Happy New Year to those in the Central Time Zone!

News from the OC-Goodbye 2010

ThePlaylist ThePlaylist
In Theaters: 'Blue Valentine,' 'Another Year,' 'Biutiful,' 'The Way Back' http://dlvr.it/CQzg3

All but "Blue Valentine" palyed as a part of TFF #37.

Also, we're in Telluride for New Year's. Looking forward to the celebration tonight at the New Sheridan and on Colorado Ave. in front of the courthouse. But it is going to be very, very COLD. 5 to 10 below zero!!!

Reportedly celebs in town include Justin Timberlake, Mark Wahlberg and Jerry Seinfeld.

Happy New Year everyone!

The Oscar Clearinghouse #5 Pre-Holiday Edition

How many nominations for "The King's Speech" on January 25th?

Here's one more Clearinghouse in a big way before the end of 2011. TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.

The Clearinghouse is using data gathered from Scott Feinberg, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, Film Misery, InContention.com, Gurus of Gold from the LA Times, Awards Circuit and Film Experience for this latest chart.

BEST PICTURE: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Inception, 4) The Fighter, 5) Toy Story 3, 6) BLACK SWAN, 7) The Kids Are All Right, 8) True Grit, 9) 127 HOURS, 10) Winter's Bone.

Next Five: The Town, ANOTHER YEAR, THE WAY BACK, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine.

Hot: The Fighter and Black Swan

Not: 127 Hours

Thought: The bunching at the top between "Social Network" and "King's Speech" could not be tighter. My current theory is that "Social" has peaked too soon and with so much unanimity (so many critic's accolades...) that "King's" will still win Best Picture. A lot of conventional wisdom says lately that "127 Hours" will slide off the list of 10 nominees and be replaced by "The Town." That would also mean that Danny Boyle would slip off the Best Director list of 5 nominees. "Black Swan" and "The Fighter" are both getting some good boost in the last month. It would also appear that the only other film hovering under the current ten likely nominees that has any realistic chance of stealing a Best Picture nomination is "Another Year." I'd be completely OK with that. As I have said in this space it was one of my favorites at Telluride this year. Certainly a better film than "The Kids Are All Right' "Toy Story 3" and, dare I say it "The Social Network."

BEST DIRECTOR 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 5) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS

Next Five: David O. Russell/The Fighter, Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.

Hot: Aronofsky and Granik

Not: PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK (who fell off the top ten) and Leigh.

Thought: Again, Boyle may be out next time and Russell and The Coens are the likely candidates to get the fifth nomination. For my money it should be the Coens (but I haven't seen "Winter's Bone" yet, it's sitting on my DVD player as I write). In a perfect world there would be 6 nominees and Boyle could stay on the list.

BEST ACTRESS: 1) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 2) Annete Bening/Kids Are All Right, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR

Next Five (well three): Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Julianne Moore/Kids Are All Right, Hilary Swank/Conviction and 4 others tied at the number 9 spot.

Hot: Swank...who rejoins the list after her Golden Globe nomination

Not: Nobody really nuked since the last Clearinghouse

Thought: It's a two horse race Portman and Bening neck and neck (they keep trading the top spot on the Clearinghouse and are current separated by 2 points) and likely to be that way right up to the opening of the envelope. Personally, I'd vote for Portman. I'd also like to see Manville hang on for the 5th spot, but I have a suspicion that that's not going to happen. Nobody is seeing the film and (as I've said repeatedly) it's ACTUALLY A SUPPORTING ROLE! Realistically and probably the fifth spot ends up in Michelle Williams hands.

BEST ACTOR: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network, 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Jeff Bridges/True Grit.

Next Five: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island, Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version.

Hot: Eisenberg

Not: Bridges

Thought: Increasingly becoming Firth's to lose (he has perfect score on The Clearinghouse). I think Franco's a lock and after that you have 5 guys shooting for the remaining 3 spots...and Bardem isn't in that group.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 3) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom.

Next Five: MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole, Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN.

Hot: Leo, Adams, Steinfeld and Kunis

Not: Weist

Thought: The most fun category of the Big 8. It's fluid, and tightly packed. And full up with terrific performances. It's going to be tough to leave some of these women off the carpet on Oscar night. Leo and Adams are riding a "Fighter" wave. Kunis is riding a "Swan" wave. Steinfeld's "Grit" is finally in theaters and it's stunning and Bonham Carter just keeps hanging in. I suspect that they'll ultimately be the five nominees and that Weaver and Weist will be on the outside looking in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/Social Network, 5) Jeremy Renner/The Town

Next Five: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK, Bill Murray/Get Low, Michael Douglas/Wall Street, Money Never...

Hot: Hawkes

Not: Harris

Thought: Bale's to lose. He's one point off a perfect score. I love Rush's performance in "King's Speech" but Bale is fantastic as Wahlberg's wastrel brother in "The Fighter." You really can't take your eyes off his performance. For my money you can have Ruffalo and Garfield..they're OK...but not in the same league as Bale and Rush's performances. The top four are likely nominees with Renner, Hawkes and Rockwell realistically slugging it out for the last spot. I think Harris's chances are gone because "The Way Back's" profile is so small as to be virtually invisible.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Winter's Bone, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) True Grit

Next Five: The Town, Rabbit Hole, How to Train Your Dragon, THE WAY BACK, The Ghost Writer.

Hot: Zip

Not:Also zip.

Thought: So little movement here from the last Clearinghouse. The top five are pretty solid with "Rabbit Hole" and "The Town" the only realistic spoilers.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 1) (TIE) THE KING'S SPEECH and The Kids Are All Right, 3) ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Inception, 5) The Fighter

Next Five: BLACK SWAN, Blue Valentine, Get Low, Somewhere, Made in Dagenham.

Hot: Zip

Not: Blue Valentine

Thought: Kings and Kids are locks. After that it gets dicey in this category with the next 5 listed films all real possibilities to get one of the three remaining nominations.

UNDERVIEWS:

Telluride #37 films have 15 of the 45 nominations in the Big 8 categories if The Clearinghouse is to be believed at this moment and another 9 possibles. There will be further nominations in the technical categories (one source thinks that "The King's Speech" could get up to 12 nominations by itself) as well as the Foreign Film category (Biutiful) and Documentary/Shorts categories... I still think TFF #37 could end up with 30 plus nominations.

And to repeat..."Social Network," Kids Are All Right" and "Toy Story 3"...over rated!

"True Grit, " "The King's Speech" and "Another Year"...see them now!

After the New Year (which we plan to spend back in Telluride...woo hoo!), The Clearinghouse will begin to include prognostications on the technical and other categories as well.

Have a great Holiday, everyone!

Follow on Twitter @Gort2 and Facebook.

True Grit...Coens hit a home run. Bridges and Steinfeld are fantastic. Beautifully shot by Roger Deakins. See it now!

SAG Nominations and the OC

"The King's Speech" and "Black Swan" continue their awards assault with this morning's announcement from the Screen Actor's Guild. Here is the complete list from USA Today:

Film Ensemble:
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Lead actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Lead actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hilary Swank, Conviction

Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Comment: "Ensemble" is what approximates Best Picture for the SAG Awards, so this almost certainly closes the deal for "Black Swan," "The Fighter," and "The Kids Are All Right" to be on the Oscar list of 10 nominees. "King's Speech" and "Social Network" have been considered locks...but these other three haven't been nearly the consensus picks that Kings and Social have been.

Actor: Nice boost for Duvall and for Bridges...after the Globe snub from earlier this week. Still likely Firth's to lose.

Actress: Hilary Swank...really? OK...Still likely a two horse race between Bening and Portman.

Supporting Actor: Hawkes and Renner are creeping into the conversation in a serious way for Oscar nominations...But it's between Bale and Rush for the win.

Supporting Actress: What an interesting category...Adams and Leo in "The Fighter" coming on like gangbusters. Steinfeld and Kunis are gathering some serious steam as well...and Bonham Carter maybe the lone lock in the category at this point...not to win, but to get a nomination. Anyone who says they think they know who's going to win this Oscar...don't believe them.

5 Categories/25 total nominees...8 for TFF #37 films.

King's Speech-4

Black Swan-3

127 Hours-1

Other non-Telluride films with multiple noms:

Social Network-2, Winter's Bone-2, The Fighter-4, Kids-3, True Grit-2

More Guilds still to come...Producers, Directors and Writers among others. we'll try to have a new comprehensive look at the Oscar race on The Clearinghouse within the next few days.

SAG Nominations

Screen Actor's Guild nominations will be out this morning. What will they tell us? The actor's branch is the largest branch in the Academy...so, perhaps some insight this morning for the 4 acting races as well as Best Picture.

TFF #37 and the Golden Globes

Here from Incontention.com is this morning's nominee list from the Golden Globes.

Best Picture – Drama “Black Swan” “The Fighter” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “The Social Network”

Best Picture – Musical/Comedy “Alice in Wonderland” “Burlesque” “The Kids Are All Right” “Red” “The Tourist”

Best Director-Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan” David O. Russell, “The Fighter” Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech” David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor – Drama Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”James Franco, “127 Hours”Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”Mark Wahlberg, “The Fighter”

Best Actress – Drama Halle Berry, “Frankie and Alice” Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone” Natalie Portman, “Black Swan” Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”

Best Actor – Musical/Comedy Johnny Depp, “Alice in Wonderland”Johnny Depp, “The Tourist” Paul Giamatti, “Barney’s Version”Jake Gyllenhaal, “Love and Other Drugs” Kevin Spacey, “Casino Jack”

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”Anne Hathaway, “Love and Other Drugs”Angelina Jolie, “The Tourist”Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right” Emma Stone, “Easy A”

Best Supporting Actor-Christian Bale, “The Fighter” Michael Douglas, “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”Jeremy Renner, “The Town” Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”

Best Supporting Actress-Amy Adams, “The Fighter” Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech” Mila Kunis, “Black Swan” Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”

Best Screenplay-Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, “The Kids Are All Right” David Seidler, “The King’s Speech” Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, “127 Hours” Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”

Best Foreign Language Film-“Biutiful” “The Concert”“The Edge”“I Am Love”“In a Better World”

Best Animated Feature-“Despicable Me”“How to Train Your Dragon” “The Illusionist” “Tangled” “Toy Story 3”

Best Original Score-Danny Elfman, “Alice in Wonderland” Hans Zimmer, “Inception” Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech”A.R. Rahman, “127 Hours” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, “The Social Network”

Best Original Song-“Bound to You” from “Burlesque” “You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from “Burlesque” “There’s a Place for Us” from “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader” “Coming Home” from “Country Strong” “I See the Light” from “Tangled”

And a few notes...

16 nominations from among this year's Telluride films...

The King's Speech-7 (the most of any film)

Black Swan-4

127 Hours-3

The Illusionist-1

Biutiful-1

Best Pic Drama-Boost for "The Fighter" Ding for "True Grit" (no Grit anywhere, and the HFPA usually loves the Coens) and "127 Hours" (but maybe not too much...it gets nominations for Actor and Screenplay, so...)

Best Pic Music/Comedy- This category is even worse than normal...(and I'm one of the 8 people on the planet that actually liked "Alice"). Further, if "Kids Are All Right" is a comedy, I'll eat my hat!

Best Director-Again...boost for Russell and "The Fighter". No nom for Danny Boyle, though.

Best Actor-Drama-The boost for "The Fighter" lifts Marky Mark Wahlberg into the Best Actor race. Up to this point the supporting players were getting all the press.

Best Actress-Drama-Halle Berry from almost out of nowhere...

Best Actor-Music/Comedy-Not a soul here who will play for an Oscar nom

Best Actress-Music/Comedy-Boost for Jullianne Moore who has been getting the lesser speculation as compared to her co-star Annette Bening. Maybe a bit of a boost for Hathaway.

Supporting Actor-A little surprise for Michael Douglas

Supporting Actress-Mila Kunis...how about that.

Screenplay-Nice notice for "127 Hours"

Glad to see "The Illusionist" in the mix. It's Oscar chances, though are probably still slim.

News from the OC-Globes

Golden Globe (the Oscar wanna-be) nominations are announced this morning...more later

Just gonna say it, Social Network, Toy Story 3 and Kids Are All Right all incredbly over-rated.

News from the OC- NY Film Critics Circle

NYFCC has announced. According to E! Online, here are their results:

• Best Film: The Social Network
• Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
• Best Screenplay: Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
• Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
• Best Actress: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
• Best Supporting Actor: Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
• Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
• Best Cinematography: Matthew Libatique, The Black Swan
• Best Animated Film: The Illusionist
• Best Non-Fiction Film: Inside Job
• Best Foreign Language Film: Carlos
• Best First Feature: Animal Kingdom

Read more: http://www.eonline.com/uberblog/b215953_social_network_tops_ny_critics_circle.html#ixzz181kHVJji

As you can see, Telluride #37 films were named in 5 categories.

News from the OC...BFCA's

Something like 35 Telluride-centric nominations from the Broadcast Film Critic Association. Black Swan with 12, King's Speech with 11 and 127 Hours with 8. Here's a link to the story from Kris Tapley at Incontention:

http://incontention.com/2010/12/13/black-swan-leads-bfca-field-with-a-record-12-nominations/

News from the OC

"The Social Network" cleans up today. Best Pic from LA Film Critics, NY Film Critics Online, Boston Society of Film Critics...and AFI Top Ten. I've said it before...ehhh?

Here's the AFI Top Ten and a couple of extras. Telluride Film Festival 37 does all right.

BLACK SWAN

THE FIGHTER

INCEPTION

THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

127 HOURS

THE SOCIAL NETWORK

THE TOWN

TOY STORY 3

TRUE GRIT

WINTER'S BONE

and...

AFI SPECIAL AWARDS
THE KING'S SPEECH

WAITING FOR SUPERMAN

New York's Online Critics awarded Natalie Portman of Black Swan Best Actress. Swan also was cited for Cinematography and Score. James Franco of 127 Hours was honored for Best Actor.

LA's Film Critics awarded Colin Firth of The King's Speech Best Actor and Niels Arestrup of the French prison drama A Prophet (TFF #36) Best Supporting Actor. Best Direction was shared by Olivier Assayas for Carlos. Carlos was also named Runner-Up for Best Film and Best Foreign Film. Edgar Ramirez , who played the title role, was runner-up to Firth. The King's Speech also scored as the runner-up in a number of categories including Geoffrey Rush as Supporting Actor as well as in Production Design and for David Seidler's Screenplay. The Illusionist was runner-up as Best Animated Film.

Boston's Society of Film Critics only cited Portman as Best Actress and the Film Editing of Black Swan from Telluride 37 films in their year end awards.

New York's Film Critics Circle announces tomorrow.

News from the OC

ebertchicago
"Black Swan" opens wider today. Natalie Portman may be Oscar-bound. My review: http://j.mp/f3Wcrn

News from the OC

THR_Movies
'The King's Speech' Poster and Queen Bonham Carter's Oscar Problem http://bit.ly/dH39Ht

The OC Looks at the NBR

Lesley Manville wins NBR Best Actress for Mike Leigh's "Another Year." Does it boost her Oscar chances???

Here is the press release from the National Board of Review's announcement today TFGF#37 films are Big and Bold):

New York, NY – December 2, 2010 – The National Board of Review named The Social Network the 2010 Best Film of the Year. Directed by David Fincher, this timeless drama explores the moment at which Facebook, the most revolutionary social phenomenon of the new century, was invented and the resulting lawsuits. The film was released on October 1st by Columbia Pictures.
Below is a full list of the awards given by the National Board of Review:

Best Film: The Social Network
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Best Actress: Lesley Manville, Another Year
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Best Foreign Language Film: Of Gods and Men
Best Documentary: Waiting for "Superman"
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Ensemble Cast: The Town
Breakthrough Performance: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Best Directorial Debut: Sebastian Junger and Tim Hetherington, Restrepo
Spotlight Award: Sylvain Chomet and Jacques Tati, The Illusionist
Best Original Screenplay: Chris Sparling, Buried
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Special Filmmaking Achievement Award: Sofia Coppola for writing, directing, and producing Somewhere
William K. Everson Film History Award: Leonard Maltin (not a film, but a Telluride fixture)
NBR Freedom of Expression: Fair Game, Conviction, Howl
Production Design Award: Dante Ferretti, Shutter Island

Ten Best Films
(in alphabetical order)
Another Year

The Fighter

Hereafter

Inception

The King’s Speech

Shutter Island

The Town

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter’s Bone

Five Best Foreign-Language Films
(in alphabetical order)

I Am Love

Incendies

Life, Above All

Soul Kitchen

White Material

Five Best Documentaries
(in alphabetical order)
A Film Unfinished

Inside Job

Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work

Restrepo

The Tillman Story

Top Ten Independent Films
(in alphabetical order)
Animal Kingdom

Buried

Fish Tank (TFF #36)

The Ghost Writer

Greenberg

Let Me In

Monsters

Please Give

Somewhere

Youth in Revolt

Boy, the NBR has swallowed "The Social Network" Kool-Aid.

Glad to see the accolades for "The King's Speech" and very glad for "Another Year" on the list of 10 and very pleased there is some recognition for "The Illusionist." I'm also happy for Mr. Leonard Maltin with whom I had a great conversation about 3D in film while in Telluride. Congratulations Mr. M!

...but no mention of "Black Swan," "The Way Back," or "127 Hours" seems criminal. Personally, I think that "TS3", and "Social Network" are pretty over-rated anyway (as is the NBR snubbed "Kids Are All Right").

Most Oscarologists don't think the NBR really is much of a harbinger or has much effect...I can only hope that's true.

News from the OC

ThePlaylist
Watch: New Trailer For Peter Weir's 'The Way Back' With Colin Farrell, Ed Harris & Jim Sturgess http://dlvr.it/82S0b

MovieCityNews
A Conversation with Tamara Drewe Director Stephen Frears: We shot it late in the year--in September, not in mid-su... http://bit.ly/cOuzO6

Variety_Film
Bonham Carter feels fit for a queen: Film News: 'Speech' gets actress talking up royal role -- Royal leads Colin F... http://bit.ly/cm6jBT

News from the OC

firstshowing Black Swan is a masterpiece. Absolutely love that movie holy crap love it so much. Just as amazing a second time!

kristapley Black Swan even better the second time. A true opus. Someone outside just said, "I don't even know what emotion to feel."

akstanwyck Black swan: it is portman vs. Bening now.

hitfix Contender Countdown: Who will mount a challenge to 'King's Speech' and 'Social Network'? http://bit.ly/coQRP8

ebertchicago "127 Hours." He cuts off his arm because what else was he gonna do? My 4-star review, just posted: http://j.mp/deT3JX

ThePlaylist Watch: New Trailer For Sylvain Chomet's 'The Illusionist' http://dlvr.it/82Tg7

News from the OC

Variety_Film

Boyle aims for the visceral in '127 Hours': Film News: Helmer takes many directions to achieve impact -- Danny B... http://bit.ly/eA3FQX
Variety_Film

For Aronofsky, 'Swan' is personal: Film News: Despite horror overtones, pic is about 'girl becoming a woman' --... http://bit.ly/g4jZMG


Variety_Film
Leigh's brand of improvised cinema: Film News: 'Year' director brings vision to drama -- A Mike Leigh film is cr... http://bit.ly/hAn0mr

The Oscar Clearinghouse #4

"The Fighter" has come out swinging...

It helps when people have actually seen your film. David O. Russell's "The Fighter" featuring Mark Wahlburg, Christian Bale, Melissa Leo and Amy Adams has stormed into contention after press screenings were generally positive. Also warming up some over the last 4 weeks..."The Town," "Winter's Bone" (which is likely to get more boosts from its success at the Gotham Awards and Independent Spirit Nominations) and "Get Low." Losing some steam..."True Grit" (although I really expect that to change in the next week or so as screenings have occurred and the press embargo for that is supposed to end tomorrow...) and "Another Year" (which is too bad, because I really liked "Another Year" a lot).

Here's the breakdown on the last day of November using the source material from: Movie City News Gurus of Gold, Awards Daily, Film Misery, InContention.com, Scott Feinberg, Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

TELLURIDE #37 FILMS IN CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Toy Story 3, 5) Inception, 6) The Kids Are All Right, 7) True Grit, 8) The Fighter, 9) BLACK SWAN, 10) Winter's Bone

Close: The Town, THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine

Out: Fair Game, Hereafter

Hot: 127 HOURS, The Fighter, The Town

Not: True Grit, ANOTHER YEAR

Thought: Social Network and King's Speech continue to jockey for the top spot despite what I think is still an almost subliminal decline foe Social Network. I continue to think that this category is a four horse race with those two plus True Grit and Inception battling for the prize. Also, finally saw The Kids Are All Right...and it's all right...over-rated, over-hyped, but all right.

Best Director: 1) David Fincher/Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 4) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 5) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN

Close: The Coen Brothers/True Grit, David O. Russell/The Fighter, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK

Out: Debra Granik/Winter's Bone

Hot: Russell

Not: Weir

Thought: What an ugly category. 7 players for the 5 spots. I still think the Coens get in and Aronofsky will be on the outside looking in.

Best Actress: 1) Anette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR

Close: Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Julianne Moore/Kids Are All Right, Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs, Tilda Swinton/I Am Love, Naomi Watts/Fair Game

Out: Diane Lane, Sally Hawkins

Hot: Swinton

Not: Manville...look out. The droop of Another Year's fortunes seems to be dragging her out of the race.

Thought:See above

Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 3) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine

Close: Jesse Eisenberg/Social Network, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island, Pau Giamatti/Barney's Version

Out: Sean Penn

Hot: Bridges and DiCaprio

Not: Giamatti

Thought: Bridges continued assault may be a better indicator that True Grit is a serious player as opposed to the movement in the Best Picture category.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2)Diane Weist/Rabbit Hole, 3) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 4) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom

Close: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, Hailey Steinfeld/True Grit, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Marion Cotillard/Inception

Out: Kristin Scott Thomas

Hot: Adams and Kunis

Not: Steinfeld

Thought: Nothing shows the jump that The Fighter has made more clearly than the leap the Amy Adams has enjoyed in the last couple of weeks.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network, 5) ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK

Close: Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Justin Timberlake/Social Network, Matt Damon/True Grit, Jeremy Renner/The Town, Bill Murray/Get Low

Out: Josh Brolin

Hot: Garfield, Damon

Not: Rockwell

Thought: Bale and Rush continue to duke it out...

Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Winter's Bone, 5) True Grit

Close: Rabbit Hole, The Town, THE WAY BACK, How to Train Your Dragon, The Ghost Writer

Out: Love and Other Drugs

Original Screenplay: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Inception, 5) Blue Valentine

Close: The Fighter, BLACK SWAN, Get Low, Made in Dagenham, Somewhere

Out: How Do You Know

Hot: Get Low

Thought: Maybe Another Year's only nomination.

Telluride films are losing some ground as they sit at this counting with 16 predicted nominations in the Big Eight categories and 8 other possible nominations...

NOMS:

THE KING'S SPEECH-6,

The Fighter, Kids Are All Right, The Social Network, 127 HOURS-4,

Inception, True Grit, BLACK SWAN, Winter's Bone-3

Toy Story3, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine-2

NOMS + POSSIBLES

The Fighter-7

THE KING'S SPEECH, The Social Network, The Kids Are All Right, True Grit-6

BLACK SWAN-5

127 HOURS, Inception, THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine, Get Low-4

And later this week...The National Board of Review releases its list of the Best Films of 2010...

Oscar goes in a new direction with hosts Franco and Hathaway. Some thoughts on the bold choice. http://bit.ly/fnGh2N

News from the OC

Colin Firth Will Get Oscar Nod, Says Tim Burton Arts Entertainment Epoch Times http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/content/view/46581

Daniel Day-Lewis is Spielberg's 'Lincoln' http://tinyurl.com/3a87cc9

RT @WeinsteinFilms: Have a read/listen of Tom Hooper's interview about #thekingsspeech http://n.pr/9XvAlG

Weinsteins to fight 'Blue Valentine,' 'King's Speech' MPAA rating: Film News: Fields, Friedman to lead appeals -... http://bit.ly/csL6By

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu Says The Bleak 'Biutiful' Is Actually About "Life" http://dlvr.it/8mCD4

An Oscar for Ed Harris, Already? http://bit.ly/9krYmv

Natalie Portman, Colin Firth collect first (of many) trophies ? Awards Season Roundup http://bit.ly/9XJrbz Hollywood News

WrapVideo: "Inside Job" Director Charles Ferguson http://tinyurl.com/262oahx

Alexander Payne's 'The Descendants' Starring George Clooney Bound For Cannes? http://dlvr.it/8dSht

Firth, Portman to receive kudos at Palm Springs fest: Film News: Other announced honorees include Javier Bardem,... http://bit.ly/crXKZF

It's Good to Be 'King': First-Round Oscar Picks http://bit.ly/cuWMjf

News from Pawhuska: Tulsa World posted two photos today of Terrence Malick, Javier Bardem and Ben Affleck -- col... http://bit.ly/aPd1OJ

"127 Hours" is a helluva movie. My review: http://j.mp/deT3JX

Black Swan has landed in LA

kristapley ...Black Swan even better the second time. A true opus. Someone outside just said, "I don't even know what emotion to feel." firstshowing ...

First Showing...Black Swan is a masterpiece. Absolutely love that movie holy crap love it so much. Just as amazing a second time!

akstanwyck (Anne Thompson) ... Black swan: it is portman vs. Bening now.

Oscar Watch: Inarritu, Del Toro Talk Biutiful, Dying Art Films: 'Tis the season for Q & As, show-and-tells, and ... http://bit.ly/db9Zl6

News from the OC

hitfix
Contender Countdown: Who will mount a challenge to 'King's Speech' and 'Social Network'? http://bit.ly/coQRP8

'Biutiful' Day at AMPAS Launches Oscar Campaign http://tinyurl.com/2cemd2c

Are the 127 Hours? faintings a publicity stunt? http://bit.ly/c26eg0

News from the Clearinghouse

ThePlaylist
Watch: New Trailer For Sylvain Chomet's 'The Illusionist' http://dlvr.it/82Tg7

ThePlaylist
Watch: New Trailer For Peter Weir's 'The Way Back' With Colin Farrell, Ed Harris & Jim Sturgess http://dlvr.it/82S0b

Review: '127 Hours' Is A Thrilling, Life-Affirming Survival Tale & One Of The Best Films Of The Year http://dlvr.it/81XbD

News from The Clearinghouse

AwardsDaily
The King’S Speech Gets a Poster http://bit.ly/cKpwew

The OC #3

Danny Boyle, Aron Ralston and James Franco of 127 HOURS

The Third Edition of The Oscar Clearinghouse...featuring some backlash and a charge or two.

Sources: Awards Daily, Film Misery, In Contention, David Poland/Gurus of Gold/Movie City News, Scott Feinberg, Awards Circuit, and Film Experience.

TELLURIDE FILMS IN CAPS AND BOLD

Best Picture: 1) [TIE] THE KING'S SPEECH and The Social Network, 3) True Grit, 4) Toy Story 3, 5) [TIE] 127 HOURS and Inception, 7) The Kids Are All Right, 8) ANOTHER YEAR, 9) BLACK SWAN, 10) The Fighter

Next Five: Winter's Bone, THE WAY BACK, Fair Game, Hereafter, Rabbit Hole.

Dropping Out: Secretariat

Hot: True Grit, Winter's Bone, THE WAY BACK

Not: Hereafter

Comment: True Grit continues its assault on the top ten list...despite having been seen by no one. I mentioned in the last post that this is showing us the power of a really good trailer...and I think that continues to be true. And despite its continued place atop the Best Picture list, The Social Network may be suffering from some backlash. That's showing itself more in the other races...But even in the Best Pix race, it's been caught by THE KING'S SPEECH in the last 2 weeks after enjoying a fairly substantial lead in the category. Big boosts to Winter's Bone and THE WAY BACK the last 2 weeks. And Hereafter is dropping like a stone.

Director: 1) David Fincher/Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 5) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN.

The Next Five: Coen Brothers/True Grit, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right

Dropping Out: Doug Liman and David O. Russell

Hot: ARONOFSKY, WEIR and Granik

Not: LEIGH, Cholodenko

Comment: The Fighter's fortunes maybe on the wane as well as Russell's status would indicate. The Winter's Bone boom also shows up in this category with Granik on the list for the first time. And Mike Leigh takes a hit...which I think portends some bad future news for ANOTHER YEAR which is too bad because it's one of my favorite films of the year.

Actress: 1) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 5) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole

The Next Five: Julianne Moore/Kids Are All Right, Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Anne Hathawy/Love and Other Drugs, Diane Lane/Secretariat, Sally Hawkins/Made in Dagenham

Dropping Out: Naomi Watts

Hot: Diane Lane

Not: Watts

Comment: I saw some critical advocacy last week for the notion that I've held since I saw ANOTHER YEAR in Telluride... that Lesley Manville should be in the Supporting Category...so we'll see.

Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 4) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 5) Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine

The Next Five: JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Jesse Eisenberg/Social Nework, Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version, Mark Wahlberg/Fighter, Sean Penn/Fair Game

No one dropped out

Hot: No one

Not: Bridges and Eisenberg

Comment: The first inkiling we have that the bloom may be coming off The Social Network rose. Eisenberg drops from # 5 to #7...and, listen, I've seen The Social Network since the last OC...and I'm a moderate fan of Fincher's and a BIG FAN of Sorkin. But...it's NOT a great film and Eisenberg's performance is the same thing he always does. Seriously, I see no definable character difference between his Zuckerberg and the kid he plays in Zombieland! I know I'm speaking heresy here...but it's just an OK film with OK performances...

Supporting Actress: 1) Diane Weist/Rabbit Hole, 2) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 4) Hailee Stienfeld/True Grit, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom

The Next Five: Miranda Richardson/Dagenham, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, Kristin Scott Thomas/Nowhere Man, Amy Adams/The Fighter, Marion Cotillard/Inception

Dropping Out: Fanning, Hershey, Hall

Hot: Weaver, Spacek, Thomas, and Cotillard

Not: Richardson

Comment: An incredibly fluid category. At this point Weist and Carter seem likely locks (although I even wonder about Weist). It's a category up for grabs.

Supporting Actor: 1) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Sam Rockwell/Conviction, 5) ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK

The Next Five: Andrew Garfield/Social Network, Justin Timberlake/Social Network, Josh Brolin/True Grit, Bill Murray/Get Low, Jeremy Renner/The Town

Dropping out: Damon, Cassel

Hot: Rockwell, Murray and Renner

Not: Garfield

Comment: Another category that seems to indicate that there's a backlash against Social Network. A month ago when we published the first OC for this year both Garfield and Timberlake were among the likely nominees. Now they're both in the "lurking" category...and Garfield, who has always been the more likely of the two to actually get a nomination slid a good piece in the last 2 weeks. BTW, I still think Colin Farrell deserves a nod for THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Winter's Bone, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) True Grit

The Next Five: Rabbit Hole, How to Train a Dragon, The Town, THE WAY BACK, Love and Other Drugs

Dropping Out: Miral

Hot: 127 HOURS, How to Train Your Dragon and The Town

Not: THE WAY BACK, Love and Other Drugs

Comment: A big charge from 127 HOURS the last two weeks. This category is one that DOESN'T show any real loss of ground for Social Network.

Original Screenplay: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Inception, 5) Blue Valentine

The Next Five: How Do You Know, The Fighter, BLACK SWAN, Made in Dagenham, Somewhere

Hot: KING'S SPEECH, How Do You Know, and Blue Valentine

Not: BLACK SWAN, Somewhere

Comment: James Brook's new film (How Do You Know) makes its first appearance on the OC...it's a real joker in the deck...will we see it elsewhere in the next update? Rudd, Witherspoon, Nicholson???

And the numbers...if the above was correct...

Nominations in the Big 8 categories:

THE KING'S SPEECH-6

127 HOURS, True Grit, The Kids Are All Right-4

The Social Network, Inception, ANOTHER YEAR, BLACK SWAN, The Fighter-3

Toy Story 3, Winter's Bone, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine-2

Combined "nominations" and "near nominations":

THE KING'S SPEECH, The Social Network, True Grit, The Fighter and The Kids Are All Right-6

127 HOURS, Inception, ANOTHER YEAR, BLACK SWAN, Winter's Bone, THE WAY BACK, Rabbit Hole-4

Get Low, Blue Valentine, Made in Dagenham-3

Fair Game, Love and Other Drugs, The Town, Toy Story 3-2

Telluride "nominations"- 17... "near nominations"- 6...

And, of course, the ritual reminder...there will be other nominations for Telluride films in technical categories, documentary categories and perhaps even animation...

Back around Thanksgiving!

'King's Speech' leads BIFAs race: Film News: 'Monsters,' 'Never Let Me Go,' 'Arbor' nab six noms each -- Tom Hoope... http://bit.ly/9AWGdD

Info on the filming of Terrence Malick's "Untitled," with Ben Affleck, Barry Pepper and Rachel McAdams (via @raypride): http://j.mp/ce5HfM

Poster and 37 Images from Peter Weir's 'The Way Back': http://is.gd/gtyxL

DOC NY: 'Tabloid' Finds Errol Morris Back In Exceptional & Weird Territory http://dlvr.it/7dmR5

'The Way Back' again - http://tinyurl.com/374y9yc

FNC '10 Reviews: 'Another Year' Another Delight From Mike Leigh; Vinterberg's 'Submarino' Sinks http://dlvr.it/7d9cy

VIFF '10 Reviews: 'Incendies' Maybe Not All It's Cracked Up To Be, 'The Illusionist' & More http://dlvr.it/7ZqT0

INTERVIEW: ?127 Hours' star James Franco - http://tinyurl.com/2ck6j64

Check out this awesome podcast from Danny Boyle's 127 HOURS lecture at the Soho Apple Store: http://bit.ly/dBMP9l

James Franco on the cover for "127 Hours," and our new issue online now. http://bit.ly/desSjO

Clearinghouse News

A Conversation with Tamara Drewe Director Stephen Frears: We shot it late in the year--in September, not in mid-su... http://bit.ly/cOuzO6

Clearinghouse News

Bonham Carter feels fit for a queen: Film News: 'Speech' gets actress talking up royal role -- Royal leads Colin F... http://bit.ly/cm6jBT

Clearinghouse News

Boyle hikes up number of d.p.'s on '127 Hours': Film News: Mantle, Chediak share duties on tough shoot -- For cine... http://bit.ly/c1lFTr

Clearinghouse News

In case anyone missed it, OSCAR CHAT w LexG. 127 Hours, Black Swan, Way Back: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFcal15bjjE

ThePlaylist: Mark you calendars! Terrence Malick's "The Tree Of Life" hits theaters on May 27, 2011 http://bit.ly/aS5Nog

Social Network?

Finally saw "The Social Network" last night. Good not great. It's being really overhyped by critics. Eisenberg's good...but...meh.

The OC #2

Post-Toronto and half way through October, here is the updated Oscar Clearinghouse.

This issue uses the source material from: The Envelope, Awards Daily, In Contention, Gurus of Gold, Scott Feinberg, CinemaSight, The Film Experience and Film Misery

Telluride Pics in CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Toy Story 3 4, ) Inception, 5) True Grit, 6) 127 HOURS, 7) The Kids Are All Right, 8) ANOTHER YEAR, 9) The Fighter, 10) BLACK SWAN.

The Next Five: Hereafter, Fair Game, Winter's Bone, Secretariat and Rabbit Hole.

Dropping Out: Made in Dagenham, The Way Back

HOT: Toy Story 3, True Grit, Secretariat and Rabbit Hole

COLD: 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right

COMMENT: Man, what a good trailer can do. This list (and several others on the Clearinghouse this time around) shows that True Grit is Red Hot! And one assumes it's a result of the release of its teaser and theatrical trailers...and they are good. Rabbit Hole is finally getting some heat after its generally warm reception at Toronto. I'm going to say right now that the Best Picture race is between four films: Social Network, King's Speech, True Grit and Inception.

Best Director: 1) David Fincher/Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 4) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 5) Christopher Nolan/Inception.

The Next Five: Coens/True Grit, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, David O. Russell/The Fighter, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, Doug Liman/Fair Game

Dropping Out: John Cameron Mitchell/Rabbit Hole, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK

Hot: Coens

Cold: Russell

Comment: I think Boyle and Leigh are shaky in this category and that Fincher, Hooper and Nolan are probable locks even this far out. I'd almost bet money on the Coens getting a nomination if True Grit is half as good as I think it's going to be. So, either Leigh or Boyle would be the one's to suffer.

Best Actress: 1) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone

Next Five: Julianne Moore/Kids, Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs, Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Naomi Watts/Fair Game, Sally Hawkins/Dagenham

Dropping Off: None

Hot: Julianne Moore

Cold: Hawkins

Comment: A real charge from Moore to snag a second best acting nom for Kids...

Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/KING'S SPEECH, 2) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 3) JAMES FRANCO/127 HRS., 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Jesse Eisenberg/Social Network.

Next Five: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, Sean Penn/Fair Game.

Dropping Out: None

Hot: Jeff Bridges

Not: Mark Wahlberg

Comment: Bridges is a BIG beneficiary of the burgeoning True Grit surge.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Diane Weist/Rabbit Hole, 2) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, 4) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 5) Hailee Stienfeld/True Grit.

Next Five: Elle Fanning/Somewhere, Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom, Amy Adams/ The Fighter, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN, Rebecca Hall/The Town.

Dropping Out: Sissy Spacek

Hot: Diane Weist and Rebecca Hall

Not: Melissa Leo and Jacki Weaver

Comment: Diane Weist has gone from barely in the nominee section all the way to the top of this category after the reception for Rabbit Hole following Toronto.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) GEOFFREY RUSH/KING'S SPEECH, 2) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network, 5) ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK.

Next Five: Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Justin Timberlake/The Social Network, James Brolin/True Grit, Matt Damon/True Grit, VINCENT CASSEL/BLACK SWAN.

Dropping Out: Bill Murray and Dustin Hoffman

Hot: Ed Harris and Matt Damon

Not: Well...Murray and Hoffman

Comment: I won't be surprised if both Brolin and Damon continue to move up the list if the True Grit groundswell continues. I also think Rush is the only lock at this point in this category.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Winter's Bone, 4) Love and Other Drugs, 5) True Grit

Next Five: Rabbit Hole, THE WAY BACK, 127 HOURS, Miral, The Town.

Dropping Out: How to Train Your Dragon

Hot: True Grit

Not: Rabbit Hole

Comment: True Grit moving like gangbusters in this category too.

Best Original Screenplay: 1) ANOTHER YEAR, 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) Inception, 5) The Fighter

Next Five: BLACK SWAN, Somewhere, And 4 tied at the next spots: THE ILLUSIONIST, How Do You Know, Made in Dagenham, and Hereafter

Dropping Out: Blue Valentine

Hot: BLACK SWAN

Not: Nada

Comment: The only surprise to me here is that King's Speech isn't sitting at the #1 spot.

The Numbers: If the nominations were announced today and these picks were accurate...

Big Eight Noms:

THE KING'S SPEECH 6,

The Social Network 5,

True Grit, Kids Are All Right, ANOTHER YEAR 4,

127 HOURS, Inception, The Fighter 3

Toy Story 3, BLACK SWAN, Winter's Bone, Rabbit Hole 2

Noms and Near Noms added together:

True Grit 7

KING'S SPEECH, Social Network, Kids Are All Right, The Fighter, BLACK SWAN 6

127 HOURS, Fair Game, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole 4

Telluride Noms Total 16 plus another 8 near noms

'King's Speech' Adds to Festival Victories http://tinyurl.com/2d9s2yz

'The Way Back' trailer - http://tinyurl.com/2e9lz2f

RT @slashfilm: Paramount Picks Up ?Young Adult? by Diablo Cody and Jason Reitman http://goo.gl/fb/a8RDD

The Way Back to the Oscars?

Variety_Film reports that:
Newmarket sets date for Telluride Film Fetival pick 'The Way Back': Film News: Peter Weir's prison drama set for awards-qualifying run -- Newmarke... http://bit.ly/aH2Cwy

TheWrap: First Look: The Coen Brothers' 'True Grit' http://tinyurl.com/24khtaf http://myloc.me/cxtix

Biutiful just announced as Mexico's foreign language submission!

The Oscar Clearinghouse #1 for 2010

Well...

We're post-Telluride, post-Venice and post-Toronto...it's time!

Here's your first look at The Oscar Clearinghouse for 2010. The focus from now until Oscar night is to track what's hot and what's not and, most importantly, how the films from Telluride #37 are playing in the sweepstakes for Oscar success. We try to do that by combining and assessing the Oscar prognostication work done through traditional and internet media. As we start this year's analysis, we utilized the predictions already out there from the following:

Film Misery

Scott Feinberg

Gurus of Gold at Movie City News

The Envelope from the LA Times

InContention.com

Film Experience

We'll add others as the Oscar season picks up speed.

As always, Telluride films will be in CAPS and in BOLD.

Best Picture:

The second year for ten nominees and here are your leaders at this point: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) The Kids Are Allright, 5) Inception, 6) Toy Story 3, 7) ANOTHER YEAR, 8) True Grit, 9) The Fighter, 10) BLACK SWAN.

And the next five lurking are: Made in Dagenham, Hereafter, Fair Game, Winter's Bone and THE WAY BACK.

Comment: The separation between Social Network and King's Speech is negligible. I was a bit surprised that Rabbit Hole didn't get enough juice to be on the initial list of 15. I expect that will change. I was also a little surprised that Scorsese's Shutter Island got no mention.

Best Director: 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 3) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 4) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) David O. Russell/The Fighter.

The next five (well six, actually): Christopher Nolan/Inception, Lisa Cholodenko/Kids Are Allright, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, The Coen Brothers/True Grit, John Cameron Mitchell/Rabbit Hole, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK.

Comment: The Social Network and The King's Speech may be neck and neck in the Best Picture category but Fincher has a commanding early lead on the field for Best Director. Personally, I suspect that we'll eventually see Nolan jump into the top 5 and Russell fall.

Best Actress: 1) Annette Bening/The Kids Are Allright, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) LESLEY MANNVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) Sally Hawkins/Made in Dagenham

The next five: Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs, Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are Allright, Naomi Watts/Fair Game.

Comment: It seems that the "Kids Are Allright" folks have opted to place both Bening and Moore in the lead category. I don't know if that's honesty, reflecting the relative equal size of the roles or if they really think they've got a shot to land 2 Best Actress noms from the same film. Bening seems a lock as does Portman. The other three spots...up for grabs.

Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 4) Jesse Eisenburg/The Social Network, 5) (tie) Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.

The next four: Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Sean Penn/Fair Game.

Comment: Firth is a solid first. Franco also seems a near lock. I'm a little surprised that Eisenberg is in the top 5...even though the hype for Social Network is huge.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Melinda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, 4) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom, 5) Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole

The next five: Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, Elle Fanning/Somewhere, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, Amy Adams/The Fighter, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN.

Comment: My surprise here is that there isn't any love for Marion Cotillard in Inception. She gets the best acting moments in what is one of the biggest films of the year and an almost certain best picture nominee. I would have thought that she might be the lone acting aspirant from that film...but nary a breath of that from any of our predictors. This may be the most competitive race of them all.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are Allright, 4) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network, 5) Justin Timberlake/The Social Network

The next six: Bill Murray/Get Low, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK, Josh Brolin/True Grit, Dustin Hoffman/Barney's Version and VINCENT CASSEL/BLACK SWAN.

Comment: Like Supporting Actress, this is a very competitive category...at least right now. I think Rush is a lock despite sitting at #2 behind Bale...who I don't think IS a lock at this point. Social Network would pull off quite the coup if it can snag noms for both Garfield and Timberlake. Last note here...I'm campaigning for Colin Farrell from The Way Back!

Original Screenplay: 1) The Kids Are Allright, 2) ANOTHER YEAR, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) The Fighter, 5) Inception

The next five: Hereafter, THE ILLUSIONIST, Toy Story 3, BLACK SWAN, Blue Valentine

Comment: I'm wondering if The Illusionist is really an "original" script since it's a Tati script that was intended to be live action the Sylvain Chomet has made as an animated film.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Rabbit Hole, 3) Toy Story 3, 4) Winter's Bone, 5) Love and Other Drugs

The next six: 127 HOURS, THE WAY BACK, Miral, True Grit, The Town, How to Train Your Dragon.

Comment: If the heat continues to build for 127 Hours, it will likely slip up the ladder here.

AND THE NUMBERS:

If the nominees for the Big Eight categories were announced today and these prognosticators were 100% correct there would be:

6 Nominations each for The Social Network, The King's Speech and The Fighter.

4 apiece for Another Year, True Grit, 127 Hours and The Kids Are Allright

3 for Toy Story 3.

When combined with potential nominations the leader becomes True Grit with 7 noms and potentials. Social Network and King's Speech stay at 6 noms and are joined by: The Fighter, The Kids Are Allright and Black Swan each with a total of 6 noms or potentials. Others with 4 noms and/or potentials are: 127 Hours, Toy Story 3, and The Way Back.

As of this posting Telluride films account for 15 nominations and 11 potentials in these Big Eight categories. And of course there are a bunch more nominations to be had in the other categories as well as Foreign and Documentary. I think it's very likely that Telluride will have its largest Oscar presence in the three years I've been doing the blog.

Additionally, since this is the first edition of the Clearinghouse for this year, it's difficult to tell which films have momentum and which are losing momentum...that being said, I' ll take a stab: I am sensing that The Fighter is losing ground, Hereafter may never get off the ground in the Oscar derby and True Grit may be bigger than we all know at this point. Of course, that could all be wildly wrong.

I'll be back soon with an update.

Toronto Critic's Poll and TFF #37

Toronto critics have released their poll of what they thought was best at the TIFF. A good number of Telluride films made the list. You can find the poll at Indie wire at this link:

http://tinyurl.com/3yjz6ql

Notable on their top 12 list: 127 Hours, Black Swan, The King's Speech, Incendies and Another Year. Among docs the critics listed: Tabloid and Inside Job.

Lead Performances cited were: James Franco in 127 Hours, Natalie Portman in Black Swan and Colin Firth in The King's Speech.

Supporting Performances cited included: Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech and Vincent Cassel in Black Swan.

ThePlaylist: 'The King's Speech' Wins The People's Choice Award At TIFF http://dlvr.it/5Xf91

TFF #37 and Our Crystal Ball

We started this year's countdown and prognostications for TFF #37 back during the week of Mar. 16-23. At that time we listed a couple of dozen possibilities and really focused on 16 of those. Of those initial lists 5 ended up at Telluride: "127 Hours'" "Biutiful'" "Black Swan," "Never Let Me Go," and "Another Year". Some of them got bumped to 2011..."The Descendants," "The Tree of Life," "The Eagle (of the Ninth)." Some were released during the summer: "Chloe," and "Love Ranch." But we're feeling pretty good that we had 5 of Telluride's 24 features on our very first list of possibles.

Prior to Cannes in May, we further underlined "Biutiful" and"Another Year" and we added "Tamara Drewe" and "The Princess of Montpensier." Of course we also highlighted: "On Tour," "Fair Game," "You, My Joy," "Uncle Boonmee," "Blue Valentine," Godard's "Socialism," "You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger," and Aurora." And we overlooked "Poetry," Of Gods and Men" and "Inside Job."

Post Cannes we got "Poetry" and "Of Gods and Men" into the conversation. And despite its non-inclusion at Cannes, we continued to speculate the Julian Schnabel"s "Miral" would be part of the Telluride lineup.

Late July we got "The Way Back" and "The King's Speech on our first speculative list and we began making the transition from speculation to reportage as we tracked down tidbits from various media...including the first hints beyond our own speculation that we might see "Never Let Me Go."

And by the time we got to the middle of August, with Jay A. Fernandez's Hollywood Reporter story, we were getting a really good bead on the TFF #37 playlist.

All in all we feel pretty smug about the quality of our guesswork and information gathering for this year. Of course, we didn't get it all exactly right...we missed some that we might have gotten and included things that never showed....Really, I'd like to know the behind the scenes story on Schnabel's "Miral" because I was 100% convinced we would see it.

Now, as we have for the past couple of years, we will morph this into a clearinghouse for Oscar info and speculation centered on the films that played at Telluride. We'll be up with our first real look at that sometime in the next ten days or so as the dust settles following Toronto's fest. But just as a quick overview...Telluride may have its largest Oscar presence ever this year..."The King's Speech," "Black Swan," "127 Hours," "Inside Job," and others could swell Telluride connected film Oscar nominations past a cumulative total of 30...which would be impressive indeed.

Thanks to those who actually read the blog in the run-up to T-ride this year. If the counts can be believed, the numbers were surprisingly large this year and it looks as if THIS BLOG IS NOW THE MOST REFERENCED BLOG CONCERNING THE TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL...which blows my mind. And that scares me a little.

Hope you continue to drop in over the next few months and then after the Oscars...next spring...we'll start it all up again (actually we've already begun speculation for TFF #38..."The Tree of Life" and Jason Reitman's Diablo Cody penned, "Young Adult").

Malick's "The Tree of Life" DID PLAY TELLURIDE...Sort of

So, it turns out that the most elusive film of the last year and a half DID PLAY in Telluride last week...to an incredibly limited audience.

Anne Thompson of Thompson On Hollywood at Indiewire reports this morning that there were two separate screenings of the Terrence Malick film that features Brad Pitt and Sean Penn. Here is the link to her story from this morning:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2010/09/13/waiting_for_malick_which_film_fest_will_debut_tree_of_life/#more

The screenings were apparently done separately for Sony Picture Classics and Fox Searchlight. As we reported last week, Fox bought the film from Apparition.

As we have mentioned, we sat with the Apparition folks at the Patron Brunch on Friday (Sept. 3) and they were very tight-lipped. We even suggested that they seemed sort of uptight...now we probably have a pretty good idea why.

So, what's it all mean? In the wake of the sale to Fox Search last week, there has already been a ton of speculation about the path "Tree" will take, but we'd estimate that 99% of it says its release will be in 2011...somewhere, somehow. I've seen mention of Sundance, Cannes and All the way to the fall fests and Venice next September. Or could it boomerang back to Telluride for TFF #38? We shall see.

Tree of Life

Quick note...The Hollywood Reporter and Awards Daily are reporting that Terrence Malick's "The Tree of Life" with Brad Pitt and Sean Penn has been "acquired" by Fox Searchlight. Wonder if that deal was going down in Telluride last weekend...bet it was since all the players were there.

TFF 37 Post Mortem

Still recovering. It's a looooong drive back to the Oklahoma Panhandle from southwest Colorado.

We had a terrific time in Telluride. I got in 11 films...and , of course, didn't see everything I wanted to see. Still saw some great stuff...and a couple of films I wasn't all that impressed with.

Here's the rundown of the films and a couple of other notes...

"Black Swan"...Portman is terrific. There was a lot of Oscar speculation on her behalf during the weekend...and with good reason. Aronofsky is brash and bold. He's painting with big, broad strokes (no surprise there). The buzz seemed to be fairly strong and largely positive. For me, the film seemed like it was going through the motions for the first two acts...but then Aronofsky really starts playing with the Portman character in terms of reality/surreality...and it gets pretty interesting from that point on. There was also some speculation that it could get into the Best Picture race...but I don't know that it's going to play all that well with older members of the Academy...it's pretty violent and the lesbian sex scene between Portman and Mila Kunis could also curb some voters enthusiasm. ***

"127 Hours"...James Franco is fantastic as Aron Ralston and Danny Boyle is very creative in bringing a really static story to life and doing so in a way so that our attention is always commanded by the screen. Franco seems like a sure Oscar bet...the film was also getting good buzz as a possible Best Picture contender. I thought it was really good, but not great. Franco is very good and Boyle's direction is impressive. That being said, for me...it's no Slumdog and if I heard a knock on it this weekend it was about the gruesomeness of the arm amputation and that stylistically Boyle seemed to use too many of the same tricks that he employed in Slumdog. ***

"Never Let Me Go"...this seemed to be the most polarizing film of the weekend. People in line seemed to either love it or hate it. Oddly, I was somewhere in the middle which was frustrating, because it was pretty high on my list to see. It seemed to me that Romanek aimed for a cool detached telling of the story so as to underscore the control over the lives of the main characters and the inevitable conclusion of their existence. And while that's a valid choice, it also seemed to leach away much of a chance that the actors had many places to go. It also seems to me that that choice makes it a real challenge for the audience to care very much about what happens to these people. Finally, with the exception of Carey Mulligan, I don't think that Andrew Garfield or Keira Knightley have the chops or maturity to do this kind of subtlety and pull it off. And even Mulligan is forced to be pretty one note.**

"Biutiful"...here I seemed to be the odd man out...I'm a moderate fan of Inarritu's previous work. I liked Babel quite a lot. And I like Bardem quite a bit too...and I know that he co-won Best Actor at Cannes for this... but...this just didn't work for me (and I gather that the reviews were pretty split in Cannes). It seemed to me that his film hit every possible cliche in the display of Bardem's suffering till he dies. I thought it telegraphed almost every single plot development and that Bardem was awfully one note in his performance. But, hey, that's just me...most of the rest of the folks I had conversation with thought it was good and that Bardem was fantastic...**

"The King's Speech"...by now, I'm sure that you've heard that this was the biggest buzz coming out of the fest. And I hate to be a "me-tooer"...but this is a really, really good, maybe great film. Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush are stunningly good. Oscar noms for both are going to happen. Helena Bonham Carter also seems to be getting some attention for Supporting Actress...though it's not nearly as showy a role as the two male leads. Tom Hooper's direction is impressive. Expect noms for him and costuming as well as screenplay at a minimum...This is the film that has the heat that Juno, Slumdog and Up in the Air had coming out of Telluride each of the past few years.****

My second favorite film of the weekend was Mike Leigh's "Another Year." I've never been a huge Leigh fan, but this is a fine, fine piece of work. It looks at a year in the lives of an older couple and their orbit of friends and relatives. Jim Broadbent and Ruth Sheen are graceful and lovely as the couple at the center of the story. I understand that it got a really warm reception at Cannes and that a lot of the critic types were surprised it didn't win any prize...I'd like to think it has a shot at one of the ten Best Picture slots and director and screenplay nods as well. Everyone seems to think Lesley Manville will play for a Best Actress nom, although she might more properly be considered Supporting.***1/2

"The Way Back"...Peter Weir's story of a 4000 mile trek of a group escaping from a Soviet gulag in 1940. They walked out. It's stirring, well made, well acted...Beautiful and purportedly shot for only $29 million. Jim Sturgess is the lead and is good. Ed Harris is in support and is really good and Colin Farrell is fantastic. One of the best things he's ever done. After his little turn last year in "Crazy Heart" and this, I'm beginning to think he's turning into a pretty fine actor. Some Oscar buzz for this last weekend...but I think it got really squeezed out of the buzz because of all the hoopla for King's Speech, Black Swan and 127 Hours.***

"The Illusionist"...Sylvain Chomet's follow up to "The Triplets of Belleville"...beautifully done. It was delightful. Often a perfect example of words over rated as method of communication. It's clever, warm, funny and touching. ***1/2

"Tamara Drewe"...a lot of people on line really loved this comedy from Stephen Frears...I liked it, didn't love it. It's a mildly amusing sex comedy and nothing more. Bill Camp steals the movie from Gemma Arterton (as the title character) as an American writer struggling to finish his opus on Thomas Hardy.**1/2

"Tabloid"...Errol Morris' doc about...well...Joyce McKinney and her "love" for a young Mormon in the 1960's that led to charges of kidnapping and rape...her rape of the young man???? Truth IS stranger than fiction...repeatedly. And the film is hysterical in the bargain. Morris continually finds ways to make your jaw drop and to elicit uproarious laughter. Recommended!***

Finally from South Korea.."Poetry" This won the screenplay award at Cannes. It's too long and could use some judicious editing. Jeong-hee Yoon is lovely as the grandmother trying to find some beauty in her existence and dealing with and grandson that is less than stellar.**1/2

Additional notes:I was surprised that Julian Schnabel's "Miral" didn't show. I was sure it would. And people that are a lot smarter than I am about this stuff had said that it would.

I heard that Kelly Reichardt's "Meek's Cutoff" starring Michelle Williams just missed being a part of the festival lineup; that they just ran out of places to put stuff in the program. Too bad, I would have liked to have seen it since the early word is really positive and I really like Michelle Williams.

I also heard good things about "Inside Job'" "Incendies" and "Precious Life."

I'll do a comparative wrap-up of the success of this Blog's prognostications in the next couple of days. Just a quick note: It was pretty good this year!

And finally, I don't think it was 2007 (which, for me, is the measure of the quality of the fest...Juno, Into the Wild, Diving Bell, Persepolis, The Savages, Band's Visit and more)...but it certainly may have been the 2nd best overall of the five that I have attended.

Now, as we have for the past couple of years, this blog will morph into an awards season tracker for the films that played at TFF #37. From the early buzz, it seems that Telluride may play it's biggest role in Oscar night in many a year...maybe its biggest ever.

And as always...I can't wait till next year and TFF 38!