Oscar Clearinghouse #14...Post Mortem

Slumdog cast and crew winning Best Picture

It says something that the biggest surprise of the night was Best Foreign Film...Japan's Departures. Otherwise, the evening was full of the expected. My perfect night of predictions in the Big 8 categories ended when Sean Penn won his second Best Actor Oscar for "Milk". I had thought that his first win for "Mystic River" was too recent and that the Mickey Rourke comeback story would prove irresistible. That being said, it's hard to quibble with the award going to Penn because he was truly outstanding as Harvey Milk.

As to the rest of the categories: Nailed 'em, but it didn't seem all that difficult...a little suspense in the two actress categories.

But the Slumdog momentum was just too much everywhere else. Including a tiny surprise in Sound Mixing that made the total count for Slumdog go to 8 Oscars.

I have said it before...I think that we discovered after Telluride this year that it was not the best year for film. Compared to last year's fest (Juno, Into the Wild, Diving Bell, There Will Be Blood, Persepolis...) and the year that was 2007...2008 couldn't really compete. I think we also realized as the fall turned into winter that the festival organizers had done a terrific job with what films they had to chose from. Slumdog isn't a great film...it's good, but not great...still, it was the best thing I saw all year (Milk was a close second).

We learned again that the Telluride Festival is, perhaps, the most influential fest in the world...certainly among the top 5...and as I watched the Oscar telecast last night, I was reminded of how incredibly fortunate I have been to have been able to have participated the last three years. And I am thrilled at the prospect that come Labor Day this year, I expect to be back. Thanks Larry and Mitzi!!!

The Telluride Film Blog now goes into hibernation for a while. I'm at my busiest time of the school year for the next 2 months. As we approach summer, I'll resurrect the blog and start the speculation about what the 2009 version of Telluride may hold. Can't wait!

Oscar Clearinghouse #13...And On With The Show

Overture, curtain, lights,

This is it, the night of nights

No more rehearsing and nursing our parts

We know every part by heart

Overture, curtain, light

This is it, we'll hit the heights

And oh what heights we'll hit

On with the show this is it

Tonight what heights we'll hit

On with the show this is it.

2 days left before Oscar!!!

And the expectations addressed last week have not really changed...My picks remain the same

Picture: SLUMDOG (TFF 2008)

Director: DANNY BOYLE/SLUMDOG

Actor: Mickey Rourke/Wrestler (edging out Sean Penn...my TFF buddy from 2007)

Actress: Kate Winslet/Reader

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger/Dark Knight

Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz (TFF 2006)/VC Barcelona

Original Script: Dustin Lance Black/Milk

Adapted Script: SIMON BEAUFOY/SLUMDOG

Additionally look for Slumdog to get Film Editing, Cinematography, Score and Song...and if it's a real sweep...Sound Mixing and Sound Editing...most pundits don't think the last two are going to happen...but maybe...

I'm guessing Button wins 2 or 3 tech awards...

WALTZ WITH BASHIR (TFF 2008) wins for Foreign Film

Check back next week...I'll do an Oscar post mortem for 2008's films in what will probably be the last post until sometime after the State Speech Tournament here in Oklahoma...I have a small part to play in its execution...

Oscar Clearinghouse #12...Tick, Tick, Tick...

Dev Patel and Freida Pinto in Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire"
Is it 2008's Best Film? Oscar is going to say: "YES" on Feb. 22...

Less than two weeks from the Big Show and the Oscar community has settled into relative stupor. The conventional wisdom is that most of the main races are all but over and far be it from me to disagree...The Slumdog Millionaire Express has taken a lot of the suspense out of the weeks leading up to Oscar. That is unlikely to change in the next few days. The BAFTA awards over the weekend (the British version of Oscar) continued to echo what has been happening throughout awards season...Slumdog is the big dog and in all likelihood will be on Oscar night as well. Here's the lowdown by category for the Big Eight awards and a few comments along the way...

Best Picture: There is some buzz of a backlash against Slumdog based on whispers of exploitative work practices with regard to the younger children in the film. I suspect that is entirely hogwash...and that it won't actually diminish the film's chances of winning the Best Picture Oscar...Winner: Slumdog Millionaire...Surprise: Anything Else

Best Director: Danny Boyle has cleaned up this season and will no doubt do so again on Feb. 22. Again, some negative backlash buzz and a supposed mini-boomlet of support for Stephen Daldry, but Boyle is your winner. Winner: Danny Boyle/Slumdog. Surprise: David Fincher/Benjamin Button

Best Actor: The best race of the night it seems...Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke? Both performances have been honored during this awards season...Saw Milk a couple of weeks back and Penn is amazing! But Rourke has the come back story going for him and his work (what I've seen from the film) is also amazing...go with....Winner: Mickey Rourke/The Wrestler. Surprise: Though not really, Penn

Best Actress: A lot of folks think that the move to Kate Winslet in the last month has sealed the deal for her to win her first Oscar. I'm not so sure. She is the best thing about The Reader...which aims and misses as far as I was concerned...but she is very good in it. That said, I still think the Academy might go elsewhere...Streep being the most likely to pick up the trophy. The Anne Hathaway bandwagon, which seemed pretty strong 4-6 weeks ago, has all but disappeared. Winner: Winslet/The Reader. Surprise: Streep/Doubt

Supporting Actor: Ledger. Not a lot more to say. Going to win it...Should win it. Surprise: Impossible to contemplate.

Supporting Actress: I have been very confident about Penelope Cruz for months now. And with Kate Winslet gone to the lead category...she should be in great shape. Winner: Cruz/Barcelona. Surprise: Davis/Doubt

Original Script: Some actual uncertainty here. A battle between Milk and Wall-E...The human wins? Winner: Milk. Surprise: Wall-E

Adapted Script: Slumdog strikes again. Winner: Beaufoy/Slumdog. Surprise: David Hare/The Reader.

Other notes: I think that Slumdog is also likely to win Cinematography, Film Editing, Song, Score, And perhaps the Sound Editing and Mixing as well...meaning as many as 9 trophies...(It can't win 10 as it is double nominated in Best Song)...And maybe it doesn't...but I got a feeling...

It's D. Destiny!

Button...13 noms and no wins? Probably not. It probably wins a technical award here and there to avoid the complete shutout...

Waltz with Bashir will win Foreign Film...

Man On Wire will win Best Doc...beating 2007 TFF entrant from Werner Herzog, Encounters at the End of the World.

Last column before Oscar will go up the Friday before...Peace!

Oscar Clearinghouse #11...No Love for TDK

Pardon the expression, but HOLY CRAP BATMAN! It's a dark day for The Dark Knight!

After what seemed to be a tsunami of buzz that The Dark Knight would break new ground and grab a Best Pic nom...boy did it get SNUBBED this morning or what??? No Best Pic or Director or Screenplay...WOW. And the beneficiary, clearly The Reader...which got all of those plus Kate Winslet in Best Actress not Supporting...

And, as is often the case, I don't seem to be nearly as smart as I think I am... The only categories I got 100% right...Film Editing and Visual Effects....Missed at least one in every other category that I picked (18 categories all together)....Geeeez!

Here's the link to the official nominees page:

http://www.oscars.org/awards/81academyawards/nominees.html

And the notes from this morning by category...

Best Pic: TDK out, The Reader in...actually, if you were paying attention this morning and saw that Winslet was not a nominee for Supporting...that was the first sign that things might get weird...Both the chart and I go for 4 for 5.

Best Director: Again...Nolan/TDK out and Stephen Daldry/Reader in...although the Best Pic and Directors match 5 for 5 and that's fairly rare. Again the chart and I both go 4 for 5.

Best Actor...I was 4 for 5 here missing Pitt as I thought there was enough support for Eastwood to get him a nomination here. The chart was 4 for 5 as well.

Best Actress: I go 4 for 5 here missing the movie that Winslet gets nominated for...otherwise pleased that I picked Melissa Leo to get a nom and she did. The chart gets 3 for 5...and my thought that the Telluride threesome of Hawkins, Thomas and Blanchett wouldn't be in the money proved to be right.

Best Supporting Actor: Both myself and the chart go 4 for 5...but I missed with my pick of Dev Patel (thought the Slumdog momentum would be enough) and the charts had James Franco in Milk...instead...Michael Shannon for Rev Road...who was a front runner earlier in the season gets Rev Road's only major nomination.

Best Supporting Actress: I go 4 for 5. The chart does too. We both miss Winslet sliding up to the lead category...I got Amy Adams...the chart got Taraji P. Henson

Adapted Script: Again no TDK and yes for The Reader...Charts and I go 4 for 5.

Original Script: I go 3 for 5 in what many thought was the toughest category to pick. The chart was also 3 for 5...We both missed Frozen River and In Bruges.

Other stuff...I was surprised Waltz with Bashir was NOT an animated film nominee

Slumdog gets 2 Best Song noms...and there are only 3 songs nominated...really?

Telluride connections go like this as best as I can tell this morning:

13 for Button

10 for Slumdog

4 others: Waltz with Bashir and Revanche (Foreign), Encounters at the End of the World (TFF 2007/Documentary and a shout out to my bus buddy Werner Herzog). New Boy (Live Action Short)... For a total of 27. Now on to Feb 22 and the winners!

Oscar Clearinghouse # 10...Last Call!

Less than 24 hours from nomination announcements and here is the last post prior to that. I have checked the charts one last time and compiled the information from: The Envelope (LA Times), And the Winner Is, Everything Oscar, In Contention, Gurus of Gold (Movie City News), Awards Circuit, Film Experience, Film Misery and The Oscar Guy. Here's what they tell us and my guesses going into tomorrow morning's announcement...

THE BIG EIGHT

Best Picture: Slumdog, Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Dark Knight are the cumulative chart picks...Doubt and Wall-E are your best chances at an upset. My picks mirror the 5 from the charts.

Best Director: Boyle/Slumdog, Fincher/Button, Van Sant/Milk, Howard/Frost/Nixon, Nolan/Dark Knight. The charts now point to Darren Aronofsky/The Wrestler as the ONLY chance at a surprise in this category. My picks are the charted 5. And this would be a relatively rare case of the 5 Best Picture nominees matching the 5 directing nominees.

Best Actor: Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Langella/Frost/Nixon, Eastwood/Gran Torino, Jenkins/The Visitor... I've been pointing at these 5 for a while now. I've thought for quite some time that Brad Pitt was going to miss out and the charts say that now as well. I agree with the charted 5 and in addition to Pitt being a possible "surprise" also add Leonardo DiCaprio...

Beat Actress: The charted 5 get messy after the first 3. Streep/Doubt, Winslet/Rev Road and Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married seem certain. The last two spots chart-wise at this point go to Jolie/Changeling and Hawkins/Happy-Go-Lucky. Melissa Leo and Cate Blanchett would be your "surprises". My picks are Streep, Hathaway, Winslet, Jolie and Leo/Frozen. I've thought for some time that the Telluride trio of Blanchett, Hawkins and Thomas would be shut out and I still think that's likely.

Best Supporting Actor: Ledger/Dark Knight, Brolin/Milk, Hoffman/Doubt, Downey, jr./Tropic Thunder, and Franco/Milk. "surprise" nominees: Michael Shannon and Dev Patel. My guess is that Patel knocks Franco out of the nominations and the rest of the charted four remain your nominees.

Best Supporting Actress: Charts say: Cruz,/VC Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Tomei/Wrestler, Henson/Button and Winslet/Reader..."surprise"...Amy Adams or Rosemarie DeWitt...My guess...Cruz, Davis, Winslet, Tomei and Adams bumping out Henson

Original Script: Charts say: Milk, Rachel Getting Married, VC Barcelona, Wall-E, and Happy-Go-Lucky. Surprises...The Visitor, The Wrestler, Burn After Reading. I think this is the hardest category to call this year. Especially since the WGA announced their nominees in the category. My picks (staying with what I've said before) remain: Milk, VC Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler and Happy-Go-Lucky.

Adapted Script: Charts: Slumdog, Button, Frost/Nixon, Doubt, The Dark Knight. Possible stunners: The Reader, Revolutionary Road. My picks are the chart (as was the pick for the WGA noms).

TECHNICALS:

Art Direction: Charts: Button, Dark Knight, Australia, Changeling, The Reader.

My Picks: Button, Dark Knight, Changeling, Doubt, Milk

Cinematography: Charts: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Rev Road, Australia

My Picks: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Rev Road, The Reader

Costumes: Button, The Duchess, Rev Road, Changeling, Australia

My Picks: Button, Duchess, Rev Road, Changeling, Milk

Film Editing:Charts: Slumdog, Button, Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk

My Picks: Ditto

Score: Charts: Button, Slumdog, Wall-E, Milk, Rev Road

My Picks: Button, Slumdog, Wall-E, Milk, Dark Knight

Song: Wrestler, Wall-E, Slumdog, Bolt, Cadillac Records

My Picks: Wrestler, Wall-E, Slumdog, Bolt, Gran Torino

Sound Editing: Charts: Wall-E, Iron Man, Dark Knight, Button, Quantum of Solace

My Picks: Ditto (but come on Slumdog!)

Sound Mixing: Iron Man, Wall-E, Dark Knight, Button, Slumdog

My Picks: Iron Man, Dark Knight, Quantum of Solace, Wall-E, Slumdog

Make Up: Charts: Button, The Reader, Synecdoche NY

My Picks: Button, The Reader, Dark Knight

Visual Effects: Charts: Button, Iron Man, Dark Knight

My Picks: Ditto

Overall the Charts say:

Button 13 noms, Dark Knight 10, Slumdog 8, Milk 8, Frost/Nixon 5, Doubt 4 and The Wrestler 3

My Predictions: Button 12, Dark Knight 12, Slumdog 9, Milk 9, Doubt 6, Frost/Nixon 5 and The Wrestler 4.

Telluride gets 21 or so from Button and Slumdog and adds another 2 for Waltz with Bashir (Animation and Foreign) plus another Foreign (Everlasting Moments)...for a truly stunning showing at Oscar time...

Can't wait for tomorrow morning...

Oscar Clearinghouse #9 Jan. 16...Tech!

Here are the compilations of charts for the 10 technical categories using data from In Contention, Awards Circuit, Film Experience and The Oscar Guy. Also included are Guild nominations where appropriate...as always Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD:

Art Direction: BUTTON, Dark Knight, Australia, Changeling, The Reader

Lurkers (with a prayer): Revolutionary Road, Indiana Jones 3, Doubt

Guild Notes: Art Director's Guild Noms:

Period Art Direction: Changeling, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Milk

Fantasy Art Direction: The Dark Knight, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Iron Man, The Spiderwick Chronicles, Wall-E.

Comment: Button, Dark Knight and Changeling seem sure bets. Doubt is probable. Give the last spot to Milk.

Winner: Button

Cinematography: SLUMDOG, The Dark Knight, BENJAMIN BUTTON, Revolutionary Road, Australia.

Lurkers: The Reader, Milk, Defiance

Guild Notes: American Society of Cinematographers:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire.

Comment: Follow the Guild and replace Australia with The Reader for your nominations.

Winner: Slumdog

Costumes: BUTTON, The Duchess, Revolutionary Road, Changeling, and Australia.

Lurkers: The Other Boleyn Girl and Brideshead Revisited

Guild Notes: Costume Designers Guild:

Period Costume Design: Changeling, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Duchess, Milk, Revolutionary Road

Fantasy Costume Design: The Dark Knight, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor

Contemporary Costume Design: Iron Man, Mamma Mia!, Sex and the City, Slumdog Millionaire, The Wrestler

Comment: Button, Duchess, Rev Road, and Changeling are pretty good bets...The 5th spot...let's say: Milk

Winner: The Duchess

Film Editing: SLUMDOG, BUTTON, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk

Lurkers: Iron Man, The Reader

Guild Notes: American Cinema Editors Society:

Drama Film Editing: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire

Comedy/Musical Film Editing: In Bruges, Mamma Mia, Tropic Thunder, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E

Comment: The chart should lead you to the five nominees.

Winner: Slumdog

Score: BUTTON, SLUMDOG, Wall-E, Milk, Revolutionary Road.

Lurkers: Defiance, Indiana Jones 3, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, The Dark Knight.

Comment: I think Dark Knight replaces Rev Road for the nominees.

Winner: Button

Song: The Wrestler, Wall-E, SLUMDOG, Bolt, Cadillac Records

Lurking: Gran Torino, Hamlet 2, Quantum of Solace

Comment: I think the compiled charts get the first four right and that the 5th spot is a real tussle between Cadillac and Gran Torino...I lean toward Gran Torino for the fifth nomination.

Winner: The Wrestler/Springsteen

Sound Editing: Wall-E, Iron Man, Dark Knight, BUTTON, Quantum of Solace

Lurking: Indiana Jones 3, Defiance, SLUMDOG, Valkyrie

Comment: I will default to the chart...but this note: If Slumdog is really steaming along, I wouldn't be all that surprised at another nomination in this category.

Winner: Iron Man

Sound Mixing: Iron Man, Wall-E, Dark Knight, BUTTON, SLUMDOG.

Lurking: Quantum of Solace, Defiance

Guild Nominations: Cinema Audio Society:

Sound: The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Quantum of Solace, Slumdog Millionaire, Wall-E

Comment: Go with the Guild here...

Winner: Iron Man

Make-Up: BUTTON, The Reader, Synecdoche, NY

Lurking: Dark Knight, Hellboy II, Tropic Thunder, The Wrestler

Winner: Button

Visual Effects: BUTTON, Iron Man, Dark Knight

Lurking: Hellboy II, Journey to the Center of the Earth, Australia

Winner: Button

The combined charts say the nomination totals are as follows:

Benjamin Button 13

The Dark Knight 10

Slumdog and Milk 8

Frost/Nixon and Wall-E 5

Doubt 4

The Wrestler, Rev Road, The Reader, Changeling, Australia, and Iron Man 3

Total Telluride nominations excluding Doc, Short Doc and Foreign (which could be 3 more): 24

And finally: If you've read the previous posts you know that I'm guessing that Button loses at least one or two of it's charted nominations and Slumdog picks up one or two...so my prediction is 12 for Button and 9 for Slumdog...Also, I expect Waltz with Bashir to be a certain Foreign nominee and likely Everlasting Moments as well. Revanche is probably unlikely.

Oscar Clearinghouse # 8 Post Golden Globes Jan. 15

NOMINATIONS WILL BE ANNOUNCED IN ONE WEEK!!!

The Golden Globes are done and the list of Foreign film finalists have been announced (much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth again this year...one word: Gomorra).

Here is the the list for Foreign Film: (Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD)

Austria, REVANCHE (dir. Gotz Spielmann)
Canada, The Necessities of Life (dir. Benoit Pilon)
France, The Class (dir. Laurent Cantet)
Germany, The Baader Meinhof Complex (dir. Uli Edel)
Israel, WALTZ WITH BASHIR (dir. Ari Folman)
Japan, Departures (dir. Yojiro Takita)
Mexico, Tear This Heart Out, (dir. Roberto Sneider)
Sweden, EVERLASTING MOMENTS (dir. Jan Troell)
Turkey, 3 Monkeys (dir. Nuri Bilge Ceylan)

Golden Globe Winners: (Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD)

Picture, Drama: "SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE".
Picture, Musical or Comedy: "Vicky Cristina Barcelona."
Actor, Drama: Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler."
Actress, Drama: Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road."
Director: DANNY BOYLE,"SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE."
Actor, Musical or Comedy: Colin Farrell, "In Bruges."
Actress, Musical or Comedy: SALLY HAWKINS, "HAPPY-GO-LUCKY."
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight."
Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet, "The Reader."
Foreign Language Film: "WALTZ WITH BASHIR."
Animated Film: "Wall-E."
Screenplay: SIMON BEAUFOY, "SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE."
Original Score: A.R. RAHMAN, "SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE."
Original Song: "The Wrestler" (Bruce Springsteen)



On to the compilation of the Oscar Guessperts. (Includes: The L.A. Times Envelope, And the Winner Is, Everything Oscar, In Contention, Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, Awards Circuit, The Film Experience, Film Misery, and The Oscar Guy):

Best Picture: SLUMDOG MILLIONARIE, BENJAMIN BUTTON, Milk, Frost/Nixon, The Dark Knight.
Lukring: Doubt,Wall-E, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler, The Reader.
Comment: The 10 films in the lead stay the same. The only change is a switch in positons between Milk and Frost/Nixon. These top 5 get the nominations. The spoiler is Wall-E.

Direction: DANNY BOYLE/SLUMDOG, DAVID FINCHER/BUTTON, Gus Van Sant/Milk, Christopher Nolan/Dark Knight, Ron Howard/Frost/Nixon.
Lurking: Darren Aronofsky/Wrestler, Woody Allen/VC Barcelona, Jonathan Demme/Rachel, Sam Mendes/Rev Road, Steven Daldry/Reader.
Comment: Woody Allen makes a substantial move...up 2 spots. Revolutionary Road continues it's slide with Sam Mendes dropping 2 spots. Daldry returns to the list. Again, these top 5 are your nominees. There is always the possibility that the Academy has one of those years where the direction nominees and Best Picture vary by one...and that might open the door for Aronofsky, Allen or Demme.

Actor: Sean Penn/Milk, Frank Langella/Frost/Nixon, Mickey Rourke/The Wrestler, Richard Jenkins/The Visitor, Clint Eastwood/Gran Torino.
Lurking: BRAD PITT/BUTTON, Leonardo DiCaprio/RevRd, Josh Brolin/W, Benicio Del Toro/Che, Dustin Hoffman/Last Chance Harvey.
Comment: Minimal movement in this category. The top 5 are your nominees. I'd be surprised at this point if Pitt were able to sneak back into the mix.

Actress: Meryl Streep/Doubt, Anne Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married, Kate Winslet/Revolutionary Road, Angelina Jolie/Changeling, SALLY HAWKINS/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.
Lurking: Melissa Leo/Frozen River,CATE BLANCHETT/BUTTON, KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS/LOVED YOU SO LONG, Kate Beckinsale/Nothing but the Truth, Michelle Williams/Wendy & Lucy.
Comment: Again, no major movement. I think that Melissa Leo sneaks in and Sally Hawkins misses out.

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger/The Dark Knight, Philip Seymour Hoffman/Doubt, Josh Brolin/Milk, Robert Downey, Jr./Tropic Thunder, and James Franco/Milk.
Lurking: DEV PATEL/SLUMDOG, Michael Shannon/Rev Road, EDDIE MARSAN/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, Ralph Fiennes for both The Duchess and The Reader.
Comment: The only substantial drop is Fiennes for The Reader, down 2 spots. Keep the first four and swap Patel for Franco is my guess on the nominees.

Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz/VC Barcelona, Viola Davis/Doubt, Kate Winslet/The Reader, TARAJI P. HENSON/BENJAMIN BUTTON, and Marisa Tomei/The Wrestler.
Lurking: Amy Adams/Doubt, Rosemarie DeWitt/Rachel, Kathy Bates/Rev Road, Debra Winger/Rachel, TILDA SWINTON/BENJAMIN BUTTON.
Comment: Swinton appears for the first time. My guess is Amy Adams in and Taraji Henson out.

Adated Screenplay: SIMON BEAUFOY/SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, ERIC ROTH/BENJAMIN BUTTON, John Patrick Shanley/Doubt, Peter Morgan/Frost/Nixon, and the Nolan Brothers/The Dark Knight.
Lurking: The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Defiance, Gomorra, and Iron Man????
Comment: Dark Knight jumps up 2 spots (thanks WGA nom), Revolutionary Road down 2 and Iron Man appears on a couple of lists for the first time....really! My nom guesses are the top 5 listed here.

Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black/Milk, Woody Allen/VC Barcelona, Janet Lumet/Rachel Getting Married, Andrew Stanton/Wall-E, MIKE LEIGH/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.
Lurking: The Wrestler, The Visitor, Gran Torino, Burn After Reading, Changeling.
Comment: Again...not a lot of movement. And your guess is as good as anyone's. Taking a shot, I'm going with: Milk, Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler and Happy-Go-Lucky...at least for today...Rachel maybe......The Visitor...maybe.

And ANIMATION:

Noms: Wall-E, Kung Fu Panda, WALTZ WITH BASHIR.
Lurking: Bolt, Horton Hears a Who
Comment: The top 3 are your nominees!

Underview: Milk leads with 6 "Big 8" noms on the charts...
Button, Frost/Nixon, Doubt and Dark Knight each have 4
Slumdog has 3

The combo of noms and lurking shows:
Button and Rev Road with 7 (although Winslet now looks to be the only nom in the Big 8 categories), Milk and Doubt with 6, Wrestler, Rachel and Reader with 5, and Slumdog, Frost/Nixon and Dark Knight with 4.

I will try to post a compilation of Tech awards projections tomorrow and also predict total nominations for the major players. Also, I'll probably try to get one more post in before Oscar nominations are announced on the morning of Jan. 22....

Oscar Clearinghouse #7 Jan. 9, 2009 Post Guilds

Danny Boyle directing Slumdog Millionaire. Jan. 22 will be a big day for him!

The last of the guild noms are in. The DGA announced their five nominees yesterday so with the WGA, PGA and SAG...the picture seems to be clearing.

Slumdog: WGA, DGA,PGA and SAG: Cast and Patel/Supporting.

Button: WGA, DGA, PGA, and SAG: Cast, Pitt/Lead, Henson/Supporting

Frost/Nixon: WGA, DGA, PGA and SAG: Cast, Langella/Lead

Dark Knight: WGA, DGA, PGA and SAG: Ledger/Supporting

Milk: WGA, DGA, PGA and SAG: Cast, Penn/Lead, Brolin/Supporting

Doubt: WGA, SAG: Cast, Streep/Lead, Hoffman/Supporting, Adams/Supporting,Davis/Supporting

It's hard to believe that Doubt may get as many as 4 acting nominations and a screenplay nod and NOT be a Best Pic nominee. But that looks like what will happen...

Here are my picks as of today (they could change):

Picture: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk...Wall-E could surprise, Doubt, Rev Road, Reader all outside looking in...

Director: The DGA five above: Boyle, Nolan, Fincher, Howard, Van Sant...Andrew Stanton is your spoiler for Wall-E...Maybe a Demme for Rachel Getting Married.

Actor: Penn, Rourke, Langella, Jenkins, Eastwood...Pitt's the spoiler.

Actress: Streep, Winslet, Hathaway, Leo, and Jolie...Blanchett and/or Hawkins are the spoilers...KS Thomas outside...meaning the 3 Telluride actresses get shut out.

Supp Actor: Ledger, Hoffman, Brolin, Downey, Patel. The Slumdog train gets Patel a nomination. Spoiler: Franco.

Supp Actress: Cruz, Winslet, Davis, Tomei, Adams...Henson is the spoiler.

Adapted: Slumdog, Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Dark Knight...Rev Road/Reader = spoilers

Original: The biggest crap shoot! Milk, Wall-E, Barcelona, The Wrestler, Happy-Go-Lucky. Spoiler: The Visitor.

Big 8 nom predictions:

Slumdog: 4

Button: 3

Milk: 5

Doubt: 5

Dark Knight: 4

Frost/Nixon: 4

The Wrestler: 3

Other tidbits:

Slumdog had a big night at the Critic's Choice last night..still think it gets 9 noms overall AND Button may actually NOT get to double digit noms. For the first time, I think it may be possible that Slumdog and Button end up tied at 9 nominations each!

Oscar Clearinghouse #6...Jan. 6th Edition

Holidays have come and gone. Guild nominations are coming out. And the announcement of Oscar nominees is just a couple of weeks away. Doubt has gotten some big help of late as has Dark Knight. Revolutionary Road seems to be fading into the distance and Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button and Milk continue to hum along. Here's the latest breakdown of the combination of 8 Oscar prediction websites (The Envelope, And the Winner Is, Everything Oscar, In Contention, Gurus of Gold, Awards Circuit, Film Experience and The Oscar Guy) with TELLURIDE CONNECTIONS IN CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: SLUMDOG, BUTTON, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Dark Knight

Lurkers: Doubt, Wall-E, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler, The Reader

Comment: The top 5 remain the same from 2 weeks ago. The biggest movers are Wall-E jumping onto the list at #7 and Rev Road dropping 2 spots. I think the the top 3 are locks and then you have a fight for the last 2 spots between 4 pictures. I am a little surprised that Doubt's success at Golden Globe and SAG noms hasn't generated more heat over the past 2 weeks. Also, the PGA noms help Dark Knight and Frost/Nixon. Wall-E is making a late charge, but a lot of buzz seems to think that the charge is too late. Both Rev Road and The Reader seem to be out of the running at this point.

Director: BOYLE/SLUMDOG, FINCHER/BUTTON, Van Sant/Milk, Howard/Frost, and Nolan/Dark

Lurkers: Aronofsky/Wrestler, Mendes/Rev Road, Demme/Rachel Getting Married, Allen/Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Shanley/Doubt

Comment: As you might expect, the 5 at the top are the directors of the 5 best pix leaders. The only serious movement is Woody Allen jumping onto the list at #9. The rest has been very stable the past 2 weeks. The DGA nominations come out Thursday...will that provide any surprises?

Actor: Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Langella/Frost, Eastwood/Gran Torino, Jenkins/The Visitor

Lurkers: PITT/BUTTON, DiCaprio/Rev Road, Brolin/W, D. Hoffman/Last Chance Harvey, Del Toro/Che

Comment: Some significant movement in this category...Eastwood and Jenkins are both up 2 spots and DiCaprio drops 3...The top 3 spots remain the same...I am not surprised by Jenkins movement..The SAG nom shows his strength and it is a wonderful, understated performance. Eastwood's strength does surprise me...Gran Torino has dropped off the radar in every other category except screenplay...Seems to me that 4 spots are solid...Penn, Rourke, Langella, and Jenkins and that the 5th spot is a pick-em...Saw Button over the holidays and I gotta say, I'm firmly in the "eh" camp. Pitt's performance...ok, Blanchett...ok (and I'm a Blanchett fan)...Henson's performance...overdone. It's pretty, but doesn't move you. Or at least, me.

Actress: Streep/Doubt, Winslet/Rev Road, Hathaway/Rachel, Jolie/Changeling, HAWKINS/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.

Lurkers: Leo/Frozen River, THOMAS/LOVED YOU SO LONG, BLANCHETT/BUTTON, Beckinsale/Nothing But the Truth, Williams/Wendy and Lucy.

Comment: Melissa Leo is a big mover, up 2 spots (again, thanks to SAG) and Kristin Scott Thomas is a big mover, down 2 spots... Will the Rev Road swoon hurt Winslet who has consistently been dueling with Streep for the top spot in this category? I've said for months now that this could be the most Telluride intensive category...or a total wash...I think it's most likely to be a total wash at this point...i think it's a pretty good bet that Melissa Leo sneaks into the 5th spot displacing Sally Hawkins and that the 3 Telluride women end up with no noms at all.

Supporting Actor: Ledger/Dark Knight, PS Hoffman/Doubt, Brolin/Milk, Downey/Tropic Thunder, Franco/Milk.

Lurkers: Shannon/Rev Road, PATEL/SLUMDOG, Fiennes/Reader, MARSAN/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, Fiennes/The Duchess.

Comment: The only big mover here is Eddie Marsan in Happy-Go-Lucky, jumping onto the list at #9. Really? You know, it was entertaining little bubble of a film. And Sally Hawkins performance is good, but really? My guess at this point is that the top 4 get nommed and that Dev Patel rides the Slumdog wave and his SAG nom to the 5th spot, displacing James Franco.

Supporting Actress: Cruz/Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Winslet/Reader, Henson/Button, Tomei/Wrestler.

Lurkers: Adams/Doubt, DeWitt/Rachel, Bates/Rev Road, Winger/Rachel, ZYLBERSTEIN/LOVED YOU.

Comment: No major movement in this category. Probably 6 women fighting for the 5 spots..Adams helped by the SAG nom.

Adapted Screenplay: SLUMDOG, BUTTON, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, and Revolutionary Road.

Lurkers: Reader, Dark Knight, Defiance, GOMORRAH, and no #10.

Comment: Again, no big moves here. WGA noms are just around the corner. Does Rev Road survive to get a nom here?

Original Screenplay: Milk, Rachel, Barcelona, Wall-E, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.

Lurkers: Wrestler, Visitor, Gran Torino, Burn After Reading, The Changeling.

Comment: Gran Torino makes a jump onto the list at #8.

Underview: Milk looks solid for 6 noms (maybe 7) in the Big 8 categories. Revolutionary Road, which was an early frontrunner has dived to only 2 "noms" and I think those might be shaky. My guess right now is that Button leads all nominees with double digits. That Slumdog gets 9 noms (see the last post) and that Milk and Slumdog duke it out for Best Pic...Button wins some of the tech stuff...but no major award. Frost/Nixon will get nominated for several and not win a single award.

Winner Picks (at this point):

Orig Script: Milk

Adapted Script: Slumdog

Supp. Actress: Cruz

Supp. Actor:Ledger

Actress: Streep

Actor: Penn

Director: Boyle

Picture: Slumdog

Oscar Clearinghouse #5 Post SAG/Globes

Sean Penn (A 2007 Telluride attendee) as Harvey Milk in "Milk" may be on his way to another Oscar!

The Golden Globes noms are out and this morning the nominations from SAG were announced...and a slew of Critics choices and Top Tens are out so the last two weeks have seen some movement, so here is our pre-holiday update...Ultimately, it now seems that the 5 nominations for Best Picture come down to 7 films and two of them will left outside looking in.(Telluride connections in CAPS & BOLD)

Best Picture: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, BENJAMIN BUTTON, Milk, Frost/Nixon, and Dark Knight
Lurking: Revolutionary Road, Doubt, Australia, The Reader, The Wrestler
Comment: Generally the retreat by Australia continues and now Revolutionary Road is struggling...The Globes should have provided Rev Road with a shot in the arm, but this morning's SAG awards hurt it some (since DiCaprio missed on Best Actor and it didn't get an ensemble nod). Doubt is the film that got a lift this morning. As to this evaluation...the two biggest movers in this category were SLUMDOG up 2 spots and Milk down 2...although I think both of these also got boosts this morning...Milk, however took a hit from the Globes...yet despite that, I think it's a very likely Best Pic nom.


Director: BOYLE/SLUMDOG, FINCHER/BUTTON, Van Sant/Milk, Howard/Frost, Nolan/Dark Knight
Lurking: Mendes/Rev Road, Aronofsky/Wrestler, Daldry/The Reader, Demme/Rachel Getting Married, Eastwood/Gran Torino
Comments: Mendes actually jumped up a couple of spots as does Daldry. Eastwood is back on the list despite the fact that Gran Torino also seems to be losing some steam.

Actor: Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Langella/Frost, DiCaprio/Rev Road, PITT/BUTTON
Lurking: Eastwood/Gran, Jenkins/Visitor, Brolin/W, Del Toro/Che, and Hoffman/Harvey
Comment: The only big mover here is Eastwood who drops a couple of spots out of the nominees. Pitt returns and his SAG and Globe noms probably help him quite a bit. I still think Richard Jenkins will sneak a nom and his SAG nom helps.

Actress: Winslet/Rev Road, Streep/Doubt, Hathaway/Rachel, Jolie/Changeling, THOMAS/LOVED YOU SO LONG
Lurkers: HAWKINS/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, BLANCHETT/BUTTON, Leo/Frozen River, Beckinsale/Nothing Bot the Truth, Kidman/Australia
Comment: Movers...Jolie back up 2 spots, Blanchett takes a big dive of 3 spots. Her exclusion from both Globes and SAG may doom her shot. Melissa Leo got a lift this morning with her SAG nom. Ultimately, the 3 Telluride connected actresses may all end up being shut out...or fight for the fifth spot or they could all end up with nominations.

Supp. Actor: Ledger/Dark Knight, Hoffman/Doubt, Downey/Tropic Thunder, Brolin/Milk, Shannon/Rev Road
Lurkers: Franco/Milk, PATEL/SLUMDOG, Fiennes/Reader, Schreiber/Defiance, Fiennes/Duchess
Comment: Michael Shannon, whom I have thought was a lock, is a substantial dropper (2 spots). The other note is Ralph Fiennes lurking in 2 different movies now. Heath Ledger still seems to be the prohibitive favorite and that is unlikely to change. Patel gets a lift from his SAG nom and the general upward trajectory of Slumdog in almost all of its categories.

Supp. Actress: Cruz/Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Winslet/Reader, Tomei/Wrestler, HENSON/BUTTON
Lurking: DeWitt/Rachel, Adams/Doubt, Winger/Rachel, Bates/Rev Road, Farmiga/Nothing
Comment: Movers are Winslet up 2, Henson down 2, Bates down 2 and Farmiga retuning to the list. Amy Adams was helped a ton by the SAG nom and her Globe nom last week.

Adapted Screenplay: BUTTON, SLUMDOG, Frost/Nixon, Doubt, and Rev Road

Lurkers: The Reader, Dark Knight, Gomorrah

Comment: No changes from last post.

Original Screenplay: Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Christina Barcelona, Wall E, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY

Lurks: The Visitor, The Wrestler, Australia, Burn After Reading and The Changeling

Comment: Burn and Changeling new to the list...No other big movement.

BIG 8 NOMS:

BUTTON and Milk 5

Doubt, Frost, Rev Road 4

SLUMDOG 3

Rachel/Wrestler 2

Totals with "lurkers" included:

Revolutionary Road 7

BUTTON, Milk, Doubt 6

Rachel 5

Frost/SLUMDOG 4

Telluride still looks like 10 noms and 4 lurkers in the Big 8 categories with tech, foreign and animation noms still to be included. Those may actually boost the number of Oscar nominations for Festival linked films past last year's total. I am thinking the BUTTON will lead all pictures with double digit nominations and that SLUMDOG may have as many as 9...Pic, Director, Supp Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Song, Sound Editing, Film Editing and Cinematography...

Oscar Clearinghouse #4

3 Months away from Telluride and a couple of months til Oscar night...

Telluride connects in CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: Milk, BENJAMIN BUTTON, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, Dark Knight, and Frost/Nixon...Lurkers: Revolutionary Road, Australia, Doubt, The Wrestler, and The Reader.

Comment: The "Slumdog" momentum out of Telluride has continued and Danny Boyle's tale has thundered from a blip to a full-fledged solid contender...and many guessperts now have it at the top of their lists. Including this morning's announcement that it was The National Board of Review's Best Picture of the year. Here's the list of their choices and top ten:

Best Film: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Best Director: DAVID FINCHER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Actor: CLINT EASTWOOD, Gran Torino

Best Actress: ANNE HATHAWAY, Rachel Getting Married

Best Supporting Actor: JOSH BROLIN, Milk

Best Supporting Actress: PENELOPE CRUZ, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Foreign Language Film: MONGOL

Best Documentary: MAN ON WIRE

Best Animated Feature: WALL-E

Best Ensemble Cast: DOUBT

Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: DEV PATEL, Slumdog Millionaire

Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: VIOLA DAVIS, Doubt

Best Directorial Debut: COURTNEY HUNT, Frozen River

Best Original Screenplay: NICK SCHENK, Gran Torino

Best Adapted Screenplay: SIMON BEAUFOY, Slumdog Millionaire and ERIC ROTH, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Spotlight Award: MELISSA LEO, Frozen River and RICHARD JENKINS, The Visitor

The BVLGARI Award for NBR Freedom of Expression: TRUMBO.

In addition NBR's Top Ten list is: BURN AFTER READING, CHANGELING, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, THE DARK KNIGHT, DEFIANCE, FROST/NIXON, GRAN TORINO, MILK, WALL•E and THE WRESTLER.

Finally, I think SLUMDOG will get some tech noms as well (Cinematography, editing, sound editing and end up with 7 nominations) Big Movers: "Dark Knight" charged up the list 3 spots, "Australia" is taking a huge hickey this post as it drops 4 spots...people actually seeing it is my guess as to the cause. I saw it last week and uh...NO.

Director: DANNY BOYLE, Gus Van Sant, DAVID FINCHER, Ron Howard, and Christopher Nolan...Lurkers: Darren Aronofsky, Baz Luhrmann, Sam Mendes, Jonathan Demme, and Stephen Daldry.

Comment: Boyle moves into the #1 spot for Slumdog...very exciting for those of us that got to see the film in Telluride. Big Movers: Boyle and Ron Howard are both up a couple of spots...The Frost/Nixon trailer looks amazing. Baz Luhrmann drops 5 spots as "Australia" goes south in every category in which it was competitive last month. (as a mater of fact, it was in play for 3 noms among the Big 8 last month and is gone from all 3 categories now).

Actor: Sean Penn/Milk, Mickey Rourke/Wrestler, Frank Langella/Frost, Clint Eastwood/Gran Torino, and Leonardo DiCaprio/Revolutionary...Lurkers: PITT/BUTTON, Jenkins/Visitor, Del Toro/Che, Brolin/W, And D. Hoffman/Harvey.

Comment: I've seen the trailers now for both Milk and Frost/Nixon and both Penn and Langella look amazing! I've also seen the Gran Torino trailer...uhh, Clint looks OK, but not in their league...of course, they're trailers, soooo...And I saw Richard Jenkins in "The Visitor" last week. A really nice performance. I'm guessing he ends up with a nomination after it's all said and done.

And another quick observation...it looks increasingly like Best Actor will come from a non-Telluride film for the first time in quite a few years. Big Movers: Eastwood moves up 2 spots and Hoffman appears on the list for the first time...that's Dustin not Philip Seymour...

Actress: Meryl Streep/Doubt, Kate Winslet/Revolutionary, Anne Hathaway/Rachel, CATE BLANCHETT/BUTTON, and KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS/LOVED YOU. Lurkers: Jolie/Changeling, HAWKINS/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, Leo/Frozen River, Kidman/Australia, and Beckinsale/Nothing.

Comment: Potentially the category upon which there may be the most Telluride emphasis (although I expect that actually will be Foreign Film...in which all 5 may have been at Telluride). Big Mover: Blanchett soars 5 spots. Kidman drops 2 spots.

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger/Dark Knight, P.S. Hoffman/Doubt, Michael Shannon/Revolutionary, Robert Downey, Jr./Thunder, and James Brolin/Milk...Honorary inclusion for James Franco for Milk as he trailed Brolin by one point...Lurkers: DEV PATEL/SLUMDOG, Schreiber/Defiance, Fiennes/Reader, and Irwin/Rachel.

Comment: Mr. Patel makes a substantial move, up 3 spots and I expect the trend to continue as the heat for Slumdog just seems to be getting hotter. Downey and Fiennes are big movers up as well.

Supporting Actress: Viola Davis/Doubt, Penelope Cruz/Barcelona, TARAJI P. HENSON/BUTTON, Marisa Tomei/Wrestler, and Kate Winslet/The Reader. Lurkers: DeWitt/Rachel, Bates/Revolutionary, Adams/Doubt, Winger/Rachel, and Abbas/Visitor.

Comment: Winslet is flirting with a double nom. Big Movers: Winslet is up 3 spots and Abbas appears for the first time.

Adapted Screenplay: BUTTON, SLUMDOG, Frost/Nixon, Doubt, Revolutionary Road. Lurkers: Reader, Dark Knight, Defiance, GOMORRAH.

Comment: Can't even really get to 10 possibles. Gomorrah appears for the first time. Big Movers: Slumdog up 2 spots to tie with Button for #1 and Revolutionary drops 3 spots.

Original Screenplay: Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Christina Barcelona, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, and Wall-E. Lurkers: Wrestler, Visitor, Australia, Gran Torino, and Seven Pounds.

Comment: The fall of Australia continues in this category as well as it dropped 5 spots. Other Big Movers: Wrestler up 3 and Seven Pounds making its first appearance. And it looks impressive in trailers as well. Stronger,to me at least, than Pursuit of Happiness...which has the same pedigree in terms of actor/author/director.

Nom leaders (in the Big 8 categories): Milk and BUTTON with 5, Revolutionary Road, Doubt and Frost/Nixon have 4 and 3 for SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE and Dark Knight.

Totals of noms and lurks:

1) Revolutionary Road (7)

2) Milk/BUTTON/Doubt (6)

5) SLUMDOG/Dark Knight and Frost/Nixon (4)

Oscar Clearinghouse #3

(above: Dev Patel and Anil Kapoor in Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire")

Hello sports fans!

A lot of movement in the last three weeks. Added to the the news that both "The Soloist" and "The Road" are off the release schedule and the dynamic of the Oscar race has changed a good deal since my last post...

Here's the latest compilation of Oscar prognostications from the 8 or so websites that I peruse to put this together..with commentary, of course! And Telluride connections are in CAPS and BOLD...

Best Pic...The top 5 at this stage are BENJAMIN BUTTON, Milk, Australia, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, and Revolutionary Road. Those just under the surface are: Frost/Nixon, Dark Knight, Doubt, The Wrestler and Rachel at the Wedding.

Comment: Slumdog...which was the hottest thing out of Telluride, continues to jump up. It has moved from being barely on the outer edge of Oscar awareness to one of the 5 that would be nominated, if the predictors are to be believed...and I think they are. As this race continues to develop, it's beginning to look more and more like Luddy and Meyer and crew had it right and the lack of American film at the fest this year seems increasingly justified. (This latest update of The Clearinghouse also seems to underline Telluride's influence on the race...in my last post only 4 "nominations" had Telluride links...that number jumped to 10 for this post...WOW!) Other notes...Australia seems to be losing some steam as is Frost/Nixon.

Best Direction: FINCHER/BUTTON, Luhrmann/Australia, Van Sant/Milk, BOYLE/SLUMDOG, and Nolan/Dark Knight. Lurking: Howard/Frost, Mendes/Revolutionary, Demme/Rachel, Eastwood/Gran Torino, Daldry/The Reader.

Comment: Along with its rise for Best Picture, Danny Boyle has moved way up this list to be one of the five "expected" to get nominated. 6 weeks ago, he wasn't on the top ten list...Buzz, buzz, buzz! Additionally, all of Clint Eastwood's support has devolved away from Changeling and onto Gran Torino...across the board, except for still pretty solid support for Angelina Jolie in the Best Actress category. Eastwood (whose daughter we met in Telluride last year) also has a boomlet in the Best Actor category for Gran Torino.

Best Actor: Mickey Rourke/The Wrestler, Sean Penn/Milk, Frank Langella/Frost/Nixon, Leonardo DiCaprio/Revolutionary Road, and BRAD PITT/BENJAMIN BUTTON.

Bubbling under the surface: Clint Eastwood/Gran Troino, Richard Jenkins/The Visitor, Benicio Del Toro/Che, Hugh Jackman/Australia, and Josh Brolin/W.

Comment: Pitt actually rises into the top 5 again, Langella took a real hit the last 3 weeks going from a substantial front runner status to the 3rd spot. Rourke has become the favorite at this point. Again...Eastwood has rocketed from nowhere in the last three weeks to sit at #6 and flirting with jumping up into the list of expected nominees..

Best Actress: Kate Winslet/Revolutionary Road, Meryl Streep/Doubt, Anne Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married, Angelina Jolie/Changeling, KRISTEN SCOTT THOMAS/I'VE LOVED YOU SO LONG. Knocking on the door: SALLY HAWKINS/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, Nicole Kidman/Australia, Melissa Leo/Frozen River, CATE BLANCHETT/BENJAMIN BUTTON, and Kate Beckinsale/Nothing But the Truth.

Comment: Scott Thomas has slowly been edging up the list and this posting sees her on the list of five "nominees" for the first time. Sally Hawkins continues to be in play. Meryl Streep's mention for Doubt is the first for it in the Big Four Categories in this posting as it seems to be losing luster as well. Kate Winslet enjoyed a big jump to the top spot since my last post.

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger/Dark Knight, Philip Seymour Hoffman/Doubt, Michael Shannon/Revolutionary Road, James Franco/Milk, Josh Brolin/Milk.

The next five: Robert Downey Jr./Tropic Thunder, Liev Schreiber/Defiance, John Malkovich/Changeling, Bill Irwin/Rachel Getting married, and DEV PATEL/SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE.

Comment: Massive changes because of the moves of The Road and The Soloist to 2009. Ledger remains the prohibitive fave. It looks like the word is the Hoffman will be in this category and not Lead. Downey's support has coalesced around his Tropic Thunder performance since The Soloist has gone away. Slumdog's Dev Patel is now getting a little love and HOORAY FOR BILL IRWIN. The women in the Rachel cast have been getting so much attention, it's great to see Irwin start to get a little light on his performance. Personally, I think Irwin is one of the most under-utilized talented actors in the business.

Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz/Vicky Christina Barcelona, Viola Davis/Doubt, TARAJI P. HENSON/BENJAMIN BUTTON, Marisa Tomei/The Wrestler, and Rosemarie DeWitt/Rachel Getting Married.

Lurking: Amy Adams/Doubt, Debra Winger/Rachel Getting Married, Vera Farmiga/Nothing But the Truth, Kate Winslet/The Reader, and Kathy Bates/Revolutionary Road.

Comment: Not a lot of movement at the top here. the top 4 stayed the same and in the same order. Dewitt makes a big leap up the chart.

Best Adapted Screenplay: BENJAMIN BUTTON, Revolutionary Road, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, Frost/Nixon, The Reader.

Also: Doubt, Defiance, The Dark Knight, and Che.

comment: Not even 10 scripts make the list here. Frost/Nixon is a big drop and Button and Slumdog make big jumps.

Best Original Screenplay: Rachel Getting Married, Milk, Australia, Vicky Christina Barcelona, and HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.

Also: Wall-E, Gran Torino, The Visitor, The Wrestler, and Synecdoche NY.

Comment: Rachel takes a massive leap up the chart. Happy-Go-Lucky makes a big move too.

COUNTS:

TELLURIDE CONNECTS: 10 "NOMINATIONS" AND 3 "lurking". A large jump from our last posting.

Noms/Lurks Combined:

1) Revolutionary Road (7)

2) Rachel Getting Married (7)

3) Milk(6)

4) BENJAMIN BUTTON(6)

5) Australia/Doubt (5)

Nominations Alone:

!) Milk (6)

2) BENJAMIN BUTTON/Revolutionary R0ad (5)

3) Australia/SLUMDOG/Rachel/Doubt (3)

Comments: Of course there are other Telluride connections that are not included. I expect that there will be a very solid connection in the Foreign film category again this year as has been true for the past several years. I expect "Waltz with Bashir" to pop up in that category and perhaps in the animation category as well. all in all, Telluirde's influence might even be larger this year because of the very reasons that made it a different festival from the last two years.

Until next time...

Oscar Clearinghouse #2

Three weeks since my first post and interest is beginning to increase. I have the latest compilation of Oscar picks from a number of the better known Oscar websites. Here's the new run-down (with Telluride films in bold):

Best Pic: Australia, Benjamin Button, Milk, Revolutionary Road and Frost/Nixon

Also: Slumdog Millionaire, The Changeling, The Dark Knight, Doubt, and The Reader.

Comment: Milk and Button swap places, Slumdog has moved up significantly. Doubt, Defiance and The Soloist have fallen back...The Soloist & Defiance have fallen completely off the top ten list.

Best Direction: Fincher/Button, Luhrmann/Australia, Van Sant/Milk, Eastwood/Changeling, and Nolan/Knight

Also: Howard/Frost, Mendes/Revolutionary, Boyle/Slumdog, Shanley/Doubt and Daldry/Reader

Comment: A lot of Eastwood support despite seemingly weak feelings about the film for Best Pic. Christopher Nolan's stock has risen for Dark Knight quite a lot the last 3 weeks. And Danny Boyle has a big boost as well due to the great reactions at Telluride and Toronto.

Actor: Langella/Frost, Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Hoffman/Doubt, DeCaprio/Revolutionary.

Also: Pitt/Button, Jenkins/Visitor, Mortenson/Road, Del Toro/Che, Brolin/W

Comment: Langella seems like a total lock even this far out. Rourke has risen a lot since Toronto, Pitt falls back some...And we don't know what category Hoffman will end up in... which makes this difficult...others also in the same boat include Michael Sheen, Jamie Foxx, and Robert Downey, Jr.

Actress: Streep/Doubt, Jolie/Changeling, Winslet/Revolutionary, Hathaway/Rachel, Kidman/Australia

Also: Thomas/Loved You, Hawkins/Happy, Leo/Frozen, Blanchett/Button, Winslet/Reader

Comment: Blanchett is in the same situation as Hoffman et. al....Maybe Lead, maybe Supporting. This race seems very fluid at this point and unlike Langella in the male lead category, no one seems to have a nomination locked down at this point.

Supporting Actor: Ledger/Knight, Smit-McPhee/Road, Downey/Soloist, Shannon/Revolutionary, Foxx-Soloist

Also: Franco/Milk, Sheen/Frost, Brolin/Milk, Schreiber/Definace, Malkovich/Changeling

Comment: Ledger continues to dominate. Everyone else is fighting a close battle and this category is likely to be affected by decisions about where to position Hoffman, Sheen, Downey, Foxx...

Supporting Actress: Cruz/Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Henson/Button, Tomei/Wrestler, Farmiga/Truth.

Also: Adams/Doubt, Bates/Revolutionary, DeWitt/Rachel, Winger/Rachel, Zylberstein/Loved You.

Comment: Tomei has come on like gang busters. Zylberstein is new to the list.

Adapted Screenplay: Frost/Nixon, Button, The Road, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire.

Also: Doubt, Dark Knight, Defiance, The Reader, and Body of Lies.

Comment: Slumdog jumps into the actual nominee list.

Original Screenplay: Milk, Australia, Wall-E, Barcelona, The Changeling.

Also: Visitor, Synecdoche NY, Happy-Go-Lucky, Rachel, Soloist

Comment: Wall-E is the big mover here and I kind of wonder why it wasn't getting more love in this category a month ago...it's going to be on a ton of top ten list at the end of the year.

Telluride mentions on this posting in all categories: 4 nominations and 7 hovering just below.

Oscar Clearinghouse #1

Well...Telluride and Toronto are over and it's time to start thinking about awards season. I've done the first analysis of the guessperts and as the season moves along, I'll add more prognosticators into the matrix. I'll update every 2-3 weeks or so, until we get closer and then update weekly.





The Telluride link to Oscar has been fairly prevalent the past 5 years, but this year that's expected to be less likely because of the smaller number of American films at Telluride. However, after the first run though, it seems that Telluride may still be pretty impactful. Last year Telluride films received 23 Oscar noms...the year before I think it was 17. Looking at this year's first combination chart shows 6 solid noms in the Big 8 categories with Telluride ties and another 4 possibles lurking...and that doesn't include the foreign film Oscar possibles and even an animation nom possibilty.





Of course, this will all mutate before the announcement of the nominees and probably drastically.





Here's what the first wave of predictions are pointing toward with Telluride connections in bold:





Best Pic...Australia, Milk, Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road and Frost/Nixon


Other possibles: Doubt, Defiance, The Changeling, The Soloist, The Dark Knight and Slumdog Millionaire (riding a wave of popular and critical success out of Telluride and into Toronto)





Best Director: Gus Van Sant, Baz Luhrmann, David Fincher, Clint Eastwood and Ron Howard.


Other directors in play: Christopher Nolan, Sam Mendes, Jonathan Hillcoat, John Patrick Shanley, Joe Wright, and Ed Zwick





Best Actor: Frank Langella, Sean Penn, Leonardo DeCaprio, Brad Pitt, Mickey Rourke.


Others: Viggo Mortenson, Richard Jenkins, Benicio Del Toro, Robert Downey, Jr., and Hugh Jackman





Best Actress: Kate Winslet, Angelina Jolie, Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and Sally Hawkins.


Others: Nicole Kidman, Melissa Leo, Kristin Scott Thomas, and Drew Barrymore.





Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Josh Brolin, Michael Shannon, Russell Crowe.


Others: James Franco, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, John Malkovich, Jamie Foxx, Michael Sheen, and Robert Downey, Jr. (for the same roll in "The Soloist"...apparently the guessperts don't really know which category he should be in)





Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Tajari Henson, Viola Davis, Kathy Bates, and Vera Farmiga.


Others: Marisa Tomei, Amy Adams, Kim Basinger, Debra Winger, Rosemaire DeWitt, and Charlize Theron.





Adapted Screenplay: Frost/Nixon, The Road, Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, and Doubt.


Others: The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, Defiance, Body of Lies, The Reader.





Original Screenplay: Milk, Australia, Vicky Christina Barcelona, The Cahngeling, Rachel Getting Married.


Others: The Visitor, Wall-E, Happy-Go-Lucky, The Soloist and Gran Torino.

Telluride Stories

Variety has posted a slew of interviews with a number of the participants from this year's festival. You can find them at this link:

http://www.variety.com/index.asp?layout=festivals&jump=video

Included are Greg Kinnear, Lauren Graham, Jeff Goldblum, Danny Boyle, Ari Folman and many others. Check it out.

And Home

We've been home for a couple of days and I am trying to catch up after the whirlwind that was Telluride this year. The last day we got in "The Good, The Bad and The Weird" a Korean homage/send-up of the Eastwood spaghetti western. Very LOUD and very entertaining.

Followed that up with what appears to be the hit of the Festival. Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire". We really enjoyed it. And the response from the rest of the Telluride attendees seems to be very good (if you read the reviews and blogging that has come out of last weekend. It was gratifying to see/hear Boyle introduce the film and thank the audiences in Telluride for giving it a boost as it heads to Toronto's festival... I suspect that part of the response is due to "Slumdog" having a brighter tone and conclusion than most everything else at the fest this year. Sometimes you just need some relief.

We concluded the fest with "American Violet" a true story of racially biased mass arrest in Texas...a lot like the Tulia, Texas case of a few years ago that those of us in the Amarillo media market are familiar with. A good performance from Nicole Behaire (Kris talked to her briefly on Sunday) is the highlight of this film...which you want to like, but dramatically falls short.

All in all, this year's fest didn't reach the heights of last year's in terms of film quality nor in our chance encounters and interaction with the famous and near famous. That being said, the opportunity to meet and talk with Salman Rushdie pretty much made the weekend. I mean, how often does something like that happen?

Movie round up (what I/we saw)

Asphalt Tango (Romanian and one of the 3 best things I saw)... 3 stars

Tribute to David Fincher (20 min. of "Button"...looks great also derivative)

Hunger (Bobby Sands hunger strike/brutal)...2 and 1/2 stars

Happy-Go-Lucky ( Sally Hawkins is good in a fair movie) 2 and 1/2 stars

Waltz with Bashir (animated and a likely Oscar nominee) 3 stars

Flash of Genius ( not so much, Greg Kinnear) 2 stars

Firaaq (Rushdie introduced Indian "Crash") 2 and 1/2 stars

Tribute to Jean Simmons (who didn't she work with?)

Good, Bad Weird (fun!) 3 stars

Slumdog Millionarie ( best movie of the weekend) 3 stars

American Violet (seemed to lack dramatically) 2 and 1/2 stars

Other buzz we didn't get to see:

I've Loved You So Long

Flame and Citron

Gomaorrah

Will probably morph this blog into an Oscar watch/clearinghouse with emphasis on what was at Telluride and the chances those films have for winning Oscar glory in February...

A Gondola Ride with Salman

Few films today...it's our personal day. We'll spend some time with our hosts this afternoon and this evening. Caught "Firaaq" and the Jean Simmons tribute this morning into this afternoon. We'll do a bunch of films tomorrow and....

Rode the gondola down from the Mountain Village with Salman Rushdie...the Salman Rushdie....talked with him about the film he introduced here this morning (the aforementioned Firaaq)...made my head spin...we were returning from the Jean Simmons tribute...which ended with Leonard Maltin talking to her about her career and movies including stories about Laurence Olivier, Marlon Brando (another person that I somehow met years ago), Spencer Tracy, and Cary Grant among others...Kris talked to Maltin just before she went into the theater...CRAZY!

Day Two

Short tonight...will do a real entry later. Still waiting for a great movie. Saw "Hunger", "Happy-Go-Lucky", "Waltz with Bashir" and "Flash of Genius" today. Bashir is closest to being a really great movie...but it still falls short.

Celebs today...Ken Burns (who I keep running into), Laura Linney, Greg Kinnear, Lauren Graham, and the directors for all 4 films I saw today: Steve McQueen, Mike Leigh, Ari Folman, and Mark Abraham.

Hoping to get to see "American Violet" before the fest is over and talk to Oklahoman Tim Blake Nelson who is here and in that cast. Tomorrow will include "Firaaq" introduced by Salman Rushdie (which blows my mind) and the Jean Simmons tribute (she worked with Olivier and Brando!)...after that, who knows???

And Day One Is Done

Just finished the David Fincher tribute...

Impressions...Fincher is a dynamic director...the tribute included a 40 minute reel of his work...still impressive. Se7en, The Game and Fight Club are all very good. Zodiac was good...It will be interesting to see how Fincher continues in his career.

We were also treated to about 20 minutes of "Benjamin Button" which looks and sounds very Forrest Gumpy...I mean really Forrest Gumpy....which may be OK...maybe

It's a period piece, it's southern, it attempts the same kind of acceptance of a kind of magical realism that Gump asked you to buy into. And it's effects intensive too...just like Gump...

I think it's a very tricky tight rope that Button is going to try to walk...but I'm afraid that most people are going to feel that the steps were blazed by Gump and that Button is mostly a re-run.

Was going to attend "I've Loved You So Long" but am out of gas. Will start tomorrow morning with the Cannes entry, Steve McQueen's "Hunger". Then go from there. Waiting to see what the Fest organizers add as TBA's for tomorrow before planning the whole day. Looking forward to "Flash of Genius" which is NOT on the bill of fare...but the presence of Greg Kinnear means it will be sneaked at some point this weekend.

Celeb sightings tonight included Jeff Goldblum who is here with "Adam Resurrected" and singer-songwriter Tracy Chapman

Catching My Breath

We're in the lull between the Patron Brunch and the Patron Preview. The Brunch was marvelous...highlight...corn pancakes with chipoltle butter and shrimp salsa...tasty!

Star gazing at the Brunch (IE who I saw there)...Laura Linney, Salman Rushdie, Greg Kinnear, film critics Leonard Maltin and Richard Schickel (another tributee here this year), Lauren Graham (of Gilmore Girls fame) and documentarian Ken Burns.

Going to see "Asphalt Tango" at 2:30..our other choice was Mike Leigh's "Happy-Go-Lucky" but we're going to go see that tomorrow afternoon with our kids and see Mike Leigh (the director) do the Q & A afterwards.

I haven't assaulted any stars or directors...yet...