Thursday, January 29, 2015

First Post Nomination FAC/New Work for Morten/Filming Jobs

Good Thursday Players...

FIRST POST-NOMINATION FAC



We've known the Oscar nominees for a two weeks now and The Film Awards Clearinghouse takes its first look at what the experts think will be the actual winners when the envelopes are opened on Feb. 22.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar winners:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter


Telluride #41 films are Bold.  Telluride has 17 nominations form these eight major categories.

BEST PICTURE



1) Boyhood
2) Birdman
3) The Imitation Game
4) American Sniper
5) The Grand Budapest Hotel
6) Selma
7) The Theory of Everything
8) Whiplash

Comment: Prior to "Birdman's" PGA win last weekend, "Boyhood" was the overwhelming favorite. Now that's not the case.  "Boyhood" is still the leader but the margin is very, very close.  Also, don't count out Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game".  So much depends on what Academy members put as their second and third choices on those final Oscar ballots.

Many pundits are waiting to see which way the DGA goes on Feb. 8th as they believe that could be a definitive harbinger of how the BP race finally shakes out.


BEST DIRECTION

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood
2) Alejandro G. Inarritu/Birdman
3) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game
5) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher

Comment: A modestly tight two horse race, but Linklater still believed to be the favorite.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice
2) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything
3) Reese Witherspoon/Wild
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
5) Marion Cotilllard/ Two Days, One Night

Comment:  Moore is the overwhelming consensus favorite here.


BEST ACTOR



1) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything
2) Michael Keaton/Birdman
3) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
4) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper
5) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher


Comment: Redmayne's SAG win has moved him to the top of the chart here but it's a razor thin margin.  Personally, I still feel that Keaton could/will win in defiance of the last decade of matches between SAG and The Academy in this category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
2) Emma Stone/Birdman
3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game
4) Laura Dern/Wild
5) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods

Comment:  Arquette has this trophy sown up.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR



1) JK Simmons/Whiplash
2) Edward Norton/Birdman
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge


Comment: Simmons has this locked.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY



1) The Imitation Game
2) Whiplash
3) The Theory of Everything
4) American Sniper
5) Inherent Vice

Comment: A very competitive race between the top two scripts in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Birdman
2) The Grand Budapest Hotel
3) Boyhood
4) Foxcatcher
5) Nightcrawler

Comment:  Also a competitive category with any of the top three as realistic candidates for the win.



NEW WORK FOR MORTEN



Any number of outlets are reporting the "Imitation Game" helmer Morten Tyldum has a new gig. Reports indicate that Tyldum will be directing the sci-fi script "Passengers".  The film has gone through a number of iterations including the  past inclusion of Reese Witherspoon in the female lead.

Here are a couple of posts about the emerging film:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/imitation-game-director-morten-tyldum-in-talks-for-sony-space-tale-passengers-1201416509/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/imitation-game-director-tackling-sci-767652




FILMING JOBS


Fassbender and Jobs via The New York Daily News


Danny Boyles' "Steve Jobs" biopic starring Michael Fassbender as the late Apple legend has completed casting and begun filming according to multiple sources.  The film has had some hiccups on the way to the beginning of production.


http://variety.com/2014/film/news/katherine-waterston-steve-jobs-biopic-casting-1201386587/

http://theonlinewatchmovies.com/danny-boyles-steve-jobs-starts-shooting-in-san-francisco/


More on Monday...

Monday, January 26, 2015

The PGA and The SAG/New Imitation Trailer/Birdwomen/Hateful Eight Filming Begins

Good Monday morning!  The Oscar race took an unexpected jog over the weekend...

THE PGA AND THE SAG



Alejandro G. Inarritu's "Birdman" was named the Best Picture of the year on Saturday night by The Producers Guild of America in a very unexpected turn of events.  "Richard Linklater's "Boyhood" was thought to be a pretty solid favorite going into the ceremony and it was generally expected that it would just be one more jewel in its crown on its way to its ultimate Oscar coronation.  Now, that's all called into question as one of the most competitive and unpredictable Oscar races in recent years continued to unwind.

Then, Sunday evening, The Screen Actors Guild named "Birdman" Best Ensemble.  That result was expected and it does add some fuel to a new fire that could presage a "Birdman" Oscar upset.

After a season that has increasingly looked as if "Boyhood" would snap the string of Best Picture Oscar winners having played at Telluride, it looks as if there is still at least a reasonable chance that the "T-ride" effect might remain in tact. Recall the following Best Picture winners from the last few years:

2008-"Slumdog Millionaire"
2009-"The Hurt Locker"
2010- "The King's Speech"
2011-"The Artist"
2012- "Argo"
2013- "12 Years a Slave"

Five of the last six and the last four BP winners in a row came through Telluride.

And don't discount the still real possibility that Best Picture might still end up being Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game".  I still feel like that's a realistic scenario.

One other thing...about an hour before Saturday night's PGA announcement, as I was traveling back home from the Edmond Santa Fe Invitational speech tournament and following the PGA announcements for all the other categories (including a Best Doc win for semi-Telluride presentation "Life Itself"...it played the night before this year's fest started in Elk Park)...I tapped out the following tweet...believe me or not..."Got a feeling some weird voodoo might go down at the PGA tonight...Birdman? Imitation?...just a feeling...but..."

Then I read it again and deleted it.   I thought, no one will believe this and I'll look like a fool.  Now, pretty likely I'll not be believed that I wrote the tweet to begin with...but it's true.  I swear!

Nevertheless, the Oscar Race is back on kiddos...

Take a look at PGA coverage from HitFix/InContention , Awards Daily and The Hollywood Reporter here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/birdman-breaking-bad-fargo-win-2015-pga-awards

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/01/birdman-takes-the-producers-guild-in-a-surprise/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/pga-awards-birdman-upsets-boyhood-766661


Meanwhile, as to the rest of the SAG winners...three categories went according to expectations but Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything surprised for Best actor over favorite Michael Keaton so that category likely has a new frontrunner.  My bet is that Oscar's Best Actor race is actually too close to call right now.  As of this morning, I still believe Keaton could win.

The other individual categories went:

Best Supporting Actress- Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
Best Supporting Actor/JK Simmons/Whiplash
Best Actress: Julianne Moore/Still Alice

Take a look at some post SAG analysis here from The Hollywood Reporter and Gold Derby:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/sag-awards-birdman-weekend-continues-767052

http://www.goldderby.com/news/8327/sag-awards-winners-screen-actors-guild-entertainment-13579086-story.html


NEW IMITATION TRAILER



The Weinstein Company keeps the PR machinery running full tilt for 8 time Oscar nominee Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game" with a new trailer that popped this week.  Check it with this link:

https://amp.twimg.com/v/b6755761-f721-449f-b93f-1e3f7b1f2255



BIRDWOMEN



Take a look at this video featurette focusing on the women of "Birdman"  via Anne Thompson at Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/watch-meet-the-women-of-birdman-exclusive-20150122


HATEFUL EIGHT BEGINS FILMING

We've been telling you for while that Quentin Taratino and the crew for his new film "The Hateful Eight" was on the ground in the Telluride area.  Now, any number of film news outlets report that principal photography has actually begun.  For your entertainment, here is that story from TOH:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/production-begins-on-quentin-tarantinos-the-hateful-eight-20150123

And, a pic from Samuel L. Jackson's Facebook page:


That's Kurt Russell on the left...seriously...

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Berlin Adds Titles/Coens and Cannes/Winners Bracket/Much Ado About: Birdman, Imitation Game, Foxcatcher/First Look: The Revenant/Oscar and Festivals

BERLIN ADDS TITLES...MORE TELLURIDE INTRIGUE



The Berlin International Film Festival named their last set of films for competition earlier this week and there were a couple that caught my eye as potential films for the Telluride slate: Wim Wenders "Every Thing Will Be Fine starring James Franco and Rachel McAdams and Pablo Larrain's "The Club".  Here's a selection of coverage of the Berlin announcement:


http://variety.com/2015/film/news/berlin-film-festival-completes-competition-lineup-2-1201408621/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/wim-wenders-3d-every-thing-will-be-fine-starring-james-franco-will-bow-in-berlin-20150119

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/wim-wenders-3d-drama-every-thing-will-be-fine-new-films-by-pablo-larrain-oliver-hirschbiegel-complete-berlin-line-up-20150119


COENS AND CANNES
 


TFF #40 Tribute recipients "The Coen Brothers" have been named as co-Presidents of the Palme d'Or jury for the Cannes Film Fest.  The Coens presented "Inside Llewyn Davis" at T-ride in 2013.  The Coens have had a number of films play at Cannes and I have always thought their Cannes connection was likely a big reason tat "Llewyn" became their first film to screen at TFF.  Any chance that we might see their "Hail, Caesar!" might make a Telluride play?  At this point, the Feb. 2016 release date would seem to make that unlikely.  I have linked a few of the stories about their Cannes selection here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/coen-brothers-named-jury-presidents-of-68th-cannes-film-festival-1201409394/

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/the-coen-brothers-will-head-up-the-2015-cannes-film-festival-jury

http://deadline.com/2015/01/joel-and-ethan-coen-cannes-festival-jury-chairmen-1201353692/


WINNERS BRACKET



Now that the Oscar nominations are out, a good number of the Oscar experts are weighing in as to their thoughts about which films will actually carry off the trophies on Feb. 22.  Check those below:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/01/the-state-of-the-race-the-nominations-are-in-who-is-winning-what/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/now-that-we-know-the-nominees-whos-going-to-win-the-oscar-for-best-picture-20150116

https://twitter.com/kristapley/status/556895977052065793/photo/1

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/oscars-1202015

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/01/gurus-o-gold-a-week-after-nominations-any-changes/?


MUCH ADO ABOUT...

BIRDMAN COLLECTION



"Interviews and "Behind the Scenes" material for Inarritu's "Birdman":

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/watch-alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-talks-birdman-at-telluride-exclusive-video-20140901

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-23-minute-talk-with-birdman-stars-michael-keaton-ed-norton-20150108

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/making-birdman-alejandro-g-inarritu-761407

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/interview-alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-talks-birdman-the-films-bad-original-ending-critics-true-detective-more-20150108

http://deadline.com/2015/01/alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-birdman-director-interview-michael-keaton-1201341925/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9gL7qlMiz4

http://thecreatorsproject.vice.com/blog/birdman-backstage-is-a-virtual-tour-inside-the-soaring-oscar-nominee


IMITATION COLLECTION



Interviews and "Behind the Scenes" features for "The Imitation Game":


http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/la-et-mn-en-morten-tyldum-20150101-story.html


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cracking-code-how-two-work-745734


http://www.indiewire.com/article/keira-knightley-on-faking-her-way-through-the-imitation-game-and-getting-loose-for-laggies-20150120




FOXCATCHER: THE FIRST FILM



Here's an interesting piece of video.  This is the Jon DuPont promotional film...ther eal one...that is referenced in "Foxcatcher":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4WOqUkJmFQ&feature=youtu.be


FIRST LOOK: THE REVENANT



Entertainment Weekly has the first photos from Alejandro Inarritu's "The Revenant" starring Leonardo DiCaprio.  The film, set for a December release, would be a prime Telluride possibility if it's done in time for Labor Day...but that's a BIG IF...


http://www.firstshowing.net/2015/first-look-leonardo-dicaprio-in-birdman-directors-the-revenant/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/first-look-leonardo-dicaprio-gets-grimy-in-alejandro-gonzalez-inarritus-the-revenant-20150121


OSCAR AND FESTIVALS



Indiewire looks at which film festivals acted as the premiere host/site for which Oscar nominated films:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/the-2015-oscar-race-which-film-festivals-came-out-on-top-20150120


More on Monday...Have a great weekend!


Monday, January 19, 2015

Berlin Adds Titles/Looks at the Queen and Holmes/Yet More Lists to Contemplate/Wither Warner Brothers?/Rudderless Is Arriving

Welcome to Monday!


There WAS other news that had some Telluride Film Festival interest this last week in addition to the phenomenal 33 (35 counting TFF #40's "Ida") Oscar nominations for Telluride titles; 22 between "Birdman", "The Imitation Game" and "Foxcatcher".  So, I thought it'd be a good idea to peruse some of those developments/stories...

BERLIN ADDS TITLES



The Berlin International Film Festival added competition titles this week.  At least two of them immediately caught my eye.  Werner Herzog's "Queen of the Desert" with Nicole Kidman and Bill Condon's "Mr. Holmes" with Sir Ian McKellan and Laura Linney were announced in that group of titles.

As I have pointed out, we usually see a title or two that premieres at Berlin at Telluride.  To my thinking, and unless the film's respective distributors have some other plan for general release, these two films would be serious contenders to make the Berlin/Telluride play. "Queen of the Desert" has no distributor as yet and "Mr. Holmes" is with Roadside Attractions which ran "'71" through Berlin then Telluride last year.  Roadside also had Tommy Lee Jones "The Homesman" at Telluride as well.  Roadside also had "All is Lost" and "Gloria" in TFF #40.

Considering Herzog's strong ties to Telluride and Condon's occasional presence there (Condon's "Kinsey" with Linney played in 2004) as well as Laura Linney's frequent connection to the fest, means that both films would seem to be very real T-ride possibilities.

This all assumes that both films meet the exacting standards of the Telluride programmers.

Here's the post from IndieWire about the new Berlin titles:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/berlin-adds-competition-titles-from-werner-herzog-jafar-panahi-and-bill-condon-20150114


LOOKS AT THE "QUEEN" AND "HOLMES"


"Mr. Holmes" via Sir Ian McKellan's Twitter account


With the announcement of the addition of "Queen of the Desert" and "Mr. Holmes" we saw some posts this week with images for the two films:



Nicole Kidman as the "Queen of the Desert" from The Playlist


Check more of the shots from "Queen" from either The Playlist or Thompson on Hollywood here:




YET MORE LISTS TO CONTEMPLATE




I continue to collect and analyze various "Most Anticipated" lists for 2015 in an effort to identify what films are coming down the pike that could make an appearance over Labor Day weekend.  I've got three more to eyeball in today's post:

First, IndieWire's 40 Indie Films they're "Most Excited" to see in 2015:

  
Possible Telluride titles from this list:

"A Hologram for the King"
"Carol"
"Macbeth"
"Queen of the Desert"
"Southpaw"
"Suffragette"
"The Hateful Eight"
"The Revenant"
"The Tale of Tales"



Then, Ioncinema's 25 Most Anticipated Studio Films of 2015:


Among the films they list, those that would seem to have some Telluride potential are:

#3 "The Light Between the Oceans"
#4 "The Hateful Eight"
#5 "The Revenant"
#6 "Our Brand is Crisis"
#8 "Sicario"
#9 "Macbeth"
#20 "Truth"
#25 "Mr. Holmes"


And from The Playlist: The 20 Most Anticipated Foreign Films:



And from that list, here's what stands out as early Telluride potentials:


#7 "Erran"'
#5 "Every Thing Will Be Fine"
#3 "La blessure"
#1 "Flashmob"


WITHER WARNER BROTHERS?



Warners announced this past week that the Ron Howard film "In the Heart of the Sea" was being moved from a spring date to December.  Along with the announcement came a good deal of speculation as to why Warners had made the decision with positioning for an awards season run being a common theory.  Of course, from my perspective, it made the film go from "can't play Telluride if it's released in March" to "December makes it a possibility".

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/warner-bros-moves-ron-howards-in-the-heart-of-the-sea-to-christmas-1201405354/

I've already mentioned that I believe that Warners may press to return to Telluride after a noticeable presence in 2012 ("Argo")  and again in 2013 ("Gravity" and "Prisoners").  Warners wasn't in T-ride this year and that may be that their two biggest possible players: "American Sniper"  and "Inherent Vice" couldn't be ready in time or just preferred not to be a part of Telluride...or that Telluride didn't prefer those films.  Nevertheless, I wouldn't be surprised for Warners to be back at Telluride this year and they have a number of prospects that could make the lineup including the newly moved Ron Howard film "In the Heart of the Sea".  Other possibilities (meaning that they are films that have an announced released date post-Labor Day):

Jeff Nichols "Midnight Special" (Release: Nov. 25)
Scott Cooper's "Black Mass" (Release: Sept. 18)
and now
Ron Howard's "In the Heart of the Sea" (Release: Dec. 11)

At this point, I don't have a sense that any one of these films is more likely than the others.  I'd probably lean to starring "Black Mass" if it weren't for the release date opening less than two weeks after the close of the festival.  So let's leave it at..."Warners might be back with one or more of these films".


RUDDERLESS IS ARRIVING



William H. Macy's Oklahoma shot and written directing debut "Rudderless" arrives on DVD and BluRay tomorrow.   Seek it!

http://newsok.com/william-h.-macy-renews-his-love-for-movies-with-rudderless/article/5384981


More on Thursday...

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Parsing the Oscars Through Telluride's Lense

The nominating is all done.  Now onto the ceremony on Feb. 22

PARSING THE OSCARS (THROUGH TELLURIDE'S LENSE





TFF #41 produces films that grab 33 Oscar nominations plus an additional two from TFF #40 title "Ida".

The breakdown:

Birdman-Nine- Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.  Surprisingly NOT nominated for Film Editing (could tell you that it doesn't have a shot at winning Best Picture), or Production Design.

The Imitation Game- Eight-Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design and Original Score.  That's exactly what The FAC had for this film.

Foxcatcher-Five- Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Makeup/Hair. Foxcatcher really over-performed based on what The FAC expected but tell me how the film can be one of the five best directed, best written and best acted films and NOT be nominated for Best Picture?  More admired than loved, I guess.

Mr. Turner-Four- Original Score, Production Design, Cinematography and Costumes.  The score nomination was a surprise.

Wild-Two-Best Actress and Supporting Actress.  Laura Dern sneaks in ahead of Rene Russo.

Two Days, One Night-One-Marion Cotillard gets a nod ahead of Jennifer Aniston and Amy Adams.

Single nominations for: "Salt of the Earth" as Best Doc Feature and "Leviathan" and "Wild Tales" for Foreign Language.  "Feast" was nominated for Best Animated Short.

Overall, a remarkable year for Telluride films as far as Oscar recognition.

The FAC goes 75 out of 106 this morning or 71%...one of the least successful rates since I started doing this.  Lots of 3/5 categories.  The FAC's best category: Supporting Actor where I went 5/5 and Makeup...3/3.  Worst categories: Doc Feature and Sound Mixing -2/5 in each. In the "close but no cigar" dept.  Seven categories had nominations from a film that The FAC had as the #6 possibility.

Surprises and weirdness:

In addition to my amazement mentioned above vis-a-vis "Foxcatcher"...

The "American Sniper" trend turned out to be real...very real.  Six nominations...Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Sound Editing and Mixing.  The Final FAC had "Sniper" getting one nomination for screenplay.

"Budapest" performed better than expected and "Boyhood" (which is still your favorite for Best Pic, Director, Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress...but...see below) did exactly what was expected.

"Birdman" underperformed. as The FAC had it getting 10 nominations including Film Editing and Production Design on which is missed.  It did get a Sound Mixing nomination, which was a bit of a surprise.

"Selma"  Only two nominations...Song and Picture...how very odd.

"The Imitation Game" The FAC predicted "The Imitation Game eight nominations exactly.  Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design and Score.

Category notes:

The Bennett Miller directing nomination is really a surprise.
Let this be remembered: don't bet against Bradley Cooper for an acting nomination.
"Birdman's" lack of a film editing nomination is probably an indication it won't be a Best Picture winner.
Best Song: "Grateful" from "Beyond the Lights" wasn't even in The FAC's final ten.
No "LEGO Movie" for Animated Feature...it was easily #1 in The FAC...that's a huge surprise.
No one can figure out Documentary feature nominees...
"Ida" for cinematography...way to go Kris Tapley!


Finally..."Boyhood", as mentioned above, is still your favorite...but...clearly The Academy loves "Grand Budapest" and "Imitation Game".  At this point, if an upset is to occur, it'll be one of those two films.

Early faves in each major category:

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Original Screenplay: Boyhood
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
Best Supporting Actor: JK Simmons/Whiplash
Best Actress: Julianne Moore/Still Alice
Best Actor: Michael Keaton/Birdman
Best Direction: Richard Linklater/Boyhood
Best Picture: Boyhood.

More later...and on Monday!

Oscar Nominations

Complete List of Oscar nominees via Variety:
Best motion picture of the year
“American Sniper” Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan,Producers
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole, Producers
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland, Producers
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson, Producers
“The Imitation Game” Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman, Producers
“Selma” Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers
“The Theory of Everything” Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten, Producers
“Whiplash” Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster, Producers
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Steve Carell in “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper in “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything”
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Robert Duvall in “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke in “Boyhood”
Edward Norton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Mark Ruffalo in “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash”
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Marion Cotillard in “Two Days, One Night”
Felicity Jones in “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore in “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon in “Wild”
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Patricia Arquette in “Boyhood”
Laura Dern in “Wild”
Keira Knightley in “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Meryl Streep in “Into the Woods”
Best animated feature film of the year
“Big Hero 6” Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli
“The Boxtrolls” Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight
“How to Train Your Dragon 2” Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold
“Song of the Sea” Tomm Moore and Paul Young
“The Tale of the Princess Kaguya” Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura
Achievement in cinematography
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Emmanuel Lubezki
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Robert Yeoman
“Ida” Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski
“Mr. Turner” Dick Pope
“Unbroken” Roger Deakins
Achievement in costume design
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Milena Canonero
“Inherent Vice” Mark Bridges
“Into the Woods” Colleen Atwood
“Maleficent” Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive
“Mr. Turner” Jacqueline Durran
Achievement in directing
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater
“Foxcatcher” Bennett Miller
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson
“The Imitation Game” Morten Tyldum
Best documentary feature
“CitizenFour” Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky
“Finding Vivian Maier” John Maloof and Charlie Siskel
“Last Days in Vietnam” Rory Kennedy and Keven McAlester
“The Salt of the Earth” Wim Wenders, Juliano Ribeiro Salgado and David Rosier
“Virunga” Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara
Best documentary short subject
“Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1” Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry
“Joanna” Aneta Kopacz
“Our Curse” Tomasz Sliwinski and Maciej Slesicki
“The Reaper (La Parka)” Gabriel Serra Arguello
“White Earth” J. Christian Jensen
Achievement in film editing
“American Sniper” Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach
“Boyhood” Sandra Adair
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Barney Pilling
“The Imitation Game” William Goldenberg
“Whiplash” Tom Cross
Best foreign language film of the year
“Ida” Poland
“Leviathan” Russia
“Tangerines” Estonia
“Timbuktu” Mauritania
“Wild Tales” Argentina
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling
“Foxcatcher” Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier
“Guardians of the Galaxy” Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Alexandre Desplat
“The Imitation Game” Alexandre Desplat
“Interstellar” Hans Zimmer
“Mr. Turner” Gary Yershon
“The Theory of Everything” Jóhann Jóhannsson
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
“Everything Is Awesome” from “The Lego Movie”
Music and Lyric by Shawn Patterson
“Glory” from “Selma”
Music and Lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn
“Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me”
Music and Lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond
“Lost Stars” from “Begin Again”
Music and Lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois
Achievement in production design
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“The Imitation Game” Production Design: Maria Djurkovic; Set Decoration: Tatiana Macdonald
“Interstellar” Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
“Into the Woods” Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“Mr. Turner” Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Charlotte Watts
Best animated short film
“The Bigger Picture” Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees
“The Dam Keeper” Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi
“Feast” Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed
“Me and My Moulton” Torill Kove
“A Single Life” Joris Oprins
Best live action short film
“Aya” Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis
“Boogaloo and Graham” Michael Lennox and Ronan Blaney
“Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak)” Hu Wei and Julien Féret
“Parvaneh” Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger
“The Phone Call” Mat Kirkby and James Lucas
Achievement in sound editing
“American Sniper” Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Martín Hernández and Aaron Glascock
“The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies” Brent Burge and Jason Canovas
“Interstellar” Richard King
“Unbroken” Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro
Achievement in sound mixing
“American Sniper” John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga
“Interstellar” Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten
“Unbroken” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee
“Whiplash” Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley
Achievement in visual effects
“Captain America: The Winter Soldier” Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick
“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist
“Guardians of the Galaxy” Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould
“Interstellar” Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher
“X-Men: Days of Future Past” Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer
Adapted screenplay
“American Sniper” Written by Jason Hall
“The Imitation Game” Written by Graham Moore
“Inherent Vice” Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Theory of Everything” Screenplay by Anthony McCarten
“Whiplash” Written by Damien Chazelle
Original screenplay
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo
“Boyhood” Written by Richard Linklater
“Foxcatcher” Written by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Screenplay by Wes Anderson; Story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness
“Nightcrawler” Written by Dan Gilroy

Analysis coming later today.  Quick count shows Telluride with 33 nominations for this year and 2 for last year's "Ida".

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

The FAC Addendum

THE FAC ADDENDUM

Late breaking..."American Sniper" and "Nightcrawler" have been gathering buzz for a Best Picture nomination.  That trend also extends to Bradley Cooper for Best Actor and Clint Eastwood for Director for "Sniper" and Jake Gyllenhaal  for Best Actor and Rene Russo for Supporting Actress for "Nightcrawler".

As of this morning's FAC post "Sniper" was at the #10 spot, Cooper was at #9 and Eastwood at #8. Meanwhile, "Nightcrawler"was at #9 for Best Pic, Gyllenhaal at #5 and Russo at #7.

The (Probably) Final FAC

Welcome to this special Wednesday edition of The Film Awards Clearinghouse with less than 24 hours to go before the announcement of Oscar nominations...

THE (PROBABLY) FINAL FAC

Here's the last posting of the 21 Feature categories nomination predictions.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar nominees:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter


Telluride #41 films are Bold (with their last rating in parentheses followed by the original FAC ranking from Vol 1. back on  ).

Today, I update the eight major categories:

BEST PICTURE



1) Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Birdman (2) (1)
3) The Imitation Game (3) (3)
4) The Theory of Everything (5) (6)
5) Selma (4)
6) The Grand Budapest Hotel (6) (10)
7) Whiplash (7)
8) Gone Girl (9) (8)
9) Nightcrawler (11)

If The Academy follows form from the last three years, this would be the cut off at nine nominations.

10) American Sniper (13)
11) Foxcatcher (10) (4)
12) Unbroken (8) (5)
13) Into the Woods (12)
14) Interstellar (14) (7)
15) Mr. Turner (15) (9)


Comment:"Selma" seems to be taking a small hit in the estimation of this collective of Oscarologists probably due the lack of a PGA nomination and The BAFTA snubbing that happened earlier this week.  "Nightcrawler" and "American Sniper" both seem to have realistic chances to get a Best Picture nomination although I continue to cross my fingers for Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher".

"Unbroken's" fall from favor appears to be complete.


BEST DIRECTION

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman (2) (1)
3) Ava DuVernay/Selma (3)
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game (4) (6)
5) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel (5) (9)

6) David Fincher/Gone Girl (6)
7) Damien Chazelle/Whiplash (7)
8) Clint Eastwood/American Sniper (9)
9) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher (8) (3)
10) James Marsh/The Theory of Everything (13)

Comment: The "Selma" slide doesn't show any effect in this category.  Marsh rebounds a little and Jolie seems to be done.


BEST ACTOR



1) Michael Keaton/Birdman (1) (1)
2) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything (2) (4)
3) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game (4) (2)
4) David Oyelowo/Selma (3) (6)
5) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler (5)

6) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (6) (3)
7) Ralph Fiennes/The Grand Budapest Hotel (8) (7)
8) Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner(7) (5)
9) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper (9)
10) Oscar Isaac/A Most Violent Year (10)

Comment:  Oyelowo may have suffered a bit.  Top three seem to be solid and then the next four: Oyelowo, Gyllenhaal, Carell and Fiennes fighting for that last two spots.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice (1) (8)
2) Reese Witherspoon/Wild (2) (1)
3) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything (3) (4)
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl (4) (3)
5) Jennifer Aniston/Cake (5)

6) Amy Adams/Big Eyes (7) (2)
7) Marion Cotillard/Two Days, One Night (6)
8) Hilary Swank/The Homesman (8) (6)
9) Emily Blunt/Into the Woods (9)
10) Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars (10) (7)


Comment: The category may be locked with these top five.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) JK Simmons/Whiplash (1) (1)
2) Edward Norton/Birdman (2) 
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood (3) (4)
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher (4) (3)
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge (5) (8)

6) Josh Brolin/Inherent Vice (6) (5)
7) Tom Wilkinson/Selma (7) (7)
8) Miyavi/Unbroken (8)
9) Christoph Waltz/Big Eyes (9)
10) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (NR)

Comment:  Carell's nomination in this category by the Brits sent up a flare that there could be some sentiment that he should be in the same category on Thursday morning and so, for the first time, he appears in Supporting.  Honestly, though, the top five are really solid.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood (1) (1)
2) Emma Stone/Birdman (3) (4)
3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game (4) (2)
4) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods (2)
5) Jessica Chastain/A Most Violent Year (5) (8)

6) Laura Dern/Wild (6) (3)
7) Rene Russo/Nightcrawler (10)
8) Tilda Swinton/Snowpiercer (7)
9) Naomi Watts/St. Vincent (8)
10) Carmen Ejogo/Selma (9) (9)

Comment:  Meryl Streep with a late slide...giving Laura Dern a bit of life.  Rene Russo is also very, very hot.  Don't be stunned if she has the fifth spot Thursday morning.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Imitation Game (1) (2)
2) Gone Girl (2) (6)
3) The Theory of Everything (3) (3)
4) Wild (4) (8)
5) American Sniper (7) (4)

6) Inherent Vice (5) (5)
7) Whiplash (NR)
8) Unbroken (6) (1)
9) Into the Woods (8) (7)
10) Still Alice (9)

Comment:  The revelation that "Whiplash" was categorized by The Academy as an Adapted script has this and the Original Screenplay race reflecting a new reality at the 11th hour.  Next to JK Simmons, a screenplay nomination has always been the second best possibility for a "Whiplash" Oscar nomination.  So, it shows up here at #7 in its first appearance in the category it will actually be eligible for.   I suspect it gets a nomination here and bumps "Wild" or "Sniper".



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Birdman (2) (1)
3) The Grand Budapest Hotel (3) (4)
4) Nightcrawler (6)
5) Selma (5) (9)

6) Foxcatcher (7) (3)
7) Mr. Turner (8) (5)
8) A Most Violent Year (9) (7)
9) The LEGO Movie (10)
10) Wild Tales (11)

Comment:  "Whiplash's" departure from this category opens a chance for "Foxcatcher" to hop back in.


ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The LEGO Movie
2) How to Train a Your Dragon 2
3) Big Hero 6
4) The Boxtrolls
5) The Story of Princess Kaguya

6) The Book of Life
7) The Song of the Sea
8) Rio 2
9) Cheatin'
10) The Penguins of Madagascar

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE



1)  Citizenfour
2) Life Itself
3) Keep On Keepin' On
4) The Last Days of Vietnam
5) The Overnighters

6) The Case Against 8
7) Virunga
8) Finding Vivan Maier
9) Tales of the Grim Sleeper
10) Salt of the Earth


Foreign Language Film



1) Ida (TFF #40)
2) Wild Tales 
3) Force Majeure
4) Leviathan
5) Timbuktu

6) Tangerines
7) The Liberator
8) Accused
9) Corn Island


CINEMATOGRAPHY



1) Birdman
2) Mr. Turner
3) Unbroken
4) Interstellar
5) The Theory of Everything

6) Selma
7) The Grand Budapest Hotel
8) Gone Girl
9) A Most Violent Year
10) Into the Woods


COSTUMES



1) Into the Woods
2) Mr. Turner
3) The Grand Budapest Hotel
4) Malificent
5) Selma

6) Big Eyes
7) The Imitation Game
8) The Theory of Everything
9) Exodus; Gods and Kings
10) Inherent Vice


FILM EDITING



1) Boyhood
2) Birdman
3) The Imitation Game
4) Whiplash
5) Gone Girl

6) Selma
7) Unbroken
8) Foxcatcher
9) Interstellar
10) American Sniper


BEST MAKEUP/HAIR



1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Guardians of the Galaxy
3) Foxcatcher

4) Malificent
5) The Theory of Everything
6) Noah
7) The Amazing Spiderman 2


ORIGINAL SCORE



1) The Theory of Everything
2) The Imitation Game
3) Interstellar
4) Gone Girl
5) Unbroken

6) The Grand Budapest Hotel
7) The Judge
8) The Homesman
9) How to Train Your Dragon 2
10) Fury


ORIGINAL SONG


1) Glory/Selma
2) Lost Stars/Begin Again
3) Everything is Awesome/The LEGO Movie
4) Mercy is/Noah
5) Big Eyes/ Big Eyes

6) Miracle/Unbroken
7) Yellow Flicker Beat/Hunger Games; Mockingjay Part One
8) I'm not Gonna Miss You/Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
9) Split the Difference/Boyhood
10) Opportunity/Annie


PRODUCTION DESIGN



1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Into the Woods
3) Mr. Turner
4) Birdman
5) The Imitation Game

6) Interstellar
7) Malificent
8) Unbroken
9) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
10) Snowpiercer


SOUND EDITING



1) Interstellar
2) Fury
3) Unbroken
4) Godzilla
5) Birdman

6) American Sniper
7) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
8) Guardians of the Galaxy
9) Transformers 4
10) Into the Woods


SOUND MIXING

1) Into the Woods
2) Unbroken
3) Transformers 4
4) Interstellar
5) Get On Up

6) Fury
7) American Sniper
8) Whiplash
9) Guardians of the Galaxy
10) The Hobbit; The Battle of the Five Armies

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Interstellar
2) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3) Guardians of the Galaxy
4) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
5) Godzilla

6) Transformers 4
7) X-Men: Days of Future Past
8) Malificent
9) Captain America; The Winter Soldier
10) Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb


NOTE: There appears, in the late going, to be a surge in "American Sniper's" direction.  A lot of pundits now think it's a likely Best Picture nomination and potentially more.  Don't be surprised if it pops up Thursday morning.  "Sniper"  could see as many as seven nominations.  


TELLURIDE #41 OSCAR BREAKDOWN



If The FAC was 100% accurate (and it's NOT...remember, past experience has shown The FAC to be 75-80% accurate on Oscar nomination morning with about 80% of the "misses' coming from the #6 spot in each category...except for Best Picture, of course)...

Anyway, if The FAC is 100% accurate, here's what would be the breakdown:

Telluride #41 Films would have 28 nominations ("Ida" in foreign film would go back to add to the TFF #40 total...which sits at 34 as a result) with another 12 possibilities.

They'd be spread as such:

"Birdman" Ten nominations (the most of any film and likely the only film with double digit nominations): Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design and Sound Editing.  

"The Imitation Game" Eight nominations (the second largest number of nominations of any film):  Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Score and Production Design.  It could also be nominated for Best Costumes.

"Mr. Turner" Three nominations: Cinematography, Costumes and Production Design.  "Turner" could also get into the act with nominations for Best Actor and Original Screenplay.

"Foxcatcher" Two nominations: Supporting Actor and Makeup/Hair.  "Foxcatcher" has one of the larger "possibility" profiles of any film with "maybes" for Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

"Wild": Two nominations: Actress and Original Screenplay.  Also a "maybe" for: Supporting Actress.

Foreign Films : "Wild Tales" and "Leviathan" with the aforementioned TFF #40 title, "Ida", a likely nominee.

Documentary Feature:  "Keep on Keepin' On" looks like a a nominees with "Tales of the Grim Sleeper" and "Salt of the Earth" as also possibles.  You can semi-add "Life Itself" as it screened in Telluride the night before the festival opened in Elks Park.

Two other TFF titles have possible Oscar nominations.  "The Homesman" is still in the mix for Best Actress and Best Original Score and "Two Days, One Night" could also see a Best Actress nomination for Marion Cotillard.

Non-Telluride films are led by "Boyhood", "Selma", "The Theory of Everything" and "The Grand Budapest Hotel" all with six probable nominations.

Expected to get five noms are: "Unbroken", "Interstellar" and "Gone Girl"

Four noms to" "Whiplash" and "Into the Woods"

Two nominations for: "The LEGO Movie", "How to Train Your Dragon 2", "Guardians of the Galaxy" and "Godzilla"


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

I've linked someof final Oscar predictions from experts.  I'll update this list throughout the day so check back...

Peter Knegt of IndieWire:

 http://www.indiewire.com/article/for-your-consideration-final-2015-oscar-nomination-predictions-20150113


Tomris Laffly of Popcorn Business:




Kris Tapley and Greg Ellwood at HitFix/InContention:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/final-predictions-for-the-2015-oscar-nominations


Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/final-oscar-nomination-predictions-20150114

Jenelle Reilly/Variety:

http://variety.com/2015/film/awards/oscar-nomination-predictions-2015-1201405074/

Steve Pond/The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscar-nomination-predictions-can-jennifer-aniston-and-jake-gyllenhaal-find-a-way-in/

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silcon:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/final-2015-oscar-nomination-predictions/


Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/nominees/oscars/2015/oscars1142015


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/01/awardsdailys-final-oscar-predictions/