Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best Telluride predictor I know."
-Sasha Stone, Awards Daily
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
Good Morning America, How Are
You? (Thanks, Arlo!)
WHERE WE STAND:
Oscar nominations will be
announced one week from tomorrow and if The Clearinghouse metric is correct,
the following statements would be true…
There would be 7 or 8 Best
Picture nominees and they would be (in order of likelihood): The Artist, The
Descendants, The Help, War Horse, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and maybe
The Tree of Life.
War Horse has been weakened
and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Ides of March and Bridesmaids have all
Among Telluride #38 films,
the metric suggests that:
The Artist will have 11 nominations; more than
any other picture and maybe the ONLY film with double digit Oscar nominations
this year (though it appears increasingly likely that Hugo will have 10): Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Director,
Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, Original
Score and Makeup.
The Descendants will have
five nominations with an outside shot at two others. Nominations for: Picture, Actor, Supporting
Actress, Director and Adapted Screenplay.
Possibles for Editing and Cinematography.
Surprisingly, the next most
potentially nominated TFF #38 film may be Albert Nobbs. I liked it a lot (you can read my review for
The Playlist from T-ride here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska ), but many critics were not bowled over by
it. Nevertheless, as it stands this
morning, my analysis suggests three nominations for Actress, Song and Makeup
with a strong possibility for an additional nomination for Supporting Actress.
Pina looks to be dual
nominated as Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary.
Shame and A Separation each
look to get a single nomination and a possible second nod as well. For Shame, Fassbender looks pretty solid for
Best Actor and Carey Mulligan has an outside shot at a Supporting Actress
nod. For A Separation, a virtual certain
nomination as Best Foreign Language Film and a possible Original Screenplay
Single nominations are likely
for We Need to Talk About Kevin (Swinton/Actress) and In Darkness and Le Havre,
both for Foreign Language Film.
Films with outside shots but
NOT expected to be nominated are A Dangerous Method in Best Supporting Actor
and Art Direction and Footnote as Best Foreign Language Film.
All told, as of this morning,
The FAC says 26 nominations for Telluride 2011 with another 8 possibilities and
that does not include any of the “short” categories: Live Short, Animated Short
and Documentary Short where T-ride will almost certainly add a couple of
For a festival that has
seemed likely to max out at about two dozen nominations for most of the season,
the end result is looking rosier and could (and I stress “could”) end up close
to last year’s 30+ nominations.
Tomorrow we’ll look at the
latest rankings for the BIG 4 categories in detail one week away from
GOLDEN GLOBES IN THE
Last night’s Golden Globes
results are listed below:
Song: Masterpiece/Madonna et. al./W.E.
Score:Ludovic Bource/The Artist
Screenplay:Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris
Foreign Language:A Separation
Adventures of Tintin
Octavia Spencer/The Help
Actress (Comedy or
Musical): Michele Williams/My Week with Marilyn
Actor: (Comedy or
Musical):Jean Dujardin/The Artist
Meryl Streep/The Iron Lady
Actor (Drama):George Clooney/The Descendants
Film (Comedy or Musical):The Artist
Film (Drama):The Descendants
Telluride finished the night
with 6 Globes.
One each for The Help, W.E.,
Midnight in Paris, Hugo, Tintin, Beginners, My Week with Marilyn, A Separation and The Iron Lady.
Surprises? No big ones.
Maybe the song choice or Tintin…
Bumps/Fails? Since the Oscar nomination ballots are in,
obviously no affect there. Williams and
Streep maybe got a little PR boost in their contest with Viola Davis. The Artist looks like the film to beat.
A look tomorrow at the Oscar breakdown and more "below the line" Oscar info.