FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS
Hello all. Here are my final Oscar nomination predictions. The announcement comes tomorrow morning and MTFB will have a Special Edition tomorrow to review the noms and set the table for the run to the Oscar ceremony on March 12th.
A couple of notes: My success rate historically is 75%-80%. In categories where I don't get all five (10 in Best Picture) correct, the 6th ranked contender is a nominee about 75% of the time.
As always TFF films/performers are in Bold.
Here we go...
BEST PICTURE
1) Everything Everywhere All at Once
2) The Banshees of Inisherin
3) The Fabelmans
4) Top Gun: Maverick
5) TAR
6) Elvis
7) Avatar: The Way of Water
8) All Quiet on the Western Front
9) The Whale
10) Women Talking
11) Triangle of Sadness
12) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Other possibilities: Aftersun, Living, GDT's Pinocchio, The Woman King, RRR, Babylon
BEST DIRECTION
1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans
2) The Daniels/Everything Everywhere All at Once
3) Todd Field/TAR
4) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin
5) Edward Berger/All Quiet on the Western Front
6) Joseph Kosinski/Top Gun: Maverick
7) Baz Luhrman/Elvis
Other possibilities: James Cameron/Avatar, Sarah Polley/Women Talking, Ruben Ortlund/Triangle of Sadness
BEST ACTRESS
1) Cate Blanchett/TAR
2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once
3) Danielle Deadwyler/Till
4) Ana de Armas/Blonde
5) Viola Davis/The Woman King (5)
6) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans
7) Margot Robbie/Babylon
Other possibilities: Olivia Colman/Empire of Light, Andrea Riseborough/To Leslie, Emma Thompson/GoodLuck to You Leo Grande
BEST ACTOR
1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale
2) Austin Butler/Elvis
3) Colin Ferrell/The Banshees of Inisherin
4) Bill Nighy/Living
5) Paul Mescal/Aftersun
6) Tom Cruise/Top Gun: Maverick (5)
7) Tom Hanks/A Man Called Otto
Other possibilities: Adam Sandler/Hustle, Gabriel LaBelle/The Fabelmans, Hugh Jackman/The Son
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
2) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin
3) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once
4) Hong Chau/The Whale
5) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once
6) Dolly DeLeon/Triangle of Sadness
7) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans
Other possibilities: Janelle Monae/Glass Onion, Jesse Buckley/Women Talking, Carey Mulligan/She Said
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once
2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin
3) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin
4) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans
5) Eddie Redmayne/The Good Nurse
6) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans
7) Brad Pitt/Babylon
Other possibilities: Ben Whishaw/Women Talking, Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Women Talking
2) Living
3) All Quiet on the Western Front
4) The Whale
5) Glass Onion
6) She Said
7) Top Gun: Maverick
Other possibilities: White Noise, GDT's Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) The Banshees of Inisherin
2) Everything Everywhere All at Once
3) TAR
4)The Fabelmans
5) Triangle of Sadness (5)
6) Aftersun
7) Elvis
Other possibilities: Babylon, Nope, The Menu
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) GDT's Pinocchio
2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
3) Turning Red
4) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5) Wendall and Wild
6) Lightyear
7) Strange World
Other possibilities: Inu-Oh, Minons: The Rise of Gru
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
2) All That Breathes
3) Fire of Love
4) Descendant
5) Navalny
6) The Territory
7) Retrograde
Other possibilities: Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, Bad Axe, Last Flight Home
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) All Quiet on the Western Front
2) Close
3) Decision to Leave
4) Argentina 1985
5 Eo
6) Saint Omer
7) Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Other possibilities: Holy Spider, Return to Seoul, The Quiet Girl
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Top Gun: Maverick
2) Avatar: The Way of Water
3) The Fabelmans
4) Empire of Light
5) All Quiet on the Western Front
6) Babylon
7) TAR
Other possibilities: Elvis, The Batman, Bardo, Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST FILM EDITING
1) Top Gun: Maverick
2) Everything Everywhere All at Once
3) The Fabelmans
4) Elvis
5) Avatar: The Way of Water
6) The Banshees of Inisherin
7) TAR
Other possibilities: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Woman King
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Elvis
2) Avatar: The Way of Water
3) Babylon
4) The Fabelmans
5) All Quiet on the Western Front
6) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
7) Everything Everywhere All at Once
Other possibilities: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, GDT's Pinocchio, The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1) The Fabelmans
2) Babylon
3) Women Talking
4) Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
5) The Banshees of Inisherin
6) The Woman King (6)
7) Avatar: The Way of Water (7)
Other possibilities: All Quiet on the Western Front, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Nope
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1) Naatu Naatu/RRR
2) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick
4) Ciao Papa/Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
5) Applause/Tell It Like a Woman
6) New Body Rhumba/White Noise
7) Carolina/Where the Crawdads Sing
Other possibilities: Good Afternoon/Spirited, Stand Up/Till, Til Your Home/A man Called Otto
BEST SOUND
1) Top Gun: Maverick
2) Avatar: The Way of Water
3) Elvis
4) All Quiet on the Western Front
5) Everything Everywhere All at Once
6) Babylon
7) The Batman
Other possibilities: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, GDT's Pinocchio, Moonage Daydream
MAKEUP/HAIR
1) Elvis
2) The Whale
3) The Batman
4) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5) All Quiet on the Western Front
6) Babylon
7) Blonde
Other possibilities: Amsterdam, Emancipation, Crimes of the Future
COSTUME
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1) Elvis
2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3) Babylon
4) Living
5) The Woman King
6) The Fabelmans
7) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Other possibilities: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Don't Worry Darling, The Banshees of Inisherin
VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Avatar: The Way of Water
2) Top Gun: Maverick
3) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4) The Batman
5) All Quiet on the Western Front
6) Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
7) Nope
Other possibilities: Fantastic Beasts, Jurassic World Dominion, Thirteen Lives
ANIMATED SHORT
1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
2) New Moon
3) An Ostrich told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
4) The Flying Sailor
5) Ice Merchants
6) Save Ralph
7) More Than I Want to Remember
Other possibilities: It's Nice in Here, Steakhouse, The Garbage Man
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) Nuisance Bear
2) The Elephant Whisperers
3) 38 at the Garden
4) How Do You Measure a Year
5) The Flagmakers
6) The Martha Mitchell Effect
7) Haulot
Other possibilities: Anastasia, Angola Do You Hear Us, Stranger at the Gate, As Far as They Can Run
LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) An Irish Goodbye
2) The Red Suitcase
3) Le Pupille
4) Almost Home
5) Warsha
6) Ivalu
7) All in Favor
Other possibilities: Nakam, The Treatment, Sideral, Lone Wolf
All told, I am predicting 16 nominations for nine Telluride films to be announced tomorrow morning:
TAR (4 nominations with 2 more possibilities) Noms: Best Picture, Direction/Field, Actress/Blanchett and Original Screenplay. Possibles: Cinematography and Editing.
Women Talking (3 nominations with 3 more possibilities) Noms: Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Score. Possibles: Direction/Polley, Supporting Actress/Buckley and Supporting Actor/Whishaw.
Living (3 nominations) Best Actor/Nighy, Adpated Screenplay and Costumes.
Aftersun (1 nomination and 2 more possibilities) Nom: Best Actor/Mescal. Possibles: Best Picture and Original Screenplay
Empire of Light (1 nomination and 1 possibility) Nom: Best Cinematography. Possible: Best Actress/Colman
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (1 nomination and 1 possibility) Nom: Best Animated Feature. Possible: Adapted Screenplay
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1 nomination) Best Documentary
Close (1 nomination) Best International Film
Le Pupille (1 nomination) Best Live Action Short
Other "outside shots":
Retrograde, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song and Last Flight Home for Best Documentary
Bardo and Holy Spider for Best International Film. Bardo also has a shot in Cinematography.
Anastasia and Angola Do You Hear Us: Voices from a Plantation Prison in Best Documentary Short
Sideral in Best Live Action Short.
From an overall perspective I am predicting that Everything Everywhere All at Once and All Quiet on the Western Front will co-lead the field with nine nominations apiece.
The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans will each have eight nominations.
Elvis will have seven.
Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick will have six each.
The Whale and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will each have five.
We'll see what happens tomorrow.
PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS
Here I have linked to Oscar predictions from some of the best in the business. See what they have to say.
WHAT SAY YOU?
Who/what do YOU think will be nominated tomorrow morning? Who/what do YOU want to hear when the nominees are read? Drop me a comment, email, or Tweet.
