Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATED PREDIX FOR PRODUCTION DESIGN, COSTUMES, MAKEUP/HAIR, SOUND AND VISUALE EFFECTS
Today we update the final five feature categories with predictions for Production Design, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Sound and Visual Effects. A film's previous ranking is to he right of the title in parentheses. All TFF #52 films are in Bold. Here they are:
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Frankenstein (1)
2) Sinners (4)
3) Hamnet (2)
4) Wicked: For Good (3)
5) Marty Supreme (NR)
Others: Avatar: Fire and Ash, One Battle After Another and The Fantastic Four: First Steps.
COSTUME DESIGN
1) Frankenstein (2)
2) Wicked: For Good (1)
3) Sinners (3)
4) Hamnet (4)
5) One Battle After Another (NR)
Others: Hedda and Marty Supreme and Train Dreams.
MAKEUP AND HAIR
1) Frankenstein (1)
2) Wicked: For Good (2)
3) Sinners (4)
4) The Smashing Machine (3)
5) One Battle After Another (NR)
Others: Kokuho, The Ugly Stepsister and The Alto Knights.
SOUND DESIGN
1) Sinners (2)
2) F1 (1)
3) One Battle After Another (4)
4) Wicked: For Good (3)
5) Frankenstein (NR)
Others: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Sirat andSpringsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere..
VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)
2) F1 (2)
3) Frankenstein (5)
4) Superman (4)
5) Sinners (NR)
Others: Wicked: For Good, Tron: Ares, Jurassic World Rebirth.
As of this morning's post if the MTFB Oscar Take is 100% accurate, Ten TFF films will earn 42 nominations on announcement morning-Jan. 22nd. Hamnet will lead TFF films with 11 nominations.
Here's how that could shake out:
Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley). Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Costumes, Cinematography, Editing, Original Score and Production Design.
Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Sound and Visual Effects.
Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning and Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Original Screenplay and International Feature.
It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, International Feature and Original Screenplay.
Jay Kelly (2): Best Picture and Original Screenplay.
The Secret Agent (2): Best Actor (Moura) and International Feature.
Bugonia (2): Best Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.
Blue Moon (1): Best Actor (Hawke).
Cover-Up (1) Best Documentary.
Apocalypse in the Tropics (TFF #52) (1): Best Documentary.
One Battle After Another and Sinners are currently predicted to lead all nominees with 13 each.
NOMINATIONS
SATELLITE AWARDS
International Press Academy's nominees for the Satellite Awards for TFF films:
Hamnet (10): Best Picture/Drama, Direction, Actress/Drama (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costumes and Score.
Frankenstein (10): Best Picture/Drama, Direction, Actor (Isaac), Supporting Actor (Elordi), Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Score, Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects.
Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture/Drama, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning and Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Original Screenplay and International Feature.
Bugonia (5): Best Picture/Comedy or Musical, Best Actor/Comedy or Musical (Plemons), Best Actress/Comedy or Musical (Stone), Adapted Screenplay and Makeup/Hair.
It Was Just an Accident (3): Best Direction, Original Screenplay and International Feature.
The Secret Agent (2): Best Actor/Comedy or Musical (Moura), International Feature.
Jay Kelly (2): Best Actor/Comedy or Musical (Clooney), Original Screenplay.
Nouvelle Vague (1): Best Picture/Comedy or Musical.
Blue Moon (1): Best Actor/Comedy or Musical (Hawke).
If I had Legs I'd Kick You (1): Best Actress/Comedy or Musical (Byrne).
Cover-Up (1): Best Documentary.
USC SCRIPTER AWARD NOMINATIONS:
Of the five nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay TFF #52 had two: Hamnet and Frankenstein. The other three were: Train Dreams, One Battle After another and Peter Hujar's Day.
MTFB OSCAR TAKE AFTER SHORT LISTS: CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING, SCORE AND SONG
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Sinners (3)
2) One Battle after Another (2)
3) Hamnet (1)
4) Frankenstein (4)
5) Train Dreams (5)
Others: F1, Marty Supreme and Nouvelle Vague.
BEST EDITING
1) One Battle After Another (1)
2) Sinners (2)
3) F1 (4)
4) Marty Supreme (5)
5) Hamnet (3)
Others: Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1) Sinners (1)
2) One Battle After Another (2)
3) Hamnet (3)
4) Frankenstein (4)
5) Train Dreams (NR)
Others: F1, Marty Supreme and Bugonia.
ORIGINAL SONG
1) Golden/K Pop Demon Hunters (1)
2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)
3) Dear Me/Diane Warren: Relentless (3)
4) The Girl in the Bubble/Wicked: For Good (4)
5) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (NR)
Others: Last Time (I Seen the Sun)/Sinners, No Place Like Home/Wicked: For Good and Drive/F1.
OSCAR SHORTLISTS AND TFF
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced its Shortlists for 12 different categories as Academy members get ready to cast their votes to nominate films and individuals for the 2026 Oscars. At this point a film can only be nominated in any of the 12 categories if they have been shortlisted.
Among the films from TFF #52 Frankenstein lead the way with six mentions. Overall TFF #52 were mentioned 27 times across a broad array of the ten categories. Here' where TFF films landed:
Frankenstein (6): Best Casting, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Score, Sound and Visual Effects.
Hamnet (3): Casting, Cinematography and Score.
Sentimental Value (3): Casting, Cinematography and International Feature.
The Secret Agent (2): Best International Feature and Casting.
The London Film Critics Circle has named their nominees for film excellence. Here's how TFF #52 faired:
Hamnet (8): Film of the Year, British/Irish Film of the Year, Director of the Year, Screenwriter of the Year, Actress of the Year, British/Irish Performer of the Year, Young British/Irish Performer of the Year (X 2).
The Mastermind (4): Film of the Year, Actor of the Year, British/Irish Performer of the Year, Technical Achievement: Music.
Sentimental Value (4): Film of the Year, Foreign Film of the Year, Actress of the Year, Supporting Actress of the Year.
Pillion (3): British/Irish Film of the Year, Supporting Actor of the Year, Breakthrough Filmmaker.
The Secret Agent (2): Foreign Film of the Year, Actor of the Year.
Urchin (2): Breakthrough Performer of the Year, Breakthrough Filmmaker.
Single nominations for:
It was Just an Accident: Foreign Film of the Year.
Cover-Up: Documentary of the Year.
One to One: John and Yoko: Documentary of the Year (*TFF 51)
MTFB OSCAR TAKE: SECOND PREDICTIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL, DOCUMENTARY AND ANIMATED FEATURES AND CASTING
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) Sentimental Value (Norway) (1)
2) It Was Just an Accident (France) (2)
3) The Secret Agent (Brazil) (3)
4) No Other Choice (South Korea) (4)
5) Sirat (Spain) (NR)
Others: The Voice of hind Rajab, Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) and 2000 Meters to Andriivka.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)
2) 2000 Meters to Andriivka (2)
3) Apocalypse in the Tropics (TFF #51) (3)
4) Cover-Up (5)
5) The Alabama Solution (4)
Others: Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, Orwell: 2+2=5, and Come See Me in the Good Light.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)
2) Zootopia 2 (3)
3) Arco (2)
4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (NR)
5) Elio (4)
Others: In Your Dreams, The Magnificent Life, Scarlet.
BEST CASTING
1) Sinners (2)
2) One Battle After Another (1)
3) Marty Supreme (3)
4) Hamnet (5)
5) Wicked: For Good (4)
Others: Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man and Nouvelle Vague.
NEW YORK CRITICS ONLINE ANNOUNCE 2025 NOMINEES
13 Telluride #52 films earned 41 nominations this past week from The New York Film Critics Online. Hamnet and Sentimental lead the way for TFF films with each film grabbing 10 nominations. Here's the list:
Hamnet (10): Best Picture, Direction, Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actor (X2), Ensemble, Use of Music, Cinematography and Breakthrough Performance.
Sentimental Value (10): Best Picture, Direction, Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress (X2), Supporting Actor, Ensemble, Breakthrough Performance and International Feature.
It was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Ensemble and International Feature.
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (3): Best Picture, Screenplay and Actress.
Bugonia (3): Best Screenplay, Actress and Actor.
The Secret Agent (2): Best Actor and International Feature.
Frankenstein (2): Best Supporting Actor and Cinematography.
Pillion (2): Best Supporting Actor and Debut Director.
Blue Moon (1): Best Actor.
Jay Kelly (1): Best Supporting Actor.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (1): Best Use of Music.
MTFB OSCAR TAKE: SUPPORTING ACTING AND SCREENPLAYS #4
Here are the updated predictions for the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories. TFF #52 films and performers are in Bold. A film's previous ranking is to the right of the title in parentheses.
SUPPRORTING ACTRESS
1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (2)
2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (1)
3) Amy Madigan/Weapons (3)
4) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (4)
5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)
Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners and Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)
2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)
3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet
4) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)
5) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (NR)
Others: Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and William H. Macy/Train Dreams.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Sinners (1)
2) Sentimental Value (2)
3) Marty Supreme (NR)
4) It Was Just an Accident (5)
5) Jay Kelly (4)
Others: The Secret Agent, Weapons and The House of Dynamite.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Hamnet (1)
2) One Battle After Another (2)
3) Bugonia (3)
4) Train Dreams (4)
5) Frankenstein (NR)
Others: Wake Up Dead Man, No Other Choiceand Nuremburg.
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MTFB OSCAR TAKE: BEST PICTURE, DIRECTION AND LEAD ACTING #4
BEST PICTURE
1) One Battle After Another (1)
2) Hamnet (2)
3) Sinners (3)
4) Marty Supreme (5)
5) Sentimental Value (4)
6) Frankenstein (7)
7) It Was Just an Accident (8)
8) Jay Kelly (9)
9) Wicked: For Good (6)
10) Train Dreams (10)
Others: Avatar: Fire and Ice, Bugonia and The Secret Agent.
Notes: Wicked: for Good takes a substantial drop. The Frankenstein charge continues.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)
2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)
3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)
4) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (4)
5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (5)
Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein and Park Chan-wook/No Other Choice.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)
2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)
3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)
4) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (5)
4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)
Others: Chase Infiniti/OBAA, Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You and Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue.
BEST ACTOR
1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)
2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)
3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)
4) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)
5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (4)
Others: Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), George Clooney/Jay Kelly and Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
MORE OF THE DELUGE
Critics and Film Organizations continued these past few days with their lists of "Best Ofs" and/or nominations.
GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS
The Golden Globe nominations were announced this morning. TFF #52 films did well earning a collective 36 nominations. One Battle After Another led all films with nine nominations.. Here's the rundown of TFF #52 nominees:
Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture/Drama, Non-English Language Film, Actress/Drama, Supporting Actress X 2, Supporting actor, Direction, Screenplay.
Hamnet (6): Best Picture/Drama, Actress/Drama. Supporting Actor, Director, Screenplay and Score.
Frankenstein (5): best Picture/Drama, Actor/Drama, Supporting Actor, Director, Score.
It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture/Drama, Non-English Language Film, Director, Screenplay.
The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture/Drama, Non-English Language Film, Actor/Drama
Bugonia (3): Best Picture/Musical or Comedy, Actress/Musical or Comedy, Actor Musical or Comedy.
Blue Moon (2): Best Picture/Musical or Comedy, Actor/Musical or Comedy.
Jay Kelly (2): Best Actor/Musical or Comedy, Supporting Actor.
Springsteen; Deliver Me from Nowhere (1): Best Actor/Musical or Comedy.
If I had Legs Id' Kick You (1): Best Actress/Musical or Comedy.
Nouvelle Vague (1): Best Picture/Musical or Comedy.
The L.A. Film Critics' Association named their best films in a number of categories. Six TFF #52 films earned Best Of or Runner-up Status. They were:
The Secret Agent: Best Film/Runner-up, Best Non English-Language Film, Lead Performance/Runner-up.
Blue Moon: Best Lead Performance, Supporting actor/Runner-up.
Sentimental Value: Best Supporting Performance, Supporting Performance/Runner-up.
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Lead Performance.
It Was Just an Accident; Best Screenplay.
Frankenstein; Production Design/Runner-up.
CRITICS' CHOICE NOMINATIONS
Sinners lead all films with 17 total CCA nominations followed by One Battle After Another with 14. TFF#52 films held their own though with both Hamnet and Frankenstein grabbing 11 nominations (the third highest total). TFF #52 films earned a total of 41 nominations.
Here's the TFF #52 breakdown:
HAMNET (Focus Features) – 11
Best Picture
Best Actress – Jessie Buckley
Best Supporting Actor – Paul Mescal
Best Young Actor / Actress – Jacobi Jupe
Best Director – Chloé Zhao
Best Adapted Screenplay – Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell
Best Casting and Ensemble – Nina Gold
Best Cinematography – Łukasz Żal
Best Production Design – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
Best Costume Design – Malgosia Turzanska
Best Score – Max Richter
FRANKENSTEIN (Netflix) – 11
Best Picture
Best Supporting Actor – Jacob Elordi
Best Director – Guillermo del Toro
Best Adapted Screenplay – Guillermo del Toro
Best Cinematography – Dan Laustsen
Best Production Design – Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
Best Costume Design – Kate Hawley
Best Hair and Makeup – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, Cliona Furey
Best Visual Effects – Dennis Berardi, Ayo Burgess, Ivan Busquets, José Granell
Best Score – Alexandre Desplat
Best Sound – Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern, Greg Chapman
SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Neon) – 7
Best Picture
Best Actress – Renate Reinsve
Best Supporting Actor – Stellan Skarsgård
Best Supporting Actress – Elle Fanning
Best Supporting Actress – Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Best Director – Joachim Trier
Best Original Screenplay – Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
JAY KELLY (Netflix) – 4
Best Picture
Best Supporting Actor – Adam Sandler
Best Original Screenplay – Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
Best Casting and Ensemble – Douglas Aibel, Nina Gold
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: FIRST PREDIX FOR FINAL FIVE FEATURE CATEGORIES
Today we add final five feature categories with initial predictions for Production Design, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Sound and Visual Effects. All TFF #52 films are in Bold. Here they are:
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Frankenstein
2) Hamnet
3) Wicked: For Good
4) Sinners
5) Avatar: Fire and Ash
Others: Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another and The Phoenician Scheme.
COSTUME DESIGN
1) Wicked: For Good
2) Frankenstein
3) Sinners
4) Hamnet
5) Kiss of the Spiderwoman
Others: One Battle After Another, Hedda and Marty Supreme.
MAKEUP AND HAIR
1) Frankenstein
2) Wicked: For Good
3) The Smashing Machine
4) Sinners
5) Weapons
Others: 28 Years Later, Bugonia and One Battle After Another.
SOUND DESIGN
1) F1
2) Sinners
3) Wicked: For Good
4) One Battle After Another
5) Avatar: Fire and Ash
Others: Frankenstein, Sinners, Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere..
VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Avatar: Fire and Ash
2) F1
3) Wicked: For Good
4) Superman
5) Frankenstein
Others: Sinners, Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning and The Fantastic Four.
Sooo...at this point, if the nominations were announced tomorrow, MTFB is currently predicting the following :
Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design and Costumes.
Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Two in Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor Original Screenplay, and International Feature.
Frankenstein (7): Best Picture, Cinematography, Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.
It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and International Feature.
Jay Kelly (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.
Bugonia (2): Best Actress and Adapted Screenplay.
The Secret Agent (2): Best Actor and International Feature.
Single nominations for:
Blue Moon: Best Actor.
Cover-Up: Best Documentary.
and from TFF #51: Apocalypse in the Tropics: Best Documentary.
That's 10 TFF films nominated and a total of 40 nominations.
THE DELUGE BEGINS
Pre-nomination Oscar precursors bean to weigh in with force the past few days. TFF films were faring moderately well.
New York Film Critics Circle: TFF films awarded were:
Best Direction: Jafar Pahani/It Was Just an Accident.
Best International Film: The Secret Agent.
Best actress: Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.
Best Actor: Walter Moura/The Secret Agent.
The Gotham Awards and TFF films:
Best Direction: Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident
Best International Feature: It Was Just an Accident.
Best Original Screenplay: It Was Just an Accident.
Pillion: Best Adapted Screenplay.
National Board of Review:
Best Actress: Rose Byrne/If I had Legs I'd Kick You.
Best Supporting Actress: Inga Idsbotter Lileaas/Sentimental Value.
Best International Film: It Was Just an Accident.
Best Documentary: Cover-Up.
From NBR's Top Films list: Frankenstein, Jay Kelly.
From NBR's Top Five International Films: The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value.
From NBR's Top Ten Independent Films: If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, The Mastermind, Urchin.
QUICK POST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY: MTFB FIRST OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS FOR FOUR CATEGORIES
Welcome to MTFB and Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. Today we have a short post due to the holiday. But and important post it is as I begin to expand the breadth of MTFB's Oscar predictions. Todo so I'm adding first predictions for four categories including the newly added category of Best Casting. Additionally, we'll take a first shot at Best International Film, Best Documentary and Best Animated Film. As always TFF #52 (and #51) are indicated in Bold. Here we go!
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
1) Sentimental Value (Norway)
2) It Was Just an Accident (France)
3) The Secret Agent (Brazil)
4) No Other Choice (South Korea)
5) The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
Others: The President's Cake (Iraq), Sirat (Spain) and Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan).
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) The Perfect Neighbor
2) 2000 Meters to Andriivka
3) Apocalypse in the Tropics (TFF #51)
4) The Alabama Solution
5) Cover-Up
Others: Orwell: 2+2=5, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk and The Librarians.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) K-Pop Demon Hunters
2) Arco
3) Zootopia 2
4) Elio
5) In Your Dreams
Others: Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, The Magnificent Life, Scarlet.
BEST CASTING
1) One Battle After Another
2) Sinners
3) Marty Supreme
4) Wicked: For Good
5) Hamnet
Others: Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man and Train Dreams.
MTFB returns Monday with first predictions in four other categories.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING SUPPORTING ACTING AND SCREENPLAYS
Before we head into the predictions for Oscar categories that haven't appeared in MTFB thus far this season; here are the updated predictions for the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories. TFF #52 films and performers are in Bold. A film's previous ranking is to the right of the title in parentheses.
SUPPRORTING ACTRESS
1) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)
2) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)
3) Amy Madigan/Weapons (4)
4) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (3)
5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)
Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Odessa A'Zion/Marty Supreme.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)
2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)
3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)
4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)
5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)
Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Sinners (1)
2) Sentimental Value (2)
3) Marty Supreme (3)
4) Jay Kelly (4)
5) It Was Just an Accident (5)
Others: Is This Thing On?, The Secret Agent and Weapons.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Hamnet (1)
2) One Battle After Another (2)
3) Bugonia (4)
4) Train Dreams (5
5) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)
Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choiceand Wicked: For Good.
COVER-UP TRAILER AND INTERVIEW
Here's the official trailer for Laura Poitras' documentary about reporter Seymour Hersh. from Netflix via YouTube:
Additionally, an interview from Variety with Poitras and co-director and Mark Obenhaus.
I have usually been pretty diligent about noticing viewership milestones but in the craziness of the last three months I overlooked that MTFB had passed a fairly significant one. according to the view tracker MTFB passed One and a half million views somewhere around Halloween.
As of this morning I have posted 2401 times. 2402 if you count this one. That means an average of 634 views per post.
The most viewed post is from Jan. 4, 2018. It's about Film Guilds and the Oscar season and an interview from Variety with Saoirse Ronan and Greta Gerwig on Lady Bird. Over 2,750 views.
As always, thanks to all of you who follow my obsession.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2
Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social
MTFB's Facebook Page
MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays
If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com
MTFB OSCAR PREDICTIONS #3: BEST PIC, DIRECTION, LEAD ACTING
MTFB begins its expansion of Oscar nomination predictions today by updating four categories. I'll update the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories on Monday and a week from today start to provide predictions in the other 13 feature film categories.
or today and Monday you can see the last predicted position of each film to the right of the title in parentheses. TFF #52 films/performers are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) One Battle After Another (1)
2) Hamnet (2)
3) Sinners (3)
4) Sentimental Value (4)
5) Marty Supreme (5)
6) Wicked: For Good (6)
7) Frankenstein (9)
8) It Was Just an Accident (7)
9) Jay Kelly (8)
10) Train Dreams (NR)
Others: Bugonia, Avatar: Fire and Ice, F1.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)
2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)
3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)
4) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)
5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)
Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)
2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)
3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)
4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)
5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (5)
Others: Chase Infiniti/OBAA, Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue,Sidney and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.
1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)
2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)
3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)
4) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)
5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (4)
Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
EUROPEAN FILM AWARD NOMINATIONS AND TFF
Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value led the first wave of European Film Awards nominations announced last Tuesday. Here are the nominations for TFF films:
Sentimental Value: Best European Film, Director, Actress (Reinsve), Actor (Sarsgard), Screenwriter.
It Was Just an Accident: Best European Film, Director, Screenwriter.
La Grazia: Best European Actor (Servillo) and Screenwriter.
Bugonia: Best European Director.
And from TFF #51: Riefenstahl: Best European Film and Documentary.
I'm through the second wave of predictions for the 2026 Oscars and the eight " Above the Line" categories. I'll start expanding the predictions with Thursday's post to eventually include all 24 categories (up from 23 as The Academy has added Best Casting as a new Oscar category for this year).
But before I go into the expanded set of predictions, here's a reminder of where MTFB has nominees predicted currently. These predictions were posted between Nov. 3rd and Nov. 13th. TFF #52 films/performers are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) One Battle After Another (1)
2) Hamnet (2)
3) Sinners (3)
4) Sentimental Value (4)
5) Marty Supreme (5)
6) Wicked: For Good (9)
7) It Was Just an Accident (8)
8) Jay Kelly (6)
9) Frankenstein (NR)
10) Bugonia (NR)
Others: Train Dreams, Avatar: Fire and Ice, The Secret Agent and A House of Dynamite.
Comment: Big moves up for Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Dropping for Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)
2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)
3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)
4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)
5) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)
Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)
2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)
3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)
4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)
5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (NR)
Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue,Sidney Sweeney/Christy and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.
1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (2)
2) Leonardo Di Caprio/OBAA (1)
3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)
4) Ethan Hawke (NR)
5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)
Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
SUPPRORTING ACTRESS
1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)
2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)
3) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (4)
4) Amy Madigan/Weapons (3)
5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)
Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Hailee Steinfeld/Sinners.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)
2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)
3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)
4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)
5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)
Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Sinners (1)
2) Sentimental Value (2)
3) Marty Supreme (3)
4) Jay Kelly (4)
5) It Was Just an Accident (5)
Others: A House of Dynamite, Weapon and Blue Moon.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Hamnet (2)
2) One Battle After Another (1)
3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)
4) Bugonia (4)
5) Train Dreams (5)
Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choiceand Wicked: For Good.
COMMENT: Sentimental Value is predicted to earn seven nominations in these eight categories to lead the way. Here's the breakdown of the 10 films MTFB has with possible Oscar nominations in the Big Eight categories:
Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Supporting Actress (Ibsdotter Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Original Screenplay.
Hamnet (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay.
Jay Kelly (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Sandler), Original Screenplay.
Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.
It Was Just an Accident (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.
The Secret Agent (1): Best Actor (Moura).
Blue Moon (1): Best Actor (Hawke).
Other "possible" nominations:
Frankenstein: Best Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay.
Jay Kelly: Best Direction, Actor (Clooney).
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere: Best Actor (White), Supporting Actor (Strong).
The Secret Agent: Best Picture.
If I Had Legs I's Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).
Blue Moon: Best Original Screenplay.
Total MTFB predicted nominations from these eight categories for Telluride films: 22
Other "possible" nominations: 10.
LOOKS AT JAY KELLY
With its release coming in less than a month (Dec. 5th), the P.R. is ramping up for Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly starring George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern. Here's a taste of some of the promo that's in the air for the film.
