Michael's Telluride Film Blog : OCCUPY!/Film Awards Clearinghouse 2011 Vol. 3/Dangerous Let Lose/Descendants/Artist/Kevin/Foreign/Oscar

A Thankful Turkey is wished for all! Good Gobbly Morning everyone.

OCCUPY!

Well, I continue to plug along over on Twitter with my "Occupy Oscar" (#occupyoscar) movement. Urging any and all who happen to stumble across it in the Twitterverse to contemplate some of the potential nominees that have received a smaller amount of attention thus far in this year's Oscar race. I'm stumping for "Shame" in virtually every imaginable category, including the performances of Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan. Also, I've been vocal about consideration for Corey Stoll in "Midnight in Paris" and Ezra Miller in "We Need to Talk About Kevin" for Supporting Actor. I continue to shout for a nomination for Asghar Farhadi for Original Screenplay for "A Separation" as well as for Mike Mills for "Beginners" and Janet McTeer for Supporting Actress in "Albert Nobbs". And here and there I am seeing some positive traction for some of these "Occupy" candidates.

I'd like to take some credit, but I've seen the amount of traffic the #occupyoscar hashtag is generating...so I know it would be a falsehood...still...look at some of the categories below in this new posting of...

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE 2011 VOL. 3

The Clearinghouse collates the latest Oscar projections publicly available from:

Sasha Stone at Awards Daily
Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere
Kristopher Tapley at Incontention/HitFix
David Poland at Movie City News
Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter
Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood
Film Misery
Film Experience
As always Telluride #38 films are Bold!

BEST PICTURE

1) The Descendants
2) The Artist
3) Midnight in Paris
4) The Help
5) War Horse
6) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
7) Moneyball

I expect there to be 7 Best Picture nominations this year...

8) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
9) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
10) The Tree of Life
11) Hugo
12) J. Edgar
13) The Ides of March
14) Shame
15) The Iron Lady

Dropping Out: Since I have expended the list to 15 spots, it means no film drops out since the last FAC.
Hot: Midnight in Paris, Tinker, Tree of Life, Hugo
Cold: Moneyball, J. Edgar, Ides of March
Comment: Looks like Hugo is surging as it gets released this weekend...I expect that to continue. I think J. Edgar and Ides are done and honestly, since we haven't seen War Horse and Extremely Loud, I'd say only The Descendants and The Artist are locks. I'm still less than convinced that the summer releases Midnight in Paris and The Help will end up on the list of Best Pic nominees. I also wouldn't be stunned to see Tattoo and Tree sneak into the field.
#Occupy: I am pleased that Shame makes an appearance at #14. I don't have any realistic expectation that it will get a Best Pic nom but it WILL be on a lot of critic's top ten lists in the next 6 weeks or so and it's also starting to show up in the conversation for a number of other categories as you will see below.

DIRECTOR

1) Alexander Payne/The Descendants
2) Michael Hazanavicius/The Artist
3) Stephen Daldry/Extremely Loud
4) Steven Spielberg/War Horse
5) Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris
6) Bennett Miller/Moneyball
7) Terrence Malick/Tree of Life
8) David Fincher/Girl...Tattoo
9) Tomas Alfredson/Tinker Tailor
10) Clint Eastwood/J. Edgar

Dropping Out: Nope
Hot: Daldry
Cold: Miller
Comment: Again, outside of Payne and Hazanavicius, the field is pretty "spongy/squishy". One of the reasons that I'm hedging on Midnight in Paris as a Best Pic nominee is that The Woodman squeaks onto the list with the #5 spot...barely edging Bennett Miller. And Taylor Tate of The Help is nowhere to be found on the list...makes me think that The Help's Best Pic nom isn't as secure as a lot of people think it is. Also, like above in the Best Pic race, I think Malick is a real possibility here.
#Occupy: Steve McQueen is my drumbeat here...though even less likely than Shame getting a Best Pic nomination.

ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/The Help
2) Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs
3) Michele Williams/My Week with Marilyn
4) Meryl Streep/The Iron Lady
5) Charlize Theron/Young Adult
6) Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin
7) Elizabeth Olsen/Martha Marcy
8) Rooney Mara/Girl...Tattoo
9) Kirsten Dunst/Melancholia
10) Olivia Colman/Tyrannosaur

Dropping Out: Zip
Hot: No one.
Cold: also no one.
Comment: An incredibly stable category over the last month. A lot of naysayers about Close's chances, but the 8 prognosticators I look at still collectively have her solidly in the race. Streep continues to show some small weakness. The Iron Lady is drawing mixed responses but Streep is generally being well reviewed. Same for Michele Williams turn as Marilyn Monroe. Personally, I'm suspicious of the Charlize Theron nomination...I'm not sue that the academy is going to cotton to what has been described as an unpleasant character...I also still wonder if the choice not to play Telluride was smart strategy after all. At this point my guess is that Davis, Close, Williams and Streep are in and everyone else is fighting for that last spot.
#Occupy: I don't have a real soapbox here unless Fox Searchlight decides (incorrectly) to campaign Carey Mulligan in this category instead of Supporting for Shame. Then we'd need to talk.

ACTOR

1) George Clooney/The Descendants
2) Jean Dujardin/The Artist
3) Brad Pitt/Moneyball
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar
5) Michael Fassbender/Shame
6) Gary Oldman/Tinker Tailor
7) Michael Shannon/Take Shelter
8) Woody Harrelson/Rampart
9) Joseph Gordon-Levitt/50/50
10) Ryan Gosling/Ides of March

Dropping Out: Nada
Hot: DiCaprio, Shannon
Cold: Oldman. Gosling
Comment: Also a stable category. Much like Picture and Director, I think that Clooney and Dujardin are in good shape and then the next three spots are a wrestling match from # 3 (Pitt) to #8 (Harrelson). I don't see Gordon-Levitt or Gosling in the final five.
#Occupy: Fassbender has been my cause here and yet, for the second straight Clearinghouse, he gets the #5 spot and what would be the last nomination...so maybe not as big an underdog as I thought. Still going to push it, though.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Olivia Spencer/The Help
2) Shailene Woodley/The Descendants
3) Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus
4) Berenice Bejo/The Artist
5) Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs
6) Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids
7) Sandra Bullock/Extremely Loud
8) Carey Mulligan/Shame
9) Jessica Chastain/The Help
10) Jessica Chastain/Tree of Life

Dropping Out: Judi Dench/J. Edgar, Judy Greer/The Descendants
Hot: McCarthy, Bullock
Cold: Nada (well, except for Dench and Greer of course)
Comment: Jessica Chastain is beating herself. She also has the #11 spot for Take Shelter. If you added all of her possible points up she'd be in the list at #5 and a nominee...but I think she's going to slit her own vote in so many places that the actress who has had (arguably) the Best Year Acting won't be an Oscar nominee at all. I also really do not think that Melissa McCarthy will be an Oscar nominee. A perfect Telluride day when the noms are announced would be: Woodley, Bejo, McTeer, Mulligan and Greer. It won't happen. Spencer has a nomination locked down.
#Occupy: MULLIGAN!

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Albert Brooks/Drive
2) Christopher Plummer/Beginners
3) Max Von Sydow/Extremely Loud
4) Patton Oswalt/Young Adult
5) Kenneth Branagh/My Week with Marilyn
6) Jonah Hill/Moneyball
7) Armie Hammer/J. Edgar
8) Kevin Spacey/Margin Call
9) Brad Pitt/Tree of Life
10) Philip Seymour Hoffman/Ides of March

Dropping Out: Jim Broadbent/Iron Lady, Tom Hanks/Extremely Loud, John Hawkes/Martha Marcy
Hot: Oswalt, Hammer, Spacey
Cold: Pitt, Hoffman
Comment: Patton Oswalt??? Really??? Also, despite the fact that this is a really fluid category, still no T-ride love. And I continue to say "Albert Brooks: Nice guy, funny guy...not really doing much acting in this film...over -rated performance"...and I wanted him to live up to the hype.
#Occupy: Still banging the drum for Ezra Miller in "We Need to Talk About Kevin" and Corey Stoll in "Midnight in Paris".

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Midnight in Paris
2) The Artist
3) The Tree of Life
4) Shame
5) Bridesmaids
6) Young Adult
7) Martha Marcy May Marlene
8) J. Edgar
9) Margin Call
10) Win Win

Dropping Out: The Iron Lady and Like Crazy
Hot: Shame, Martha, Margin Call
Cold: Young Adult, J. Edgar
Comment: After Paris...this is a free for all.
#Occupy: Shame, of course and Asghar Farhadi for "A Separation"

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Descendants
2) Moneyball
3) Tinker Tailor
4) Extremely Loud
5) War Horse
6) Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
7) Ides of March
8) The Help
9) We Need to Talk About Kevin
10) Hugo

Dropping Out: Drive, Carnage
Hot: Hugo, Kevin
Cold: Just the droppers
Comment: This category shows some strength for Moneyball and the weakness of The Help.
#Occupy: Maybe a little drumbeating for Kevin and Albert Nobbs.

OVERALL

The breakdown still has "The Descendants" and "The Artist" with five nominations each from the Big 8 categories. "Extremely Loud" has 4. 3 nominations apiece for "Paris", "The Help", "War Horse" and "Moneyball". "Shame" "Marilyn" "Albert Nobbs" and "Young Adult" would have 2 each.

Big "lurkers' include: "Girl...Tattoo" "Tinker, Tailor" "J. Edgar" and "Ides of March". The last two appear to losing steam.

And as "Hugo" rolls out this weekend...lookout. I think that it's going to be a player that everyone has kind of overlooked. I won't be surprised in three weeks (or so) when I do the next installment of The Clearinghouse if it's not much higher on the Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay lists.

And the earlier conclusion that Telluride's Oscar footprint would be smaller this year than last year (and also probably smaller than 2009 too) continues to look prophetic. T-ride films stand at 14 noms and 4 "possibles" in the Big 8 with this post. That projects to 20-24 actual nominations in all categories come Oscar announcement day.

DANGEROUS LET LOSE

David Cronenberg's "A Dangerous Method" is being released in LA and NYC this weekend. So there has been a lot of press/publicity about it this week. "Method" has had a mixed critical reception thus far. I wasn't a fan in Telluride. I was not as put off by Keira Knightley's performance as some but my issue was that the first third of the film was dynamic and interesting and the last two acts were not. The film crawled to a halt despite the talents of Cronenberg, Fassbender and Mortensen. You can see that the gild is off the lily as it has completely disappeared from any Oscar talk above (with the exception of a couple of pockets of support still popping up for Knightley). This despite the fact that it's scoring in the 70's on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic and at IMDb. Audiences at RT have it at 56% though.

REVIEWS:
A.O. Scott/The NY Times:
http://movies.nytimes.com/2011/11/23/movies/a-dangerous-method-by-david-cronenberg-review.html

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/a-dangerous-method-review-2011/

INTERVIEWS: