VENICE SCHEDULING CLUES
I have re-posted here the "Late-Breaking" post from Friday about the scheduling of films for Venice with some additional material added over the weekend...
Those of you that have followed this space for a few years know that a fairly strong overlap has developed over time between the Telluride and Venice fests. Last year no less than nine different films played both festivals including: First Man, Roma, The Favourite and The Front Runner. In 2017 they shared eight films including: The Shape of Water and Downsizing.
Venice opening night films that have moved on to play at Telluride in recent years have included:
2018- First Man
2017- Downsizing
2016- La La Land
2014- Birdman
2013- Gravity
2010- Black Swan
Over the past three years 23 films have played the Venice/Telluride connection and of them 19 were scheduled in the first four days of the Venice festival.
So, as you can see...there is a substantial connection.
And key to our ability to read the Venice tea leaves is scheduling. In order to make both Venice and Telluride films have to be either front loaded or back loaded at Venice in order to have time to make it to southwest Colorado. Further, the most sought after titles are front loaded as Venice will desire to world premiere them. That's why today's release of the screening schedule for Venice is interesting.
We think we know, for example, that Hirokazu Kore-eda's The Truth will be in Telluride and we also know that it is this year's opener for Venice on Aug. 28. That works. Other films that more or less confirm the theory are Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story which we think is playing Telluride and which Venice has scheduled for Aug. 29th. Laura Greenfield's documentary about Imelda Marcos is another film we think makes it to T-ride and its Venice screening date of Aug. 30th makes it possible.
All of that to get to this...there are four Venice films that aren't currently claimed by Toronto or New York that fit the profile:
James Gray's Ad Astra (Aug. 29)
Benedict Andrews' Seberg (Aug. 30)
Roman Polanski's J'accuse (Aug. 30)
Haifa al-Mansour's The Perfect Candidate (Aug. 29)
The theory of schedule dates indicate at least some chance of the Venice/Telluride double play is further under-girded by the screenings of Pablo Larrain's Ema and Todd Phillips' Joker on Aug. 31. Since we think we know from Toronto news that those two films will not play Telluride, it looks like Aug. 30th is our Venice cut off date this year.
So...
It feels to me like The Perfect Candidate and Seberg are the better bets for Telluride inclusion. You may remember that a couple of weeks back Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere said that he had been told that Ad Astra was NOT playing Telluride. So, despite its Telluride-friendly date at Venice...it's still "iffy" at best.
And, frankly, I'd be surprised if Polanski's film screens.
Three other Venice films that could conceivably make the grade are: No One Left Behind, Balloon and Madre.
Other nuggets...looks like we can scratch David Michod's The King from Telluride speculation as it is scheduled to screen initially in Venice on Sept. 2nd.
Here's the link to the Venice schedule.
LET'S TALK TRIBUTES
Just for fun...who, among the 17 films I have listed above as a Ten Bets film or a Bonus Bet...might be ripe for a Telluride Tribute in three weeks? Not every film has a great candidate for the honor. Some have more than one.
Ten Bets possibles...
Parasite-maybe director Joon-ho Bong
Portrait of a Lady on Fire- No one leaps out
Marriage Story- director Noah Baumbach, actress Scarlett Johansson, actress Laura Dern, actor Alan Alda
Motherless Brooklyn- director/writer/actor Edward Norton, actor Bruce Willis, actor Willem Dafoe, actor Alec Baldwin
Judy- actress Renee Zellweger
Uncut Gems- actor Adam Sandler
Pain and Glory- director/writer Pedro Almodovar was a Tribute recipient in 1988 but actor Antonio Banderas is eligible
The Two Popes- director Fernando Meirelles, actor Anthony Hopkins, actor Jonathan Pryce
Ford v. Ferrari- actor Christian Bale was a tribute recipient in 2017. Director James Mangold is a possibility as well as Bale's co-star Matt Damon...outside shot...writer/actor Tracy Letts
The Aeronauts-no one leaps out here
Bonus Bet possibles...
The Truth- director Hirokazu Kore-eda, actress Juliette Binoche, actor Ethan Hawke. Catherine Deneuve was tributed in 1999
Varda by Agnes- Varda was feted at Telluride in 1977
First Cow-director Kelly Reichardt
A Hidden Life- director/writer Terrence Malick, actor Matthias Schoenarts, actor Jurgen Prochnow.
The Report-outside shot-actress Annette Bening
Both Beanpole and The Kingmaker seem to lack candidates.
Now, I'll be honest. I have three pretty hot leads as to the tribute recipients. Only one of which is actually listed above and is, I think, a lock.
One of them is NOT listed above largely because it's a person that if I named, would seem, I think, odd enough to give it away and I'm not ready to do that yet.
The third is not a director or actor and of the three, the most "iffy" about at the moment.
Who would you like to see get the tribute? Who do you think will?
INDIEWIRE'S 30 OSCAR CONTENDERS (FALL FILM FESTS)
Indiewire's Zach Sharf posted an article last week called 30 Oscar Contenders at You Need to Know Going Into the Fall Film Festivals. Let's rundown what films are mentioned and if they will/could play at Telluride.
Start with the films Sharf says are likely TFF #46 titles. In the article he names:
Marriage Story
Ford v. Ferrari
First Cow
The Two Popes
Uncut Gems
A Hidden Life
Among the other films that Sharf does not specify for Telluride but that I feel are very probable are:
Pain and Glory
Motherless Brooklyn
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
The Report
The Truth
Varda by Agnes
Only two films listed still are in limbo regarding whether they play Telluride from this list of 30 and they are Ad Astra and Seberg...see Venice notes above.
The remaining 15 films all look as if they will not be playing Telluride: The Irishman, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Clemency, Joker, Just Mercy, The Goldfinch, Frankie. Dolemite Is My Name, Jojo Rabbit, The Laundromat, The Lighthouse, The Personal History of David Copperfield, The King, Wasp Network and Ema.
The complete story from Indiewire is linked here.
CURRENT TEN BETS AND BONUS BETS:
10) The Aeronauts
9) Ford v. Ferrari
8) The Two Popes
7) Pain and Glory
6) Uncut Gems
5) Judy
4) Motherless Brooklyn
3) Marriage Story
2) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
1) Parasite
Bonus 1) The Truth
Bonus 2) Varda by Agnes
Bonus 3) First Cow
Bonus 4) A Hidden Life
Bonus 5) The Report
Bonus 6) Beanpole
Bonus 7) The Kingmaker
DON'T FORGET TO PLAY...
For the eighth consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)
FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page
COMMENT TO THE BLOG
1 comment:
A very good morning Michael! Jim in Dallas here.....you helped my wife and I learn the ropes by answering many questions 3 years ago...we are hooked and have been going ever since. By no means I am I as qualified to make a guess on tributes. LOL.....As far as your lock....My guess is Laura Dern or Antonio Banderas. As far as the one not on the list.....or course knowing what is not on the list, even though Jeff Wells said it wasn't playing, I always thought Brad Pit would make a good tribute and has a good history with Telluride with A24, and you pointed out Astra's Venice has a friendly schedule. Keep up the great work....and I will keep reading every day! Hope to see you in the mountains!!!!
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