Hello Monday...Tomorrow brings the nominations for the 89th Academy Awards. The FAC Final is here for you.
Below are the final computations for the Film Awards Clearinghouse for 2016. Some reminders...
I think this my ninth year to attempt some level of this and I have found that The FAC metric will be somewhere between 75-80% accurate today. In categories that The FAC misses going 5 for 5, about 75% of the time, the nominee that "steals" the spot is the #6 ranked film/performer. The most troubling categories seem to always be the Short form films as well as Original Score and Song.
THE FINAL FAC FOR OSCAR #89
As always, I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
TFF #43 films are in
Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Lion (6)
6) Hell or High Water (5)
7) Hidden Figures (8)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (7)
9) Fences (9)
10) Nocturnal Animals (10)
11) Silence (11)
12) Loving (12)
BEST DIRECTION
1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)
2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (2)
3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester (3)
4) Denis Villeneuve/Arrival (4)
5) Garth Davis/Lion (5)
6) Martin Scorsese/Silence (8)
7) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (7)
8) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge (6)
9) Denzel Washington/Fences (9)
10) Tom Ford/Nocturnal Animals (NR)
BEST ACTRESS
1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Amy Adams/Arrival (3)
4) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (5)
5) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (4)
6) Annette Bening/20th Century Women (6)
7) Ruth Negga/Loving (7)
8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (8)
9) Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train (10)
10) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)
BEST ACTOR
1) Casey Affleck/Manchester (1)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)
4) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (4)
5) Viggo Mortensen/Capt. Fantastic (5)
6) Joel Edgerton/Loving (7)
7) Tom Hanks/Sully (6)
8) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals (NR)
9) Sunny Pawar/Lion (NR)
10) Andrew Garfield/Silence (8)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester (2)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (3)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (5)
6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (6)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (8)
9) Lily Gladstone/Certain Women (10)
10) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (10)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester (5)
6) Aaron Taylor-Johnson/Nocturnal Animals (9)
7) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (6)
9) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (8)
10) Issey Ogata/Silence (10)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Moonlight (1)
2) Arrival (2)
3) Hidden Figures (5)
4) Lion (4)
5) Fences (3)
6) Nocturnal Animals (6)
7) Loving (7)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (8)
9) Silence (9)
10) Deadpool (10)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) La La Land (2)
3) Hell or High Water (3)
4) The Lobster (4)
5) Captain Fantastic (6)
6) 20th Century Women (5)
7) Zootopia (8)
8) Jackie (7)
9) I, Daniel Blake (9)
10) Toni Erdmann (NR)
FILM EDITING
1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Arrival (3)
4) Hacksaw Ridge (5)
5) Manchester by the Sea (6)
6) Hell or High Water (4)
7) Lion (NR)
8) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
9) Silence (7)
10) Rogue One (10)
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) La La Land (1)
2) Arrival (3)
3) Moonlight (4)
4) Silence (2)
5) Lion (6)
6) Nocturnal Animals (5)
7) Hell or High Water (NR)
8) Jackie (7)
9) Live by Night (8)
10) Hail, Caesar (9)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1) Toni Erdmann (1)
2) Land of Mine (3)
3) The Salesman (2)
4) A Man Called Ove (4)
5) My Life as a Zucchini (5)
6) Tanna (6)
7) Paradise (7)
8) It's Only the End of the World (8)
9) The King's Choice (9)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Zootopia (1)
2) Kubo and the Two Strings (2)
3) Moana (3)
4) The Red Turtle (4)
5) My Life as a Zucchini (5)
6) Finding Dory (6)
7) Miss Hoksauki (7)
8) Sing (9)
9) The Little Prince (8)
10) Your Name (10)
BEST DOCUMENTARY
1) OJ: Made in America (1)
2) 13th (2)
3) I Am Not Your Negro (3)
4) Cameraperson (5)
5) Life Animated (8)
6) Weiner (4)
7) Fire at Sea (6)
8) Gleason (7)
9) The Ivory Game (9)
10) Tower (NR)
ORIGINAL SCORE
1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (3)
3) Lion (2)
4) The BFG (4)
5) Jackie (5)
6) Rogue One (6)
7) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
9) Kubo and the Two Strings (NR)
10) Florence Foster Jenkins (8)
ORIGINAL SONG
1) City of Stars/La La Land (1)
2) How Far I'll Go/Moana (3)
3) Audition/ La La Land (2)
4) Can't Stop the Feeling/Trolls (4)
5) Drive It Like You Stole It/Sing Street (5)
6) Runnin'/Hidden Figures (7)
7) Faith/Sing (NR)
8) Rules Don't Apply/Rules Don't Apply (NR)
9) Letter to the Free/13th (10)
10) I'm Still Here/Miss Sharon Jones (9)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) La La Land (1)
2) Fantastic Beasts And Where to Find Them (4)
3) Arrival (5)
4) Jackie (2)
5) Silence (3)
6) Hail, Caesar (NR)
7) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
8) The Handmaiden (NR)
9) Hacksaw Ridge (10)
10) Rogue One (8)
BEST COSTUMES
1) Jackie (1)
2) Florence Foster Jenkins (3)
3) La La Land (2)
4) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (4)
5) Allied (7)
6) The Dressmaker (NR)
7) Silence (5)
8) Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Hail, Caesar (NR)
10) Love and Friendship (6)
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1) Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
2) Deadpool (1)
3) Star Trek Beyond (2)
4) A Man Called Ove (3)
5) Hail, Caesar (7)
6) The Dressmaker (5)
7) Suicide Squad (6)
BEST SOUND EDITING
1) Hacksaw Ridge (1)
2) Arrival (3)
3) Rogue One (2)
4) Deepwater Horizon (6)
5) La La Land (5)
6) Sully (4)
7) The Jungle Book (7)
8) Deadpool (NR)
9) Doctor Strange (NR)
10) Patriot's Day (8)
BEST SOUND MIXING
1) La La Land (1)
2) Hacksaw Ridge (2)
3) Rogue One (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Sully (6)
6) Deepwater Horizon (7)
7) Doctor Strange (NR)
8) The Jungle Book (5)
9) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (NR)
10) Patriot's Day (8)
VISUAL EFFECTS
1) The Jungle Book (1)
2) Rogue One (2)
3) Doctor Strange (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Fantastic Beats and Where to Find Them (5)
6) Kubo and the Two Strings (9)
7) Deepwater Horizon (10)
8) Passengers (6)
9) Captain America: Civil War (7)
10) The BFG (8)
LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) Silent Nights (1)
2) Nocturne in Black (2)
3) Sing (5)
4) Bon Voyage (4)
5) Graffiti (3)
6) Timecode (6)
7) The Way of Tea (10)
8) Ennemis Interiuers (7)
9) The Rifle... (8)
10) Le Femme et le TVG (9)
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) The White Helmets (2)
2) Joe's Violin (1)
3) Extremis (3)
4) The Mute's House (4)
5) 4.1 Miles (5)
6) Close Ties (6)
7) Watani: My Homeland (7)
8) Frame 394 (8)
9) Brillo Pad (3 Cents Off) (10)
10) The Other Side of Home (9)
ANIMATED SHORT
1) Inner Workings (1)
2) Piper (2)
3) The Head Vanishes (3)
4) Blind Vaysha (4)
5) Borrowed Time (7)
6) Pear and Cider Cigarettes (6)
7) Pearl (5)
8) Happy End (9)
9) Once Upon a Line (8)
10) Under Your Fingers (10)
If The FAC is 100% accurate (and remember, it won't be):
La La Land will lead all films and tie the record for most nominations with 14: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song-twice, Production Design, Costumes, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. It seems most vulnerable in the Sound Editing category.
Arrival would have the second largest number of nominations with 10: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects. Arrival is very vulnerable in a number of categories so 10 nominations may not be realistic.
Moonlight would have the third most nominations with eight: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography and Score.
Manchester would tie (with Lion) for the fourth most nominations with seven: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing,
Other TFF nominations would come for Toni Erdmann for Best Foreign Language Film and Sully for Sound Mixing. Toni Erdmann could also have a shot at an Original Screenplay nomination and Sully could compete for nominations for Best Actor and Sound Editing.
Five short subject films that played T-ride could be nominated. For Doc short: The White Helmets, Extremis and 4.1 Miles. For Animated Short: Inner Workings and for Live Action Short: Nocturne in Black.
In total TFF #43 films (again, only of The FAC hits 100%) would earn 46 nominations which would be the most since I started keeping track and (without actually doing the research into years prior to 2008) the most in the festival's history. Additionally, the fest films could be in play for an additional three nominations.
Realistically, my guess is the fest ends up at 39 total nominations.
Other non-Telluride films with multiple nominations:
Lion-7
Hacksaw Ridge-5
Jackie-4
Florence Foster Jenkins-4
Fences-3
Hell or High Water-3
Hidden Figures-3
Fantastic Beasts-3
Rogue One-3
Captain Fantastic-2
Silence-2
My Life as a Zucchini-2
Moana-2
Now, to wait for tomorrow morning...
FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM...
Here are links to the Final Oscar nomination predictions from Oscar prognosticating experts:
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch (podcast)
Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience
Steve Pond/The Wrap
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit (podcast)
Glenn Whipp/The Los Angeles Times
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Nicole Sperling/Entertainment Weekly
I'll update the experts predictions throughout the day today to add other experts of if any of these that are posted, change their minds,
ALSO!!! I am planning to post nominees HERE TOMORROW after the announcement with, perhaps, a bit of commentary. I'll do some fuller analysis in Thursday's regularly scheduled post.
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