TEN BETS
Since last week's list of the ten films I have the most confidence of seeing on Telluride's play list when they announce it on Sept. 1 much has happened that has had an effect on said list. Venice and Toronto fests have announced the major part of their lineup (thought there will be further announcements, especially from Toronto) and the New York Film Fest has announced its opening film. Also, information from Ioncinema and Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere have affected the "Bets" Consequently, there are some substantial changes to this week's version of "Ten Bets".
Last Week's Ten Bets:
1) The Descendants
2) A Trip to the Moon
3) Gazing into the Abyss
4) Young Adult
5) Dark Horse
6) The Artist
7) Prohibition
8) The Kid with a Bike
9) Shame
10) Coriolanus
This week's TEN BETS:
1) The Descendants
2) The Artist
3) We Have to Talk About Kevin
4) Drive
5) A Trip to the Moon
6) Gazing into the Abyss
7) Prohibition
8) Shame
9) Le Havre
10) The Kid with a Bike
Note: "Drive" is the big add. It's addition comes from an Ioncinema tweet following the Toronto announcements. "Le Havre" is back on the list with the news this past week that its distribution for the U.S. had been secured by specialty house Janus Films.
"Young Adult" is the big drop this week after Pete Hammond reported that the Jason Reitman film would not play ANY of the festival circuit. That being said, it still wouldn't completely shock me if it didn't somehow "sneak" in Telluride alone. "Dark Horse" and "Coriolanus" drop off the list week because I've heard nothing and I needed to make room for the three additions. At this point "Le Havre" and "The Kid with a Bike" seem like the surer bets.
CARNAGE CAUSES FRICTION
The cast of Roman Polanski's "Carnage" headed to NYC
What is of some interest, perhaps, to Telluride attendees is the reported friction between TFF and Sony Pictures Classics, which is handling the film. Hollywood News has the report of the selection of "Carnage" here:
http://t.co/nkpr98F
Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood at IndieWire is where the report of friction is from. See it here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2011/07/29/polanskis_carnage_will_open_new_york_film_festival_hits_theaters_in_decembe/
I have to wonder if that friction will have any impact on the films we are likely to see in Telluride. SPC has had a significant presence over the last five years at Telluride and although I have thought that their slate of possible films this year presented some challenges for Telluride programmers, I still believed we'd see some titles from them. SPC films that are on the Telluride watch list (excluding "Carnage" now): "A Dangerous Method," "The Skin I Live In," "Footnote," and "Restless." Maybe "Take Shelter"...but it was a Sundance Fest film which reduces its chances.
GUESSING TELLURIDE...SOMEONE ELSE TAKES A STAB
Kristopher Tapley at InContention.com is really good at this stuff. Way more experience at it. More contacts in the business...(OK, any contacts in the biz would be more than I have). So when he posts a spec piece about what he thinks might play at the Telluride Film Festival we'd be wise to pay attention.
And he has.
Last week Tapley posted a fairly lengthy piece with his first stab at Telluride speculation. I have included the link to the whole story here:
http://tinyurl.com/4xkeolz
Tapley ends the article with a summative list. Hey, I'll break it down for you...
LIKELY
“The Artist”
“A Dangerous Method”
“The Descendants”
“Martha Marcy May Marlene”
“The Skin I Live In”
“W.E.”
Comment: I'd like to believe Tapley all the way through here. I totally agree with "The Descendants" and "The Artist."
I think "Skin" is pretty likely. I have my doubts about MMMM because of its Sundance pedigree. And I'd like to believe him about "W.E." just because I think Madonna in Telluride would be a hoot. Talk about a clash of worlds. I'd also really want to will Tapley to be correct about "A Dangerous Method" because I think it's one of the most intriguing looking films out there for this fall, but I am dubious.
QUITE POSSIBLE
“Albert Nobbs”
“Rampart”
“Take Shelter”
“We Need to Talk About Kevin”
Comment: I'm believing the Ioncinema claim right now that "Kevin" will be at Telluride (I've had it in the "Ten Bets" list frequently this summer). I have also been high on "Albert Nobbs" chance of being in T-ride.
I haven't had much feeling that "Rampart" would play Telluride because Moverman's "The Messenger" did not play Telluride in 2009. As to "Take Shelter"...again, it was a Sundance premiere which usually means that we won't see it at Telluride.
MAYBE
“The Deep Blue Sea”
“Drive”
“The Ides of March”
“Shame”
“Take This Waltz”
Comment: Again, if the Ioncinema report is to be believed, "Drive" will be in T-ride. I'm more bullish on "Shame" than Tapley is. Like Tapley, this is exactly where I'd place "Deep Blue Sea" and "Waltz."
And I'm encouraged that he'd put "Ides of March" on his "Maybe" list. I have been of a mind that its opening at Venice and its listing as a Toronto gala had decreased its chance of being in Telluride considerably. I'd love to see it in the San Juans on Labor Day. I've read the play...liked it a lot and the cast (Clooney, Gosling, Giamatti, Hoffman, Tomei) is killer.
NOT LIKELY
“Carnage”
“Contagion”
“The Iron Lady”
“Melancholia”
“Moneyball”
“My Week with Marilyn”
“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
Comment: Can't disagree with his assessment in any of these.
NOPE
“Young Adult”
Comment: See above.
I'm trying to find out where he would place "Coriolanus" and "Twixt" on his assessment.
IDES TRAILER TIME
And speaking of George Clooney's "The Ides of March," the trailer is out. Multiple sources/links for your viewing pleasure:
InContention.com: http://tinyurl.com/3obt9vq
The Playlist: http://dlvr.it/cs4N7
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