Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
Here are the latest nomination predictions for these five categories. These were last predicted on Nov. 25th. TFF #48 films are indicated in Bold. The film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Belfast (1)
2) Licorice Pizza (2)
3) King Richard (3)
4) Don't Look Up (5)
5) C'mon C'mon (4)
Alternates: Being the Ricardos and A Hero
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) The Power of the Dog (1)
2) The Lost Daughter (2)
3) CODA (3)
4) West Side Story (Alt.)
5) Nightmare Alley (4)
Alternates: Passing and Dune
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Dune (1)
2) Matrix Resurrections (2)
3) Eternals (3)
4) Spiderman: No Way Home (4)
5) Godzilla vs. King Kong (5)
Alternates: Free Guy and Don't Look Up
BEST SOUND
1) Dune (1)
2) No Time to Die (3)
3) West Side Story (2)
4) Nightmare Alley (Alt.)
5) Belfast (4)
Alternates: The Power of the Dog and Eternals
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1) Dune (1)
2) House of Gucci (3)
3) The Eyes of Tammy Faye (2)
4) Cruella (4)
5) Being the Ricardos (New)
Alternates: Nightmare Alley and King Richard
SOOOO...ABOUT NIGHTMARE ALLEY AND TELLURIDE
Many of you know that Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley was a film that I was hoping would make the TFF #48 lineup. Unfortunately that did not happen. The word in August and even prior to that was that the film wasn't ready so no Telluride and no Venice.
Then on Nov. 29th, Deadline.com had this little morsel in a story about the film:
That's right, a screening of Nightmare Alley somewhere associated with TFF. A little sleuthing and help from here and there and I discovered that the screening took place on Dec. 1 in San Francisco. So, although Nightmare Alley was not an official selection of TFF, it still managed to become the sneakiest of sneak previews.
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPOTING ACTING, SCORE, SONG, COSTUMES
Here's your update on the Supporting Acting races as well as Score, Song and Costumes. These predictions were last updated on Nov. 22nd. TFF #48 performances/films are indicated in Bold and their previous position in my predictions are indicated to the right in parentheses.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Caitriona Balfe/Belfast (1)
2) Kristen Dunst/The Power of the Dog (2)
3) Aujunue Ellis/King Richard (3)
4) Ruth Negga/Passing (4)
5) Anne Dowd/Mass (Alt.)
Alternates: Judi Dench/Belfast and Adriana DeBose/West Side Story. Note: Look out for up and comer Rita Moreno from West Side Story
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast (1)
2) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog (5)
3) J. K. SImmons/Being the Ricardos (3)
4) Jamie Dornan/Belfast (4)
5) Jared Leto/House of Gucci (Alt.)
Alternates: Jon Bernthal/King Richard and Ben Affleck/The Tender Bar
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1) Dune (1)
2) The Power of the Dog (2)
3) Spencer (3)
4) The French Dispatch (4)
5) Don't Look Up (5)
Alternates: Nightmare Alley and The Tragedy of Macbeth
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1) Be Alive/King Richard (1)
2) Not Time to Die/No Time to Die (2)
3) Down to Joy/Belfast (3)
4) Guns Go Bang/The Harder They Fall (4)
5) Just Look Up/Don't Look Up (New)
Alternates: So May We Start/Annette and Columbia Mi Encanto/Encanto
BEST COSTUME
1) Dune (2)
2) Cruella (1)
3) West Side Story (Alt.)
4) Spencer (3)
5) Nightmare Alley (4)
Alternates: Being the Ricardos and The French Dispatch
Here's an update for my predictions of the lead acting categories, cinematography, editing and production design for the 94th Academy Awards. As always, TFF #48 films/performers are in Bold. The last position for these predictions is indicated to the right in parentheses. These categories were last predicted on Nov. 18th.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Kristen Stewart/Spencer (1)
2) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos (Alt.)
3) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye (2)
4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter (5)
5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers (4)
Alternates: Lady Gaga/House of Gucci and Alana Haim/Licorice Pizza
BEST ACTOR
1) Will Smith/King Richard (1)
2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog (2)
3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM (4)
4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth (3)
5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Don't Look Up (New)
Alternates: Peter Dinklage/Cyrano and Clifton Collins/Jockey
Musical theater legend Stephen Sondheim has died. Reports were that the great Broadway songwriter died on Friday morning. Many of the remembrances over the weekend have made a point that Sondheim was a big fan of film and I'm happy to remind all that Sondheim guest-directed TFF in 2003. His presentation was a mini-retrospective of the works of Julien Duvivier. The retrospective consisted of three of Duvivier's films: Panique, La Belle Equipe and Carnet Du Bal. Sondheim also presented George Stevens' The More the Merrier for TFF #30.
In terms of his own film involvement, Sondheim was an Oscar winner for Original Song for Sooner or Later (I Always Get My Man) in 1991. He also was the co-screen writer (with Anthony Hopkins) of the 1973 film The Last of Sheila. Then, of course, there were the adaptations of so many of the musicals that he had been a part of including the upcoming re-imagining of West Side Story from Steven Spielberg.
Sondheim also won a Pulitzer Prize, eight Grammys and eight Tony awards as well as being a Kennedy Center Honors recipient in 1993.
As for me, my fascination with Sondheim began with a love affair with the Judy Collins recording of Send in the Clowns. I didn't even know that it was from the musical A Little Night Music at the time. Yet, later that year (1975), my first participation in a college production was as Asst. Prop Master for the production at the University of Oklahoma. Later in life (2010), A Little Night Music also provided what has been the most moving and transfixing moment I have ever experienced in a Broadway theater as I saw Bernadette Peters in her opening night performance sing the song.
Coincidentally, my little community theater here in the Oklahoma panhandle is prepping to do Into the Woods in February. My wife has had that on her wish list to direct for decades and we were to have done it a couple of years back...but then Covid-19 changed the world. It'll be a family affair with my daughter, grandkids and son-in-law joining me as cast members.
The word genius has been overused but in Sondheim's case, it's as close as we can come to finding a single word that can name the thing he was. As it is, genius isn't a big enough word to use but it's what we have.
MTFB UPDATES OSCAR PREDICITONS: PICTURE, DIRECTOR AND ANIMATED, DOCUMENTARY AND INTERNATIONAL FEATURES
Here's the MTFB latest update on predictions for Academy Award nominations for Best Picture and Best Director, International Feature, Animated Feature and Documentary Feature. These categories were last predicted here on Nov. 15th. As always TFF #48 films are indicate in Bold and the film's previous position is indicated to the right in parentheses.
BEST PICTURE
1) Belfast (1)
2) The Power of the Dog (2)
3) King Richard (4)
4) Dune (5)
5) Licorice Pizza (3)
6) Being the Ricardos (New)
7) West Side Story (7)
8) Nightmare Alley (6)
9) Spencer (9)
10) Don't Look Up (New)
Alternates: The Tragedy of Macbeth and tick, tick...BOOM
BEST DIRECTION
1) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast (1)
2) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog (2)
3) Denis Villenueve/Dune (3)
4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza (4)
5) Reinaldo Marcus Green/King Richard (New)
Alternates: Guillermo Del Toro/Nightmare Alley and Steven Spielberg/West Side Story
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) The Worst Person in the World/Norway (1)
2) A Hero/Iran (2)
3) Flee/Denmark (3)
4) The Hand of God/Italy (4)
5) Titane/France (5)
Alternates: Drive My Car/Japan and Compartment #6/Finland
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Flee (1)
2) Encanto (2)
3) The Mitchell's vs. the Machines (3)
4) Luca (4)
5) Belle (5)
Alternates: Raya and the Last Dragon and The Summit of the Gods
BEST DOCUMENTARY
1) Flee (1)
2) The Rescue (2)
3) Summer of Soul (3)
4) Procession (5)
5) Ascension (4)
Alternates: Faha Deyi and The Velvet Underground
INDIEWIRE'S INTERNATIONAL SHORT LIST
Indiewire's staff recently compiled a list of 15 films that they suggest are the most likely to be nominated for the Best International Feature Oscar on Feb. 8, 2022. TFF #48 hosted four of the 15 films:
Flee/Denmark
The Hand of God/Italy
A Hero/Iran
Unclenching the Fists/Russia
As you can see above, Flee, The Hand of God and A Hero are all included in my current predictions to be nominated. The Worst Person in the world and Titane, which I have also predicted for nominations are also included in the Indiewire 15.
MFTB OSCAR TAKE: PREDICITONS FOR SCREENPLAYS, VISUAL EFFECTS, SOUND AND HAIR/MAKEUP
Here are the latest nomination predictions for these five categories. These were last predicted on Nov. 11th. TFF #48 films are indicated in Bold. The film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.
Here's your update on the Supporting Acting races as well as Score, Song and Costumes. These predictions were last updated on Nov. 8th. TFF #48 performances/films are indicated in Bold and their previous position in my predictions are indicated to the right in parentheses.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Caitriona Balfe/Belfast (1)
2 Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog (2)
3) Aujunue Ellis/King Richard (3)
4) Ruth Negga/Passing (4)
5) Judi Dench/Belfast (Alt.)
Alternates: Ann Dowd/Mass and Marlee Matlin/CODA
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast (1)
2) Bradley Cooper/Licorice Pizza (2)
3) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos (New)
4) Jamie Dornan/Belfast (3)
5) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog (5)
Alternates: Jared Leto/House of Gucci and Ben Affleck/The Tender Bar
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1) Dune (1)
2) The Power of the Dog (2)
3) Spencer (3)
4) The French Dispatch (4)
5) Don't Look Up (5)
Alternates: Nightmare Alley and The Tragedy of Macbeth
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1) Be Alive/King Richard (1)
2) No Time to Die/No Time to Die (2)
3) Down to Joy/Belfast (3)
4) Guns Go Bang/The Harder They Fall (5)
5) Every Letter/Cyrano (Alt.)
Alternates: So May We Start/Annette and Columbia Mi Encanto/Encanto
BEST COSTUMES
1) Cruella (1)
2) Dune (2)
3) Spencer (3)
4) Nightmare Alley (4)
5) House of Gucci (5)
Alternates: West Side Story and The French Dispatch
MARCEL HAS A HOME
News that I've been waiting for arrived this past week with the announcement that A24 had acquired North American distribution rights to Dean Fleischer-Camp's Marcel the Shell with Shoes On. The film debuted at Telluride and topped my industry insiders and professionals poll that I do each year.
No word as yet what the release plans will be and if their is any agreement about an Oscar qualifying run but I, for one, hope there is.
MTFB OSCAR TAKE: LEAD ACTING, CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING AND PRODUCTION DESIGN
Here's an update for my predictions of the lead acting categories for the 94th Academy Awards. As always, TFF #48 performers are in Bold. The performers' last position in these predictions is indicated to the right in parentheses. These categories were last predicted on Nov. 4th.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Kristen Stewart/Spencer (1)
2) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye (2)
3) Lady Gaga/House of Gucci (3)
4) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers (Alt.)
5) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter (4)
Alternates: Frances McDormand/The Tragedy of Macbeth and Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos
BEST ACTOR
1) Will Smith/King Richard (1)
2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog (3)
3) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth (2)
4) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM (5)
5) Peter Dinklage/Cyrano (4)
Alternates: Clifton Collins/Jockey and Joaquin Phoenix/C'mon C'mon
BEST CINAMATOGRAPHY
1) Dune (1)
2) Belfast (3)
3) The Tragedy of Macbeth (2)
4) The Power of the Dog (4)
5) Nightmare Alley (Alt.)
Alternates: West Side Story and Spencer
BEST FILM EDITING
1) Belfast (1)
2) Dune (2)
3) The Power of the Dog (4)
4) King Richard (3)
5) Nightmare Alley (5)
Alternates: West Side Story and Don't Look Up
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Dune (1)
2) Nightmare Alley (2)
3) The French Dispatch (3)
4) West Side Story (4)
5) The Tragedy if Macbeth (5)
Alternates: The Power of the Dog and Belfast
TRAILER FOR ENCOUNTER
Riz Ahmed stars in this story of two brothers who embark on a journey, who is trying to protect them from an alien threat. From director Michael Pearce and Amazon Studios. Encounter will be released Dec. 10th.
MTFB'S OSCAR TAKE: PICTURE, DIRECTION, INTERNATIONAL, ANIMATED AND DOCUMENTARY UPDATED
Here's the MTFB latest update on predictions for Academy Award nominations for Best Picture and Best Director, International Feature, Animated Feature and Documentary Feature. These categories were last predicted here on Nov. 11th. As always TFF #48 films are indicate in Bold and the film's previous position is indicated to the right in parentheses.
BEST PICTURE
1) Belfast (1)
2) The Power of the Dog (2)
3) Licorice Pizza (6)
4) King Richard (3)
5) Dune (4)
6) Nightmare Alley (5)
7) West Side Story (7)
8) The Tragedy of Macbeth (9)
9) Spencer (8)
10) CODA (10)
Alternates: tick, tick...BOOM and C'mon C'mon
BEST DIRECTION
1) Belfast/Brannagh (1)
2) The Power of the Dog/Campion (2)
3) Dune/Villenueve (3)
4) Licorice Pizza/Anderson (4)
5) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro (5)
Alternates: Spencer/Larrain and West Side Story/Spielberg
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) The Worst Person in the World/Norway (1)
2) A Hero/Iran (2)
3) Flee/Denmark (3)
4) The Hand of God/Italy (4)
5) Titaine/France (5)
Alternates: Drive My Car/Japan and Compartment #6/Finalnd
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Flee (1)
2) Encanto (3)
3) The Mitchell's vs. The Machines (2)
4) Luca (4)
5) Belle (5)
Alternates: Raya and the Last Dragon and The Summit of the Gods
The Hollywood Reporter's Tyler Coates has collected a list of 30 films that he suggests are in the running for a Best Picture nomination. In alphabetical order, here are the TFF #48 films that Coates has on the list:
Belfast
The Card Counter
C'mon C'mon
Cyrano
Flee
The French Dispatch
The Hand of God
A Hero
King Richard
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Red Rocket
Spencer
That's 13 of the 30 films on Coates' list. That's amazing and is an indication of how stunning the Telluride curation was for TFF #48.
LATEST OSCAR PREDICITONS ON FIVE CATEGORIES FROM MTFB'S OSCAR TAKE
Here's your latest Oscar predictions for Screenplay writing from MTFB. These categories were last updated here on Oct. 28th. In addition, here are first predictions for Visual Effects, Sound and Makeup and Hair. TFF #48 films are in Bold.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Belfast (1)
2) Licorice Pizza (2)
3) King Richard (4)
4) C'mon C'mon (3)
5) Don't Look Up (5)
Alternates: Mass and Spencer
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) The Power of the Dog (1)
2) The Lost Daughter (3)
3) CODA (4)
4) Nightmare Alley (2)
5) Passing (New)
Alternates: Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth and West Side Story
VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Dune
2) The Matrix Resurrections
3) Eternals
4) Spiderman: No Way Home
5) Don't Look Up
Alternates: Godzilla Vs, King and Free Guy
SOUND
1) Dune
2) West Side Story
3) No Time to Die
4) Belfast
5) The Power of the Dog
Alternates: Nightmare Alley and Eternals
MAKEUP AND HAIR
1) Dune
2) The Eyes of Tammy Faye
3) House of Gucci
4) Cruella
5) Spencer
Alternates: The French Dispatch and Being the Ricardos
That's all 20 of the Feature categories. Currently MTFB's Oscar Take predicted nominations for TFF #48 films:
Belfast Total-11 and 1 other alternate: Picture, Direction (Branagh), Supporting Actress (Balfe), Supporting Actress (Dench), Supporting Actor (Hinds), Supporting Actor (Dornan), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Song, Sound. Alternate: Production Design
The Power of the Dog- Total 10 with 1 other alternate: Picture, Direction (Campion) , Actor (Cumberbatch), Supporting Actress (Dunst), Supporting Actor (Smit-McPhee), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Sound. Alternate: Production Design)
King Richard Total-6 and 1 other alternate: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing and Song. Alternate: Director (Green)
Spencer Total- 4 and 3 alternates: Picture, Actress (Stewart), Score, Costumes. Alternates: Direction (Larrain), Original Screenplay and Cinematography.
Flee Total-3 and 1 alternate: International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature. Alternate: Picture.
The French Dispatch Total- 2 and 2 alternates: Production Design and Score. Alternates: Costume and Make/Hair.
The Lost Daughter Total- 2: Actress (Colman), Adapted Screenplay.
C'mon C'mon Total- 1 and 1 alternate: Original Screnplay. Alternate: Actor (Phoenix)
The Rescue Total- 1 and 1 alternate: Documentary Feature. Alternate: Song
A Hero Total- 1: International Feature
The Hand of God Total- 1: International Feature
Procession Total 1- Documentary Feature
Total TFF #48 nominations- 43 with 11 Alternate possibilities. That's a stunning number if it holds true.
Longtime actor Dean Stockwell died earlier this week. The actor was 85.
Stockwell was a guest at the 11th Telluride Film Festival in 1984 attending as a part of the entourage in support of Wim Wenders Paris, Texas. He was Oscar nominated in 1988 for Best Supporting Actor in Jonathan Demme's Married to the Mob. He was also a four time Emmy nominee for his role as Al Calavicci in Quantum Leap. He also twice won Best Actor at the Cannes Film Festival; the first in 1959 for Compulsion and the second in 1962 for Long Day's Journey Into Night. His most recent IMDb credit is from 2015.
I saw Stockwell in Santa Fe, NM in 1980 as part of a tribute to D.H. Lawrence. Stockwell had been invited to be a part of the troupe that presented a 2 1/2 hour retrospective of Lawrence's work primarily due to his role in Jack Cardiff's 1960 adaptation of Lawrence's Sons and Lovers.
Among other performers on stage that evening were Ian McKellen, Jane Alexander, Tony Randall and Elizabeth Taylor. Stockwell was a standout among the high-powered crew.
NEW TRAILER FOR C'MON C'MON
A24 has released a second official trailer for Mike Mills' C'mon C'mon starring Joaquin Phoenix. Here that is from YouTube:
EUROPEAN FILM AWARDS NOMINATE TELLURIDE FILMS
The EFA nominations were announced earlier this week. All told TFF films earned nine nominations. Florian Zeller's TFF #47 listed film earned four: Best European Film, Best Direction, Best Actor and Best Screenwriter.
TFF #48's The Hand of God also earned three noms: Best European Film, Best Direction and Best Screenwrier.
Flee, also a TFF #48 entrant, was nominated for Best European Animated Feature and Best Documentary.
