The Full FAC #2/The Jogger at Kickstarter/Argo's BO/Oscar Experts/Odds and Ends/Coming Attractions: The Monuments Men

Good  Monday to All!

THE FULL FAC/THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE 2012 #2

For the first time since Sept. 20th I have put together a complete Film Awards Clearinghouse.  If you've been reading the blog over the last 5 weeks or so, you've noticed that I have done weekly updates for Best Picture and then additional category updates have come in pairs every week.  IE Update #1 was Best Picture and Director.  #2 was Best Pic and the Lead Acting categories...etc.  But today I have put together the bigger picture...all 10 of the categories that the FAC is monitoring as we continue the run up to the Academy Awards.  As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates and this week I have included, were possible, the films original rank on the first full FAC in brackets. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT]

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery


So here we go...

BEST PICTURE

1) Argo (1) [1]
2) Silver Linings Playbook (2) [2]
3) Lincoln (3) [3]
4) Life of Pi (6) *** [8]
5) Les Miserables (4) [6]
6) The Master (5) [4]
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7) [5]
8) Amour (8) [7]
9) Hitchcock (9) [NEW]
10) Flight (11) [13]
11) Zero Dark Thirty (10) [9]
12) Django Unchained (12) [10]
13) The Sessions (14) [14]
14) Promised Land (15) [11]
15) Anna Karenina (New...sort of) *** [15]

Dropping Out: Moonrise Kingdom [12]

Comments:  "Life of Pi" has become a serious player in this prediction model as more people have screened it and the latest TV trailer has begun running.  The "Hitchcock" and "Promised Land" booms seem to have cooled somewhat.  Again, I'm intrigued, but  the trailers for both "Hitch" and "Promised Land" didn't make me immediately think "Best Picture Oscar" whereas the latest "Life of Pi" trailer did.

"Moonrise Kingdom", "The Sessions" and "Anna Karenina" continue to flirt with the bottom couple of spots.

"Argo", "Lincoln", "Silver Linings", The Master", "Life of Pi" and "Amour" were listed by all 9 experts.


BEST DIRECTION

1) Ben Affleck/Argo (2) (perfect score)
2) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (4) ***
3) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (7) ***
4) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
5) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (1) ###
6) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables (6)
7) Michael Haneke/Amour (5) ###
8) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty (10) ***
9) Benh Zeitlin/Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
10) Sacha Gervasi/Hitchcock (New) ***

Dropping Out: Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (9)

Comments: This chart may be a better reflection of the vagaries of the Best Picture race as it more clearly shows the heat for "Lincoln" and "Life of Pi" and the reversal of fortune for "The Master" and "Amour".

Affleck did, in fact, achieve a perfect score...the top prediction in this category from the 8 experts that rank preferentially on their websites.

Others named by all 9 experts: Spielberg, Russell, Anderson, Haneke and Lee.



BEST ACTRESS

1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1) [1]
2) Quevenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild (2) [2]
3) Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone (3) [4]
4) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (5) [6]
5) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (6) [N/L]
6) Helen Mirren/Hitchcock (7) [N/L]
7) Keira Knightley/Anna Karenina (4) [5] ###
8) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (NEW) [NEW] ***
9) Mary Elizabeth Winstead/Smashed (10) [N/L]
10) Meryl Streep/Hope Springs (8) [7] ###

Dropping Out: Judi Dench/Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Comments: The top of the Best Actress chart has been pretty stable...the bottom, not so much.  Additionally, two of the experts still are listing Jessica Chastain in "Supporting" but it was announced at the end of the week that she will be campaigned for "Lead" for her role in "Zero Dark Thirty".  So one could reasonably expect that she'll gain a bit more traction before the next Best Actress update in two weeks.

All nine experts listed Wallis, Lawrence (who had a perfect score on our last post for this category but missed it today by 1 point...Scott Feinberg moved her to #2 behind Wallis last week), Cotillard, Watts, Riva and Knightley.


BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (1) [1]
2) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (3) [3]
3) Denzel Washington/Flight (4) [4]
4) John Hawkes/The Sessions (2) [2] ###
5) Anthony Hopkins/Hitchcock (New) [N/L] ***
6) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook (5) [5]
7) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (8) [6]
8) Jean Louis Trintignant/Amour (7) [7]
9) Richard Gere/Arbitrage (New) [N/L] ***
10) Matt Damon/Promised Land (New) [N/L] ***

Dropping Out: Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained and Bill Murray/Hyde Park on Hudson

Comments: John Hawkes' campaign has cooled a bit and Bill Murray's has fallen off the planet (and that's reasonable..."Hyde Park" just doesn't have much spark.  Hopkins, and Damon both have benefited from the decision to put their respective films into play this year and Richard Gere has gotten some notice now that "Arbitrage" is in theaters.

Meanwhile, the race at the top between Phoenix and Day Lewis is about as close as its possible to be.  They're separated by one point in my system.  DDL is the top choice of 5 of the experts while Phoenix is top for 3 of them.  Phoenix catches DDL because he's #2 on every preferential list where he's not listed #1.  Day Lewis is not.

It will be interesting to see if Phoenix's comments about the uselessness of acting awards budges the feelings of theses experts in any way...whether they feel it will harm his Oscar shot or have no effect at all.

All nine predictors included: Day Lewis, Phoenix, Washington, Hawkes, Cooper and  Trintignant.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Amy Adams/The Master (2) [2]
2) Helen Hunt/The Sessions (3) [3]
3) Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables (1) [1] ###
4) Sally Field/Lincoln (5) [4]
5) Maggie Smith/Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (4) [5]
6) Samantha Barks/Les Miserables (6) [6]
7) Scarlett Johannson/Hitchcock (7) [N/L]
8) Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings Playbook (10) [N/L] ***
9) Kerry Washington/Django Unchained (8) [7]
10) Ann Dowd/Compliance (New) [N/L] ***

Dropping Out: Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (see above note).

Comments:  Anne Hathaway's fall from #1 to #3 is attributable to her absence altogether in the latest listing from Awards Daily.  Jacki Weaver benefits from the continued positive buzz building around "Silver Linings Playbook" and Ann Dowd, who has been getting some mention on the lower end of some experts predictions has finally generated enough heat to make the chart.

Receiving mention from all 9 experts: Amy Adams, Helen Hunt and Sally Field.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (1) [2]
2) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (5) [N/L] ***
3) Alan Arkin/Argo (3) [3]
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Django Unchained (2) [1] ###
5) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook (4) [8]
6) Russell Crowe/Les Miserables (6) [N/L]
7) Dwight Henry/Beasts of the Southern Wild (7) [4]
8) Matthew McConnaughey/Magic Mike (8) [6]
9) Ewan MacGregor/The Impossible (New) [N/L] ***
10) Bryan Cranston/Argo (New) [N/L] ***

Dropping Out: William H. Macy/The Sessions and David Stratharin/Lincoln

Comments: Nobody is hotter than Tommy Lee Jones right now.  DiCaprio suffers some positioning because of Jones rise.  And Bryan Cranston makes the list, along with Ewan MacGregor, for the first time.  Cranston  is one of my "Oscar Underground" picks this year.  So the question naturally becomes...if he's on the list, can he really be an Oscar underdog?  Ummm...yes, he can and is...

The remaining 4 categories were updated last week and so I have reprinted those results here

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Argo (1) 

2) Silver Linings Playbook (2) 

3) Lincoln (4) 

4) Beasts of the Southern Wild (3) 

5) The Sessions (8)+++

6) Life of Pi (5) 

7) Les Miserables (6)

8) Anna Karenina (7)

9) On the Road (New)***

10) Hitchcock (New)***

Out: The Dark Knight Rises, Killing Them Softly

+++ The Sessions is still receiving some votes in the "Original" screenplay category.  I believe it will be a player in the "Adapted" category.  So, for the time being, those votes are counted in the "Adapted" category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Master (2)

2) Moonrise Kingdom (1)

3) Amour (4)

4) Django Unchained (3)

5) Zero Dark Thirty (5)

6) Promised Land (6)

7) Looper (New)***

8) Flight (8)

9) Seven Psychopaths (9)

10) Arbitrage (New)***

Out: Frances Ha

Comment: A lot of love for "Looper" since its release.  Personally, I'm not nearly as enamored of it as many are.  

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Life of Pi (2)

2) The Master (1)

3) Lincoln (3)

4) Anna Karenina (6)***

5) Les Miserables (8)***

6) Django Unchained (7)

7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (4)###

8) The Dark Knight Rises (5)###

9) Cloud Atlas (9)

10) Skyfall (New)

Out: The Hobbit

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Argo (1)

2) Lincoln (2)

3) Zero Dark Thirty (4)

4) Les Miserables (7)***

5) The Master (3)###

6) Life of Pi (6)

7) The Dark Knight Rises (5)###

8) Silver Linings Playbook (9)

9) Django Unchained (8)

10) Beasts of the Southern Wild (10)

No Drop Outs

And so the Telluride # 39 presence right now looks like this in the Big Ten categories:

Argo: 6 nominations and 1 more possible.
Amour: 2 nominations and 3 more possible (I am classifying its current #8 ranking for Best Picture as a "possible" rather than a nomination)
Rust and Bone: 1 nomination.

That's all folks... 9 nominations and another 4 possible.  It's the least Telluride-ish impact since I started doing this blog 4 years ago.  That being said, there will still be some tech noms here and there...maybe...and certainly we'll see some of the TFF #39 playlist emerge on the Foreign Language final five as well as long form documentary but the simple truth is that Telluride will not be as big an influence on Oscar this year as it has been in the recent past.  All that being said, there's still a really good chance that Best Picture and Best Director will come from Telluride in the form of wins in those two categories for Ben Affleck's "Argo".

Other notes...if these predictions were true and nominations were announced today the following would be true:

"Lincoln" and "The Master" would each have 8 nominations among the Big Ten categories and others could be expected in the "below the line" categories.  It seems, at least for the moment, that that's where the competition is going to be for the film the earns the most nominations.  I give the edge to "Lincoln".

Next is "Silver Linings Playbook" with 5 nominations and another 3 possibles.

"Les Miserables" is looking at 4 nominations with 5 more possibles.

"Beasts of the Southern Wild" is set for 3 nominations and has 5 more possibles.

"Life of Pi" also is looking at 3 nominations with another 2 possible.

Also with 3 nominations would be "The Sessions" with another one possible.

"Django Unchained" is at 2 nominations with 4 more possible and "Zero Dark Thirty" is set for 2 nominations with another 3 possible.

One nomination films that have a significant presence in the number of possible nominations that they might add are :

"Hitchcock" with5 more possible, and "Anna Karenina" with 3 more possible.

"Promised Land" currently has no nominations projected but does have 3 possibilities.



THE JOGGER AT KICKSTARTER

Casey Twenter and Jeff Robison's "The Jogger" is winding down filming in OKC but its Kickstarter campaign for additional post-production funds continues until Nov. 4th.  Take a look here:

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1277883372/the-jogger

Drop 'em a buck or two...or more...


ARGO'S B.O.

You hardly ever see this happen but it did this weekend.  "Argo" won the Box Office for the first time since its release...that's in its third weekend...which is unheard of.  Strong word of mouth and less than stellar performances from the new films that opened (including "Cloud Atlas") combined to give "Argo" the weekend.  Maybe I mentioned "word of mouth" as a factor when it opened in 2nd place two weeks ago...

Here's the skinny:

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118061339.html?cmpid=RSS|News|FilmNews

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-four-new-383820

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/weekend-box-office-argo-takes-top-slot-as-new-releases-crash-burn-20121028


OSCAR EXPERTS THIS WEEK...

OSCAR TALK (Thompson and Tapley)

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-cloud-atlas-argo-the-master-lincoln-momentum-screenwriting-looper-vs-avengers-doc-race-changes

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-93-cloud-atlas-opens-as-the-wachowskis-make-the-rare-press-rounds

A FEW MINUTES WITH FEINBERG #8 (Scott Feinberg)

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/a-few-minutes-feinberg-juggling-383552

and...this week' FEINBERG FORECAST:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/argo-lincoln-oscar-predictions-382028

OSCAR PODCAST W/SASHA STONE/AWARDS DAILY

http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpodcast/episode5.mp3

ODDS AND ENDS

***Two Clips from "Amour" via The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-2-clips-from-michael-hanekes-palme-dor-winning-amour-20121026

***Scott Feinberg talks to director Dror Moreh about his documentary "The Gatekeepers":

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/gatekeepers-director-dror-moreh-talks-383662

***The New York Times editorializes about "The Central Park Five":

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/opinion/sunday/when-mass-hysteria-convicted-5-teenagers.html

***Tributee Mads Mikkelsen's next gig is NBC's "Hannibal" as in Hanibal Lecter from "Silence of the Lambs.  The Playlist posts this story:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/first-look-at-mads-mikkelsen-as-hannibal-lecter-in-nbcs-hannibal-20121025

COMING ATTRACTIONS: MONUMENTS MEN

George Clooney's next directing gig?  Bill Murray in it?  Maybe also "The Artist's" Jean Dujardin?  Sounds like a lot of Telluride connectivity in all of that and it could all be true asClooney prepares "The Monuments Men" a drama centered on the attempt to save art from Hitler's wrath in WWII.  Clooney is listed by IMDb as writer, producer and actor.  No one is yet listed as director.

Here's some coverage of the early moves toward making this film:

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/jean-dujardin-possible-monuments-men-exclusive-58821

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/jean-dujardin-cate-blanchett-paul-giamatti-sought-for-george-clooneys-the-monuments-men-20121002

http://www.anomalousmaterial.com/movies/2012/10/george-clooney-wants-jean-dujardin-cate-blanchett-paul-giamatti-for-wwii-pic-the-monuments-men/

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/fox-split-george-clooney-drama-monuments-men-sony-62086

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/fox-finds-george-clooneys-monuments-men-while-legendary-drops-tom-cruises-kill-but-paramount-picks-adam-20121025

IMDb's "Monuments Men" entry:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2177771/



More on Thursday!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

Jog A Buck for The Jogger/Argo Awards/Central Park Trailer/Rust and Bone Clip/Coming Attractions

Good Thursday to All from the Oklahoma 5A State One Act Play Competition in Wagoner, OK!

JOG A BUCK FOR "THE JOGGER"

Filming continues for friend of the blog Casey Twenter making his debut as a feature co-director shooting his script of "The Jogger" (co-written and co-directed by Jeff Robison).  Check their Kickstarter account they have ongoing to further enhance the film in post-production.  Drop a dime or two and support film in Oklahoma!  Here's the link:
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1277883372/the-jogger


ARGO AWARDS

It may just be the opening of the awards floodgate for Ben Affleck's "Argo" as the film was honored by the Hollywood Film Awards this week for Ensemble Acting.  Contactmusic.com has that story here:
http://www.contactmusic.com/news/awards-already-rolling-in-for-ben-affleck-s-argo_3339859


CENTRAL PARK FIVE TRAILER

Official trailer for "The Central Park Five"

Ken Burns, Sarah Burns and David McMahon's documentary about injustice in NYC in the 80's has a n official trailer.  That's linked above and  I have also linked a couple of stories announcing the trailer here:

FirstShowing.net:
http://www.firstshowing.net/2012/full-trailer-for-ken-burns-latest-the-central-park-five-documentary/?uid=5976ee2cecc6f1b82c94d5bdfbde56d6e7add463

Awards Daily:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2012/10/22/central-park-five-trailer/


NEW CLIP FROM "RUST AND BONE"

Continuing to build momentum towards its release here in the U.S. is Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone" and to that end a new clip from the film is out and featured at The Playlist.  It releases here in the U.S. on Nov.23.

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/you-have-to-carry-me-new-clip-from-rust-and-bone-with-marion-cotillard-matthias-schoenaerts-20121023


COMING ATTRACTIONS

This "Coming Attraction" is probably as close to a lead pipe cinch as you can imagine this far away from its completion.  This week's addition to the conversation about future Telluride possibilities is Alexander Payne's "Nebraska".  Payne has become a real fixture at Telluride.  So much so that he told me in September that he has the green light to pursue films that he finds interesting for possible presentation as part of the festival.

"Nebraska" stars an incredibly eclectic cast of Bruce Dern and Will Forte of SNL and MacGruber fame(?). Also listed in the cast are: Bob Odenkirk and Stacy Keach.  The IMDb description says:

"An aging, booze-addled father makes the trip from Montana to Nebraska with his estranged son in order to claim a million dollar Publisher's Clearing House sweepstakes prize."

So, here are the various links to stories about "Nebraska" that I've been hoarding for the past few months:

From The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/alexander-payne-says-he-has-actor-in-mind-for-nebraska-who-might-not-have-seen-the-script-yet

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/bruce-dern-macgruber-star-will-forte-are-alexander-paynes-picks-to-star-in-nebraska-20120515

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/bruce-dern-macgruber-star-will-forte-confirmed-for-alexander-paynes-nebraska-20120806

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/buzz-mccallister-from-home-alone-is-the-villain-in-alexander-paynes-nebraska-20121004

From The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/devin-ratray-signs-villain-duties-nebraska-alexander-payne-376364

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/alexander-payne-bryan-cranston-nebraska-300243?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

From Get The Big Picture:

http://www.getthebigpicture.net/blog/2012/5/21/macgruber-to-take-upper-deckers-in-nebraska-for-alexander-pa.html

"Nebraska's" IMDb entry is here:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1821549/

More on Monday...have a good weekend!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

FAC Update: Picture, Screenplays, Cinema and Editing/The Jogger/Oscar Underground for 2012/Oscar Pods/Rust and Bone Wins/Ginger and Rosa/Argo News

Good Monday everyone....


FAC UPDATE



Here's my next installment of The Film Awards Clearinghouse Update.  Today I update Best Picture as well as both Adapted and Original Screenplay and Cinematography and Film Editing.  The (#) indicates the position the film had the last time I posted that particular category.  My sources for The FAC:
Scott Feinberg, Kris Tapley, Anne Thompson, Sasha Stone, Film Misery, Film Experience, Rope of Silicon, IndieWire and Awards Circuit.

Bold indicates a TFF #39 film.  ### = Cooling, *** = Heating up.

BEST PICTURE

1) Argo (1)

2) Silver Linings Playbook (3)

3) Lincoln (5)***

4) Les Miserables (2)###

5) The Master (5)

6) Life of Pi (6)

7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)

8) Amour (8)

9) Hitchcock (10)

10) Zero Dark Thirty (9)

11) Flight (11)

12) Django Unchained (13)

13) Moonrise Kingdom (14)

14) The Sessions (15)

15) Promised Land (12)###

No Drop Outs

Comment: "Lincoln's" surprise showing as a part of the NYFF has given it a boost.  I'm still dubious that "Amour" will get a Best Picture nomination.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Argo (1)

2) Silver Linings Playbook (2)

3) Lincoln (4)

4) Beasts of the Southern Wild (3)

5) The Sessions (8)+++

6) Life of Pi (5)

7) Les Miserables (6)

8) Anna Karenina (7)

9) On the Road (New)***

10) Hitchcock (New)***

Out: The Dark Knight Rises, Killing Them Softly

+++ The Sessions is still receiving some votes in the "Original" screenplay category.  I believe it will be a player in the "Adapted" category.  So, for the time being, those votes are counted in the "Adapted" category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Master (2)

2) Moonrise Kingdom (1)

3) Amour (4)

4) Django Unchained (3)

5) Zero Dark Thirty (5)

6) Promised Land (6)

7) Looper (New)***

8) Flight (8)

9) Seven Psychopaths (9)

10) Arbitrage (New)***

Out: Frances Ha

Comment: A lot of love for "Looper" since its release.  Personally, I'm not nearly as enamored of it as many are.  

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Life of Pi (2)

2) The Master (1)

3) Lincoln (3)

4) Anna Karenina (6)***

5) Les Miserables (8)***

6) Django Unchained (7)

7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (4)###

8) The Dark Knight Rises (5)###

9) Cloud Atlas (9)

10) Skyfall (New)

Out: The Hobbit

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Argo (1)

2) Lincoln (2)

3) Zero Dark Thirty (4)

4) Les Miserables (7)***

5) The Master (3)###

6) Life of Pi (6)

7) The Dark Knight Rises (5)###

8) Silver Linings Playbook (9)

9) Django Unchained (8)

10) Beasts of the Southern Wild (10)

No Drop Outs

Check the Clearinghouse stats against the big boys at:

Gurus of Gold: http://moviecitynews.com/2012/10/gurus-o-gold-after-toronto-part-1/

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/10/gurus-o-gold-after-toronto-part-2/

Gold Derby: http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/56/

THE JOGGER

Toss in a few bucks and get involved with "The Jogger" currently shooting in Oklahoma City.  The link is here:
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1277883372/the-jogger?ref=live

OSCAR UNDERGROUND

That's what I'm calling it this year.  I called it "Occupy Oscar" last year and it's my tiny attempt to bang the drum for Oscar consideration for films and performances that I feel like are deserving of a look but aren't getting as much notice as the "front runners".

This season includes (so far):

Best Actor: Jack Black/Bernie

Best Supporting Actor: Bryan Cranston/Argo

Best Original Screenplay: Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig/Frances Ha (though it may not get a qualifying run for 2012 consideration).

Last year I was all about Asghar Farhadi getting an Original Screenplay nomination which happened and Ezra Miller getting a Best Supporting Actor nomination for "We Need to Talk About Kevin" which didn't happen.

In all likelihood there will be others as we get deeper into the awards season.

OSCAR PODS

Here are the links to this week's Oscar recordings/podcasts and the Oscar Roundtable from Awards Daily.

Oscar Roundtable: http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2012/10/19/oscar-roundtable-2012-take-one/

Oscar Talk (Thompson/Tapley):
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-spielbergs-lincoln-is-major-contender-led-by-day-lewis-gothams-flight

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-92-gotham-nods-flight-lincoln-and-best-supporting-actress

Oscar Update (O'Neil/Travers):
http://ec.libsyn.com/p/c/6/1/c61b4aeb4086e408/Oscars_Update_Peter_Travers.mp3?d13a76d516d9dec20c3d276ce028ed5089ab1ce3dae902ea1d01cd8730d5c05a65a3&c_id=5059723

Sasha Stone's Oscar Podcast:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpodcast/episode4.mp3

And Oscar Poker:
http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/10/douglas_poker.php


Gold Derby's latest take on the Best Picture race:
http://www.goldderby.com/films/news/3506/argo-les-miserables-entertainment-news-516293847.html

The latest Feinberg Forecast from THR's Scott Feinberg for the Academy Awards:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/ben-afflecks-argo-spielbergs-lincoln-378959


RUST AND BONE WINS

My personal choice for Best Film at this year's Telluride Film Festival was Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone" starring Marion Cotillard and Matthias Schoenaerts.  Cotillard has generated a good deal of Oscar heat in the Best Actress category, but "R+B" is not France's entry for the foreign language Oscar (that would be "The Intouchables").

This past weekend the BFI London Film Festival named "Rust and Bone" its Best Film.  Thanks, London!  Both The Hollywood Reporter and Variety report:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/rust-bone-wins-london-festivals-381421

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118061038/

GINGER AND ROSA NEWS

The Sally Potter film is generating some warmth for Elle Fanning's performance...

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-elle-fanning-alice-englert-in-a-new-clip-from-ginger-rosa-20121018

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/128280/1st_trailer_for_Ginger_&_Rosa_Toronto_film_fest_hit_released

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/ginger-rosa-opens-february-1-2013-in-limited-release-15-new-photos-a-new-clip-from-the-elle-fanning-led-drama-20121019

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/elle-fanning-ginger-and-rosa

ARGO NEWS

Interview with Ben Affleck by Tom O'Neil:
http://www.goldderby.com/films/news/3498/video-ben-affleck-on-'argo'-oscars--crazy-hollywood.html

Interview with Ben Affleck from Metacafe:
http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/1aQlXU/www.metacafe.com/watch/9254060/argo_interview_with_ben_affleck/



More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

Kickstart The Jogger/Argo Opens/Various and Sundry/Oscar News

Good Thursday to All...

KICKSTART THE JOGGER

Casey Twenter and Jeff Robison's "The Jogger" continues to lense in and around the Oklahoma City area.  Here's what they posted on "The Jogger's" Facebook page on Tuesday:

"That's a day 3 wrap. The footage Michael Stine has shot looks fantastic. The work ethic and demeanor of the crew is inspiring. Acting is aces. Time for some sleep and then we're on at 6 again tonight!"

Here's the link to that page:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Jogger/359188407489402?fref=ts

The Oklahoma film makers have a Kickstarter account established so that they can do some desired post-production work.  Check that out here:
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1277883372/the-jogger?ref=city

As I have been saying...support Oklahoma film a drop a dime (or two) into Casey and Jeff's project.


ARGO OPENS

TFF #39 sneak preview "Argo" has been tearing up the festival scene since its debut in Telluride 6 weeks ago.  It opened nationwide last Friday and has benefited from terrific reviews.  Dollar-wise, I gather that the WB folks would have liked it to have done a little better business last weekend (it opened as the #2 film of the weekend behind the second week of "Taken 2") but I think that word of mouth is going to keep it going for a while.

As you might expect there aren't quite as many posts/stories today as there were Monday in the glow of its opening weekend but there are still quite a few "Argo" tidbits to pass along to you.

First, Vulture.com explores the value/utility of all the character actors that make up the "Argo' ensemble and have many thinking that it's the favorite for the ensemble acting award that will be presented by the Screen Actors Guild.  Here's that post:

http://www.vulture.com/2012/10/who-is-the-mvp-of-argos-character-actors.html

Another common thread among "Argo" stories has been the commentary concerning the "comeback' of actor/writer/director Ben Affleck.  The Herald Mail looks at that here:

http://articles.herald-mail.com/2012-10-15/lifestyle/34480754_1_film-review-film-industry-argo

Another common thread through any number of posts about the film has been comparing the fictionalized world of the film to the actual events  it is based on.  Screenrant is among the sites that have taken that on and here is their examination:

http://screenrant.com/argo-movie-facts-fiction-true-story-differences/


Omer M. Mozaffar breaks down the film on Roger ebrt's website here:

http://blogs.suntimes.com/foreignc/2012/10/the-revolution-has-been-filmed.html

And interviews continue to be posted/published.  Below you'll find The Hollywood Reporter's talk with "Argo' screen scribe Chris Terrio and Anne Thompson's talk with Affleck and film editor William Goldenberg:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/argo-screenwriter-chris-terrio-ben-affleck-iran-378972

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/affleck-talks-argo

VARIOUS AND SUNDRY ( "No", "Amour", "Barbara", "The Central Park Five", "Ginger and Rosa", "Rust and Bone" and "Everyday")

  
Here's a collection of posts/stories/reports from the last four days focused on films that played in TFF #39:

***Director Pablo Larrain talks “No” on iTunes

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/pablo-larrain-no-meet-filmmaker/id570750875

***"Amour" and  Haneke…

Director/writer Michael Haneke is awarded the French Legion of Honor

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/michael-haneke-gets-french-legion-378922

Movie City News' Dave Poland interviews Haneke:

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/10/dp30-amour-writerdirector-michael-haneke-la-2012/

***Barbara

Director Christian Peltzold talks with both The Playlist and Mubi.com about Foreign Language Oscar hopeful "Barbara":

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/nyff-barbara-director-christian-petzold-talks-gdr-german-acting-vs-american-20121015

http://mubi.com/notebook/posts/spatial-suspense-a-conversation-with-christian-petzold

***The Central Park Five

The Ken Burns/Sara Burns/David McMahon doc gets a poster.  Here's the skinny from Hollywood Elsewhere and Ioncinema:

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/10/cut_and_dried.php

http://www.ioncinema.com/movies/central-park-five

***Ginger and Rosa

A first clip from the Elle Fanning starrer directed by Sally Potter is here via The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-first-clip-from-sally-potters-ginger-rosa-starring-elle-fanning-20121017#

***Rust and Bone

My favorite film of TFF #39 has an official U.S. trailer:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uwwJWgD6J8&feature=youtu.be

***Everyday

Michael Winterbottom's experimental, five-years-in-the-making film with a post from The Guardian:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2012/oct/15/child-stars-michael-winterbottom-everyday?newsfeed=true

OSCAR NEWS

Here's this week's link to Scott Feinberg's (of The Hollywood Reporter) "A Few Minutes with Feinberg":

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/a-few-minutes-feinberg-view-379501

And I have added a link to a new (well new to this blog) Oscar prognostication site.  This one is from the Huffington Post.  Here's the link:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-hogan/academy-award-predictions-2013-gold-rush_b_1967374.html

More on Monday...have a great weekend...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

FAC Update: Best Pic and Supporting/Kick In for "The Jogger"/Argo Onslaught/Oscar This and That/Various Notes/Coming Attractions

Good Monday to Everyone...

FAC UPDATE OCTOBER 15...

Here's this week's snapshot from The Film Awards Clearinghouse of the races for Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress and Actor:

Best Picture (last week's position in parenthesis with *** indicating heat and  ### for those losing significant steam):

1) Argo (1)
2) Les Miserables (3)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (2)
4) Lincoln (5)
5) The Master (4)
6) Life of Pi (6)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)
8) Amour (8)
9) Zero Dark Thirty (9)
10) Hitchcock (15)***
11) Flight (10)
12) Promised Land (13)
13) Django Unchained (11)
14) Moonrise Kingdom (14)
15) The Sessions (New)***

Dropping Out: Anna Karenina (#12 last week)###

Comment: "Hitchcock" continues to gain steam.  Though, I have to say, I'm not bowled over by the trailer.

Best Supporting Actress (previous rank is from the week of Sept. 20)

1) Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables (1)
2) Amy Adams/The Master (2)
3) Helen Hunt/The Sessions (3)
4) Maggie Smith/Quartet (5)
5) Sally Field/Lincoln (4)
6) Samantha Barks/Les Miserables (6)
7) Scarlett Johansson/Hitchcock (New)***
8) Kerry Washington/Django Unchained (7)
9) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (New)***
10) Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings Playbook (New)***

Dropping Out: Judi Dench, Vanessa Redgrave and Annette Bening

Comment:  There's a pretty substantial chasm between the top five and the rest of the field at this point.  I don't know if it will stay that way.  Scarlett Johansson's ascent mirrors the emergence of "Hitchcock" as a potential major player.

Best Supporting Actor:

1) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (2)
2) Leonardo DiCaprio/Django Unchained (1)
3) Alan Arkin/Argo (3)
4) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook (8)***
5) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (New)***
6) Russell Crowe/Les Miserables (New)***
7) Dwight Henry (4)###
8) Matthew McConaughey/Magic Mike (6)###
9) William H. Macy/The Sessions (7)
10) David Stratharin/Lincoln (5)

Dropping Out: Hal Holbrook and John Goodman

Comment: "Lincoln's" "surprise" showing at the New York Film Fest catapulted Tommy Lee Jones into the race.  My personal choice, Bryan Cranston in "Argo" currently sits at #11.


KICK IN FOR "THE JOGGER"



Screenwriter/director (and friend of the blog) Casey Twenter and his writing/directing partner Jeff Robison (TeeRob Productions) are shooting their first feature in Oklahoma City.  Production began on Oct. 13th.  They have the film budgeted and cast.


The two budding filmmakers have established a Kickstarter account for additional funding that will primarily be used for upgrading post-production items.

I am very pleased to include the link to that account here and encourage any and all to take a look and get involved.  These are good guys and I am thrilled to support a "made in Oklahoma" film project.

Here's the link:
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1277883372/the-jogger

ARGO ONSLAUGHT

Ben Affleck's Telluride favorite and current Oscar frontrunner "Argo" opened Friday and as you might expect, it was all over the film blogosphere and news space last week.  I've linked any number of reviews, posts and articles ranging from an analysis of its Oscar chances based on hair...to discussions of its throwback to 70's style film making.  There's a lot:

http://www.dfw.com/2012/10/11/694992/in-argo-ben-affleck-mixes-history.html

http://www.kansascity.com/2012/10/12/3863595/third-times-the-charm-for-director.html

http://www.hollywood.com/news/Argo_Ben_Affleck_Hair_Oscars/42095460

http://www.ibtimes.com/will-argo-earn-ben-affleck-best-director-oscar-844981

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/ben-affleck-real-story-argo-watch-dvd-60281

http://www.examiner.com/article/argo-premieres-washington-dc

http://www.wordandfilm.com/2012/10/the-70s-new-wave-ben-affleck-george-clooney-and-matt-damon-mix-politics-and-pleasure-at-the-argo-premiere/

http://www.kentucky.com/2012/10/11/2367843/argo-great-blend-of-action-humor.html

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/ben-affleck-argo-hard-movie-sell-exclusive-60546

http://www.firstshowing.net/2012/sound-off-ben-afflecks-real-life-thriller-argo-your-thoughts/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/leonardmaltin/argomovie-review

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/review-ben-afflecks-70s-flavored-argo-is-a-terrifically-suspenseful-entertaining-thriller-20121011

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/ben-affleck-says-whitey-bulger-project-with-matt-damon-one-more-picture-away-talks-argo-anxiety-20121010

http://www.wired.com/underwire/2012/10/argo-artifacts/

http://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/movies/sc-mov-argo-movie-review-20121010,0,983178.column

http://www.hitfix.com/awards-campaign/q-a-ben-affleck-on-going-back-to-1980-jimmy-carter-and-the-real-people-behind-argo

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8489869/argo-redemption-ben-affleck

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/ben-afflecks-argo-star-bryan-378259

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/argo-2012-movie-review/

http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2012/10/11/ben-affleck-talks-argo-kevin-smith-fans-and-more-lehane-stories-oscars/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/alan-arkin-takes-afflecks-argo-seriously-its-not-a-spoof-satire-or-parody

http://www.hitfix.com/awards-campaign/q-a-bryan-cranston-on-surprising-the-cia-and-ben-affleck-as-a-director-in-argo


Told you there was a lot.

Couple of notes...I am all about how good "Argo" is.  Tremendously entertaining and great attention to detail.  Funny, shrewd and phenomenally well paced.  Great ensemble work across the board and a seldom seen willingness by the director/leading man to allow the ensemble to do a lot of the heavy lifting.  Alan Arkin seems to be getting the lion's share of attention for potential Oscar consideration (see above) but there is also some for John Goodman and Bryan Cranston who is the guy I think deserves the nod more than anyone else in the film with Scoot McNairy a close  second.

At any rate, if you didn't see "Argo" at Telluride and you didnt catch it thius past weekend...go...now...thank me later...it's very good.


OSCAR THIS AND THAT

Kristopher Tapley (HitFix/InContention) and Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood/IndieWire) have posted their latest Oscar Talk podcast here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-supporting-actress-not-fade-away-biopics-and-small-contenders

and here:
http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-91-not-fade-away-drops-on-nyff-and-surveying-best-supporting-actor

And Gold Derby's Tom O'Neil has been uber busy as he has recorded Oscar prognoticative podcasts with both Pete Hammond of Deadline.com and Susan  Wloszczyna of USA Today.
http://www.goldderby.com/films/news/3485/oscars-academy-awards-predictions-entertainment-news261792538.html

http://www.goldderby.com/films/news/3482/oscars-academy-awards-predictions-entertainment-news-72618953.html


Feinberg Forecast: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/ben-afflecks-argo-oscar-predictions-377402

Awards Daily's Oscar Podcast: http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpodcast/episode3.mp3

Hollywood Elsewhere's Oscar Poker: http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/10/kenny_poker.php



VARIOUS NOTES FROM TFF #39 FILMS

***Marion Cotillard honored again after being one of the is year's Telluride tributees:
http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/roundup-marion-cotillard-to-be-honored-at-gotham-awards

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/moviesnow/la-et-mn-afi-fest-life-of-pi-silver-linings-marion-cotillard-20121011,0,2950444.story

***Hyde Park plays NYFF:
http://www.examiner.com/article/hyde-park-on-the-hudson-premieres-at-new-york-film-fest

***SPC acquires Saudi's "Wadjda":
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118059312?refCatId=13

***"No" getting a lot of "Yes" for Foreign Language Oscar:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/gael-garcia-bernal-no-lead-377644

***"The Gatekeepers" continues to impress:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/erica-abeel/the-gatekeepersand-shin-b_b_1956077.html

***"Stories We Tell" continues strong:
http://www.thestar.com/entertainment/movies/article/1266408--sarah-polley-doc-stories-we-tell-when-blood-is-thicker-than-gossip#

***Dave Poland talks to TFF #39 tributee Mads Mikkelsen:
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/09/dp30-tiff-2012-the-hunt-a-royal-affair-actor-mads-mikkelsen/

***More news on the Central Park Five":
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/new-film-stirs-central-park-rape-case-article-1.1183532

***"Love Marilyn" to HBO:
http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/123173/


COMING ATTRACTIONS

My continuing rock turning to highlight projects that are in development that could make their way to Telluride for TFF#40 or even #41 this week highlights "Jane Got a Gun" since I highlighted Lynne Ramsay's "Mobius" (?) last week...her "Moby Dick in Space" film that is expected to be her next project after "Jane" I thought I'd better mention that film as well as it has a decent chance to be in Telluride in the next year or two...probably a better chance than "Moby in Space".

"Jane Got a Gun" reportedly has Michael Fassbender and Natalie Potrtman on board...two actors who have certainly been featured the last few years in Telluride films ("Hunger", "Shame", "Black Swan" "A Dangerous Method") and, of course Ramsay's "We Nedd to Talk About Kevin" (TFF 2011) led to an Oscar nom for Tilda Swinton.  Ramsay was also iun Telluride in 2002 with "Movern Callar".

So what IS "Jane Got a Gun"?

IMDb has it categorized as "Action. Drama. Western." and the tagline there reads:
"A woman asks her ex-lover for help in order to save her outlaw husband from a gang out to kill him."


"Jane's" IMDb entry: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2140037/

Here's some of the recent buzz concerning "Jane Got a Gun":

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/michael-fassbender-may-star-in-natalie-portman-western-for-lynne-ramsay-20120827

http://www.firstshowing.net/2012/michael-fassbender-joins-natalie-portmans-western-jane-got-a-gun/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/natalie-portman-jane-got-a-gun-lynne-ramsay-365840


More on Thursday.


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