SAG Nominations and the OC

"The King's Speech" and "Black Swan" continue their awards assault with this morning's announcement from the Screen Actor's Guild. Here is the complete list from USA Today:

Film Ensemble:
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Lead actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Lead actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hilary Swank, Conviction

Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Comment: "Ensemble" is what approximates Best Picture for the SAG Awards, so this almost certainly closes the deal for "Black Swan," "The Fighter," and "The Kids Are All Right" to be on the Oscar list of 10 nominees. "King's Speech" and "Social Network" have been considered locks...but these other three haven't been nearly the consensus picks that Kings and Social have been.

Actor: Nice boost for Duvall and for Bridges...after the Globe snub from earlier this week. Still likely Firth's to lose.

Actress: Hilary Swank...really? OK...Still likely a two horse race between Bening and Portman.

Supporting Actor: Hawkes and Renner are creeping into the conversation in a serious way for Oscar nominations...But it's between Bale and Rush for the win.

Supporting Actress: What an interesting category...Adams and Leo in "The Fighter" coming on like gangbusters. Steinfeld and Kunis are gathering some serious steam as well...and Bonham Carter maybe the lone lock in the category at this point...not to win, but to get a nomination. Anyone who says they think they know who's going to win this Oscar...don't believe them.

5 Categories/25 total nominees...8 for TFF #37 films.

King's Speech-4

Black Swan-3

127 Hours-1

Other non-Telluride films with multiple noms:

Social Network-2, Winter's Bone-2, The Fighter-4, Kids-3, True Grit-2

More Guilds still to come...Producers, Directors and Writers among others. we'll try to have a new comprehensive look at the Oscar race on The Clearinghouse within the next few days.