MTFB Oscar Update: the Big Eight's Second Round / Visitations: Hamnet and Sentimental Value

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE:THE BIG EIGHT'S SECOND ROUND

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Frankenstein (6)

7) The Secret Agent (7)

8) Bugonia (8)

9) Train Dreams (9)

10) F1 (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You (2)

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue (5)

5) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent (4)

4) Michael B. Jordan/Sinneres (3)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

3) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners (3)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (2)

3) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another (3)

4) Delroy Lindo/Sinners (4)

5) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Blue Moon (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

This and that: Two minor moves in the Acting categories mark the only changes in these categories since their last posting on Feb. 9th.  Kate Hudson and Wagner Moura both move a spot in the Best Lead categories.  Otherwise the status quo remains everywhere else.

VISITATIONS

HAMNET:

Chloe Zhao from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao and Sam Mendes from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/global/sam-mendes-chloe-zhao-emotional-cost-directing-hamnet-1236664653/

Jesse Buckley from Deadline.

https://deadline.com/2026/02/jessie-buckley-hamnet-paul-mescal-interview-1236719350/

SENTIMENTAL VALUE:

Stellan Skarsgard from Indiewire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/stellan-skarsgard-career-interview-1235179293/

Stellan Skarsgard from Awards Radar

https://awardsradar.com/2026/02/18/interview-stellan-skarsgard-discusses-his-career-and-first-oscar-nomination-for-sentimental-value/

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/awards/inga-ibsdotter-lilleaas-sentimental-value-bad-bunny-1236662568/

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas from Awards Radar.

https://awardsradar.com/2026/02/14/interview-inga-ibsdotter-lilleaas-discusses-sentimental-value-and-her-first-oscar-nomination/

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MTFB Oscar Take: First Predix for the Seven Remaining Feature Categories /Is Hamnet Still Viable for Best Picture? / Visitations: Hamnet

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: FIRST PREDIX FOR THE SEVEN REMAINING FEATURE CATEGORIES

Over the couple of posts I have loading my picks to win the Oscar 14 Feature Categories. Today we get in the first predictions for the remaining seven features categories. TFF films are in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Sinners

2) One Battle After Another

3) Train Dreams

4) Marty Supreme

5) Frankenstein

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another

2) F1

3) Sinners

4) Marty Supreme

5) Sentimental Value

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Marty Supreme

5) One Battle After Another

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Marty Supreme

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) The Smashing Machine

4) The Ugly Stepsisters

5) Kokuho

SOUND

1) F1

2) Sinners

3) One Battle After Another

4) Sinners

5) Sirat

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash

2) F1

3) Sinners

4) Marty Supreme

5) Jurassic World Rebirth

Thoughts:

TFF films win six Oscars if these initial predictions are 100% correct.

Frankenstein (3): Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

Sentimental Value (2): Supporting Actor and International Feature

Hamnet (1): Best Actress.

Overall MTFB currently has the rest of Oscar winners predicted as follows:

One Battle After Another (5): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

Sinners (4): Casting, Original Screenplay, Score and Cinematography.

K-Pop Demon Hunters (2): Best Animated Feature, Song.

And single wins for:

Marty Supreme: Best Actor.

The Perfect Neighbor: Best Documentary.

F1: Sound.

Avatar: Fire and Ash: Visual Effects.

Tightest categories: Best Picture, Casting, Cinematography, Editing and Costumes.

IS HAMNET STILL VIABLE FOR BEST PICTURE

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao with James Cameron for Hamnet from Indiwire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/watch-james-cameron-chloe-zhao-talk-hamnet-1235179180/

I'm an unabashed fan of Chloe Zhao's Hamnet.  While almost all of the big time Oscar pundits have the race down to a dogfight between Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler's Sinners for the top prize on March 15th (and you can see above that I'm currently predicting OBAA), I still think there might be a path wherein Hamnet emerges with Best Pic on Oscar night. 

And, it turns out, I'm not entirely alone. There are others who have dared suggest that it could happen: Cory Woodruff/For the Win/USA Today.

Come along with me...here be reasons:

1) The Preferential Ballot... Where do voters for OBAA, Sinners and Sentimental Value put Hamnet on their ballots?  A lot of #2's from those films could boost Hamnet's chances.

2) Buckley will get Hamnet on the Board...She's maybe the biggest lock for any of the 24 awards on Oscar night.  And if Hamnet/Zhao/O'Farrell also grab the Best Adapted Screenplay...lookout.

3) BAFTA is coming...I can certainly see Hamnet overperforming on their Home Field.  And as has been pointed out in other quarters, the Brits are the largest "foreign" bloc in the Academy.  Say Hamnet wins Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Actress, Supporting Actor and  Adapted Screenplay on Feb. 22nd...just four days before the final Oscar voting starts...again, lookout.

4) Hamnet's won some serious stuff...Best Film/Drama at the Golden Globes, Toronto's Audience Award and, dare I say it...Hamnet topped MTFB's People's and Pros polls.

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao with James Cameron for Hament from Indiewire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/watch-james-cameron-chloe-zhao-talk-hamnet-1235179180/

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MTFB Oscar Take: Second Wave Winners' Predictions / Ghost Elephants Trailer / Behind the Scenes: Hamnet

 MTFB OSCAR TAKE: SECOND WAVE OF WINNERS' PREDICTIONS

I started Monday with the first pass on predicting what films will win Oscars on March 15th.  Today we extend those predictions to six more categories: Casting, International Feature, Animated feature, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Original Song.  Here's where MTFB is right now for those categories.  As always TFF films are in Bold.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners

2) One Battle After Another

3) Marty Supreme

4) Hamnet

5) The Secret Agent

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value

2) The Secret Agent

3) It Was Just an Accident

4) Sirat

5) The Voice of Hund Rajab

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters

2) Zootopia 2

3) Arco

4) Little Amelie or the Character of rain

5) Elio

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor

2) The Alabama Solution

3) Come See Me in the Good Light

4) Mr. Nobody Against Putin

5) Cutting Through Rocks

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners

2) One Battle After Another

3) Frankenstein

4) Hamnet

5) Bugonia

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K-Pop Demon Hunters

2) I Lied to You/Sinners

3) Dear Me/Dianne Warren: Relentless

4) Train Dreams/Train Dreams

5) Sweet Dreams of Joy/Viva Vivaldi

Thoughts: It seems like the only semi-competitive category among these six is Best Casting.  All of the other five have the #1 film in great shape to pick up and Oscar on Mar. 15th.

Nest Monday, the remaining seven feature film categories.

    

GHOST ELEPHANTS TRAILER

Werner Herzog, as is often the case at Telluride, sprung a new documentary at TFF #52.  Ghost Elephants.  National Geographic dropped a trailer for the project on Tuesday.  Here it is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoOD-2Wn7ik

BEHIND THE SCENES: HAMNET

Here's a "Behind the Scenes' Look at Hamnet from Screen rant.

https://x.com/screenrant/status/2021253073956405645

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MTFB First Predictions for Oscar Winners

MTFB FIRST PREDICTIONSFOR OSCAR WINNERS

Here is the first set of what I think is going to happen on the evening of March 15th at the 98th Oscar ceremony.  We'll start with the eight "above-the-line categories.  TFF films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Sentimental Value

5) Marty Supreme

6) Frankenstein

7) The Secret Agent

8) Bugonia

9) Train Dreams

10) F1

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia

5) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another

3) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

4) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons

3) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value

2) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein

3) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another

4) Delroy Lindo/Sinners

5) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners

2) Sentimental Value

3) Marty Supreme

4) It Was Just an Accident

5) Blue Moon

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Train Dreams

4) Bugonia

5) Frankenstein

This and that:

***OBAA is projected to win three of these eight categories.  It's the only film projected to win more than one. among these eight categories.

***TFF has 23 nominees among these eight categories.  Jesse Buckley looks like the only TFF win.

***As a matter of fact, Best Actress goes to a TFF film unless Kate Hudson pulls an upset.

***The only close races here is Best Picture which is a tight race between OBAA and Sinners.  The rest of the seven other categories seem set right now.

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Spying on Cannes / Visitations: Hamnet

SPYING ON CANNES 

We continue to be in the "in-between times".  That is to say between the Oscar nomination announcement and the actual Oscars...also the announcement of the lineup for the Cannes Film Festival.  So one of the things I like to do here at MTFB is try to keep an eye on the speculation about what will play at Cannes.  As frequent readers know, the overlap between films that screen in May in France and then Labor Day at Telluride is usually pronounced.

So, today we take our annual first look at the Cannes projection list from Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel.  Form that list of films, here are what seem to me the most likely TFF #53 players:

Jack of Spades/J. Coen

Paper Tiger/Gray

The Way of the Wind/Malick

Mintaul/Zvyagnistev

Parallel Tales/Farhadi

Coward/Dhont

1949/Pawlikowski

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda

Butterfly Jam/Balagov

The Basics of Philosophy/Schrader

Untitled Mike Leigh/Leigh

On Land and Sea/Palmason

The Long Winter/Haigh

Bucking Fastard/Herzog

At the Sea/Mundruczo

  

And among possible French films at Cannes:

If Love Should Die/Hansen-Love

Moulin/Nemes

Ruimy's complete list is linked here.

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Zhao, Spielberg and Mendes on Hamnet.

Behind the Scenes of Hamnet from Collider.

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The Playlist 150 / Visitations: The Secret Agent

 THE PLAYLIST 150

I'm continuing our gaze ahead to TFF #53 with a look today at The Playlist's 150 most anticipated films. I'm scouring that list for looking for titles that might be prime candidates for inclusion at TFF.  I have them listed below with their "position on The Playlist list in parentheses.  Director's last name is also included.

So away we go...

135) The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hyne (Branagh)

81) The Unknown (Harari)

72) The basics of Philosophy (Schrader)

60) Look Back and/or Sheep in the Box (Kore-eda)

46) Parallel tales (Farhadi)

45) The Way of the Wind (Malick)

44) A Long Winter (Haigh)

28) Bucking Fastard (Herzog)

25) At the Sea (Mundruczo)

18) The Social Reckoning (Fincher)

14) Jack of spades (J. Coen)

13) Artificial (Guadagnino)

7) The Drama (Borgli)

6) Paper Tiger (Gray)

3) Digger (Inarritu)

You can find the complete list here.

VISITTATIONS: THE SECRET AGENT

Two interviews for the Oscar nominated film:

Kleber Mendonca Filho from The New Yorker.

Kleber Mendonca Filho from The Contending.

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