Thursday, September 25, 2014

New History!/Post-Telluride: What the Tells Tell Us/The Playlist's 15 Films That Didn't Play/The Latest Feinberg Forecast

Welcome to Thursday...


Check out the second "page"of Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.  The Selected History of the Telluride Film Festival has been updated to include TFF #41.  Click on the page link above and stroll down memory lane.


Nearing a month removed from the Telluride Film Festival's 41st edition, I thought it was time to review some of things that I look for as I try to predict the fest and see what, if anything, they sowed us and if they continue to be methods that are useful to the analysis that consumes half the year on this blog.  For example, what distributors played in a big way.

Commonly represented distributors Sony Pictures Classics, Fox Searchlight, The Weinstein Company (and its Radius division), Roadside Attractions and Sundance Selects were all there with more than one film.   SPC led the way with seven films.  Here's the breakdown:

Sony Pictures Classics: "Mr. Turner", "Red Army", "Wild Tales", "Foxcatcher", "Merchants of Doubt", "Salt of the Earth", "Leviathan".

TWC/Radius: "The Imitation Game", "Escobar: Paradise Lost", "Keep On Keepin' On"

Roadside Attractions: "The Homesman", " '71", "Mommy"

Sundance Selects: "Two Days, One Night", "Seymour; An Introduction"

Fox Searchlight: "Wild", "Birdman"

Single film distributors this year:

Open Road: "Rosewater"
Kino Lorber: "The Decent One"
Zeitgeist: "Diplomacy"
Drafthouse: "The Look of Silence"
HBO Documentaries: "50 Year Argument"
Millenium: Madame Bovary

And there were five films without distribution at the fest:

"99 Homes" (which has since been picked up)
"Tales of the Grim Sleeper"
"Dancing Arabs"
"The Gate"
"The Price of Fame"

A total of 28 features played at TFF this year.

Among "The Usual Suspects" that played at this year's fest:

Errol Morris: "Three Short Films About Peace"
Alejandro Inarritu: "Birdman"
Mike Leigh: "Mr. Turner"
Bennett Miller "Foxcatcher"
Wim Wenders: "Salt of the Earth"
The Dardennes Brothers: "Two Days, One Night"
Joshua Oppenheimer: "The Look of Silence"
Martin Scorsese: "The 50 Year Argument"
Xaviet Beauvois: "The Price of Fame"
Ramin Bahrani: "99 Homes"

Some of the "Usuals" that did not play Telluride even though they had films:

Olivier Assayas/"Clouds of Sils Maria"
Rolf De Heer/"Charlie's Country"
Peter Bogdanovich/"She's Funny That Way"
Jason Reitman/ "Men, Women and Children"
Noah Baumbach/While We're Here
Lone Scherfig/"The Riot Club"
John Boorman/"Queen and Country"

The Festival Crossover...

Venice and Telluride shared four films this year: "99 Homes", "The Price of Fame", "The Look of Silence" and "Birdman".

Cannes and Telluride shared nine films this year: "Foxcatcher", "Mr. Turner", "Two Days, One Night", "Mommy", "The Homesman", "Wild Tales", "Leviathan", "Salt of the Earth" and "Red Army".

The Toronto Fest and Telluride shared 20 films this year:

" '71"
"The 50 Year Argument"
"99 Homes"
"Escobar: Paradise Lost"
"The Imitation Game"
"The Gate"
"The Look of Silence"
"Madame Bovary"
"Merchants of Doubt"
"Mr. Turner"
"Red Army"
"Seymour; An Introduction"
"Tales of the Grim Sleeper"
"Two Days, One Night"
"Wild Tales"

And, of course, Toronto's 2014 "premiere" policy and its subsequent listing of films allowed many more Telluride film followers to discern the films that were likely to play at Telluride.


"Suffragette"...maybe TFF #42?

The Playlist published a lengthy story this past week that focused on 15 films that were thought to have been real possibilities for one or more of the fall film fests but, for whatever reason, didn't play. Each film is accompanied by a list of expectations and a rationale for why it did not play as well as some speculation as to what may happen with it in the near future.  Included on their list are a number of films that, at one point or another,  were on my list as possible Telluride #41 choices.  Included on their list:

"Suite Francaise"
"Far from the Madding Crowd"
"Queen of the Desert"
Stephen Frears' Lance Armstrong film
"Slow West"

Check out the entire article here:

The Playlist analysis seems to imply that "Carol", "Suite Francaise", "Queen of the Desert" and "Suffragette" could play Telluride next year.  The post also suggests that a couple of other of the 15 films could make a T-rider play in 2015 as well.


The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg has updated his Oscar projections.  Feinberg's latest listing of Oscar predictions has Telluride #41 films in many categories.  If Feinberg is 100% accurate, these TFF #41 films will be nominated as follows:

In Best Picture: "The Imitation Game", "Foxcatcher" and "Birdman"
Best Director: Inarritu/Birdman
Best Actress: Witherspoon/Wild
Best Actor: Keaton/Birdman, Cumberbatch/Imitation Game, Carell/Foxcatcher
Best Supporting Actress: Knightley/Imitation Game, Dern/Wild, Stone/Birdman
Best Supporting Actor: Ruffalo/Foxcatcher, Norton/Birdman
Adapted Screenplay: Moore/Imitation Game
Original Screenplay:  Inarittu et. al./Birdman, Futterman and Frye/Foxcatcher, Leigh/Mr. Turner
Documentary: "Keep On Keepin' On, "Red Army"
Foreign Language Film: "Wild Tales", "Two Days, One Night"
Cinematography: "Birdman"
Costumes: "Mr. Turner"
Film Editing: "Birdman", "The Imitation Game"
Makeup/Hair: "Foxcatcher"
Original Score: "The Imitation Game"
Production Design: "Birdman", "The Imitation Game"

That puts "Birdman" with nine nominations.  "The Imitation Game" with seven.  Foxcatcher with five.  "Mr. Turner" and "Wild" with two apiece.  And it would mean 29 Telluride nominations with another nine categories still to come.

Telluride films that Scott lists as being "major threats" by category include:

Best Picture: "Wild" and "Mr. Turner"
Best Director: Miller/Foxcatcher and Leigh/Mr. Turner
Best Actress: Swank/The Homesman
Best Actor: Tatum/Foxcatcher, Spall/Mr. Turner
Best Supporting Actress: Bailey/Mr. Turner
Adapted Screenplay: Hornby/Wild
Original Screenplay: Szifron/Wild Tales
Documentary: "Salt of the Earth", "Tales of the Grim Sleeper", "Merchants of Doubt"
Foreign Language Film: "Mommy", "Leviathan"
Cinematography: "The Imitation Game", "Mr. Turner", "Wild"
Costumes: "The Homesman"
Film Editing: "Wild", "Foxcatcher"
Original Score: "The Homesman"
Production Design: "Mr. Turner"

So additional possibilities for nominations according to Feinberg are:

"Mr. Turner" with six possibilities, "Foxcatcher" with three possibilities, "Wild" with four possibilities, "The Homesman" with three possibilities and "The Imitation Game" with one possibility.

All categories included by Feinberg has a total of  23 possibilities.

Check Scott's full predictions here:

More on Monday...have a great weekend!

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