MTFB Oscar Take: Best Picture, Direction and Lead Acting / More of the Deluge: Golden Globes, Critic's Choice and The American Film Institute / La Grazia Trailer

MTFB OSCAR TAKE:  BEST PICTURE, DIRECTION AND LEAD ACTING #4

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Marty Supreme (5)

5) Sentimental Value (4)

6) Frankenstein (7)

7) It Was Just an Accident (8)

8) Jay Kelly (9)

9) Wicked: For Good (6)

10) Train Dreams (10)

Others: Avatar: Fire and Ice, Bugonia and The Secret Agent.

 

Notes: Wicked: for Good takes a substantial drop.  The Frankenstein charge continues.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein and Park Chan-wook/No Other Choice.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)

4) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (5)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

Others: Chase Infiniti/OBAA, Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You and Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue.

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (4)

Others: Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), George Clooney/Jay Kelly and  Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

MORE OF THE DELUGE

Critics and Film Organizations continued these past few days with their lists of "Best Ofs" and/or nominations. Notably this morning were the Golden Globe nominations and earlier were the Critics' Choice Awards Nominations and the "Best Of" list for 2025 from the American Film Institute.

GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS

CRITICS' CHOICE NOMINATIONS

Sinners lead all films with 17 total CCA nominations followed by One Battle After Another with 14.  TFF#52 films held their own though with both Hamnet and Frankenstein grabbing 11 nominations (the third highest total). TFF #52 films earned a total of 41 nominations.

Here's the TFF #52 breakdown:

HAMNET (Focus Features) – 11

Best Picture

Best Actress – Jessie Buckley

Best Supporting Actor – Paul Mescal

Best Young Actor / Actress – Jacobi Jupe

Best Director – Chloé Zhao

Best Adapted Screenplay – Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell

Best Casting and Ensemble – Nina Gold

Best Cinematography – Łukasz Żal

Best Production Design – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton

Best Costume Design – Malgosia Turzanska

Best Score – Max Richter

FRANKENSTEIN (Netflix) – 11

Best Picture

Best Supporting Actor – Jacob Elordi

Best Director – Guillermo del Toro

Best Adapted Screenplay – Guillermo del Toro

Best Cinematography – Dan Laustsen

Best Production Design – Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau

Best Costume Design – Kate Hawley

Best Hair and Makeup – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, Cliona Furey

Best Visual Effects – Dennis Berardi, Ayo Burgess, Ivan Busquets, José Granell

Best Score – Alexandre Desplat

Best Sound – Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern, Greg Chapman

SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Neon) – 7

Best Picture

Best Actress – Renate Reinsve

Best Supporting Actor – Stellan Skarsgård

Best Supporting Actress – Elle Fanning

Best Supporting Actress – Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

Best Director – Joachim Trier

Best Original Screenplay – Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

JAY KELLY (Netflix) – 4

Best Picture

Best Supporting Actor – Adam Sandler

Best Original Screenplay – Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer

Best Casting and Ensemble – Douglas Aibel, Nina Gold

BUGONIA (Focus Features) – 3

Best Picture

Best Actress – Emma Stone

Best Adapted Screenplay – Will Tracy

THE SECRET AGENT (Neon) – 2

Best Actor – Wagner Moura

Best Foreign Language Film

BLUE MOON (Sony Pictures Classics) – 1

Best Actor – Ethan Hawke

IF I HAD LEGS I’D KICK YOU (A24) – 1

Best Actress – Rose Byrne

IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Neon) – 1

Best Foreign Language Film

The complete rundown of nominations for the CCA is linked here.

AMERICAN FILM INSTUTUTE TOP TEN FILMS (PLUS)

From the American Film Institute's Top Ten list plus one more superlative (TFF #52 films in Bold):

AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH

BUGONIA

FRANKENSTEIN

HAMNET

JAY KELLY

MARTY SUPREME

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

SINNERS

TRAIN DREAMS

WICKED: FOR GOOD

AFI SPECIAL AWARD

IT WAS JUST AN ACCCIDENT

Here's the complete announcement from the AFI.

LA GRAZIA TRAILER 

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MTFB Oscar Update: First Predix for the Final Five Feature Categories . The Deluge Begins: New York Film Critics Circle, Gotham Awards, National Board of Review

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: FIRST PREDIX FOR FINAL FIVE FEATURE CATEGORIES

Today we add final five feature categories with initial predictions for Production Design, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Sound and Visual Effects.  All TFF #52 films are in Bold.    Here they are:

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein

2) Hamnet

3) Wicked: For Good

4) Sinners

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash

Others: Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another and The Phoenician Scheme.

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked: For Good

2) Frankenstein

3) Sinners

4) Hamnet

5) Kiss of the Spiderwoman

Others: One Battle After Another, Hedda and Marty Supreme.

MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Frankenstein

2) Wicked: For Good

3) The Smashing Machine

4) Sinners

5) Weapons

Others: 28 Years Later, Bugonia and One Battle After Another.

SOUND DESIGN

1) F1

2) Sinners

3) Wicked: for Good

4) One Battle After Another

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash

Others: Frankenstein, Sinners, Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere..

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash

2) F1

3) Wicked: For Good

4) Superman

5) Frankenstein

Others: Sinners, Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning and The Fantastic Four.

Sooo...at this point, if the nominations were announced tomorrow, MTFB is currently predicting the following :

Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design and Costumes.

Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Two in Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor Original Screenplay, and International Feature.

Frankenstein (7): Best Picture, Cinematography, Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and International Feature.

Jay Kelly (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.

Bugonia (2): Best Actress and Adapted Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (2): Best Actor and International Feature.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor.

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

and from TFF #51: Apocalypse in the Tropics: Best Documentary.

That's 10 TFF films nominated and a total of  40 nominations.

THE DELUGE BEGINS

Pre-nomination Oscar precursors bean to weigh in with force the past few days.  TFF films were faring moderately well.

New York Film Critics Circle: TFF films awarded were:

Best Direction: Jafar Pahani/It Was Just an Accident.

Best International Film: The Secret Agent.

Best actress: Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

Best Actor: Walter Moura/The Secret Agent.

The Gotham Awards and TFF films:

Best Direction: Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident

Best International Feature: It Was Just an Accident.

Best Original Screenplay: It Was Just an Accident.

Pillion: Best Adapted Screenplay.

National Board of Review:

Best Actress: Rose Byrne/If I had Legs I'd Kick You.

Best Supporting Actress: Inga Idsbotter Lileaas/Sentimental Value.

Best International Film: It Was Just an Accident.

Best Documentary: Cover-Up.

 From NBR's Top Films list: Frankenstein, Jay Kelly.

From NBR's Top Five International Films: The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value.

From NBR's Top Ten Independent Films: If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, The Mastermind, Urchin.

The complete NBR list is here.

Finally, The Golden Globe nominations will be announced on Monday.  I'll have that then.

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MTFB Oscar Update: First Predix for Four Categories / Cover-Up Trailer / Visitations: Buckley, Mescal, White and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: FIRST PREDIX FOR FOUR CATEGORIES

Today we add four more categories with initial predictions for Cinematography, Editing, Score and Song.  All TFF #52 films are in Bold.    Here they are:

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Hamnet

2) One Battle after Another

3) Sinners

4) Frankenstein

5) Train Dreams

Others: F1, One Battle After Another and Wicked: For Good.

BEST EDITING

1) One Battle After Another

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) F1

5) Marty Supreme

Others: Sentimental Value, Avatar: Fire and Ash and The House of Dynamite.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners

2) One Battle After Another

3) Hamnet

4) Frankenstein

5) Marty Supreme

Others: Jay Kelly, Bugonia and Hedda.

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K Pop Demon Hunters

2) I Lied to You/Sinners

3) Dear Me/Diane Warren: Relentless

4) The Girl in the Bubble/Wicked: For Good

5) Last Time (I Seen the Sun)/Sinners

Others: No Place Like Here/Wicked: For Good, Drive/F1 and Clothed by the Sun/The Last Testament of Ann Lee.

TRAILER: COVER-UP

From YouTube:

VISITATIONS: BUCKLEY, MESCAL, WHITE AND MORE

Jesse Buckley and Paul Mescal for Hamnet from Letterboxd via YouTube.

Writer Maggie O'Farrell for Hamnet from Awards Watch.

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value from Pop Culture Confidential.

Director Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from Pop Culture Confidential.

Jeremy Allen White for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere for The Hollywood Reporter's Awards Chatter.

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Quick Post for Thanksgiving Day: MTFB First Oscar Nomination Predictions for Four Categories

QUICK POST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY: MTFB FIRST OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS FOR FOUR CATEGORIES

Welcome to MTFB  and Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.  Today we have a short post due to the holiday.  But and important post it is as I begin to expand the breadth of MTFB's Oscar predictions.  Todo so I'm adding first predictions for four categories including the newly added category of Best Casting.  Additionally, we'll take a first shot at Best International Film, Best Documentary and Best Animated Film.  As always TFF #52 (and #51) are indicated in Bold.  Here we go!

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

1) Sentimental Value (Norway)

2) It Was Just an Accident (France)

3) The Secret Agent (Brazil)

4) No Other Choice (South Korea)

5) The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Others: The President's Cake (Iraq), Sirat (Spain) and Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan).

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor

2) 2000 Meters to Andriivka

3) Apocalypse in the Tropics (TFF #51)

4) The Alabama Solution

5) Cover-Up

Others: Orwell: 2+2=5, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk and The Librarians.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters

2) Arco

3) Zootopia 2

4) Elio

5) In Your Dreams

Others: Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, The Magnificent Life, Scarlet.

BEST CASTING

1) One Battle After Another

2) Sinners

3) Marty Supreme

4) Wicked: For Good

5) Hamnet

Others: Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man and Train Dreams.

MTFB returns Monday with first predictions in four other categories.

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MTFB Oscar take: Supporting Acting and Screenplays / Cover-up Trailer and Interview / 1.5 Mill

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING SUPPORTING ACTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Before we head into the predictions for Oscar categories that haven't appeared in MTFB thus far this season; here are the updated predictions for the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories.  TFF #52 films and performers are in Bold.  A film's previous ranking is to the right of the title in parentheses.

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)

2) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

3) Amy Madigan/Weapons (4)

4) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (3)

5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Odessa A'Zion/Marty Supreme.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)

4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)

5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)

Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Jay Kelly (4)

5) It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: Is This Thing On?, The Secret Agent and Weapons.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Hamnet (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Bugonia (4)

4) Train Dreams (5

5) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)

Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choice and Wicked: For Good.

COVER-UP TRAILER AND INTERVIEW

Here's the official trailer for Laura Poitras' documentary about reporter Seymour Hersh.  from Netflix via YouTube:

Additionally, an interview from Variety with Poitras and co-director and Mark Obenhaus.

That is linked here.

1.5 MILL

I have usually been pretty diligent about noticing viewership milestones but in the craziness of the last three months I overlooked that MTFB had passed a fairly significant one.  according to the view tracker MTFB passed One and a half million views somewhere around Halloween.

As of this morning I have posted 2401 times.  2402 if you count this one.  That means an average of 634 views per post.  

The most viewed post is from Jan. 4, 2018.  It's about Film Guilds and the Oscar season and an interview from Variety with Saoirse Ronan and Greta Gerwig on Lady Bird. Over 2,750 views.

As always, thanks to all of you who follow my obsession.

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MTFB Oscar Predictions #3: Best Pic, Direction, Lead Acting / European Film Awards Nominations and TFF / Visitations: Zhao, Baumbach, Linklater and Hawke

MTFB OSCAR PREDICTIONS #3: BEST PIC, DIRECTION, LEAD ACTING

MTFB begins its expansion of Oscar nomination predictions today by updating four categories.  I'll update the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories on Monday and a week from today start to provide predictions in the other 13 feature film categories.

or today and Monday you can see the last predicted position of each film to the right of the title in parentheses.  TFF #52 films/performers are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Wicked: For Good (6)

7) Frankenstein (9)

8) It Was Just an Accident (7)

9) Jay Kelly (8)

10) Train Dreams (NR)

Others: Bugonia, Avatar: Fire and Ice, F1.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)

5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (5)

Others: Chase Infiniti/OBAA, Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue, Sidney and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (4)

Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

EUROPEAN FILM AWARD NOMINATIONS AND TFF

Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value led the first wave of European Film Awards nominations announced last Tuesday.  Here are the nominations for TFF films:

Sentimental Value: Best European Film, Director, Actress (Reinsve), Actor (Sarsgard), Screenwriter.

It Was Just an Accident: Best European Film, Director, Screenwriter.

La Grazia: Best European Actor (Servillo) and Screenwriter.

Bugonia: Best European Director.  

And from TFF #51: Riefenstahl: Best European Film and Documentary.

The complete rundown of EFA nominations is linked here.

VISITATIONS: ZHAO, BAUMBACH, LINKLATER AND HAWKE

Chloe Zhao on Hamnet (and more) from Vanity Fair.

Noah Baumbach on Jay Kelly from Film Comment.

Noah Baumbach and Ethan Hawke on Blue Moon from Deadline.

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MTFB Oscar Take: Where We're At / Looks at Jay Kelly

 MTFB OSCAR TAKE: WHERE WE'RE AT

I'm through the second wave of predictions for the 2026 Oscars and the eight " Above the Line" categories.  I'll start expanding the predictions with Thursday's post to eventually include all 24 categories (up from 23 as The Academy has added Best Casting as a new Oscar category for this year).

But before I go into the expanded set of predictions, here's a reminder of where MTFB has nominees predicted currently.  These predictions were posted between Nov. 3rd and Nov. 13th. TFF #52 films/performers are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Wicked: For Good (9)

7) It Was Just an Accident (8)

8) Jay Kelly (6)

9) Frankenstein (NR)

10) Bugonia (NR)

Others: Train Dreams, Avatar: Fire and Ice, The Secret Agent and A House of Dynamite.

Comment: Big moves up for Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Dropping for Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite.  

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (NR)

Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue, Sidney Sweeney/Christy and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (2)

2) Leonardo Di Caprio/OBAA (1)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke (NR)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (4)

4) Amy Madigan/Weapons (3)

5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Hailee Steinfeld/Sinners.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)

4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)

5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)

Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Jay Kelly (4)

5) It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: A House of Dynamite, Weapon and Blue Moon.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Hamnet (2)

2) One Battle After Another (1)

3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Train Dreams (5)

Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choice and Wicked: For Good.

COMMENT: Sentimental Value is predicted to earn seven nominations in these eight categories to lead the way.  Here's the breakdown of the 10 films MTFB has with possible Oscar nominations in the Big Eight categories:

Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Supporting Actress (Ibsdotter Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Original Screenplay.

Hamnet (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay.

Jay Kelly (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Sandler), Original Screenplay.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

It Was Just an Accident (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (1): Best Actor (Moura).

Blue Moon (1): Best Actor (Hawke).

Other "possible" nominations:

Frankenstein: Best Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay.

Jay Kelly: Best Direction, Actor (Clooney).

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere: Best Actor (White), Supporting Actor (Strong).

The Secret Agent: Best Picture.

If I Had Legs I's Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Blue Moon: Best Original Screenplay.

Total MTFB predicted nominations from these eight categories for Telluride films: 22

Other "possible" nominations: 10.

LOOKS AT JAY KELLY

With its release coming in less than a month (Dec. 5th),  the P.R. is ramping up for Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly starring George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern.  Here's a taste of some of the promo that's in the air for the film.

Behind the Scenes with Clooney, Sandler and Baumbach from Netflix via YouTube.

Laura Dern and Adam Sandler with Awards Watch via YouTube.

 

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MTFB Oscar Predictions: Screenplays #2 / Critic's Choice Awards and Documentaries

 MTFB OSCAR PREDICTIONS: SCREENPLAYS #2

Today I am concluding my second wave of Oscar predictions for this year with the focus on the Screenplay categories.  All contenders from TFF #52 films are listed in Bold.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Jay Kelly (4)

5) It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: A House of Dynamite, Weapon and Blue Moon.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Hamnet (2)

2) One Battle After Another (1)

3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Train Dreams (5)

Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choice and Wicked: For Good.

CRITIC'S CHOICE AWARDS AND DOCUMENTARIES

The Critic's Choice Awards recognized Ken Burns The American Revolution as Best Historical Documentary of the year.  The film tied with Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time for the honor.  Burns was also named winner of the Critic's Choice Impact Award.

Burns also serves as a member of the TFF Board of Governors.

The American Revolution screened as a part of the 52nd Telluride Film Festival on Friday, Aug. 29th at 10:00am (MDT) at the Sheridan Opera House.

The Perfect Neighbor was named the Best Documentary Feature as well as four other awards to lead the event.

The complete list of all doc winners for The Critic's Choice awards can be found here.

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MTFB Oscar Take Round Two: Supporting Acting / Hamnet Wins Another Audience Award

 MTFB OSCAR TAKE ROUND TWO: SUPPORTING ACTING

Sorry that I'm late this morning.  It was a long weekend.

MTFB continues its up date of  Oscar predictions with the Supporting Acting Categories.  These predictions will include the actors current ranking as well as its position from two weeks back.  TFF #52 films are in Bold.

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (4)

4) Amy Madigan/Weapons (3)

5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Hailee Steinfeld/Sinners.

Comment: This category is very stable at the moment.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)

4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)

5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)

Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

Comment: Also a very stable category with the exception of Jacob Elordi jumping into the #6 spot.

HAMNET WINS ANOTHER AUDIENCE AWARD

Chloe Zhao's Hamnet won the Toronto Film Festival Audience Award in September and last week added that same accolade from the BFI London Film Festival.  Additionally the film tied with Rental Family for the Audience Award the Middleburg Film Fest.

Last week Gold Derby reported that Hamnet had slipped by One Battle After Another to become (by the slimmest of margins) their predicted favorite to win Best Picture.  As of this morning that was still holding true.

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MTFB Oscar Predictions Round Two: Lead Acting/ Gold Derby Has Hamnet in Front / TFF #52 and the British Independent Awards

 MTFB OSCAR PREDICITONS ROUND TWO: LEAD ACTING

MTFB continues its up date of  Oscar predictions with the Lead acting Categories.  These predictions will include the actors current ranking as well as its position from two weeks back.  TFF #52 films are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (NR)

Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue, Sidney Sweeney/Christy and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (2)

2) Leonardo Di Caprio/OBAA (1)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke (NR)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

Comment:  At this early point there would be five TFF #52 performances nominated for Best Lead: Buckley, Reinsve, Stone, Moura and Hawke.  Big movers up are Seyfried and Hawke.  Also note Chalamet's rise to number one among the men over DiCaprio.

Next post: Supporting Actors.

GOLD DERBY HAS HAMNET IN FRONT

In a very interesting twist Gold Derby now has Chloe Zhao's Hamnet fractionally ahead of Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another.  The edition posted yesterday revealed that.  You can see that post linked here.

Additionally Gold Derby has five TFF #52 in the predicted five for Best Picture: Hamnet, Sentimental Value, It was Just an Accident, Frankenstein and Bugonia.  Five BP nominations for films that played Telluride in a single year would establish a new record TFF.

TFF #52 AND THE BRITISH INDEPENDENT FILM AWARDS

Five TFF #52 films were nominated for British Independent Film Awards on Monday.  Henry Lighton's Pillion had the most nominations of any Telluride film with 10.  Harris Dickinson's Urchin had six.  Here's the complete breakdown:

Pillion (10): Best British Independent Film, Best Direction (Lighton), Screenplay (Lighton), Lead Performance (Melling), Supporting Performance (Skarsgard), Debut Director (Lighton), Debut Screenplay (Lighton), Costuming, Editing and Make-up/Hair.

Urchin (6): Best British Independent Film, Best Lead Performance (Millane), Debut Director (Dickinson), Breakthrough Producer (Pearch). Casting, Music Supervision.

Sentimental Value (1): Best International Independent Film.

It Was Just an Accident (1): Best International Independent Film.

H Is for Hawk (1): Best Cinematography.

The complete list of nominees can be found here on the BIFA website.

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Oscar Predictions Round Two: Best Picture and Direction / Visitations: Del Toro, Isaacs, Stone, Plemons

OSCAR PREDICTIONS ROUND TWO: BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION

Two weeks ago MTFB began Oscar predictions for 2026 with, of course, an emphasis on TFF #52 contenders.  Today we go back and update the predictions for Best Picture and Direction.  These predictions will include the films current ranking as well as its position from two weeks back.  TFF #52 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Wicked: For Good (9)

7) It Was Just an Accident (8)

8) Jay Kelly (6)

9) Frankenstein (NR)

10) Bugonia (NR)

Others: Train Dreams, Avatar: Fire and Ice, The Secret Agent and A House of Dynamite.

Comment: Big moves up for Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Dropping for Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite.  

Should this list be the actual set of  nominees, TFF would break its record of four BP nominees in a single year with six.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.

VISITATIONS: DEL TORO, ISAAC, STONE, PLEMONS

Guillermo Del Toro and Oscar Isaac for Frankenstein from GQ and YouTube.

Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Yorgos Lanthimos and More for Bugonia from Nest Best Picture.

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MTFB Oscar Predictions: Screenplays / TFF #52 Has 24 Gotham Award Nominations / New Trailer for Sentimental Value / Visitations: Bugonia and Ballad of a Small Player

 MTFB OSCAR PREDICTIONS: SCREENPLAYS

Today I am concluding my first wave of Oscar predictions for this year with the focus on the Screenplay categories.  All contenders from TFF #52 films are listed in Bold.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners

2) Sentimental Value

3) Marty Supreme

4) Jay Kelly

5) It Was Just an Accident

Others: A House of Dynamite, The Secret Agent and Weapons.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

4) Bugonia

5) Train Dreams

Others: No Other Choice, Frankenstein and Song Sung Blue.

Currently, if all of MTFB's current predictions came true in the Big Eight categories, 10 TFF #52 films would receive 21 nominations with another 12 nominations possible.  Here's that breakdown by film:

Sentimental Value (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay.

Hamnet (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal) and Adapted Screenplay.

Jay Kelley (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Sandler) and Original Screenplay.  Three other possibilities: Direction, Actor (Clooney), Supporting Actor (Crudup).

It Was Just an Accident (3): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (2): Best Picture, Best Actor (Moura).  Two other possibilities: Best Picture and Original Screenplay.

Bugonia (1): Adapted Screenplay.  Two other possibilities: Best Picture and Actor (Plemons)

Springsteen: Deliver me from Nowhere (1): Best Actor (White).  Two other possibilities: Best Picture and Supporting Actor (Strong).

Other films with Oscar possibilities:

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

Frankenstein: Adapted Screenplay.

I'll start the first round of updating predictions with next Monday's post.

TFF #52 HAS 24 GOTHAM AWARDS NOMINATIONS

Here's how Gotham Awards nominations went for TFF #52 films.  The big surprise was that If I Had Legs I'd Kick You had the biggest footprint among all 13 TFF #52 films to get a nomination.  TFF #52 films had a combines 24 nominations:

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (4): Best Feature, Direction, Outstanding Lead Performance (Byrne), Original Screenplay.

It was Just an Accident (3): Best International Feature, Direction, Original Screenplay.

Hamnet (2): Best Feature, Outstanding Lead Performance (Buckley).

Sentimental Value (2): Outstanding Supporting Performance (Lilleaas), Outstanding Supporting Performance (Skarsgard).

The Mastermind (2): Best Direction, Outstanding Lead Performance (O'Connor).

Blue Moon (2): Outstanding Lead Performance (Hawke), Outstanding Supporting Performance (Scott).

The Secret Agent (2): Outstanding Lead Performance (Moura), Original Screenplay.

Pillion (2): Outstanding Supporting Performance (Skarsgard), Adapted Screenplay.

Bugonia (1): Best Feature

Nouvelle Vague (1): Best International Feature.

Frankenstein (1): Outstanding Supporting Performance (Elordi).

Jay Kelly (1): Outstanding Supporting Performance (Sandler).

Urchin (1): Breakthrough Direction.

NEW TRAILER FOR SENTIMENTAL VALUE

VISITATIONS: BUGONIA AND BALLAD OF A SMALL PLAYER

Bugonia: Writer Will Tracy on Bugonia from Awards Radar: 

https://awardsradar.com/2025/10/29/interview-writer-will-tracy-chats-about-working-with-yorgos-lanthimos-and-adapting-bugonia/

Battle of a Small Player:

Colin Farrell and Fila Chen for Ballad of a Small Player from Next Best Picture:

YouTube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4f4b0HAG9Q&t=2s

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