Here's the latest Film Awards Clearinghouse for the categories of Best Picture, Director, Actress and Actor.
The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar nominees:
Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
BEST PICTURE
1) Boyhood (2)
2) Birdman (3)
3) The Imitation Game (1)
4) The Theory of Everything (4)
5) Unbroken (5)
6) Whiplash (8)
7) Interstellar (6)
8) Gone Girl (7)
9) Selma (11)
10) Foxcatcher (9)
11) Mr. Turner (12)
12) American Sniper (10)
13) Into the Woods (13)
14) A Most Violent Year (19)
15) The Grand Budapest Hotel (15)
Hot: "Boyhood", "Whiplash", "Selma""A Most Violent Year".
Not: "American Sniper", "The Imitation Game"
Comment: AFI Fest screenings of "Selma" and "A Most Violent Year" are already having an effect. My feeling at this point is that we'll see "Interstellar" fade as well as "Gone Girl".
BEST DIRECTION
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1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood (2)
2) Alejandro G. Inarritu/Birdman (1)
3) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game (4)
4) Christopher Nolan/Interstellar (3)
5) Angelina Jolie/Unbroken (5)
6) David Fincher/Gone Girl (6)
7) Ava DuVernay/Selma (10)
8) Damien Chazelle/Whiplash (15)
9) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher (7)
10) Clint Eastwood/Sniper (8)
Hot: DuVernay and Chazelle and both are RED hot. If I was making book, I'd suggest that they might bump out Jolie, Nolan and Fincher.
Not: Miller and Eastwood.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice (1)
2) Reese Witherspoon/Wild (2)
3) Felicity Jones/ The Theory of Everything (3)
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl (4)
5) Amy Adams/Big Eyes (5)
6) Hilary Swank/The Homesman (6)
7) Emily Blunt/Into the Woods (7)
8) Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars (9)
9) Marion Cotillard/Two Days, One Night (11)
10) Jessica Chastain/A Most Violent Year (8)
Hot: Cotillard
Not: Chastain...mostly, I believe, as a result of the screening of the film at AFI Fest. The word from there is that it's a great supporting performance from Ms. Chastain. An interesting side note is that she has been the focal point of a tug of war. It appears that she has a contractual obligation in as far as "Interstellar" is concerned that has kept her from doing much promotion for "A Most Violent Year". Since she is supporting in that film as well, it'll be interesting to see how that all pans out as we go through the rest of Oscar season.
Other comment: At this point, I feel like the top four women are in good shape. That fifth spot is a doozy, though. I don't feel confident about Adams, Swank or Blunt. The fifth nominee could be a real surprise.
BEST ACTOR
1) Michael Keaton/Birdman (2)
2) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything (2)
3) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game (1)
4) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (4)
5) David Oyelowo/Selma (7)
6) Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner (5)
7) Oscar Issac/A Most Violent Year (14)
8) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper (8)
9) Jack O'Connell/Unbroken (6)
10) Jake Gyllenhall/Nightcrawler (13)
Hot: Oyelowo, Issac.
Not: Cumberbatch, O'Connell and Ralph Fiennes who falls out of the top ten.
Comment: Oyelowo has been edging up for a awhile and I have thought all along that Spall was vulnerable. Cumberbatch falls two spots but those top three are still tightly bunched. Issac has exploded into the conversation and I suspect we'll see a resurgence of O'Connell's fortunes as we get closer to "Unbroken's" actual release on Dec. 25.
BIRDMAN ASSAULT CONTINUES
The wave of promotional articles, spots and such has continued unabated as it expends into more markets and theaters. I hope to catch it again in Albuquerque over the Thanksgiving holiday. Below are interviews with Michael Keaton, Edward Norton and cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki:
http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/michael-keaton-reveals-the-birdman-scene-that-scared-him-the-most
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/watch-oscar-contenders-keaton-and-norton-dissect-acting-in-birdman-at-afi-fest-20141110
http://www.cinematographydb.com/2014/11/cinematography-birdman-emmanuel-lubezki-asc/
WILD
Jean Marc Vallee's "Wild" starring Reese Witherspoon is set to open on Dec. 5th. I have included a link to a story and clip about some of the most intense scenes in the film. From The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-new-clip-from-wild-reese-witherspoon-used-a-hypnotist-to-calm-her-nerves-to-shoot-sex-scenes-20141110
WILD TALES
Foreign Language Oscar hopeful and big Telluride hot "Wild Tales" director and writer Damian Szifron talked to Anne Thompson about the terrifically entertaining film and Anne posted that this week on her Thompson on Hollywood blog. Here that is:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/video/damian-szifron-talks-wild-tales
THE IMITATION GAME
The Hollywood Reporter, Variety and Anne Thompson with posts this week on TFF #41 films "The Imitation Game", "Foxcatcher" and "Leviathan":
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cracking-code-how-two-work-745734
FOXCATCHER
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http://variety.com/2014/film/news/steve-carell-foxcatcher-oscars-1201352920/
LEVIATHAN
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/russia-submits-leviathan-after-all-andrey-zvyagintsev-talks-20140929
MORE ON PAYNE
In my last post I wrote that we might see Alexander Payne's next project, "Downsizing" at Cannes and then Telluride in 2016. The film is said to star Matt Damon. The Playlist reported since Monday that the film is set for a 2016 release and that Payne would like to cast Alec Baldwin as well. The post also reveals that the Damon casting is likely but not set in stone. Check the post here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/alexander-payne-eyes-alec-baldwin-for-downsizing-with-matt-damon-says-film-will-arrive-in-2016-20141111
More on Monday...have a great weekend...
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