Second Set of 2025-26 Oscar Predictions: Lead Acting / New Clip and Posters from Frankenstein / Visitations: Hawke and Berger

SECOND SET OF OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR 2025-26: LEAD ACTING

Today I am continuing my first wave of Oscar predictions for this year with the focus on the Lead Acting categories.  All contenders from TFF #52 films are listed in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value

3) Cynthia Erico/Wicked: For Good

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia

5) Chase Infiniti/OBAA

Other possibles: Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee, Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue, Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo Di Caprio/OBAA

2) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent

4) Jeremy Allen White/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

Other possibles: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon, Jesse Plemons/Bugonia.

NEW CLIP AND POSTERS FROM FRANKENSTEIN

The clip from YouTube:

Posters:

VISITATIONS: ETHAN HAWKE AND EDWARD BERGER

Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon from SPC and YouTube.

Edward Berger for Ballad of a Small Player from TIFF and YouTube.

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MTFB'S First Oscar Predictions for 2025-26: Best Picture and Direction / New U.S. Trailer for The Secret Agent / Visitations: Blue Moon

 MTFB'S FIRST OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS FOR 2025-26

Well, we're finally here.  Seven weeks after the conclusion of TFF #52 it's time to start making some predix myself for the coming Oscar Season.  Today we'll roll out Best Picture and Best Direction.  We'll follow up with the Lead Acting categories on Thursday and then next week we'll the Supporting Acting categories and then the Screenplay categories.  We'll keep the focus on these eight "above the Line" categories for a bit before expending to eventually include all categories prior to Oscar nomination morning on January 22, 2026.  

TFF #52 films are Bold.  Here we go...

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Marty Supreme

6) Jay Kelly

7) A House of Dynamite

8) It Was Just an Accident

9) Wicked: For Good

10) The Secret Agent

Other Possibles: Bugonia, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and Avatar: Fire and Ice.

Should these prove out to be the top ten it would mean half the nominated field for Best Picture played at TFF 52 which would be new record for TFF films to be BP nominated.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value

5) Jafar Pahani/It Was Just an Accident

Other Possibles: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Kleber Mendonca Filho/The Secret Agent, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly.

NEW U.S. TRAILER FOR THE SECRET AGENT

NEON has released a new trailer for Kebler Mendonca Filho's The Secret Agent.  Here that is from YouTube:

VISITATIONS: BLUE MOON

Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater for Blue Moon from Awards Radar.

Bobby Canavale on Blue Moon from Awards Radar.

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Final Look at Oscar Experts Best Picture Predictions: Screen Rant / Best Picture Scoreboard / Interviews from The New York Film Festival (Jay Kelly and Sentimental Value) / Final Trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

 FINAL LOOK AT OSCAR EXPERTS BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS: SCREEN RANT

 Here's a last look at what Oscar Experts are predicting for Best Picture,  These come from Screen Rant and were updated last Friday (TFF films are in Bold):

1) Hamnet

2) One Battle After Another

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Marty Supreme

6) A House of Dynamite

7) Wicked: For Good

8) The Secret Agent

9) Avatar: Fire and Ask

10) Jay Kelly

So Screen Rant has four TFF #52 films in the final ten for Best Picture which would tie for the record number of Telluride films nominated for BP in a single.

Stay tuned for my first jump into the prediction pool on Monday with my takes on Best Picture and Direction.

Here's the link to the Screen Rant prediction page.

BEST PICTURE SCORECARD

Let's update our chart of the all of the BP predictions we have gathered so far.  To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW),  Awards Radar (AR), Next Best Picture (NBP), The Contending (TC) and Screen Rant (SC),  here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions:

Hamnet (8): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Sentimental Value (8): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Jay Kelly (7): GD, THR, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Bugonia (5): GD, THR, V, AR, TC

It Was Just Accident (5): GD, THR, AW, NBP, TC

The Secret Agent (4): THR, V, NBP, SR

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

INTERVIEWS FROM THE NEW YORK FILM FESTIVAL

From YouTube:

Noah Baumbach, George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern for Jay Kelly.

Joachim Trier and Noah Baumbach for Sentimental Value and Jay Kelly.

FINAL TRAILER FOR SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

Just ahead of its Oct. 24th release comes the final trailer for Scott Cooper's Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere. Here it is from You Tube:

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Oscar Race 2026-The Experts: The Contending / Best Picture Scorecard / NYFF Interviews for TFF Films / Visitations: Dickinson and Moura

 OSCAR RACE 2026-THE EXPERTS:THE CONTENDING

I'm beginning to close down my round-up of some of the Oscar prediction websites and their view of which films will be best picture nominated with a focus on what TFF #52 films are in play.  Today we look at Mark Johnson of The Contending.  Mark is also featured as an Oscar Expert for Gold Derby.  Here's how he is handicapping the nominations for BP.  (TFF #52 films are in Bold):

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Wicked: For Good

6) It Was Just an Accident

7) Marty Supreme

8) House of Dynamite

9) Jay Kelly

10) Bugonia

So Mark has five TFF films getting nominated which would be an all time record for number of TFF films nominated for BP in one year.

BEST PICTURE SCORECARD

Let's update our chart of the all of the BP predictions we have gathered so far.  To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW),  Awards Radar (AR), Next Best Picture (NBP) and The Contending (TC), here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions:

Hamnet (7): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC

Sentimental Value (7): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC

Jay Kelly (6): GD, THR, AW, AR, NBP, TC

Bugonia (5): GD, THR, V, AR, TC

It Was Just Accident (5): GD, THR, AW, NBP, TC

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V, NBP

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

NYFF INTERVIEWS FOR TFF FILMS

Via YouTube:

JAFAR PANAHI FOR IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Interviewed by Martin Scorsese)

JEREMY ALLEN WHITE AND SCOTT COOPER FOR SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

VISITATIONS:

Harris Dickinson for Urchin from Time.com

Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent from Anne Thompson of Indiewire

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Checking the Oscar Experts: Next Best Picture / Trailers: Bugonia, PiIlion and If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

 CHECKING THE OSCAR EXPERTS: NEXT BEST PICTURE

With the New York Film Festival comes to a conclusion this weekend, we continue our series of check-ins with a variety of Oscar prognosticators on the Best Picture race with Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture.  Neglia just updated his predictions last Wednesday.  Here's the films he currently predicts will be Best Picture nominated (TFF #52 films are Bold):

1) One Battle After Another

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Marty Supreme

5) Sentimental Value

6) Jay Kelly

7) It Was Just an Accident

8) Song Sung Blue

9) Wicked: For Good

10) Avatar: Fire and Ash

So Matt has a record tying four TFF films predicted to be nominated for Best Picture.

Here is the link to Next Best Picture's Oscar Predictions.

BEST PICTURE SCOREBOARD

Let's update our chart of the all of the BP predictions from the accumulated predictions we have gathered so far.  To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW),  Awards Radar (AR) and Next Best Picture (NBP) here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions:

Hamnet (6): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP

Sentimental Value (6): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP

Jay Kelly (5): GD, THR, AW, AR, NBP

Bugonia (4): GD, THR, V, AR

It Was Just Accident (4): GD, THR, AW

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V, NBP

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

TRAILERS FROM BUGONIA, PILLION AND IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU

From YouTube:

BUGONIA

PILLION

IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU

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Checking the Oscar Experts: Awards Radar / New Trailer for Del Toro's Frankenstein / Visitations: Clooney, Sandler and Hawke and More

CHECKING THE OSCAR EXPERTS: AWARDS RADAR

As the New York Film Festival passes its halfway point, we continue our series of check-ins of a variety of Oscar prognosticators on the Best Picture race with Joey Magidson of Awards Radar .  Magidson just updated his predictions last Wednesday.  Here's what he currently will be Best Picture nominated (TFF #52 films are Bold):

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sentimental Value

4) A House of Dynamite

5) Sinners

6) Jay Kelly

7) Bugonia

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

9) Wicked: For Good

10) Avatar: Fire and Ash

So Magidson is currently predicting five TFF #52 films to pick up BP nominations which would be the most TFF BP noms in a single year.

Other TFF #52 films that are within striking distance per Magidson:

11) It Was Just an Accident

18) Frankenstein

19) Blue Moon

BEST PICTURE SCOREBOARD

To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW) and Awards Radar (AR) here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions.

Hamnet (5): GD, THR, V, AW, AR

Sentimental Value (5): GD, THR, V, AW, AR

Jay Kelly (4): GD, THR, AW, AR

Bugonia (4): GD, THR, V, AR

It Was Just Accident (3): GD, THR, AW

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

NEW TRAILER FOR DEL TORO'S FRANKENSTEIN

From YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Jay Kelly Q+A from the New York Film Festival with Clooney, Sandler, Dern, Baumbach and More

Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater for Blue Moon from The Making Of

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value from Pop Culture Confidential

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Checking with Oscar Experts: Awards Watch/ Scoreboard for Best Picture / Clip: Born to Run / Visitations: Behind the Scenes: Springsteen and Paul Mescal and The History of Sound / New Posters: Jay Kelly, Springsteen, Frankenstein and Pillion

CHECKING WITH OSCAR EXPERTS: AWARDS WATCH

We continue today with our rundown of Oscar gurus and their early line Best Picture nominee predictions as we move through the New York Film Festival which will end the wave of the four major fall film fests: Venice, Telluride, Toronto and NYFF.

Today's view comes from Erik Anderson who runs Awards Watch.  Here are his current predictions for Best Picture.  TFF #52 films are Bold.

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Jay Kelly

6) Marty Supreme

7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

8) It Was Just an Accident

9) Frankenstein

10) Wicked: For Good

Other TFF #52 in the 11-20 spots:

13) The Secret agent

15) Bugonia

This set of predictions would put six TFF #52 titles in the list of ten nominees which would be a TFF record.

The complete list from Awards Watch as well as Best Direction predictions can be found here.

SCOREBOARD FOR BEST PICTURE 

To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V) and Awards Watch (AW) here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions.

Hamnet (4): GD, THR, V, AW

Sentimental Value (4): GD, THR, V, AW

Jay Kelly (3): GD, THR, AW

Bugonia (3): GD, THR, V

It Was Just Accident (3): GD, THR, AW

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (1): AW

CLIP: BORN TO RUN FROM SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

From 20th Century Studios and YouTube, a clip of Born to Run:

VISITATIONS

BEHIND THE SCENES OF SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

From YouTube:

PAUL MESCAL FOR THE HISTORY OF SOUND FROM INDIEWIRE:

Paul Mescal on The History of Sound.

NEW POSTERS

JAY KELLY:

SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE:

FRANKENSTEIN:

PILLION:

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