Ten Bets #4 for TFF #52 / Rental Family...Telluride Bound? / Next Best Picture Predicts T-Ride / Knives and Definitions

 TEN BETS #4 FOR TFF #52

With every week we get a little bit more backdoor info pointing to certain titles for TFF #52.  You'll see a little bit of that for this week in the stories posted below.  But let's lead off today's re-shuffle of the top ten bets on films for TFF.  Here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Sentimental Value/Trier

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) Hamnet/Zhao

5) Blue Moon/Linklater

6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe

7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers

9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino

Other possibilities: The Love That Remains/Palmason, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, The History of Sound, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.

And this is where I think we are this week:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Sentimental Value/Trier

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) Hamnet/Zhao

5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe

7) Blue Moon/Linklater

8) After the Hunt/Guadagnino

9) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes Brothers

10) Rental Family/Hikari

Other possibilities: The History of Sound, The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains/Palmason, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.

RENTAL FAMILY...TELLURIDE BOUND?

Oscar winner Brendan Fraser who leads Hikari's Rental Family

Earlier this week I wrote that Hikari's Rental Family had about a 40% shot at playing at telluride  as a part of my assessment of what Searchlight films might be TFF possible.  That, I suggested. made it the most likely Searchlight property to play TFF #52.

Tuesday World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy reported that the film may be TFF bound.  In a story covering the test screenings of the film.  The thrust of the story is that it has been screening to very positive reactions.  As Ruimy is winding up the article he writes:

"What we might have here is the kind of low-key, but emotionally resonant indie that, if positioned well, could ride a wave of goodwill through the fall circuit and into awards season. 

Of course, it it’s too early to tell, but all signs point to a real crowd-pleaser, and there are already murmurs that it’s already clinched a spot at the Telluride Film Festival, which is known to be a major Oscar launchpad."

We can't know how certain Ruimy is, but it seems he has some serious insight.  Consequently Rental Family makes its way onto this week's Ten Bets list.  And for fun, I'll tease that there is at least one other "Bet" among the 10 that I am 90% sure of and another among the week's "possibilities" that I'm also at 90% on.  I really thought about moving the "possibility" into the Ten Bets for the week but had to make late breaking room for Rental Family.

Any guesses?

NEXT BEST PICTURE PREDICTS T-RIDE

Matt Neglia at Next Best Picture posted yesterday a substantial piece predicting where films would land this fall film fest season including TFF #52.  I have included Matt's Telluride predictions and indicated where he and I overlap as follows:

* On the the latest Ten Bets

**Included as a "Possibility"

***Might have been mentioned by MTFB

Here's Matt's list:

Blue Moon – dir. Richard Linklater*

Bugonia-dir. Yorgos Lanthimos*

Chocobar-dir. Lucretia Martel

The Chronology Of Water – dir. Kristen Stewart***

Hamnet (World Premiere) – dir. Chloe Zhao*

The History Of Sound – dir. Oliver Hermanus**

A House Of Dynamite (World Premiere) – dir. Kathryn Bigelow***

It Was Just An Accident – dir. Jafar Panahi*

Jay Kelly-dir. Noah Baumbach**

Left-Handed Girl – dir. Shih-Ching Tsou***

The Love That Remains – dir. Hlynur Pálmason**

A Magnificent Life – dir. Sylvain Chomet***

Mother Mary (World Premiere) – director. David Lowery

The Perfect Neighbor – dir. Geeta Gandbhir

The President’s Cake – dir. Hasan Hadi***

Rental Family (World Premiere) – dir. Hikari*

The Secret Agent – dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho**

Seeds – dir. Brittany Shyne

Sentimental Value – dir. Joachim Trier*

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (World Premiere) – dir. Scott Cooper*

Train Dreams – dir. Clint Bentley***

Urchin – dir. Harris Dickinson***

The Young Mothers’ Home – dir. Luc Dardenne & Jean-Pierre Dardenne*

Films that Matt predicts for Venice or Toronto that I want to be at Telluride:

Anemone

The Ballad of a Small Player

Eleanor the Great

Frankenstein

Is This Thing On?

One Battle After Another

Nuremburg

Orwell: 2+2=5

Pressure

You can find Matt's predictions for all four major fall fests here.

KNIVES AND DEFINITIONS

Word from Netflix yesterday that Rian Johnson's Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery will open the BFI/London Film Festival on October 8th.  The interesting thing is that multiple sources reported that as being its International Premiere.  That means it will have World Premiered somewhere else before Oct. 8th.  

Some have speculated that means a Toronto World Premiere.  But hold up.  The traditional definition of "International Premiere" is that it is a first screening outside the film's nation of origin.  Okay.  It's just that Canada is not the "nation of origin" for Wake Up Dead Man.  According to IMDb Pro the nation of origin is the U.S.A.

So, what gives?  That set of circumstances seem to suggest that WUDM World Premieres at Telluride or Fantastic Fest.  The original Knives Out did world premiere at Toronto and followed that with a screening as a part of Fantastic Fest.  Glass Onion also World Premiered at Toronto and then followed that up with a number of high profile regional fests like Mill Valley, Middleburg and Hamptons.

So, again, what gives?  I think there are three possibilities:

1) Wake Up Dead Man plays Telluride.

2) Wake Up Dead Man plays Fantastic Fest and skips Toronto.

3) Wake Up Dead Man World Premieres at Toronto.

The third option is maybe the most likely because the "International Premiere" designation has been inconsistently applied for some time.

I'll keep an eye on this to see how it finally checks out.

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Distributor Monday #5 Searchlight / Venice Announces Opening Film...Does It Play Telluride?

 DISTRIBUTOR MONDAY #5: SEARCHLIGHT

Today's look at film distributors that have a fairly impressive track record at screening things at Telluride continues with Searchlight Films (formerly Fox Searchlight).  Over the nine years I looked back (and leaving out the Covid year of 2020) Searchlight has landed at least one at Telluride every year except 2016.

Over the years Searchlight has had a good deal of success when playing films at Telluride.  Since 2008 five (Fox) Searchlight films have played TFF and subsequently won the Academy Award for Best Picture:

2009: Slumdog Millionaire

2014: 12 Years a Slave

2015: Birdman

2018: The Shape of Water

2021: Nomadland (would have played TFF had the fest happened.  TFF did sponsor a screening or two)

Searchlight has also had a number of other films that were Best Picture nominated.  Some of those were TFF films, some not.  Since 2015:

2016: Brooklyn

2018: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2019: The Favourite

2020: Jojo Rabbit

2022: Nightmare Alley

2023: The Banshees of Inisherin

2024: Poor Things

2025: A Complete Unknown

Looking at the possibilities from Searchlight we discover that there aren't many.  Three to be precise.  Here's the rundown for each listed in alphabetical order.  Participants in these films that have attended TFF previously are indicated with *.

In the Blink of an Eye.  Director: Andrew Stanton. Stars: Rashida Jones, Kate McKinnon, Daveed Diggs.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

Three storylines, spanning thousands of years, intersect and reflect on hope, connection and the circle of life.

Frankly, I'd be surprised if this turns up.

Is This Thing On?  Director: Bradley Cooper.  Stars: Bradley Cooper, Laura Dern*, Will Arnett, Ciaran Hinds.  Release date: TBD.  IMDB description:

As their marriage unravels, Alex faces middle age and divorce, seeking new purpose in the New York comedy scene while wife Tess confronts the sacrifices she made for their family-forcing them to navigate co-parenting and identity.

I'm actually pretty excited about this film.  I am wary that it will be ready in time.  IMDb reports that it went into post-production in April...so...  Laura Dern's participation doesn't hurt its chances of making a TFF appearance as she has been a TFF regular for some time now.

Rental Family.  Director: Hikari.  Stars: Brendan Fraser, Takehiro Hira.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

Japanese rental company hires struggling American actor in Tokyo. He plays various roles in clients' lives, embarking on an introspective journey through these unlikely experiences.

I actually think that Rental Family might be the most likely TFF entrant of the three.

Chances:

Rental Family 40%

Is This Thing On? 20%

In the Blink of an Eye 20%

Next week a look at Amazon/MGM.

VENICE ANNOUNCES OPENING FILM...DOES IT PLAY TELLURIDE?

The 82nd Venice Film Festival will open with Paolo Sorrentino's La Grazia (Grace).  Does that make it likely to also play at TFF #52?  That answer isn't clear at all.  Although I have frequently mentioned that the positioning of a film in the Venice schedule is crucial for any film that a distributor wants in both fests.  To make this double play a film has to be scheduled in Venice first two to three days.  Fourth day tops.  So you would think that Venice's opening night film would be a solid choice to make the way.  But...hold on...no so fast.  

I went back to 2010 and checked that scenario.  Here's what has opened Venice for each year since then with films that went on to cross the Atlantic to screen at T-ride indicated with a *.

2010: Black Swan*

2011: The Ides of March

2012: The Reluctant Fundamentalist

2013: Gravity*

2014: Birdman*

2015: Everest

2016: La La Land*

2017: Downsizing*

2018: First Man*

2019: The Truth

2020: The Ties

2021: Parallel Mothers

2022: White Noise

2023: Comandante

2024: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

As you can see, the Venice-Telluride scenario was very common from 2010-2018 with the Venice opener going west six times but beginning with 2019 the trend has not happened.

I can recall thinking that The Truth (19), Parallel Mothers (21) and White Noise (22) all had a pretty good shot at going to TFF and being wrong about them.

Muddying the predictive waters are the fact that director Paolo Sorrentino has recently been an invitee to Telluride.  In 2021 his The Hand of God did the Venice-Telluride thing with it playing Venice on Sept. 2 and then screening in Telluride the next day.

Additionally, La Grazia is being distributed in the U.S. by Mubi which has been a TFF player the last four years or so.

I'm inclined to think that the recent drought of Venice openers coming to Telluride isn't an accident.  It feels like the outcome of a deliberate choice to avoid that.  I have no real evidence other than the fact that the circumstance hasn't occurred for six straight years.

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Ten Bets #3 for TFF #52 / Sentimental Value Trailer / The Mastermind Is Dated

TEN BETS #3 FOR TFF #52

We're creeping up on the time frame for rapid discovery of probable Telluride selections based on information as other major fall film festivals begin to announce their lineups.  For Telluride watchers that chiefly means Toronto, Venice and New York.  Fantastic Fest and BFI/London can also provide clues.  

When those announcements happen they can rapidly change the look of the Ten Bets.  It's all about how a fest frames the premiere status for the films that they include.  Designations that are key over the next few weeks are:

"World Premiere" which is exactly what it sounds like...some fest is telling you that they will be hosting the very first public screening of a film anywhere.  So when Toronto tells you they are "World Premiering" a film that means it won't play Telluride which occurs before TIFF.  

Almost all of Venice's titles are World Premieres.  The best info from Venice comes when they announce their actual screening schedule.  As Venice cranks up a couple of days before TFF starts, films that get scheduled the first three or four days of Venice have time to get to the Colorado Rockies for a portion of TFF.

"International Premiere" which means the first screening outside the films country of origin (though "country of origin" can be a slippery term).  This designation can cut both ways in as far as ruling a film in or out of the TFF lineup.  For example, an American film the screens at Telluride and then at Toronto could be designated by TIFF as an "International Premiere".  When TIFF frames their announcement that way it could be a predictor that the film will play T-ride.  On the other hand, if a French film screens at Cannes and  is announced as an International Premiere by Toronto, that means it is skipping Telluride.

"North American Premiere":  A very useful piece of information for announcements from Toronto or New York as it means no previous play at Telluride.

"Canadian" or "New York" premieres.  In each case this kind of  "local" premiere designation almost always means a Telluride play....but NOT 100% of the time.  You have to remember that Sundance, South by Southwest and Fantastic Fest film titles could also result in the "local" designation for either TIFF or NTFF.

Ultimately all of this explains why changes in the early versions of the Ten Bets are glacial and then become quite dynamic when we begin to see announcements from these other major fests. 

All that said, here's a review of last week's Ten Bets for TFF #52:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Blue Moon/Linklater

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) Sentimental Value/Trier

5) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes

6) Hamnet/Zhao

7) Sirat/Oliver Laxe

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

10) The Love That Remains/Palmason

Other possibilities: Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind.

And now, this week's Ten Bets:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Sentimental Value/Trier

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) Hamnet/Zhao

5) Blue Moon/Linklater

6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe

7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers

9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino

Other possibilities: The Love That Remains/Palmason, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, The History of Sound, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.

Comment: Sentimental Value and Hamnet both gain a couple of spots.  Sirat and Deliver Me from Nowhere move up one spot. Blue Moon and Young Mothers' Home lose some ground and, for now, After the Hunt supplants The Love That Remains in the #10 spot.

SENTIMENTAL VALUE TRAILER

Currently sitting at #2 in the Latest Ten Bets is Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value.  The film won the Grand Prix at Cannes in May and is considered a hot property moving through the fall fest season.  Neon is the film's distributor and they're larder is stacked with Cannes projects that they acquired during and after the festival.

Mubi released a trailer a couple of days ago.  Here it is from YouTube:

Sentimental Value is set to open in the United States on Nov. 7th.

THE MASTERMIND IS DATED

Nest Best Picture revealed this week that Mubi will release Kelly Reichardt's The Mastermind theatrically in the U.S. on Oct. 17th.

That date means it could line up potential plays at Telluride, Toronto and/or New York.  Reichardt was in Telluride in 2019 with the enigmatic First Cow.  

The Mastermind played the Cannes Fest in the Palme d'Or competition.  It stood somewhere in the middle of the competition group critically with a 6.29 average rating as reported by Cannes-Ratings.org.

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Distributor Monday #4: A24 / Bugonia Has a Teaser / Tidbits: Hedda, It Was Just and Accident, Two Prosecutors

 DISTRIBUTOR MONDAY #4: A24

We continue to look at film distribution outlets that have historically had a strong presence at the Telluride Film Festival to see what films they might be proffering to TFF for the 2025 edition.  Today's company is A24.  A24 first landed at Telluride in 2012 with Ginger and Rosa and followed the next year with Jonathan Glazer's Under the Skin which made quite the splash.  Since then A24 has been an almost constant presence at TFF.  Since their debut at T-ride in 2012, A24 has only missed three times: 2014, 2018 and last year.  Last year's absence ended a four year run of A24 having multiple films at the fest including 2023 when it had four: Janet Planet, Occupied City, Tuesday and The Zone of Interest.

So, where does that put A24 on the possibility of being back at TFF in 2025?

The odds suggest that they will be back but...I'm not so sure.  A24 has two pretty big films set to come out this fall season.  Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme (Dec. 25th)  and Benny Safdie's The Smashing Machine (Oct. 3rd).  Pretty clearly with its Christmas Day release, A24 thinks that Marty Supreme is prime awards season catnip.  With Timothee Chalamet in the lead, they're probably right.  

The Smashing Machine is intriguing.  As attested to by what we've seen from photos from the set, Dwayne Johnson has managed a significant makeover.  I get the sense that this is Johnson's play for a prestige picture.

Trying to divine A24's release strategy for these and additionally any fall festival strategy is tough to do.  There are credible reports that The Smashing Machine will play Venice.  Not so much as regards Marty Supreme.

It's worth noting that the Safdie Brothers and A24 debuted Uncut Gems at Telluride in 2019.  It subsequently played Toronto, New York and London before opening in limited release on Dec. 13th followed by going wide on Christmas Day.

A24 also has a couple of other possibilities.  Here's the rundown for each listed in alphabetical order.  All participants who have attended TFF in the past are indicated with *.

Eternity.  Director: David Freyne.  Stars: Miles Teller*, Elizabeth Olsen, DaVine Joy Randolph. Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

After death, everybody gets one week to choose where to spend eternity. For Joan, Larry, and Luke, it's really a question of who to spend it with.

This film is a true wild card from A24 at this point.

Marty Supreme.  Director: Josh Safdie*.  Stars: Timothee Chalamet, Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A'zion.  Release date: Dec. 25th.  IMDb description:

Marty Mauser, a young man with a dream no one respects, goes to hell and back in pursuit of greatness.

Marty probably is A24's best shot at an awards season contender.

Pillion.  Director: Henry Lighton.  Stars: Alexander Skarsgard, Henry Melling.  Won the Screenplay award for Cannes' Un Certain Regard section.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

A directionless man is swept off his feet when an enigmatic, impossibly handsome biker takes him on as his submissive.

A24 acquired Pillion in October of 2024.  It was a critical success at Cannes with a combined of 7.30 on Cannes rating org's critics collective.  That was the 4th best among Un Certain Regard films and 15th best overall for the fest.  Based on this, Pillion might actually be A24's best bet for TFF #52.

The Smashing Machine.  Director: Benny Safdie*.  Stars: Dwayne Johnson, Emily Blunt.  Release date: Oct. 3rd.  IMDb description:

The story of mixed-martial arts and UFC champion Mark Kerr.

As mentioned above, The Smashing Machine is likely to premiere at Venice.  Does it make the jump from Venice to Telluride?  

Chances:

Pillion: 50%

Marty Supreme 25%

The Smashing Machine 25%

Eternity 20%

Next Monday we'll take a look at Searchlight.

BUGONIA HAS A TEASER

The latest collaboration between Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone has a teaser.  Here that is from YouTube:

Bugonia currently sits at #3 on MTFB's Ten Bets for TFF#52.  Most of that is because both Lanthimos films, The Favourite and Poor Things, played Venice and then came to Telluride.  The history is there.  I also think that star and producer Emma Stone really loves Telluride.

The film is a remake of a 2003 South Korean film titled Save the Green Planet.  That film played at the Cannes Film Festival.

TIDBITS: 

***The Toronto International film Festival announced five world premieres for its 2025 edition this past week.  Of the five only one had been among films that I thought had some shot at at TFF #52.  That was Nia DaCosta's Hedda.  With this announcement you can scratch it off your Telluride dance card.  Here's the gist from Variety.

***Current #1 on MTFB's Ten Bets, Jafar Panahi's It Was Just an Accident has been dated for release in the U.S. on Oct. 15th.  The Gold Derby article post with that news notes that for distributor Neon it's essentially the same dating as last year's Palme and Oscar winner Anora.  Does that mean Neon will also follow the same strategy with regard to where the film plays during the fall fest circuit?  My bet, at least right now, is yup!

Here's the link to the Gold Derby post.

***Janus acquires Two Prosecutors.  The Hollywood Reporter reported last week that Janus films had acquired North American rights for Sergei Loznitsa's Two Prosecutors.  The film played in Palme d'Or competition at Cannes in May winning the Francois Chalais Prize.  Janus's play improves the film's profile for TFF consideration.

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Ten Bets #2 for TFF #52 / Variety 's Take on Venice / Roofman has a Trailer

TEN BETS #2 FOR TFF #52

It's Thursday so time to update MTFB's Teb bets for TFF #52.

Here's a review of last week's Ten Bets.

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Blue Moon/Linklater

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) The Love That Remains/Palmason

5) Sentimental Value/Trier

6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes

7) The Secret Agent/Filho

8) Hamnet/Zhao

9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

And here's the updated Bets for this week:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Blue Moon/Linklater

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) Sentimental Value/Trier

5) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes

6) Hamnet/Zhao

7) Sirat/Oliver Laxe

8) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

10) The Love That Remains/Palmason

A little movement here and there from where things were last week.  For the moment The Secret Agent has dropped off the Ten Best...but it could return.  The Love That Remains drops down but stays on the list.  Sirat enters the list at #7.  The top three remain the same with other titles like Sentimental Value and Deliver Me from Nowhere moving up a spot.

Other possibilities: Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind.

VARIETY'S TAKE ON VENICE

We're likely about four weeks away from the announcement of the Venice lineup and then another couple of weeks past that before we find out when the films selected will be scheduled.  Those two chunks of information can help illuminate the possible TFF lineup.

I've passed along a couple of sites that have speculated about potential Venice titles and today I add a piece from Variety with their take on what could play there.  I've scoured the article for possible TFF titles and here's what I came up with:

The Smashing Machine/B. Safdie

After the Hunt/Guadagnino

Bugonia/Lanthimos

Couture/Winocour

Jay Kelly/Baumbach

Frankenstein/Del Toro

A House of Dynamite/Bigelow

Father, Mother, Sister, Brother/Jarmusch

La Grazia/Sorrentino

Click on the link above for the full article.

ROOFMAN HAS A TRAILER

Derek Cianfrance's next film has a trailer and World of Reel suggests that it will have a presence on the fall film fest circuit including a possible play at Telluride.

WOR head honcho, Jordan Ruimy writes that:

"It’s been a long time coming, but Derek Cianfrance is finally back. His latest feature, “Roofman,” is already being positioned for a major festival run in fall 2025." 

 

And further along in the post from yesterday:

"As for where “Roofman” will land on the festival circuit, maybe Telluride? Definitely TIFF. Venice is an outside shot as Cianfrance has been on the Lido before, but isn’t a regular. It’ll all depend on the quality of the film."

The entire article can be accessed here.

The film stars Channing Tatum who was in Telluride in 2014 with Foxcatcher, Kirsten Dunst who was in T-ride in 2021 with The Power of the Dog and Peter Dinklage who was a TFF tribute recipient with Cyrano also in 2021.  Ben Mendelsohn, Juno Temple, Uzo Aduba and LaKeith Stanfield also star.  The IMDb description:

The story of the rooftop robber, Jeffrey Manchester, and his time on the lam evading capture.

And here's the trailer via YouTube:

Roofman is dated for release on Oct. 3rd.

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Distributor Monday #3: Neon / SPC and Nuremburg / World of Reel Venice Update / Springsteen on White...Oh, And the Trailer Again

 DISTRIBUTOR MONDAY: NEON

Neon has come on strong over the last decade as a Telluride staple.  Their first appearance at TFF came in 2016 as the distributor of Errol Morris's The B-Side.  In the years since then Neon has placed 18 other films at TFF for an impressive average of 2.4 films per year.  In that time some other notable titles under the Neon banner that have appeared at TFF include: Last year's Best Picture winner Anora, 2020 Oscar Best Picture winner Parasite, Anatomy of a Fall and Flee.

This year, Neon made the biggest splash at Cannes acquiring a bunch of properties.  Consequently they have a deep roster of films that could play at TFF.  I have at least six films (all of which were Cannes selections in various categories) that could come from Neon to Telluride.  Here's what we know about each of them.  They're arranged  from what I feel is most likely to least likely.  Films that are on my most recent "Ten Bets" list are indicated with +.  Individuals that have been past attendees of TFF are indicated with *.

It Was Just an Accident+.  Director Jafar Panahi* (strictly speaking Panahi didn't attend with his film Taxi).  Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari. Won this year's Palme d'Or at Cannes.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

A small mishap triggers a chain reaction of ever-growing problems.

I believe that should It Was Just a Simple Accident play Telluride it would be the first time in the festival's history to program the Palme d'Or winner for three years running.

Sentimental Value+.  Director: Joachim Trier.  Stars: Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgard*, Elle Fanning.  Won this year's Grand Prize at Cannes.  Release date: Nov. 7th.  IMDb description:

An intimate exploration of family, memories, and the reconciliatory power of art.

Sentimental Value finished Cannes with the second best critical rating of any film playing that fest with an 8.04 cumulative rating (out of 10) from Cannes-Ratings.org.  In contrast Plame d'Or winner It Was Just a Simple Accident was 7th best with a cumulative of 7.76.

The Secret Agent+.  Director: Kleber Mendonça Filho.  Stars: Wagner Moura (won Best Actor at Cannes), Maria Fernanda Cândido.  The film won the FIPRESCI Prize at Cannes.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

In 1977, a technology expert flees from a mysterious past and returns to his hometown of Recife in search of peace. He soon realizes that the city is far from being the refuge he seeks.

The Secret Agent was also well regarded critically at Cannes with a cumulative rating of 7.00 which was the 30th best among all films that played at that Fest.

Sirat.  Director: Oliver Laxe.  Stars: Sergi López, Bruno Núñez Arjona.  The film won the Jury Prize at Cannes.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

A father, accompanied by his son, goes looking for his missing daughter in North Africa.

This is another film with a great critical reception at Cannes.  It had a 7.87 cumulative rating which was the 5th best of the entire fest.  It could well move onto next Thursday's second iteration of MTFB's Ten Bets for TFF #52.

Orwell: 2+2+5.  Director: Raoul Peck. Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

The ultimate and comprehensive documentary film about the exceptional writer George Orwell.

Orwell: 2+2=5 had the 22nd best critical rating from Cannes ratings.org at 7.13.

Alpha.  Director: Julia Ducournau.  Stars: Tahar Rahim*, Emma Mackey.  The film played in Palme d'Or competition at Cannes.  Release date: Sometime in October.  IMDb description:

Alpha, 13, is a troubled teenager who lives alone with her mother. Their world comes crashing down the day she comes home from school with a tattoo on her arm.

Alpha's critical reception at Cannes was tough.  A 47 on Metacritic and a 50 on Rotten Tomatoes.

The assessment of chances for TFF #52:

It Was Just an Accident 70%

Sentimental Value 60%

The Secret Agent 50%

Sirat 50%

Orwell 2+2=5 45%

Alpha 20%

SPC AND NUREMBURG

Sony Pictures Classics might not be done for TFF #52 yet.  SPC announced on Wednesday last week that they had acquired the James Vanderbilt's Nuremburg and plan to release the film on Nov. 7th.  The film stars Russell Crowe as Herman Goring and Rami Malek as the U.S. psychiatrist charged with determining if the Nazi's are mentally competent to stand trial.  Michael Shannon also stars.  In addition to directing Vanderbilt also adapted the screenplay from the book The Nazi and the Psychiatrist.

.m not sold on that 

According to the SPC press release the timing of the release coincides with 80th anniversary of the post-war trials held in Nuremburg, Germany,  It also just happens to be in the Awards season sweet spot.

So, retrofit the SPC speculation from last week and add Nuremburg to the list of TFF possibilities.  I'm not sold on the notion that it does play Telluride but I also don't think it's impossible.  Mark at at a current 35% chance to make the TFF cut.

Here's the link to the full SPC PR release.

WORLD OF REEL AND VENICE

Jordan Ruimy has updated his Venice speculation list as of last Thursday.  Of note is his addition of Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein and Agnieszka Holland's Franz to the list.  Both could also be potentials for T-ride although Ruimy also writes that:

"I’m also hearing that Guillermo del Toro’s long-awaited “Frankenstein” has locked its TIFF premiere..."

Notice that Ruimy doesn't mention what that premiere status is for Toronto but...

Here's Jordan's updated list with what I think has Telluride potential indicated with ***.

After the Hunt (Luca Guadagnino)***

One Battle After Another (PT Anderson)

A House of Dynamite (Kathryn Bigelow)***

Jay Kelly (Noah Baumbach)***

The Way of the Wind (Terrence Malick)

Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos)***

The Smashing Machine (Benny Safdie)

No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook)

Father Mother Brother Sister (Jim Jarmusch)

The Ballad of A Small Player (Edward Berger)***

The Cry of the Guards (Claire Denis)***

Chocobar (Lucrecia Martel)

Sacrifice (Romain Gavras)***

In the Hands of Dante (Julian Schnabel)***

Ann Lee (Mona Fastvold)

Bucking Fastard (Werner Herzog)***

La Grazia (Paolo Sorrentino)***

An Affair (Arnaud Desplechin)

Orphan (Laszlo Nemes)***

The Wizard of Kremlin (Olivier Assayas)***

Franz (Agnieszka Holland)***

Below the Clouds (Gianfranco Rosi)***

Duse (Pietro Marcello)

Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro)***

Couture (Alice Wincour)***

The entirety of Ruimy's post with its extensive analysis is linked here.

 

BTW...add Kathryn Bigelow's A House of Dynamite to the Netflix list from a couple of weeks back.  I'm putting its TFF chances at 30%.

SPRINGSTEEN ON WHITE...OH, AND THE TRAILER AGAIN

I have high hopes that Searchlight brings the Bruce Springsteen biopic Deliver Me from Nowhere to TFF #52.  Right now it and Del Toro's Frankenstein are my two big "hope fors". 

That said, we know director Scott Cooper has been at Telluride a number of times both with and without projects.  We know that the film is being distributed by frequent TFF player Searchlight and we know that the film has a fest friendly release date of Oct. 24th.  So, I got that going for me.

This Past week Springsteen talked to The Hollywood Reporter about the film and the actor Jeremy Allen White who plays The Boss in the film.  Here's that interview. 

And, by the by, we had lots of trouble with linking to the trailer for Deliver Me from Nowhere last week...so here we go again:

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The First Ten Bets for TFF #52 / Deliver Me from Nowhere Has a Trailer / Die My Love Has a Date

THE FIRST TEN BETS FOR TFF #52

Welp...here it is.  2025's first "Ten Bets" attempt to suss out films that might make the TFF #52 lineup.  I do a good deal of research and study to come up with these lists and even then...this first one usually does well to have six titles on it that actually make it to Telluride.

This was my first Ten Bets for last year (with the films that actually made it to TFF #51 in Bold):

1) Anora/Sean Baker

2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof

3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard

4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar

5) Bird/Andrea Arnold

6) Maria/Pablo Larrain

7) Oh, Canada/Paul Schrader

8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer

9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino

10) Conclave/Edward Berger

So seven out of the Ten...a better than average year.

Here's the track record for the first Ten Bets for the last 

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

2019: 4/10

2020: No fest

2021: 8/10

2022: 6/10

2023: 6/10

2024: 7/10

The puts the average at 5.8 correct guesses per year.

So, with that caveat, here is your first Ten Bets for TFF #52:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Blue Moon/Linklater

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) The Love That Remains/Palmason

5) Sentimental Value/Trier

6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes

7) The Secret Agent/Filho

8) Hamnet/Zhao

9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

Let's see what happens.

DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE HAS A TRAILER AND POSTER

Here's the poster:

Scott Cooper's Bruce Springsteen biopic, Deliver Me from Nowhere, dropped a trailer for the film.  Jeremy Allen White plays "The Boss" with Jeremy Strong as Springsteen's manager Jon Landau.  The film reportedly focuses on the period in Springsteen's life when he was working on his Nebraska album.

I have high hopes for the film and also hopes for it to be in Telluride Labor Day.  I hope its appearance at #9 on the first Ten Bets list doesn't jinx its chances.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

 

DIE MY LOVE HAS A DATE

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Lynne Ramsay's Die, My Love will have a wide release on Nov. 7th.  That date puts it in place for possible screenings at Telluride, Toronto, Venice, New York and/or London.  Ruimy suggests Toronto is a real possibility.  

Ramsay was at Telluride in 2011 with We Need to Talk about Kevin.  Prior to that she screened Morvern Callar at T-ride in 2002.  So, chances aren't impossible for a Telluride run.

The film screened at Cannes back in May to mixed reviews but generally universal praise for Jennifer Lawrence's performance.  The Nov. 7th date sets up a reasonable time frame for an awards push for her specifically.

Ruimy's report is here.

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Distributor Monday #2: Sony Pictures Classics / A New Contender for TFF #52

 DISTRIBUTOR MONDAY #2: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS

Sony Pictures Classics (SPC) along with Netflix are the only distributors over the last decade that have averaged more than three films per year at TFF.  Their relationship with TFF has been long and consistent. SPC is the only distributor that has placed a film at T-ride every year for the nine years I looked back on.  They average 2.8 films per year. Last year SPC had two films make the TFF #51 lineup: The Outrun and Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight.

SPC has six films in their basket that seem like possible TFF #52 players.  Here's what we know about each of them.  They're arranged  from what I feel is most likely to least likely.  Individuals have been past attendees of TFF are indicated with *.

Blue Moon.  Director Richard Linklater.  Stars: Ethan Hawke*, Margaret Qualley, Andrew Scott (Best Supporting Performance Berlin Film Festival), Bobby Cannavale.  Played the Berlin International Film Festival.  Release date: Oct. 17th.  IMDb description:

Tells the story of Lorenz Hart's struggles with alcoholism and mental health as he tries to save face during the opening of "Oklahoma!".

Ethan Hawke is a semi-fixture at Telluride.  He was last in Telluride in 2023 with both Wildcat and Strange Way of Life.  Despite the fact that director Richard Linklater has never taken a film to Telluride, this feels like the year and the film to make that happen.

The President's Cake.  Director: Hasan Hadi.  Stars: Baneen Ahmed Nayyef, Waheeda Thabet.  Played at Cannes in the Director's Fortnight section.  It won the Camera d'Or and the Directors Fortnight Audience Award.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

In 1990s Iraq, 9-year-old Lamia must bake the President's birthday cake. She scrambles to find ingredients for this compulsory task while facing potential punishment if she fails.

SPC picked this film up after a very good reception at Cannes critically as well as picking up a couple of awards.  I just have a feeling about this film.

Eleanor the Great.  Director: Scarlett Johansson (directing debut). Stars: June Squibb, Chiwetel Ejiofor*.  Played Cannes Un Certain Regard.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

In Eleanor The Great, June Squibb brings to vivid life the witty and proudly troublesome 94-year-old Eleanor Morgenstein, who after a devastating loss, tells a tale that takes on a dangerous life of its own.

Eleanor the Great played respectably well with critics at Cannes and with the certain push for Squibb for Best Actress in combination with the film being Johansson's directing debut make this an interesting possible choice for TFF.

A Private Life.  Director: Rebecca Zlotowski. Stars: Jodie Foster*, Mathieu Amalric, Daniel Auteuil, Virginia Efira. Played at Cannes Out of Competition.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

The renowned psychiatrist Lilian Steiner mounts a private investigation into the death of one of her patients, whom she is convinced has been murdered.

Jodie Foster was a TFF Tribute recipient back in 1991 when she presented the World Premiere of her directorial debut Little Man Tate.  This film is in French which Foster speaks fluently after have attended school in France when she was younger.

A Magnificent Life.  Director: Sylvain Chomet. Animated.  Played at Cannes Out of Competition.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

It follows the life of (Marcel) Pagnol, a playwright, novelist, and filmmaker who grew up in a middle-class household in Marseille and became one of the world's most inventive and prolific artists from the 1930's to the 1950's.

Chomet has previously screened The Triplets of Belleville and The Illusionist at Telluride. 

Unidentified.  Director: Haifaa Al-Mansour*.  Stars: Mila Al Zahrani, Abdullah Al-Qahtani.  Release date: TBD.  Played the Venice Fest and won the "Interfilm" award (per IMDB). IMDb description: 

A grieving mother, fueled by her passion for true crime, seeks answers when a teenage girl is found dead in the desert and the police investigation stalls.

Al-Mansour was in Telluride in 2012 with Wadjda.  Wadjda was a 2014 BAFTA film nominee for Best Film not in the English language.

Honestly, I think you can make a reasonable case for all six films.

Blue Moon 65%

The President's Cake 50%

Eleanor the Great 45%

A Private Life 40%

A Magnificent Life 40%

Unidentified 35%

Next Monday: we take a look at Neon.

A NEW CONTENDER FOR TFF #52

Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel is reporting on an "out of nowhere" film that could be in the running for a slot at TFF #52.  The film is The Drama and stars Robert Pattinson and Zendaya. The film is written and directed directed by Kristoffer Borgli and was produced, in part, by A24.

IMDb does not yet have a description up for the film but Ruimy writes:

“The Drama” is going to light up festival chatting, and think pieces for months. It’s being described to me as a “very uncomfortable” watch, but with a major dose of sardonic humor.

“(It) centers on a couple, played by Pattinson and Zendaya, whose relationship takes an … unexpected turn right before their wedding day. 

Further, and of more interest to Telluride Film Fest watchers, Ruimy contends:

"While a release date has yet to be announced, I wouldn’t be surprised if the film gets positioned for a fall festival debut, with Venice, Telluride, and TIFF among the likely contenders." 

The complete post from WOR is linked here.

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TFF #52 Poster Released / 50 Fall Film Possibilities / Cannes Sales Update /

TFF #52 POSTER RELEASED

It dropped yesterday and here it is:

And the press release from TFF:

We are proud to unveil our 2025 Festival poster, created by celebrated cartoonist and graphic novelist Daniel Clowes.

Daniel Clowes is one of the most influential and acclaimed figures in contemporary graphic storytelling. Best known for his seminal comic-book series Eightball and the cult classic graphic novel Ghost World, Clowes has defined the landscape of alternative comics for over three decades. His body of work includes Like a Velvet Glove Cast in Iron, David Boring, Ice Haven, The Death-Ray, Wilson, and Patience. His most recent book, Monica, was named by Kirkus Reviews as one of the 100 greatest works of fiction of the 21st century.

Clowes received an Academy Award nomination (with Terry Zwigoff) for the screenplay adaptation of Ghost World and has been recognized with a PEN America Literary Award, as well as numerous Eisner and Harvey Awards. His work has been exhibited in a solo retrospective, Modern Cartoonist, at The Museum of Contemporary Art in Chicago and other venues. His illustrations have appeared on movie posters, album covers, multiple covers of The New Yorker, and even a Hermès scarf. He lives in Oakland, California with his wife Erika.

Clowes shared, “I’m thankful to the Telluride Film Festival for giving me the opportunity to focus my energy on something unassailably positive and noble in these dystopic times.”

Festival director Julie Huntsinger adds, “We’ve long admired Dan’s unparalleled ability to tell emotional, layered stories through both image and language. His poster for this year’s festival is a rich and brilliant capsule of that – a perfect reflection of his depth and wit through the lens of cinema and all that it can offer.”

50 FALL FILM POSSIBILITIES

Ezra Cubero writing for Silver Screen Express has posted his annual set of speculation about which films might go where as regards Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York.  It's an interesting take with some surprise.

I culled the post and began by creating a list of the films that Cubero thinks have some shot at the TFF #52 lineup.  It's a lengthy list which follows below (with director listed to the right).

After the Hunt/Guadagnino

Anemone/Day-Lewis

At the Sea/Mundruczo

Blue Moon/Linklater*

Bugonia/Lanthimos

Christy Martin Biopic/Michod

Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

Eleanor the Great/Johansson

Hamnet/Zhao

Hedda/DaCosta

The History of Sound/Hermanus

It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

Jay Kelly/Baumbach

Kiss of the Spiderwoman/Condon*

Late Fame/Jones

A Magnificent Life/Chomet

Marty Supreme/J. Safdie

The Mastermind/Reichardt

Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

Rental Family/Hikari

The Rivals of Amziah King/Patterson**

Roofman/Cianfrance

The Secret Agent/Filho

Sentimental Value/Trier

Sirat/Laxe

The Smashing Machine/B. Safdie

Sound of Falling/Schiliniski

* indicates a premiere at Sundance

** indictaes a premiere at South by Southwest

Notable films that Cubero does not mention as a Telluride possibility at all:

Alpha/Ducournau

The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

Die My Love/Ramsay

Father Mother Sister Brother/Jarmusch

Frankenstein/Del Toro

One Battle After Another/PT Anderson

And one last note.  Cubero doesn't pick Bradley Cooper's Is This Thing On for Telluride but does write about it saying: "Telluride might not happen."  Which isn't a total rejection of its chances.

Cubero was pretty solid on this last year hitting 13 films he listed as "Yes" or "Maybe" for Telluride that actually made the lineup.  His post last year went up on June 24th.

Cubero's entire fascinating piece is linked here.

CANNES SALES UPDATE

Indiewire has kept track of sales during and after the 78th Cannes Film Fest and I have taken a look at buyers/titles that do not have an announced release date or do have a release date post-Telluride.  I also focused on distributors that have had a fairly serious presence at TFF over the past few years.

Here's the rundown beginning with Neon, which went on a buying spree.

Neon (7): It Was Just an Accident, Sirat, The Secret Agent, Alpha, Orwell 2+2=5, Sentimental Value, Splitsville.

Mubi (5): Sound of Falling, Die My Love, The History of Sound, The Mastermind, My Father's Shadow.

Sony Pictures Classics (3): The President's Cake, Eleanor the Great, A Magnificent Life.

Janus Films (3): Magellan, The Love That Remains, Resurrection.

Netflix (2): Left-Handed Girl, Nouvelle Vague.

A24 (1): Pillion.

Kino Lorber (1): Amrum.

Lots of TFF potential here.

The complete list from Indiewire is here.

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Distributors Monday: Netflix / Animal Farm Clip / Tidbits

DISTRIBUTORS MONDAY: NETFLIX

We start this Monday (and the next several Mondays) by taking a look at the dozen or so distributors that frequently have films in the Telluride Film festival.  Distribution companies are the key connection between a film and where and when it plays.  Taking a look at the films that they have available can, sometimes, give us insight as to what might make the Labor Day weekend fest.

And sometimes not.  In prep to do this nearly annual assessment of distribution companies I looked back at my track record.  It's not that great.  So take these guesses with a big, big grain of salt.  Nevertheless, the list of possible films from each outlet, at a minimum, gives us a pretty extensive group of titles to consider.

So we begin these looks with Netflix and the reason we begin here is that Netflix has placed more films at T-ride over the last decade than any other distributor including Roma, The Irishman, Marriage Story and The Power of the Dog.

At this point it looks like Netflix has five possibilities, although there are likely more which are fairly obscure at this point.  Here's a bit of info on each which are listed in order of what I think the chances are for them to be at TFF #52. (Individuals who have previously attended Telluride are indicated with *).

The Ballad of a Small Player.  Director: Edward Berger*.  Stars: Colin Farrell, Tilda Swinton*.  Release Date: TBD. IMDb description:

When his past and his debts start to catch up with him, a high-stakes gambler laying low in Macau encounters a kindred spirit who might just hold the key to his salvation.

 

Berger's appearance last year with Conclave and its level of success make me think that "Ballad" has a good shot at TFF #52.

Jay Kelly.  Director: Noah Baumbach*.  Stars: George Clooney*, Adam Sandler*, Billy Crudup*, Laura Dern*, Emily Mortimer, Patrick Wilson, Greta Gerwig*.  Release date: Nov. 14th (though IMDb already says it will play the Venice Film Fest).  IMDb description:

Everyone knows Jay Kelly, but he doesn't know himself.

Baumbach at Telluride: Margot at the Wedding, Frances Ha and Marriage Story.

There are so many people involved in Jay Kelly that have been to TFF that you sort of have to believe Jay Kelly is a cinch but plenty of Baumbach's work has not played there including: The Squid and the Whale, Greenburg, While We're Young, Mistress America and White Noise.

Frankenstein.  Director: Guillermo Del Toro*.  Stars: Oscar Isaac*, Jacob Elordi, Mia Goth and Christoph Waltz.  Release date:  IMDb lists its internet release as Nov. 2025.  No news about a theatrical release.  IMDb description:

A brilliant but egotistical scientist brings a creature to life in a monstrous experiment that ultimately leads to the undoing of both the creator and his tragic creation.

Having seen the trailer for this, it's one of my most hoped-for possibilities.  However, despite Del Toro's past at TFF (as well as that of his "amigos" Inarritu and Cuaron) I'm just not sure this makes the trip.

Left-Handed Girl.  Director: Shih-Ching Tsou,  Stars: Janel Tsai. Played Cannes Critics Week section. Release date: TBD.  IMDb description: 

A single mother and her two daughters relocate to Taipei to open a night market stall, each navigating the challenges of adapting to their new environment while striving to maintain family unity.

Netflix picked this up at Cannes after the film was very well received critically.  Additionally Sean Baker, fresh off of winning four Oscars for Anora, is co-writer, producer and editor of the film.    That makes me think it could be a TFF choice.

Nouvelle Vague. Director: Richard Linklater.  Stars: Guillaume Marbeck, Zoey Deucth, Aubry Dullin. Played Cannes Palme Competition category.   Release date: TBD.  IMDb description: 

Follows the production of Jean-Luc Godards's "Breathless".

Linklater, to the best of my knowledge, has never had a film at TFF.  A few posts back I wrote that this could be the year that changes that with this and his other film, Blue Moon, both coming out.  Blue Moon does have an announced release date of Oct. 17th.

Chances:

The Ballad of a Small Player 50%

Jay Kelly 40%

Frankenstein 35%

Left-Handed Girl 30%

Nouvelle Vague 20%

Next Monday: Sony Pictures Classics

ANIMAL FARM CLIP

In my previous post I passed along the news that Andy Serkis's Animal Farm is ready to roll.  It is headed for the Annecy International Animation Festival which kicked off yesterday.  The film also has a clip up now on YouTube.  Here it is:

TIDBITS

***Neon has announced that Cannes Grand Prix winner Sentimental Value will be released in the U.S. on November 7th.  That would allow a combo of Telluride and/or Toronto and New York.

***World of Reel reports that the Venice Film Fest will screen Jim Jarmusch's Father Mother Sister Brother and Paolo Sorrentino's La Grazia.  Venice won't actually announce its lineup for another month and then it won't be until August until they announce their screening schedule which can point to Telluride titles.

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