Clooney and Venice and TFF #37

George Clooney takes aim at the Venice Film Festival

A couple of reports that Clooney's "The American" is set for Venice which decreases its likelihood of being in Telluride.

Also, quite a bit of pundit back-and-forth on Malick's "The Tree of Life" being at Venice or not. Sasha Stone at Awards Daily is the latest to opine that "Tree" is probably NOT at Venice, but is likely for Toronto, which oddly, makes Telluride continue to be a possibility. http://www.awardsdaily.com/?p=23068

One other tidbit, "Betty Anne Waters" has a different title..."Conviction"

TFF #37...Coppola...Sofia not Francis Ford

Scene from Sofia Coppola's "Somewhere"

Anne Thompson reports that Sofia Coppola's new directorial effort "Somewhere" has been tabbed to premiere at the Venice Film Fest making it unlikely to be a pick at TFF #37.

TFF #37...Schnabel

(Freida Pinto in Julian Schnabel's "Miral")

Hollywood News Reports that The Weinstein Company has picked up distribution for Julian Schnabel"s "Miral." It tells the story of an attempt to establish an orphanage in post WWII Jerusalem and stars "Slumdog Millionaire" beauty Freida Pinto.

This probably signals a boost for its chances to appear at TFF #37. I was surprised it did not show up at Cannes.

The Weinstein Co. had "The Road" at Telluride last year and Schnabel was in Telluride with "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" in 2007...a really great film... and Schnabel was Oscar nominated as Best Director for that.

It's IMDB page is http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1366409/

TFF #37 and Post-Cannes

A shot from Palme D'Or winner "Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives"...will it be recalled in Telluride in September?

Belatedly, here's a quick rundown of the Cannes scuttlebutt and what it may mean for Telluride's 37th Film Fest.

A Partial List of Cannes Winners (the complete list can be found at http://www.festival-cannes.com/en/theDailyArticle/57863.html):

Palme D'Or: "Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives"

Grand Prix: "Of Gods and Men"

Director: Mathieu Almaric/"On Tour"

Jury Prize: "A Screaming Man"

Actor (tie) Javier Bardem/"Biutiful" and Elio Germana/"Our Life"

Actress: Juliette Binoche/"Certified Copy"

Screenplay: Lee Chang-dong/"Poetry"

From the "Un Certain Regard" Segment:

"Ha Ha Ha" and "October"

Indiewire put together a compendium of critical reactions to the Cannes festival...I've listed the films that rated a combined "B" or better (complete grades are here: http://www.indiewire.com/article/cannes_2010_the_guide )

Four films earned a collective "A-": "Uncle Boonmee," The documentary "Inside Job," "The Autobiography of Nicolae Ceausescu," and "Draquila - L'Italia che trema"

Films earning a collective "B-plus" were: "Abel," "Chantrapas," "Blue Valentine," Certified Copy," "Poetry, " "Carlos,"and Mike Leigh's "Another Year."

Films earning a collective "B" were: "Of Gods and Men," Life, Above All, "Tuesday, After Christmas," "I Wish I Knew," "Angelica," "Countdown to Zero, " "Heartbeats," and Godard's "Socialism"

What does all this mean???

As mentioned in earlier posts, I think "Another Year" is a virtual lock. And "Uncle Boonmee" and "Biutuful" have increased their likelihood of being in Telluride on Labor Day. I also think "Certified Copy," "Poetry," "On Tour," and "Of Gods and Men" have upped their chances.

I also still think that "Blue Valentine" might follow the path blazed by "An Education" last year and cruise into Telluride despite having been preemed at Sundance.

And Woody Allen's new film ("You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger)....maybe not so much.

Still hoping for Malick's "The Tree of Life"....

And finally, I am headed to Telluride for the the graduation of Ms. Katie Mallard (THS Class of 2010) We understand that "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" will be playing at The Nugget. Might try to catch it there. I have a friend that says its the best movie he's seen in a long time...

More as it becomes available (and as Toronto begins to announce its lineup, because there is usually a big overlap between the two...while almost zero overlap with the Venice Film Fest)...

In Santa Fe to relax. 3 things: In Contention has posted Oscar guesses for 2010, K. Tapley reported here in SF and will post about Cannes on Thurs. BOONMEE!

TFF #37 and Cannes

Word out of Cannes today that Sony Picture Classics has picked up the distribution for Mike Leigh's "Another Year". As I write, it still seems to be the biggest critical darling of Cannes and the days are dwindling for that Festival. The SPC decision increases it's chances to be a Telluride picture. I'm almost to the point of saying "count on it" being at TFF #37.

Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu's "Biutiful" has apparently earned split reactions, and very vehement disagreement between critics. I still think it's got a pretty good shot.

Godard's "Socialism" on the other hand sounds like it has landed with a thud and thus drops in our estimation of it's likelihood of being in Telluride.

"Blue Valentine" is getting good press. The knock on it is that it was a Sundance picture, which used to be a disqualifier for Telluride, til last year, when "An Education" showed up both places...so, maybe.

That's what we have for now...check in later...

Cannes update and TFF #37 speculation

Mike Leigh's "Another Year" seems to be the only film in Cannes first few days gaining much traction. Everything else thus far seems to be drawing as much criticism as praise. Including Woody Allen's "You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger". So you'd have to think Leigh's Telluride stock is up and Allen's is down.

Cannes runs through May 23rd. I'll update this space as critical reception merits from France.

Bon Jour!

Tff #37 Beyond the Poster

As we reported earlier today, the Festival has a poster, though there is some indication that there may be another poster before the fest begins on Sept. 3. Also there is speculation in the LA Times story about Ralph Eggleston's design that Danny Boyle's "127 Hours" may show at the SHOW. John Horn's article concludes:

"While the festival is eager to announce its posters early, it never releases its film lineup until the day the festival opens. But there's already one high-profile film that might be in the Telluride mix if it can be completed in time: Boyle's "127 Hours," a drama about hiker Aron Ralston (played in the film by James Franco), who amputated his own right hand after being pinned by a rock in a 2003 Utah back country accident."

We reported it as a possibility a couple of posts back...

TFF #37...Poster!!!

No real news or rumors to report, but the poster for TFF #37 is out...And here it is from Pixar artist Ralph Eggleston. The word "whimsical" comes to mind...Reportedly it is inspired by the Classic multiple Oscar winner "It Happened One Night" starring Clark Gable and Claudette Colbert...

Cannes and TFF#37

Anthony Hopkins and Naomi Watts on the set of Woody Allen's "You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger" set to appear at the Cannes Film Festival next month.

Here are the films chosen for inclusion in the Cannes Film Festival announced last weekend. You can almost certainly count on seeing 6-12 of these at TFF #37 if past trends hold true. I have included some notes for some of the films that may have the best likelihood of being in Telluride.

IN COMPETITION

Tournee, directed by Mathieu Almaric...25% chance...

Des Hommes des Dieux, directed by Xavier Beauvois

Biutiful, directed by Alejandro Gonzales Innaritu...maybe the most likely due to “Babel’s” success at Telluride

Hors-la-loi, directed by Rachid Bouchareb

Un Homme Qui Crie, directed by Mahamat-Saleh

HarounHousemaid, directed by Im Sangsoo

Copie Conforme, directed by Abbas Kiarostami

Outrage, directed by Takeshi Kitano

Poetry, directed by Lee Chang-dong

Another Year, directed by Mike Leigh...”Happy Go Lucky” 2 years ago

Fair Game, directed by Doug Liman...just got a feeling

You, My Joy, directed by Sergei Lovnitsa...ditto

La Nostra Vita, directed by Daniele Luchetti

Utomlyonnye Solntsem 2, directed by Nikita Mikhalkov

La Princesse de Monptpensier, directed by Bertrand Tavernier...because it's Tavernier

Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives, directed by Apichatpong Weerasethakul...intuition again

OUT OF COMPETITION

You Will Meet A Tall Dark Stranger, directed by Woody Allen...because its SPC

Tamara Drewe, directed by Stephen Frears...because its Frears

Wall Street – Money Never Sleeps, directed by Oliver Stone

MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS

Kaboom, directed by Gregg Araki

L’Autre Monde (Blackhole), directed by Gilles Marchand

UN CERTAIN REGARD

Blue Valentine, directed by Derek Cianfrance...only a guess

O Estranho Caso de Angelica, directed by Manouel de Oliveira

Les Amours Imaginaires (Heartbeats), directed by Xavier Dolan

Los Labios, directed by Ivan Fund and Santiago LozaSimon

Werner a Disparu… directed by Fabrice Gobert

Film Socialisme, directed by Jean-Luc Godard...because its Godard and a doc

Unter Dir Die Stadt (The City Below), directed by Christoph Hochhausler

Rebecca H. (Return to the Dogs), directed by Lodge Kerrigan

Pal Adreinn (Adrienn Pal), directed by Agnes Kocsis

Udaan, directed by Vikramaditya Motwan

Marti Dupa Craciun (Tuesday, After Christmas), directed by Radu Muntean

Chatroom, directed by Hideo Nakata

Aurora, directed by Cristi Puiu...Romainia returns to TFF?

Ha Ha Ha, directed by Hong Sangsoo

Life Above All, directed by Oliver Schmitz

Octubre, directed by Daniel Vega

R U There, directed by David Verbeek

Rizhao Chongqing (Chongqing Blues), directed by Xiaoshuai Wang

SPECIAL SCREENINGS

Inside Job, directed by Charles Ferguson

Over Your Cities Grass Will Grow, directed by Sophie Fiennes

Nostalgia for the Light, directed by Patricio Guzman

Draquila - L’Italia Che Trema, directed by Sabina Guzzanti

Chantrapas, directed by Otar Iosseliani

Abel, directed by Diego Luna

Other notes...reportedly Cannes organizers might still slip in Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life” if it’s “finished”...doesn’t seem likely now, which may increase its chances at being at Telluride.
I was a little surprised that I did not see Julian Schnabel’s “Miral” or Sofia Coppola’s “Somewhere”.

Updating the First Call

Thanks to the fine folks at Rope of Silicon we can add some other possibilities to our list for TFF #37...


Some more possibles (and why):




"127 Hours"...Danny Boyle's post-Slumdog feature from Fox Searchlight...James Franco stars. You have to think that they'd want to try to repeat the track that led to 8 Oscars for Slumdog (much like Jason Reitman sneaking "Up in the Air" at TFF #36 clearly following the path that "Juno" had established). Also it's scripted by "Slumdog" wirter Simon Beaufoy and is based on the true story of a hiker trapped in the Utah wilderness and forced to make desperate choices about his own life and death.





"Another Year"...Mike Leigh directs...and has a history with Telluride including "Happy Go Lucky" two years ago. Jim Broadbent (also featured two years ago at TFF#35 in "When Did You Last See Your Father") and Imelda Staunton star.






"Casino Jack"...George Hickenlooper directs Kevin Spacey in a telling of the Jack Abramoff scandal with Spacey as Abramoff. Rumored for a Cannes slot.






"The Descendants"...TFF #36 Guest Director Alexander Payne directs George Clooney in this domestic dramedy set in Hawaii. From Fox Searchlight. With Payne directing, and Fox Search producing, this is the film that might get Clooney to show up in the San Juans over Labor Day.


"Love Ranch"...Taylor Hackford (who was at TFF last year with his wife, Helen Mirren) directs Helen Mirren (who was at TFF last year with "The Last Station"...and it led to her Best Actress nomination). Based on the story of the husband and wife who established the first legal brothel in Nevada. Joe Pesci also stars.


"Miral" directed by Julian Schnabel. His first film since TFF #35"s "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"...straight up one of the ten best films of the first decade of the 21st century. Schnabel directs Willem Dafoe, who was at TFF #36 with "Adam Resurrected" and Freida Pinto of "Slumdog Millionaire"...which had a TFF #36 pedigree as well. The story focuses on the attempt to establish an orphanage in 1948 in Jerusalem.


And as mentioned previously...remove "Chloe" from the possible list as it opens soon...I need to pay more attention.

Other notes: Carey Mulligan has reportedly dropped out of "Brighton Rock". "The Tree of Life" is purportedly set to be released in November...but it's Terrence Malick...so...

Scratch Chloe as a possible for TFF #37...opening soon...

In Santa Fe for spring break. Word is that the cast and crew for the Coen Bros. re-imagining of True Grit are here to brgin filming. May try to track 'em down

TFF #37...Coming Soon to a Mountain Near You! (well Sept. 3-6)

Well, before we go away for awhile (and we may not stay away as much or as long as we have in the past)...we thought we'd collate some information and speculation to take our first stab at guessing some films that may show at the SHOW... and why we think they might. (Our thanks to In Contention and Ioncinema...their 2010 Oscar guesses and Cannes guesses are what are forming the basis for this first attempt...5 1/2 months before it happens!)

Here goes nothin'...

1) "Betty Anne Waters"...why...Fox Searchlight...Tony Goldwyn directs Hilary Swank looking to come back after the dud that was "Amelia" http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1244754/

2) "Biutiful"...why...Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu directing his first film since "Babel" and "Babel" had a great start at Telluride in 2006...He might be back. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1164999/

3) "Black Swan"...why...Fox Searchlight...Darren Aronofsky directing after "The Wrestler" http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0947798/

4) "The Eagle of the Ninth"...why...Kevin Mcdonald is the director and he has been a Telluride favorite with his last two projects: "My Enemies Enemy" and "The Last King of Scotland".

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1034389/

5) "Chloe"...why...Sony Pictures Classics...which has a great relationship with TFF...Julianne Moore and Liam Neeson star in this feature from Atom Egoyan...whose "Adoration" played at Cannes...and Cannes is another indicator of a possible Telluride presentation. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1352824/

6) "Howl" ...why...Because it seems to be the kind of unusual film that does get chosen...like "Fur" in 2006 or "I'm Not There" in 2007. This is the Allen Ginsburg picture starring James Franco. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1049402/

7) "Never Let Me Go"...why...Fox Searchlight...and it stars Sally Hawkins ("Happy Go Lucky" her last in Telluride in 2008) and Carey Mulligan (who was the belle of the Telluride ball last year with "An Education"). http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1334260/

8) "Rabbit Hole"...why...also Fox Searchlight...and it seems to be the kind of film that might be connected to a tribute (like "The Road" and Viggo Mortensen last year and "Benjamen Button" and David Fincher in 2008). Nicole Kidman and Aaron Eckhardt star in the film adaptation of the Pulitzer Prize Winning play. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0935075/

9) "You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger"...why...It's from Sony Pictures Classics. It's rumored to be in the Cannes lineup. It already has some speculation that it might be Telluride-bound (Hit Fix). Why not??? I have a hard time believing that Woody Allen shows up in the San Juans on Labor Day...but, if he did... http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1182350/

10) "Love and Other Drugs"...why...Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere has speculated that it might be a part of the Telluride lineup. The film stars Anne Hathaway and Jake Gyllenhall...already some Oscar buzz for Hathaway... http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0758752/

Others from the "well, maybe..." list: Jodie Foster's "The Beaver", Carey Mulligan and Helen Mirren (both at TFF #36) in "Brighton Rock", Sofia Coppola's "Somewhere", "The Rum Diary" with Johnny Depp in Hunter S. Thompson's story, "My Own Love Song" starring Renee Zellweger and Forest Whitaker (who won his Oscar for "Last King" after it got its start at Telluride), "The Social Network", David Fincher's post-Button project.

AND THE HOLY GRAIL(S) FOR THIS FALL:

The Coen Brothers re-invention of "True Grit" with Oscar winner Jeff Bridges as Rooster Cogburn and Terrence Malick's "The Tree of Life" with Brad Pitt and Sean Penn.

True Grit: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1403865/

Tree: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0478304/

O...we can only hope...

The Verdict/The Oscar Clearinghouse

Ms. Bigelow...a big night for her...

Well...I have hesitated to post since Sunday night because I have been extraordinarily busy in the real world this week and because the prediction success was less than stellar. I managed to miss about every category that seemed to be the least bit competitive...so,

If there were surprises to be found they occurred when Precious won adapted screenplay and Hurt Locker won Sound Editing and Sound Mixing...Maybe a little surprise that The Secret of Her Eyes won Foreign Film, but there had been some buzz that that might be the case the last couple of weeks before the ceremony.

I also managed to goob the categories that receive less attention, missing Short Doc, Live Short and Animated Short... and if you're supposed to be any good at this, that's where you should shine. Overall, I got 14 right and missed on 10...and cannot point to a single pick this year that makes me look prescient.

Time for a break...I will probably post one more speculative pre-summer analysis for this falls TFF line-up and then the blog will be gone for the next 3 months or so...We'll crank the blog back up again in late May/early June to start the real speculation for TFF #37...and actually that's already begun. We've already reported Jeff Wells' speculation that the Hathaway/Gyllenhall starrer Love and Other Drugs might show up on Labor Day...and late last week Hit Fix suggested that Woody Allen's new film "You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger" might also be in line....

More in a couple of days...

The Oscar Clearinghouse #12...Last Call???

Probably the last post til it's all over on Sunday night. Here's the best guesses...

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow-The Hurt Locker

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges-Crazy Heart

Best Actress: Meryl Streep-Julie and Julia (bold, huh?)

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique-Precious

Best Supporting Actor-Christoph Waltz-Inglourious Basterds

Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (bit of a surprise over Hurt Locker)

Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air

Animated Film: Up

Foreign: The White Ribbon

Cinematography: The Hurt Locker (bit of a surprise over Avatar...tho White Ribbon w/n surprise me either)

Film Editing: The Hurt Locker

Art Direction: Avatar

Sound Editing: Avatar

Sound Mixing: Avatar

Visual Effects: Avatar

Makeup: Star Trek

Score: Up

Song: The Weary Kind-Crazy Heart

Costumes: Young Victoria

Documentary: The Cove

Short Doc: The Last Truck

Live Short: The Door

Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Comments:

1) Only 5 categories are the least bit competitive, if the conventional wisdom is correct...Actress (and that's probably just me that thinks it's competitive. I seem to be very lonely picking Streep...everything else says it's Bullock's to win), Foreign Film, Editing, Cinematography and Original Screenplay.

2) My totals if correct: Hurt Locker-4, Avatar-4, Up-2, Crazy Heart-2 and Inglourious Basterds-2...as your only multiple winners.

3) Telluride films win 4 Oscars if I'm right...Adapted Screenplay for Up in the Air, Foreign Film for The White Ribbon, Short Doc-The Last Truck and Live Short-The Door.

And this last word...Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere speculates that "Love and Other Drugs" featuring Anne Hathaway and Jake Gyllenhall may be in line to play at TFF #37...so the game begins anew!

See you on the other side...

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearingouse #11

With less than two weeks until Oscar night...almost no suspense...

TFF #36 films in bold

Here's the distilled wisdom from The Envelope, And the Winner Is, The Oscar Guy, Gurus of Gold, The Awards Circuit, Rope of Silicon and Film Misery...

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker edges Avatar. No other really serious competition. If there was an upset...Inglourious Basterds or Up in the Air. Least Likely Winner: The Blind Side

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow is WAY OUT FRONT. Cameron is a distant second. Least Likely: Lee Daniels for Precious

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges in a walk. Clooney a distant challenger. Least Likely: Morgan Freeman.

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock has a big lead with Meryl Streep her only real competition (this is where I think an upset happens and Streep wins). Least Likely: Helen Mirren

Best Supporting Actor: Engrave Christoph Waltz's trophy now. Purported challenge: Harrelson. Least Likely: Matt Damon

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique (and has been for months)...if there were a challenger it might be: Anna Kendrick (but she won't be). Least Likely: Penelope Cruz

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air is the massive favorite. Challenger...uh...Precious? Least Likely: In the Loop

Best Original Screenplay: An actual fight here! Hurt Locker has a tiny lead over Basterds (I'm leaning towards Basterds)...Least Likely: The Messenger

Animated: Up...Duh. Least Likely: The Secret of Kells

Documentary: The Cove has a substantial edge over Food Inc. Least Likely: Which Way Home

Foreign: Hey...an actual contested category...a 3 way battle brewing between The White Ribbon, A Prophet and The Secret of Her Eyes

Short Doc: The Last Truck way out front

Live Short: The Door in the lead

Art Direction: Avatar is the prohibitive favorite...Least Likely: Parnassus

Cinematography: A close race with Avatar barely in front of The Hurt Locker. Least Likely: Harry Potter

Costumes: Young Victoria is the prohibitive favorite. Least Likely: Parnassus

Film Editing: A close battle here again with Hurt Locker leading Avatar slightly. Least Likely: Precious

Sound Editing: Avatar is way out front. Least Likely: Inglourious Basterds

Sound Mixing: Again Avatar in a walk. Least Likely: Transformers

Visual Effects: Anyone think Avatar doesn't win this? Least Likely...well the other two

Score: Up has a big lead here. Least Likely: The Hurt Locker

Song: The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart easily. Least Likely: Paris 36

Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Final thoughts and personal predictions next week...

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse

The Official Telluride Film Festival Website has posted a brief release touting the films that played the fest this year and have been Oscar nominated.

You can find it here:

http://telluridefilmfestival.org/news/2010-02

Coming this week...charting the favorites to win on March 7...

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse # 10

Here are this morning's Oscar nominations courtesy of Entertainment Weekly:

Best Picture:

Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air

Comment: Blind Side in and Invictus out. I'm not surprised that Invictus didn't get nominated...I am a little surprised that The Blind Side is what grabbed what had been its spot for the last several months. The Chart goes

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart, George Clooney, Up in the Air, Colin Firth, A Single Man, Morgan Freeman, Invictus, Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker.

Comment: Chart and I both said these five. Seems the Invictus swoon did not sink either Freeman or Damon.
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side, Helen Mirren, The Last Station, Carey Mulligan, An Education, Gabourey Sidibe, Precious, Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia.

Comment: Again, the chart and I 5 for 5...no surprises at all here.

Best Supporting Actor: Matt Damon, Invictus, Woody Harrelson, The Messenger, Christopher Plummer, The Last Station, Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones, Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds.

Comment: Again 5 for 5 with the chart. I lose out having picked The Hurt Locker's Anthony Mackie instead of Damon. I was personally still hoping for a little love for Alfred Molina.

Best Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz, Nine, Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart, Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air, Mo’Nique, Precious .

Comment: The chart hits 4 of 5...missing Maggie Gyllenhall for Julianne Moore. i missed that as well in addition to thinking Samantha Morton could supplant Penelope Cruz...so I go 3 for 5.

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker, James Cameron, Avatar, Lee Daniels, Precious, Jason Reitman, Up in the Air, Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds.

Comment: Done and done.

Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker, Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman, The Messenger, Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man, Pete Docter, Bob Peterson & Tom McCarthy, Up, Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds .

Comment: Chart and I 4 for 5...missed The Messenger for (500) Days of Summer...and makes you wonder if The Messenger was kind of close in the Best Picture category?

Best Adapted Screenplay: Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci & Tony Roche, In the Loop, Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell, District 9, Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious, Nick Hornby, An Education, Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air .

Comment: The Chart goes 4 for 5 and I go 3 for 5. The Chart and I both miss "In the Loop" I also had Julie and Julia instead of District 9. In the Loop wasn't a total surprise as it had been floating around the chart on and off for quite some time.

Best Animated Film: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, Up.

Comment: Me and the chart 4 for 5. "The Secret of the Kells"???What the?

Best Foreign Language Film: El Secreto do Sus Ojos (Argentina), Un Prophete (France), The White Ribbon (Germany), Ajami (Israel), The Milk of Sorrow (Peru).

Comment:3 for 5 for the chart and me...I think the absence of Samson and Delilah is kind of a surprise.
Best Art Direction: Avatar, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, Sherlock Holmes, The Young Victoria .

Comment: Man, am I glad I didn't pick the tech categories this year...the chart goes 1 for 5...sheesh...It got Avatar right and missed everything else.

Best Cinematography:Avatar, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The White Ribbon

Comment:Chart hits 4 for 5 missing Harry Potter with Nine

Best Costume Design: Bright Star, Coco Before Chanel, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, The Young Victoria.

Comment: Chart goes 3 for 5 missing Parnassus and Coco with Basterds and Sherlock.

Best Documentary: Burma VJ, The Cove, Food, Inc., The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers, Which Way Home.

Comment: Chart was a whopping 2 for 5. Most Dangerous Man was sort of a surprise...Which Way Home is a stunner.

Best Editing: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious.

Comment: $ for 5. Missing Precious for UITA...

Best Makeup: Il Divo, Star Trek, The Young Victoria.

Comment: 1 for 3...

Best Score: Avatar, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Hurt Locker, Sherlock Holmes, Up.

Comment: Chart goes 3 for 5. Missed Fox and The Hurt Locker.

Best Song: “Almost There,” The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman,

“Down in New Orleans,” The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman

“Loin de Paname,” Paris 36, Reinhardt Wagner & Frank Thomas

“Take It All,” Nine, Maury Weston

“The Weary Kind,” Crazy Heart, T-Bone Burnett & Ryan Bingham

Comment: 3 for 5 with Take It All being the big surprise.

Best Sound Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek, Up

Comment: 3 for 5...

Best Sound Mixing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious , Trek, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Comment: 4 for 5

Best Visual Effects: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek

Comment: Got 'em...there's a shocker!

Best Documentary Short: China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province, The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner, The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant, Music by Prudence, Rabbit à la Berlin

Best Animated Short: French Roast, Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty, The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) Logorama, A Matter of Loaf and Death

Best Live-Action Short:The Door, Instead of Abracadabra, Kavi, Miracle Fish, The New Tenants

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse # 9

Final number-crunching before tomorrow's nominations (data from : And the Winner Is, In Contention, Movie City News, The Oscar Guy, Awards Circuit, Rope of Silicon and Film Misery)...TELLURIDE PICS IN CAPS AND BOLD...

Opening notes: DGA/PGA wins for The Hurt Locker...is it the lock to win Best Picture now??? I had thought for some time that Cameron would win Best Director and that Up in the Air would win Best Picture...I'm re-evaluating that now...

Best Picture: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Avatar, 3) Inglorious Basterds, 4) UP IN THE AIR, 5) Precious, 6) AN EDUCATION, 7) Up, 8) Invictus, 9) District 9, 10) A Serious Man.

Spoilers: The Messenger, (500) Days of Summer, Nine, The Hangover, Star Trek

Comment:The top ten are so far out front that if anything else got a nod it would be pretty shocking...so look for a shocker or two...

My picks: I'll go with the chart...but...Messenger in and Invictus out???

Best Director: 1) Bigelow/Locker, 2) Cameron/Avatar, 3) Tarantino/Basterds, 4) REITMAN/UITA, 5) Daniels/Precious

Spoilers: Blomkamp/Dist. 9, Eastwood/Invictus

My Picks: Charts are right, no surprises here.

Best Actor: 1) Jeff Bridges/Crazy Heart, 2) GEORGE CLOONEY/UITA, 3) Colin Firth/A Single Man, 4) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker, 5) Morgan Feeman/Invictus

Spoilers: MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, Maguire/Brothers

My Picks: Gotta agree with the chart...although, like everything else with Invictus, Freeman has been losing steam...

Best Actress: 1) Sandra Bullock/The Blind Side, 2) Meryl Streep/Julie and Julia, 3) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 3) Gabourey Sidibe/Precious, 5) HELEN MIRREN/THE LAST STATION.

Spoilers: Emily Blunt/Young Victoria, ABBY CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, Marion Cotillard/Nine

My Picks: These 5 have been set for a long time.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christoph Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) Woody Harrelson/The Messenger, 3) Stanley Tucci/The Lovely Bones, 4) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/THE LAST STATION, 5) Matt Damon/Invictus

Spoliers: ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, Anthony Mackie/The Hurt Locker, Christian McKay/Orson Welles and Me

My Picks: Take the top 4 but move Matt Damon out in favor of Anthony Mackie.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique, 2) ANNA KENDRICK/UITA, 3) VERA FARMIGA/UITA, 4) Julianne Moore/A Single Man, 5) Penelope Cruz/Nine

Spoilers: Samantha Morton/The Messenger, MaggieGyllenhall/Crazy Heart

My Picks: There's a real battle royale for the fifth spot here. I'll go with the chart top 4 and Samantha Morton.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) Precious, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) District 9, 5) Crazy Heart

Spoliers: Fantastic Mr. Fox, A Single Man, Julie and Julia

My Picks: No place else is the collapse of Invictus more clearly seen than in this category. It's totally gone...I'll go with UITA, Precious, EDUCATION, Crazy Heart and Julie and Julia.

Best Original Screenplay: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Inglorious Basterds, 3) (500) Days of Summer, 4) Up, 5) A Serious Man

Spoliers: The Hangover, Avatar

My Picks: Go with the charted 5

Best Foreign Film: 1) (tie) A PROPHET and THE WHITE RIBBON, 3)Ajami, 4) SAMSON AND DELILAH, 5) Winter in Wartime

Spoiler: Kelin

My Picks: I'll agree with the chart.

Best Documentary: 1) (tie) Food Inc and The Cove, 3) Every Little Step, 4) Mugabe and the White African, 5) Under Our Skin

Spoilers: Beaches of Agnes, Burma VJ, Facing Ali, Valentino: The Last Emperor.

My Picks: Food, Cove, Every Little Step, Facing Ali and Beaches of Agnes

Short Doc: LAST TRUCK, Lt. Wataba, Music by Prudence, Tell Them Anything

My Picks: OK

Tech Nominations:

Art Direction: Avatar, Inglorious Basterds, A Serious Man, Public Enemies and Where the Wild Things Are. Spoilers: Sherlock Holmes, District 9, Start Trek, Bright Star

Cinematography: Avatar, Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Nine, THE WHITE RIBBON. Spoilers: District 9

Costumes: BRIGHT STAR, Inglorious Basterds, Nine, Sherlock Holmes, Young Victoria

Spoilers: COCO BEFORE CHANEL

Film Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, UP IN THE AIR, District 9, Inglorious Basterds

Spoilers: Star Trek

Makeup: District 9, Star Trek, Dr. Parnassuss

Original Score: Avatar, The Informant!, Sherlock Holmes, Up, A Singlr Man

Spoiler: Fantastic Mr. Fox

Original Song: Crazy Heart, Nine, everybody's Fine, Princess and the Frog, Where the Wild Things Are

Spoilers: Second nominations for Nine and/or Princess and the Frog

Sound Editing: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Star Trek, Transformers

Spoiler:Up

Sound Mixing: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek, The Hurt Locker, Transformers

Spoiler: Up

Visual Effects: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek

Spoiler:2012

Animated: 1) Up, 2) Fantastic Mr. Fox, Coraline, 4) The Princess and the Frog, 5) Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

Spoiler: Ponyo

Multiple Nominations per the charts:

Avatar-9

The Hurt Locker-8

UP IN THE AIR, Inglorious Basterds, District 9-7

Precious, Nine, Star Trek-5

Up-4

AN EDUCATION, Invictus, A Serious Man, Crazy Heart, A Single Man-3

THE WHITE RIBBON, THE LAST STATION, Sherlock Holmes, Princess and the Frog, Transformers-2

Comments: It's hard for me to believe that The Messenger, Crazy Heart, A Single Man and The Last Station may end up with multiple acting nominations, but NOT get into the expanded field of 10 Best Picture nominees. I can see each of them eking out an extra nom or two for screenplay or costuming and slipping into the ten...What are the films that are currently on the chart that are vulnerable: Invictus, Up, A Serious Man, District 9...

Saw The Hurt Locker this weekend, finally...good, not great...over-rated! Capping what has turned out to be a fairly mediocre year...

Last play for why The Road could sneak in...Moretensen is loved...and it's a good performance...they have to fill 10 spots. It's on 18 top ten lists (currently at #28 on the Movie City News critics scoreboard for the year...but a lot of what is ahead of it won't have a shot at a nomination...)and it was the best film of the year...

Watch for....

* If Maggie Gyllenhall gets nommed for Crazy Heart and/or it gets a screenplay nod...it's got a shot at a Best Picture nom

*If A Single Man gets a screenplay nom...it could be in the Best Picture pool

*If Samantha Morton gets a nomination...The Messenger could be a Best Picture nom

*If Matt Damon does NOT get a Supporting nom...Invictus is in some trouble

*If The Last Station gets a screenplay nom...it could be in the Best Picture lineup

And finally...if the charts are correct, TFF #36 will post 18 nominations tomorrow...