Thursday, December 19, 2013

The Film Awards Clearinghouse 2013 Vol.4 (Part One)/Critics Say

Good Thursday to All...

I bring you the latest update from The Film Awards Clearinghouse post Golden Globe nominations, SAG nominations, NBR, AFI, New York Film Critics Circle, L.A. Film Critics.  Today we'll look at The Big Eight categories and in a special Friday edition of MTFB/FAC, tomorrow I'll pass along the latest on another 13 Oscar categories for feature films.

I use the publicly posted predictions of these Oscar experts:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kris Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon

The films position on the last FAC is in parenthesis.  Telluride #40 films are Bold.


1) 12 Years a Slave (1)
2) Gravity (2)
3) American Hustle (7)
4) Nebraska (6)
5) Captain Phillips (3)
6) The Wolf of Wall Street (8)
7) Saving Mr. Banks (4)
8) Inside Llewyn Davis (7)
9) Her (11)
10) Dallas Buyers Club (14)
11) Philomena (New)
12) Lee Daniels The Butler (9)
13) Fruitvale Station (15)
14) Blue Jasmine (13)
15) August: Osage County (12)

Falling Out: Al is Lost

Hot: American Hustle, Nebraska, Wolf of Wall Street, Her, Dallas Buyers Club, Philomena and Fruitvale Station.
Cold: Captain Phillips, Saving Mr. Bank, Lee Daniels The Butler and August: Osage County

Comment:  There has been a lot of positioning but 14 of the top 15 from a month ago remain on The FAC Best Picture list.  Only one switch out but it was a large scale one as "Philomena" jumped back on the list from nowhere to the #11 spot and "All is Lost" dropped big from #10 all the way off the top 15.

In an earlier post I mentioned that I didn't think that "Saving Mr. Banks" seemed to me to have the gravitas to make the cut for a Best Picture nomination.  Well, gravitas or no, it seems to be losing some steam.

All along this season, I have been softly floating the notion that there could be a full dance card on the morning of Jan. 16 when the Oscar nominations are announced.  By that I mean that there could be a full contingent of 10 Best Picture nominations.  Over the last month, I've backed off that.  Now, I think that the nine nominations we've seen the past two years might not even happen.

For the blogs purposes of totaling and calculation, I'm still going to assume 10 but at this point, 7-9 is probably more likely.


1) Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity (1)
2) Steve McQueen/12 Years a Slave (2)
3) Paul Greengrass/Capt. Phillips (3)
4) Martin Scorsese/Wolf of Wall Street (8)
5) David O. Russell/American Hustle (3)
6) Alexander Payne/Nebraska (6)
7) Joel and Ethan Coen/Inside Llewyn Davis (5)
8) Spike Jonze/Her (10)
9) John Lee Hancock/Saving Mr. Banks (7)
10) Lee Daniels/Lee Daniels The Butler (New)

Falling Out; J.C. Chandor/All is Lost

Hot: Scorsese, Jonze
Not: Russell, Coens, Hancock.

Comment: The directors race largely mirrors the Best Picture picture, although, I personally think David O. Russell is very likely to be nominated.  Also, the collective group of bloggers that I use to come up with The FAC continues to predict, by a narrow margin, a split between Best Picture and Director.  I don't think that will happen.  My call is "12 Years" in both categories.


1) Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave (1)
2) Bruce Dern/Nebraska (5)
3) Matthew McConnaughey/Dallas Buyers Club (3)
4) Robert Redford/All is Lost (2)
5) Tom Hanks/Captain Phillips (4)
6) Forest Whitaker/Lee Daniels The Butler (6)  (TIE)
6) Leonardo DiCaprio/Wolf of Wall Street (8)
8) Christian Bale/American Hustle (7)
9) Oscar Isaac/Inside Llewyn Davis (9)
10) Michael B. Jordan/Fruitvale Station (10)

Hot: DERN, DiCaprio
Not: Redford

Comment: No one is hotter in any category in The FAC than Bruce Dern who has gone from a "maybe" to "likely" as a nominee over the last month.  Redford's chances seem to have dropped because of his lack of a SAG nomination last week.  I still think he gets in.


1) Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine (1)
2) Sandra Bullock/Gravity (2) 
3) Emma Thompson/Saving Mr. Banks (4)
4) Judi Dench/Philomena (5)
5) Meryl Streep/August: Osage County (3)
6) Amy Adams/American Hustle (6)
7) Brie Larson/Short Term 12 (New)
8) Adele Exarchopolous/Blue is the Warmest Color (7)
9) Kate Winslet/Labor Day (9)
10) Julie Delpy/Before Midnight (8)

Falling Out: Berenice Bejo/The Past

Hot: Larson
Not: Streep, Delpy

Comment: The Brie Larson express has pulled into the station.  Is it enough for her to leapfrog into the top five and get a nomination?  Probably not.  Though if I were guessing, I might suggests that Thompson might also be vulnerable.


1) Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club (2)
2) Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave (1)
3) Barkhad Abdi/Captain Phillips (4)
4) Tom Hanks/Saving Mr. Banks (3)
5) Daniel Bruhl/Rush (5)
6) James Gandolfini/Enough Said (6)
7) Jonah Hill/Wolf of Wall Street (8)
8) Bradley Cooper/American Hustle (7)
9) Will Forte/Nebraska (New)
10) Jake Gyllenhaal/Prisoners (New)

Falling Out: Goodman and Renner.

Hot: The newbys: Forte and Gyllenhaal

Comment: Will Forte benefits from a good deal of notice over the past two weeks and maybe from Bruce Dern's coattails.


1) Lupita Nyong'o/12 Years a Slave (1)
2) Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle (5)
3) Oprah Winfrey/Lee Daniels The Butler (2)
4) June Squibb/Nebraska (3)
5) Julia Roberts/August: Osage County (4)
6) Octavia Spencer/Fruitvale Station (7)
7) Sally Hawkins/Blue Jasmine (8)
8) Margo Martindale/August: Osage County (6)
9) Scaelett Johansson/Her (New)
10) Margot Robbie/Wolf of Wall Street (New)

Falling Out: Mulligan and Paulson.

Hot: Johansson, Robbie and especially Jennifer Lawrence
Cold: Martindale

Comment: Lawrence moves into serious contention as a threat to Nyong'o.


1) Inside Llewyn Davis (2)
2) Nebraska (3)
3) American Hustle (4)
4) Her (5)
5) Blue Jasmine (1)
6) Saving Mr. Banks (6)
7) Gravity (7)
8) Dallas Buyers Club (New)
9) Enough Said (10)
10) Lee Daniels The Butler (9)

Falling Out: Fruitvale Station

Hot: DBC
Not: Blue Jasmine

Comment: I'm still a bit amazed that "Gravity" is on the screenplay conversation.  It's the weakest thing about the film.


1) 12 Years a Slave (1)
2) Captain Phillips (2)
3) The Wolf of Wall Street (6)
4) Philomena (5)
5) Before Midnight (3)
6) August: Osage County (4)
7) Blue is the Warmest Color (7)
8) Short Term 12 (9)
9) Labor Day (8)
10) Lone Survivor (New)

Falling Out: The Book Thief

Hot: Wolf
Not: Before Midnight

Comment: Wolf of Wall Street is clearly benefiting up and down the categories from finally being screened for press and industry members.

Overall in the Big Eight categories Telluride #40 films are predicted to get 16 nominations with another 9 possibilities.  Here's the breakdown

12 Years a Slave-6 nominations: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay.

Nebraska-4 nominations and another 2 possibles: Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.  Possibles Director and Supporting Actor.

Gravity-3 nominations and another possible: Best Picture, Director, Actress and an Original Screenplay nomination is possible.

Inside Llewyn Davis-2 nominations and another 2 possible: Best Picture and Original Screenplay.  Possibles are Direction and Actor.

All is Lost-1 nomination: Best Actor

Other possibles:

Labor Day: Actress and Adapted Screenplay
Blue is the Warmest Color: Adapted Screenplay
Prisoners: Best Supporting Actor

TOMORROW I'll post the 13 other feature categories from The FAC.


As you might expect, the last two weeks have seen a slew of Critics awards announced and Top Ten lists espoused.  There have also been a good number of outlets that have collected critical response and collated them.  I've chosen to focus on two and pass the links to them along to you readers.  Film Comment and Indie Wire/CriticWire.

As you might also expect, I have focused specifically on where TFF #40 (Tff #39) films landed on those composite lists.  From Film Comment, the collected wisdom of 120 critics says this about TFF films:

#1 was "Inside Llewyn Davis"
#2 was "12 Years a Slave"
"The Act of Killing" (TFF #39) was #4
"Gravity" was #7
"Frances Ha" (TFF #39) was #9
"Blue is the Warmest Color" was #12
"Stories We Tell" (TFF #39) was #16
"Nebraska" was #18
"No" (TFF #39) was #23
"All is Lost" was #26
"The Past" was #40
"The Wind Rises" was #42

The Film Comment via Variety complete list is here:

From the IndieWire Top 50 list Telluride films listed included:

"12 Years a Slave" at #1
"Inside Llewyn Davis" at #2
"Gravity" at #5
"The Act of Killing" at #6
"Blue is the Warmest Color" at #8
"Frances Ha" at #10
"Stories We Tell" at #12
"Nebraska" at #17
"All is Lost" at #19
"The Wind Rises" at #29
"The Past" at #30
"No" at #35
"The Hunt" (TFF #39) at #37
Wadjda (TFF #39) at #46

The complete IndieWire list can be found here:

More tomorrow and again on Monday...

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