win Best Doc...beating 2007 TFF entrant from Werner Herzog, Encounters at the End of the World.

Last column before Oscar will go up the Friday before...Peace!

Oscar Clearinghouse #11...No Love for TDK

Pardon the expression, but HOLY CRAP BATMAN! It's a dark day for The Dark Knight!

After what seemed to be a tsunami of buzz that The Dark Knight would break new ground and grab a Best Pic nom...boy did it get SNUBBED this morning or what??? No Best Pic or Director or Screenplay...WOW. And the beneficiary, clearly The Reader...which got all of those plus Kate Winslet in Best Actress not Supporting...

And, as is often the case, I don't seem to be nearly as smart as I think I am... The only categories I got 100% right...Film Editing and Visual Effects....Missed at least one in every other category that I picked (18 categories all together)....Geeeez!

Here's the link to the official nominees page:

http://www.oscars.org/awards/81academyawards/nominees.html

And the notes from this morning by category...

Best Pic: TDK out, The Reader in...actually, if you were paying attention this morning and saw that Winslet was not a nominee for Supporting...that was the first sign that things might get weird...Both the chart and I go for 4 for 5.

Best Director: Again...Nolan/TDK out and Stephen Daldry/Reader in...although the Best Pic and Directors match 5 for 5 and that's fairly rare. Again the chart and I both go 4 for 5.

Best Actor...I was 4 for 5 here missing Pitt as I thought there was enough support for Eastwood to get him a nomination here. The chart was 4 for 5 as well.

Best Actress: I go 4 for 5 here missing the movie that Winslet gets nominated for...otherwise pleased that I picked Melissa Leo to get a nom and she did. The chart gets 3 for 5...and my thought that the Telluride threesome of Hawkins, Thomas and Blanchett wouldn't be in the money proved to be right.

Best Supporting Actor: Both myself and the chart go 4 for 5...but I missed with my pick of Dev Patel (thought the Slumdog momentum would be enough) and the charts had James Franco in Milk...instead...Michael Shannon for Rev Road...who was a front runner earlier in the season gets Rev Road's only major nomination.

Best Supporting Actress: I go 4 for 5. The chart does too. We both miss Winslet sliding up to the lead category...I got Amy Adams...the chart got Taraji P. Henson

Adapted Script: Again no TDK and yes for The Reader...Charts and I go 4 for 5.

Original Script: I go 3 for 5 in what many thought was the toughest category to pick. The chart was also 3 for 5...We both missed Frozen River and In Bruges.

Other stuff...I was surprised Waltz with Bashir was NOT an animated film nominee

Slumdog gets 2 Best Song noms...and there are only 3 songs nominated...really?

Telluride connections go like this as best as I can tell this morning:

13 for Button

10 for Slumdog

4 others: Waltz with Bashir and Revanche (Foreign), Encounters at the End of the World (TFF 2007/Documentary and a shout out to my bus buddy Werner Herzog). New Boy (Live Action Short)... For a total of 27. Now on to Feb 22 and the winners!

Oscar Clearinghouse # 10...Last Call!

Less than 24 hours from nomination announcements and here is the last post prior to that. I have checked the charts one last time and compiled the information from: The Envelope (LA Times), And the Winner Is, Everything Oscar, In Contention, Gurus of Gold (Movie City News), Awards Circuit, Film Experience, Film Misery and The Oscar Guy. Here's what they tell us and my guesses going into tomorrow morning's announcement...

THE BIG EIGHT

Best Picture: Slumdog, Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Dark Knight are the cumulative chart picks...Doubt and Wall-E are your best chances at an upset. My picks mirror the 5 from the charts.

Best Director: Boyle/Slumdog, Fincher/Button, Van Sant/Milk, Howard/Frost/Nixon, Nolan/Dark Knight. The charts now point to Darren Aronofsky/The Wrestler as the ONLY chance at a surprise in this category. My picks are the charted 5. And this would be a relatively rare case of the 5 Best Picture nominees matching the 5 directing nominees.

Best Actor: Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Langella/Frost/Nixon, Eastwood/Gran Torino, Jenkins/The Visitor... I've been pointing at these 5 for a while now. I've thought for quite some time that Brad Pitt was going to miss out and the charts say that now as well. I agree with the charted 5 and in addition to Pitt being a possible "surprise" also add Leonardo DiCaprio...

Beat Actress: The charted 5 get messy after the first 3. Streep/Doubt, Winslet/Rev Road and Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married seem certain. The last two spots chart-wise at this point go to Jolie/Changeling and Hawkins/Happy-Go-Lucky. Melissa Leo and Cate Blanchett would be your "surprises". My picks are Streep, Hathaway, Winslet, Jolie and Leo/Frozen. I've thought for some time that the Telluride trio of Blanchett, Hawkins and Thomas would be shut out and I still think that's likely.

Best Supporting Actor: Ledger/Dark Knight, Brolin/Milk, Hoffman/Doubt, Downey, jr./Tropic Thunder, and Franco/Milk. "surprise" nominees: Michael Shannon and Dev Patel. My guess is that Patel knocks Franco out of the nominations and the rest of the charted four remain your nominees.

Best Supporting Actress: Charts say: Cruz,/VC Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Tomei/Wrestler, Henson/Button and Winslet/Reader..."surprise"...Amy Adams or Rosemarie DeWitt...My guess...Cruz, Davis, Winslet, Tomei and Adams bumping out Henson

Original Script: Charts say: Milk, Rachel Getting Married, VC Barcelona, Wall-E, and Happy-Go-Lucky. Surprises...The Visitor, The Wrestler, Burn After Reading. I think this is the hardest category to call this year. Especially since the WGA announced their nominees in the category. My picks (staying with what I've said before) remain: Milk, VC Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler and Happy-Go-Lucky.

Adapted Script: Charts: Slumdog, Button, Frost/Nixon, Doubt, The Dark Knight. Possible stunners: The Reader, Revolutionary Road. My picks are the chart (as was the pick for the WGA noms).

TECHNICALS:

Art Direction: Charts: Button, Dark Knight, Australia, Changeling, The Reader.

My Picks: Button, Dark Knight, Changeling, Doubt, Milk

Cinematography: Charts: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Rev Road, Australia

My Picks: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Rev Road, The Reader

Costumes: Button, The Duchess, Rev Road, Changeling, Australia

My Picks: Button, Duchess, Rev Road, Changeling, Milk

Film Editing:Charts: Slumdog, Button, Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk

My Picks: Ditto

Score: Charts: Button, Slumdog, Wall-E, Milk, Rev Road

My Picks: Button, Slumdog, Wall-E, Milk, Dark Knight

Song: Wrestler, Wall-E, Slumdog, Bolt, Cadillac Records

My Picks: Wrestler, Wall-E, Slumdog, Bolt, Gran Torino

Sound Editing: Charts: Wall-E, Iron Man, Dark Knight, Button, Quantum of Solace

My Picks: Ditto (but come on Slumdog!)

Sound Mixing: Iron Man, Wall-E, Dark Knight, Button, Slumdog

My Picks: Iron Man, Dark Knight, Quantum of Solace, Wall-E, Slumdog

Make Up: Charts: Button, The Reader, Synecdoche NY

My Picks: Button, The Reader, Dark Knight

Visual Effects: Charts: Button, Iron Man, Dark Knight

My Picks: Ditto

Overall the Charts say:

Button 13 noms, Dark Knight 10, Slumdog 8, Milk 8, Frost/Nixon 5, Doubt 4 and The Wrestler 3

My Predictions: Button 12, Dark Knight 12, Slumdog 9, Milk 9, Doubt 6, Frost/Nixon 5 and The Wrestler 4.

Telluride gets 21 or so from Button and Slumdog and adds another 2 for Waltz with Bashir (Animation and Foreign) plus another Foreign (Everlasting Moments)...for a truly stunning showing at Oscar time...

Can't wait for tomorrow morning...

Oscar Clearinghouse #9 Jan. 16...Tech!

Here are the compilations of charts for the 10 technical categories using data from In Contention, Awards Circuit, Film Experience and The Oscar Guy. Also included are Guild nominations where appropriate...as always Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD:

Art Direction: BUTTON, Dark Knight, Australia, Changeling, The Reader

Lurkers (with a prayer): Revolutionary Road, Indiana Jones 3, Doubt

Guild Notes: Art Director's Guild Noms:

Period Art Direction: Changeling, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Milk

Fantasy Art Direction: The Dark Knight, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Iron Man, The Spiderwick Chronicles, Wall-E.

Comment: Button, Dark Knight and Changeling seem sure bets. Doubt is probable. Give the last spot to Milk.

Winner: Button

Cinematography: SLUMDOG, The Dark Knight, BENJAMIN BUTTON, Revolutionary Road, Australia.

Lurkers: The Reader, Milk, Defiance

Guild Notes: American Society of Cinematographers:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire.

Comment: Follow the Guild and replace Australia with The Reader for your nominations.

Winner: Slumdog

Costumes: BUTTON, The Duchess, Revolutionary Road, Changeling, and Australia.

Lurkers: The Other Boleyn Girl and Brideshead Revisited

Guild Notes: Costume Designers Guild:

Period Costume Design: Changeling, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Duchess, Milk, Revolutionary Road

Fantasy Costume Design: The Dark Knight, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor

Contemporary Costume Design: Iron Man, Mamma Mia!, Sex and the City, Slumdog Millionaire, The Wrestler

Comment: Button, Duchess, Rev Road, and Changeling are pretty good bets...The 5th spot...let's say: Milk

Winner: The Duchess

Film Editing: SLUMDOG, BUTTON, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk

Lurkers: Iron Man, The Reader

Guild Notes: American Cinema Editors Society:

Drama Film Editing: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire

Comedy/Musical Film Editing: In Bruges, Mamma Mia, Tropic Thunder, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E

Comment: The chart should lead you to the five nominees.

Winner: Slumdog

Score: BUTTON, SLUMDOG, Wall-E, Milk, Revolutionary Road.

Lurkers: Defiance, Indiana Jones 3, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, The Dark Knight.

Comment: I think Dark Knight replaces Rev Road for the nominees.

Winner: Button

Song: The Wrestler, Wall-E, SLUMDOG, Bolt, Cadillac Records

Lurking: Gran Torino, Hamlet 2, Quantum of Solace

Comment: I think the compiled charts get the first four right and that the 5th spot is a real tussle between Cadillac and Gran Torino...I lean toward Gran Torino for the fifth nomination.

Winner: The Wrestler/Springsteen

Sound Editing: Wall-E, Iron Man, Dark Knight, BUTTON, Quantum of Solace

Lurking: Indiana Jones 3, Defiance, SLUMDOG, Valkyrie

Comment: I will default to the chart...but this note: If Slumdog is really steaming along, I wouldn't be all that surprised at another nomination in this category.

Winner: Iron Man

Sound Mixing: Iron Man, Wall-E, Dark Knight, BUTTON, SLUMDOG.

Lurking: Quantum of Solace, Defiance

Guild Nominations: Cinema Audio Society:

Sound: The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Quantum of Solace, Slumdog Millionaire, Wall-E

Comment: Go with the Guild here...

Winner: Iron Man

Make-Up: BUTTON, The Reader, Synecdoche, NY

Lurking: Dark Knight, Hellboy II, Tropic Thunder, The Wrestler

Winner: Button

Visual Effects: BUTTON, Iron Man, Dark Knight

Lurking: Hellboy II, Journey to the Center of the Earth, Australia

Winner: Button

The combined charts say the nomination totals are as follows:

Benjamin Button 13

The Dark Knight 10

Slumdog and Milk 8

Frost/Nixon and Wall-E 5

Doubt 4

The Wrestler, Rev Road, The Reader, Changeling, Australia, and Iron Man 3

Total Telluride nominations excluding Doc, Short Doc and Foreign (which could be 3 more): 24

And finally: If you've read the previous posts you know that I'm guessing that Button loses at least one or two of it's charted nominations and Slumdog picks up one or two...so my prediction is 12 for Button and 9 for Slumdog...Also, I expect Waltz with Bashir to be a certain Foreign nominee and likely Everlasting Moments as well. Revanche is probably unlikely.

Oscar Clearinghouse # 8 Post Golden Globes Jan. 15

NOMINATIONS WILL BE ANNOUNCED IN ONE WEEK!!!

The Golden Globes are done and the list of Foreign film finalists have been announced (much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth again this year...one word: Gomorra).

Here is the the list for Foreign Film: (Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD)

Austria, REVANCHE (dir. Gotz Spielmann)
Canada, The Necessities of Life (dir. Benoit Pilon)
France, The Class (dir. Laurent Cantet)
Germany, The Baader Meinhof Complex (dir. Uli Edel)
Israel, WALTZ WITH BASHIR (dir. Ari Folman)
Japan, Departures (dir. Yojiro Takita)
Mexico, Tear This Heart Out, (dir. Roberto Sneider)
Sweden, EVERLASTING MOMENTS (dir. Jan Troell)
Turkey, 3 Monkeys (dir. Nuri Bilge Ceylan)

Golden Globe Winners: (Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD)

Picture, Drama: "SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE".
Picture, Musical or Comedy: "Vicky Cristina Barcelona."
Actor, Drama: Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler."
Actress, Drama: Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road."
Director: DANNY BOYLE,"SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE."
Actor, Musical or Comedy: Colin Farrell, "In Bruges."
Actress, Musical or Comedy: SALLY HAWKINS, "HAPPY-GO-LUCKY."
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight."
Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet, "The Reader."
Foreign Language Film: "WALTZ WITH BASHIR."
Animated Film: "Wall-E."
Screenplay: SIMON BEAUFOY, "SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE."
Original Score: A.R. RAHMAN, "SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE."
Original Song: "The Wrestler" (Bruce Springsteen)



On to the compilation of the Oscar Guessperts. (Includes: The L.A. Times Envelope, And the Winner Is, Everything Oscar, In Contention, Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, Awards Circuit, The Film Experience, Film Misery, and The Oscar Guy):

Best Picture: SLUMDOG MILLIONARIE, BENJAMIN BUTTON, Milk, Frost/Nixon, The Dark Knight.
Lukring: Doubt,Wall-E, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler, The Reader.
Comment: The 10 films in the lead stay the same. The only change is a switch in positons between Milk and Frost/Nixon. These top 5 get the nominations. The spoiler is Wall-E.

Direction: DANNY BOYLE/SLUMDOG, DAVID FINCHER/BUTTON, Gus Van Sant/Milk, Christopher Nolan/Dark Knight, Ron Howard/Frost/Nixon.
Lurking: Darren Aronofsky/Wrestler, Woody Allen/VC Barcelona, Jonathan Demme/Rachel, Sam Mendes/Rev Road, Steven Daldry/Reader.
Comment: Woody Allen makes a substantial move...up 2 spots. Revolutionary Road continues it's slide with Sam Mendes dropping 2 spots. Daldry returns to the list. Again, these top 5 are your nominees. There is always the possibility that the Academy has one of those years where the direction nominees and Best Picture vary by one...and that might open the door for Aronofsky, Allen or Demme.

Actor: Sean Penn/Milk, Frank Langella/Frost/Nixon, Mickey Rourke/The Wrestler, Richard Jenkins/The Visitor, Clint Eastwood/Gran Torino.
Lurking: BRAD PITT/BUTTON, Leonardo DiCaprio/RevRd, Josh Brolin/W, Benicio Del Toro/Che, Dustin Hoffman/Last Chance Harvey.
Comment: Minimal movement in this category. The top 5 are your nominees. I'd be surprised at this point if Pitt were able to sneak back into the mix.

Actress: Meryl Streep/Doubt, Anne Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married, Kate Winslet/Revolutionary Road, Angelina Jolie/Changeling, SALLY HAWKINS/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.
Lurking: Melissa Leo/Frozen River,CATE BLANCHETT/BUTTON, KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS/LOVED YOU SO LONG, Kate Beckinsale/Nothing but the Truth, Michelle Williams/Wendy & Lucy.
Comment: Again, no major movement. I think that Melissa Leo sneaks in and Sally Hawkins misses out.

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger/The Dark Knight, Philip Seymour Hoffman/Doubt, Josh Brolin/Milk, Robert Downey, Jr./Tropic Thunder, and James Franco/Milk.
Lurking: DEV PATEL/SLUMDOG, Michael Shannon/Rev Road, EDDIE MARSAN/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, Ralph Fiennes for both The Duchess and The Reader.
Comment: The only substantial drop is Fiennes for The Reader, down 2 spots. Keep the first four and swap Patel for Franco is my guess on the nominees.

Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz/VC Barcelona, Viola Davis/Doubt, Kate Winslet/The Reader, TARAJI P. HENSON/BENJAMIN BUTTON, and Marisa Tomei/The Wrestler.
Lurking: Amy Adams/Doubt, Rosemarie DeWitt/Rachel, Kathy Bates/Rev Road, Debra Winger/Rachel, TILDA SWINTON/BENJAMIN BUTTON.
Comment: Swinton appears for the first time. My guess is Amy Adams in and Taraji Henson out.

Adated Screenplay: SIMON BEAUFOY/SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, ERIC ROTH/BENJAMIN BUTTON, John Patrick Shanley/Doubt, Peter Morgan/Frost/Nixon, and the Nolan Brothers/The Dark Knight.
Lurking: The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Defiance, Gomorra, and Iron Man????
Comment: Dark Knight jumps up 2 spots (thanks WGA nom), Revolutionary Road down 2 and Iron Man appears on a couple of lists for the first time....really! My nom guesses are the top 5 listed here.

Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black/Milk, Woody Allen/VC Barcelona, Janet Lumet/Rachel Getting Married, Andrew Stanton/Wall-E, MIKE LEIGH/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.
Lurking: The Wrestler, The Visitor, Gran Torino, Burn After Reading, Changeling.
Comment: Again...not a lot of movement. And your guess is as good as anyone's. Taking a shot, I'm going with: Milk, Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler and Happy-Go-Lucky...at least for today...Rachel maybe......The Visitor...maybe.

And ANIMATION:

Noms: Wall-E, Kung Fu Panda, WALTZ WITH BASHIR.
Lurking: Bolt, Horton Hears a Who
Comment: The top 3 are your nominees!

Underview: Milk leads with 6 "Big 8" noms on the charts...
Button, Frost/Nixon, Doubt and Dark Knight each have 4
Slumdog has 3

The combo of noms and lurking shows:
Button and Rev Road with 7 (although Winslet now looks to be the only nom in the Big 8 categories), Milk and Doubt with 6, Wrestler, Rachel and Reader with 5, and Slumdog, Frost/Nixon and Dark Knight with 4.

I will try to post a compilation of Tech awards projections tomorrow and also predict total nominations for the major players. Also, I'll probably try to get one more post in before Oscar nominations are announced on the morning of Jan. 22....

A Week To Go

Multiple sources including Variety confirmed today that Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire" will be part of the Telluride film line-up for this year's festival. That tidbit was reported here on Aug. 12.

Otherwise, speculation remains very muted with one week left prior to the kick off of the fest. Other Cannes possibles (that are also aligned with Sony Classics Pictures which was a big connection to films that played the fest last year) include "Adoration"and "Lorna's Silence".

Also, a frequent contributor of films that past 2 years has been Paramount Vantage, which has 3 films positioned for fall release. "The Duchess" with Ralph Fiennes and Keira Knightley, "Defiance" with Daniel Craig and Liev Schreiber and, of course, DeCaprio and Winslet reunited in the Sam Mendes directed "Revolutionary Road".

You have to think that a couple of these also end up on the Telluride play list.

Just In

Patrick Goldstein in the LA Times reports tonight that Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire" is on the list for the Festival. Boyle previously directed "28 Days Later" and "Sunshine" and the minor classic "Trainspotting".