Monday, September 22, 2014

The FAC: Major Categories Part 1-A/New Looks at.../Foreign Affairs

Good Monday everyone...


Last week, The Film Awards Clearinghouse laid out the first look at potential Oscar nominees from four major categories: Best Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor.  Today we'll add to that with the FAC analysis for the remaining four major categories: Best Supporting Actress and Actor as well as Best Adapted and Original Screenplay.

As always, The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar nominees:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold.


1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
2) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game
3) Laura Dern/Wild
4) Emma Stone/Birdman
5) Emily Blunt/Into the Woods
6) Katherine Waterston/Inherent Vice
7) Jessica Chastain/Interstellar
8) Jessica Chastain/A Most Violent Year
9) Carmen Ejogo/Selma
10) Anna Kendrick/Into the Woods

Comment:  Arquette seems to already be lock in the category.  The Telluride women: Knightley, Dern and Stone all appear to be in good shape but none of them cinches for a nomination yet.  There are a lot of women with a good shot to be one of the five nominees.  Another note, distributor A24 confirmed last week that J.C. Chandor's "A Most Violent Year" will open on Dec. 31 qualifying it for Oscar consideration for this year.  The buzz has been, however, that they will campaign Jessica Chastain in the lead category for that film.  Chastain has a slew of awards potential in both categories this year and the person that might benefit the most from this move might be...Jessica Chastain in Interstellar.


1) J.K Simmons/Whiplash
2) Edward Norton/Birdman
3) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
4) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood
5) Josh Brolin/Inherent Vice
6) Logan Lehrman/Fury
7) Tom Wilkinson/Selma
8) Robert Duvall/The Judge
9) Channing Tatum/Foxcatcher
10) Domhnall Gleeson/Unbroken


Both Simmons and Norton seem to be in good shape and very, very close.  Ruffalo is looking good but not assured.  After that, it's a free-for-all the rest of the way down the list (and we probably shouldn't rule out Tim Roth/Selma who sits just outside the list at #11).


1) Unbroken
2) The Imitation Game
3) The Theory of Everything
4) American Sniper
5) Inherent Vice
6) Gone Girl
7) Into the Woods
8) Wild
9) Men. Women and Children
10) The Fault in Our Stars


At this early point it appears that the five nominations will come from among the top six listed here.  The drop off between "Gone Girl" and "Into the Woods" is remarkably large in The FAC metric.  Also, none of the top six appear to be locks either.  Could be a fun category to track for the next few months.


1) Birdman
2) Boyhood
3) Foxcatcher
4) The Grand Budapest Hotel
5) Mr. Turner
6) Interstellar
7) A Most Violent Year
8) Fury
9) Selma
10) Whiplash


I was a little surprised to see "Birdman"sitting at the top of the list.  I had assumed that it would be "Boyhood".  Still, both of those films look solid for a nomination here.  "Foxcatcher" is in good shape and then after that it could be any of the remaining seven scripts in the top ten that end up with one of the last two nominations.

From these four categories, if The FAC is 100% accurate, TFF #41 films would grab nine nominations with an additional two possibilities.  Add that to the first FAC from last week that focused on the four major categories in which TFF #41 films are projected to have eleven nominations with another three possible.  Totals: 20 nominations in the Big Eight categories with another five in play.  Add to that the potential for "under the line" nominations and Foreign Language and Documentary possibilities and it appears that 2014 could well be another outstanding year for Telluride films come Oscar time.

Here's the breakdown of the 20 "nominations" and five possibles by film:

"Birdman" Noms: Best Picture, Best Direction, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay.  Total: Six nominations.

"The Imitation Game" "Noms": Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay.  Total: Four nominations and another possible for Best Direction.

"Foxcatcher" Noms: Best Picture, Best Direction, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay.  Total: Five nominations. Another possible nomination for Best Supporting Actor

"Wild" Noms: Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress and another possible for Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Mr. Turner": Noms for Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture if the category goes nine deep as it has the last two years. Also a possible for Best Direction.

"The Homesman": Possible nomination for Best Actress.


Clips from "Birdman".  Set for release on Oct. 17th, the P.R. machine is rumbling to life from Fix Searchlight.  As a part of that we have a clip from the film.  I have linked to the Rope of Silicon site which has the clip:

Clips from " '71"... From The Playlist, two clips from the Yann Demange directed film starring Jack O'Connell.  The film finished at #5 on MTFB's combined ratings.  The People had it at #6 while The Pros had it at #3.  Check the clips here:

And, a new poster for Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game" starring Benedict Cumberbatch.   The People's #1 film for TFF #41.

Accompanying the poster release, here's a brief story from Anne Thompson:


A couple of announcements about intentions for Foreign Language Oscar submissions.  Belgium will put forth The Dardennes Brothers' "Two Days, One Night" and Canada has chosen Xavier Dolan's "Mommy" both of which played at Telluride this year.  Stories about the selections are linked below:

More on Thursday...

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