FAC 2011 #1
Here's the first number crunching of predictions from select Oscarologists. This first go around includes: Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter, Kris Tapley of InContention at HitFix.com, Sasha Stone at Awards Daily, Film Experience and Film Misery. I'll add more Oscar predictors as the season progresses. Telluride films are
Big and Bold!
Best Picture:
1)
The Descendants
2)
The Artist
3) War Horse
4) J. Edgar
5) Moneyball
6) The Help
7) Tinker , Tailor, Soldier, Spy
8) Midnight in Paris
9) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
10) The Ides of March
11) The Tree of Life
Note: Most prognosticators are saying with the new "5 to 10" nominees rule that they expect 7-8 films to be nominated.
Comments: Descendants seems like the closest thing to a lock and even that's not really true. The race seems very, very fluid at this point. Moneyball seems to have gotten the biggest lift from Toronto and the surprise Audience Award winner there (Where Do We Go Now) actually would seem to point at some weakness for The Descendants and/or The Artist. Additionally, after seeing the trailer this week for "J. Edgar" (and admittedly, it's just the trailer) I have some pretty serious reservations about it ending up in the mix (as well as for Eastwood as director, DiCaprio in the Best Actor category). Right now, if I was actually betting real money, I'd be betting on the horse, War Horse...and Spielberg.
Best Direction:
1)
Michel Hazanavicius/Artist
2) Steven Spielberg/War Horse
3) Clint Eastwood/J. Edgar
4) Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris
5)
Alexander Payne/Descendants
6) Terrence Malick/Tree of Life
7) Tomas Alfredson/Tinker, Tailor
8) Bennett Miller/Moneyball
9) Stephen Daldry/Extremely Loud
Comment: The Best Picture race obviously will affect the five who end up with noms here. Most likely to be nommed without a Best Pic nom: Malick
Best Actress:
1) Meryl Streep/Iron Lady
2)
Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs
3) Viola Davis/The Help
4) Michele Williams/My Week with Marilyn
5) Elizabeth Olsen/Martha Mary Mae Marlene
6) Felicity Jones/Like Crazy
7)
Tilda Swinton/We Need...Kevin
8) Charlize Theron/Young Adult
9)
Keira Knightley/Dangerous Method
10) Rooney Mara/Girl..Tattoo
Comments: Right now, this is a pretty messy category as well. Davis would probably actually be at #1 save for the fact that one of our sources has her listed in Supporting...which is unlikely.
Best Actor:
1)
George Clooney (Descendants)
2) Gary Oldman (TTSS)
3) Leo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
4)
Jean Dujardin (Artist)
5) Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
6) Ryan Gosling (Ides of March)
7) Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)
8)
Michael Fassbender (Dangerous Method)
9)
Michael Fassbender (Shame)
10) Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo)
Comments: Clooney with the lead early, but no one is a lock. Pitt is riding a wave of Toronto and critical love. Personally I'd vote for Fassbender in Shame.
Best Supporting Actress:
1) Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus
2) Octavia Spencer/The Help
3)
Berenice Bejo/The Artist
4)
Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs
5)
Shailene Woodley/Descendants
6) Judi Dench /Marilyn
7) Jessica Chastain /Take Shelter
8) Sandra Bullock /Extremely Loud
9) Naomi Watts /J. Edgar
Comments: This category could be the most Telluride-centric thanks to McTeer, Bejo, and Woodley. Personally, I'm surprised and pleased to see this much love for Bejo and I am unabashedly championing the nomination of McTeer. Jessica Chastain, who has had an unbelievably fantastic year could well eliminate herself because of her great work in multiple films...and that's a shame. Speaking of Shame...I'm also apologetically campaigning for Carey Mulligan.
Best Supporting Actor:
1) Christopher Plummer/Beginners
2) Albert Brooks/Drive
3) Kenneth Brannagh/Marilyn
4) Nick Nolte/Warrior
5)
Viggo Mortensen/Dangerous Method
6) Philip Seymour Hoffman/Ides of March
7)
Ezra Miller/We Need...Kevin
8) Jonah Hill/Moneyball
9) Jim Broadbent/Iron Lady
Comments: It tells you a lot that Mortensen is in the conversation for a performance that he could have done in his sleep. I'm very pleased that Ezra Miller is at least in the conversation. His turn as Kevin in We Need to Talk...is incredible. Also, I saw Drive last weekend and liked it, didn't love it. Just like Brooks' performance...
Adapted Screenplay:
1)
The Descendants
2) Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
3) War Horse
4) Extremely Loud,and Incredibly Close
5) The Ides of March
6) Moneyball
7) Carnage
8) The Help/
We Need to Talk About Kevin
10)
A Dangerous Method
Comments: Descendants has a decent lead here.
Original Screenplay:
1) Midnight in Paris
2) J. Edgar
3)
The Artist
4) The Iron Lady
5) Like Crazy
6) Tree of Life
7) Martha Marcy Mae Marlene
8) Bridesmaids
9) 50/50
Comments: The category with the least Telluride impact, it would seem.
Totals:
The Descendants and The Artist each with 5 nominations in the BIG EIGHT categories.
Albert Nobbs with 2 nominations.
A Dangerous Method with 1 nomination and 3 possibles
We Need to Talk About Kevin with 3 possibles.
Shame with 1 possible.
Total for TFF#38 13 noms and 7 possibles.
Telluride will see some noms in the foreign film category and some other possibilities in the "tech" categories, but it is unlikely at this stage that Telluride's 2011 edition is going to match the nomination total it had last year. Even this early in 2010 there were strong indications that TFF #37 would get to 30 cumulative noms (and it actually surpassed that). This year looks to be somewhere in the 20-25 range...and maybe the low end of that.
FOREIGN FILM FUN
Pete Hammond has an in depth look at what's happening in that arena at Deadline.com. You can find that here:
http://www.deadline.com/2011/09/oscar-controversy-emerges-as-foreign-language-film-entry-deadline-looms/
NEW OSCAR RULES
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science appears to think that Oscar campaigning has gotten out of hand and has established some new, and kind of weird, rules to combat that perception. Are they enforceable?
Greg Kilday at The Hollywood Reporter took a good look at that development this past week and you can find the results of his labors here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/what-new-oscar-campaign-rules-238804
THE ARTIST IS A WINNER
A lot of people (including me) thought that Michel Hazanavicius' "The Artist" would win the audience award at Toronto last weekend and , boy, were we wrong. However, in a bit of redemption, the balck and white silent film won the same award yesterday at the San Sebastian Film Festival...
Two reports...first from Awards Daily:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2011/09/the-artist-wins-audience-award-at-san-sebastion-fest/
Also from Deadline.com:
http://www.deadline.com/2011/09/san-sebastian-the-artist-takes-audience-award-golden-shell-for-pasos-doble/
DRIVE AND MONEYBALL
I saw both of these films this week. "Drive" is good, but it's been oversold by a number of critics who seem shocked that it doesn't appear to be connecting to mainstream film goers...sounds a little like last year's hand wringing about "The Social Network". I liked it, didn't love it. I'm in for the moodiness and Gosling's brooding. Music is generally great except for the 2-3 times they get to playing that stuff with lyrics...then it distracts. Too many coincidences to make it plausible. And finally, Albert Brooks, I love you, but this is not an Oscar caliber performance.
"Moneyball", on the other hand is as good as the buzz coming out of its turn in Toronto. Pitt's performance is solid and Jonah Hill (who I admittedly am NOT a fan of) is quite good. Bennett Miller, who has been missing since "Capote" has done a fine directing job here. I think it has a real shot to be one of the 7-8 films that get a Best Picture nomination.
See you Thursday!
The ROS story is here:
