Another Look at Early Oscar Predictions / First Look at One Battle After Another

ANOTHER LOOK AT EARLY OSCAR PREDICITONS

I decided to switch things up a bit and go back to early Oscar predictions as a way to mine for possible TFF #52 films.  I'll use that metric again on Thursday and then return to Cannes speculation next week.

Today we take a look at the 2026 Oscar predictions from Mark Johnson, The Awards Alchemist, housed at Awards Watch.  These are the films Mark has in the mix for Oscar that I feel are possible choices for Telluride:

After the Hunt/Amazon-MGM/Luca Guadagnino

Anemone/Focus/Ronan Day-Lewis

The Ballad of a Small Player/Netflix/Edward Berger

Bugonia/Focus/Yorgos Lanthimos

Deliver Me from Nowhere/Searchlight/Scott Cooper

Die My Love/No Distribution/Lynne Ramsay

Eleanor the Great/Sony Pictures Classics/Scarlett Johansson

Eternity/A24/David Freyne

Frankenstein/Netflix/Guillermo Del Toro

Hamnet/Focus/Chloe Zhao

The History of Sound/Focus/Oliver Hermanus

Is This Thing On?/Searchlight/Bradley Cooper

Jay Kelly/Netflix/Noah Baumbach

Marty Supreme/A24/Josh Safdie

Pressure/Focus/Anthony Maras

Mark's complete look at the 2026 Oscars is linked here.

FIRST LOOK AT ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

We got a brief glimpse of Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another with a teaser that dropped last Thursday.  I got interested in the new PTA film after its release date was moved to September 26th which means that it could play Telluride (or Venice or Toronto or all of them or none of them).  The teaser was released as a morsel to chew on prior to the release of what is expected to be a full trailer sometime this week.  I'll be eagerly anticipating that and hope to have it here in my next post.

Here's the teaser from YouTube:

More on Thursday...

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Another View of Cannes / A New Date Spurs Speculation

 ANOTHER VIEW OF CANNES

Here's another look at films that could play Cannes in May and then Telluride in June.  This rumination comes from Jordan Ruimy of World of Reel.  He's been steadily tracking Cannes title possibilities for months.  

Die, My Love/No Distribution/Lynne Ramsay

The Disappearance of Joseph Mengele/No Distribution/Kirill Serebrennikov

In the Hand(s) of Dante/No Distribution/Julian Schnabel

The Love That Remains/No Distribution/Hylnur Palmason

The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol/Sony Pictures Classics/Sylvain Chomet

The Mastermind/Mubi/Kelly Reichardt

Orphan/No Distribution/Laszlo Nemes 

The Way of the Wind/No Distribution/Terrence Malick

The Young Mother's Home/No Distribution/The Dardennes Brothers

Here's Ruimy's extensive list.

A NEW DATE SPURS SPECULATION

Warner Brothers dropped a stunner of a piece pf news yesterday that Paul Thomas Anderson's latest, One Battle After Another has been re-dated from August 8th to September 26th.  The announcement opened a door to speculation about the reasons for the move including the possibility of a fall film festival premiere.

Anderson attended TFF in 2007 for the tribute to Daniel Day-Lewis which included a screening of a few minutes of There Will Be Blood.  His track record with fests shows no favoritism regarding any particular fest.  Here's the track record:

Hard Eight-Sundance

Boogie Nights-Toronto

Magnolia-No fest

Punch Drunk Love-Cannes

There Will Be Blood-Telluride (sort of) then Fantastic Fest

The Master-Venice

Inherent Vice-New York Film Fest

Phantom Thread-Premiered in New York then the Palm Springs Film Fest

Licorice Pizza-Premiered in Los Angeles then the Santa Barbara International Film festival

Gold Derby name checked T-ride specifically as a possible film fest destination for the new film saying:

"It (the new date) also positions Anderson’s highly anticipated movie in the heart of awards season and opens up the possibility of a fall festival launch at either the Venice Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, or Toronto International Film Festival."

Both World of Reel and The Film Stage suggest the possibility of an appearance at a "fall film festival".

As you might expect, I'll be keeping up with developments in this matter.  Frankly, I think it's a long shot at best, but...

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Looking to Cannes Possibilities

LOOKING TO CANNES POSSIBILITIES

One of the more common connections that can inform us about potential TFF films is the pipeline between The SHOW and the Cannes Film Festival.  It is long and productive relationship.  In most years recently Cannes and Telluride have averaged sharing around 8 titles per year.  Just this last year the Cannes to Telluride list included Oscar Best Picture and Palme d'Or winner winner Anora as well as other Palme competition films:

Bird

Emilia Perez

The Apprentice

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

From Un Certain Regard:

Santosh

So looking at what is likely/might be at Cannes is an excellent exercise in predicting what could be in the San Juans on Labor Day weekend.

That said, I'm peeking at The Hollywood Reporters' Cannes take from March 10th and it reveals 17 titles as possible Cannes choices that seem to me to have some chance at making the Cannes/TFF double play.

Here they are:

After the Hunt/Amazon-MGM/Luca Guadagnino

Bugonia/Focus/Yorgos Lanthimos

The Chronology of Water/No Distribution/Kristen Stewart

Die, My Love/No Distribution/Lynne Ramsay

The Disappearance of Joseph Mengele/No Distribution/Kirill Serebrennikov

Eleanor the Great/Sony Pictures Classics/Scarlett Johansson

Hamnet/Focus Features/Chloe Zhao

The History of Sound/Mubi/Oliver Hermanus

In the Hand(s) of Dante/No Distribution/Julian Schnabel

Jupiter/No Distribution/Andrey Zvyaginstev

The Mastermind/Mubi/Kelly Reichardt

Musk/HBO/Alex Gibney

Orphan/No Distribution/Laszlo Nemes

Orwell/NEON/Raoul Peck

The Wave/No Distribution/Sebastian Lelio 

The Way of the Wind/No Distribution/Terrence Malick

The Young Mother's Home/No Distribution/The Dardennes Brothers

Here's the complete list from The Hollywood Reporter.

I'll have another look at Cannes possibilities on Thursday.

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Coming Attractions: What Could Play TFF #52? / Trailer for One to One: John & Yoko / Spinal Tap???

 COMING ATTRACTIONS: WHAT COULD PLAY TFF #52?

In today's post I continue to take a look at early Oscar predictions as a way of searching for possible TFF titles for this year.  Today we're looking at Daniel Howat's take from Next Best Picture.  From the ten films NBP has as predicted as Best Picture nominees, these might be the ones with the most Telluride potential:

After the Hunt/Amazon-MGM/Luca Guadagnino

Bugonia/Focus/Yorgos Lanthimos

The Ballad of a Small Player/Edward Berger

Deliver Me from Nowhere/Scott Cooper

Die, My Love/No Distributor/Lynne Ramsay

Marty Supreme/A24/Josh Safdie

And among the other films NBP assesses for Oscar potential:

Anemone/Focus/Ronan Day-Lewis

The Bride/Warners/Maggie Gyllenhaal

Frankenstein/Netflix/Guillermo Del Toro

Hamnet/Focus/Chloe Zhao

Hedda/Amazon-MGM/Nia DiCosta

The History of Sound/Mubi/Oliver Hermanus

Jay Kelly/Netflix/Noah Baumbach

The complete list from Next Best Picture is linked here.

TRAILER FOR ONE TO ONE: JOHN & YOKO

From directors Kevin Macdonald and Sam Rice-Edwards here is the recently released trailer for TFF #51 documentary One to One: John & Yoko.

The IMBd description:

Set in 1972 New York, this documentary explores John and Yoko's world amid a turbulent era. Centered on the One to One charity concert for special needs children, it features unseen archives, home movies, and restored footage.

The film is set to open in the U.S. on April 18th.

SPINAL TAP???

Many readers know, I'm sure, that a sequel to the classic This Is Spinal Tap has been in the works for some time.  Now word comes that the film has been picked by Bleecker Street for distribution and a release date has been set.  Look for the film in theaters on Sept. 12th.

The combination of the distributor, which has had its share of films play over the years at T-ride, and the weekend date immediately following the close of TFF #52 allows for a possible TFF screening.

Do I have a lot of confidence in this possibility?   Right now...No.  But it's logistically possible and really an intriguing thought.

Here's the story from Indiewire.

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MTFB Looks at "Too Early" Oscar Predictions

MTFB LOOKS AT "TOO EARLY" OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Sorry I'm running late today.  Been on the road this morning...

Today we begin to take a look at some of the Oscar Predictions for 2025-26 as a way of trying to sniff out some of the films that could possibly play at TFF #52.  we're beginning with the early view from Variety's Senior Awards Editor Clayton Davis.

Davis has predicted 10 films as nominees for Best Picture and has also included a list of alternates.  From his list of 10, here are films that feel like they might be possible players to be screened at Telluride:

The Ballad of  a Small Player/Netflix/Edward Berger

Bugonia/Focus/Yorgos Lanthimos

Deliver Me from Nowhere/20th Century/Scott Cooper

Hamnet/Focus/Chloe Zhao

And from the list of "Alternates":

After the Hunt/Amazon-MGM/Luca Guadagnino

Anemone/Focus/Ronan Day-Lewis

The Bride/Warners/Maggie Gyllenhaal

Eleanor the Great/Sony Pictures Classics/Scarlett Johansson

Eternity/A24/David Freyne

Frankenstein/Netflix/Guillermo Del Toro

Jay Kelly/Netflix/Noah Baumbach

Marty Supreme/A24/Josh Safdie

Family Rental/Searchlight/Hikari

Clayton's full set of predictions can be accessed here.

More on Thursday...

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Oscar #97 in the Rear View / Forging Ahead

OSCAR #97 IN THE REAR VIEW

Sunday night's Oscar ceremony brought few, if any, real upsets.  I personally was 16 of 23 for a 69.6% success rate which is among the lowest rates of success since I started posting Oscar predictions on this site. 

Still, in the case of the seven misses, my "Possible Upset" picked up the statuette in five of the seven categories: Actress, Documentary, Animated Feature, Editing and Documentary Short.  Leaving out the Shorts categories, I was a much more respectable 16 of 20 for 80% among the Feature categories.

I felt some better the next morning when Gold Derby posted the records of their experts..  Had I been among them (there are 38 of them) I would have tied for eighth overall.  Among those with which I tied were Indiewire's Anne Thompson and The Contending's Mark Johnson.  Some experts over which I had a better score were: The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg (65.2%), Deadline's Pete Hammond (65.2%), ABC's Peter Travers (56.5%)  and Variety's Clayton Davis (56.5%).

So, as I said after the nominations dropped in January...where do I apply to be a Gold Derby expert?

Again. TFF films nabbed 10 Oscars.  That's the best since the 2016 edition of TFF when fest films earned 12 Oscars (the year of Moonlight and La La Land).  This year's collection is either tied for second or third most depending if you count the 2008 year wherein Slumdog Millionaire won eight and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button which won three.  Button only screened a few minutes as a part of the tribute to David Fincher.  So 2008 might be eight or eleven if you count Button.

TFF's 2013 edition had 10 Oscars.  That was the 12 Years a Slave (3) and Gravity (7) year.

Here's another thing that I found revealing.  Since I started the polling of Telluride attendees both with the People and the Professionals TFF has had nine films win Best Picture:

Argo

12 Years a Slave

Birdman

Spotlight

Moonlight

The Shape of Water

Parasite

Nomadland***

Anora

Eight of the nine finished at #1 on the Composite Telluride ratings where I add the ratings from the People and the Professionals together.  The only exception was Nomadland which, of course, couldn't be polled as the fest didn't happen due to Covid.  I still count it as TFF film Best Picture Oscar winner as the fest went out of its way  to premiere the film in Los Angeles as a Drive-In experience.

Seems to me that hitting that #1 Composite spot is kind of telling.  

Other films since I started polling that had the #1 Composite rating but did not win Best Picture:

2018- Roma

2021-The Power of the Dog

2022-TAR

2023-Poor Things

Anora became the 12th TFF film to win Best Picture.

Of the 12, six World Premiered at Telluride: 

Slumdog Millionaire

The King's Speech

Argo

12 Years a Slave

Moonlight

Nomadland (see above)

Three screened at Venice before Telluride:

Birdman

Spotlight

The Shape of Water

Three screened at Cannes before telluride:

The Artist

Parasite

Anora

Of the five other films that have won Best Picture since Slumdog in 2008, no other festival World Premiered the subsequent Best Picture more than once:

2009: The Hurt Locker (Venice, so it totals five)

2018: Green Book (Toronto)

2021: CODA (Sundance)

2022: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once (South by Southwest)

2023: Oppenheimer (No Festival appearance)

FORGING AHEAD

So Oscar is done for another season and MTFB turns to the sleuthing of films for the TFF #52 lineup.  Regular readers have already seen some analysis here based on "Most Anticipated" lists from a couple of outlets since the turn of the year.

Now our attention will turn to two primary areas that can give clues...early Oscar predictions and Cannes speculation.  I'll start parsing that with Monday's post.

For those who might remember last year's debacle concerning purchasing tickets...no problem this year.  We've got them and lodging locked down.  Bring on TFF #52!

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Oscar Night and TFF #51

OSCAR NIGHT AND TFF #51

Here are your results from Oscar #97.  TFF #51 films are in Bold.

Best Picture: Anora. 

Best Direction: Sean Baker/Anora. 

Best Actress: Mikey Madison/Anora

Best Actor:  Winner: Adrien Brody/The Brutalist.  

Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez. 

Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain. 

Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave. 

Best Original Screenplay: Anora.  

Best International Feature: Winner: I'm Still Here.

Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land.

Best Animated Feature: Flow.

Best Cinematography: The Brutalist.

Best Editing: Anora.

Best Original Score: The Brutalist. 

Best Original Song: El Mal/Emilia Perez. 

Best Production Design: Wicked.

Best Costume Design: Wicked. 

Best Makeup/Hair: The Substance.

Best Sound Design: Dune Part Two. 

Best Visual Effects: Dune Part Two.

Best Live Action Short: I Am Not a Robot.

Best Animated Short: In the Shadow of the Cypress.

Best Documentary Short: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.

TYFF #51 films win 10 Oscars.

Anora (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay and Editing.

Emilia Perez (2): Supporting Actress, Song.

Conclave (1): Adapted Screenplay.

A Real Pain (1): Supporting Actor.

No Other Land: Documentary.

The Best Picture Oscar returns to Telluride with Anora.  It's the first TFF film to win Best Picture since 2021 and Nomadland. 

Anora was #3 on the People's Telluride poll with a 4.44 rating.  It was #1 among the Pros at 4.53.  Consequently it topped the TFF Composite poll with an 8.97 rating. That was good enough to put Anora in the All-Time Top Ten of the TFF Composite as well the All-time Top Ten of the Professionals.

MTFB goes 16 of 23 for a 69.6% success rate.  Missed all three shorts categories but was 80% on feature categories.  Among the categories I missed I had five of those seven listed as the possible "upsets".

More on Thursday.

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MTFB Special: Final Final Oscar Predictions

 MTFB SPECIAL: FINAL FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS

Here's what I'm saying will happen tonight in all 23 Academy Awards categories (TTF #51 films in Bold):

Best Picture: Winner: Anora.  Possible Upset: Conclave.

Best Direction: Winner: Sean Baker/Anora.  Possible Upset: Brady Corbet/The Brutalist

Best Actress: Winner: Demi Moore/The Substance.  Possible "Upset": Mikey Madison/Anora

Best Actor:  Winner: Adrien Brody/The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown.

Best Supporting Actress: Winner: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez.  Possible Upset: Ariana Grande/Wicked or Isabella Rossellini/Conclave.

Best Supporting Actor: Winner: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain.  Possible Upset: Edward Norton/ A Complete Unknown.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Winner: Conclave.  Possible Upset: Nickel Boys.

Best Original Screenplay: Winner: Anora.  Possible Upset: A Real Pain.

Best International Feature: Winner: I'm Still Here.  Possible Upset: Emilia Perez.

Best Documentary Feature: Winner: Porcelain War.  Possible Upset: No Other Land.

Best Animated Feature: winner: The Wild Robot.  Possible Upset: Flow.

Best Cinematography: Winner: The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Nosferatu.

Best Editing: Conclave.  Possible Upset: Anora.

Best Original Score: Winner: The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Conclave.

Best Original Song: Winner: El Mal/Emilia Perez.  Possible Upset: The Journey/The Six Triple Eight.

Best Production Design: Winner: Wicked.  Possible Upset: The Brutalist.

Best Costume Design: Winner: Wicked.  Possible Upset: Nosferatu or A Complete Unknown.

Best Makeup/Hair: Winner: The Substance.  Possible Upset: Wicked.

Best Sound Design: Winner: Dune Part Two.  Possible Upset: Wicked or A Complete Unknown.

Best Visual Effects: Winner Dune Part Two.  Possible Upset: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.

Best Live Action Short: Winner: A Lien.  Possible Upset: Anuja. (But who knows?)

Best Animated Short: Winner: Yuck!.  Possible Upset: Wander to Wonder. (But who knows?)

Best Documentary Short: Winner: I Am Ready Warden.  Possible Upset: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.

 

If I'm 100% accurate:

TFF films win eight Oscars:

Anora (3): Best Picture, Direction and Original Screnplay.

Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

Emilia Perez (2): Best Supporting Actress and Song.

A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.

Other non-TFF films with multiple wins:

The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Cinematography and Score.

The Substance (2): Best Actress and Makeup/Hair.

Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Costume Design.

Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Visual Effects.

My prediction success rate over the past several years:

2024: 19/23 82.6%

2023: 18/23 78.3% 

2022: 21/23 91.3% 

2021: 16/23 69.6% 

2020: 19/24 79.2% 

2019: 19/24 79.2% 

2018: 21/24 87.5% 

2017: 15/24 62.5% 

2016: 15/24 62.5% 

2015: 20/24 83.3% 

2014: 22/24 91.7% 

My lifetime batting average: 205/260.  Success rate: 78.9%.  Let's see what happens tonight!!!!!

 

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MTFB's Almost Final Oscar Winner Predictions / RIP Gene Hackman

MTFB'S ALMOST FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS

That's right.  "Almost Final".  I finally decided that I'll put up a "Final Final" on Sunday morning so as to have the freshest data for the nine or so categories that are tight.  More on them below.  That said, here are your latest MTFB predictions about who/what wins an Oscar on Sunday night in all 23 categories.  As always, TFF #51 films are in Bold.  A film's previous position is in parentheses to the right of each title.

BEST PICTURE

1) Anora (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Brutalist (3)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Wicked (5)

6) Emilia Perez (6)

7) I'm Still Here (8)

8) The Substance (7)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Sean Baker/Anora (1)

2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (2)

3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (3)

4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (4)

5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)

2) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)

3) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (2)

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (4)

5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (1)

2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (3)

4) Domingo Colman/Sing Sing (4)

5) Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)

2) Arian Grande/Wicked (2)

3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (4)

4) Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown (3)

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain (1)

2) Yura Borisov/Anora (3)

3) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown (2)

4) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist (4)

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) Nickel Boys (3)

3) A Complete Unknown (2)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Sing Sing (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) A Real Pain (3)

3) The Substance (2)

4) The Brutalist (4)

5) September 5 (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

1) Emilia Perez (2)

2) I'm Still Here (1)

3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig (3)

4) Flow (4)

5) The Girl with the Needle (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Porcelain War (2)

2) No Other Land (1)

3) Black Box Diaries (3)

4) Sugarcane (4)

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot (1)

2) Flow (2)

3) Inside Out 2 (3)

4) Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (5)

5) Memoir of a Snail (4)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Nosferatu (2)

3) Dune Part Two (3)

4) Maria (5)

5) Emilia Perez (4)

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave (1)

2) Anora (2)

3) Wicked (4)

4) Emilia Perez (5)

5) The Brutalist (3)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) The Brutalist (2)

3) Nosferatu (3)

4) Conclave (5)

5) Dune Part Two (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Wild Robot (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Wicked (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez (1)

2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight (2)

3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez (3)

4) Never Too Late/Never Too Late (4)

5) Like a Bird/Sing Sing (5)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) Nosferatu (2)

3) Conclave (3)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Gladiator II (5)

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) Emilia Perez (3)

4) Nosferatu (4)

5) A Different Man (5)

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) A Complete Unknown (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) The Wild Robot (5)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2)

3) Wicked (3)

4) Better Man (4)

5) Alien: Romulus (5)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Anuja

2) I Am Not a Robot

3) A Lien

4) The Man Who Would Not Remain Silent

5) The Last Ranger

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) Wander to Wonder

2) Beautiful Men

3) The Shadow of the Cypress Tree

4) Yuck!

5) Magic Candles

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) I Am Ready Warden

2) The Only Girl in the Orchestra

3) Instruments of a Beating Heart

4) Incident

5) Death by Numbers

Comments:  Your Oscar pool likely depends on 10 categories.  As always all three Shorts categories are up in the air. The Feature categories with some wiggle room:

Best Actress: Madison and Moore.

Best Actor: Brody and Chalamet.

Best Original Screenplay: Anora, A Real Pain and The Substance.

Best International Feature: Emilia Perez and I'm Still Here.

Best Documentary Feature: Porcelain War and No Other Land.

Best Editing: Conclave and Anora.

Best Sound Design: Dune Part Two, Wicked and A Complete Unknown

As of this morning here's how I am predicting Oscars for TFF #51 films:

Anora (4): Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay.

Emilia Perez (3): Best International Film, Best Supporting Actress and Best Song.

Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing.

A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.

For a total of 10 Oscars. for TFF #51 films.

Best chances to pickup a "Surprise" win for TFF #51 films:

Conclave: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress and Best Original Score.

No Other Land: Best Documentary.

Anora: Best Supporting Actor and Best Editing.

Nickel Boys: Best Adapted Screenplay

A Real Pain: Best Original Screenplay.

Other non-TFF #51 feature winners that I'm predicting:

The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Best Original Score and Best Cinematography.

Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Best Costume Design.

Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Best Visual Effects.

Porcelain War (1): Best Documentary.

The Substance (1): Best Makeup/Hair.

The Wild Robot (1): Best Animated Feature.

I'll have a "Final Final" posted sometime Sunday morning.

RIP GENE HACKMAN

One of the greats has left us.  Authorities in Santa Fe, NM reported overnight that Hackman was found dead in his home along with his wife and dog.  Santa Fe law enforcement say there was no sign of foul play.

In 1974, at the very first Telluride Film Festival, audiences got to see Francis Ford Coppola's The Conversation which features one of Hackman's best performances.

Hackman won two Oscars in his career.  One in 1972 for Best Actor in The French Connection and a second in 1993 for Best Supporting Actor in Unforgiven.

Hackman was 95.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Makeup-Hair, Costumes and More / SAG Awards and TFF #51 / Film Independent Spirit Awards and TFF #51 / Misericordia Trailer

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: MAKEUP/HAIR, COSTUMES AND MORE

We're in the stretch run now.  Oscar Night is down to less than week from today.  In today's post I update these categories: Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Sound and Visual Effects.  I last posted predictions for these categories on Feb. 10th.  TFF #51 films are in Bold.  Their previous predicted position is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) Emilia Perez (3)

4) Nosferatu (5)

5) A Different Man (4)

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) Dune Part Two (3)

2) Wicked (2)

3) A Complete Unknown (1)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) The Wild Robot (5)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) Nosferatu (3)

3) Conclave (2)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Gladiator II (5)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2)

3) Wicked (3)

4) Better Man (4)

5) Alien: Romulus (5)

Comment: I have no TFF #51 films to win in any of these four categories.  The real battle among these four is Sound Design which appears to be a down to the wire race between Dune 2 and Wicked.  I also wouldn't be shocked if A Complete unknown sneaks on Oscar night.

Based on my latest predictions in the feature categories, here's what MTFB predicts will happen on Sunday night:

Five TFF #51 win nine Oscars

Anora: Best Picture, Direction and Original Screenplay.

Conclave: Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

Emilia Perez: Supporting Actress and Song.

A Real Pain: Supporting Actor.

No Other Land: Documentary.

The rest:

The Brutalist: Actor, Cinematography and Score.

The Substance: Actress, Makeup/Hair.

Wicked: Production Design and Costumes.

Dune Part Two: Sound and Visual Effects.

I'm Still Here: International Feature.

Animated: The Wild Robot.

MTFB is saying it'll be a "spread the wealth" night with no film winning more than three Oscars.  BUT...FINAL MTFB predictions are coming on Thursday.

SAG AWARDS AND TFF #51

It was a good night at the SAG Awards for TFF #51 films.  Telluride films won three of the six film categories.  Zoe Saldana won Supporting Actress for Emilia Perez while Kieran Culkin won Supporting Actor for A Real Pain and Conclave win the big prize being named Best Cast.

Other awards were won by Demi Moore (Best Actress/The Substance ) and Timothee Chalamet (Best Actor/A Complete Unknown).  The Fall Guy won  for Best Stunt Cast.

Moore and Chalamet's wins could portend Oscar wins next week and the Conclave win suggests that Anora's anointing is not a foregone conclusion.  The SAG Best Cast award has about a 50% record of going on to win the Oscar for Best Picture.

FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS AND TFF #51

The Spirit Awards were announced on Saturday and five TFF films were winners of seven of the categories with Anora having a big night winning three awards.  Here are the TFF #51 results:

Anora: Best Feature, Direction and Lead Performance (Madison).

A Real Pain: Best Supporting Performance (Culkin) and Screenplay.

Nickel Boys: Best Cinematography.

No Other Land: Best Documentary.

The complete list of winners is linked here from Film Independent.

MISERICORDIA TRAILER

From YouTube:

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MTFB Oscar Update: Winners Predictions-Cinematography and More / Bonus Update: Best Picture / SAG on Sunday / Trailer and Release for Thank You Very Much / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: CINEMATOGRAPHY AND MORE

Oscar voting is CLOSED!  The ballot deadline was Tuesday evening.  Now we wait...  

I'm updating five categories today that were last posted on Feb. 6th.  As always TFF #51 films are Bold and their previous position on the chart is to the right in parentheses.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Nosferatu (3)

3) Dune Part Two (2)

4) Emilia Perez (5)

5) Maria (4)

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave (1)

2) Anora (2)

3) The Brutalist (3)

4) Wicked (5)

5) Emilia Perez (4)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) The Brutalist (2)

3) Nosferatu (5)

4) Dune Part Two (3)

5) Conclave (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Wild Robot (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Wicked (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez (1)

2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight (2)

3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez (3)

4) Never Too Late/Never Too Late (5)

5) Like a Bird/Sing Sing (4)

 Comment:  Currently I have TFF #51 films winning two of these five Oscars with Conclave taking Editing (though if Anora wins here that'll keep Editing in the TFF #51 family) and Emilia Perez taking Original Song.  The other "Best Chance" of a pickup is Conclave in Original Score.  At the moment I have Conclave winning Adapted Screenplay and Editing.  If it does upset The Brutalist for Score then maybe an upset is brewing in favor of Conclave over Anora for Best Picture.  

BONUS UPDATE: BEST PICTURE

I'm not actually due for an update of the Best Picture race until the 27th but thought I'd give it a quick looksee.

1) Anora (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Brutalist (4)

4) A Complete Unknown (3)

5) Wicked (5)

6) Emilia Perez (6)

7) The Substance (7)

8) I'm Still Here (8)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (10)

Comment: The movement of note is bit of a boost for The Brutalist and a bit of a lag for A Complete Unknown.  Conclave seems best poised to upset Anora's strong hold on the top prize.  Did it's four BAFTA wins indicate something?  

SAG ON SUNDAY

The Screen Actors Guild (SAG-Aftra) happen Sunday night at 8:00pm Eastern/5:00pm Pacific.  They're on Netflix.  There are six categories for film.  Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Cast and Stunt Cast.  All but Stunt Cast, perhaps, shine light on The Oscars.

Best Actress:  If Mikey Madison wins...that's another indicator that Anora has the BP Oscar sewn up.  If Demi Moore, once regarded as the frontrunner, grabs this trophy then Best Actress could be a nail-biter on Oscar night.

Best Actor:  Adrien Brody is looking strong and he needs a win to boost The Brutalist's chance at Best Picture.  Timothee Chalamet could win and that's essential for A Complete Unknown to have any shot at Best Picture.  A Ralph Fiennes win, while unlikely but not outside the realm of possibility, would be huge indicator that Conclave is upsetting Anora.

Best Supporting Actress: Despite all the controversy surrounding Emilia Perez, Zoe Saldana still looks strong for SAG and Oscar.  A Monica Barbaro upset combined with a Chalamet win for Actor might mean A Complete Unknown has slipped into the Best Picture top spot. 

Best Supporting Actor: At this point I think everyone has determined that Kieran Culkin (like Saldana) has this in the bag.  As with Chalamet and Barbaro, an Edward Norton win aids A Complete Unknown.

Best Cast: If any film other than Anora wins this there are real chances that the Oscar is going somewhere else.  It wouldn't doom Anora which has had such incredible precursor success that it remains the big favorite for Oscar night.  Wins for either Conclave or A Complete Unknown would make Oscar night very intriguing.

SAG Guesses: Madison, Brody, Saldana, Culkin, Anora.  Four of the five categories go to TFF #51 films.  Tune into Netflix on Sunday to find out.

The full list of SAG nominees is linked here.

TRAILER AND RELEASE FOR THANK YOU VERY MUCH

A number of outlets reported this week that Alex Braverman's Andy Kaufman documentary that screened as a part of TFF #50 has a release date of Marc. 28th.  Drafthouse also released a trailer for the doc.  Here that is via YouTube:

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Director Adam Eliot for Memoir of a Snail from The Film Stage.

Composer Volker Bertelmann for Conclave from The Contending.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Oscar Winners Predictions: Screenplays and More / BAFTA and TFF #51 / Writers' Guild and TFF #51

 MTFB OSCAR WINNERS PREDICTIONS: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

We're under two weeks to Oscar night.  Today I am updating predictions for both screenplay categories as well as International , Animated and Documentary features.  These categories were first predicted two weeks back on Feb. 3rd.  As always, TFF films are Bold.  A film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Nickel Boys (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Sing Sing (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) The Substance (3)

3) A Real Pain (4)

4) The Brutalist (2)

5) September 5 (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) I'm Still Here (1)

2) Emilia Perez (3)

3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig (2)

4) Flow  (4)

5) The Girl with the Needle (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot (1)

2) Flow (2)

3) Inside Out 2 (3)

4) Memoir of a Snail (5)

5) Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (4)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) No Other Land (1)

2) Porcelain War (4)

3) Black Box Diaries (3)

4) Sugarcane (2)

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (5)

Comments:  Despite the backlash, Emilia Perez still looks like it has a real shot at the International Feature Oscar.  I still have it behind I'm Still Here but it feels close.  Additionally, Porcelain War has surged in the Documentary category.  The biggest lock from these categories seems to be Conclave in Adapted Screenplay.

Should these predictions prove out, TFF #51 films would win three of the five categories.

BAFTA AND TFF #51

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their winners on Sunday.  each with Conclave leading the way with four wins including Best Film. Four TFF #51 films landed a least two BAFTAs including Conclave with four wins including Best Film.

Here's the rundown of  TFF #51 films' BAFTA wins:

Conclave: Best Film, Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay and Editing.  

Anora: Best Actress (Madison) and Casting.

Emilia Perez: Best Film Not in the English Language and Best Supporting Actress (Saldana).

A Real Pain: Best Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.

Among non-TFF films The Brutalist had four wins as well for Best Direction, Actor (Brody), Cinematography and Score.

The Conclave win for Best Film gives it a little life for Oscar night.  Wins for Saldana and Culkin cement their status for Supporting Oscars and all of the hubbub regarding Emilia Perez didn't seem to slow it down in London.

TFF #51 films were nominated for a total of  45 awards.

WRITERS' GUILD AND TFF #51

Two TFF #51 films picked up Writers' Guild of America awards on Saturday night.  Sean Baker won for Anora as Best Original Screenplay while RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes shared the trophy for Nickel Boys as Best Adapted Screenplay.

These results are likely indicative of an Anora Oscar win in two weeks.  The Nickel Boys win is likely less predictive as Conclave was ineligible under WGA rules.  Most of the Oscar prediction community thinks Conclave is the favorite.  Currently 29 out of the 34 Gold Derby experts are predicting Conclave to pick up the Oscar win.

Here is the complete list of winners from the WGA.

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