Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
I'm right on the cusp of MTFB's first set of Oscar nomination predictions. Those are coming Monday and will include the Big Eight categories: Picture, Direction, all four acting categories and both screenplay categories. Today, as a teaser, I thought I'd run down what feel like the chances for Telluride-specific Best Picture possibilities.
PROBABLE BP NOMINEES:
Anora
Emilia Perez
Conclave
POSSIBLE BP NOMINEES:
Saturday Night
September 5
MAYBE THEY GET IN:
A Real Pain
The Piano Lesson
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Nickel Boys
WAY OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Maria
The Apprentice
AND MY PERSONAL APPEAL:
Zarawski v. Texas
DISCLAIMER TRAILER
Apple TV+ has released a trailer for the Cate Blanchett starring, Alfonso Cuaron directed Disclaimer. The seven part series will premiere Oct. 11th. Here's the trailer from YouTube:
TRAILER AND POSTER FOR A REAL PAIN
CHARACTER POSTERS FOR EMILIA PEREZ
From Netflix this week, character posters for Karla Sofia Gascon, Zoe Saldana and Selena Gomez as their character's from Jacques Audiard's audacious Emilia Perez:
Well, here we are. 24ish hours from Telluride's big reveal for the 2024 SHOW. I'm driving somewhere in New Mexico as you read this. Here is your final list of "Bets" to make the SHOW:
1) Anora/Baker
2) Conclave/Berger
3) Emilia Perez/Audiard
4) The End/Oppenheimer
5) All We Imagine as Light/Kapadia
6) The Piano Lesson/Washington
7) Nickel Boys/Ross
8) Saturday Night/Reitman
9) Maria/Larrian
10) The Outrun/Fingscheidt
11) Bird/Arnold
12) Disclaimer/Cuaron
13) Separated/Morris
14) Better Man/Gracey
15) Piece by Piece/Neville
16) September 5/Fehlbaum
17) The Seed of the Sacred Fig/Rasoulof
18) The Friend/Siegel and McGeehee
19) Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight/Davitz
20) The Apprentice/Abassi
21) No Other Land/Adra, Ballal, Abraham and Szor
22) Leonardo DaVinci/Burns, Burns and McMahon
23) Memoir of a Snail/Elliot
24) Apocalypse in the Tropics/Costa
25) Misrecordia/Guiraudie
Other possibilities:
Santosh/Suri
Chain Reactions/Philippe
Homegrown/Premo
A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins
A Real Pain/Jesse Eisenberg
One on One: John and Yoko/ Macdonald and Rice-Edwards
Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance
Parthenope/Sorrentino
Hand of Dante/Schnabel
The Actor/Johnson
Last year I was 24/25 on the final bets.
Previous years of "Bets" track record:
2023: 24 of 25
2022: 24 of 25
2021: 24 of 25
2020: No fest
2019: 24 of 25
2018: 25 of 25
2017: 24 of 25
2016: 20 of 20
That's 165 0f 170 for a correct percentage of 97.05%
Come back tomorrow to see how I did.
EMILIA PEREZ TEASER/TRAILER (with english subtitles)
TIDBITS
A REMINDER OF POTENTIAL GUESTS
Anora: Sean Baker, Mikey Madison
Conclave: Edward Berger, Ralph Fiennes, John Lithgow, Stanley Tucci, Isabella Rossellini
Emilia Perez: Jacques Audiard, Zoe Saldana, Selena Gomez, Karla Sofia Gascon, Adriana Paz
The End: Joshua Oppenheimer, Tilda Swinton, Michael Shannon, George MacKay
The Piano Lesson: Malcolm Washington, Samuel L. Jackson, Danielle Dedwyler, John David Washington, Denzel Washington
The Apprentice: Ali Abassi, Sebastian Stan, Jeremy Strong
The Friend: Scott McGeehee, David Siegel, Carla Gugino, Naomi Watts, Bill Murray
Maria: Pablo Larrain, Angelina Jolie
Saturday Night: Jason Reitman, Gabriel LaBelle, Cooper Hoffman, Nicolas Braun, Jon Batiste
Bird: Andrea Arnold, Barry Keoghan, Frank Rogowski
Better Man: Robbie Williams
Disclaimer: Alfonso Cuaron, Cate Blanchett, Sasha Baron Cohen, Kevin Kline
The Outrun: Saoirse Ronan
Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight; Embeth Davitz
A Real Pain: Jesse Eisenberg, Kieran Culkin
TRIBUTES?
Here are what feel like your possibilities:
1) Saorise Ronan
2) Thelma Schoonover
3) Jason Reitman
4) Jacques Audiard
5) Samuel L. Jackson
6) Ralph Fiennes
7) Angelina Jolie
8) Denzel Washington
9) Michael Shannon
10) Naomi Watts
Alternatives: John Lithgow, Isabella Rossellini, Stanley Tucci
GUEST DIRECTOR???
I don't know what to tell you.
Multiple directors like last year? I don't feel that. That's an approach that the Fest took in anniversary years #40 and #50.
No Guest Director? Maybe. The Guest Director position hasn't always existed. Its inception was 1988. I just don't think that's likely.
A BIG NAME? Maybe. Spielberg? Scorsese? Nolan? If you wanted to make a big splash, holding that name for your official announcement would sure be a way to achieve that. Cautiously, that's where I'm going to place my money.
ANOTHER SUNDANCE TITLE?
I'm not saying it's in for TFF #51 but I've been seeing/hearing low level background noise about a possible play for Jesse Eisenberg's A Real Pain. I already think that The Outrun which played at Sundance is likely to screen at T-ride this weekend. So, is a second "big" Sundance film possible?
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-12TH EDITION
For the 12th year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com
The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.
I'll compile all of your responses and post those a few days after the festival.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2
Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social
MTFB's Facebook Page
MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays
If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com
Here's the penultimate set of "bets" regarding what films will be announced for the Telluride Film Festival a week from today.
Let me start today's list with a couple of notes. First, there's a reasonably good chance that 2-3 films won't be included in the program you pickup at Brigadoon. Over the last few years the festival has held back a few titles from the published program but then has added them as "sneaks". Last year, for example, TFF #50 had three "sneaks", The Taste of Things, They Shot the Piano Player and Totem. I had Piano Player at #22 on the final bets and The Taste of Things at #23.
Second note: I will post a "special" edition of MTFB next Wednesday, August 28th from the road as I'll be already headed to Telluride. It will be the final list of titles that I'm saying will play TFF #51 done 24 hours before the fests big reveal on Thursday. Of course, the regular Thursday post next week will be the official lineup announcement.
With that said, here's a refresher of last week's "Bets":
1) Anora/Baker
2) Conclave/Berger
3) Emilia Perez/Audiard
4) The End/Oppenheimer
5) All We Imagine as Light/Kapadia
6) The Piano Lesson/Washington
7) Nickel Boys/Ross
8) Saturday Night/Reitman
9) Misrecordia/Guiraudie
10) Piece by Piece/Neville
And a Bonus Ten Bets:
11) Separated/Morris
12) Better Man/Gracey
13) No Other Land/Adra, Ballal, Abraham and Szor
14) The Seed of the Sacred Fig/Rasoulof
15) The Friend/Siegel and McGeehee
16) Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight/Davitz
17) Maria/Larrain
18) Bird/Arnold
19) Disclaimer/Cuaron
20) Santosh/Suri
Other possibilities:
The Outrun/Fingsheidt
One on One: John and Yoko/ Macdonald and Rice-Edwards
Apocalypse in the Tropics/Costa
A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins
The Apprentice/Abassi
Chain Reactions/Philippe
Memoir of a Snail/Elliot
Homegrown/Premo
Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance
Leonardo DaVinci/Burns, Burns, McMahon
The Actor/Johnson
Parthenope/Sorrentino
Hand of Dante/Schnabel
And here's this week's:
1) Anora/Baker
2) Conclave/Berger
3) Emilia Perez/Audiard
4) The End/Oppenheimer
5) All We Imagine as Light/Kapadia
6) The Piano Lesson/Washington
7) Nickel Boys/Ross
8) Saturday Night/Reitman
9) Maria/Larrian
10) The Outrun/Fingscheidt
And a Bonus Ten Bets:
11) Bird/Arnold
12) Disclaimer/Cuaron
13) Separated/Morris
14) Better Man/Gracey
15) Piece by Piece/Neville
16) No Other Land/Adra, Ballal, Abraham and Szor
17) The Seed of the Sacred Fig/Rasoulof
18) The Friend/Siegel and McGeehee
19) Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight/Davitz
20) The Apprentice/Abassi
Other possibilities:
Santosh/Suri
Apocalypse in the Tropics/Costa
Misrecordia/Guiraudie
Chain Reactions/Philippe
Memoir of a Snail/Elliot
Homegrown/Premo
September 5/Fehlbaum
A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins
One on One: John and Yoko/ Macdonald and Rice-Edwards
Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance
Leonardo DaVinci/Burns, Burns, McMahon
The Actor/Johnson
Parthenope/Sorrentino
Hand of Dante/Schnabel
LOOKS AT THE PIANO LESSON
We're expecting Malcolm Washington's The Piano Lesson to screen at TFF next week. We're hoping that Samuel L. Jackson is along and we'd be really thrilled if producer Denzel Washington happened to show up as well. Actually...put Denzel on the possible guest list as well as potential tribute recipient.
Anyway, Netflix dropped a poster and a trailer for the film earlier this week. The poster is above. Here's the trailer from YouTube:
Meanwhile, Vanity Fair dropped some first look photos of the film on Monday. Here's a tease:
Hearing from good sources that Ali Abassi's The Apprentice, Nora Fingscheidt's The Outrun and Tim Fehlbaum's September 5 will appear at Telluride.
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-12TH EDITION
For the 12th year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com
The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.
I'll compile all of your responses and post those a few days after the festival.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2
Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social
MTFB's Facebook Page
MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays
If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com
Well, with what purports to be the last set of announced films for Toronto on Tuesday and the release of the Venice screening schedule on Monday, we have some shifting occurring in this week's Ten (Plus) Bets for TFF #51.
Here was last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) Anora/Baker
2) Conclave/Berger
3) Emilia Perez/Audiard
4) The End/Oppenheimer
5) All We Imagine as Light/Kapadia
6) The Piano Lesson/Washington
7) Nickel Boys/Ross
8) Misrecordia/Guiraudie
9) Better Man/Gracey
10) Piece by Piece/Neville
And a Bonus Ten Bets:
11) Dahomey/Diop
12) Grand Tour/Gomes
13) No Other Land/Adra, Ballal, Abraham and Szor
14) The Seed of the Sacred Fig/Rasoulof
15) The Friend/Siegel and McGeehee
16) Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight/Davitz
17) The Apprentice/Abassi
18) A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins
19) Maria/Larrain
20) Saturday Night/Reitman
Other possibilities:
Separated/Morris
Oh, Canada/Schrader
Flow/Zibalodis
Santosh/Suri
Megalopolis/Coppola
Allegorie Citadine/ Rohrwacher and JR
The Actor/Johnson
Parthenope/Sorrentino
Hand of Dante/Schnabel
Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance
Leonardo DaVinci/Burns
Memoir of a Snail/Elliot
One on One: John and Yoko/ Macdonald and Rice-Edwards
The Outrun/Fingscheidt and/or Blitz/McQueen
This week's Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) Anora/Baker
2) Conclave/Berger
3) Emilia Perez/Audiard
4) The End/Oppenheimer
5) All We Imagine as Light/Kapadia
6) The Piano Lesson/Washington
7) Nickel Boys/Ross
8) Saturday Night/Reitman
9) Misrecordia/Guiraudie
10) Piece by Piece/Neville
And a Bonus Ten Bets:
11) Separated/Morris
12) Better Man/Gracey
13) No Other Land/Adra, Ballal, Abraham and Szor
14) The Seed of the Sacred Fig/Rasoulof
15) The Friend/Siegel and McGeehee
16) Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight/Davitz
17) Maria/Larrain
18) Bird/Arnold
19) Disclaimer/Cuaron
20) Santosh/Suri
Other possibilities:
The Outrun/Fingsheidt
One on One: John and Yoko/ Macdonald and Rice-Edwards
Apocalypse in the Tropics/Costa
A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins
The Apprentice/Abassi
Chain Reactions/Philippe
Memoir of a Snail/Elliot
Homegrown/Premo
Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance
Leonardo DaVinci/Burns, Burns, McMahon
The Actor/Johnson
Parthenope/Sorrentino
Hand of Dante/Schnabel
NYFF SPOTLIGHT ANNOUNCMENT
The New York Film Festival announced the rest of the films playing in its Spotlight section yesterday and that offered up minimal clues regarding the TFF #51 lineup. It does appear the one more Venice selection will also play Telluride as NYFF labeled the documentary Apocalypse in the Tropics (dir: Petra Costa) without a premiere status. The film is slated to screen in Venice on Sept. 29th which would give it time to make it to T-ride. The IMDb description says the film...
"Focuses on how the evangelical movement paved the way for the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro and poses the threat of a national theocracy."
Sound familiar?
Otherwise three other films we thought were playing TFF #51 seem to be confirmed by their lack of premiere status: Maria, Emilia Perez and The Friend.
Back on Aug. 5th I wrote a bit about what folks might turn up at TFF#51 as guests based on some of the films that looked like they could or would play as a part of the fest.
Today I'm adding a few more possibilities:
Better Man: Robbie Williams
Disclaimer: Alfonso Cuaron, Cate Blanchett, Sasha Baron Cohen, Kevin Kline
The Outrun: Saoirse Ronan
Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight; Embeth Davitz
NEW POSTER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
We have the release on Tuesday of a second poster for Jason Reitman's Saturday Night. Here it is:
I'm pretty sure this is playing at TFF but I did see some references to a "world" premiere occurring in Toronto from some film media outlets on Tuesday. TIFF continues to list it as a Canadian Premiere which is reassuring regarding its Telluride status.
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-12TH EDITION
For the 12th year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com
The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.
I'll compile all of your responses and post those a few days after the festival.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2
Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social
MTFB's Facebook Page
MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays
If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com
The Venice Film Festival revealed its official screening schedule this morning. That's of note to Telluride watchers as films scheduled early in that fest could potentially be able to cross the Atlantic and get to the Rockies in time for screenings at TFF. Films scheduled after the first three days of Venice are essentially off the table.
Scheduled early enough to come to Telluride and that seem likely are:
Separated/Morris (8/29)
Disclaimer/Cuaron (8/29)
Maria/Larrain (8/29)
One to One: John and Yoko/Macdoanld and Rice-Edwards (8/30)
Babygirl/Reijn (8/30)
Notable films that look like they're scheduled too late to make T-ride:
Matt Belloni writing in his "What I'm Hearing" newsletter for Puck.com dropped this on Friday:
"...today’s trailer for Jason Reitman’s SNL origin story, Saturday Night, got me unexpectedly excited for fall festival movies. It’s playing Telluride, which I don’t attend, and TIFF..."
There's no sourcing on the statement but it seems pretty definitive. I'm looking for it to be confirmed as soon as Toronto announces its last set of titles this week.
Reitman's catalogue is replete with films that played T-ride starting with Juno in 2007. Also at Telluride: Up in the Air (2009), Labor Day (2013) and The Front Runner (2018).
Here's the poster and trailer:
WILL CUARON RETURN TO TELLURIDE?
Last Friday Toronto announced its Primetime Section devoted to television series that they will feature as a part of TIFF 2024. Among those listed was Alfonso Cuaron's mini-series for Apple+ titled Disclaimer. Why we note it here is that the show is listed as a Canadian premiere. That raised some eyebrows. Could that mean a play of some of the series at TFF #51?
It's possible. TFF has programmed television/series in the past famously including Twin Peaks in 1989, Red Riding in 2009 and recently (TFF #49) Russia 1985-1999. So it's not unprecedented that Telluride might be programming it. Also, Cuaron having screened both Gravity and Roma at past TFFs doesn't hurt its chances.
Here's the description from IMDb:
"Blanchett plays Catherine Ravenscroft, a successful and respected television documentary journalist whose work has been built on revealing the concealed transgressions of long-respected institutions. When an intriguing novel written by a widower, played by Kline, appears on her bedside table, she is horrified to realize she is a key character in a story that she had hoped was long buried in the past. A story that reveals her darkest secret. A secret she thought was hers alone."
Disclaimer is set to debut on Apple TV+ on Oct. 11th. Here's the teaser from YouTube:
GRAND TOUR LIKE OH, CANADA?
It's another one of those. Grand Tour was announced by New York without a premiere status leading me and others to believe that it would be a TFF selection. But then, Toronto announced it as a North American Premiere which indicates no Telluride play. Paul Schrader's Oh, Canada is also in that same situation and I'm inclined, at least at this point, to think that both play TIFF and neither plays Telluride.
Of course, I could be wrong.
WILL RASOULOF MAKE IT TO TELLURIDE?
We're pretty sure that Mohammad Rasoulof's The Seed of the Sacred Fig will be playing at TFF #51. What we don't know is if its writer/director will be present for the screenings. Variety reporting on Saturday that the Iranian filmmaker who successfully fled Iran isn't sure that he'll be able to travel outside of Europe.
"I plan to travel to the United States for film screenings. However, since I still don’t have a passport and have to travel with the documents provided with the help of the city of Hamburg, I wonder if I’ll be able to travel outside of Europe."
I'm no expert at international travel protocols but this sounds like a serious impediment. Nevertheless, I'll be crossing my fingers that he'll be able to find a way to make it .
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
X (TWITTER): @TheMTFB OR @Gort2
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