Michael's Telluride Film Blog : December 2012

Monday, December 31, 2012

FAC Update: Picture, Director, Animated, Doc, Foreign/Oscar Matters/Rust/Argo/Amour/Sapphires/Coming Soon

FAC UPDATE

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT].

BEST PICTURE

1) Lincoln (1)
2) Les Miserables (2)
3) Zero Dark Thirty (4)
4) Argo (3)
5) Silver Linings Playbook (5)
6) Life of Pi (6)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)
8) Amour (8)
9) Django Unchained (9)
10) Moonrise Kingdom (10)
11) The Master (11)
12) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (12)
13) Flight (15)***
14) Skyfall (14)
15) The Impossible (13)###

No Drop Outs.

Comments: Not much change from last week. There's a lot of "conventional" wisdom the there will be 8 nominated films (remember that there can be anywhere from 5 to 10). If that's true and this compilation is accurate then "Beasts" and "Amour" get the last two spots.

Frankly, I'm less than convinced that that will happen. I'm feeling that the top 6 spots are pretty solid. After that I actually think that "Django", "Moonrise" and "Best Exotic" might actually be in better position than the chart indicates. From a pure passion perspective, "The Master" despite being at #11 for two weeks in a row and suffering from a precipitous drop over the past several weeks, may still be able to muster the 5% #1 votes that would get it a Best Picture nomination.

Further, I still feel that it's actually going to come down to "Lincoln" or "Argo". Though "Argo" "ZDT" and "Les Miz" are very tightly bunched and not massively behind "Lincoln".

But consider...critical response to "Les Miz" has been less than uniformly lavish...and "ZDT" has some baggage vis-a-vis concerns about whether it endorses torture...and besides Kris Tapley of InContention.com and Sasha stone of Awards Daily also have the same vibe...Tapley even thinks that "Argo" might have the edge to win the Best Pic Oscar (as per a tweet from Friday):

‏@kristapley

Starting to lean toward Argo win. Has zip to do w/ critic reaction to Les Mis. Argo simply STRONG with AMPAS. Phase 2 will be interesting.

Ballots are out and are supposed to be in no later than Jan. 3. But as you may have read in my last post, the new online Oscar balloting has apparently been a giant problem...the word is that The Academy is willing to FedEx ballots to members who have tried to e-vote but have had issues. You have to wonder if that's going to be a dynamic that will have any effect on the process.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (1)
2) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty (2)
3) Ben Affleck/Argo (3)
4) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables (4)
5) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (5)
6) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (6)
7) Michael Haneke/Amour (7)
8) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (9)
9) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (8)
10) Robert Zemeckis/Flight (10)

No Drop Outs.

Comments: Also a very stable/little movement category. My best assessment right now is that the top five are actually pretty solid with Haneke and Russell the only two that might sneak into the category.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Frankenweenie (4)***
2) Brave (1)
3) Wreck It Ralph (2)
4) ParaNorman (5)
5) Rise of the Guardians (3)
6) The Painting (6)
7) From Up on Poppy Hill (7)
8) The Rabbi's Cat (8)
9) Hotel Transylvania (New)***
10) Madagascar 3 (New)***

Dropping Out: Zarafa and The Lorax

Comments: The top three spots seem like locks at this point. The 4-5 spots are pretty solid...but...I'd expect "ParaNorman" or "Rise" will actually give way to one of the "arty" animated films that take up the 6-7-8 spots with "The Painting (La Tableau") being the most likely to sneak into the list of nominees.

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Note: the list of semi-finalists removed "Central Park Five", "West of Memphis", "Jiro Dreams of Sushi" and "The Queen of Versailles" from consideration.

1) Searching for Sugarman (3)
2) The Gatekeepers (2)
3) How to Survive a Plague (New)***
4) Mea Maxima Culpa (6)***
5) The Invisible War (5)
6) Detropia (New)***
7) The House I Live In (8)
8) Bully (New)
9) The Imposter (7)
10) Chasing Ice (New)

Comment: It's difficult to adequately gauge the level of "heat" since the semi-finalists announcement effectively upended the apple cart. "Ai Wei Wei" is outside the top 10, barely, but I think it also has a shot at a nomination.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Note: Nine films are left at this point. This Finals announcement also wreaked havoc on the previous set of rankings.

1) Amour (1)
2) The Intouchables (2)
3) A Royal Affair (3)
4) No (4)
5) Kon Tiki (New)***
6) Sister (9)
7) Beyond the Hills (7)
8) War Witch (New)
9) The Deep (New)

OSCAR MATTERS

Steve Pond at The Wrap takes an in-depth look at the Oscar nominating process and what it takes to snag one. Fascinating:

http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/easiest-oscar-nomination-and-other-oscar-numbers-secrets-70881

Meanwhile, Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter posted about the problems that have been a part of this year's first ever Oscar online voting process.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-e-voting-problems-worse-406417

Also, here's the latest FEINBERG FORECAST from The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-updated-projections-8-406092

RUST AND BONE

David Poland at Movie City News talks to "Rust and Bone" writer/director Jacques Audiard:

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/12/dp30-tiff-rust-and-bone-co-writerdirector-jacques-audiard-co-writer-thomas-bidegain/

ARGO

The Wrap's Steve Pond talks to "Argo" director/star Ben Affleck and writer Chris Terrio about dramatic choices they made in telling the story:

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/ben-affleck-chris-terrio-dissect-argo-and-defend-some-untruths-70581

AMOUR

The New York Times profiles the French actor and star of Michael Haneke's "Amour", Jean Louis Tritingnant:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/30/movies/awardsseason/jean-louis-trintignant-surprises-in-amour.html

THE SAPPHIRES

One of the highlights of this year's SHOW was the appearance of "The Sapphires" from The Weinstein Company and director Wayne Blair. News came this week that the film will open the Portland Film Festival next month.
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood reports:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/portland-announces-sapphires-as-opening-night-film-for-36th-edition

COMING SOON

In my next post on Thursday, I'll get to some of the responses I've had about this year's Oscar season from some friends of mine in the business...Academy members and film fans...

Come back on Thursday...

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Michael's Telluride Film Blog post delayed a bit this morning due to birth of grandchild Berkley Elizabeth Rios. Coming soon. Standby...

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Oscar Matters/Django Funchained/No/Gatekeepers/Coming Attractions:Birdman

Good Thursday Everyone. I hope that everyone that celebrates Christmas has had a wonderful, safe and healthy holiday.

You can tell it's the holiday season as most everyone that plays in the internet world of film has dialed their coverage back a bit over the last week or so. Consequently, this morning's post is a bit under-sized.

OSCAR MATTERS

Awards Daily's/Sasha Stone's last 2012 Oscar Podcast

http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpodcast/episode13.mp3

DJANGO FUNCHAINED

I got a little crazy yesterday and had some fun vis-a-vis the success of Quentin Tarantino's latest "Django Unchained". If you have an interest check Twitter and the hashtag #tarantinosequels.

NO

Pablo Larrain's film about the power of media in a political campaign continues toward what is a likely Best Foreign Film nomination in 2 weeks.

Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood Talks "No" with director Pablo Larrain and star Gael Garcia Bernal:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/gael-garcia-bernal-no

THE GATEKEEPERS

Another likely Oscar nominee for Best Documentary, "The Gatekeepers" deals with the inside machinations of Israel's intelligence community.

Jeff Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere talks about and endorses the documentary:

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/12/a_riveting_docu.php

COMING ATTRACTIONS: BIRDMAN

News was bandied about three weeks ago that writer/director and frequent Telluride Film Festival player (Babel, Biutiful) Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu has been attached to co-write and direct a comedy, of all things. Filming reportedly will begin in March which means that should Inarritu make his third straight film that is a part of The SHOW we shouldn't expect to see it until TFF #41 in 2014.

Here are posts from Variety, The Playlist and The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118063310.html/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-to-direct-awesome-sounding-comedy-birdman-20121207

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-going-funny-399326

Birdman's very thin IMDb entry is here:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2562232/

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More on Monday...have a good weekend everyone!

Monday, December 24, 2012

The FAC Update: Picture, Supporting, Screenplays,Visuals/Oscar Matters/Foreign Affairs

Good Morning and Happy Christmas Eve! I hope Santa is good to you tonight...unless, of course, you've been bad this year.

THE FAC UPDATE: PICTURE, SUPPORTING, CINEMATOGRAPHY AND EDITING

BEST PICTURE

1) LINCOLN (1)

2) LES MISERABLES (2)

3) ARGO (4)

4) ZERO DARK THIRTY (3)

5) SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (5)

6) LIFE OF PI (6)

7) BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD (7)

8) AMOUR (8)

9) DJANGO UNCHAINED (9)

10) MOONRISE KINGDOM (11)

11) THE MASTER (10)

12) THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL (12)

13) THE IMPOSSIBLE (14)

14) SKYFALL (15)

15) FLIGHT (13)###

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) ANNE HATHAWAY/LES MISERABLES (1)

2) SALLY FIELD/LINCOLN (2)

3) HELEN HUNT/THE SESSIONS (3)

4) AMY ADAMS/THE MASTER (4)

5) NICOLE KIDMAN/THE PAPERBOY (NEW)***

6) MAGGIE SMITH/BEST EXOTIC (5)

7) ANN DOWD/COMPLIANCE (9)***

8) SAMANTHA BARKS/LES MISERABLES (6)###

9) JACKI WEAVER/SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (7)###

10) JUDI DENCH/SKYFALL (10)

DROPPING OUT: KELLY REILLY/FLIGHT

COMMENTS: Nicole Kidman’s back to back nominations from The Screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globes woke the Oscar predictors up in a big way as she goes from nowhere to the #5 spot and essentially appears to be battling Maggie Smith and Amy Adams in a three way race for the last spot in this category. Also hot is Ann Dowd who we found out this last week is funding her own campaign for the nomination…and appears to be gaining some traction.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) TOMMY LEE JONES/LINCOLN (1)

2) PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN/THE MASTER (2)

3) ROBERT DE NIRO/SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (3)

4) ALAN ARKIN/ARGO (5)

5) LEONARDO DI CAPRIO/DJANGO UNCHAINED (4)

6) CHRISTOPH WALTZ/DJANGO UNCHAINED (NEW)***

7) MATTHEW MC CONAUGHEY/MAGIC MIKE (6)

8) JAVIER BARDEM/SKYFALL (NEW)***

9) EDDIE REDMAYNE/LES MISERABLES (7)###

10) JOHN GOODMAN/FLIGHT (8)###

DROPPING OUT: SAMUEL L. JACKSON AND BRYAN CRANSTON

COMMENTS: Big boosts for Waltz, who benefits from the announcement from The Weinstein Company that he’s being campaigned in the Supporting category. Bardem also benefits from the nomination from The Screen Actors Guild.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) LINCOLN (1)

2) SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (2)

3) ARGO (3)

4) BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD (4)

5) LIFE OF PI (5)

6) LES MISERABLES (6)

7) THE SESSIONS (7)

8) PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER (NEW)***

9) ANNA KARENINA (8)

10) ON THE ROAD (9)

DROPPING OUT: THIS IS 40

COMMENTS: “Perks” gathering some heat.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) ZERO DARK THIRTY (1)

2) THE MASTER (2)

3) AMOUR (3)

4) MOONRISE KINGDOM (4)

5) DJANGO UNCHAINED (5)

6) FLIGHT (6)

7) LOOPER (7)

8) MIDDLE OF NOWHERE (8)

9) MAGIC MIKE (NEW)***

10) THE INTOUCHABLES (10)

DROPPING OUT: PROMISED LAND

COMMENTS: Category is pretty stable.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) LIFE OF PI (1)

2) SKYFALL (3)

3) THE MASTER (2)

4) LINCOLN (4)

5) ZERO DARK THIRTY (8)***

6) LES MISERABLES (5)

7) ANNA KARENINA (6)

8) DJANGO UNCHAINED (7)

9) BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD (NEW)***

10) THE HOBBIT (NEW)***

DROPPING OUT: THE DARK KNIGHT RISES AND CLOUD ATLAS

Comments: ZDT gets a big boost.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) ARGO (1)

2) LINCOLN (4)

3) ZERO DARK THIRTY (4)

4) LES MISERABLES (3)

5) LIFE OF PI (5)

6) THE MASTER (6)

7) SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (7)

8) SKYFALL (9)

9) THE DARK KNIGHT RISES (8)

10) DJANGO UNCHAINED (10)

COMMENTS: This is also a very stable category.

OSCAR MATTERS

OSCAR TALK WITH ANNE THOMPSON AND KRIS TAPLEY

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-100-looking-back-from-hurt-locker-to-zero-dark-thirty

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-zero-dark-thirty-wreck-it-ralph-animation-race-and-oscar-campaigning

OSCAR POKER WITH JEFF WELLS

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/12/kenny_poker_xma.php

FEINBERG FORECAST

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-updated-projections-10-400316

     A FEW MINUTES WITH FEINBERG

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/a-few-minutes-feinberg-oscar-405880


     THE L.A. TIMES DIRECTOR'S ROUNDTABLE

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/highlights-from-la-times-directors-roundtable-with-bigelow-affleck-russell-lee-hooper-and-gervasi

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

The Hollywood Reporter posts the 9 finalists for the Best Foreign Language Oscar:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/9-foreign-language-films-advance-406087

The Envelope for The Los Angeles Times talks to Best Actress hopeful Emmanuelle Riva of Michael Haneke's "Amour":

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/la-en-emmanuelle-riva-20121220,0,277223.story?partner=skygrid&buffer_share=4fa51&utm_source=buffer

I hope everyone has an excellent holiday...back on Thursday!

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Thursday, December 20, 2012

Roger in Action/Amour/No/Barbara/Argo/Oscar Matters/Coming Attractions: August?/And of Course...

Good Thursday to All...

How about we start with a little...

ROGER IN ACTION

One of my favorite moments at this year's Telluride SHOW was getting the opportunity to hear and then meet the amazing Roger Corman. Just a wonderful man who has made so much of what we think of as great cinema possible because he produced/directed classic B movies that gave some our most talented film makers their chance to get in and learn the business of film making.

Now comes word (as of yesterday) that Mr. C has new plans. Re-visiting his glorious past, The Hollywood Reporter says that the 86 year old legend is going to produce 8 low budget re-make/adaptions of Edgar Allan Poe stories...yes please. Here's the post:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/roger-corman-remake-edgar-allan-404165

AMOUR

Michael Haneke's "Amour" is at the front of the Best Foreign Language Film pack. Barring some weirdness, it's your likely Oscar winner in that category. Its distributor, Sony Pictures Classics, has bigger plans including possible nominations for Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actress and Actor. These are all possible to varying degrees...the Emanuelle Riva nomination for Best Actress being the most likely, but none of them are impossibilities. It will be interesting to see how often it shows up when nominations are announced on Jan. 10. I currently have it at #8 on The FAC Best Picture chart, which if The Wrap is to be believed (see story below) is exactly where the cut off point would be. Riva is at #4 for Best Actress, Jean Louis Trintignant is it #7 for Best Actor, Haneke is #3 for Original Screenplay and #7 for Direction. In my post Telluride polls of film critics/bloggers "Amour landed at #10 and The People's Telluride poll listed it at #6.

The Daily Beast has a new look at the film up this week and talked to Haneke as a part of that. You can find it here:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/12/19/amour-the-year-s-best-foreign-film-courts-oscar.html

Also from The Carpetbagger at The New York Times:

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/19/michael-haneki-finds-his-brando/?smid=tw-nytimesmovies&seid=auto

And The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/director-michael-haneke-amour-death-and-puzzle-open-window-70101

NO

Pablo Larrain's "No" starring Gael Garcia Bernal was one of this year's Telluride entries that is getting a good deal of mention as a possible Oscar nominee for Best Foreign Language Film. "No" currently sits at #4 on the latest review of that category in the Film Awards Clearinghouse, meaning it would be one of the five nominated pictures. In our critics' poll after the festival "No" was ranked #12. The People's Telluride poll ranked it at # 21.

It dropped an English language trailer this week and announced a U.S. premiere date as well.

Here's the trailer:

And accompanying posts about the premiere date and the trailer from Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere, The Wrap, SlashFilm Entertainment Weekly and The Playlist:

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/12/finally_5.php

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/gael-garcia-bernal-beats-dictator-words-no-trailer-video-69756

http://www.slashfilm.com/no-trailer-using-commercial-tricks-to-enact-political-change/

http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/12/19/prize-fighter-chile-oscar-foreign-film-no-director-pablo-larrain/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-u-s-trailer-for-pablo-larrains-cannes-sensation-no-starring-gael-garcia-bernal-20121218

BARBARA

Another TFF #39 foreign film that is making some noise in terms of a potential nomination for Best FLF is the German entry "Barbara". It's at #8 on the FAC and was rated at #7 by the People's poll after the festival.

The Playlist posted an article about director Christian Petzold this week. You can find that here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/barbara-director-christian-petzold-talks-the-influence-of-klute-reveals-what-he-plans-to-do-next-20121217

ARGO

I've added this week's post from Kristopher Tapley at InContention/HitFix as he talks to Director Ben Affleck and writer Chris Terrio:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/ben-affleck-and-chris-terrio-on-argo-the-middle-east-and-the-root-of-all-drama

OSCAR MATTERS

I've included two very informative posts from earlier this week that explain the Best Picture nominating process in detail. It will make your head hurt. Also, Steve Pond from The Warp says it will be 8 films this year. The other post is from Gold Derby:

http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/8-best-picture-nominees-thats-what-our-simulation-shows-exclusive-69696

http://www.goldderby.com/news/3761/oscars-complicated-counting-of-best-picture-ballots-explained.html

Gold Derby's Tom O'Neil and Michael Musto talk Oscar in this video:

http://www.goldderby.com/videos/oscars/types-derby-talk/

COMING ATTRACTIONS: AUGUST?

There's very little secret that I'd love to see the big screen adaptation of Tracy Letts' Pulitzer Prize winning play "August: Osage County" show up at the SHOW next Labor Day.

I read it fairly early on...and caught the play in New York before it closed. It also doesn't hurt that it's set in my native Oklahoma and shot, in part, here in the state.

Could it play Telluride? That's only a maybe at best.

IMDb lists it in post production...and you know that its distributor, The Weinstein Company, is going to want it to be in the thick of Oscar discussions for 2013. Those two factors probably help...but they don't make it a lock by any means.

Yes. The Weinsteins did bring both "The Artist" and "The King's Speech" to T-ride on the way to Oscar glory. But, this past year, TWC was in T-ride with only "The Sapphires". Their big Oscar guns ("The Master", "Django" and "Silver Linings Playbook") went other directions.

I also wonder if there might not be some blowback from the whole "Master" not being in Telluride situation, regardless of what hat story actually was.

Finally, TWC has Lee Daniel's "The Butler" and James Gray's "Nightingale" also as potential awards contenders that may or may not be in the Telluride mix. I rather think "Nightingale" more than "The Butler" considering Gray's attendance at part of last year's fest with a bit of the film to show during the Marion Cotillard tribute.

So...50-50 maybe.

One other factor that may be in play...George Clooney is one of the films producers. A good deal of that side of the equation (i.e. the film makers and their decision about wanting to be in Telluride) may rest on whether Mr. Clooney enjoyed his tribute weekend at TFF #38. I tend to believe that he did and that probably gives T-ride a chance at landing the film.

Picture (from left) Julianne Nicholson, Julia Roberts and Ewan MacGregor from the location shoot here in Oklahoma in October via JustJared and FanPop.com

Monday, December 17, 2012

The FAC Update/Globe Effect/Oscar Matters/Film Comment Top 50/Foreign Affairs/Argo Words

FAC UPDATE

Last week was a big week for laying down reminders to Academy members as they start the actual voting. The SAG awards and Golden Globes may not be particularly great predictors of what we'll see on Nomination Morning on Jan. 10th, but they do serve (as I think the New York and LA Critics awards the week before along with the AFI and NBR announcements last week) as mental prods for Academy members. I also believe that these 6 "precursors", if you will, affect the prognostications of the Oscar experts as well.

The other guilds, in addition to SAG, have some sway as well...when the timing lines up. This year both the Producers and Directors Guilds nomination announcements come too late to have any affect on the AMPAS nominating process.

As a result, between now and Nomination Morning, there really isn't another big "precursor" that's likely to tell us much of anything.

This Monday an update for Best Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor. Next week: Picture, Supporting Actress and Actor and the Screenplays.

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT].

BEST PICTURE

1) Lincoln (1)
2) Les Miserables (2)
3) Zero Dark Thirty (4)
4) Argo (3)
5) Silver Linings Playbook (5)
6) Life of Pi (6)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)
8) Amour (9)
9) Django Unchained (11)***
10) The Master (8)###
11) Moonrise Kingdom (10)
12) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (New)***
13) Flight (12)
14) The Impossible (13)
15) Skyfall (New)

Dropping Out: The Hobbit and Anna Karenina

Comments: Trendy picks include"Exotic Marigold Hotel", "Skyfall" and "Moonrise Kingdom". "The Master" slide continues and you are beginning to see a little erosion in "Les Miz" ardor. "Zero Dark Thirty" almost crept into the 2nd spot.

I continue to maintain that "Lincoln" is the film to beat and that if there is a "spoiler" it's likely to Be "Argo" rather than "ZDT", "Les Miz" or "Silver Linings".

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (1)
2) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty (4)***
3) Ben Affleck/Argo (2)
4) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables(3)
5) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (5)
6) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (6)
7) Michael Haneke/Amour (7)
8) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (8)
9) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (10)
10) Benh Zeitlin (9)

Comments: Bigelow rides the ZDT wave to #2 in the compilation this week. Maybe a slight diminishment for Hooper as a result of the Golden Globes announcement that left him and Russell off the list. Also, Tarantino seems to have gotten a bit of a bump among the Oscar guessers as a result of this week's announcements as well.

Spielberg's still the likely winner eventually...

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (2)
2) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (1)
3) Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone(5) ***
4) Emanuelle Riva/Amour(3)
5) Quevenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild (4)
6) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (6)
7) Helen Mirren/Hitchcock (7)
8) Rachel Weisz/The Deep Blue Sea (10)***
9) Keira Knigtley/Anna Karenina (8)
10) Emayatzy Cornealdi/Middle of Nowhere (9)

Comments: The Rachel Weisz balloon continues to pick up helium. Here's what I think might happen...Q. Wallis misses the mark and the 4, 5 spots are a bloodbath between Riva, Mirren and Watts.

I think the top three women are locked and that there's a real race between Lawrence and Chastain. Lawrence reclaimed the top spot this week (by the narrowest of margins), perhaps due to the on-going discussion online and elsewhere about the nature of torture and how its presented in ZDT.

If I were forced to pick today...I'd go with Chastain.

BEST ACTOR

1) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (1)
2) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (5)***
3) Denzel Washington/Flight (2)
4) John Hawkes/The Sessions (4)
5) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook (6)
6) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (3)###
7) Jean Louis Tritingnant/Amour (8)
8) Anthony Hopkins/Hitchcock (7)
9) Richard Gere/Arbitrage (New-ish)***
10) Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained (New-ish)***

Dropping Out: Ben Affleck/Argo and Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained

Comments: The Jackman train has left the station and has a big head of steam but it all but appears that Day Lewis is solidly the man to beat. Cooper got a bit of a boost from this week's announcements as did Gere. Waltz disappears as result of the announcement fromThe Weinstein Company that he will be campaigned in the Supporting Actor category...and notice his Golden Globe nomination in there.

The Joaquin Phoenix disappearing act continues...despite being nominated by the HFPA this week for a Globe.

If you're betting...put the dough on Daniel Day Lewis to win.

GLOBE EFFECT

Sasha Stone and Scott Feinberg posted separate assessments of this week's Golden Globe nomination announcement:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2012/12/13/the-globes-sags-whos-up-whos-down-oscar-ballots-go-out-in-4-days/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-golden-globe-nominations-what-401964

OSCAR MATTERS

A FEW MINUTES WITH FEINBERG

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/a-few-minutes-feinberg-all-401438

OSCAR TALK (Tapley and Thompson)

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-99-the-top-10-films-of-2012

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-ten-best-lists

LATEST GURUS OF GOLD

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/12/gurus-o-gold/

FILM COMMENT TOP 50

Film Comment had over 120 film critics chose the Best Films of 2012. Here' s their compilation of the Top 50 with TFF #93 (and #38) films Bold.

THE COMPLETE FILM COMMENT 2012 BEST-OF FILMS LISTS

RELEASED 2012
1. Holy Motors
Director: Leos Carax

2. The Master
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson

3. Moonrise Kingdom
Director: Wes Anderson

4. This Is Not a Film
Directors: Jafar Panahi & Mojtaba Mirtahmasb

5. Amour
Director: Michael Haneke

6. The Turin Horse
Director: Béla Tarr

7. The Kid With a Bike
Directors: Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne

8. Once Upon a Time in Anatolia
Director: Nuri Bilge Ceylan

9. Lincoln
Director: Steven Spielberg

10. Zero Dark Thirty
Director: Kathryn Bigelow

Rankings #11 - #20
11. Tabu, Director: Miguel Gomes
12. The Deep Blue Sea, Director: Terence Davies
13. Bernie, Director: Richard Linklater
14. Beasts of the Southern Wild, Director: Benh Zeitlin
15. Cosmopolis, Director: David Cronenberg
16. Barbara, Director: Christian Petzold
17. The Loneliest Planet, Director: Julia Loktev
18. Silver Linings Playbook, Director: David O. Russell
19. Oslo, August 31st, Director: Joachim Trier
20. Neighboring Sounds, Director: Kleber Mendonça Filho

Rankings #21 - #30
21. Django Unchained, Director: Quentin Tarantino
22. Almayer’s Folly, Director: Chantal Akerman
23. Magic Mike, Director: Steven Soderbergh
24. Argo, Director: Ben Affleck
25. Attenberg, Director: Athina Rachel Tsangari
26. The Color Wheel, Director: Alex Ross Perry
27. Rust and Bone, Director: Jacques Audiard
28. Killer Joe, Director: William Friedkin
29. Looper, Director: Rian Johnson
30. Life of Pi, Director: Ang Lee

Rankings #31 - #40
31. A Man Vanishes, Director: Shohei Imamura
32. Skyfall, Director: Sam Mendes
33. The Gatekeepers, Director: Dror Moreh
34. Elena, Director: Andrei Zvyagintsev
35. Haywire, Director: Steven Soderbergh
36. Damsels in Distress, Director: Whit Stillman
37. Abendland, Director: Nikolaus Geyrhalter
38. Two Years at Sea, Director: Ben Rivers
39. How to Survive a Plague, Director: David France
40. Keep the Lights On, Director: Ira Sachs

Rankings #41 - #50
41. A Burning Hot Summer, Director: Philippe Garrel
42. Miss Bala, Director: Gerardo Naranjo
43. Footnote, Director: Joseph Cedar
44. Compliance, Director: Craig Zobel
45. Alps, Director: Yorgos Lanthimos
46. Kill List, Director: Ben Wheatley
47. Farewell, My Queen, Director: Benoît Jacquot
48. In Another Country, Director: Hong Sang-soo
49. The Dark Knight Rises, Director: Christopher Nolan
50. The Day He Arrives, Director: Hong Sang-soo

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

The Hollywood Reporter talks to a number of directors that are thought to have films in the thick of the Foreign Language Film Oscar race including Nicolaj Arcel of TFF #39's "A Royal Affair":

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/foreign-language-oscar-four-directors-401901

And Sony Pictures Classics chief Michael Barker talks to HitFIx/InCOntention's Kris Tapley about "Amour's" Oscar chances:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/sony-classics-co-chief-michael-barker-remains-positive-on-oscar-chances-for-amour

ARGO WORDS

Deadline.com sat down and talked with "Argo" screenwriter and likely Oscar nominee Chris Terrio about the process that led him to be involved with the Ben Affleck film.

http://www.deadline.com/2012/12/oscars-qa-chris-terrio/

More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

FLASH: GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS

THIS MORNING’S GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS FOR FILM (via Rope of Silicon). TFF#39 films in Bold:

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Zero Dark Thirty

BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Les Miserables

Moonrise Kingdom

Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Silver Linings Playbook

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Richard Gere, Arbitrage

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

Jack Black, Bernie

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Ewan McGregor, Salman Fishing in the Yemen

Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

Emily Blunt, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Maggie Smith, Quartet

Meryl Streep, Hope Springs

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

DIRECTOR

Ben Affleck, Argo

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

ANIMATED FILM

Brave

Frankenweenie

Hotel

Rise of the Guardians

Wreck-It Ralph

SCREENPLAY

Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty

Tony Kushner, Lincoln

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Chris Terrio, Argo

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Amour

A Royal Affair

The Intouchables

Kon Tiki

Rust and Bone

ORIGINAL SCORE

Life of Pi

Argo

Anna Karenina

Cloud Atlas

Lincoln

ORIGINAL SONG

"For You" from Act of Valor

"Not Running Anymore" from Stand Up Guys

"Safe and Sound" from The Hunger Games

"Skyfall" from Skyfall

"Suddenly" from Les Miserables

NOTES:

***Multiply nominated films (via Awards Daily):

LINCOLN 7

ARGO 5

DJANGO UNCHAINED 5

LES MISERABLES 4

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK 4

ZERO DARK THIRTY 4

LIFE OF PI 3

SALMON FISHING IN THE YEMEN 3

THE MASTER 3

RUST AND BONE 2

THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL 2

THE SESSIONS 2

***Telluride films earned 10 Golden Globe nominations this morning..."Argo" had 5 (Best Pic: Drama, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor and Score) second only to "Lincoln". I'm still saying "Lincoln" wins the Oscar for Best Picture. "Rust and Bone" had 2: (Actress/Drama and Best Foreign Language). The other 3 TFF #39 noms were: Bill Murray for Actor/Musical or Comedy for "Hyde Park on Hudson", and both "Amour" and "A Royal Affair" for Best Foreign Language Film.

***"Django" probably actually gets an Oscar nudge from this morning's announcement. "Life of Pi", which has kind of fallen off the Best Picture/Director radar also probably got a shot in the arm.

***No BP nom for "The Master"...hmmm...

***Not hurt by this morning: "Les Miz", "Silver Linings" and "Zero Dark Thirty"

***A probable boost for Richard Gere's chances at a Best Actor Oscar nomination. Gere has been on the periphery of the Oscar convo for most of the season.

***Super glad to see the nomination for Jack Black as Best Actor MusicalComedy for "Bernie".

***"Salmon Fishing in the Yemen"...I liked it...apparently the HFPA did too.

***Does this morning's announcement and the SAG nomination for Nicole Kidman actually mean she's in the conversation for an Oscar nomination for "The Paperboy"?

The Golden Globes will be announced on Jan. 13th

The Really Full FAC Breakdown/SAG Nominations/Oscar Matters/Amour Notes/Coming Attractions

Good Thursday Everyone...

My break for the holidays is just over a week away...can't happen soon enough.

GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS TODAY WILL BE IN A SEPARATE POST SOON.

THE FULL FAC BREAKDOWN

Monday I published the more or less complete, top to bottom (OK, every category except for the 3 "Shorts": Live Action, Short Doc and Animated Short) Clearinghouse snapshot of where the Oscar race stands in the eyes of 9 of the most serious and successful Oscar Guessers on the planet...

Here's the breakdown of that long, long list from Monday...

As it relates to this year's Telluride Film Fest:

Telluride films are currently predicted to grab 15 nominations (that includes a couple in the "Shorts" categories) with another 7 possible...As I have been saying since the almost from the day the Festival was over, this year will not have the same Telluride presence on Oscar night as the past 4 or so. Getting to 20 total nominations seems unlikely.

Were it not for "Argo" and "Amour" the total would be smaller still.

By TFF #39 film:

"Argo" has an anticipated 6 nominations (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Score)with another 4 possible (Best Actor, Another Supporting Actor, Production Design and Costume).

"Amour" has an expected three nominations (Foreign Film, Actress and Original Screenplay) and an outside shot at Best Picture could make it a fourth nomination...depending on the ardor of the Academy members and the number of films that gather enough support. Remember that there can be up to ten films nominated for Best Picture. Last year there were nine and if that occurs again this year then "Amour" probably gets a nomination for the biggest prize. "Amour also has another 2 possible nominations for Direction and Lead Actor)

The only other TFF #39 film with a possibility of more than one nomination is "A Royal Affair" which the experts say is likely a Foreign Language Film nominee and a possibility for Best Costume.

The rest of the Telluride field that we might hear about on Nomination morning _Jan. 10th is limited to single nominations:

"Rust and Bone" for Marion Cotillard and Best Actress
"The Gatekeepers" for Best Doc
"No" for Best Foreign Language
Possibly "Paperman" and "Tram" in the Animated Short category.

Overall and irrespective of Telluride, our experts think (at least at this point) that the field will be led either by "Lincoln" or "Les Miserables". Both have a predicted 12 nominations...but "Les Miz" also has an additional 3 possibles. "Lincoln's" 12 seems to be its limit. That being said, I think some of the passion for "Les Miz" has ebbing...especially in light of reviews and the eclipsing power of the recent screenings for "Zero Dark Thirty". So, I suspect "Lincoln" will end up with the most nominations.

Other notes:
"Life of Pi" is looking at 10 nominations.
"The Master" is looking at 7 with another 4 possible, but its Best Picture chances are precarious.
7 nominations appear likely for "Zero Dark Thirty"
"Silver Linings Playbook" looks solid for 4 with another 4 possible.
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" looks good for 3 nominations with another 2 possible.

Those films that are threatening to be "players" but are mostly in the "possibles" camp are led by "Django Unchained" with a meager 2 nominations likely but another 8 possible. It's "critical" embargo was lifted on Tuesday night, so we'll see if that makes a difference. "Flight" also has an "under the radar" profile, if you'll pardon the expression...with one expected nomination for Denzel Washington's performance but another 6 possible. And "Anna Karenina" could see 3 nominations...but also has a shot at 5 more.

That's what we think we know at this point about Oscar 2012. We'll see if today's Golden Globe nominations move the needle at all.

SAG NOMINATIONS

Screen Actors Guild nominations from yesterday are here:

Best Ensemble

"Argo"

"Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"

"Les Miserables"

"Lincoln"

"Silver Linings Playbook"

Best Male Actor In A Leading Role

Denzel Washington - "Flight"

Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln"

Hugh Jackman - "Les Miserables"

Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"

John Hawkes - "The Sessions"

Best Female Actor In A Leading Role

Helen Mirren - "Hitchcock"

Naomi Watts - "The Impossible"

Marion Cotillard - "Rust and Bone"

Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook"

Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Actor In A Supporting Role

Alan Arkin - "Argo"

Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln"

Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"

Robert DeNiro - "Silver Linings Playbook"

Javier Bardem - "Skyfall"

Best Actress In A Supporting Role

Maggie Smith - "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"

Anne Hathaway - "Les Miserables"

Sally Field - "Lincoln"

Nicole Kidman - "The Paperboy"

Helen Hunt - "The Sessions"

Best Stunt Ensemble In A Motion Picture

"The Amazing Spider-Man"

"The Bourne Legacy"

"The Dark Knight Rises"

"Les Miserables"

"Skyfall"

Notes: Telluride #39 was recognized in three categories. "Lincoln", "Les Miserables" and "Silver Linings Playbook" led the field with 4 nominations each.

"Beasts of the Southern Wild" wasn't eligible as the film used non-SAG actors.

Reportedly the screeners for both "Zero Dark Thirty" and "Django Unchained" were late to the game which might explain the absence of an Ensemble nomination for either...though...you know...Chastain was nominated for ZDT; so the other possibility is that the actors just didn't care that much for either film.

Snubberoos: Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams/The Master, Everyone from "Django". Also a little surprised that Emanuelle Riva wasn't nominated for "Amour".

Surprises: Kidman and Bardem and "Exotic Hotel's" ensemble nomination.

OSCAR MATTERS

SASHA STONE/AWARDS DAILY OSCAR PODCAST
http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpodcast/episode11.mp3

SCOTT FEINBERG'S LATEST "FEINBERG FORECAST"
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-updated-projections-11-398393

AMOUR NOTES

AMOUR NAMED BEST FILM OF 2012 BY TIME MAGAZINE
http://entertainment.time.com/2012/12/04/top-10-arts-lists/slide/the-invisible-war/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/time-magazine-names-michael-hanekes-amour-the-best-film-of-2012-20121211

HANEKE PROFILED BY VULTURE.COM
http://www.vulture.com/2012/12/michael-haneke-amour-at-nyff

COMING ATTRACTIONS

Taking a step back this week to remind everyone about which films I've highlighted in this space over the past few months:

"Noah"
"Queen of the Desert"
"Asghar Farhadi Project"
"Nebraska"
"Jane Got a Gun"
"Mobius"
"Twelve Years a Slave"
"Monuments Men"
"Labor Day"
"The Nightingale"

Intriguing, isn't it?

More later today on the Golden Globes and then more on Monday...

Have a great weekend everyone.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

FLASH: SCREEN ACTORS GUILD NOMNATIONS ANNOUNCED

Here are this morning's Screen Actors Guild nominations via The Playlist:

Best Ensemble

"Argo"

"Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"

"Les Miserables"

"Lincoln"

"Silver Linings Playbook"

Best Male Actor In A Leading Role

Denzel Washington - "Flight"

Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln"

Hugh Jackman - "Les Miserables"

Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"

John Hawkes - "The Sessions"

Best Female Actor In A Leading Role

Helen Mirren - "Hitchcock"

Naomi Watts - "The Impossible"

Marion Cotillard - "Rust & Bone"

Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook"

Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Actor In A Supporting Role

Alan Arkin - "Argo"

Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln"

Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"

Robert DeNiro - "Silver Linings Playbook"

Javier Bardem - "Skyfall"

Best Actress In A Supporting Role

Maggie Smith - "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"

Anne Hathaway - "Les Miserables"

Sally Field - "Lincoln"

Nicole Kidman - "The Paperboy"

Helen Hunt - "The Sessions"

Best Stunt Ensemble In A Motion Picture

"The Amazing Spider-Man"

"The Bourne Legacy"

"The Dark Knight Rises"

"Les Miserables"

"Skyfall"

Telluride #39 was recognized in three categories. "Lincoln", "Les Miserables" and "Silver Linings Playbook" led the field with 4 nominations each. More later...

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