TFF #36/Oscar Clearinghouse and The National Board of Review

Invictus had a good day from the National Board of Review...Up in the Air's day was better...

The first real bell rang yesterday with the announcement from the National Board of Review of their choices for film excellence for 2009...good day for "Up in the Air"...

Here's their complete list:

Awards for 2009:
Best Film UP IN THE AIR

Top Ten Films(In alphabetical order) AN EDUCATION, (500) DAYS OF SUMMER, THE HURT LOCKER, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS, INVICTUS, THE MESSENGER, A SERIOUS MAN, STAR TREK, UP, WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE

Best Foreign Language Film A PROPHET

Top Five Foreign Films(In alphabetical order) THE MAID, REVANCHE, SONG OF SPARROWS, THREE MONKEYS, THE WHITE RIBBON

Best Documentary THE COVE

Top Five Documentaries(In alphabetical order) BURMA VJ: REPORTING FROM A CLOSED COUNTRY, CRUDE, FOOD, INC., GOOD HAIR, THE MOST DANGEROUS MAN IN AMERICA: DANIEL ELLSBERG AND THE PENTAGON PAPERS

Top Independent Films(In alphabetical order) AMREEKA, DISTRICT 9, GOODBYE SOLO, HUMPDAY, IN THE LOOP, JULIA, ME AND ORSON WELLES, MOON, SUGAR, TWO LOVERS

Best ActorGEORGE CLOONEY, Up In The Air; MORGAN FREEMAN, Invictus

Best Actress CAREY MULLIGAN, An Education

Best Supporting Actor WOODY HARRELSON, The Messenger

Best Supporting Actress ANNA KENDRICK, Up In The Air

Best Ensemble Cast IT'S COMPLICATED

Breakthrough Performance by an Actor JEREMY RENNER, The Hurt Locker

Breakthrough Performance by an Actress GABOUREY SIDIBE, Precious

Spotlight Award for Best Directorial Debut DUNCAN JONES, Moon; OREN MOVERMAN, The Messenger; MARC WEBB, (500) Days of Summer

Best Director CLINT EASTWOOD, Invictus

Best Adapted Screenplay JASON REITMAN and SHELDON TURNER, Up In The Air

Best Original Screenplay JOEL AND ETHAN COEN, A Serious Man

Best Animated Feature UP

Special Filmmaking Achievement WES ANDERSON, The Fantastic Mr. Fox

William K. Everson Award For Film History JEAN PICKER FIRSTENBERG

Freedom Of Expression BURMA VJ: REPORTING FROM A CLOSED COUNTRY; INVICTUS; THE MOST DANGEROUS MAN IN AMERICA: DANIEL ELLSBERG AND THE PENTAGON PAPERS

TFF #36 players on NBR's awards list are: UITA gets Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress and Screenplay. AN EDUCATION gets Actress and Top Ten. Zip for The Road, Bright Star and The Last Station...

The only film playing in UITA's league on the NBR list was Clint Eastwood's Invictus...which got the directing nod for him plus a Best Actor tie with Clooney for Morgan Freeman and Top Ten as well as a nod on their "Freedom of Expression" list...

Other TFF films making noise on NBR's lists...A Prophet (Best Foreign), The White Ribbon (Top Five Foreign)...and Revanche from TFF #35 (Top Five Foreign).

MIA...Precious got one notice for Gabby Sidibe's "Breakthrough Female Performance". So is the "Precious" boom over??? Backlash anyone?

...and nothing yet from Avatar, Nine, or The Lovely Bones (purportedly Nine and Bones have been "seen" by the NBR folks and Avatar still not so much).

New York and LA film critics choices are just around the corner...what will they tell us?

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #5...Pre-Turkey Edition

Jeff Bridges is red hot in the Best Actor race...

As we get ready for Thanksgiving and the obligatory over eating that comes with it, here are some opening thoughts from the Clearinghouse before we get to the breakdown of each category...

UP IN THE AIR is staying strong and is considered by many to be the favorite to win Best Picture at this point...still with Nine, Lovely Bones, Invictus and Avatar still out there to be debuted it's not yet time to place your bets.

Saw trailers on the tube for Invictus, Avatar and UITA since our last post...Invictus looked better than I thought it would. Avatar does not. Lovely Bones continues a slight swoon as we move closer to its release...Avatar has gathered some heat in the interim since Clearinghouse # 4. and Jeff Bridges and "Crazy Heart" has zoomed onto the radar from complete obscurity in the last three weeks...we'll see if he and the movie have any staying power.

This entry of the Clearinghouse adds "Rope of Silicon", The Envelope and Gurus of Gold to the database...Now on to the categories...(TFF PIX IN CAPS AND BOLD)

Best Picture: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) The Hurt Locker, 3) Nine, 4) Precious, 5) Invictus, 6) AN EDUCATION, 7) Up, 8) The Lovely Bones, 9) Avatar, 10) A Serious Man.

Others in play: Inglorious Basterds, A Single Man, BRIGHT STAR, THE LAST STATION, THE ROAD, Julie and Julia.

Comments: Biggest Momentum...Hurt Locker, Avatar, A Single Man (finally catching up to the heat in the Best Actor and Supporting Actress categories...which have actually cooled a little) and The Road gets a bump...maybe because it finally gets released this week. Tree of Life drops out of all categories (including director and script) as the various guessperts factor in its release date being set for 2010.

Best Direction: 1) JASON REITMAN, 2) Kathryn Bigelow, 3) Rob Marshall, 4) Clint Eastwood, 5) Lee Daniels.

Lurkers: James Cameron, Peter Jackson, LONE SCHERFIG, Quentin Tarantino, Coen Brothers.

Comments: James Cameron is getting some good buzz in the run up to the release of Avatar.

Best Actor: 1) Morgan Freeman, 2) GEORGE CLOONEY, 3) Colin Firth, 4) Jeff Bridges, 5) Daniel Day-Lewis.

Others: Jeremy Renner, VIGGO MORTENSEN, Matt Damon, Michael Stuhlbarg, Robert DeNiro.

Comments: Two weeks ago Jeff Bridges best shot at a nomination was thought to be in supporting for The Men Who Stare at Goats...man, these change fast! His performance has exploded out of almost nowhere to leap into the #4 spot as a likely nominee...And that's really hurt Jeremy Renner's campaign as he drops from nominee to a "maybe" in status. Also a nice couple of weeks for Viggo as he returns to consideration as does the serious man, Michael Stuhlbarg.

Best Actress: 1) CAREY MULLIGAN, 2) Meryl Streep, 3) Gabby Sidibe, 4) HELEN MIRREN, 5) ABBIE CORNISH.

Lurkers: Saroise Ronan, Marion Cotillard, Sandra Bullock, Maggie Gyllenhall, Michelle Monaghan.

Comments: Cornish returns to "nominee" status. Bullock and Gyllenhall both appear for the first time. And the fall of Hilary Swank and Amelia is complete as she drops completely off the chart.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christoph Waltz, 2) Stanley Tucci, 3) ALFRED MOLINA, 4) Matt Damon, 5) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER.

On the Outside Looking In: PETER SAARSGARD, Anthony Mackie, Christian McKay, Stanley Tucci (again), PAUL SCHNEIDER.

Dropping Out: JAMES MC AVOY.

Comment: Matt Damon is losing a little steam and Paul Schneider returns to the chart, replacing fellow TFF #36 potential nominee James McAvoy.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique, 2) Penelope Cruz, 3) ANNA KENDRICK, 4) Julianne Moore, 5) VERA FARMIGA.

Lurkers: Judi Dench, Susan Sarandon, Samantha Morton, Marion Cotillard, Mariah Carey.

Comments: Moore falls a little bit and Samantha Morton comes on strong for her work in The Messenger. Also, Mariah Carey enters the chart...getting great notice for a small part and looking nothing like herself...look out for her.

Dropping out: Rachel Wiesz and Melanie Laurent.

Adapted Screenplay: 1) Precious, 2) UP IN THE AIR, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) Invictus, 5) Nine

Others: The Lovely Bones, A Single Man, THE LAST STATION, Julie and Julia, Wild Things.

Dropping: THE ROAD.

Original Screenplay: 1) Up, 2) A Serious Man, 3) The Hurt locker, 4) 500 Days of Summer, 5) Inglorious Basterds.

And...BRIGHT STAR, District 9, It's Complicated, Avatar, THE WHITE RIBBON.

Dropping: Tree of Life and In the Loop.

Breakdown of THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES...Predicted Nominees: UP IN THE AIR-6, Nine, Precious, and Invictus-5, AN EDUCATION-4, and The Hurt Locker -3.

Nominations and Near Noms combined: Nine-7, UP IN THE AIR, Precious, AN EDUCATION, The Lovely Bones-6, The Hurt Locker, Invictus and A Single Man-5, Inglorious Basterds, BRIGHT STAR, THE LAST STATION, Julie and Julia-4

TFF#36...still 13 predicted nominations and 10 near noms...

The Clearinghouse will return next just prior to Christmas/New Years. Planning to spend New Year's Eve back in Telluride!

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #4

Welcome...So....Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, eh? Can you say "It's Complicated"?

Here's your latest update using the services of: And the Winner Is, Film Misery, In Contention, The Oscar Guy, Film Experience and Awards Circuit. We'll add Gurus of Gold (when it's gets serious0 The Envelope (LA Times...also, when it gets serious) and Rope of Silicon. Perhaps Hollywood Elsewhere as the season progresses toward Mar. 7

TFF #36 in CAPS and BOLD

Best Picture: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) Nine, 3) Hurt Locker, 4) Precious, 5) Invictus, 6) AN EDUCATION, 7) The Lovely Bones, 8) Up, 9) A Serious Man, 10) Avatar...also, 11) Inglorious Basterds, 12) The Tree of Life***13) THE LAST STATION, 14) BRIGHT STAR, 15) Julie and Julia. Dropping Out: A Single Man and Amelia.

Notes: Serious Man makes a move back up the chart as does The Last Station, Bright Star and Inglorious Basterds. Actually, Basterds made a significant move. Amelia's free fall continues. AND ***Tree of Life has been pushed t 2010...maybe it will be at TFF #37.

Best Director: 1) JASON REITMAN/UITA, 2) Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 3) Lee Daniels/Precious, 4) Rob Marshall/Nine, 5) Clint Eastwood/Invictus. Also: 6) Peter Jackson?Lovely Bones, 7) LONE SCHERFIG/EDUCATION, 8) Quentin Tarantino/Basterds, 9) Coen Bros./Serious Man, 10) Terrence Malick/Tree***(see previous note)...(next is MICHAEL HOFFMAN/LAST STATION). Dropping Out: None

Notes: Tarantino is the only big mover...Malick, again, is moving to 2010.

Best Actor: 1) Morgan Freeman/Invctus, 2) Colin Firth/Single Man, 3) GEORGE CLOONEY/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Daniel Day-Lewis/Nine, 5) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker. Also, 6) Robert DeNiro/Everybody's Fine, 7) Hal Holbrook/Evening Sun, 8) VIGGO MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, 9) Johnny Depp/Public Enemies, 10) Matt Damon/The Informant! Dropping Out: None

Notes: Colin Firth's assault continues. It's a surprise to me that the film hasn't gotten more play for Best Picture with the heat from his performance and Julianne Moore's (see below). Mortensen and Depp actually bump up a little and Matt Damon continues to fall substantially.

Best Actress: 1) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 2) Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia, 3) Gabrielle Sidibe, 4) HELEN MIRREN/THE LAST STATION, 5) Saroise Ronan/Lovely Bones. Also: 6) Marion Cotillard/Nine***, 7) ABBIE CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, 8) Michelle Monaghan/Trucker, 9) Hilary Swank/Amelia, 10) Michelle Pfeiffer and Annette Bening. Dropping Out: Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces

Notes: Helen Mirren continues to be hot and Hilary Swank's Amelia continues its dive. We include Marion Cotillard's performance from Nine in the lead category, although she has votes in both lead and supporting for the same role. We think this is her most likely category placement.

Best Supporting actor: 1) Christoph Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) Stanley Tucci/Lovely Bones, 3) Matt Damon/Invictus, 4) ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, 5) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/THE LAST STATION. Also: 6) PETER SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION, 7) Anthony Mackie/Hurt Locker, 8) JAMES MC AVOY/THE LAST STATION, 9) Stanley Tucci/Julie and Julia, 10) 4 guys tied here. Dropping Out: Richard Kind & ROBERT DUVALL.

Notes: Mackey continues to gain ground and Stanley Tucci is to be red hot as he appears on the list in 2 places (although I suspect he'll get the nomination for Lovely Bones). Duvall drops out...too bad, it's a really fine performance. And James McAvoy is getting split votes in lead and supporting. We suspect he'll end up campaigning as a supporting candidate.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique/Precious, 2) Julianne Moore/Single Man, 3) Penelope Cruz/Nine, 4) ANNA KENDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 5) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR***. Also: 6) Judy Dench/Nine, 7) Susan Sarandon/Lovely Bones, 8) Rachel Weisz/Lovely Bones, 9) Marion Cotillard/Public Enemies, 10) Melanie Laurent/Inglorius Basterds. Dropping Out; Nicole Kidman and Catherine Keener.

Notes: ***Farmiga makes a move, partly because she also is getting attention in the lead category for this role. We suspect she'll end up in supporting as the season progresses. The first time both UITA ladies move into the "nomination" category. Julianne Moore's rise continues to be meteoric. Laurent returns to the bottom of the list as a part of the overall Inglorious Basterds boomlet over the past couple of weeks.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) Precious, 3) Lovely Bones, 4) AN EDUCATION, 5) Invictus. Also: 6) Nine, 7) THE LAST STATION, 8) A Single Man, 9) Julie & Julia, 10) THE ROAD.

Best Original Screenplay: 1) Up, 2) A Serious Man, 3) The Hurt locker, 4) 500 Days (of Summer), 5) BRIGHT STAR. Also: 6) Inglorious Basterds, 7) THE WHITE RIBBON, 8) District Nine, 9) In the Loop, 10) Tree of Life*** (see above).

Notes: Thanks to Awards Circuit and Film experience, we can expand the screenplay list past 8 possibles...barely.

TFF #36 films account for 13 "Big 8" nominations...up one from the last post and 10 "lurking"up 4 from the last post.

Breakdown: "Nominations": UP IN THE AIR-6, Precious & Invictus-5, AN EDUCATION, Nine, Lovely Bones and Hurt Locker-4.

Combined Noms and Lurks: Nine & The Lovely Bones-7, UP IN THE AIR & AN EDUCATION-6, Hurt Locker, Precious, Invictus, Inglorious Basterds and THE LAST STATION-5. Julie & Julia-4. Serious Man, Single man and BRIGHT STAR-3.

Final Thoughts: I just have a feeling that Lovely Bones (can you say "King Kong"?) and Invictus (can you say "Changeling"?) are going to fade. I think Nine is a solid contender.

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #2 and #3

Christopher Plummer and Helen Mirren in "The Last Station"...saw it at the Telluride Film Festival and now it's getting some serious Oscar attention...for Mirren, Plummer, McAvoy and Giamatti...

Well....This should be the third update, but the one set for Sept. 29 just never got put together...so this will be a combination of #2 and #3...

TFF #36 pics in CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture...

1) UP IN THE AIR

2) Nine

3) The Hurt Locker

4) Precious

5) Invictus

6) AN EDUCATION

6) The Lovely Bones

8) Up

9) Avatar

10) A Serious Man

11) The Tree of Life

12) A Single Man

13) Amelia

14) Inglorious Basterds

15) Julie and Julia

Gone from Post #1: Capitalism: A Love Story, Public Enemies, THE ROAD, The Informant!, and BRIGHT STAR

Comments: Since the first post 5 weeks ago, Up in the Air has zoomed to the top of the list. An Education has held held on solidly. But The Road and Bright Star have lost their luster. Personally I am not really surprised by the dip for Bright Star...thought it was pretty ponderous...but I am a real advocate for The Road...It might be the Best Movie of the year. Other notes...Invictus has lost some steam as has Lovely Bones and Amelia...(Lord, Amelia is taking a nose-dive...pardon the pun) one gets the sense that they may not live up to the hype...which also doesn't bode well for Nine (but I finally saw the trailer...and it looks PHENOMENAL). Finally, Serious Man and Single Man both gained some pretty substantial ground.

Best Director:

1) JASON REITMAN/UITA

2) Lee Daniels/Precious

3) Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker

4) Rob Marshall/Nine

5) Clint Eastwood/Invictus

6) Peter Jackson/Bones

7) LONE SCHERFIG/EDUCATION

8) Terrance Malick/Tree

9) J. and E. Coen/Serious Man

9) Quentin Tarantino/Inglorious

Dropping Out: James Cameron and JANE CAMPION

Notes: Reitman was the big gainer over the month-plus (no surprise there). Rob Marshall suffered the largest decline on the list...making the above comment about Nine seem a lot more trenchant.

Best Actor:

1) Morgan Freeman/Invictus

2) GEORGE CLOONEY/UITA

3) Colin Firth/Single Man

4) Daniel Day-Lewis

5) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker

6) Robert DeNiro/Everybody's Fine

7) Matt Damon/Informant!

8) Hal Holbrook/That Evening Sun

9) VIGGO MORTENSEN/ROAD

10) Johnny Depp/Public Enemies

Gone: BEN WHISHAW and Sean Penn

Comment: Clooney is still riding the wave from Telluride. Freeman continues to be on top, but has lost some luster. Colin Firth is red hot after Toronto as is his film "A Single Man". Also with some heat is Jeremy Renner as "Hurt Locker" continues to linger from this summer's releases as the most likely to pick up some Oscar love.

Best Actress:

1) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION

2) Meryl Streep/Julie and Julia

3) Gabrielle Sidibe/Precious

4) HELEN MIRREN/THE LAST STATION

5) Saroise Ronan/Lovely Bones

6) ABBIE CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR

7) Hillary Swank/Amelia

8) Michelle Monaghan/Trucker

9) Marion Cotillard/Nine

10) Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces

Gone: Michelle Pfeiffer, AUDREY TAUTOU

Comment: Mulligan continues to be regarded as a lock and Dame Helen Mirren is the hottest mover right now after Sony Pictures Classics has picked up the distribution rights to The Last Station (and after having just won the Best Actress prize this past weekend at the Rome Film Festival). SPC reportedly has promised an Oscar campaign as part of that deal...which also bodes well for Last Station in other categories...like for Christopher Plummer and James McAvoy as well as some tech consideration. Screenplay and Best Pic? Who knows. Depends on the quality of such wait and sees as Invictus, Nine and The Lovely Bones. Although if Amelia is an indication....Finally, Abbie Cornish drops into the "lurker" category...I personally am guessing that trend will continue as Bright Star fades...

Best Supporting Actor:

1) Christoph Waltz/Inglorious Basterds

2) Stanley Tucci/Lovely Bones

3) ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION

4) Matt Damon/Invictus

5) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/LAST STATION

6) JAMES MC AVOY/LAST STATION

7) PETER SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION

8) ROBERT DUVALL/THE ROAD

9) Richard Kind/Serious Man

9) Anthony Mackie/Hurt Locker

Gone: PAUL SCHNEIDER, KODI SMIT-MC PHEE, Jeff Bridges, Richard Gere

Comment: Last year it was the Best Actress category that held the potential to be dominated by Telluride connections...and NONE OF THEM ENDED UP NOMINATED...That chance this year exists in this category. And I suspect that the shutout of last year will not be repeated. Who's hot??? Plummer and McAvoy again from Last Station...but Plummer really should be in the Lead category...not here. Come on SPC...Waltz continues to be regarded as a shoo-in...Duvall has picked up a little steam (it's a terrific performance). Who's cooling??? Damon and Kind.

Best Supporting Actress:

1) MoNique/Precious

2) Penelope Cruz/nine

3) ANNA KENDRICK/UITA

4) Julianne Moore/Single Man

5) Judi Dench/Nine

6) Susan Sarndon/Lovely Bones

7) Marion Cotillard/Public Enemies

8) Rachel Wiesz/Lovely Bones

9) Nicole Kidman/Nine

10) Catherine Keener/Wild Things

Gone: Sigouney Weaver, VERA FARMIGA, Jessica Chastain, Melanie Laurent

Comment: Seems like a category searching for nominees. almost everyone has lost some steam from our first post 5 weeks ago...except Kendrick and Moore...who is the hottest mover for Single Man.

Adapted Screenplay:

1) UP IN THE AIR

2) Precious

3) AN EDUCATION

4) The Lovely Bones

5) Invictus

5) A Single Man

Others: Nine, Where the Wild Things Are

Comment: The potential nominees in both screenwriting categories continue to be incredibly narrow with only 8 adapted scripts and 8 original scripts getting mentioned across the 6-7 sources we're currently using. In adapted...UITA and Education are up slightly...Precious and Lovely Bones are down slightly and Invictus and Single Man appear for the first time.

Original Screenplay:

1) Up

2) A Serious Man

3) The Hurt Locker

4) BRIGHT STAR

5) 500 Days of Summer

Also: The Tree of Life, Inglorious Basterds, and District 9

Comment: None

Overall:

TFF #36 films sit with 12 "nominations" in the Big Eight categories with another 6 "lurking".

The Breakdown:

5 "Noms": UP IN THE AIR, Precious, Invictus, and Nine

4 "Noms": AN EDUCATION, The Hurt Locker, The Lovely Bones

3 "Noms": A Single Man

Combined "noms" and "Lurkings"

Nine (9)

The Lovely Bones (7)

AN EDUCATION (6)

UP IN THE AIR, The Hurt Locker, Precious, Invictus (5)

A Serious Man, A Single Man, Inglorious Basterds (4)

THE LAST STATION, The Tree of Life (3)

BRIGHT STAR, THE ROAD, Up, Julie and Julia, Amelia (2)

Final Thoughts: Up in the Air continues to go like gangbusters and The Last Station has gathered a lot of heat in the last month (and if you read this blog at all during the festival, you know we were impressed with it). Hate that The Road is losing steam. I still think it's likely the best film of the year.

TFF #36 and the Oscar Clearinghouse #1 for 2009

Will everyone in this picture be nominated for Best Supporting Actress? (the female cast of "Nine")

Continuing what we started in this space last year, we'll devote some time and energy to compiling the best of the Oscar guessperts for the Big Eight categories from now til the ceremony in February...(Helfrich's..we'd love to be there!)...and we'll highlight the films getting the Oscar buzz that showed at the Telluride Film Festival. So lets' get started!

The Early Line on Best Picture...(note, the Academy goes to 10 nominees this year...uh...OK...)

Leaders: (with Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD):

Invictus (Eastwood directs Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela with Matt Damon...http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1057500/),

Nine (Daniel Day-Lewis and women...many, many women in Rob Marshall's film version of the stage musical based on Fellini's "8 1/2" http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0875034/).

Precious (Lee Daniels directs this Sundance favorite...http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0929632/).

The Lovely Bones (Peter Jackson directs the adaptation of the novel http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0380510/)

AN EDUCATION (Lone Scherfig directs Carey Mulligan, Peter Saarsgard and Alfred Molina in this coming of age story set in the 60's in England...a lot of buzz from Telluride! and it was a hit at Sundance too! http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1174732/ ).

The Hurt Locker (Kathryn Bigelow's consensus critical darling from earlier this summer http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0887912/).

Up (can Pixar get a Best Pic nom for this animated film? The expansion to ten slots makes it more likely...and it's a good movie too! http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1049413/)

UP IN THE AIR (Jason Reitman's follow-up to Juno getting great traction from both Telluride and Toronto...Clooney also looking good for a nomination...see later http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1193138/).

Amelia (Hilary Swank as Amelia Earhart...thought this would be in Telluride, I was wrong. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1129445/).

THE ROAD ( John Hillcoat directs Viggo Mortensen in a post apocalyptic America created by Cormac McCarthy http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0898367/).

Also in play: Avatar (James Cameron), A Serious Man (the Coen Brothers), BRIGHT STAR (Jane Campion), Capitalism: A Love Story (Michael Moore), and Public Enemies (Michael Mann...really???)

Comment: As hot as "Up in the Air" has been at both Telluride and Toronto, look for significant upward movement for all involved by the next post.

Director: In the lead: Clint Eastwood-Invictus, Rob Marshall-Nine, Lee Daniels-Precious, Peter Jackson-The Lovely Bones, And Kathryn Bigelow-The Hurt Locker. Lurking: LONE SCHERFIG-AN EDUCATION, Mira Nair-Amelia, Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0478304/), James Cameron-Avatar, and JANE CAMPION-BRIGHT STAR. (no Reitman???)

Actor: Morgan Freeman-Invictus, GEORGE CLOONEY-UP IN THE AIR, Daniel Day-Lewis-Nine, VIGGO MORTENSEN-THE ROAD (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1130080/), and Matt Damon-The Informant. Lurkers: Johnny Depp-Public Enemies (again...really???), Jeremy Renner-The Hurt Locker, Sean Penn-The Tree of Life, BEN WHISHAW-BRIGHT STAR, Michael Stuhlbarg-A Serious Man.

Actress: Meryl Streep-Julie and Julia (she's really good! http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1135503/), CAREY MULLIGAN-AN EDUCATION, Saroise Ronan-The Lovely Bones, Hilary Swank-Amelia, and ABBIE CORNISH-BRIGHT STAR (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0810784/). LurkeeLoos: Gabby Sidibe-Precious, AUDREY TAUTOU-COCO BEFORE CHANEL , Michelle Pfeiffer-Cheri, Michelle Monaghan-Trucker, Penelope Cruz-Broken Embraces.

Supporting Actor: Matt Damon-Invictus ( a double nom?), ALFRED MOLINA-AN EDUCATION, Christoph Waltz-Inglourious Basterds (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0361748/) Stanley Tucci-The Lovely Bones, and Richard Kind-A Serious Man (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1019452/). On the cusp: Richard Gere-Amelia, KODI SMIT-MC PHEE-THE ROAD, Jeff Bridges-The Men Who Stare at Goats, PAUL SCHNEIDER-BRIGHT STAR, PETER SAARSGARD-AN EDUCATION (ought to be in the lead category).

Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique-Precious, Penelope Cruz-Nine, Judi Dench-Nine, Marion Cotillard-Nine, Susan Sarandon- The Lovely Bones. Also close: ANNA KENDRICK-UP IN THE AIR, Rachel Weisz-The Lovely Bones, Jessica Chastain-The Tree of Life, Sigourney Weaver-Avatar, and VERA FARMIGA-UP IN THE AIR.

Comment: Is it possible that this category could end up with all five nominees from "Nine"? or Mo'Nique plus 4 from "Nine"?

Adapted Screenplay: Kerrine Jenkins-Precious, NICK HORNBY-AN EDUCATION, Fran Walsh, Phillipa Boyens and Peter Jackson-The Lovely Bones, Anthony Peckham-Invictus, and JOE PENHALL-THE ROAD. Mentions: Michael Tolkin and Anthony Minghella-Nine, JASON REITMAN AND SHELDON TURNER-UP IN THE AIR, James Schamus-Taking Woodstock, Scott Z. Burns-The Informant!

Original Screenplay: Pete Docter and Bob Peterson, JANE CAMPION-BRIGHT STAR, Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber-500 Days of Summer (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1022603/), Mark Boal-The Hurt Locker, and Joel Coen and Ethan Coen-A Serious Man. Other mentions: Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life, Ron Bass and Anna Hamilton Phelan, and Tony Gilroy-Duplicity (really???)

Other notes: Most "noms" on the first chart...6 for "Nine" and "The Lovely Bones". "Nine"also leads in the nom/lurk category with 8.

Five Telluride films seem to have at least some heat now: An Education, Up in the Air, The Road, Bright Star and Coco Before Chanel with a combined total of 11 "nominations" predicted in the big eight categories and another 11 "possibles". An Education leads with 4 noms and 2 possibles followed by Up in the Air with 2 and 3, The Road with 3 and 1, Bright Star with 2 and 4 and Coco with 1 possible.

Overall..as noted Nine and The Lovely Bones are out front with significant expectations for Invictus with 5 noms, Precious with 4 and 1, The Hurt Locker with 3 and 1, Amelia with 2 and 3 and A Serious Man with 2 and 2. We'll see what happens when the studios whose strategy has been to hold off from the festival circuit release Nine, Invictus, and The Lovely Bones...

And, of course, there are always the tech awards that will add to nomination totals and the foreign films Telluride films that could make some noise in this category include: A Prophet, Vincere, and Samson and Delilah.

Back in 2-3 weeks with an update!

TF#36 Post Mortem

Welllll...so how'd we do in the run up to this year's Telluride Film Festival??? The answer is "so-so". I felt like the reported films that we sniffed out we pretty much got right...even when we waffled. Let me explicate.

I think the blog can justifiably claim we got "Bright Star," "Life During Wartime," "The Road," "The Last Station" (at the last minute), and "Vincere" (also at the last minute). At least to some extent we can claim we got it right on "An Education" (despite the uncertainty because it had been a Sundance film) and also "Up in the Air".

I also feel that we certainly shaded the likelihood of "The White Ribbon," "Coco Before Chanel"and "A Prophet".

But we did whiff big time on "Amelia," "Broken Promises," "Sympathy for Delicious," and "Precious" (like "An Education", this was a Sundance entry). And we were totally wrong on "Lebanon."

But we figured out "Bad Lieutenant" late in the game, and were redeemed by the sneak of "My Son, My Son..." Our mistake was underestimating how much Werner Herzog was going to be a part of TFF #36.

All in all, it seemed like we got better at the "reportage" part this year, but were just about as bad as last year in terms of the "educated" guess work. We were thrown by the absence this year of Fox Searchlight...particularly since they had been well represented in recent festivals (i.e. "Slumdog")...and the demise of Paramount Vantage and Warner Independent also presented challenges to our guess work.

Finally a shout out to the new folks who were kind enough to read/follow the blog this year and drop a comment or two along the way. Made us feel like we were actually doing something worthwhile rather just amusing ourselves...so thanks...Kelly, Gant, Jen, Jarrette, Matt, Rich, Haywood, M. Austin and Reilly.

Later today...Oscar Clearinghouse #1 or 2009...I'll let some of you off the hook from the mandatory email alert for the new posts!

And Home Again...

Telluride's 36th Film Festival is done and the Pattersons are back in the Oklahoma Panhandle. We returned to the "real world" today as we both were back in our classrooms. I turn my attention now to One Act Play competition and the first speech tournament of the year.

This year's fest was amazing, not only for the films we saw, but also for the people we met and got a chance to interact with. And it seems that there is the chance that some of those interactions may lead to continued friendships and relationships. I really do think I will talk to Ken Burns again in the near future and maybe get to be a part (a small part) of his Dust Bowl project in some fashion...who knows what that may be.

Kristy and I met a lovely couple from LA that we really seemed to kind of strike a chord with...and he's really kind of a big deal in the movie biz...

Got to meet and talk with the stunning Laura Linney...beautiful, talented and gracious!

Met Curtis Hanson...writer, director..."LA Confidential" one of the top ten movie of the 90's.

Got pix of Nicolas Cage and Viggo Mortensen...

Talked with Oscar nominee Brenda Blethyn.

Sat with directors Jason Reitman (talked to him three times) and Alexander Payne. Sat behind Sid Ganis (Pres. of "The Academy").

Got to ask a question during the first Q & A following the first presentation in the world of "Up in the Air" and make a subsequent joke that most of the room seemed to think was actually funny.

And don't forget the movies...really impressed by "Life During Wartime" (maybe an original screenplay nom for Todd Solondz...although the acting is top notch across the board, it's hard to imagine the Academy embracing any one of the performers for an acting nom. They should, though, because the ensemble is amazing).

"The Road"...Viggo Mortensen may be the Best Actor front runner for this...and I thought it was a stunning film.

Jason Reitman's "Up in the Air"...George Clooney will join Mortensen in the Best Actor race and it will also get a slew of other nominations (my first guess is 8 total noms).

"Farewell" a great French espionage thriller...really well done.

And "The Last Station"...excellent performances by Christopher Plummer, Helen Mirren and James McAvoy...although it may suffer from the appearance of "Up in the Air" because UITA sucked so much oxygen up and out of the festival for a lot of the other films and also complicating matters, the presence of "Bright Star" another period costume piece that was getting a lot of attention (Abbie Cornish especially getting some early Oscar mention)...but for my money "Last Station" was the much better film.

And then there is "An Education" which seemed to be a real favorite of fest goers when you'd ask them what they'd seen and liked last weekend...I thought it was a good movie, but certainly not a great movie. Carey Mulligan (who plays the lead in "An Education" is also in many conversations as an Oscar contender.

2009 Film List from Telluride (in order that we saw them):

An Education: 2 1/2 stars

Coco Before Chanel: 2 stars

Life During Wartime: 4 Stars

Farewell: 3 Stars

Up in the Air 3 1/2 Stars

The Last Station: 3 Stars

Room and a Half: 2 Stars

Bright Star: 2 1/2 Stars

London River 2 Stars

The Road: 4 Stars (up from an original 3 1/2)

Bad Lieutenant: 1 1/2 Stars

Things I missed, that I really regret: A Prophet, Vincere, The White Ribbon and The Red Riding Trilogy (which got huge buzz through the weekend).

This summer included a trip to the National Speech Tournament where I got to judge a final round national championship for the first time. The New York trip of a lifetime. And concluded with the Telluride Film Festival...

I've said it before...I can't believe I get to do this...

In the next few days I will try to put together a post that collects reviews/reactions to this year's TFF films and then will begin the transition of this blog into The Oscar Clearinghouse with emphasis on the films of Telluride...and there will be a Telluride influence on this year's Oscar race! Bet on it.

Day Four...And It's a Wrap!

Me And Curtis Hanson (LA Confidential) at the picnic

Viggo Mortensen between screenings of "The Road"...Oscar Nom??? I'd say yes.

Nicolas Cage and Werner Herzog at the picnic before "Bad Lieutenant"

Ken Burns signs our books and discovers we may be source material for his next project. No, really! See below.

Kelsey, me, Kristy and Merri with our small scale "class photo" for TFF #36

The fourth and final day of the 36th Telluride Film Festival was heavy on festival and light on film...but, personally a very fulfilling day.

Started the day with Ken Burns' book signing...got an autographed copy of "National Parks" that coincides with his PBS series in 3 weeks. And...when he asked where we were from, he lit up. Seems his next documentary project is about the Dust Bowl...and when we revealed we were from the bulls eye of the Dust Bowl, Burns was very animated...took our name, numbers and email address. An associate producer is set to contact us in the next couple of weeks. Holy Crap!

Then...on to the Labor Day film fest picnic and a really tasty lunch hosted by Omaha Steaks...good food! And good conversation...a wonderful conversation with a Colorado couple who has two kids in the Yale School of Drama...very nice. Nicolas Cage showed up for a presentation...he's here with "Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans"...more later.

Ran across new friends Mark Helfrich and his wife, whom we met the first day, and compared notes of movies we had seen and opinions of them...Mark is a film editor of some renown...he's a serious deal...IMDB him, you'll be impressed. Here's his link to IMDB: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0375068/. We're invited to their home in LA for their Oscar party...cause I'm sure we'll be in LA...but , ain't that cool?

Noticed that Kris had offered our seats as we were ready to leave to film director and writer Curtis Hanson...he directed "LA Confidential" ...only one of my favorite movies ever made...ever! Got a chance to talk to him for a few moments. And a pic!

As we left, got a chance to congratulate Oscar nominated actress Brenda Blethyn on her "London River" performance.

Then to the Palm for "The Road". Viggo Moretensen sighting and picture. Then the movie...Brutal, harrowing, disturbing and a very nearly great film. It's hard to watch...but a really stunning film. Mortensen's performance...YES!..Other standouts are Robert Duvall and Charlize Theron. There's been a lot of buzz for Kodi Smit-McPhee...but I think he's just OK in the role of the boy....also John Hillcoat's direction is eloquent. 3 and 1/2 stars...

Then to The Galaxy for "Bad Lieutenant"...and long story short...It's bad! (in the traditional sense, meaning not good). 1 and 1/2 stars. Worst thing I saw this weekend.

As always...things I wanted to get and didn't: "The White Ribbon," "Vincere" and "A Prophet". Thought they'd be TBAed today and there weren't. Thank God for Netflix!

4 days and 12 films...some great and others less so. Spoke with Laura Linney this weekend and have the picture to prove it and tonight Ken Burns has my contact info in his pocket...oh man....

Top picks: "Life During Wartime," "The Road," "Up in the Air," "Farewell" and "The Last Station".

Lots of people liked "An Education" I thought it was OK. Lots of people loved "Bright Star"...again...OK

Biggest buzz on something I did not see...the "Red Riding" trilogy. It seemed to be a big hit with fest-goers.

Started the weekend with some goals and they all happened. And to a much greater degree that I thought possible. Love this weekend, this festival and this spot on the planet. Start the countdown to Telluride Film Festival #37!

Viggo Mortensen and Nic Cage sighted and pix taken. Talked to Curtis Hanson writer/ director of LA Confidential. One of my all time favorite films. Amazing!

Just talked to Ken Burns about his next project. He took my name and number. No kidding!

Day Three

A shorter day of film today as we give our evening in Telluride over to our hosts who so graciously make it possible for this to occur each year.

And a tough day of film going it was...Started off the day with "Room and a Half" the Russian memoriam to poet Joseph Brodsky (met the director at the Patron Brunch on Friday) ..some clever animation and some arresting images...but , Good Lord, the film was slow. And that turned out to be the theme of the day! SLOOOOOWWW.... 2 Stars out of 4

Second film was the much anticipated Jane Campion entry "Bright Star"...poet John Keats ill-fated romance with Fanny Brawne. Abbie Cornish: Good, Costumes:Good...the rest...SLOOOOOWWW. 2 and 1/2 Stars of 4.

Third film: Oscar Nominee Brenda Blethyn in "London River"...she's good but the film is predictable and SLOOOOWWWW! 2 stars out of 4>

Ultimately, today's films paled in comparison to yesterday's line-up. One hopes that the last day makes up for that.

Tomorrow sees us hoping to get in "The Road" and maybe "A Prophet" and "Vincere"...and a Viggo Mortensen sighting as well as a Nic Cage sighting...and Daryl Hannah would be a bonus! And purportedly Curtis Hanson is in town...writer/director of "LA Confidential"...one of the best movies in the last fifteen years...would love to meet him too!)

My fave so far...Todd Solondz's "Life During Wartime" and Jason Reitman's "Up in the Air" (sat next to him during the "Bright Star" presentation this afternoon...can you believe it???)

Can't wait for Monday...but so sad it's here so soon!

And a quick note to Joel, Heather and Natausha...as you may have guessed...Mrs. P and I are "off the clock". Love!

Just spoke to Jason Reitman so hope that repeats the magic that Juno had 2 years ago after our conversation here.

Day Two

Unbelievable....

Had a tremendous day of film here in the San Juan Mountains...

Started off the day with Todd Solondz's "Life During Wartime"...Great film! Incredible performances across the board...just amazing...standouts: Shirley Henderson, Allison Janney, Cirian Hinds, Paul Ruebens, Michael K. Williams, Ally Sheedy and Rich Pecci...but really...the entire ensemble is phenomenal...I'm betting half way thru that this is my favorite film of the festival...and today was a great day for films. 4 stars out of 4...

Next up was "Farewell" a French film that we just sort of added as a filler between "Life" and "Up in the Air"...and...what a great film! A true life story of Cold War intrigue and masterfully done! Super performances from leads Emir Kusturica and Guillaume Canet with great support from veteran Fred Ward as Ronald Reagan and Willem Dafoe...Stunningly good movie! 3 and 1/2 stars out of 4...It's really good.

Then, amazingly, we were in the crowd to see the World Sneak Premiere of Jason Reitman's "Up in the Air" starring George Clooney. It gets surreal here. Sat two rows behind Reitman, two seats to the right of TFF 36 Guest Director Alexander Payne (About Schmidt, Sideways, Election) and right behind AMPAS (that's the Oscars people) President Sid Ganis. Soooo..the movie is a winner...a worthy follow up to his success with "Juno". It's a more mature film. And it was a hoot to see how nervous Reitman was...not that surprising,though, considering how high the expectations are for this film. But it's a winner! Highlight is that I got to ask a question during the Q & A and then also got in a joke that actually made Ganis, Payne and Reitman himself laugh. Seriously, since I've actually spoken to Laura Linney and made Jason Reitman laugh this weekend...I think I could die happy. Clooney's great, Vera Farmiga..great, Anna Kendrick...really great...Amy Morton (saw her in New York two months ago in August:Osage County) great... Overall 3 and 1/2 stars ...GO SEE IT!

And then we concluded the day with "The Last Station". Christopher Plummer, Helen Mirren, Paul Giamatti and James Mc Avoy bring us the realization of writer/director Michael Hoffman's adaptation of a novel about the last year of Leo Tolstoy's life. And it rocked! Plummer...great, Mirren...great and McAvoy better than he's ever been. It's a wonderful performance as Tolstoy's secretary and the audience's representative. 3 stars. The evening topped off with a Q & A with director Hoffman and Oscar winner Dame Helen...and a sighting of Dame Helen's husband as we left the theater, director Taylor Hackford.

An amazing day of film in Telluirde...Can't wait to see what tomorrow holds!

Day One

Patron Brunch...Check...good food and good conversation...talked with Laura Linney...see above. Also talked to Russian director Andrey Khrzhanovsky here with his film "A Room and a Half"... engaging fellow. May try to get his film in tomorrow.

Today' s films: "An Education" Good performances from Carey Mulligan and Alfred Molina...the picture itself...so-so...2 1/2 stars (out of 4)

"Coco Before Chanel" I'm an Audrey Tautou fan...but...film starts well and then about half hour in, the slog begins...2 stars tops.

Tomorrow: Probably "Life During Wartime" and "The Last Station" (dame Helen Mirren is supposed to do a Q &A after). AND FINALLY..."Up in the Air" will sneak preview here tomorrow afternoon...my sources on this are really good...Jason Reitman expected to be here to intro the film...I'll be there for sure.

Patron Brunch starts with a conversation with Laura Linney. How cool.

And now, on to the SHOW

After the ten hour drive we are here.

Ready to grapple with the next four days and very excited about them and the chance to see great film. On tap: A Prophet, Vincere, The Road, Bad Lieutenant, Coco Before Chanel, The Last Station and many others.

Have already spotted documentarian Ken Burns (personal hero) and critic/reporter/bloggers Anne Thompson and Eugene Hernandez.

Girding up for the Patron Brunch in the morning at Skyline Ranch. Purportedly Viggo Mortensen (The Road) and Nicolas Cage (Bad Lieutenant) are already in town and we hope to see them there.

Finally...still pretty sure Jason Reitman's "Up in the Air" will "sneak" on Sunday or Monday...and can't wait to see it.

Can't believe I get to do this...

Thanks Larry and Mitzi...

Watching Ken Burns play pool

And Away We Go

Leaving in about an hour. Word is that the official schedule will be released at noon today...but if you're following the chatter on the web you probably already have a pretty good idea of what's likely to show up...

But if not...here is an incomplete list of what to expect...

"Coco Before Chanel" (starring the incandescent Audrey Tautou), "Bright Star" (new from Jane Campion of "The Piano" fame), "Life During Wartime" (Todd Soldonz's newest...with Ally Sheedy and Allison Janney among others), "A Prophet" (Cannes entry), "The Road" (Viggo Mortensen in Cormac McCarthy's post-apocalyptic story...also has Guy Pearce, Charlize Theron, and Robert Duvall), "Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans" (Werner Herzog directs Nicolas Cage in a re-imagining of the Abel Ferrera original), "Up in the Air" (Jason Reitman's post-Juno project starring George Clooney), "An Education" ( a Sundance favorite with Peter Sarrsgard) and "The Last Station" with an incredible cast: Christopher Plummer, Helen Mirren, Paul Giamatti and James McAvoy....

Can't wait to hit the road, and hope to see and talk to some of you in Telluride!

One Day

Leaving in less than 24 hours and the rumors and info are flying fast and furious about this year's lineup...

Hollywood Elsewhere's Jeffrey Wells continues to add to the list he says will be there...including today's additions of "A Prophet, " "Vincere'" and "Life During Wartime". See it at: http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/

The net also is pulsing with a rumor that Michael Moore's "Capitalism: A Love Story" will show up.

The Scott Pilgrim rumor from yesterday has been debunked in a number of quarters...

Two Days

Well, some interesting tidbits here and there tonight...

Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere all but confirms: "Up in the Air," "The Road," "Bad Lieutenant," and "An Education" and claims that the "other" Herzog film..."My Son, My Son..." will NOT be playing Telluride.

At this point "Up in the Air" seems to be a lock...we've seen some other pretty compelling evidence that it's a-happenin'.

Additionally, the internet has been burning up the last 24 hours or so with the rumor that Edgar Wright's "Scott Pilgrim vs. The World" with Michael Cera will pop up in Telluride...we think that rumor is more than just a rumor!

As to "Amelia" and "Broken Embraces" nary a breath...so maybe I don't know what I'm talking about after all!