Oscar Clearinghouse #2

Three weeks since my first post and interest is beginning to increase. I have the latest compilation of Oscar picks from a number of the better known Oscar websites. Here's the new run-down (with Telluride films in bold):

Best Pic: Australia, Benjamin Button, Milk, Revolutionary Road and Frost/Nixon

Also: Slumdog Millionaire, The Changeling, The Dark Knight, Doubt, and The Reader.

Comment: Milk and Button swap places, Slumdog has moved up significantly. Doubt, Defiance and The Soloist have fallen back...The Soloist & Defiance have fallen completely off the top ten list.

Best Direction: Fincher/Button, Luhrmann/Australia, Van Sant/Milk, Eastwood/Changeling, and Nolan/Knight

Also: Howard/Frost, Mendes/Revolutionary, Boyle/Slumdog, Shanley/Doubt and Daldry/Reader

Comment: A lot of Eastwood support despite seemingly weak feelings about the film for Best Pic. Christopher Nolan's stock has risen for Dark Knight quite a lot the last 3 weeks. And Danny Boyle has a big boost as well due to the great reactions at Telluride and Toronto.

Actor: Langella/Frost, Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Hoffman/Doubt, DeCaprio/Revolutionary.

Also: Pitt/Button, Jenkins/Visitor, Mortenson/Road, Del Toro/Che, Brolin/W

Comment: Langella seems like a total lock even this far out. Rourke has risen a lot since Toronto, Pitt falls back some...And we don't know what category Hoffman will end up in... which makes this difficult...others also in the same boat include Michael Sheen, Jamie Foxx, and Robert Downey, Jr.

Actress: Streep/Doubt, Jolie/Changeling, Winslet/Revolutionary, Hathaway/Rachel, Kidman/Australia

Also: Thomas/Loved You, Hawkins/Happy, Leo/Frozen, Blanchett/Button, Winslet/Reader

Comment: Blanchett is in the same situation as Hoffman et. al....Maybe Lead, maybe Supporting. This race seems very fluid at this point and unlike Langella in the male lead category, no one seems to have a nomination locked down at this point.

Supporting Actor: Ledger/Knight, Smit-McPhee/Road, Downey/Soloist, Shannon/Revolutionary, Foxx-Soloist

Also: Franco/Milk, Sheen/Frost, Brolin/Milk, Schreiber/Definace, Malkovich/Changeling

Comment: Ledger continues to dominate. Everyone else is fighting a close battle and this category is likely to be affected by decisions about where to position Hoffman, Sheen, Downey, Foxx...

Supporting Actress: Cruz/Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Henson/Button, Tomei/Wrestler, Farmiga/Truth.

Also: Adams/Doubt, Bates/Revolutionary, DeWitt/Rachel, Winger/Rachel, Zylberstein/Loved You.

Comment: Tomei has come on like gang busters. Zylberstein is new to the list.

Adapted Screenplay: Frost/Nixon, Button, The Road, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire.

Also: Doubt, Dark Knight, Defiance, The Reader, and Body of Lies.

Comment: Slumdog jumps into the actual nominee list.

Original Screenplay: Milk, Australia, Wall-E, Barcelona, The Changeling.

Also: Visitor, Synecdoche NY, Happy-Go-Lucky, Rachel, Soloist

Comment: Wall-E is the big mover here and I kind of wonder why it wasn't getting more love in this category a month ago...it's going to be on a ton of top ten list at the end of the year.

Telluride mentions on this posting in all categories: 4 nominations and 7 hovering just below.

Oscar Clearinghouse #1

Well...Telluride and Toronto are over and it's time to start thinking about awards season. I've done the first analysis of the guessperts and as the season moves along, I'll add more prognosticators into the matrix. I'll update every 2-3 weeks or so, until we get closer and then update weekly.





The Telluride link to Oscar has been fairly prevalent the past 5 years, but this year that's expected to be less likely because of the smaller number of American films at Telluride. However, after the first run though, it seems that Telluride may still be pretty impactful. Last year Telluride films received 23 Oscar noms...the year before I think it was 17. Looking at this year's first combination chart shows 6 solid noms in the Big 8 categories with Telluride ties and another 4 possibles lurking...and that doesn't include the foreign film Oscar possibles and even an animation nom possibilty.





Of course, this will all mutate before the announcement of the nominees and probably drastically.





Here's what the first wave of predictions are pointing toward with Telluride connections in bold:





Best Pic...Australia, Milk, Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road and Frost/Nixon


Other possibles: Doubt, Defiance, The Changeling, The Soloist, The Dark Knight and Slumdog Millionaire (riding a wave of popular and critical success out of Telluride and into Toronto)





Best Director: Gus Van Sant, Baz Luhrmann, David Fincher, Clint Eastwood and Ron Howard.


Other directors in play: Christopher Nolan, Sam Mendes, Jonathan Hillcoat, John Patrick Shanley, Joe Wright, and Ed Zwick





Best Actor: Frank Langella, Sean Penn, Leonardo DeCaprio, Brad Pitt, Mickey Rourke.


Others: Viggo Mortenson, Richard Jenkins, Benicio Del Toro, Robert Downey, Jr., and Hugh Jackman





Best Actress: Kate Winslet, Angelina Jolie, Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and Sally Hawkins.


Others: Nicole Kidman, Melissa Leo, Kristin Scott Thomas, and Drew Barrymore.





Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Josh Brolin, Michael Shannon, Russell Crowe.


Others: James Franco, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, John Malkovich, Jamie Foxx, Michael Sheen, and Robert Downey, Jr. (for the same roll in "The Soloist"...apparently the guessperts don't really know which category he should be in)





Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Tajari Henson, Viola Davis, Kathy Bates, and Vera Farmiga.


Others: Marisa Tomei, Amy Adams, Kim Basinger, Debra Winger, Rosemaire DeWitt, and Charlize Theron.





Adapted Screenplay: Frost/Nixon, The Road, Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, and Doubt.


Others: The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, Defiance, Body of Lies, The Reader.





Original Screenplay: Milk, Australia, Vicky Christina Barcelona, The Cahngeling, Rachel Getting Married.


Others: The Visitor, Wall-E, Happy-Go-Lucky, The Soloist and Gran Torino.

Telluride Stories

Variety has posted a slew of interviews with a number of the participants from this year's festival. You can find them at this link:

http://www.variety.com/index.asp?layout=festivals&jump=video

Included are Greg Kinnear, Lauren Graham, Jeff Goldblum, Danny Boyle, Ari Folman and many others. Check it out.

And Home

We've been home for a couple of days and I am trying to catch up after the whirlwind that was Telluride this year. The last day we got in "The Good, The Bad and The Weird" a Korean homage/send-up of the Eastwood spaghetti western. Very LOUD and very entertaining.

Followed that up with what appears to be the hit of the Festival. Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire". We really enjoyed it. And the response from the rest of the Telluride attendees seems to be very good (if you read the reviews and blogging that has come out of last weekend. It was gratifying to see/hear Boyle introduce the film and thank the audiences in Telluride for giving it a boost as it heads to Toronto's festival... I suspect that part of the response is due to "Slumdog" having a brighter tone and conclusion than most everything else at the fest this year. Sometimes you just need some relief.

We concluded the fest with "American Violet" a true story of racially biased mass arrest in Texas...a lot like the Tulia, Texas case of a few years ago that those of us in the Amarillo media market are familiar with. A good performance from Nicole Behaire (Kris talked to her briefly on Sunday) is the highlight of this film...which you want to like, but dramatically falls short.

All in all, this year's fest didn't reach the heights of last year's in terms of film quality nor in our chance encounters and interaction with the famous and near famous. That being said, the opportunity to meet and talk with Salman Rushdie pretty much made the weekend. I mean, how often does something like that happen?

Movie round up (what I/we saw)

Asphalt Tango (Romanian and one of the 3 best things I saw)... 3 stars

Tribute to David Fincher (20 min. of "Button"...looks great also derivative)

Hunger (Bobby Sands hunger strike/brutal)...2 and 1/2 stars

Happy-Go-Lucky ( Sally Hawkins is good in a fair movie) 2 and 1/2 stars

Waltz with Bashir (animated and a likely Oscar nominee) 3 stars

Flash of Genius ( not so much, Greg Kinnear) 2 stars

Firaaq (Rushdie introduced Indian "Crash") 2 and 1/2 stars

Tribute to Jean Simmons (who didn't she work with?)

Good, Bad Weird (fun!) 3 stars

Slumdog Millionarie ( best movie of the weekend) 3 stars

American Violet (seemed to lack dramatically) 2 and 1/2 stars

Other buzz we didn't get to see:

I've Loved You So Long

Flame and Citron

Gomaorrah

Will probably morph this blog into an Oscar watch/clearinghouse with emphasis on what was at Telluride and the chances those films have for winning Oscar glory in February...

A Gondola Ride with Salman

Few films today...it's our personal day. We'll spend some time with our hosts this afternoon and this evening. Caught "Firaaq" and the Jean Simmons tribute this morning into this afternoon. We'll do a bunch of films tomorrow and....

Rode the gondola down from the Mountain Village with Salman Rushdie...the Salman Rushdie....talked with him about the film he introduced here this morning (the aforementioned Firaaq)...made my head spin...we were returning from the Jean Simmons tribute...which ended with Leonard Maltin talking to her about her career and movies including stories about Laurence Olivier, Marlon Brando (another person that I somehow met years ago), Spencer Tracy, and Cary Grant among others...Kris talked to Maltin just before she went into the theater...CRAZY!

Day Two

Short tonight...will do a real entry later. Still waiting for a great movie. Saw "Hunger", "Happy-Go-Lucky", "Waltz with Bashir" and "Flash of Genius" today. Bashir is closest to being a really great movie...but it still falls short.

Celebs today...Ken Burns (who I keep running into), Laura Linney, Greg Kinnear, Lauren Graham, and the directors for all 4 films I saw today: Steve McQueen, Mike Leigh, Ari Folman, and Mark Abraham.

Hoping to get to see "American Violet" before the fest is over and talk to Oklahoman Tim Blake Nelson who is here and in that cast. Tomorrow will include "Firaaq" introduced by Salman Rushdie (which blows my mind) and the Jean Simmons tribute (she worked with Olivier and Brando!)...after that, who knows???

And Day One Is Done

Just finished the David Fincher tribute...

Impressions...Fincher is a dynamic director...the tribute included a 40 minute reel of his work...still impressive. Se7en, The Game and Fight Club are all very good. Zodiac was good...It will be interesting to see how Fincher continues in his career.

We were also treated to about 20 minutes of "Benjamin Button" which looks and sounds very Forrest Gumpy...I mean really Forrest Gumpy....which may be OK...maybe

It's a period piece, it's southern, it attempts the same kind of acceptance of a kind of magical realism that Gump asked you to buy into. And it's effects intensive too...just like Gump...

I think it's a very tricky tight rope that Button is going to try to walk...but I'm afraid that most people are going to feel that the steps were blazed by Gump and that Button is mostly a re-run.

Was going to attend "I've Loved You So Long" but am out of gas. Will start tomorrow morning with the Cannes entry, Steve McQueen's "Hunger". Then go from there. Waiting to see what the Fest organizers add as TBA's for tomorrow before planning the whole day. Looking forward to "Flash of Genius" which is NOT on the bill of fare...but the presence of Greg Kinnear means it will be sneaked at some point this weekend.

Celeb sightings tonight included Jeff Goldblum who is here with "Adam Resurrected" and singer-songwriter Tracy Chapman

Catching My Breath

We're in the lull between the Patron Brunch and the Patron Preview. The Brunch was marvelous...highlight...corn pancakes with chipoltle butter and shrimp salsa...tasty!

Star gazing at the Brunch (IE who I saw there)...Laura Linney, Salman Rushdie, Greg Kinnear, film critics Leonard Maltin and Richard Schickel (another tributee here this year), Lauren Graham (of Gilmore Girls fame) and documentarian Ken Burns.

Going to see "Asphalt Tango" at 2:30..our other choice was Mike Leigh's "Happy-Go-Lucky" but we're going to go see that tomorrow afternoon with our kids and see Mike Leigh (the director) do the Q & A afterwards.

I haven't assaulted any stars or directors...yet...

Morning in Telluride

We're here. And getting ready to leave for the patron's picnic. When we did this last year, we had a great time and met really interesting people. So I'm looking forward to it again.

Also looking forward to the first tribute tonight for film director David Fincher. We think there's a good chance that we're going to get to see some of "Benjamin Button". I also wonder if anyone surprising will appear to make the actual presentation. Last year Paul Thomas Anderson was on hand to award Daniel Day-Lewis...so, we'll see. They're also unspooling the director's cut of "Zodiac" as part of the fest.

Later Taters...we're out the door...

And Away We Go

Good Morning! We leave for Telluride in about 3 1/2 hours. The latest news is no news. A couple of confirmations about "Happy-Go-Lucky" and "Adam Resurrected"...and this article posted by Variety last night echoing Anne Thompson's comments from a few weeks ago. The link is:

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117991241.html?categoryid=3221&cs=1&query=telluride

From the article which quotes both Tom Luddy and Gary Meyer, it sounds as if the Festival will be heavy in European Film...which makes me feel OK with most of the guess work I have done up to now. They reference "The Lives of Others", "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" and "The Counterfeiters" from recent Telluride history and if those examples are truly a reflection of what we might see this weekend, that would be just fine. "Counterfeiters" was a good film, "Lives" and "Diving Bell" were great films. So, we certainly could do worse.

Anxiously awaiting the big reveal and hoping it happens before I get on the road.

See you in Telluride! Or in the blogosphere!

Add Another Probable

Tonight's news has a definite French air.

Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere has unearthed the nugget that "I've Loved You for So Long" directed by Phillipe Claudell will be at the Festival. It stars Kristin Scott Thomas. She is perhaps best known for "The English Patient" and "The Horse Whisperer". Claudell also wrote the screenplay.

Wells also says that we can expect one of the tributes for what he calls a "major director". This is the quote from his blog, verbatim,

"I know about a special tribute presentation for a major director (which will include a short 10 or 12-minute reel from his latest film, which will open later this year), along the lines of a tribute TFF had last year for Paul Thomas Anderson that included a short There Will Be Blood reel. "

Intriguing, yes? One wonders who it might be...

Of course, I hasten to point put that the actual tribute was for Daniel Day-Lewis and that Anderson was there as a part of that presentation.

The address for the Wells speculation is:

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2008/08/sniffin_around.php

Added to the revelation about the Claudell film is another guess on my part and that is Barbet Schroeder's "Inju, la bête dans l'ombre". Schroeder has been in Telluride in the past and it wouldn't surprise me if he returns with this film.

Another film that wouldn't surprise me with an appearance is "Gomorah" a crime drama that won plaudits at Cannes.

I expect that the speculation will begin to pick up some steam now that the Festival is days away. We'll keep you posted.

A Week To Go

Multiple sources including Variety confirmed today that Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire" will be part of the Telluride film line-up for this year's festival. That tidbit was reported here on Aug. 12.

Otherwise, speculation remains very muted with one week left prior to the kick off of the fest. Other Cannes possibles (that are also aligned with Sony Classics Pictures which was a big connection to films that played the fest last year) include "Adoration"and "Lorna's Silence".

Also, a frequent contributor of films that past 2 years has been Paramount Vantage, which has 3 films positioned for fall release. "The Duchess" with Ralph Fiennes and Keira Knightley, "Defiance" with Daniel Craig and Liev Schreiber and, of course, DeCaprio and Winslet reunited in the Sam Mendes directed "Revolutionary Road".

You have to think that a couple of these also end up on the Telluride play list.

All Quiet...

It is almost eerie how little is out there in terms speculation about this year's films. We're 10 days away and the buzz is very muted. One wonders if the Festival is especially tight-lipped this year. Nevertheless, there have been hints about 1/2 dozen films...perhaps guesses, perhaps wishful thinking, perhaps well-informed.

As previously noted we think that these films are on the list: "Rachel Getting Married", "Happy-Go-Lucky", "Adam Resurrected" and "Slumdog Millionaire"...with a hint at "Milk". I still think that "The Other Man" and "Humboldt County" are good bets. Also "The Class". "Synecdoche, NY" and "Waltz with Bashir". There are probably another 4-6 possibilities from Cannes.

I'm still holding my breath about the possibility of a "Revolutionary Road", "The Road" or "Benjamin Button" appearance...and maybe Ed Harris' "Appaloosa"...any of those would be very cool. We shall see...

And Then Again...

"The Playlist" http://theplaylist.blogspot.com/ hints that "Milk" may be at Telluride after all. Spencer Martin says...

"Lastly, where's 'Milk' on the fall festival circuit? It's surely an Oscar-bait film, yes? We're hearing informed inside rumblings that say it's going to premiere in San Francisco and bypass the regular festivals purposely. Anne Thompson said 'Milk' wouldn't be ready in time for the fall season and that's why it wouldn't appear at TIFF or NYFF, but our source says it's in the final stages and basically complete (they also hinted that Telluride could be a possiblilty). "Milk" is set for a December 5, 2008 release date and also co-stars Emile Hirsch, Diego Luna, Josh Brolin, with appearances by Eric Stoltz and solid character actors Denis O'Hare and Victor Garber."

This would be a definite must-see if it turns out to be the case...We can only hope!

And a New Addition

Blogger at The Lorenzo Xperience reports tonight that Mike Leigh's "Happy-Go-Lucky" is on the bill of fare for Telluride. Actress Sally Hawkins has already started getting some buzz for possible Oscar consideration having won Best Actress at the Berlin Fest.

Just In

Patrick Goldstein in the LA Times reports tonight that Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire" is on the list for the Festival. Boyle previously directed "28 Days Later" and "Sunshine" and the minor classic "Trainspotting".

And Don't Forget the Tributes

One of the cooler things about the festival is that they honor three filmmakers each year. Past tributees have included actors: Daniel Day-Lewis (last year), Penelope Cruz, Peter O'Toole, Laura Linney, Meryl Streep, Shirley MacLaine, Harvey Keitel, Jodie Foster, Gerard Depardieu, Richard Widmark and Jack Nicholson.

Directors that have been honored include: Ang Lee, David Lynch, Mike Leigh, John Schlesinger, Ken Burns, Clint Eastwood, Pedro Almodovar, Stephen Frears, Don Siegel, Henry Hathaway, Robert Altman, Robert Wise, King Vidor, Leni Riefenstahl and Francis Ford Coppola.

It was more than a little unworldly last year to watch Daniel Day-Lewis receive his medallion from Paul Thomas Anderson, see 20 minutes of "There Will Be Blood" (it wasn't finished with post-production yet), see a compilation of Day-Lewis' career, and see/hear him talk about his life, career, films and acting for an hour. Then to see him win the Oscar 5 months later!

To see some of that evening, here's a link:

http://showroom.telluridefilmfestival.org/15

Can't wait to find out who has been chosen for the honors this year!

Maybe Some Disappointment

I ran across an Anne Thompson blog entry from Variety from about three weeks ago in which she says that "Revolutionary Road", "Milk" and "The Road" are all still too far from a completed state to expect them to be festival ready. Disappointing all the way around if it's true. There have reportedly been some screenings of "Revolutionary Road" which lead to a little ray of sunshine, but Thompson was pretty good last year at knowing what to expect in Telluride. Some guesses that I have would include "The Other Man" with Telluride citizen Laura Linney and Liam Neeson, Cannes Palm D'Or winner "The Class", and if the recent past is a guide, we'll see a lot of the Cannes list in southwest Colorado in three weeks. Might that include Clint Eastwood's "The Changeling" with Ms. Jolie? That would surprise me. Soderbergh's 4 plus hour Che Guevera epic with Benicio Del Toro...more likely. I'll have some more ideas as we get closer...

This is the poster art for this year's festival by board member Laurie Anderson...

The Countdown

Of course, the fun right now is speculating/guessing what films might be in the Festival...and who might be there with those films or as one of the tributees. The only solid guesses that I have run across are Jonathan Demme's first fictional film in some time featuring Anne Hathaway and entitled "Rachel Getting Married". And also Paul Schrader's new directorial effort featuring Jeff Goldblum and Willem Dafoe entitled "Adam Resurrected"...What I'd like to see would include "Revolutionary Road" from Sam Mendes, the new film from the Coen Brothers, Charlie Kaufman's first attempt at directing (with Phillip Seymour Hoffman) called "Synedoche,New York" and "Milk" directed by Gus Van Sant with Sean Penn and Josh Brolin.