MTFB Oscar Update: Winners Predictions-Cinematography and More / Bonus Update: Best Picture / SAG on Sunday / Trailer and Release for Thank You Very Much / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: CINEMATOGRAPHY AND MORE

Oscar voting is CLOSED!  The ballot deadline was Tuesday evening.  Now we wait...  

I'm updating five categories today that were last posted on Feb. 6th.  As always TFF #51 films are Bold and their previous position on the chart is to the right in parentheses.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Nosferatu (3)

3) Dune Part Two (2)

4) Emilia Perez (5)

5) Maria (4)

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave (1)

2) Anora (2)

3) The Brutalist (3)

4) Wicked (5)

5) Emilia Perez (4)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) The Brutalist (2)

3) Nosferatu (5)

4) Dune Part Two (3)

5) Conclave (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Wild Robot (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Wicked (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez (1)

2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight (2)

3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez (3)

4) Never Too Late/Never Too Late (5)

5) Like a Bird/Sing Sing (4)

 Comment:  Currently I have TFF #51 films winning two of these five Oscars with Conclave taking Editing (though if Anora wins here that'll keep Editing in the TFF #51 family) and Emilia Perez taking Original Song.  The other "Best Chance" of a pickup is Conclave in Original Score.  At the moment I have Conclave winning Adapted Screenplay and Editing.  If it does upset The Brutalist for Score then maybe an upset is brewing in favor of Conclave over Anora for Best Picture.  

BONUS UPDATE: BEST PICTURE

I'm not actually due for an update of the Best Picture race until the 27th but thought I'd give it a quick looksee.

1) Anora (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Brutalist (4)

4) A Complete Unknown (3)

5) Wicked (5)

6) Emilia Perez (6)

7) The Substance (7)

8) I'm Still Here (8)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (10)

Comment: The movement of note is bit of a boost for The Brutalist and a bit of a lag for A Complete Unknown.  Conclave seems best poised to upset Anora's strong hold on the top prize.  Did it's four BAFTA wins indicate something?  

SAG ON SUNDAY

The Screen Actors Guild (SAG-Aftra) happen Sunday night at 8:00pm Eastern/5:00pm Pacific.  They're on Netflix.  There are six categories for film.  Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Cast and Stunt Cast.  All but Stunt Cast, perhaps, shine light on The Oscars.

Best Actress:  If Mikey Madison wins...that's another indicator that Anora has the BP Oscar sewn up.  If Demi Moore, once regarded as the frontrunner, grabs this trophy then Best Actress could be a nail-biter on Oscar night.

Best Actor:  Adrien Brody is looking strong and he needs a win to boost The Brutalist's chance at Best Picture.  Timothee Chalamet could win and that's essential for A Complete Unknown to have any shot at Best Picture.  A Ralph Fiennes win, while unlikely but not outside the realm of possibility, would be huge indicator that Conclave is upsetting Anora.

Best Supporting Actress: Despite all the controversy surrounding Emilia Perez, Zoe Saldana still looks strong for SAG and Oscar.  A Monica Barbaro upset combined with a Chalamet win for Actor might mean A Complete Unknown has slipped into the Best Picture top spot. 

Best Supporting Actor: At this point I think everyone has determined that Kieran Culkin (like Saldana) has this in the bag.  As with Chalamet and Barbaro, an Edward Norton win aids A Complete Unknown.

Best Cast: If any film other than Anora wins this there are real chances that the Oscar is going somewhere else.  It wouldn't doom Anora which has had such incredible precursor success that it remains the big favorite for Oscar night.  Wins for either Conclave or A Complete Unknown would make Oscar night very intriguing.

SAG Guesses: Madison, Brody, Saldana, Culkin, Anora.  Four of the five categories go to TFF #51 films.  Tune into Netflix on Sunday to find out.

The full list of SAG nominees is linked here.

TRAILER AND RELEASE FOR THANK YOU VERY MUCH

A number of outlets reported this week that Alex Braverman's Andy Kaufman documentary that screened as a part of TFF #50 has a release date of Marc. 28th.  Drafthouse also released a trailer for the doc.  Here that is via YouTube:

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Director Adam Eliot for Memoir of a Snail from The Film Stage.

Composer Volker Bertelmann for Conclave from The Contending.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Oscar Winners Predictions: Screenplays and More / BAFTA and TFF #51 / Writers' Guild and TFF #51

 MTFB OSCAR WINNERS PREDICTIONS: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

We're under two weeks to Oscar night.  Today I am updating predictions for both screenplay categories as well as International , Animated and Documentary features.  These categories were first predicted two weeks back on Feb. 3rd.  As always, TFF films are Bold.  A film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Nickel Boys (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Sing Sing (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) The Substance (3)

3) A Real Pain (4)

4) The Brutalist (2)

5) September 5 (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) I'm Still Here (1)

2) Emilia Perez (3)

3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig (2)

4) Flow  (4)

5) The Girl with the Needle (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot (1)

2) Flow (2)

3) Inside Out 2 (3)

4) Memoir of a Snail (5)

5) Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (4)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) No Other Land (1)

2) Porcelain War (4)

3) Black Box Diaries (3)

4) Sugarcane (2)

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (5)

Comments:  Despite the backlash, Emilia Perez still looks like it has a real shot at the International Feature Oscar.  I still have it behind I'm Still Here but it feels close.  Additionally, Porcelain War has surged in the Documentary category.  The biggest lock from these categories seems to be Conclave in Adapted Screenplay.

Should these predictions prove out, TFF #51 films would win three of the five categories.

BAFTA AND TFF #51

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their winners on Sunday.  each with Conclave leading the way with four wins including Best Film. Four TFF #51 films landed a least two BAFTAs including Conclave with four wins including Best Film.

Here's the rundown of  TFF #51 films' BAFTA wins:

Conclave: Best Film, Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay and Editing.  

Anora: Best Actress (Madison) and Casting.

Emilia Perez: Best Film Not in the English Language and Best Supporting Actress (Saldana).

A Real Pain: Best Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.

Among non-TFF films The Brutalist had four wins as well for Best Direction, Actor (Brody), Cinematography and Score.

The Conclave win for Best Film gives it a little life for Oscar night.  Wins for Saldana and Culkin cement their status for Supporting Oscars and all of the hubbub regarding Emilia Perez didn't seem to slow it down in London.

TFF #51 films were nominated for a total of  45 awards.

WRITERS' GUILD AND TFF #51

Two TFF #51 films picked up Writers' Guild of America awards on Saturday night.  Sean Baker won for Anora as Best Original Screenplay while RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes shared the trophy for Nickel Boys as Best Adapted Screenplay.

These results are likely indicative of an Anora Oscar win in two weeks.  The Nickel Boys win is likely less predictive as Conclave was ineligible under WGA rules.  Most of the Oscar prediction community thinks Conclave is the favorite.  Currently 29 out of the 34 Gold Derby experts are predicting Conclave to pick up the Oscar win.

Here is the complete list of winners from the WGA.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Winners Predicitons: Above the Line / Looking Forward to Cannes / Trailer for The Friend / Interviews and Profiles: The Seed of the Sacred Fig and Nickel Boys

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: ABOVE THE LINE

The difference two weeks can make.  Since the last posting of theses six "Above the Line" categories, the Karla Sofia Gascon implosion has done major damage to the Oscar chances of Emilia Perez and the 1-2-3 blitz from last weekend of Anora winning Best Picture from the Critics' Choice as well as the Producers' Guild and the directing trophy from the Directors' Guild has re-shaped the Oscar map.  Here's where we are as of this morning.  As always TTFF films are Bold and a film/performer's position from the last set of predictions is indicated in parentheses to the right.

BEST PICTURE

1) Anora (4)

2) Conclave (3)

3) A Complete Unknown (5)

4) The Brutalist (2)

5) Wicked (6)

6) Emilia Perez (1)

7) The Substance (7)

8) I'm Still Here (10)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (8)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Sean Baker/Anora (3)

2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (1)

3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (4)

4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (5)

5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (2)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)

2) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (3)

3) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (5)

5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (4)

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (2)

2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (1)

3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (3)

4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing (4)

5) Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked (2)

3) Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown (4)

4) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (3)

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain (1)

2) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Yura Borisov/Anora (4)

4) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist (3)

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice (5)

Comment: As of today's post, MTFB is predicting TFF #51 films to win of these six categories: Picture, Direction and both Supporting Acting awards.

Anora's ascendance is clear as is the Emilia Perez debacle.  I was actually surprised that Emilia Perez only dropped to #6 in Best Picture and the Zoe Saldana remains viable for a Best Supporting Actress film for the film.

Oscar voting is open and we wait to hear from the BAFTAs on Sunday.

LOOKING FORWARD TO CANNES

Jordan Ruimy of World of Reel has his annual speculation list up and running for films that might be selected for Cannes.  As I always like to do at this time of year, I checked it put to see what titles jumped out as possible considerations for TFF #52.  From his lengthy list, here are some films that could screen at Cannes and then make the trip to southwestern Colorado (the order is as they appear in Ruimy's piece):

Die, My Love (Ramsay)

The Mastermind/Reichardt

The Way of the Wind (Malick)

Young Mother (Dardennes)

Orphan (Nemes)

The Love That Remains (Palmason)

The Magnificent Life of Sylvain Pagnol (Chomet)

Bugonia (Lanthimos)

In the Hands of Dante (Schnabel)

Ruimy's complete list is here.

TRAILER FOR THE FRIEND

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Behind the Scenes of The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys from The Hollywood Reporter.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Predicting the Winners Part Four / Critics Choice and TFF / Director's Guild and Producer's Guild

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING THE WINNERS PART FOUR

Here's the last set of initial predictions for what will win at the Oscar ceremony on March 2nd.  I'll have fresh predictions for Best Picture, Direction and the Acting categories on Thursday.  As always, TFF films are in Bold.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked

2) Conclave

3) Nosferatu

4) A Complete Unknown

5) Gladiator II

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance

2) Wicked

3) Emilia Perez

4) A Different Man

5) Nosferatu  

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) A Complete Unknown

2) Wicked

3) Dune Part Two

4) Emilia Perez

5) The Wild Robot

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

3) Wicked

4) Better Man

5) Alien: Romulus

Comment: Among these four categories, TFF's best shot at a win looks to be Conclave in costumes and even that seems fairly unlikely.  Maybe the tightest category of any is Sound.  A Complete Unknown, Wicked and Dune Part Two seem to be in dead heat.  It'll be interesting to see if that changes over the next couple of weeks when we re-visit these categories.

CRITICS CHOICE AND TFF

The Critics Choice awards were presented on Friday.  TFF #51 films won seven awards total including a Best Picture win for Sean Baker's Anora.

Other TFF winners included:

Conclave: Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Acting Ensemble.

A Real Pain: Best Comedy (tied with Deadpool & Wolverine), and Supporting Actor (Kieran Culkin).

Emilia Perez: Best Foreign Language Film and Best Song (El Mal).

DIRECTORS' GUILD AND PRODUCERS' GUILD

Probably the most important Guild awards named their "Best of" 2024 on Saturday and both organizations awarded the same film.  Sean Baker won the DGA Best Director for a Feature Film award for Anora.  The PGA also awarded Anora as Best Picture.  The PGA is very interesting as it uses a preferential ballot just like the Academy does for Best Picture.

Also winning the DGA Award for Best First Time Feature was RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys, which, of course, was also a TFF #51 film.

With the three wins over the weekend, DGA, PGA and Critic's Choice, Anora will surely come raring back to the top of the list of predictions for Best Picture (My updated Best Picture predictions will be posted on Thursday).  It seems difficult to concoct plausible scenario for any other picture at this point.  

Anora's stunning set of wins this past weekend also suggests that Mikey Madison is firmly in a real tussle for Best Actress with Demi Moore. Moore had surged over the past few weeks.

As a matter of fact, Anora could be in line to win five of the six Oscars it's nominated for.  I could see it taking Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay and even Editing.  The exception likely being in Supporting Actor where Kieran Culkin seems almost unbeatable and if anyone has any shot at knocking him off the Oscar stage it's probably Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown rather than Anora's Yura Borisov.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Predicting Oscar Winners: Cinematography and More / Future TFF Selection? / Interviews and Profiles: Conclave

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING OSCAR WINNERS: CINEMATOGRAPHY AND MORE

As the Emilia Perez series of provocations and scandals seems to be winding down in intensity, we're starting to see some actual effects regarding what could happen on Oscar night.  Here are the first predictions for winners in Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score and Song.  As usual, TFF films are in Bold.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist

2) Dune: Part Two

3) Nosferatu

4) Maria

5) Emilia Perez

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave

2) Anora

3) The Brutalist

4) Emilia Perez

5) Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked

2) The Brutalist

3) Dune: Part Two

4) Conclave

5) Nosferatu

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist

2) Conclave

3) The Wild Robot

4) Emilia Perez

5) Wicked

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez

2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight

3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez

4) Like A Bird/Sing Sing

5) Never Too Late/Never Too Late

Comments:  Tightest category among these five is Editing where Conclave is barely in front of Anora and The Brutalist is close too.  If Conclave wins this and Adapted Screenplay...well...could be a good night in the end for Conclave.

The Emilia Perez blowback does not seem to have been particularly bad in Best Song.  We'll see if that's still true two weeks from now when we re-visit these five categories.  Diane Warren's shot to finally win an Oscar for songwriting has a real possibility of happening.

Speaking of low blowback for Emilia Perez in Best Song, you have to wonder if Zoe Saldana might still have a chance for Best Supporting Actress.  We'll look at that category again next week.

FUTURE TFF SELECTION?

Of note yesterday was news from both Deadline and The Film Stage that TFF regular and member of TFF's Council of Advisors Werner Herzog will be soon filming a new feature film.  That by itself would be enough to merit it going on a future TFF watch list.  But the reporting revealed that the film will star Rooney Mara and Kate Mara.

Rooney is past TFF tribute recipient.  She was honored in 2015.  Todd Haynes Carol screened at TFF as a part of that tribute.  I have been told that Rooney loves the fest and has returned since the 2015 honor.

She attended in 2016 with Una and again in  2022 with Women Talking.

The new film is reportedly titled Bucking Fastard and is described by The Film Stage as: 

"...based on the true story of inseparable twin sisters Joan and Jean, drawing from the lives of Freda and Greta Chaplin, who became sexually infatuated with their next-door neighbor and eventually received a restraining order. The title of the film, which begins production this spring in Ireland and Slovenia, is based on a simultaneous verbal slip the twins made in court."

The Film Stage article (Linked above) also digs into Herzog's most recent book, Every Man for Himself and God Against All: A Memoir, and provides considerable detail about the two sisters.

INETRVIEWS AND PROFILES

Conclave producers Ross and Howell for the film from Variety.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Predicting Oscar Winners: Screenplays and More / The Emilia Perez Saga / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING OSCAR WINNERS: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

MTFB continues today with trying to predict the Oscar winners for 2025.    Five more categories are added today.  As always TFF films are in Bold.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave

2) A Complete Unknown

3) Nickel Boys

4) Emilia Perez

5) Sing Sing

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora

2) The Brutalist

3) The Substance

4) A Real Pain

5) September 5

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) I'm Still Here

2) The Seed of the Sacred fig

3) Emilia Perez

4) Flow

5) The Girl with the Needle

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot

2) Flow

3) Inside Out 2

4) Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl

5) Memoir of a Snail

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) No Other Land

2) Sugarcane

3) Black Box Diaries

4) Porcelain War

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

THE EMILIA PEREZ SAGA

Hoo boy...Emilia Perez  13 Oscar nominations...most of any film this year.  Tied for second most all time.  And after this last week...likely not going to win a single one.  Initially signaling trouble was big time negative reactions from a number of communities reflected in the film as well as criticism that the film, set in Mexico, had almost no input or participation from Mexican natives/

Then came the reveal of a number of posts from the movie's lead Karla Sofia Gascon...that were incendiary to say the least.

Last Thursday I had it nominally winning Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress.  Now, based on nominations and such, had this past week not happened, it could have also won: International Feature and Original Song as well.  Now, I suspect, the film is fried.  13 nominations and no wins anywhere.

Emilia Perez was always going to be a hard sell for Best Picture but in an year that has been fractured in terms of  Oscar predicting, the film with 13 nominations seemed like the best bet.  Now???It's the Wild West in Oscarland.

In the Best Picture race, Emilia Perez's woes benefit Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave and A Complete Unknown.  I won't predict the Best Picture again officially until Feb. 13th.  That said, I feel that Conclave and  A Complete Unknown have the best chance to gain from what's been going on.

In Emilia's other three categories that it could have won...

Best Supporting Actress: If there is one category that might survive the blowback, this is it.  Zoe Saldana has been so far out front for so long maybe she escapes with the trophy.  Otherwise, congrats Ariana Grande.

Best International Film: Congrats to  I'm Still Here.  We already had figured out that The Academy likes this film a lot with it also being nominated for Best Picture and Best Actress (where Fernanda Torres could actually win).

Best Song:  Does Diane Warren actually win on her 16th nomination?  Maybe so.  Assuming both El Mal and Mi Camino are sunk you're left with her song from The Six Triple Eight, Elton John's tune and the song from Sing Sing.

Ultimately, as this space is about Telluride films, this mess likely decreases TFF film's overall success on Oscar night.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys from Pop Culture Confidential.

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MTFB Oscar Update: First Winners Predictions: Picture, Directing and Acting / International Cinephile Society and TFF / Interviews and Profiles: Eisenberg and Ross

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: FIRST WINNERS PREDICTIONS: PICTURE, DIRECTING AND ACTING

We're four weeks and a couple of days away from Oscar Night.  Today MTFB is moving into the business of predicting who will actually win The Academy Award on March 2nd.  We start with six "above-the-line" categories: Picture, Direction, and all four Acting categories.  As always, TFF films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Emilia Perez

2) The Brutalist

3) Conclave

4) Anora

5) A Complete Unknown

6) Wicked

7) The Substance

8) Nickel Boys

9) Dune: Part Two

10) I'm Still Here

 BEST DIRECTION

1) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist

2) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez

3) Sean Baker/Anora

4) James Mangold/A CompleteUnknown

5) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance

BEST ACTRESS

1) Demi Moore/The Substance

2) Mikey Madison/Anora

3) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here

4) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez

5) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown

2) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist

3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave

4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing

5) Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked

3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave

4) Monca Barbaro/A Complete Unknown

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain 

2) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown

3) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist

4) Yura Borisov/Anora

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice

 

So, if I'm 100% accurate, TFF films win Oscars for Best Picture, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor.

On Monday I'll have first predictions for the Screenplays as well as International, Animated and Documentary Features.

INTERNATIONAL CINEPHILE SOCIETY AND TFF

The International Cinephile Society (ICS) announced its nominees for film excellence for 2024 on Sunday.  TFF films earned 33 nominations with Payal Kapadia's All We Imagine as Light leading the pack with nine.  Eight TFF #51 films were named as well as one TFF #50 film.  Here's the lowdown: 

All We Imagine as Light (9): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Kusruti), Supporting Actress (Kadam), Supporting Actress (Prabha), Ensemble, Original Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing.

Nickel Boys (7): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress (Ellis-Taylor), Supporting Actor (Wilson), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Score.

Anora (5): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Borisov), Breakthrough Performer (Madison), Ensemble and Original Screenplay.

Misericordia (4): Best Picture, Direction, Ensemble and Original Screenplay.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (2): Best Picture and Original Screenplay.

Conclave (2): Best Ensemble and Adapted Screenplay.

No Other Land (2): Best Documentary and Debut Film.

Memoir of a Snail (1): Best Animated Film.

Janet Planet (From TFF #50-1): Best Debut Film.

The full set of nominees is linked here.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain from The Hollywood Reporter's Awards Chatter.

RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys from Paste Magazine.

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Post Oscar Nominations Musings / I Had a Pretty Good Day / Satellite Awards and TFF / Correction

POST OSCAR NOMINATION MUSINGS

Now comes the time when our focus shifts from Oscar nominations to Oscar wins.  The Academy Awards ceremony is set for March 2nd.

I'll begin tracking the various categories over the next five weeks as I try to predict what films will win what categories.  What's fun is that there doesn't seem to be a frontrunner for Best Picture.  You could make a case for several of the ten films winning the Big Prize.  Emilia Perez with the most nominations, 13 in all, the most ever for an International film and just one nomination short of the all time record.  But not every film with 13-14 nominations wins Best Picture...Just ask the producers of La La Land.

Also making strong cases as candidates to win: The Brutalist, Conclave, Anora and A Complete Unknown.  Wicked still has a shot.  

My gut says that A Complete Unknown and Conclave have momentum right now.  I'll have the first set of "winner" predictions on Thursday.

We'll also get some insight as the various Guilds weigh in with their winners.  The directors and the Producers Guilds start the parade on Feb. 8th.

I HAD A PRETTY GOOD DAY 

Those that have been reading this space for some time and especially during this chunk of the year when MTFB focuses on the Oscar season probably have a good sense of the level of prediction success has been.  For those who don't, here are the prediction success rates for the past few years:

2024: 91 of 120-75.8%

2023: 93 of 120-77.5%

2022: 87 of 120-72.5%

2021: 87 of 118-73.7%

2020: 100 of 124-80.6%

2019: 95 of 122-77.9%

Overall during this period   of 724 for correct prediction rate of 76.4%.  This year I was a bit ahead of that with 97 correct predictions out of 120.  The correct rate?  80.8%. That raises the overall rate to 77%.

Additionally, in nine categories the film I had in the first alternate spot was nominated.

Categories where I got all the nominees: Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Animated Feature, Production Design and Makeup/Hair

My worst non-short category was Original Song where I got only three of the five.

In all but one category I had all the all of the nominees predicted as nominees or alternates.  The one category where that was not true was Best Picture where I didn't have I'm Still Here within a mile of being nominated.  I really thought that if the Academy chose a second International film (in addition to Emilia Perez) it would have been All That We Imagine as Light or The Seed of the Sacred Fig.  

Finally, as I am being immodest concerning my predix this year, had I been a Gold Derby Expert or Editor...I would have topped them all for accuracy.  Here's where they ended up:

Gold Derby Experts:

Gold Derby Editors:

I'll be waiting for my invitation to join Gold Derby's panel for next year.

SATELLITE AWARDS AND TFF

The International Press Academy's Satellite Awards winners were announced Saturday Night.  TFF films landed five wins:

Anora: Best Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)

A Real Pain: Original Screenplay

Nickel Boys: Adapted Screenplay

Emilia Perez: Original Score, Original Song (Mi Camino)

The Brutalist was named Best Picture (Drama).

The complete list of winners and nominees can be found here.

CORRECTION

I had a note from an anonymous reader last week that TFF #50 also had an Oscar nomination for Best Documentary Short. Incident did indeed screen at TFF #50.

That brings the totals for TFF films for this year's Academy Awards to 14 films with 41 nominations.

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Oscar Noms and TFF #51

OSCAR NOMS AND TFF #51

Good Morning...Oscar nominations are in.  My correct number of picks for each category is to the right of the category in parentheses.  TFF #51 films/performers in Bold.

BEST PICTURE (8/10)

Conclave

Emilia Perez

The Brutalist

Anora

A Complete Unknown

Wicked

Dune: Part Two

The Substance

Nickel Boys

I'm Still Here

BEST DIRECTION (4/5)

Brady Corbet/The Brutalist

Sean Baker/Anora

Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez

Coralie Fargeat/The Substance

James Mangold/ A Complete Unknown

BEST ACTRESS (5/5)

Demi Moore/The Substance

Mikey Madison/Anora

Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez

Cynthia Erivo/Wicked

Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here

BEST ACTOR (4/5)

Adrien Brody/The Brutalist

Ralph Fiennes/Conclave

Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo/Sing Sing

Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (4/5)

Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez

Ariana Grande/Wicked

Isabella Rossellini/Conclave

Felicity Jones/The Brutalist

Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (5/5)

Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain

Edward Norton/ A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce/The Brutalist

Yura/Borisov/Anora

Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (5/5)

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Nickel Boys

A Complete Unknown

Sing Sing

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (5/5)

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

The Substance

September 5

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE (4/5)

Emilia Perez

I'm Still Here

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

The Girl with the Needle

Flow

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE (5/5)

The Wild Robot

Flow

Inside Out 2

Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl

Memoir of a Snail

BEST DOCUMNETARY FEATURE (4/5)

No Other Land

Sugarcane

Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

Black Box Diaries

Porcelain Wars

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (4/5)

The Brutalist

Nosferatu

Dune: Part Two

Maria

Emilia Perez

BEST EDITING (4/5)

Conclave

Anora

Emilia Perez

The Brutalist

Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN (5/5)

Wicked

The Brutalist

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Conclave

BEST SCORE (4/5)

The Brutalist

Conclave

Emilia Perez

The Wild Robot

Wicked

BEST SONG (3/5)

El Mal/Emilia Perez

Mi Camino/Emilia Perez

The Journey/The Six Triple Eight

Like a Bird/Sing Sing

Never Too Late/Never Too Late

BEST COSTUMES (4/5)

Wicked

Nosferatu

Conclave

A Complete Unknown

Gladiator II

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR (5/5)

The Substance

Wicked

Nosferatu

Emilia Perez

A Different Man

BEST SOUND (4/5)

Dune: Part Two

Wicked

A Complete Unknown

Emilia Perez

The Wild Robot

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (4/5)

Dune: Part Two

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

Better Man

Alien:Romulus

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT (2/5)

The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Anuja

I Am Not a Robot

A Lien

The Last Ranger

BEST ANIMATED SHORT (3/5)

Wander to Wonder

Beautiful Men

Yuck!

In the Shadow of the Cypress

Magic Candies

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT (2/5)

I'm Ready Warden

Incident

Death by Numbers

The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Instruments of a Beating

Stuff:

13 TFF #51 films earn 40 nominations...that's a record.  Plus one from TFF #50 as Incident gets nominated for Best Documentary Short.

Emilia Perez (13)

Conclave (8)

Anora (6)

Two each for:

Nickel Boys

A Real Pain

The Apprentice

One each for:

September 5

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Memoir of a Snail

No Other Land

Maria

Better Man

Beautiful Men

***Emilia Perez leads all films with 13 nominations and sets a record for an International film.

***For the first time ever Telluride had at least one film nominated in every feature category.

***Biggest Stunner: I'm Still Here in Best Picture.

***MTFB goes 90/105 in feature categories-85.7%.  7/15 in Short subjects-46.7%.  97/120 overall-80.8%

More on Monday...have a super weekend!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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