Monday, January 16, 2012

Good Morning America, How Are You?  (Thanks, Arlo!)


Oscar nominations will be announced one week from tomorrow and if The Clearinghouse metric is correct, the following statements would be true…

There would be 7 or 8 Best Picture nominees and they would be (in order of likelihood): The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, War Horse, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and maybe The Tree of Life.

War Horse has been weakened and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Ides of March and Bridesmaids have all improved.

Among Telluride #38 films, the metric suggests that:

 The Artist will have 11 nominations; more than any other picture and maybe the ONLY film with double digit Oscar nominations this year (though it appears increasingly likely that Hugo will have 10):  Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, Original Score and Makeup.

The Descendants will have five nominations with an outside shot at two others.  Nominations for: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Director and Adapted Screenplay.  Possibles for Editing and Cinematography.

Surprisingly, the next most potentially nominated TFF #38 film may be Albert Nobbs.  I liked it a lot (you can read my review for The Playlist from T-ride here:  ), but many critics were not bowled over by it.  Nevertheless, as it stands this morning, my analysis suggests three nominations for Actress, Song and Makeup with a strong possibility for an additional nomination for Supporting Actress.

Pina looks to be dual nominated as Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary.

Shame and A Separation each look to get a single nomination and a possible second nod as well.  For Shame, Fassbender looks pretty solid for Best Actor and Carey Mulligan has an outside shot at a Supporting Actress nod.  For A Separation, a virtual certain nomination as Best Foreign Language Film and a possible Original Screenplay nom.

Single nominations are likely for We Need to Talk About Kevin (Swinton/Actress) and In Darkness and Le Havre, both for Foreign Language Film.

Films with outside shots but NOT expected to be nominated are A Dangerous Method in Best Supporting Actor and Art Direction and Footnote as Best Foreign Language Film.

All told, as of this morning, The FAC says 26 nominations for Telluride 2011 with another 8 possibilities and that does not include any of the “short” categories: Live Short, Animated Short and Documentary Short where T-ride will almost certainly add a couple of additional nominations.

For a festival that has seemed likely to max out at about two dozen nominations for most of the season, the end result is looking rosier and could (and I stress “could”) end up close to last year’s  30+ nominations.

Tomorrow we’ll look at the latest rankings for the BIG 4 categories in detail one week away from Announcement morning.


Last night’s Golden Globes results are listed below:

Song: Masterpiece/Madonna et. al./W.E.
Score: Ludovic Bource/The Artist
Screenplay: Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris
Direction: Martin Scorsese/Hugo
 Foreign Language: A Separation
Animated: Adventures of Tintin
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer/The Help
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer/Beginners
Actress (Comedy or Musical): Michele Williams/My Week with Marilyn
Actor: (Comedy or Musical): Jean Dujardin/The Artist
Actress (Drama): Meryl Streep/The Iron Lady
Actor (Drama): George Clooney/The Descendants
Film (Comedy or Musical): The Artist
Film (Drama): The Descendants

Telluride finished the night with 6 Globes.

The Breakdown:
The Artist-3
The Descendants-2

One each for The Help, W.E., Midnight in Paris, Hugo, Tintin, Beginners, My Week with Marilyn,  A Separation and The Iron Lady.

Surprises?  No big ones.  Maybe the song choice or Tintin…

Bumps/Fails?  Since the Oscar nomination ballots are in, obviously no affect there.  Williams and Streep maybe got a little PR boost in their contest with Viola Davis.  The Artist looks like the film to beat.

 A look tomorrow at the Oscar breakdown and more "below the line" Oscar info.

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