Michael's Telluride Film Blog : MTFB Oscar Update: Supporting Actors and More / Current Predicted Oscar Totals from MTFB / Interviews and Profiles

Monday, January 31, 2022

MTFB Oscar Update: Supporting Actors and More / Current Predicted Oscar Totals from MTFB / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ACTORS AND MORE

Oscar nominations are coming soon. Nominations will be announced in 23 categories on Tuesday Feb. 8th. MTFB will have its final predictions here on Monday Feb. 7th. I am also planning a special added post on Feb. 8th after the nominations have been announced.

Here's your update on the Supporting Acting races as well as Score, Song and Costumes. These predictions were last updated on Jan. 17th. TFF #48 performances/films are indicated in Bold and their previous position in my predictions are indicated to the right in parentheses.

Check out my current predictions for all 20 feature film categories on MTFB's Oscar Update Page.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story (1)

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog (3)

3) Caitirona Balfe/Belfast (2)

4) Aunjunue Ellis/King Richard (4)

5) Ruth Negga/Passing (5)

Alternates: Cate Blanchett/Nightmare Alley and Anne Dowd/ Mass

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog (1)

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA (2)

3) Bradley Cooper/Licorice Pizza (4)

4) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast (3)

5) Jared Leto/House of Gucci (5)

Alternates: Jamie Dornan/Belfast and Ben Affleck/The Tender Bar

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune (1)

2) The Power of the Dog (2)

3) The French Dispatch (3)

4) Don't Look Up (4)

5) Encanto (Alt.)

Alternates: Parallel Mothers and Spencer

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die (1)

2) Be Alive/King Richard (2)

3) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto (3)

4) Just Look Up/Don't Look Up (5)

5) Down to Joy/Belfast (4)

Alternates: Guns Go Bang/The Harder They Fall and Here I Am/Respect

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella (1)

2) Dune (2)

3) West Side Story (3)

4) Nightmare Alley (5)

5) House of Gucci (4)

Alternates: Cyrano and Spencer

CURRENT PREDICTED OSCAR TOTALS

Over on MTFB's Oscar Take page, here's the current breakdown of Oscar nomination predictions I have for TFF #48 films as well as totals for the 10 films I am currently predicting will be Best Picture nominees.

Belfast Total-10 and 1 Alternate: Picture, Direction (Branagh), Supporting Actress (Balfe), Supporting Actor (Hinds), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Production Design and Song. Alternate: Supporting Actor (Dornan).

The Power of the Dog- Total 9 and 1 Alternate. Picture, Direction (Campion) , Actor (Cumberbatch), Supporting Actress (Dunst), Supporting Actor (Smit-McPhee), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score. Alternate: Sound

King Richard Total-5: Picture, Actor (Smith), Supporting Actress (Ellis), Original Screenplay and Song.

Flee Total- 3: International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature

The Lost Daughter Total-2 and 1 Alternate: Actress (Colman), Adapted Screenplay. Alternate: Best Direction (Gyllenhaal)

The French Dispatch Total-2: Production Design and Score.

Spencer Total- 1 and 3 Alternates- Actress (Stewart). Alternates: Original Score, Costumes and Cinematography

Cyrano Total- 1 and 1 Alternate: Actor (Dinklage). Alternate: Costumes

A Hero Total- 1 and 1 Alternate: International Feature. Alternate: Original Screenplay

The Hand of God Total- 1: International Feature

The Rescue Total-1: Documentary Feature

Procession Total-1: Documentary Feature

C'mon C'mon Total- 1 Alternate: Original Screenplay

The Velvet Underground Total -1 Alternate: Documentary Feature

As of this assessment, TFF #48 films are predicted to net 37 nominations with another 10 Alternates in play. An incredible14 TFF #48 films could have at least one Oscar nomination on Feb. 8th.

My other Best Picture predictions and what I expect that they're nominations will be:

Dune-10 nominations: Best Picture, Direction (Villenueve), Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score, Costumes, Visual Effects, Sound and Makeup/Hair. Also possible: Adapted Screenplay

West Side Story- 9 nominations: Best Picture, Direction (Spielberg), Supporting Actress (DeBose), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costumes and Sound. Also possible: Makeup/Hair

Don't Look Up- 5 nominations: Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score, Song. Also possible Actor (DiCaprio)

Being the Ricardos- 3 nominations: Best Picture, Actress (Kidman) and Original Screenplay. Also possible: Actor (Bardem)

CODA- 3 nominations: Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Kotsur) and Adapted Screenplay

tick, tick...BOOM- 2 nominations: Best Picture, Actor (Garfield). Also possible: Sound

Licorice Pizza- 4 nominations: Best Picture, Direction (Anderson), Supporting Actor (Cooper), Original Screenplay. Also possible: Actress (Haim) and Editing.

And right now I have House of Gucci the most nominated without getting a Best Picture nomination with 4: Best Actress (Gaga), Supporting Actor (Leto), Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

Last note here: I feel like Nightmare Alley is gaining ground. I currently have it predicted for 2 nominations (Production Design and Costumes) with a shot at Supporting Actress (Blanchett) and Cinematography. Since its Writers Guild nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay last week, I'm beginning to think that should it land an Oscar nomination in that category and if Blanchett lands in the five Supporting Actress nominees, Nightmare Alley might sneak into Best Picture and supplant Being the Ricardos or tick, tick...BOOM or even Don't Look Up.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES