Oscar Breakdown/#OccupyOscar!/Editors' Speak/Wim Speaks/Oscar Surprises

OSCAR PREDICTION BREAKDOWN.

If the nominations were announced this morning and The FAC was 100% accurate, the nomination totals for feature films would look like this:

The Artist                              11

Hugo                                      10

War Horse                               9 (but I think that’s on the high side)

The Help                                  7

The Descendants                      5

Moneyball                                5

With three nominations each: Midnight in Paris, The Tree of Life, My Week with Marilyn, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (I’ll bet it has more than three), Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Albert Nobbs, The Adventures of Tintin and Transformers.

With two apiece: The Iron Lady, Bridesmaids, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and The Muppets.

Single nominations for: J. Edgar, Beginners, Drive, Warrior, Win Win, 50/50, Tinker Tailor, Extremely Loud, Super 8 and Jane Eyre.

#OCCUPY OSCAR

How are my #occupyoscar projects faring a week away from nominations???

Michael Fassbender for Best Actor in Shame…looks reasonably likely.

Carey Mulligan for Best Supporting Actress in Shame…her chances exist but are slim.

Janet McTeer for Best Supporting Actress in Albert Nobbs…she has a decent shot.

Ezra Miller for Best Supporting Actor for We Need to Talk About Kevin…not happening.

Corey Stoll for Best Supporting Actor for Midnight in Paris…also not happening.

Asghar Farhadi for Best Original Screenplay for A Separation…it could happen, but it’s a stretch.

Mike Mills for Best Original Screenplay for Beginners…slim chance, very slim.

EDITORS SPEAK

The American Cinema Editors announced their nominees for excellence this year and they are (according to Awards Daily):

NOMINEES FOR 62nd ANNUAL ACE EDDIE AWARDS

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):

The Descendants
Kevin Tent, A.C.E.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Angus Wall, A.C.E. & Kirk Baxter, A.C.E.

Hugo
Thelma Schoonmaker, A.C.E.

Moneyball
Christopher Tellefsen, A.C.E.

War Horse
Michael Kahn, A.C.E.

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):

The Artist
Anne-Sophie Bion & Michel Hazanavicius

Bridesmaids
William Kerr & Michael L. Sale

Midnight in Paris
Alisa Lepselter

My Week with Marilyn
Adam Recht

Young Adult
Dana E. Glauberman, A.C.E.

BEST EDITED ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

The Adventures of Tintin
Michael Kahn, A.C.E. 

Puss in Boots
Eric Dapkewicz

Rango
Craig Wood, A.C.E. 

This actually probably aids The Descendants in its uphill struggle to win Best Picture from The Artist.  It probably hurts the chances of The Help.  Our FAC metric for Editing Oscar looked like this prior to the A.C.E. announcement:

EDITING

1)       The Artist

2)       War Horse

3)       Hugo

4)       Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

5)       Moneyball

Also in play:

6)       Drive

7)       The Descendants

8)       Extremely Loud

9)       The Tree of Life

10)   The Ides of March

Other possibles: The Help, Tinker Tailor, J. Edgar, Contagion, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Midnight in Paris, Warrior

WIM SPEAKS

A Guy Lodge interview with director Wim Wenders on the possible double Oscar nominee “Pina” here:

http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/interview-wim-wenders-on-overcoming-loss-and-meeting-3d-in-pina

OSCAR SURPRISES???

Steve Pond at The Wrap wrote an interesting “what if” post last Friday (the day Oscar nomination ballots were due) about weird things that could happen.  Take a look; it’s kind of entertaining:

http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/10-oscar-shocks-could-probably-wont-happen-34362?page=0,3