Thursday, September 12, 2013

The People's Telluride/Beginning to Think Oscar

Good Thursday to Everyone....


                                          (from Billington Design Assoc.)

It's a week and a half after the conclusion of TFF #40 and time for me to reveal the results of this year's "People's Telluride" film ratings.  Over the past few days I have been collecting the ratings sent to me by film goers who attended this year's Telluride Film Festival.  I asked respondents to use the same 0-5 scale that I requested be used by the Film Pros.  The Pros' results were posted last Saturday and then again Monday. As with The Pros, a film had to be rated by at least three respondents to make the list.  In cases of ties, the tie was broken in favor of the film that had more responses.  Here are the People's results with the average rating in parenthesis:

(Tim Jenison for Penn and Teller's "Tim's Vermeer" via

1) Tim's Vermeer (4.67)
2) 12 Years a Slave (4.55)
3) Gravity (4.40)
4) The Lunchbox (4.25)
5) Inside Llewyn Davis (4.15)
6) Nebraska (4.08)
7) All is Lost (4.06)
8) The Wind Rises (4.0)
9) Ida (4.0)
10) The Past (3.81)
11) Blue is the Warmest Color (3.75)
12) Tracks (3.64)
13) Prisoners (3.5)
14) Labor Day (3.40)
15) The Galapagos Affair: Satan Came to Eden (3.33)
16) Starred Up (3.25)
17) Palo Alto (3.20)
18) The Invisible Woman (3.19)
19) Before the Winter Chill (2.67)
20) The Unknown Known (2.43)
21) Under the Skin (2.0)

Compare these ratings to The Professional ratings:

Alex Billington/FirstShowing
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Scott Foundas/Variety
Eric Kohn/IndieWire
Tomris Laffly/Film Journal
Eugene Novikov/Film Blather
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

The Results:

(Composite ratings for the film is in parentheses and People's Rank in bracket)

1) 12 Years a Slave (4.7) [2]
2) Blue is the Warmest Color (4.4) [11]
3) Gravity (4.35) [3]
4) Tim's Vermeer (4.3) [1]
5) Nebraska (4.3) [6]
6) All is Lost (4.2) [7]
7) Inside Llewyn Davis (4.1) [5]
8) Starred Up (4.0) [16]
9) The Past (3.9) [10]
10) Labor Day (3.6) [14]
11) Bethlehem (3.6) [nr]
12) Prisoners (3.5) [13]
13) The Lunchbox (3.5) [4]
14) Salinger (3.3) [nr]
15) The Unknown Known (3.3) [20]
16) Palo Alto (3.2) [17]
17) Tracks (3.2) [12]
18) Under the Skin (3.1) [21]
18) (tie) The Wind Rises (3.1) [8]
20) The Invisible Woman (3.0) [18]

The biggest disconnects between the two groups:  The Pros significantly preferred "Blue is the Warmest Color", "Starred Up", "Labor Day" and "The Unknown Known" over the preferences of The People.  Meanwhile, The People substantially preferred "Tim's Vermeer", "The Lunchbox", "Tracks" and "The Wind Rises" compared to the Pros.



Over the next couple of weeks, I'm going to begin to detail the preliminary views from a number of Oscarologists concerning their immediate take about the Oscar prospects for the films that played at TFF #40 this year.  Ultimately this will lead to a posting of a composite of those Oscar experts about the Oscar field as a whole.  This early in the season, I'll focus primarily on the Big 8 categories.  I'll expand the Clearinghouse categories as we move deeper into the season and closer to Oscar nomination morning (Jan. 16th).

We start with HitFix/InContention's Kristopher Tapley and his latest predictions.  He suggests the following nominations for films that played at TFF #40:

"12 Years a Slave": Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costumes, Score and Production Design.  Total-11.  If I were in the Oscar predicting business, this is exactly what I would expect.

"Inside Llewyn Davis": Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Cinematography and Sound Mixing.  Total-4

"Gravity": Best Picture, Director, Actress, Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.  Total-9

"Nebraska": Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.  Total-3

"All is Lost": Best Actor, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.  Total-3

"The Invisible Woman": Costumes. Total-1

"The Wind Rises": Best Animated Feature.  Total-1

"Tim's Vermeer": Best Documentary.  Total-1

"Gloria": Best Foreign Language Film.  Total-1

Total nominations for TFF #40 films: 34

Note: Tapley also has TFF #39 doc "Stories We Tell" as a nominee.

Meanwhile, Sasha Stone from Awards Daily sees it this way (note: Stone does NOT name 5 nominee predictions in every category and hasn't predicted all 21 feature categories):

"12 Years a Slave": Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Costume, Score.  Total-9

"Inside Llewyn Davis": Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original (?) Screenplay (I'm betting this will end up in the "Adapted" category with the Dave Van Ronk book, "The Mayor of McDougal Street" as source material for the Coens), Cinematography, Production Design, Costume.  Total-8

"Gravity": Best Picture, Actress, Director, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Mixing.  Total-7

"Nebraska": Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Score.  Total-8

"All is Lost": Best Picture, Actor.  Total-2

"Labor Day": Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay.  Total-4

Documentary: "The Unknown Known", "Manuscripts Don't Burn".  Total-2

Foreign Language Film: "The Past"  Total-1

Total TFF #40 nominations: 41

Note: Stone also predicts TFF #39 documentary "The Act of Killing" will be nominated.

 As you can see, Stone is much more bullish on "Llewyn Davis", "Labor Day" and Nebraska" than Tapley.

Finally, the very, very early thinking is that TFF #40 may be on pace to provide the largest number of Oscar nominations since I started keeping track of this.


Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter's Awards expert posted his latest Feinberg Forecast yesterday that reflects his thinking post-Telluride, post-Venice and mid-Toronto.  You can find that here:

That's all for now. 

Follow/Like Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

More on Monday...have a great weekend!

No comments: