Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
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-Sasha Stone, Awards Daily
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"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
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Here are updated nomination predictions for the Supporting Acting categories for the 97th Academy Awards. These categories were last predicted on Sept. 30th. An actor's previous rank appears to the right of their names in parentheses. TFF #51 actors/films are in Bold.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)
2) Danielle Deadwyler/The Piano Lesson (2)
3) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (-)
4) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (3)
5) Saoirse Ronan/Blitz (4)
Others: Selena Gomez/Emilia Perez, Aunjanue Ellis-Tayor/Nickel Boys, Lady Gaga/Joker: Folie a Deux.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain (1)
2) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist (5)
3) Denzel Washington/Gladiator II (2)
4) Stanley Tucci/Conclave (4)
5) Clarence Maclin/Sing Sing (3)
Others: John Magaro/September 5, Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice, Samuel L. Jackson/The Piano Lesson.
I'm updating the Lead Acting categories today and they look a whole lot like the initial predictions from Sept. 30th. An actor's previous position is indicated in (parentheses). TFF #51 films are in Bold.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Mikey Madison/Anora (1)
2) Angelina Jolie/Maria (2)
3) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (3)
4) Nicole Kidman/Babygirl (4)
5) Saoirse Ronan/The Outrun (5)
Others: Amy Adams/Nightbitch, Tilda Swinton/The Room Next Door, Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here.
BEST ACTOR
1) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (1)
2) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing (2)
3) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (3)
4) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (4)
5) Daniel Craig/Queer (5)
Others: Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice, Paul Mescal/Gladiator II, John David Washington/The Piano Lesson.
For the next few weeks I'll be posting updated Oscar Predictions for the Big Eight categories. I'll be updating these categories as pairs so that all eight are updated over a two week period. Soon I'll begin to add in all the other feature categories. Today's predix will include Best Picture and Best Direction. A film's previous position is indicated in (parentheses). TFF #51 films are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) Emilia Perez (2)
2) Anora (1)
3) Conclave (3)
4) The Brutalist (4)
5) Dune: Part Two (5)
6) Sing Sing (6)
7) Gladiator II (7)
8) Blitz (8)
9) September 5 (10)
10) A Complete Unknown (-)
Other possibles: Saturday Night, A Real Pain, The Room Next Door.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (1)
2) Sean Baker/Anora (2)
3) Edward Berger/Conclave (3)
4) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (4)
5) Denis Villenueve/Dune: Part Two (5)
Other possibles: Ridley Scott/Gladiator II, Pedro Almodovar/The Room Next Door, Jason Reitman/Saturday Night.
I'm getting back to checking in on the current Oscar predictions for TFF #51 films from some Oscar experts. Today I turn to Awards Radar's Joey Magidson. Magidson's website currently has 11 TFF #51 films predicted to get 47 total nominations lead by Conclave and Saturday Night. Awards Radar currently has no predictions for Original Song, International feature, Documentary feature or any of the Shorts categories.
Here's the breakdown:
Conclave (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Supporting Actor (Tucci), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing and Score.
Saturday Night (10): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Sound and Score.
Emilia Perez (9): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup/Hair and Score. (Note here that I fully expect Emilia to pick up at least one nomination for Song)
Anora (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Original Screenplay, Film Editing.
Maria (5): Best Actress (Jolie), Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Sound.
September 5 (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.
The Apprentice (2): Best Actor (Stan), Supporting Actor (Strong).
The Outrun (1): Best Actress (Ronan).
A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor (Culkin).
The Piano Lesson (1): Best Supporting Actress (Deadwyler).
Via Next Best Picture and YouTube, here is the post-screening Q+A for Maria from the New York Film Festival featuring Angelina Jolie, Ed Lachman and director Pablo Larrain:
It's time! As we end September here are my first predictions for Oscar nominations for the 97th Academy Awards. I'll start off with predicting the eight "Above the Line" categories first. I'll keep updating those from now until the day before the nomination announcement-Friday, Jan. 17th. I'll also add other categories along the way as we get closer and ultimately will have all the categories predicted before nomination day. As always TFF films are indicated in Bold. Films are listed in order of their likelihood of nomination.
BEST PICTURE
1) Anora
2) Emilia Perez
3) Conclave
4) The Brutalist
5) Dune II
6) Sing Sing
7) Gladiator II
8) Blitz
9) Saturday Night
10) September 5
Other Possibilities: A Real Pain, A Complete Unknown, The Room Next Door.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez
2) Sean Baker/Anora
3) Edward Berger/Conclave
4) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist
5) Denis Villenueve/Dune II
Others: Ridley Scott/Gladiator II, Steve McQueen/Blitz, Pedro Almodovar/The Room Next Door.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Mikey Madison/Anora
2) Angelina Jolie/Maria
3) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez
4) Nicole Kidman/Babygirl
5) Saoirse Ronan/The Outrun
Others: Amy Adams/Nightbitch, Tilda Swinton/The Room Next Door, Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here.
BEST ACTOR
1) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave
2) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing
3) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist
4) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown
5) Daniel Craig/Queer
Others: Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice, Paul Mescal/Gladiator II, John David Washington/The Piano Lesson.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez
2) Danielle Deadwyler/The Piano Lesson
3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave
4) Saoirse Ronan/Blitz
5) Selena Gomez/Emilia Perez
Others: Felicity Jones/The Brutalist, Lady Gaga/Joker: Folie a Deux, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor/Nickel Boys.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain
2) Denzel Washington/Gladiator II
3) Clarence Maclin/Sing Sing
4) Stanley Tucci/Conclave
5) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist
Others: Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice, Samuel L. Jackson/The Piano Lesson, John Magaro/September 5.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Conclave
2) Sing Sing
3) Dune II
4) Nickel Boys
5) The Piano Lesson
Others: Hit Man, Inside Out 2, I'm Still Here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Anora
2) Saturday Night
3) The Brutalist
4) A Real Pain
5) Emilia Perez
Others: September 5, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Blitz
If I'm 100% accurate this is how nominations breakdown for TFF #51 films in these eight categories:
Emilia Perez (6 noms): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Supporting Actress (Gomez), Original Screenplay.
Conclave (6 noms): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Supporting Actor (Tucci), Adapted Screenplay.
Anora (4 noms): BestPicture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Original Screenplay.
The Piano Lesson (2 noms and 2 maybes) Nominations: Supporting Actress (Deadwyler), Adapted Screenplay. Other possibilities: Actor (Washington), Supporting Actor (Jackson).
A Real Pain (2 noms and 1 maybe): Nominations: Supporting Actor (Culkin), Original Screenplay. Maybe: Best Picture.
Saturday Night (2 noms): Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay.
September 5 (1 nom and 2 maybes): Nomination: Best Picture. Maybes: Supporting Actor (Magaro), Original Screenplay.
Nickel Boys ( 1 nom and 1 maybe): nomination: Adapted Screenplay. Maybe: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor.
The Outrun (1 nom); Best Actress (Ronan).
Maria (1 nom): Best Actress (Jolie).
The Apprentice (2 maybes): Best Actor (Stan), Supporting Actor (Strong).
Overall, these 11 films account for 26 nominations and another 8 possible nominations in these eight categories.
I'm right on the cusp of MTFB's first set of Oscar nomination predictions. Those are coming Monday and will include the Big Eight categories: Picture, Direction, all four acting categories and both screenplay categories. Today, as a teaser, I thought I'd run down what feel like the chances for Telluride-specific Best Picture possibilities.
PROBABLE BP NOMINEES:
Anora
Emilia Perez
Conclave
POSSIBLE BP NOMINEES:
Saturday Night
September 5
MAYBE THEY GET IN:
A Real Pain
The Piano Lesson
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Nickel Boys
WAY OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Maria
The Apprentice
AND MY PERSONAL APPEAL:
Zarawski v. Texas
DISCLAIMER TRAILER
Apple TV+ has released a trailer for the Cate Blanchett starring, Alfonso Cuaron directed Disclaimer. The seven part series will premiere Oct. 11th. Here's the trailer from YouTube:
TRAILER AND POSTER FOR A REAL PAIN
CHARACTER POSTERS FOR EMILIA PEREZ
From Netflix this week, character posters for Karla Sofia Gascon, Zoe Saldana and Selena Gomez as their character's from Jacques Audiard's audacious Emilia Perez:
As we turn the corner after The SHOW to what films from The SHOW will make an impact on the awards season, I thought it would behoove us to look back at the history of the fest and its Oscar players. So I went back to 2009, the year that the new expanded list of nominees came into effect so that there were more than five Best Picture nominees each year.
One of the reasons I decided to do that is that early Oscar BP lists are indicating that 2024 might be a record year for films that played Telluride. Since 2009 the largest number of TFF films nominated for Best Picture in a single year is four and that has happened twice. This year, at least as the early predictions are showing, TFF #51 almost certainly will be the third time that four films from the best will be nominated. But, there is a reasonable chance that there will be five films among the ten that get the noms.
Here's the history of TFF Best Picture nominees since 2009 (* indicates Best Picture winner):
2009 (2)- An Education, Up in the Air
2010 (3)- The King's Speech*, Black Swan, 127 Hours
2011 (2)- The Artist*, The Descendants
2012 (2)- Argo*, Amour
2013 (3)- 12 Years a Slave*, Gravity, Nebraska
2014 (2)- Birdman*, The Imitation Game
2015 (2)- Spotlight*, Room
2016 (4)- Moonlight*, Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea
2017 (3)- The Shape of Water*, Darkest Hour, Lady Bird
2018 (2)- The Favourite, Roma
2019 (3)- Parasite*, Ford v. Ferrari, Marriage Story
2020 (2)- Nomadland*, The Father (if TFF had happened these films would have played)
2021 (3)- Belfast, King Richard, The Power of the Dog
2022 (2)- TAR, Women Talking
2023 (4)- Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
2024- ?????
That's a total of 39 Best Picture nominees over the 15 years for an average of 2.6 per year with 10 winners. Will the 2024 race be the first wherein Telluride has five nominees?
The Telluride History 1996-Present page has been updated for 2024 including Films, Guests, Tributes and Guest Director information. Also, the collection of Ratings from The Professionals, The People and the Composites have been updated with 2024 included.
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Here's my annual final step of computation that has become an MTFB tradition. It's The Composite Telluride ratings in which I add the average from The People and The Professionals to provide one more glimpse of how The SHOW's films were perceived.
To begin, here's the history of The Composite Telluride with the film's combined rating at the right followed by its position on each of the two lists in brackets.
1) Anora 8.97 [3-1]
2) Emilia Perez 8.38 [5-3]
3) September 5 8.28 [7--2]
4) Conclave 8.17 [4-5]
5) Saturday Night 7.88 [9-4]
6) Maria 7.11 [11-9]
7) Nickel Boys 7.03 [16-6]
8) Piece by Piece 7.00 [14-7]
9) The Friend 6.76 [12-10]
10) The Piano Lesson 6.75 [15-8]
11) The End 5.17 [18-11]
Anora replaces The Power of the Dog on the All Time Top Ten Composite Ratings list. That looks like this now:
1) (TIE) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) 2013 (Won Best Picture)
1) (TIE) Argo (9.25) 2012 (Won Best Picture)
3) Roma (9.20) 2018 (Won Best Foreign Language Film)
4) Moonlight (9.19) 2016 (Won Best Picture)
5) Birdman (9.18) 2014 (Won Best Picture)
6) Parasite (9.11) 2019 (Won Best Picture)
7) Stories We Tell (9.10) 2012
8) Poor Things (9.04) 2023
9) (TIE) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) 2013
9) (TIE) Anora (8.97) 2024
SEPTEMBER 5 GOES TO PARAMOUNT
Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter reports that September 5 will be distributed by Paramount. The film will have a [platformed release beginning Nov. 27th and then expanding into other theaters in December.
Feinberg writes in his article:
"Interest among distributors reached a crescendo after the film premiered at — and blew the roof off of — the recent Venice and Telluride film festivals, generating comparisons to past best picture Oscar winners Argo and Spotlight."
September 5 landed with a solid 4.20 rating in MTFB's People's Poll and a 4.08 from the Professionals ending up as a surprise #2 from them. As you can see above the film had a composite rating of 8.28 that put it at #3 on the composite chart ahead of such possible Oscar contenders such as Conclave, Saturday Night, Nickel Boys and The Piano Lesson.
Well, here it is. The 2024 edition of MTFB's People's Telluride Poll. I'll address the parameters that guided the poll below but I suspect you want to get right to the results...
1) Zawurski v. Texas 4.64
2) Will and Harper 4.47
3) Anora 4.44
4) Conclave 4.34
5) Emilia Perez 4.30
6) A Real Pain 4.28
7) September 5 4.20
8) Memoir of a Snail 4.03
9) Saturday Night 4.02
10) The Outrun 3.74
11) Maria 3.68
12) The Apprentice 3.55
13) The Friend 3.51
14) Piece by Piece 3.40
15) The Piano Lesson 3.29
16) Nickel Boys 3.26
17) Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight 3.16
18) The End 2.52
TFF #51 had a record response with more votes from The People than ever before. To make the list a film had to have been seen by at least 25% of the respondents to the poll. A 1 to 5 scale was used. I added all ratings up for each film and those that met the threshold then divided the total ratings points by the number of people who had responded with ratings for that film. That provided the average rating for each film above on the 5 point scale.
For fun the top five most "seen" films among the folks who responded with votes for the poll where:
1) Saturday Night which was seen by 82.4% of respondents. The rest of the top five were:
2) Conclave 74.3%
3) Anora 71.6%
4) September 5 and Nickel Boys at 50%
I really thought as the numbers were coming in that Anora was going to take the top spot.
Zuwarski's 4.64 will move it to #6 on the all time list of The People's Telluride. That will also keep Will & Harper from moving onto the top ten as its 4.47 average will just be outside the top ten behind The Two Popes and Poor Things tied for the 9-10 spots now with a 4.51 average. Will & Harper's 4.47 ties them with Roma and Room now at the 11-13 spots.
And a personal note, I want to thank so many of you that offered thoughts in response to my Sept. 3rd post and the questions that it posed. It was, as they say, affirming. I mean really affirming. Thanks TFF peeps!
TORONTO'S PEOPLE'S CHOICE AWARD AND TFF
Yesterday Mike Flanagan's The Life of Chuck surprisingly (at least to me) won the Toronto International Film Festival's People's Choice Award. Runner-up Jacques Audiard's Emilia Perez which rated #3 on the TFF #51 Pro's Poll and #5 above for the People.
Second Runner-up was Sean Baker's Anora which you can see from this post and my previous post topped this year's TFF Pro's poll and was third on the just published People's Poll.
Josh Greenbaum's documentary, which played really well at Telluride (again, as you can see above) finished second in the voting for TIFF's People's Choice of Docs. Landing ahead of it was Tragically Hip: no Time for Rehearsal.
The Hollywood Reporter's Awards executive Editor Scott Feinberg opens the 2024-25 Oscar season predicting these nominations for TFF #51 films (Scott is making predictions in the Big Eight categories as well as Animated, Documentary and International Features).
Emilia Perez (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress-2 (Saldana, Gomez), Original Screenplay, International Film.
Conclave (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actor (Tucci), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay.
Anora (4): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Original Screenplay.
September 5 (4): Best Picture, Actor (Sarsgaard), Supporting Actor (Magaro), Original Screenplay.
Saturday Night (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.
A Real Pain (2): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Culkin).
Piece by Piece (2): Best Picture, Animated Feature.
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (2): Best Direction, International Feature.
The Apprentice (2): Best Actor (Stan), Supporting Actor (Strong).
The Piano Lesson (2): Best Actor (Washington), Supporting Actress (Deadwyler).
Maria (1): Best Actress (Jolie).
Nickel Boys (1) Best Adapted Screenplay.
No Other Land (1): Best Documentary.
Hollywood Gate (1) : Best Documentary (from TFF #50).
That's 36 projected nominations for TFF #51 films in theses 11 categories.
IndieWire's Kate Erbland talks to writer/director Jason Reitman about TFF #51 world premiering film Saturday Night. Here's the link.
BEHIND THE SCENES OF MEMOIR OF A SNAIL
MTFB friend Alex Billington at his site FirstShowing.net has linked five mini-behind-the scenes featurettes from Adam Elliots' delightful and moving Memoir of a Snail. Variety has it currently #3 on its Animated Feature Oscar nominations predictions and The Hollywood Reporter has it a #10.
I have long dreamed of the day when my publicly posted response to a film gets blurbed in a trailer or a TV ad...and, of course that hasn't happened...yet.
Back in 2011 I freelanced for The Playlist and reviewed three films at TFF #38 and filed reviews for The Descendants, Albert Nobbs and Butter. I had nice things to say about The Descendants and Albert Nobbs (Butter not so much) and thought that might be the moment. It was not.
Since then I know it's unlikely as to tag a blurb with "of Michael's Telluride Film Blog" seems smallish. But you know...maybe someday. I've certainly been highlighted by other sites and blogs regarding that meat and bones of what the blog does.
But I did get a little closer as I found with Gold Derby's roundup of Jason Retiman's Saturday Night I find myself included as "more reactions". Evidence below:
Sooooo...inching closer?
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Here we go...ratings from The Professionals of the films from TFF #51. Some standards: industry professionals agreed to rate the films they at TFF #51 on a 1-5 scale. The pros are a mix of critics, awards experts and other industry insiders. To make the list this year a film had to be rated by at least half of the Pros.
Here's this year's list of Pros:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Christina Jeurling Birro/Pop Culture Confidential
Clayton Davis/Variety
David Ehrlich/Indiewire
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Marshall Flores/Awards Daily
Mark Johnson/Good as Gold
Dave Karger/Turner Classic Movies
Joey Magidson/Awards Radar
Ryan McQuade/Awards Watch
Will Mavity/Next Best Picture
Clarence Moye/Awards Daily
Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anonymous
And here are the results for the 2024 edition of The SHOW:
1) Anora 4.53
2) September 5 4.08
3) Emilia Perez 4.07
4) Saturday Night 3.86
5) Conclave 3.83
6) Nickel Boys 3.77
7) Piece by Piece 3.60
8) The Piano Lesson 3.46
9) Maria 3.43
10) The Friend 3.25
11) The End 2.65
Congratulations to Sean Baker and Anora for topping the TFF Pro's Poll for 2024. Anora's 4.53 rating supplants Argo and The Shape of Water on the all time Professional's list in a tie with Poor Things for the 9th and 10th spots:
And after TFF #51, the new updates all time Top Tens *well...since 2012:
The Professionals All Time Top Ten:
1) Moonlight (4.87) (16) (Won Best Picture)
2) Parasite (4.75) (19) (Won Best Picture)
3) Roma (4.73) (18) (Nominated Best Picture)
4) Birdman (4.72) (14) (Won Best Picture)
5) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13) (Won Best Picture)
6) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
7) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
8) La La Land (4.58) (16) (Nominated Best Picture)
9) Poor Things (4.53) (23) (Nominated Best Picture)
9) Anora (4.53) (24)
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-LAST CALL
Here's your FINALCALL to get in your ratings for TFF #51 films. The scale is 1 to 5. The deadline is tomorrow at 5:00 pm PDT|. The People's results will be Monday's regularly scheduled post. Right now the battle for the top spot is a slugfest. Your ratings could tip the scale in favor of the films you loved best!
We're closing in the deadline for you folks to get your ratings of the films you saw at TFF #51 to me.
The DUE DATE for ratings is SEPT. 13TH.
EMAIL YOUR RATINGS TO: mpgort@gmail.com
I'm planning on posting The People's results on Monday, Sept.16.
please rate the films you saw on a 1 to 5 scale with 1 being awful and 5 being super! Decimals are fine.
TFF #51 AND OSCAR
Long time MTFB readers know that now that the fest is over, I will now spend a bunch of time over the next six months focused on the Oscar (and other awards) prospects of the films that screened at Telluride. That will include my own set of Oscar nomination and winner predictions which will start in a few weeks..
So, to kick that off, here are the current Oscar nomination predictions for TFF #51 films from Variety's Clayton Davis:
Emilia Perez (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Original Screenplay, Editing, Makeup/Hair, Score. Song (x2), International.
Saturday Night (9): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (LaBelle), Original Screenplay, Production Design, Editing, Makeup/Hair, Sound, Score.
Conclave (6): Best Picture, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actor (Tucci), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Score.
Anora (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Original Screenplay, Editing.
The Piano Lesson (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actress (Deadwyler), Adapted Screenplay.
Maria (4): Best Actress (Jolie), Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.
A Real Pain (2): Best Supporting Actor (Culkin), Original Screenplay.
Piece by Piece (2): Best Animated Film, Song.
The Outrun (1): Best Actress (Ronan).
Memoir of a Snail (1): Best Animated Film.
Nickel Boys (1): Best Cinematography.
Will and Harper (1): Best Documentary.
All We Imagine as Light (1): Best International Feature.
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (1): Best International Feature.
