The Critics Weigh In on Berlin / The History Continues

THE CRITICS WEIGH IN ON BERLIN

The Berlin International Film Festival continues apace toward its Sunday conclusion and the announcement of award winners in various categories including the announcement of this year's winner of the Golden Bear award to the Best Film in the competition section. 

As BIFF has passed its half way point, here's a look at the critical consensus for some of the titles playing there that, at least initially, have some TFF #47 potential:

Matteo Garrone's Pinocchio 7.32 (on a 10 point scale)
Hong Sang-soo's The Woman Who Ran 7.24
Agnieszka Holland's Charlatan 7.00
Christian Petzold's Undine 6.79
Philippe Garrel's The Salt of Tears 5.45
Abel Ferrara's Siberia 5.09


Still not charting with Reni Urban's critics collective:

Rithy Panh's Irradiated
Mohammad Rasoulof's There Is No Evil


The complete list is linked here.


THE HISTORY CONTINUES

Since Monday's post I have added the text for the 37th Telluride Film Festival Extended History entry on.  2010's festival boasted such titles as:

127 Hours
Another Year
Black Swan
The King's Speech
Tabloid

Guests at YFF #37 included:

Danny Boyle
Colin Firth
James Franco
Andrew Garfield
Ed Harris
Laura Linney
Carey Mulligan
Alexander Payne
Geoffrey Rush

Check out 2010 as well as the other recently added years (2006-2009) on the Expanded History Page 1996-Present.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

Notes from Berlin / Now There Is More History / The Critical Reaction to Berlin Films

NOTES FROM BERLIN

The 70th Berlin International Film Festival is in full swing and runs until Sunday.  I have linked some posts from reporters covering the festival about specific films I have my eye on as possible players in as far as TFF #47 might be concerned.

From The Hollywood Reporter here are looks at:

Rithy Pahn's Irradiated

Mohammad Rasoulof's There Is No Evil

Both films are set to bow in Germany on Friday.

Additionally, prior to its Berlin play, producers released a trailer for Philippe Garrel's The Salt of Tears.  Here that is via YouTube:

ALso releasing a trailer for its Berlin appearance is Able Ferrara's Siberia.  That is linked here also from YouTube:

NOW THERE IS MORE HISTORY

After a good deal of procrastination, I have started the expansion of the Expanded History of the Telluride Film Festival.  For quite some time I have had the years from 2006 to the present represented in the Expanded History through links to the programs for those years that are housed at the Official TFF website.

I've been saying for some time that I would get the information from those years on the Expanded History page formatted as I have all of the years of the festival and just have been sluggish in getting that accomplished.

However, this past week, I actually cranked that up and added the text for 2006-2009.  If you go to the Expanded History 1996-Present page you'll see that info displayed.  Over the next few weeks I plan to get the rest of the last 13 years worth of text on that page as well.

Take look!

AND FINALLY...THE CRITICAL REACTION TO BERLIN FILMS

As has been the case for a few years, I'm looking at the critical tracking of films that play at the Berlin fest to get a sense of which films might be catching the eye of any Telluride programmer that might be in Germany at the this moment. 

To that end I'm checking the critical consensus site:

http://cannes-ratings.herokuapp.com/Berlinale2020

Thus far, and it is incredibly early in as far as the critics' responses are concerned, the top film that I've had my eye on in terms of the critical combo is Matteo Garrone's Pinocchio.  Christian Ptezold's Undine is also doing well in early critical response. 

I'll check back in with the consensus on Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursda

Anticipation / Oscar 2021 Thoughts / Sale Time / And Now: Berlin...

ANTICIPATION

The Hollywood Reporter has put together their list of 77 "most anticipated" films for 2020 and it continues the trend begun at the end of the 2019 to offer some films that one would think will be under consideration and/or will be offered as a possible choice for TFF #47.

THR has organized their list chronologically, at least to the extent possible.  Some highly anticipated films are not yet dated for release and are either listed as TBD's or not listed at all.

Soooo...TFF #47 options?  In chronological order:

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (10/7)

Stillwater (11/6)

Dune 12/18

News of the World (12/25)

Mank (TBD)

Hillbilly Elegy (TBD)

On the Rocks (TBD)

Half tempted to include Ridley Scott's The Last Duel and Ben Wheatley's Rebecca remake.

The complete THR list is here.

OSCAR 2021 THOUGHTS

Variety's Brent Lang and Mark Malkin got into the early Oscar prediction sweepstakes this week with an article posted on Tuesday.  They peer into their crystal ball to contemplate which films might be in serious contention for Academy Award glory a year from now.

Consequently, here's a look at their list of films through the prism of what seems the most likely Telluride players in the order presented in the article:

Ron Howard's Hillbilly Elegy

Sofia Coppola's On the Rocks

Joel Coen's MacBeth

Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7

Francis Lee's Ammonite

Kimberly Pierce's This Is Jane

David Fincher's Mank

The complete Variety post is linked here.

SALE TIME

As a public service, this reminder that TFF #47 passes go on sale on Sunday, March 1.  Here's the reminder directly from the TFF #47 website:

AND NOW:  BERLIN...

The 70th Berlin International Film Festival is opening tonight and will run through Mar. 1st.  And if past os prologue, you can expect that a film or two that will premiere there will probably end up in southwest Colorado in early September.  

Last year it was Varda by Agnes.  In 2018 it was Dovlatov.  In 2017: Hostages and The Other Side of Hope.  2016: Fire at Sea and Things to Come.

The 2020 edition hs a number of films that offer tantalizing possibilities for Telluride programmers.

Indiewire posted a list of 15 films that will play the Berlinale that they say are Their most anticipated.  Among that list, I can point to a few that could be TFF #47 potentials:

Agnieszka Holland's Charlatan

Rithy Pahn's Irradiated

Matteo Garrone's Pinocchio

Phillipe Garrel's The Salt of Tears

Abel Ferrara's Siberia

Christian Petzold's Undine

You can check out all of Indiewire's Berlin Most Anticipated by clicking here.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays.

Awards Circuit Predicts for Oscar 2021 / Indiewire's 30 Collaborations / More on Parasite

AWARDS CIRCUIT PREDICTS FOR OSCAR 2021

Clayton Davis who runs the website Awards Circuit has jumped on the opportunity to get ahead of the Oscar game by making "year-out" predictions for next year's Oscar contenders (as well as Golden Globe guesses and SAG Awards).  As such, I am drawn to those as a way to peer into the possible future for TFF #47.

Davis lists 10 films as potential Best Picture nominees, eight of which seem to have at least some credibility as a Telluride possible.  I leave out two: In the Heights and Soul because they're summer releases.  The other eight:

Ammonite starring Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan from Neon (the distributor behind Parasite)
Annette starring Adam Driver and Marion Cotillard from Amazon
Dune starring Timothee Chalamet from Warner Bros.
Mank starring Gary Oldman from Netflix
News of the World starring Tom Hanks from Universal
Nomadland starring Frances McDormand from Searchlight
Stillwater starring Matt Damon from Focus Features
The Trial of the Chicago 7 starring Michael Keaton and Joseph Gordon-Levitt from Paramount

Other films that Davis mentions in other categories (and he predicts all 21 feature film categories) that might have some T-ride possibility include:

On the Rocks starring Bill Murray from A24
C'mon C'mon starring Joaquin Phoenix from A24
Blonde starring Ana de Armas - no distributor at present
I'm Thinking of Ending Things starring Jesse Plemons and Toni Collette from Netflix
Hillbilly Elegy starring Glenn Close and Amy Adams from Netflix


Take a look at the complete set of predictions here.


INDIEWIRE'S 30 COLLABORATIONS

(photo via Indiewire)

Indiewire's Zack Sharf takes a different approach to looking forward to the films of 2020 by focusing on director/actor combs that will be coming to a theater near you.  Those collaborations also offer a window on potential films that could be on screens in the San Juan Mountains come Labor Day weekend.  Some of those include:

David Fincher and Gary Oldman/Mank**
Mia Hansen-Love and Vicky Krieps/Bergman Island**
Charlie Kaufman and Jesse Plemons/I'm Thinking of Ending Things*
Leos Carax and Marion Cotillard/Annette*
Sophia Coppola and Bill Murray/On the Rocks**
Denis Villenueve and Timothee Chalamet/Dune*
Guillermo Del Toro and Cate Blanchett/Nightmare Alley*
Andrew Dominik and Ana de Armas/Blonde
Mike Mills and Joaquin Phoenix/C'mon C'mon
Taika Waititi and Michael Fassbender/Next Goal Wins*
Aaron Sorkin and Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trail of the Chicago 7*
Christian Petzold and Pauline Beer/Undine
Paul Greengrass and Tom Hanks/News of the World*
Lila Neugebauer and Jennifer Lawrence/Untitled
Francis Lee and Kate Winslet/Ammonite*


(* indicates director or actor has been to TFF)

All of the list of 30 collaborations are linked here.


MORE ON PARASITE

Parasite's Best Picture Oscar win continues to reverberate throughout the film world.  Indiewire's Kate Erbland takes a look at one of the women behind making Bog Joon-ho's film a reality: Elissa Federoff.

Take a look at the profile linked here.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays.

Oscar 2020-This and That / Other Oscar Takes: Analysis of What Went Down Sunday Night / An Early Look at Oscar for 2020 Films / Blog Updates

OSCAR 2020-THIS AND THAT

The dizziness from the Best Picture win for Bong Joon-ho's Parasite on Sunday night has begun to subside leaving a little clear-headedness to think about what occurred.

- Are the Oscars changed forever?  Does the diversification of the membership account for Parasite's success?  Maybe.  Perhaps the Oscars became a truly international award on Sunday.  You might argue that the internationalization has been creeping into the Oscar ceremony over the past decade.  Think of the Oscar Best Directors of recent years:

Hazanavicius/The Artist 2011
Lee/Life of Pi 2012
Cuaron/Gravity and Roma 2013 and 2018
Inarritu/Birdman and The Revenant 2014 and 2015
Del Toro/The Shape of Water 2017
and now Bong for Parasite.

Only Damien Chazelle  who won for La La Land (2016) hales from the USA.

It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

-Parasite became the first film to win both International (or Foreign Language) Feature and Best Picture.

- Fully subtitled, I think it's the first Best Picture for which that is true although a friend of mine pointed out that past winners have included some sub-titling: Slumdog Millionaire, The Godfather films, Dances With Wolves.

- Parasite becomes the first Best Picture/Palme D'or combination winner since Marty in 1955.

- I took a look at how Telluride films have fared over the last decade in terms of total Oscar wins for each year.  Here's how that breaks down:

2019- 8
2018- 6
2017- 7
2016- 13 (this was the year of Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Arrival)
2015- 4
2014- 7
2013- 10 (Gravity and 12 Years a Slave)
2012- 5
2011- 7
2010- 7

That's 74 Oscar wins over the decade meaning that TFF films win 7.4 Oscars per year.  That means, thanks to Parasite, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story and Judy, that this year's Oscar haul was better than average.  Best year, as you can see above, was 2016 with 13 , followed by 2013 with 10.  The most meager Oscar year was 2015 with four wins-that was the year of Spotlight.


OTHER OSCAR TAKES: ANALYSIS OF WHAT WENT DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT

In addition to my commentary about Oscar 2020 above I have also included some analysis posted this week from a couple of others.  Here they are:

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Ben Travers/Indiewire

Zack Sharf/Indiewire



AN EARLY LOOK AT OSCAR FOR 2020 FILMS

Photo from IMDb

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture seemed to be the first up from an Oscar watching website with a rundown of films he thinks we'll be talking about a year from now as Oscar contenders.  There willy, be others coming soon and I'll include some of those early, early looks through the prism of what are films that might land at Telluride for TFF #47.

Among the films that Matt includes:

Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7- IMDb says that it went into post-production last December.  Distrib: Paramount.  Release date: Sept. 25th

Paul Greengrass' News of the World- in post production last November.  Distrib: Universal.  Release: Dec. 25th.

David Fincher's Mank- in post this month.  Distrib: Netflix.  Release: TBA

Ron Howard's Hillbilly Elegy- in post last August. Distrib: Netflix.  Release November

Denis Villenueve's Dune- in post starting in July, 2019.  Distrib: Warner Bros.  Release: Dec. 18th.

Edgar Wright's Last Night in Soho- in post in August.  Distrib: Focus Features.  Release: Sept. 25th.

Lila Neugebauer's Red, White and Water- in post production in August.  Distrib: A24. Release: TBA

Francis Lee's Ammonite- in post since last April.  Distrib: Neon (coming off of Parasite this year).  Release: TBA

Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley- currently filming.  Distrib: Searchlight.  Release: TBA.

Chloe Zhao's Nomadland- in post since last March.  Distrib: Searchlight.  Release: TBA

The complete article is linked here including Matt's opening predictions for six major categories.


BLOG UPDATES

A Couple of bits of info.  I have updated the "Unofficial TFF Oscar History" page to reflect what occurred during the just concluded Oscar season.  Additionally, the "Selected TFF History" page has been updated to include the information from TFF #46.  Check those pages out. 

Still to come are the updates to the "Expanded Telluride Film Festival History-Part Two: 1996 to the Present.  I still have to synthesize the material from TFF programs for Fests from 2006-2019.  The links to the official online version of each of those programs are still on that page.



EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays.

And the Oscar Goes to...Parasite / The "Telluride Effect" Returns

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO... PARASITE

TFF #46 films in Bold

BEST PICTURE

Winner: Parasite 

BEST DIRECTION

Winner: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Renee Zellweger/Judy

BEST ACTOR

Winner: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Laura Dern/Marriage Story

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: Jojo Rabbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Parasite

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

Winner: Parasite

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Winner: American Factory

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Winner: Toy Story 4

BEST FILM EDITING

Winner: Ford v Ferrari

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: 1917

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Winner: I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Winner: Joker

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: 1917

BEST COSTUMES

Winner: Little Women

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Bombshell

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: 1917

BEST SOUND EDITING

Winner: Ford v Ferrari

BEST SOUND MIXING

Winner: 1917

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner: The Neighbor's Window

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: Hair Love

Telluride films win eight Oscars: Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and INternational Film for Parasite.  Film Editing and Sound Editing for Ford v Ferrari.  Best Actress for Renee Zellweger in Judy and Best Supporting Actress for Laura Dern in Marriage Story

My personal prediction rate for Oscar #92: 19 of 24 for a 79.2% rate almost exactly my prediction average for the last decades (79.6%)

Surprises were all but non-existent.  If you check out Sunday's predictions here you'll see that in every instance where I missed the film that won, the film I had listed as a "Maybe" picked up the trophy.

That said, the Parasite wins for directing and Best Picture were electrifying.  Parasite, as I noted yesterday, had clearly been gaining momentum and a lot of Oscar pundits did call for it to win.  Despite that, there was still a real sense of surprise in the hall, at least so it seemed to me, when Jane Fonda made the announcement.

Parasite's win is historic as it marks the first time in the Academy's history that a non-English language film has won Best Picture.  My bet is that the diversification initiative that the Academy has been pursuing regarding its membership over the past few years made Parasite's win a reality.  Additionally, as my friend Sasha Stone is fond of saying...Actors rule...and it feels like that branch of the Academy (its largest) made the difference over 1917 which had won awards from the PGA, DGA, Bafta and the Golden Globe for drama.




THE "TELLURIDE EFFECT" RETURNS

And, of course, Parasite's Best Picture win brings Telluride back into the conversation as an indispensable stop for films that are serious Oscar contenders.  The Telluride string was broken last year with Green Book's win but Parasite re-establishes TFF in the Oscar pantheon with the 10th Best Picture winner in the last 12 years having screened at the Fest prior to its winning the top honor.

You have to hand it to Tom Luddy, Julie Huntsinger and the rest of the crew that curates the fest's selections.  Parasite wins four Oscars plus Best Picture nominations for Marriage Story and Ford v Ferrari meaning that a full third of the BP nominees played Telluride plus The Two Popes which may well have been the 10th place film in initial balloting.  Don't forget Renee Zellweger's Best Actress winning turn in Judy which bowed at Telluride before anywhere else and Laura Dern's win for Best Supporting Actress.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays.

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS IN ALL 24 CATEGORIES / FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Here we are...

After a shortened Oscar season window, the ceremony is a couple of weeks earlier than has been the case recently, we have arrived at the moment of truth.  Hours from now Oscar nominees will become Oscar winners.

It's been a really interesting season especially in the race for Best Picture.  In other cases, such as all four of the acting categories, if there is a winner besides the widely expected four that have been the leaders all season, it would be a major surprise.

Sooo...here they are...drumroll please...

BEST PICTURE

Winner: 1917
Maybe: Parasite or Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Note:  The bare consensus among the Oscar experts is with 1917 but there is a strong current over the last couple of weeks in the direction of Parasite.  Either win pleases me.  I'd personally put 1917 at the top of my Oscar ballot if I had one and I'd love to see Parasite win to revive the "Telluride Effect".  Two other quick points...I wouldn't be shocked if Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood won the big award tonight.  I can envision it being the second or third choice on a lot of 1917 and Parasite ballots and it will get a healthy share of #1 ballots on its own.  And...the latest stirring in the last week is a theory that Taika Waititi's Jojo Rabbit stuns tonight.  I think that's a big stretch but as insane as Best Picture has been this year...who knows?

BEST DIRECTION
Winner: Sam Mendes/1917
Maybe: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite

BEST ACTRESS
Winner: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Maybe: Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story

BEST ACTOR
Winner: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
Maybe: Adam Driver/Marriage Story

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Maybe: Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...
Maybe: Joe Pesci/The Irishman

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: Little Women
Maybe: Jojo Rabbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: Parasite
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Winner: parasite
Maybe: Pain and Glory

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Winner: American Factory
Maybe: For Sama

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Winner: Toy Story 4
Maybe: Klaus or I Lost My Body

BEST FILM EDITING
Winner: Ford v Ferrari
Maybe: Parasite

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Joker

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman
Maybe: Stand Up/Harriet

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: Joker
Maybe: 1917

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...

BEST COSTUMES
Winner: Little Women
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
Winner: Bombshell
Maybe: Joker

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Winner: 1917
Maybe: The Irishman

BEST SOUND EDITING
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Ford v Ferrari

BEST SOUND MIXING
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Ford v Ferrari

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Winner: The Neighbor's WIndow
Maybe: Brotherhood

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Maybe: St. Louis Superman

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Winner: Hair Love
Maybe: Kitbull


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS

Awards Daily Sasha says 1917 by an eyelash.

Awards Watch Awards Watch is picking Parasite to win Best Picture.

Variety  Variety opts for 1917 to win BP.

The Playlist  The Playlist says Parasite.

Deadline Deadline picks 1917.

The Hollywood Reporter THR picks 1917.

Indiewire  Indiewire predicts Parasite to win.

The Los Angeles Times  The LA Times says the winner will be 1917.

The New York Times  The Times says it's 1917.

Time Time says it's time for 1917.

Awards Circuit  AC says it will be 1917.

Entertainment Weekly  EW predicts Parasite.

The Hollywood News.  Hollywood News predicts Parasite.

The BBC  The BBC says 1917 wins Best Pic.

Collider Collider predicts Parasite to win.

Vanity Fair The Vanity Fair experts lean toward 1917.

Vulture   Vulture is in the Parasite camp.

The Toronto Star  The Star is picking 1917.

And here are the two big Oscar expert collectives:

The Gurus of Gold  We Gurus collectively are saying 1917.  (You'll see that's what I predicted last weekend when we were canvassed for our Final Guru picks).

Gold Derby  And Gold Derby's collective says it will be 1917.

I have TFF #46 films winning five total Oscars tonight:

Parasite: International Film, Original Screenplay
Best Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari: Editing

TFF #46 films listed as the :Maybes: tonight include:


How will I do tonight?    Here's a quick look back to my decade long Oscar prediction track record:

2019: 19/24
2018: 21/24
2017: 15/24
2016: 15/24
2015: 20/24
2014: 22/24
2013: 18/24
2012: 18/24
2011: 17/24
2010: 14/24

That's a total of 179/240 for a correct percentage rate of  74.6%

Stay tuned tonight.  Like many of my friends in this business, I'll likely be tweeting here and there during the ceremony.

You can also expect an assessment of sorts in tomorrow morning's regularly scheduled post.

Oscar Predicted Winners: The Final Eight Categories / The Final Gurus of Gold / Ruimy Takes A Stab at Cannes

OSCAR PREDICTED WINNERS: THE FINAL EIGHT CATEGORIES

Here's a look at where I'm at predicting what films will win Oscars on Sunday night for Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and the three Shorts categories.

My FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS for all 24 categories will be posted SUNDAY MORNING...because it's all still fluid.  The predictions below even post date some of those I have for the latest Gurus of Gold at Movie City News (see below).

As always TFF #46 films are in Bold


COSTUMES

1) Little Women
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) Jojo Rabbit
4) The Irishman
5) Joker

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Bombshell
2) 1917
3) Joker
4) Judy
5) Maleficent

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) 1917
2) The Irishman
3) Avengers: Endgame
4) The Lion King
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

SOUND MIXING

1) 1917
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) Joker
5) Ad Astra

SOUND EDITING

1) Ford v Ferrari
2) 1917
3) Joker
4) Once Upon a Time...
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Brotherhood
2) The Neighbors Window
3) Nefta Football Club
4) Saria
5) A Sister

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You're a Girl)
2) St. Louis Superman
3) Life Overtakes Me
4) In the Absence
5) Walk Run Cha Cha

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Hair Love
2) Kitbull
3) Dcera (Daughter)
4) Sister
5) Memorable


THE FINAL GURUS OF GOLD

The last Gurus of Gold predictions for Oscar Night are up over at Movie City News.  In addition to yours truly, other Gurus this season have included: Thelma Adams, Gregory Ellwood, Mark Johnson, Dave Karger, David Poland, Steve Pond, Sasha Stone and Jeff Sneider.

According to the Gurus' collective wisdom TFF #46 films will have wins in the following categories:

Best Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Best Original Screenplay: Parasite
Best International Film: Parasite
Best Film Editing: Ford v Ferrari

There are a few categories where TFF #46 films are in the #2 spot and, at least in theory, pose the greatest chance to knock off the predicted winners.  They are:

Best Picture: Parasite
Best Director: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite
Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story
Best Actor: Adam Driver/Marriage Story
Best International Film: Pain and Glory
Best Editing: Parasite
Best Makeup/Hair: Judy
Best Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Best Sound Mixing: Ford v Ferrari

At most, TFF #46 films could win 14 Oscars Sunday night as at least one TFF #46 film is competing in that many categories.  Categories with zero TFF #46 nominees are: Best Supporting Actor, Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, Cinematography, Costumes, Visual Effects, Song and the three Shorts categories.

I want to give a quick shout of gratitude to Ray Pride and Movie City News for asking me back for a second season as one of the Gurus of Gold.  Hope to be back again next season.


RUIMY TAKES A STAB AT CANNES

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel has posted what he terms a "Cannes Spitball" as he takes an educated guess at a number of films that seem to stand a good chance of making the lineup for the Cannes Film Fest.  Cannes runs this year from May 12-23.

as readers of this space know, the Cannes/Telluride share list is usually considerable.  If you look at the lineups of the two fests over the past ten

 years, you can definitely see the connection:

In 2019, eight films played both fests
2018-7
2017-8
2016-7
2015-6
2014-9
2013-9
2012-10
2011-5
2010-9

That's an average of 7.8 films per year that crossover.

So, thinking about what will play at Cannes and then ultimately evaluating the titles that do eventually get chosen is a good way to make some guesses about a potential TFF #47 set of film choices.

Soooo...what does Jordan have to say in his post and, ultimately, which titles does he suggest for Cannes that seem a potential pick of TFF programmers?

Here are some films from his list that, at least this far out, might be TFF possibles:

Mia Hansen-Love's Bergman Island
Chloe Zhao's Nomadland
Sophia Coppola's On the Rocks
Nanni Moretti's Tre Piani
Ulrich Seidel's Bose Spiele

Jordan's complete post is linked here.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays.

Oscar Predicted Winners: The Next Eight / BAFTA Showers 1917 with Love / Writers Guild Awards / Latest Gurus of Gold

OSCAR PREDICTED WINNERS: THE NEXT EIGHT CATEGORIES

Last Thursday I posted my latest picks for The Big Eight Oscar categories.  Today "The Next Eight": International Film, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Original Score and Original Song.

This coming Thursday I will add predictions for The Last Eight categories and then on Oscar Sunday Morning itself, I will have FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR ALL 24 CATEGORIES.

Here are today's predix with TFF #47 films in Bold

INTERNATIONAL FILM

1) Parasite
2) Pain and Glory
3) Les Miserables
4) Honeyland
5) Corpus Christi


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) American Factory
2) Honeyland
3) For Sama
4) The Cave
5) The Edge of Democracy


ANIMATED FEATURE
 1) Toy Story 4
2) Klaus
3) Missing Link
4) I Lost My Body
5) Frozen II


CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) 1917
2) Joker
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) The Lighthouse
5) The Irishman


FILM EDITING

1) Parasite
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) The Irishman
4) Jojo Rabbit
5) Joker


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) 1917
2) Parasite
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) Jojo Rabbit
5) The Irishman


ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Joker
2) 1917
3) Marriage Story
4) Little Women
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker


ORIGINAL SONG

1) I'm Gonna Love Myself Again/Rocketman
2) Into the Unknown/Frozen II
3) Stand Up/Harriet
4) I'm Standing with You/Breakthrough
5) I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away/Toy Story 4


BAFTA SHOWERS 1917 WITH LOVE

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts named their winners on last night and Sam Mendes' 1917 had a very good evening winning in seven categories (out of nine nominations).

TFF #47 films earned five BAFTAs as you will see highlighted and bolded below.

Here is how the BAFTAs shook out in the feature film categories:

Best Film: 1917
Best British Film: 1917
Best British Debut: Mark Jenkin/Bait
Film Not in the English Language: Parasite
Documentary: For Sama
Animated Film: Klaus
Director: Sam Mendes/1917
Original Screenplay: Parasite
Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
Lead Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Lead Actor: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Original Score: Joker
Casting: Joker
Cinematography: 1917
Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Production Design: 1917
Costume Design: Little Women
Makeup and Hair: Bombshell
Sound: 1917
Special Visual Effects: 1917


Complete coverage of the BAFTAs is linked here from Indiewire.



WRITERS GUILD AWARDS

The Writers Guild of America named the best in writing for film and television in a ceremony on Saturday night.  TFF #47's Parasite, written by Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin Won, was named the Best Original screenplay for 2019.  It's the first time in the guilds history that a script for a film in a language other than English has been named the recipient of the WGA award.

Meanwhile, the Adapted Screenplay award went to Taika Waititi for penning the adaptation of Caging Skies into Jojo Rabbit.

Both films' scripts are Oscar nominated. 

The complete Writers Guild winners list for film and television is linked here from Indiewire.



LATEST GURUS OF GOLD FOR FEATURE FILM OSCAR CATEGORIES

We Gurus have our latest round of collective predictions up for all 21 feature film categories over at Movie City News.  You can find that linked here.

If we Gurus are correct, at this point we are guessing that TFF #47 films win Oscars as follows:

Parasite (2): Best International Film, Best Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari (2): Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Judy (1): Best Actress: Renee Zellweger
Marriage Story (1): Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern

The rest of the 21 feature categories are currently predicted to go like this:

1917 (3): Picture, Director, Cinematography
Once Upon a Time (3): Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design
Joker (2): Actor, Original Score
Little Women (2): Adapted Screenplay, Costumes
American Factory: Documentary
Toy Story 4: Animated
Bombshell: Makeup/Hair
Avengers: Endgame: Visual Effects
Rocketman: Song


Couple of quick notes:  It feels to me like Parasite is making a late surge for Best Picture, Director and Original Screenplay.  Also seeming to be gathering some heat is Jojo Rabbit.

The latest complete Gurus of Gold is linked here.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays.