Thursday, September 26, 2013

The First FAC for 2013/12 Years Revealed/Llewyn Sings Dink's Song/Bethlehem Has a Home

Good Thursday Everyone...


I’m starting the annual collation of Oscar predictions from well known experts for this season with my expected emphasis on the films that played as a part of the TFF #40 program.  As usual, I’ll begin with the Big Eight categories and expand the FAC to the other categories as we move through the season.

As I have for the last couple of years, I use the publicly posted predictions of these Oscar experts:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kris Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon

And here’s what they say as we conclude September...


Last year, the initial Best Picture FAC had all nine eventual nominees listed in the top ten so that’s a good omen for the films that are at the top of this poll.  There have been 9 Best Picture nominees the last two years.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we get 10 this year.  Telluride #40 films are Bold.

1) 12 Years a Slave
2) Gravity
3) American Hustle
4) Captain Phillips
5) Saving Mr. Banks
6) The Wolf of Wall Street***
7) Inside Llewyn Davis
8) Lee Daniel’s The Butler
9) Foxcatcher
10) Nebraska

11) The Monuments Men
12) All is Lost
13) August: Osage County
14) Blue Jasmine
15) The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

***Rumors have been flying this week that Martin Scorsese’s “The Wolf of Wall Street” mind end up being pushed to a 2014 release date which could have a significant impact on the Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay races.

Other thoughts:  I’m personally dubious about “Saving Mr. Banks”.  Also, I’m really hot to see “American Hustle”, “Captain Phillips”, “Foxcatcher” and “The Monuments Men”.  “Walter Mitty” could really be a sleeper as could Spike Jonze’s “Her” and Jean Marc Vallee’s “Dallas Buyers Club”.


1) Steve McQueen/12 Years a Slave
2) Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity
3) David O. Russell/American Hustle
4) Paul Greengrass/Captain Phillips
5) Martin Scorsese/The Wolf of Wall Street (***see note above)

6) Alexander Payne/Nebraska
7) John Lee Hancock/Saving Mr. Banks
8) Lee Daniels/Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Thoughts: It seems to me that the most likely people to disrupt the parade of these eight possible nominees would be the Coen Brothers for “Inside Llewyn Davis”.  Possibly J.C. Chandor for “All is Lost” or Spike Jonze for “Her”.


1) Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine
2) Meryl Streep/August: Osage County
3) Sandra Bullock/Gravity
4) Judi Dench/Philomena
5) Emma Thompson/Saving Mr. Banks

6) Amy Adams/American Hustle
7) Berenice Bejo/The Past

Thoughts: Blanchett is the early (and big) favorite.  Adele Excharopoulos/Blue is the Warmest Color and Kate Winslet/Labor Day seem the most likely to break into the race.


1) Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave
2) Robert Redford/All is Lost
3) Matthew McConnaughey/Dallas Buyers Club
4) Bruce Dern/Nebraska
5) Forest Whitaker/Lee Daniels’ The Butler

6)  Leonardo DiCaprio/The Wolf of Wall Street (***see note above)
7) Tom Hanks/Captain Phillips

Thoughts:  For a race that’s supposed to be tight and competitive, I was surprised at how few men were dominating the nine experts that I use.  Who else might challenge?  Steve Carell in “Foxcatcher” and Idris Elba in “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom” seem to be the only others at this point getting much interest.


1) Oprah Winfrey/Lee Daniels’ The Butler
2) Lupita Nyong’o/12 Years a Slave
3) June Squibb/Nebraska
4) Margo Martindale/August: Osage County
5) Octavia Spencer/Fruitvale Station

6) Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle
7) Julia Roberts/August: Osage County
8) Cameron Diaz/The Counselor
9) Sally Hawkins/Blue Jasmine

Thoughts: Winfrey and Nyong’o have sucked all the oxygen up in this contest and I doubt that will change between now and Oscar night.  Others that could sneak in: Sarah Paulson/12 Years a Slave or Carey Mulligan/Inside Llewyn Davis


1) American Hustle
2) Inside Llewyn Davis
3) Blue Jasmine
4) Saving Mr. Banks
5) Her

6) Nebraska
7) Fruitvale Station
8) Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Thoughts: Screenplay categories are notoriously dodgy to puzzle out.  No script in this category has a clear edge in the early going.


1) 12 Years a Slave
2) Before Midnight
3) Captain Phillips
4) The Wolf of Wall Street (***see note above)
5) Foxcatcher

6) Philomena
7) The Monuments Men

Thoughts: It’s telling to me that “August: Osage County” has almost no early support in this category.

Overall, in the Big Eight categories, the experts collectively have "12 Years a Slave" with five nominations, "Gravity" with four, Nebraska with three and two other possibles, "Inside Llewyn Davis" with two, "All is Lost" with one and one other possible and "The Past" with one possible nomination.  That has TFF #40 films with 14 nominations and four other possibilities.


 *** As a matter of fact, here's one of the posts from earlier this week that suggests that "The Wolf of Wall Street" maybe on the way out of a 2013 release date and off of this year's Oscar charts (from The Playlist):


Journos and bloggers continue to unearth information from the film makers and cast members of Steve McQueen's "12 Years a Slave" as is evidenced by the following:

Alex Billington at interviews McQueen and his star Chiwetel Ejiofor in this post from earlier this week:

Shadow and Act's Tambay A. Obenson profiles newcomer (and Likely Best Supporting Actress nominee) Lupita Nyong'o.  That profile and teases of future interviews to come are linked here:


It's n secret that I loved the Coen Brothers' "Inside Llewyn Davis" and I also loved the music that is the backbone of the film.  The soundtrack doesn't drop until Nov. 12 but those of us that attended the Patron brunch this year were lucky enough to score a vinyl EP that includes 6 songs from the film ("Five Hundred Miles", "The Death of Queen Jane", "The Auld Triangle", "Green Green Rocky Road", "Farewell" and "Fare the Well/Dink's Song").

Tuesday, a number of press outlets and blogs included a link to the Marcus Mumford/Oscar Issac collaboration "Fare the Well (Dink's Song" that has been featured in the "ILD" trailer.

You can hear it here from Rope of Silicon or The Playlist:


Israeli thriller "Bethlehem" that played as a part of TFF 340 to generally warm reception has reportedly been acquired by Adopt Films according to this post from The Star Tribune:

More on Monday...hope you all have a fantastic weekend!

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