And maybe back on the list

I had pretty much written off "Precious/Push/Sapphire" since it played at Sundance this year and I had always thought that Telluride avoided scheduling films that had played in Utah....but...Kristopher Tapley writing yesterday for Incontention.com suggests that it could still end up in Telluride next week.

Tapley says: "Lee Daniels’s “Precious.” The film will play the Toronto, New York and Chicago fests, perhaps Telluride (that typically secretive line-up is begging to be revealed slowly in conversations around town)." You can find this and more at: http://incontention.com/

Tapley is well connected, so you have to give the concept some credence. "Precious" was originally on my list of three major guesses back in July along with "Amelia" and "Broken Promises".

Stay tuned!

10 Days and Counting

No real news tonight...nothing popping up that we have been able to discern in the last 48 hours.

Did get a note from Reilly Capps at the Telluride Daily Planet alerting us to a story he posted last week. In it he quotes Telluride Film Fest Co-Chair Gary Meyer any number of times characteristically declining comment on what may or may not be playing. Of note, however is Meyer's quote near the end of the article. He says, "“I will tell you that it’s going to be a fantastic festival and there are some real surprises.” Capps full article can be found at: http://www.telluridenews.com/articles/2009/08/19/news/doc4a8cd662dc40f505807691.txt

That is great news. Last year's fest was undeniably affected by the writer's strike and both Meyer and fellow Co-Chair Tom Luddy are to be commended for the festival that they put on last year in light of that.

With that note, however, it is worth commenting on what appears to be Meyer's enthusiasm about this year's lineup. When Meyer says "real surprises" I believe him and have a hard time waiting to see what they might be. It has me very excited to head to the San Juans!

Two Weeks

Two weeks away from the festival and...

Rumors have been floating for a couple of months (since the middle of June when it was announced as a selection for Toronto) that Jason Reitman's new film "Up in the Air" starring George Clooney would follow the path that his Juno did two years ago and be at Telluride.

As cool as that would be, there has been nothing more than rumor and speculation. Sites such as Hitfix and Filmcatcher have hinted at the possibility...but absolutely no one is being more definite than that.

Here's hoping it's included on the program. It's arrival is highly anticipated.

Lynch and Herzog???

Living In Cinema's Craig Kennedy speculates this evening that the digitally shot "My Son My Son, What Have Ye Done" may make an appearance at the Telluride fest. The film is produced by David Lynch and directed by Werner Herzog (who also co-wrote the script). Both of these film makers have a history with the festival...(Herzog and I rode the same yellow school bus to the Patron brunch two years ago...sort of freaked me out at the time).

The Film is said to be based on a true story about a murder that stems from a man's belief/obsession with Sophocles "Oedipus Rex."

The film stars: Willem Dafoe, Brad Dourif, best supporting actor Oscar nominee Michael Shannon and Oscar nominated Chloe Sivigny among others.

Life During Wartime

Variety hints last night that Todd Solondz new film "Life During Wartime" may be in line to play during the festival. The movie features Ally Sheedy, Paul "Pee Wee" Ruebens, Allison Janney, Ciaran Hinds and past Telluride 2005 tributee Charlote Rampling.

Another Film Surfaces

"Lebanon" an Israeli film set during the 1982 invasion by Israel into Lebanon is reported today in Yair Reveh's International Film Blog as appearing in the program in Telluride in 3 weeks.

Israeli film has had a good run at Telluride the last two years with"The Band's Visit" in 2007 and "Waltz with Bashir" last year. Makes me think that this will be another very good film.

The web address for the full article is: www.cinemascopian.com/2009/08/11/lebanon-in-new-york-toronto-telluride/

First Inkling

Anne Thompson writing in her blog has let slip that Jane Campion's "Bright Star" will be in Telluride this year. She makes the comment in a story that talks about the announcement of a new distributing company called "Apparition". You can find Thompson"s blog at http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/.

"Bright Star" can be found at imdb at www.imdb.com/title/tt0810784. The film is the story of poet John Keats and his romance with Fanny Brawne in the 19th century and features Ben Whishaw and Abbie Cornish in those roles.

This blog included "Bright Star" as a possible Telluride pic in our last post.

Appartion also has the distribution for Terrence Malick's "The Tree of Life" starring Brad Pitt and Sean Penn...Thompson does not say but implies that Malick's film will not be ready for Telluride presentation...but you never know.

Four More Possibles

Here are four more to think about as possibles for this year's 36th edition of the Telluride Film Festival: Tim Blake Nelson's Oklahoma-set "Leaves of Grass"...not Walt Whitman's biopic! Edward Norton stars as twin brothers...Also Neil Jordan's new film "Ondine", Jane Campion's "Bright Star" and Robert Duvall and Bill Murray in "Get Low"...meanwhile, their appearance earlier this year at Sundance means we won't see: Push, An Education or The Informers...

6 Weeks

Can you say "Invictus". Clint Eastwood's Nelson Mandela project has annouced a release date positioned for the awards season. Morgan Freeman on board and its certain appeal as awards bait plus Eastwood's past with Telluride make one think that it is at least a possibility.

I can now blog from my phone!

Countdown to #36

He's BACK...

The 36th TFF is 2 months away and so it is with virtually no fanfare that we'll start our speculation about what we might expect/hope for this year's festival.

We know: Alexander Payne (writer/director..."About Schmidt", "Sideways") is this year's guest director...and film critic Manny Farber will be "celebrated"...I doubt that means that Farber is one of the three actual "tributes".

3 films I'm putting out there right now as possibles:

"Amelia"...2 time Oscar winner Hilary Swank as Amelia Earhart from Fox Searchlight...mostly because it's from Fox Searchlight and is directed by Mira Nair...a Telluride favorite in the past.

"Broken Promises" Pedro Almodovar's latest...reasons to think it's in: At Cannes, Almodovar (again a Telluride favorite over the years). Stars past Telluride tributee Penelope Cruz...and from Sony Pic Classics...all good reasons.

"Precious/Push/Sapphire"...Oscar bait and from Lionsgate and was at Cannes.

Others in play or at least wishful thinking: Jennifer's Body (Diablo Cody), The Informant (Soderbergh), Coco Before Chanel (Audrey Tautou), Shutter Island (Scorsese), A Serious Man (Coen Bros.), Whip It (Drew Barrymore directs), The Road (finally), Nine (Daniel Day-Lewis), Brothers (Gyllenhaal/Portman/Maguire), The Lovely Bones (Peter Jackson), Dr. Parnassus (Terry Gilliam, Ledger's last film), Up in the Air (Jason Reitman), Men Who Stare at Goats (Clooney/MacGregor), The Tree of Life (Malick), Looking for Eric (Ken Loach), Biutiful (Gonzalez-Inarritu), The White Ribbon (Cannes Palme D'Or).

Let the speculation begin!

Oscar Clearinghouse #14...Post Mortem

Slumdog cast and crew winning Best Picture

It says something that the biggest surprise of the night was Best Foreign Film...Japan's Departures. Otherwise, the evening was full of the expected. My perfect night of predictions in the Big 8 categories ended when Sean Penn won his second Best Actor Oscar for "Milk". I had thought that his first win for "Mystic River" was too recent and that the Mickey Rourke comeback story would prove irresistible. That being said, it's hard to quibble with the award going to Penn because he was truly outstanding as Harvey Milk.

As to the rest of the categories: Nailed 'em, but it didn't seem all that difficult...a little suspense in the two actress categories.

But the Slumdog momentum was just too much everywhere else. Including a tiny surprise in Sound Mixing that made the total count for Slumdog go to 8 Oscars.

I have said it before...I think that we discovered after Telluride this year that it was not the best year for film. Compared to last year's fest (Juno, Into the Wild, Diving Bell, There Will Be Blood, Persepolis...) and the year that was 2007...2008 couldn't really compete. I think we also realized as the fall turned into winter that the festival organizers had done a terrific job with what films they had to chose from. Slumdog isn't a great film...it's good, but not great...still, it was the best thing I saw all year (Milk was a close second).

We learned again that the Telluride Festival is, perhaps, the most influential fest in the world...certainly among the top 5...and as I watched the Oscar telecast last night, I was reminded of how incredibly fortunate I have been to have been able to have participated the last three years. And I am thrilled at the prospect that come Labor Day this year, I expect to be back. Thanks Larry and Mitzi!!!

The Telluride Film Blog now goes into hibernation for a while. I'm at my busiest time of the school year for the next 2 months. As we approach summer, I'll resurrect the blog and start the speculation about what the 2009 version of Telluride may hold. Can't wait!

Oscar Clearinghouse #13...And On With The Show

Overture, curtain, lights,

This is it, the night of nights

No more rehearsing and nursing our parts

We know every part by heart

Overture, curtain, light

This is it, we'll hit the heights

And oh what heights we'll hit

On with the show this is it

Tonight what heights we'll hit

On with the show this is it.

2 days left before Oscar!!!

And the expectations addressed last week have not really changed...My picks remain the same

Picture: SLUMDOG (TFF 2008)

Director: DANNY BOYLE/SLUMDOG

Actor: Mickey Rourke/Wrestler (edging out Sean Penn...my TFF buddy from 2007)

Actress: Kate Winslet/Reader

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger/Dark Knight

Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz (TFF 2006)/VC Barcelona

Original Script: Dustin Lance Black/Milk

Adapted Script: SIMON BEAUFOY/SLUMDOG

Additionally look for Slumdog to get Film Editing, Cinematography, Score and Song...and if it's a real sweep...Sound Mixing and Sound Editing...most pundits don't think the last two are going to happen...but maybe...

I'm guessing Button wins 2 or 3 tech awards...

WALTZ WITH BASHIR (TFF 2008) wins for Foreign Film

Check back next week...I'll do an Oscar post mortem for 2008's films in what will probably be the last post until sometime after the State Speech Tournament here in Oklahoma...I have a small part to play in its execution...

Oscar Clearinghouse #12...Tick, Tick, Tick...

Dev Patel and Freida Pinto in Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire"
Is it 2008's Best Film? Oscar is going to say: "YES" on Feb. 22...

Less than two weeks from the Big Show and the Oscar community has settled into relative stupor. The conventional wisdom is that most of the main races are all but over and far be it from me to disagree...The Slumdog Millionaire Express has taken a lot of the suspense out of the weeks leading up to Oscar. That is unlikely to change in the next few days. The BAFTA awards over the weekend (the British version of Oscar) continued to echo what has been happening throughout awards season...Slumdog is the big dog and in all likelihood will be on Oscar night as well. Here's the lowdown by category for the Big Eight awards and a few comments along the way...

Best Picture: There is some buzz of a backlash against Slumdog based on whispers of exploitative work practices with regard to the younger children in the film. I suspect that is entirely hogwash...and that it won't actually diminish the film's chances of winning the Best Picture Oscar...Winner: Slumdog Millionaire...Surprise: Anything Else

Best Director: Danny Boyle has cleaned up this season and will no doubt do so again on Feb. 22. Again, some negative backlash buzz and a supposed mini-boomlet of support for Stephen Daldry, but Boyle is your winner. Winner: Danny Boyle/Slumdog. Surprise: David Fincher/Benjamin Button

Best Actor: The best race of the night it seems...Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke? Both performances have been honored during this awards season...Saw Milk a couple of weeks back and Penn is amazing! But Rourke has the come back story going for him and his work (what I've seen from the film) is also amazing...go with....Winner: Mickey Rourke/The Wrestler. Surprise: Though not really, Penn

Best Actress: A lot of folks think that the move to Kate Winslet in the last month has sealed the deal for her to win her first Oscar. I'm not so sure. She is the best thing about The Reader...which aims and misses as far as I was concerned...but she is very good in it. That said, I still think the Academy might go elsewhere...Streep being the most likely to pick up the trophy. The Anne Hathaway bandwagon, which seemed pretty strong 4-6 weeks ago, has all but disappeared. Winner: Winslet/The Reader. Surprise: Streep/Doubt

Supporting Actor: Ledger. Not a lot more to say. Going to win it...Should win it. Surprise: Impossible to contemplate.

Supporting Actress: I have been very confident about Penelope Cruz for months now. And with Kate Winslet gone to the lead category...she should be in great shape. Winner: Cruz/Barcelona. Surprise: Davis/Doubt

Original Script: Some actual uncertainty here. A battle between Milk and Wall-E...The human wins? Winner: Milk. Surprise: Wall-E

Adapted Script: Slumdog strikes again. Winner: Beaufoy/Slumdog. Surprise: David Hare/The Reader.

Other notes: I think that Slumdog is also likely to win Cinematography, Film Editing, Song, Score, And perhaps the Sound Editing and Mixing as well...meaning as many as 9 trophies...(It can't win 10 as it is double nominated in Best Song)...And maybe it doesn't...but I got a feeling...

It's D. Destiny!

Button...13 noms and no wins? Probably not. It probably wins a technical award here and there to avoid the complete shutout...

Waltz with Bashir will win Foreign Film...

Man On Wire will win Best Doc...beating 2007 TFF entrant from Werner Herzog, Encounters at the End of the World.

Last column before Oscar will go up the Friday before...Peace!

Oscar Clearinghouse #11...No Love for TDK

Pardon the expression, but HOLY CRAP BATMAN! It's a dark day for The Dark Knight!

After what seemed to be a tsunami of buzz that The Dark Knight would break new ground and grab a Best Pic nom...boy did it get SNUBBED this morning or what??? No Best Pic or Director or Screenplay...WOW. And the beneficiary, clearly The Reader...which got all of those plus Kate Winslet in Best Actress not Supporting...

And, as is often the case, I don't seem to be nearly as smart as I think I am... The only categories I got 100% right...Film Editing and Visual Effects....Missed at least one in every other category that I picked (18 categories all together)....Geeeez!

Here's the link to the official nominees page:

http://www.oscars.org/awards/81academyawards/nominees.html

And the notes from this morning by category...

Best Pic: TDK out, The Reader in...actually, if you were paying attention this morning and saw that Winslet was not a nominee for Supporting...that was the first sign that things might get weird...Both the chart and I go for 4 for 5.

Best Director: Again...Nolan/TDK out and Stephen Daldry/Reader in...although the Best Pic and Directors match 5 for 5 and that's fairly rare. Again the chart and I both go 4 for 5.

Best Actor...I was 4 for 5 here missing Pitt as I thought there was enough support for Eastwood to get him a nomination here. The chart was 4 for 5 as well.

Best Actress: I go 4 for 5 here missing the movie that Winslet gets nominated for...otherwise pleased that I picked Melissa Leo to get a nom and she did. The chart gets 3 for 5...and my thought that the Telluride threesome of Hawkins, Thomas and Blanchett wouldn't be in the money proved to be right.

Best Supporting Actor: Both myself and the chart go 4 for 5...but I missed with my pick of Dev Patel (thought the Slumdog momentum would be enough) and the charts had James Franco in Milk...instead...Michael Shannon for Rev Road...who was a front runner earlier in the season gets Rev Road's only major nomination.

Best Supporting Actress: I go 4 for 5. The chart does too. We both miss Winslet sliding up to the lead category...I got Amy Adams...the chart got Taraji P. Henson

Adapted Script: Again no TDK and yes for The Reader...Charts and I go 4 for 5.

Original Script: I go 3 for 5 in what many thought was the toughest category to pick. The chart was also 3 for 5...We both missed Frozen River and In Bruges.

Other stuff...I was surprised Waltz with Bashir was NOT an animated film nominee

Slumdog gets 2 Best Song noms...and there are only 3 songs nominated...really?

Telluride connections go like this as best as I can tell this morning:

13 for Button

10 for Slumdog

4 others: Waltz with Bashir and Revanche (Foreign), Encounters at the End of the World (TFF 2007/Documentary and a shout out to my bus buddy Werner Herzog). New Boy (Live Action Short)... For a total of 27. Now on to Feb 22 and the winners!

Oscar Clearinghouse # 10...Last Call!

Less than 24 hours from nomination announcements and here is the last post prior to that. I have checked the charts one last time and compiled the information from: The Envelope (LA Times), And the Winner Is, Everything Oscar, In Contention, Gurus of Gold (Movie City News), Awards Circuit, Film Experience, Film Misery and The Oscar Guy. Here's what they tell us and my guesses going into tomorrow morning's announcement...

THE BIG EIGHT

Best Picture: Slumdog, Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Dark Knight are the cumulative chart picks...Doubt and Wall-E are your best chances at an upset. My picks mirror the 5 from the charts.

Best Director: Boyle/Slumdog, Fincher/Button, Van Sant/Milk, Howard/Frost/Nixon, Nolan/Dark Knight. The charts now point to Darren Aronofsky/The Wrestler as the ONLY chance at a surprise in this category. My picks are the charted 5. And this would be a relatively rare case of the 5 Best Picture nominees matching the 5 directing nominees.

Best Actor: Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Langella/Frost/Nixon, Eastwood/Gran Torino, Jenkins/The Visitor... I've been pointing at these 5 for a while now. I've thought for quite some time that Brad Pitt was going to miss out and the charts say that now as well. I agree with the charted 5 and in addition to Pitt being a possible "surprise" also add Leonardo DiCaprio...

Beat Actress: The charted 5 get messy after the first 3. Streep/Doubt, Winslet/Rev Road and Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married seem certain. The last two spots chart-wise at this point go to Jolie/Changeling and Hawkins/Happy-Go-Lucky. Melissa Leo and Cate Blanchett would be your "surprises". My picks are Streep, Hathaway, Winslet, Jolie and Leo/Frozen. I've thought for some time that the Telluride trio of Blanchett, Hawkins and Thomas would be shut out and I still think that's likely.

Best Supporting Actor: Ledger/Dark Knight, Brolin/Milk, Hoffman/Doubt, Downey, jr./Tropic Thunder, and Franco/Milk. "surprise" nominees: Michael Shannon and Dev Patel. My guess is that Patel knocks Franco out of the nominations and the rest of the charted four remain your nominees.

Best Supporting Actress: Charts say: Cruz,/VC Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Tomei/Wrestler, Henson/Button and Winslet/Reader..."surprise"...Amy Adams or Rosemarie DeWitt...My guess...Cruz, Davis, Winslet, Tomei and Adams bumping out Henson

Original Script: Charts say: Milk, Rachel Getting Married, VC Barcelona, Wall-E, and Happy-Go-Lucky. Surprises...The Visitor, The Wrestler, Burn After Reading. I think this is the hardest category to call this year. Especially since the WGA announced their nominees in the category. My picks (staying with what I've said before) remain: Milk, VC Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler and Happy-Go-Lucky.

Adapted Script: Charts: Slumdog, Button, Frost/Nixon, Doubt, The Dark Knight. Possible stunners: The Reader, Revolutionary Road. My picks are the chart (as was the pick for the WGA noms).

TECHNICALS:

Art Direction: Charts: Button, Dark Knight, Australia, Changeling, The Reader.

My Picks: Button, Dark Knight, Changeling, Doubt, Milk

Cinematography: Charts: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Rev Road, Australia

My Picks: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Rev Road, The Reader

Costumes: Button, The Duchess, Rev Road, Changeling, Australia

My Picks: Button, Duchess, Rev Road, Changeling, Milk

Film Editing:Charts: Slumdog, Button, Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk

My Picks: Ditto

Score: Charts: Button, Slumdog, Wall-E, Milk, Rev Road

My Picks: Button, Slumdog, Wall-E, Milk, Dark Knight

Song: Wrestler, Wall-E, Slumdog, Bolt, Cadillac Records

My Picks: Wrestler, Wall-E, Slumdog, Bolt, Gran Torino

Sound Editing: Charts: Wall-E, Iron Man, Dark Knight, Button, Quantum of Solace

My Picks: Ditto (but come on Slumdog!)

Sound Mixing: Iron Man, Wall-E, Dark Knight, Button, Slumdog

My Picks: Iron Man, Dark Knight, Quantum of Solace, Wall-E, Slumdog

Make Up: Charts: Button, The Reader, Synecdoche NY

My Picks: Button, The Reader, Dark Knight

Visual Effects: Charts: Button, Iron Man, Dark Knight

My Picks: Ditto

Overall the Charts say:

Button 13 noms, Dark Knight 10, Slumdog 8, Milk 8, Frost/Nixon 5, Doubt 4 and The Wrestler 3

My Predictions: Button 12, Dark Knight 12, Slumdog 9, Milk 9, Doubt 6, Frost/Nixon 5 and The Wrestler 4.

Telluride gets 21 or so from Button and Slumdog and adds another 2 for Waltz with Bashir (Animation and Foreign) plus another Foreign (Everlasting Moments)...for a truly stunning showing at Oscar time...

Can't wait for tomorrow morning...

Oscar Clearinghouse #9 Jan. 16...Tech!

Here are the compilations of charts for the 10 technical categories using data from In Contention, Awards Circuit, Film Experience and The Oscar Guy. Also included are Guild nominations where appropriate...as always Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD:

Art Direction: BUTTON, Dark Knight, Australia, Changeling, The Reader

Lurkers (with a prayer): Revolutionary Road, Indiana Jones 3, Doubt

Guild Notes: Art Director's Guild Noms:

Period Art Direction: Changeling, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Milk

Fantasy Art Direction: The Dark Knight, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Iron Man, The Spiderwick Chronicles, Wall-E.

Comment: Button, Dark Knight and Changeling seem sure bets. Doubt is probable. Give the last spot to Milk.

Winner: Button

Cinematography: SLUMDOG, The Dark Knight, BENJAMIN BUTTON, Revolutionary Road, Australia.

Lurkers: The Reader, Milk, Defiance

Guild Notes: American Society of Cinematographers:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire.

Comment: Follow the Guild and replace Australia with The Reader for your nominations.

Winner: Slumdog

Costumes: BUTTON, The Duchess, Revolutionary Road, Changeling, and Australia.

Lurkers: The Other Boleyn Girl and Brideshead Revisited

Guild Notes: Costume Designers Guild:

Period Costume Design: Changeling, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Duchess, Milk, Revolutionary Road

Fantasy Costume Design: The Dark Knight, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor

Contemporary Costume Design: Iron Man, Mamma Mia!, Sex and the City, Slumdog Millionaire, The Wrestler

Comment: Button, Duchess, Rev Road, and Changeling are pretty good bets...The 5th spot...let's say: Milk

Winner: The Duchess

Film Editing: SLUMDOG, BUTTON, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk

Lurkers: Iron Man, The Reader

Guild Notes: American Cinema Editors Society:

Drama Film Editing: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire

Comedy/Musical Film Editing: In Bruges, Mamma Mia, Tropic Thunder, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E

Comment: The chart should lead you to the five nominees.

Winner: Slumdog

Score: BUTTON, SLUMDOG, Wall-E, Milk, Revolutionary Road.

Lurkers: Defiance, Indiana Jones 3, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, The Dark Knight.

Comment: I think Dark Knight replaces Rev Road for the nominees.

Winner: Button

Song: The Wrestler, Wall-E, SLUMDOG, Bolt, Cadillac Records

Lurking: Gran Torino, Hamlet 2, Quantum of Solace

Comment: I think the compiled charts get the first four right and that the 5th spot is a real tussle between Cadillac and Gran Torino...I lean toward Gran Torino for the fifth nomination.

Winner: The Wrestler/Springsteen

Sound Editing: Wall-E, Iron Man, Dark Knight, BUTTON, Quantum of Solace

Lurking: Indiana Jones 3, Defiance, SLUMDOG, Valkyrie

Comment: I will default to the chart...but this note: If Slumdog is really steaming along, I wouldn't be all that surprised at another nomination in this category.

Winner: Iron Man

Sound Mixing: Iron Man, Wall-E, Dark Knight, BUTTON, SLUMDOG.

Lurking: Quantum of Solace, Defiance

Guild Nominations: Cinema Audio Society:

Sound: The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Quantum of Solace, Slumdog Millionaire, Wall-E

Comment: Go with the Guild here...

Winner: Iron Man

Make-Up: BUTTON, The Reader, Synecdoche, NY

Lurking: Dark Knight, Hellboy II, Tropic Thunder, The Wrestler

Winner: Button

Visual Effects: BUTTON, Iron Man, Dark Knight

Lurking: Hellboy II, Journey to the Center of the Earth, Australia

Winner: Button

The combined charts say the nomination totals are as follows:

Benjamin Button 13

The Dark Knight 10

Slumdog and Milk 8

Frost/Nixon and Wall-E 5

Doubt 4

The Wrestler, Rev Road, The Reader, Changeling, Australia, and Iron Man 3

Total Telluride nominations excluding Doc, Short Doc and Foreign (which could be 3 more): 24

And finally: If you've read the previous posts you know that I'm guessing that Button loses at least one or two of it's charted nominations and Slumdog picks up one or two...so my prediction is 12 for Button and 9 for Slumdog...Also, I expect Waltz with Bashir to be a certain Foreign nominee and likely Everlasting Moments as well. Revanche is probably unlikely.

Oscar Clearinghouse # 8 Post Golden Globes Jan. 15

NOMINATIONS WILL BE ANNOUNCED IN ONE WEEK!!!

The Golden Globes are done and the list of Foreign film finalists have been announced (much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth again this year...one word: Gomorra).

Here is the the list for Foreign Film: (Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD)

Austria, REVANCHE (dir. Gotz Spielmann)
Canada, The Necessities of Life (dir. Benoit Pilon)
France, The Class (dir. Laurent Cantet)
Germany, The Baader Meinhof Complex (dir. Uli Edel)
Israel, WALTZ WITH BASHIR (dir. Ari Folman)
Japan, Departures (dir. Yojiro Takita)
Mexico, Tear This Heart Out, (dir. Roberto Sneider)
Sweden, EVERLASTING MOMENTS (dir. Jan Troell)
Turkey, 3 Monkeys (dir. Nuri Bilge Ceylan)

Golden Globe Winners: (Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD)

Picture, Drama: "SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE".
Picture, Musical or Comedy: "Vicky Cristina Barcelona."
Actor, Drama: Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler."
Actress, Drama: Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road."
Director: DANNY BOYLE,"SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE."
Actor, Musical or Comedy: Colin Farrell, "In Bruges."
Actress, Musical or Comedy: SALLY HAWKINS, "HAPPY-GO-LUCKY."
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight."
Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet, "The Reader."
Foreign Language Film: "WALTZ WITH BASHIR."
Animated Film: "Wall-E."
Screenplay: SIMON BEAUFOY, "SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE."
Original Score: A.R. RAHMAN, "SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE."
Original Song: "The Wrestler" (Bruce Springsteen)



On to the compilation of the Oscar Guessperts. (Includes: The L.A. Times Envelope, And the Winner Is, Everything Oscar, In Contention, Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, Awards Circuit, The Film Experience, Film Misery, and The Oscar Guy):

Best Picture: SLUMDOG MILLIONARIE, BENJAMIN BUTTON, Milk, Frost/Nixon, The Dark Knight.
Lukring: Doubt,Wall-E, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler, The Reader.
Comment: The 10 films in the lead stay the same. The only change is a switch in positons between Milk and Frost/Nixon. These top 5 get the nominations. The spoiler is Wall-E.

Direction: DANNY BOYLE/SLUMDOG, DAVID FINCHER/BUTTON, Gus Van Sant/Milk, Christopher Nolan/Dark Knight, Ron Howard/Frost/Nixon.
Lurking: Darren Aronofsky/Wrestler, Woody Allen/VC Barcelona, Jonathan Demme/Rachel, Sam Mendes/Rev Road, Steven Daldry/Reader.
Comment: Woody Allen makes a substantial move...up 2 spots. Revolutionary Road continues it's slide with Sam Mendes dropping 2 spots. Daldry returns to the list. Again, these top 5 are your nominees. There is always the possibility that the Academy has one of those years where the direction nominees and Best Picture vary by one...and that might open the door for Aronofsky, Allen or Demme.

Actor: Sean Penn/Milk, Frank Langella/Frost/Nixon, Mickey Rourke/The Wrestler, Richard Jenkins/The Visitor, Clint Eastwood/Gran Torino.
Lurking: BRAD PITT/BUTTON, Leonardo DiCaprio/RevRd, Josh Brolin/W, Benicio Del Toro/Che, Dustin Hoffman/Last Chance Harvey.
Comment: Minimal movement in this category. The top 5 are your nominees. I'd be surprised at this point if Pitt were able to sneak back into the mix.

Actress: Meryl Streep/Doubt, Anne Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married, Kate Winslet/Revolutionary Road, Angelina Jolie/Changeling, SALLY HAWKINS/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.
Lurking: Melissa Leo/Frozen River,CATE BLANCHETT/BUTTON, KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS/LOVED YOU SO LONG, Kate Beckinsale/Nothing but the Truth, Michelle Williams/Wendy & Lucy.
Comment: Again, no major movement. I think that Melissa Leo sneaks in and Sally Hawkins misses out.

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger/The Dark Knight, Philip Seymour Hoffman/Doubt, Josh Brolin/Milk, Robert Downey, Jr./Tropic Thunder, and James Franco/Milk.
Lurking: DEV PATEL/SLUMDOG, Michael Shannon/Rev Road, EDDIE MARSAN/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, Ralph Fiennes for both The Duchess and The Reader.
Comment: The only substantial drop is Fiennes for The Reader, down 2 spots. Keep the first four and swap Patel for Franco is my guess on the nominees.

Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz/VC Barcelona, Viola Davis/Doubt, Kate Winslet/The Reader, TARAJI P. HENSON/BENJAMIN BUTTON, and Marisa Tomei/The Wrestler.
Lurking: Amy Adams/Doubt, Rosemarie DeWitt/Rachel, Kathy Bates/Rev Road, Debra Winger/Rachel, TILDA SWINTON/BENJAMIN BUTTON.
Comment: Swinton appears for the first time. My guess is Amy Adams in and Taraji Henson out.

Adated Screenplay: SIMON BEAUFOY/SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, ERIC ROTH/BENJAMIN BUTTON, John Patrick Shanley/Doubt, Peter Morgan/Frost/Nixon, and the Nolan Brothers/The Dark Knight.
Lurking: The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Defiance, Gomorra, and Iron Man????
Comment: Dark Knight jumps up 2 spots (thanks WGA nom), Revolutionary Road down 2 and Iron Man appears on a couple of lists for the first time....really! My nom guesses are the top 5 listed here.

Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black/Milk, Woody Allen/VC Barcelona, Janet Lumet/Rachel Getting Married, Andrew Stanton/Wall-E, MIKE LEIGH/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.
Lurking: The Wrestler, The Visitor, Gran Torino, Burn After Reading, Changeling.
Comment: Again...not a lot of movement. And your guess is as good as anyone's. Taking a shot, I'm going with: Milk, Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler and Happy-Go-Lucky...at least for today...Rachel maybe......The Visitor...maybe.

And ANIMATION:

Noms: Wall-E, Kung Fu Panda, WALTZ WITH BASHIR.
Lurking: Bolt, Horton Hears a Who
Comment: The top 3 are your nominees!

Underview: Milk leads with 6 "Big 8" noms on the charts...
Button, Frost/Nixon, Doubt and Dark Knight each have 4
Slumdog has 3

The combo of noms and lurking shows:
Button and Rev Road with 7 (although Winslet now looks to be the only nom in the Big 8 categories), Milk and Doubt with 6, Wrestler, Rachel and Reader with 5, and Slumdog, Frost/Nixon and Dark Knight with 4.

I will try to post a compilation of Tech awards projections tomorrow and also predict total nominations for the major players. Also, I'll probably try to get one more post in before Oscar nominations are announced on the morning of Jan. 22....

Oscar Clearinghouse #7 Jan. 9, 2009 Post Guilds

Danny Boyle directing Slumdog Millionaire. Jan. 22 will be a big day for him!

The last of the guild noms are in. The DGA announced their five nominees yesterday so with the WGA, PGA and SAG...the picture seems to be clearing.

Slumdog: WGA, DGA,PGA and SAG: Cast and Patel/Supporting.

Button: WGA, DGA, PGA, and SAG: Cast, Pitt/Lead, Henson/Supporting

Frost/Nixon: WGA, DGA, PGA and SAG: Cast, Langella/Lead

Dark Knight: WGA, DGA, PGA and SAG: Ledger/Supporting

Milk: WGA, DGA, PGA and SAG: Cast, Penn/Lead, Brolin/Supporting

Doubt: WGA, SAG: Cast, Streep/Lead, Hoffman/Supporting, Adams/Supporting,Davis/Supporting

It's hard to believe that Doubt may get as many as 4 acting nominations and a screenplay nod and NOT be a Best Pic nominee. But that looks like what will happen...

Here are my picks as of today (they could change):

Picture: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk...Wall-E could surprise, Doubt, Rev Road, Reader all outside looking in...

Director: The DGA five above: Boyle, Nolan, Fincher, Howard, Van Sant...Andrew Stanton is your spoiler for Wall-E...Maybe a Demme for Rachel Getting Married.

Actor: Penn, Rourke, Langella, Jenkins, Eastwood...Pitt's the spoiler.

Actress: Streep, Winslet, Hathaway, Leo, and Jolie...Blanchett and/or Hawkins are the spoilers...KS Thomas outside...meaning the 3 Telluride actresses get shut out.

Supp Actor: Ledger, Hoffman, Brolin, Downey, Patel. The Slumdog train gets Patel a nomination. Spoiler: Franco.

Supp Actress: Cruz, Winslet, Davis, Tomei, Adams...Henson is the spoiler.

Adapted: Slumdog, Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Dark Knight...Rev Road/Reader = spoilers

Original: The biggest crap shoot! Milk, Wall-E, Barcelona, The Wrestler, Happy-Go-Lucky. Spoiler: The Visitor.

Big 8 nom predictions:

Slumdog: 4

Button: 3

Milk: 5

Doubt: 5

Dark Knight: 4

Frost/Nixon: 4

The Wrestler: 3

Other tidbits:

Slumdog had a big night at the Critic's Choice last night..still think it gets 9 noms overall AND Button may actually NOT get to double digit noms. For the first time, I think it may be possible that Slumdog and Button end up tied at 9 nominations each!

Oscar Clearinghouse #6...Jan. 6th Edition

Holidays have come and gone. Guild nominations are coming out. And the announcement of Oscar nominees is just a couple of weeks away. Doubt has gotten some big help of late as has Dark Knight. Revolutionary Road seems to be fading into the distance and Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button and Milk continue to hum along. Here's the latest breakdown of the combination of 8 Oscar prediction websites (The Envelope, And the Winner Is, Everything Oscar, In Contention, Gurus of Gold, Awards Circuit, Film Experience and The Oscar Guy) with TELLURIDE CONNECTIONS IN CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: SLUMDOG, BUTTON, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Dark Knight

Lurkers: Doubt, Wall-E, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler, The Reader

Comment: The top 5 remain the same from 2 weeks ago. The biggest movers are Wall-E jumping onto the list at #7 and Rev Road dropping 2 spots. I think the the top 3 are locks and then you have a fight for the last 2 spots between 4 pictures. I am a little surprised that Doubt's success at Golden Globe and SAG noms hasn't generated more heat over the past 2 weeks. Also, the PGA noms help Dark Knight and Frost/Nixon. Wall-E is making a late charge, but a lot of buzz seems to think that the charge is too late. Both Rev Road and The Reader seem to be out of the running at this point.

Director: BOYLE/SLUMDOG, FINCHER/BUTTON, Van Sant/Milk, Howard/Frost, and Nolan/Dark

Lurkers: Aronofsky/Wrestler, Mendes/Rev Road, Demme/Rachel Getting Married, Allen/Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Shanley/Doubt

Comment: As you might expect, the 5 at the top are the directors of the 5 best pix leaders. The only serious movement is Woody Allen jumping onto the list at #9. The rest has been very stable the past 2 weeks. The DGA nominations come out Thursday...will that provide any surprises?

Actor: Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Langella/Frost, Eastwood/Gran Torino, Jenkins/The Visitor

Lurkers: PITT/BUTTON, DiCaprio/Rev Road, Brolin/W, D. Hoffman/Last Chance Harvey, Del Toro/Che

Comment: Some significant movement in this category...Eastwood and Jenkins are both up 2 spots and DiCaprio drops 3...The top 3 spots remain the same...I am not surprised by Jenkins movement..The SAG nom shows his strength and it is a wonderful, understated performance. Eastwood's strength does surprise me...Gran Torino has dropped off the radar in every other category except screenplay...Seems to me that 4 spots are solid...Penn, Rourke, Langella, and Jenkins and that the 5th spot is a pick-em...Saw Button over the holidays and I gotta say, I'm firmly in the "eh" camp. Pitt's performance...ok, Blanchett...ok (and I'm a Blanchett fan)...Henson's performance...overdone. It's pretty, but doesn't move you. Or at least, me.

Actress: Streep/Doubt, Winslet/Rev Road, Hathaway/Rachel, Jolie/Changeling, HAWKINS/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.

Lurkers: Leo/Frozen River, THOMAS/LOVED YOU SO LONG, BLANCHETT/BUTTON, Beckinsale/Nothing But the Truth, Williams/Wendy and Lucy.

Comment: Melissa Leo is a big mover, up 2 spots (again, thanks to SAG) and Kristin Scott Thomas is a big mover, down 2 spots... Will the Rev Road swoon hurt Winslet who has consistently been dueling with Streep for the top spot in this category? I've said for months now that this could be the most Telluride intensive category...or a total wash...I think it's most likely to be a total wash at this point...i think it's a pretty good bet that Melissa Leo sneaks into the 5th spot displacing Sally Hawkins and that the 3 Telluride women end up with no noms at all.

Supporting Actor: Ledger/Dark Knight, PS Hoffman/Doubt, Brolin/Milk, Downey/Tropic Thunder, Franco/Milk.

Lurkers: Shannon/Rev Road, PATEL/SLUMDOG, Fiennes/Reader, MARSAN/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, Fiennes/The Duchess.

Comment: The only big mover here is Eddie Marsan in Happy-Go-Lucky, jumping onto the list at #9. Really? You know, it was entertaining little bubble of a film. And Sally Hawkins performance is good, but really? My guess at this point is that the top 4 get nommed and that Dev Patel rides the Slumdog wave and his SAG nom to the 5th spot, displacing James Franco.

Supporting Actress: Cruz/Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Winslet/Reader, Henson/Button, Tomei/Wrestler.

Lurkers: Adams/Doubt, DeWitt/Rachel, Bates/Rev Road, Winger/Rachel, ZYLBERSTEIN/LOVED YOU.

Comment: No major movement in this category. Probably 6 women fighting for the 5 spots..Adams helped by the SAG nom.

Adapted Screenplay: SLUMDOG, BUTTON, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, and Revolutionary Road.

Lurkers: Reader, Dark Knight, Defiance, GOMORRAH, and no #10.

Comment: Again, no big moves here. WGA noms are just around the corner. Does Rev Road survive to get a nom here?

Original Screenplay: Milk, Rachel, Barcelona, Wall-E, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.

Lurkers: Wrestler, Visitor, Gran Torino, Burn After Reading, The Changeling.

Comment: Gran Torino makes a jump onto the list at #8.

Underview: Milk looks solid for 6 noms (maybe 7) in the Big 8 categories. Revolutionary Road, which was an early frontrunner has dived to only 2 "noms" and I think those might be shaky. My guess right now is that Button leads all nominees with double digits. That Slumdog gets 9 noms (see the last post) and that Milk and Slumdog duke it out for Best Pic...Button wins some of the tech stuff...but no major award. Frost/Nixon will get nominated for several and not win a single award.

Winner Picks (at this point):

Orig Script: Milk

Adapted Script: Slumdog

Supp. Actress: Cruz

Supp. Actor:Ledger

Actress: Streep

Actor: Penn

Director: Boyle

Picture: Slumdog