Thursday, January 22, 2009

Oscar Clearinghouse #11...No Love for TDK

Pardon the expression, but HOLY CRAP BATMAN! It's a dark day for The Dark Knight!

After what seemed to be a tsunami of buzz that The Dark Knight would break new ground and grab a Best Pic nom...boy did it get SNUBBED this morning or what??? No Best Pic or Director or Screenplay...WOW. And the beneficiary, clearly The Reader...which got all of those plus Kate Winslet in Best Actress not Supporting...

And, as is often the case, I don't seem to be nearly as smart as I think I am... The only categories I got 100% right...Film Editing and Visual Effects....Missed at least one in every other category that I picked (18 categories all together)....Geeeez!

Here's the link to the official nominees page:

And the notes from this morning by category...

Best Pic: TDK out, The Reader in...actually, if you were paying attention this morning and saw that Winslet was not a nominee for Supporting...that was the first sign that things might get weird...Both the chart and I go for 4 for 5.

Best Director: Again...Nolan/TDK out and Stephen Daldry/Reader in...although the Best Pic and Directors match 5 for 5 and that's fairly rare. Again the chart and I both go 4 for 5.

Best Actor...I was 4 for 5 here missing Pitt as I thought there was enough support for Eastwood to get him a nomination here. The chart was 4 for 5 as well.

Best Actress: I go 4 for 5 here missing the movie that Winslet gets nominated for...otherwise pleased that I picked Melissa Leo to get a nom and she did. The chart gets 3 for 5...and my thought that the Telluride threesome of Hawkins, Thomas and Blanchett wouldn't be in the money proved to be right.

Best Supporting Actor: Both myself and the chart go 4 for 5...but I missed with my pick of Dev Patel (thought the Slumdog momentum would be enough) and the charts had James Franco in Milk...instead...Michael Shannon for Rev Road...who was a front runner earlier in the season gets Rev Road's only major nomination.

Best Supporting Actress: I go 4 for 5. The chart does too. We both miss Winslet sliding up to the lead category...I got Amy Adams...the chart got Taraji P. Henson

Adapted Script: Again no TDK and yes for The Reader...Charts and I go 4 for 5.

Original Script: I go 3 for 5 in what many thought was the toughest category to pick. The chart was also 3 for 5...We both missed Frozen River and In Bruges.

Other stuff...I was surprised Waltz with Bashir was NOT an animated film nominee

Slumdog gets 2 Best Song noms...and there are only 3 songs nominated...really?

Telluride connections go like this as best as I can tell this morning:

13 for Button

10 for Slumdog

4 others: Waltz with Bashir and Revanche (Foreign), Encounters at the End of the World (TFF 2007/Documentary and a shout out to my bus buddy Werner Herzog). New Boy (Live Action Short)... For a total of 27. Now on to Feb 22 and the winners!

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Oscar Clearinghouse # 10...Last Call!

Less than 24 hours from nomination announcements and here is the last post prior to that. I have checked the charts one last time and compiled the information from: The Envelope (LA Times), And the Winner Is, Everything Oscar, In Contention, Gurus of Gold (Movie City News), Awards Circuit, Film Experience, Film Misery and The Oscar Guy. Here's what they tell us and my guesses going into tomorrow morning's announcement...


Best Picture: Slumdog, Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Dark Knight are the cumulative chart picks...Doubt and Wall-E are your best chances at an upset. My picks mirror the 5 from the charts.

Best Director: Boyle/Slumdog, Fincher/Button, Van Sant/Milk, Howard/Frost/Nixon, Nolan/Dark Knight. The charts now point to Darren Aronofsky/The Wrestler as the ONLY chance at a surprise in this category. My picks are the charted 5. And this would be a relatively rare case of the 5 Best Picture nominees matching the 5 directing nominees.

Best Actor: Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Langella/Frost/Nixon, Eastwood/Gran Torino, Jenkins/The Visitor... I've been pointing at these 5 for a while now. I've thought for quite some time that Brad Pitt was going to miss out and the charts say that now as well. I agree with the charted 5 and in addition to Pitt being a possible "surprise" also add Leonardo DiCaprio...

Beat Actress: The charted 5 get messy after the first 3. Streep/Doubt, Winslet/Rev Road and Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married seem certain. The last two spots chart-wise at this point go to Jolie/Changeling and Hawkins/Happy-Go-Lucky. Melissa Leo and Cate Blanchett would be your "surprises". My picks are Streep, Hathaway, Winslet, Jolie and Leo/Frozen. I've thought for some time that the Telluride trio of Blanchett, Hawkins and Thomas would be shut out and I still think that's likely.

Best Supporting Actor: Ledger/Dark Knight, Brolin/Milk, Hoffman/Doubt, Downey, jr./Tropic Thunder, and Franco/Milk. "surprise" nominees: Michael Shannon and Dev Patel. My guess is that Patel knocks Franco out of the nominations and the rest of the charted four remain your nominees.

Best Supporting Actress: Charts say: Cruz,/VC Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Tomei/Wrestler, Henson/Button and Winslet/Reader..."surprise"...Amy Adams or Rosemarie DeWitt...My guess...Cruz, Davis, Winslet, Tomei and Adams bumping out Henson

Original Script: Charts say: Milk, Rachel Getting Married, VC Barcelona, Wall-E, and Happy-Go-Lucky. Surprises...The Visitor, The Wrestler, Burn After Reading. I think this is the hardest category to call this year. Especially since the WGA announced their nominees in the category. My picks (staying with what I've said before) remain: Milk, VC Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler and Happy-Go-Lucky.

Adapted Script: Charts: Slumdog, Button, Frost/Nixon, Doubt, The Dark Knight. Possible stunners: The Reader, Revolutionary Road. My picks are the chart (as was the pick for the WGA noms).


Art Direction: Charts: Button, Dark Knight, Australia, Changeling, The Reader.

My Picks: Button, Dark Knight, Changeling, Doubt, Milk

Cinematography: Charts: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Rev Road, Australia

My Picks: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Rev Road, The Reader

Costumes: Button, The Duchess, Rev Road, Changeling, Australia

My Picks: Button, Duchess, Rev Road, Changeling, Milk

Film Editing:Charts: Slumdog, Button, Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk

My Picks: Ditto

Score: Charts: Button, Slumdog, Wall-E, Milk, Rev Road

My Picks: Button, Slumdog, Wall-E, Milk, Dark Knight

Song: Wrestler, Wall-E, Slumdog, Bolt, Cadillac Records

My Picks: Wrestler, Wall-E, Slumdog, Bolt, Gran Torino

Sound Editing: Charts: Wall-E, Iron Man, Dark Knight, Button, Quantum of Solace

My Picks: Ditto (but come on Slumdog!)

Sound Mixing: Iron Man, Wall-E, Dark Knight, Button, Slumdog

My Picks: Iron Man, Dark Knight, Quantum of Solace, Wall-E, Slumdog

Make Up: Charts: Button, The Reader, Synecdoche NY

My Picks: Button, The Reader, Dark Knight

Visual Effects: Charts: Button, Iron Man, Dark Knight

My Picks: Ditto

Overall the Charts say:

Button 13 noms, Dark Knight 10, Slumdog 8, Milk 8, Frost/Nixon 5, Doubt 4 and The Wrestler 3

My Predictions: Button 12, Dark Knight 12, Slumdog 9, Milk 9, Doubt 6, Frost/Nixon 5 and The Wrestler 4.

Telluride gets 21 or so from Button and Slumdog and adds another 2 for Waltz with Bashir (Animation and Foreign) plus another Foreign (Everlasting Moments)...for a truly stunning showing at Oscar time...

Can't wait for tomorrow morning...

Friday, January 16, 2009

Oscar Clearinghouse #9 Jan. 16...Tech!

Here are the compilations of charts for the 10 technical categories using data from In Contention, Awards Circuit, Film Experience and The Oscar Guy. Also included are Guild nominations where always Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD:

Art Direction: BUTTON, Dark Knight, Australia, Changeling, The Reader

Lurkers (with a prayer): Revolutionary Road, Indiana Jones 3, Doubt

Guild Notes: Art Director's Guild Noms:

Period Art Direction: Changeling, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Milk

Fantasy Art Direction: The Dark Knight, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Iron Man, The Spiderwick Chronicles, Wall-E.

Comment: Button, Dark Knight and Changeling seem sure bets. Doubt is probable. Give the last spot to Milk.

Winner: Button

Cinematography: SLUMDOG, The Dark Knight, BENJAMIN BUTTON, Revolutionary Road, Australia.

Lurkers: The Reader, Milk, Defiance

Guild Notes: American Society of Cinematographers:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire.

Comment: Follow the Guild and replace Australia with The Reader for your nominations.

Winner: Slumdog

Costumes: BUTTON, The Duchess, Revolutionary Road, Changeling, and Australia.

Lurkers: The Other Boleyn Girl and Brideshead Revisited

Guild Notes: Costume Designers Guild:

Period Costume Design: Changeling, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Duchess, Milk, Revolutionary Road

Fantasy Costume Design: The Dark Knight, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor

Contemporary Costume Design: Iron Man, Mamma Mia!, Sex and the City, Slumdog Millionaire, The Wrestler

Comment: Button, Duchess, Rev Road, and Changeling are pretty good bets...The 5th spot...let's say: Milk

Winner: The Duchess

Film Editing: SLUMDOG, BUTTON, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk

Lurkers: Iron Man, The Reader

Guild Notes: American Cinema Editors Society:

Drama Film Editing: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire

Comedy/Musical Film Editing: In Bruges, Mamma Mia, Tropic Thunder, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E

Comment: The chart should lead you to the five nominees.

Winner: Slumdog

Score: BUTTON, SLUMDOG, Wall-E, Milk, Revolutionary Road.

Lurkers: Defiance, Indiana Jones 3, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, The Dark Knight.

Comment: I think Dark Knight replaces Rev Road for the nominees.

Winner: Button

Song: The Wrestler, Wall-E, SLUMDOG, Bolt, Cadillac Records

Lurking: Gran Torino, Hamlet 2, Quantum of Solace

Comment: I think the compiled charts get the first four right and that the 5th spot is a real tussle between Cadillac and Gran Torino...I lean toward Gran Torino for the fifth nomination.

Winner: The Wrestler/Springsteen

Sound Editing: Wall-E, Iron Man, Dark Knight, BUTTON, Quantum of Solace

Lurking: Indiana Jones 3, Defiance, SLUMDOG, Valkyrie

Comment: I will default to the chart...but this note: If Slumdog is really steaming along, I wouldn't be all that surprised at another nomination in this category.

Winner: Iron Man

Sound Mixing: Iron Man, Wall-E, Dark Knight, BUTTON, SLUMDOG.

Lurking: Quantum of Solace, Defiance

Guild Nominations: Cinema Audio Society:

Sound: The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Quantum of Solace, Slumdog Millionaire, Wall-E

Comment: Go with the Guild here...

Winner: Iron Man

Make-Up: BUTTON, The Reader, Synecdoche, NY

Lurking: Dark Knight, Hellboy II, Tropic Thunder, The Wrestler

Winner: Button

Visual Effects: BUTTON, Iron Man, Dark Knight

Lurking: Hellboy II, Journey to the Center of the Earth, Australia

Winner: Button

The combined charts say the nomination totals are as follows:

Benjamin Button 13

The Dark Knight 10

Slumdog and Milk 8

Frost/Nixon and Wall-E 5

Doubt 4

The Wrestler, Rev Road, The Reader, Changeling, Australia, and Iron Man 3

Total Telluride nominations excluding Doc, Short Doc and Foreign (which could be 3 more): 24

And finally: If you've read the previous posts you know that I'm guessing that Button loses at least one or two of it's charted nominations and Slumdog picks up one or my prediction is 12 for Button and 9 for Slumdog...Also, I expect Waltz with Bashir to be a certain Foreign nominee and likely Everlasting Moments as well. Revanche is probably unlikely.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Oscar Clearinghouse # 8 Post Golden Globes Jan. 15


The Golden Globes are done and the list of Foreign film finalists have been annouBoldnced (much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth again this word: Gomorra).

Here is the the list for Foreign Film: (Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD)

Austria, REVANCHE (dir. Gotz Spielmann)
Canada, The Necessities of Life (dir. Benoit Pilon)
France, The Class (dir. Laurent Cantet)
Germany, The Baader Meinhof Complex (dir. Uli Edel)
Israel, WALTZ WITH BASHIR (dir. Ari Folman)
Japan, Departures (dir. Yojiro Takita)
Mexico, Tear This Heart Out, (dir. Roberto Sneider)
Sweden, EVERLASTING MOMENTS (dir. Jan Troell)
Turkey, 3 Monkeys (dir. Nuri Bilge Ceylan)

Golden Globe Winners: (Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD)

Picture, Musical or Comedy: "Vicky Cristina Barcelona."
Actor, Drama: Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler."
Actress, Drama: Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road."
Actor, Musical or Comedy: Colin Farrell, "In Bruges."
Actress, Musical or Comedy: SALLY HAWKINS, "HAPPY-GO-LUCKY."
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight."
Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet, "The Reader."
Foreign Language Film: "WALTZ WITH BASHIR."
Animated Film: "Wall-E."
Original Song: "The Wrestler" (Bruce Springsteen)

On to the compilation of the Oscar Guessperts. (Includes: The L.A. Times Envelope, And the Winner Is, Everything Oscar, In Contention, Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, Awards Circuit, The Film Experience, Film Misery, and The Oscar Guy):

Best Picture: SLUMDOG MILLIONARIE, BENJAMIN BUTTON, Milk, Frost/Nixon, The Dark Knight.
Lukring: Doubt,Wall-E, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler, The Reader.
Comment: The 10 films in the lead stay the same. The only change is a switch in positons between Milk and Frost/Nixon. These top 5 get the nominations. The spoiler is Wall-E.

Direction: DANNY BOYLE/SLUMDOG, DAVID FINCHER/BUTTON, Gus Van Sant/Milk, Christopher Nolan/Dark Knight, Ron Howard/Frost/Nixon.
Lurking: Darren Aronofsky/Wrestler, Woody Allen/VC Barcelona, Jonathan Demme/Rachel, Sam Mendes/Rev Road, Steven Daldry/Reader.
Comment: Woody Allen makes a substantial move...up 2 spots. Revolutionary Road continues it's slide with Sam Mendes dropping 2 spots. Daldry returns to the list. Again, these top 5 are your nominees. There is always the possibility that the Academy has one of those years where the direction nominees and Best Picture vary by one...and that might open the door for Aronofsky, Allen or Demme.

Actor: Sean Penn/Milk, Frank Langella/Frost/Nixon, Mickey Rourke/The Wrestler, Richard Jenkins/The Visitor, Clint Eastwood/Gran Torino.
Lurking: BRAD PITT/BUTTON, Leonardo DiCaprio/RevRd, Josh Brolin/W, Benicio Del Toro/Che, Dustin Hoffman/Last Chance Harvey.
Comment: Minimal movement in this category. The top 5 are your nominees. I'd be surprised at this point if Pitt were able to sneak back into the mix.

Actress: Meryl Streep/Doubt, Anne Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married, Kate Winslet/Revolutionary Road, Angelina Jolie/Changeling, SALLY HAWKINS/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.
Lurking: Melissa Leo/Frozen River,CATE BLANCHETT/BUTTON, KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS/LOVED YOU SO LONG, Kate Beckinsale/Nothing but the Truth, Michelle Williams/Wendy & Lucy.
Comment: Again, no major movement. I think that Melissa Leo sneaks in and Sally Hawkins misses out.

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger/The Dark Knight, Philip Seymour Hoffman/Doubt, Josh Brolin/Milk, Robert Downey, Jr./Tropic Thunder, and James Franco/Milk.
Lurking: DEV PATEL/SLUMDOG, Michael Shannon/Rev Road, EDDIE MARSAN/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, Ralph Fiennes for both The Duchess and The Reader.
Comment: The only substantial drop is Fiennes for The Reader, down 2 spots. Keep the first four and swap Patel for Franco is my guess on the nominees.

Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz/VC Barcelona, Viola Davis/Doubt, Kate Winslet/The Reader, TARAJI P. HENSON/BENJAMIN BUTTON, and Marisa Tomei/The Wrestler.
Lurking: Amy Adams/Doubt, Rosemarie DeWitt/Rachel, Kathy Bates/Rev Road, Debra Winger/Rachel, TILDA SWINTON/BENJAMIN BUTTON.
Comment: Swinton appears for the first time. My guess is Amy Adams in and Taraji Henson out.

Adated Screenplay: SIMON BEAUFOY/SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, ERIC ROTH/BENJAMIN BUTTON, John Patrick Shanley/Doubt, Peter Morgan/Frost/Nixon, and the Nolan Brothers/The Dark Knight.
Lurking: The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Defiance, Gomorra, and Iron Man????
Comment: Dark Knight jumps up 2 spots (thanks WGA nom), Revolutionary Road down 2 and Iron Man appears on a couple of lists for the first time....really! My nom guesses are the top 5 listed here.

Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black/Milk, Woody Allen/VC Barcelona, Janet Lumet/Rachel Getting Married, Andrew Stanton/Wall-E, MIKE LEIGH/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.
Lurking: The Wrestler, The Visitor, Gran Torino, Burn After Reading, Changeling.
Comment: Again...not a lot of movement. And your guess is as good as anyone's. Taking a shot, I'm going with: Milk, Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler and least for today...Rachel maybe......The Visitor...maybe.


Noms: Wall-E, Kung Fu Panda, WALTZ WITH BASHIR.
Lurking: Bolt, Horton Hears a Who
Comment: The top 3 are your nominees!

Underview: Milk leads with 6 "Big 8" noms on the charts...
Button, Frost/Nixon, Doubt and Dark Knight each have 4
Slumdog has 3

The combo of noms and lurking shows:
Button and Rev Road with 7 (although Winslet now looks to be the only nom in the Big 8 categories), Milk and Doubt with 6, Wrestler, Rachel and Reader with 5, and Slumdog, Frost/Nixon and Dark Knight with 4.

I will try to post a compilation of Tech awards projections tomorrow and also predict total nominations for the major players. Also, I'll probably try to get one more post in before Oscar nominations are announced on the morning of Jan. 22....

Friday, January 9, 2009

Oscar Clearinghouse #7 Jan. 9, 2009 Post Guilds

Danny Boyle directing Slumdog Millionaire. Jan. 22 will be a big day for him!

The last of the guild noms are in. The DGA announced their five nominees yesterday so with the WGA, PGA and SAG...the picture seems to be clearing.

Slumdog: WGA, DGA,PGA and SAG: Cast and Patel/Supporting.

Button: WGA, DGA, PGA, and SAG: Cast, Pitt/Lead, Henson/Supporting

Frost/Nixon: WGA, DGA, PGA and SAG: Cast, Langella/Lead

Dark Knight: WGA, DGA, PGA and SAG: Ledger/Supporting

Milk: WGA, DGA, PGA and SAG: Cast, Penn/Lead, Brolin/Supporting

Doubt: WGA, SAG: Cast, Streep/Lead, Hoffman/Supporting, Adams/Supporting,Davis/Supporting

It's hard to believe that Doubt may get as many as 4 acting nominations and a screenplay nod and NOT be a Best Pic nominee. But that looks like what will happen...

Here are my picks as of today (they could change):

Picture: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk...Wall-E could surprise, Doubt, Rev Road, Reader all outside looking in...

Director: The DGA five above: Boyle, Nolan, Fincher, Howard, Van Sant...Andrew Stanton is your spoiler for Wall-E...Maybe a Demme for Rachel Getting Married.

Actor: Penn, Rourke, Langella, Jenkins, Eastwood...Pitt's the spoiler.

Actress: Streep, Winslet, Hathaway, Leo, and Jolie...Blanchett and/or Hawkins are the spoilers...KS Thomas outside...meaning the 3 Telluride actresses get shut out.

Supp Actor: Ledger, Hoffman, Brolin, Downey, Patel. The Slumdog train gets Patel a nomination. Spoiler: Franco.

Supp Actress: Cruz, Winslet, Davis, Tomei, Adams...Henson is the spoiler.

Adapted: Slumdog, Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Dark Knight...Rev Road/Reader = spoilers

Original: The biggest crap shoot! Milk, Wall-E, Barcelona, The Wrestler, Happy-Go-Lucky. Spoiler: The Visitor.

Big 8 nom predictions:

Slumdog: 4

Button: 3

Milk: 5

Doubt: 5

Dark Knight: 4
Frost/Nixon: 4
The Wrestler: 3

Other tidbits:

Slumdog had a big night at the Critic's Choice last night..still think it gets 9 noms overall AND Button may actually NOT get to double digit noms. For the first time, I think it may be possible that Slumdog and Button end up tied at 9 nominations each!

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Oscar Clearinghouse #6...Jan. 6th Edition

Holidays have come and gone. Guild nominations are coming out. And the announcement of Oscar nominees is just a couple of weeks away. Doubt has gotten some big help of late as has Dark Knight. Revolutionary Road seems to be fading into the distance and Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button and Milk continue to hum along. Here's the latest breakdown of the combination of 8 Oscar prediction websites (The Envelope, And the Winner Is, Everything Oscar, In Contention, Gurus of Gold, Awards Circuit, Film Experience and The Oscar Guy) with TELLURIDE CONNECTIONS IN CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: SLUMDOG, BUTTON, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Dark Knight

Lurkers: Doubt, Wall-E, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler, The Reader

Comment: The top 5 remain the same from 2 weeks ago. The biggest movers are Wall-E jumping onto the list at #7 and Rev Road dropping 2 spots. I think the the top 3 are locks and then you have a fight for the last 2 spots between 4 pictures. I am a little surprised that Doubt's success at Golden Globe and SAG noms hasn't generated more heat over the past 2 weeks. Also, the PGA noms help Dark Knight and Frost/Nixon. Wall-E is making a late charge, but a lot of buzz seems to think that the charge is too late. Both Rev Road and The Reader seem to be out of the running at this point.

Director: BOYLE/SLUMDOG, FINCHER/BUTTON, Van Sant/Milk, Howard/Frost, and Nolan/Dark

Lurkers: Aronofsky/Wrestler, Mendes/Rev Road, Demme/Rachel Getting Married, Allen/Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Shanley/Doubt

Comment: As you might expect, the 5 at the top are the directors of the 5 best pix leaders. The only serious movement is Woody Allen jumping onto the list at #9. The rest has been very stable the past 2 weeks. The DGA nominations come out Thursday...will that provide any surprises?

Actor: Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Langella/Frost, Eastwood/Gran Torino, Jenkins/The Visitor

Lurkers: PITT/BUTTON, DiCaprio/Rev Road, Brolin/W, D. Hoffman/Last Chance Harvey, Del Toro/Che

Comment: Some significant movement in this category...Eastwood and Jenkins are both up 2 spots and DiCaprio drops 3...The top 3 spots remain the same...I am not surprised by Jenkins movement..The SAG nom shows his strength and it is a wonderful, understated performance. Eastwood's strength does surprise me...Gran Torino has dropped off the radar in every other category except screenplay...Seems to me that 4 spots are solid...Penn, Rourke, Langella, and Jenkins and that the 5th spot is a pick-em...Saw Button over the holidays and I gotta say, I'm firmly in the "eh" camp. Pitt's performance...ok, Blanchett...ok (and I'm a Blanchett fan)...Henson's performance...overdone. It's pretty, but doesn't move you. Or at least, me.

Actress: Streep/Doubt, Winslet/Rev Road, Hathaway/Rachel, Jolie/Changeling, HAWKINS/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.

Lurkers: Leo/Frozen River, THOMAS/LOVED YOU SO LONG, BLANCHETT/BUTTON, Beckinsale/Nothing But the Truth, Williams/Wendy and Lucy.

Comment: Melissa Leo is a big mover, up 2 spots (again, thanks to SAG) and Kristin Scott Thomas is a big mover, down 2 spots... Will the Rev Road swoon hurt Winslet who has consistently been dueling with Streep for the top spot in this category? I've said for months now that this could be the most Telluride intensive category...or a total wash...I think it's most likely to be a total wash at this point...i think it's a pretty good bet that Melissa Leo sneaks into the 5th spot displacing Sally Hawkins and that the 3 Telluride women end up with no noms at all.

Supporting Actor: Ledger/Dark Knight, PS Hoffman/Doubt, Brolin/Milk, Downey/Tropic Thunder, Franco/Milk.

Lurkers: Shannon/Rev Road, PATEL/SLUMDOG, Fiennes/Reader, MARSAN/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, Fiennes/The Duchess.

Comment: The only big mover here is Eddie Marsan in Happy-Go-Lucky, jumping onto the list at #9. Really? You know, it was entertaining little bubble of a film. And Sally Hawkins performance is good, but really? My guess at this point is that the top 4 get nommed and that Dev Patel rides the Slumdog wave and his SAG nom to the 5th spot, displacing James Franco.

Supporting Actress: Cruz/Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Winslet/Reader, Henson/Button, Tomei/Wrestler.

Lurkers: Adams/Doubt, DeWitt/Rachel, Bates/Rev Road, Winger/Rachel, ZYLBERSTEIN/LOVED YOU.

Comment: No major movement in this category. Probably 6 women fighting for the 5 spots..Adams helped by the SAG nom.

Adapted Screenplay: SLUMDOG, BUTTON, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, and Revolutionary Road.

Lurkers: Reader, Dark Knight, Defiance, GOMORRAH, and no #10.

Comment: Again, no big moves here. WGA noms are just around the corner. Does Rev Road survive to get a nom here?

Original Screenplay: Milk, Rachel, Barcelona, Wall-E, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.

Lurkers: Wrestler, Visitor, Gran Torino, Burn After Reading, The Changeling.

Comment: Gran Torino makes a jump onto the list at #8.

Underview: Milk looks solid for 6 noms (maybe 7) in the Big 8 categories. Revolutionary Road, which was an early frontrunner has dived to only 2 "noms" and I think those might be shaky. My guess right now is that Button leads all nominees with double digits. That Slumdog gets 9 noms (see the last post) and that Milk and Slumdog duke it out for Best Pic...Button wins some of the tech stuff...but no major award. Frost/Nixon will get nominated for several and not win a single award.

Winner Picks (at this point):

Orig Script: Milk

Adapted Script: Slumdog

Supp. Actress: Cruz

Supp. Actor:Ledger

Actress: Streep

Actor: Penn

Director: Boyle
Picture: Slumdog