With just hours left before we find out the jury's decision ab out which films receive what awards at the 64th Cannes Film Festival I can confidently say that there is absolutely no consensus about where this jury, headed by Robert DeNiro, is going to land. Every one of the films that Cannes regulars seem to think have a chance also has some serious baggage to overcome. Added to that is the fact that predicting a jury's decision when the members are new each year is a fool's game. Nevertheless, no one ever said I wasn't a fool, so here's some speculation...
The big prize, of course, is the Plame D'Or. Films thought o have the best chance are "The Skin I Inhabit" from Pedro Almodovar, "The Tree of Life" from Terrence Malick, "Melancholia" from Lars Von Trier, "The Artist" from Michel Hazanavicius, "The Kid with a Bike" from The Dardennes Brothers, "Drive" from Nicolas Winding Refn, "La Havre" from Aki Kaurismaki and "We Have to Talk About Kevin" from Lynne Ramsay.
Late entries for which there has been little time for critical response were "Once Upon a Time in Anatolia" from Nuri Bilge Ceylan and "The Source" from Radu Mihaileanu. I mention these despite not having their critical reaction in total because of late Cannes has made something of a habit of awarding the Plame to a late showing film and because the limited critical reception to both pf these late films has had at least some high praise...
I think it's a fair bet that almost all (if not all) of the major awards will come from the above list. But as mentioned. These "heavy hitters' also have some issues. Different ones for different films...but issues nonetheless. To wit:
"Skin" and "Drive" have both been well received critically ("Skin" is at #1 on Ioncinema's compiled critical chart: http://www.ioncinema.com/images/cannes2011/day10part2.pdf) but both films are regarded as "genre" pictures and lacking as much "art" as Cannes is used to rewarding.
"The Artist" and "La Havre" are also critically well received but the knock on them "too light." Crowd pleasers for sure, so the thinking goes in some corners, but not enough heft to merit the top honor.
"Melancholia" In light of Von Trier's "Nazi week" and his status now as a Cannes "persona non grata," I'd be stunned that this jury decided to award it the Plame. The jury's makeup doesn't say to me "we will buck the negative reaction to reward the cinematic art of Von Trier." I don't see them separating the Von Trier's meanderings from the top award. Additionally, it's not like "Melancholia" was a cinch to win the Palme before Lars put his foot in his mouth.
"The Kid with a Bike" suffers from the fact that The Dardennes have won twice previously. Would this jury make them the first 3 time Palme winner in the history of the festival for this film?
"We Have to Talk About Kevin" from Lynne Ramsay. Early presentation may doom it. It was the first film to be presented in competition after the opening from Woody Allen. Also, if Tilda Swinton wins Best Actress (and many think she will) then that lessens the films chance at the Plame. Cannes does have a history of "spreading the wealth" between many films
And finally Malick's "The Tree of Life." A lot of people think its going to win. A lot of people don't. Again, I'm not sure that the makeup of this year's jury does Malick any favors. (the jury this year consists of: DeNiro, Uma Thurman, Jude Law, Olivier Assayas, Martina Gusman, Linn Ullmann, Johnnie To, Nansun Shi, and Mahamet-Saleh Haroun).
As I write rumors have begun floating that Tilda Swinton has won Best Actress and that Jean Dujardin has won Best Actor for "The Artist." We'll know soon.
In addition to the Palme, there's the Grand Prix (sort of like a second place) the jury prize, actor, actress, director and screenplay. The announcement is scheduled tentatively for about 2 hours from now.
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