"Monuments Views"/Oscar Moves/Cannes Hopes/The Sapphires/Wadaja Festivals On/Paradise Love Trailer

Good Thursday morning,

"MONUMENTS" VIEWS

Just Jared has posted a number of photos from the set of the George Clooney directed, co-written and starring vehicle "The Monuments Men".  They feature Clooney and co-star Matt Damon.  You can access them here via Awards Daily:

http://www.justjared.com/2013/03/25/george-clooney-monuments-men-set-with-matt-damon/

OSCAR MOVES

The Academy Awards have been moved to March 2 for 2014 to avoid conflicting with the Winter Olympics.  That puts it a week later than it was this year.  The Oscars will reportedly move back to the last Sunday in February for 2015.  Check the story from The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/oscars-move-march-2014-82346

CANNES HOPES

Guy Lodge at HitFix/InContention has posted his list of 10 films that he hopes/thinks will be Cannes choices.  You can see that post here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/10-films-were-most-hoping-to-see-at-the-cannes-film-festival

Included on Lodge's list that I think have some Telluride potential:

"The Past"
"The Congress"
"Twelve Years a Slave"
"Lowlife"


THE SAPPHIRES

Guy Lodge also continues his look at Wayne Blair's "The Sapphires".  Take a look:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/wayne-blair-and-deborah-mailman-on-taking-the-sapphires-from-stage-to-screen

WADJDA GOES FESTIVALING

"Wadjda", which is notable among other things for being a Saudi Arabian film directed by a woman, was highlighted at TFF #39 and now has been selected to open The Gulf Film Festival in Dubai.  That news came from Screen Daily:

http://www.screendaily.com/festivals/wadjda-to-open-gulf-film-festival/5053335.article


PARADISE: LOVE

Ulrich Seidl's "Paradise:Love" which played at TFF #39 has a trailer and is reportedly scheduled to open on April 26.  Here's that trailer:

More on Monday...

More on " Lynne Leaves a Gun"/Cannes' New Poster/Sapphires' O'Dowd

Good Monday morning...

MORE ON "LYNNE LEAVES A GUN"

There's a lot of speculation and back and forth vis-a-vis the departure of director Lynne Ramsay from "Jane Got a Gun" which as far as I know still stars Natalie Portman.  It does NOT star either Michael Fassbender or Jude Law as they have both bolted from the project.  It probably does star Joel Edgerton and probably is being directed by Gavin O'Connor.  It may star Jeff Bridges, Tobey Maguire or Jake Gyllenhall...or none of them.

All of this about a film that at one  point was likely to be on the Telluride #41 watch list...now, who knows if it even gets completed.

I can tell you this, filming IS going on around Santa Fe, New Mexico.  I was in Santa Fe the past couple of days and film crew signage was up to direct cast and crew to locations near there so something appears to be going on amid all the turmoil.  And there reportedly has been a good deal of turmoil.  The Hollywood Reporter had a large post up this week about all of the problems that have bedeviled the project.  That is here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/natalie-portmans-jane-got-a-430317

The Playlist also delved into the story as well:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/did-lynne-ramsay-quit-jane-got-a-gun-over-final-cut-20130322

The Playlist also carried the story that Bridges, Maguire and Gyllenhall might be prospects to replace Law:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/jake-gyllenhaal-tobey-maguire-jeff-bridges-eyed-to-replace-jude-law-in-jane-got-a-gun-20130321


Stay tuned...

CANNES' NEW POSTER

Paul Newman and Joanne Woodward class up the new poster released this week for the 66th edition of the Cannes Film Festival.  Here's the poster:

And an accompanying story from The Wrap:

https://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/paul-newman-joanne-woodward-kiss-featured-cannes-poster-82166

SAPPHIRES' O'DOWD

Wayne Blair's "The Sapphires" is finally in theaters (in limited release) and Chris O'Dowd, who is outstanding in the film, is getting a lot of love and attention for his work in the film.  Guy Lodge at HitFix/InContention has a nice profile of the Irish actor here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/chris-odowd-on-the-sapphires-making-it-in-america-and-why-hes-no-ken-doll


More on Thursday...

Leigh and SPC/ Lynne Leaves a Gun/Sapphires and Killing

Good Thursday everyone...


LEIGH AN SPC

Mike Leigh has a new project and Sony Pictures Classics has signed up to distribute.  That means that a likely Telluride film for the future is inn the drawing boards since both Leigh and SPC are common fixtures at the TFF.  Here are a slew of links to that story:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/mike-leighs-turner-biopic-finds-a-home-with-sony-classics

https://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/mike-leighs-upcoming-project-picked-sony-pictures-classic-81736

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/sony-pictures-classics-mike-leigh

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/mike-leigh-gets-to-work-on-untitled-j-m-w-turner-feature-with-timothy-spall/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/sony-pictures-classics-reteam-writer-429694

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/sony-pictures-classics-picks-up-mike-leighs-untitled-jmw-turner-biopic-for-2014-release-20130319


LYNNE LEAVES A GUN

Meanwhile, another story that may, in fact, derail a film that had at least some Telluride potential.  I'm talking about "Jane Got a Gun" which, until Tuesday, was being directed by Lynne Ramsay as her follow up to "We Need to Talk About Kevin".  Here are a number of reports posted this week:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/warrior-director-gavin-oconnor-replaces-lynne-ramsay-on-jane-got-a-gun-20130320

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/we-need-to-talk-about-the-director-lynne-ramsay-quits-jane-got-a-gun-on-first-day-of-production-20130319

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/lynne-ramsay-no-shows-and-drops-out-of-jane-got-a-gun-on-first-day-of-production/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/we-need-to-talk-about-the-director-lynne-ramsay-quits-jane-got-a-gun-on-first-day-of-production-20130319

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/lynne-ramsay-quits-natalie-portman-western-jane-got-a-gun-on-day-one-of-shooting


TFF #39 FILMS CONTINUE TO MAKE A MARK

Included here, a new interview with Chris O'Dowd of "The Sapphires" which opens in limited release this weekend...go see it if you can...it's pretty good.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/toronto-2012-chris-odowd-bridesmaids-sapphires-movie-369735

Anne Thompson talks "The Act of Killing".  The Josh Oppenheimer documentary.  That post is here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/act-of-killing-at-moma



More Monday, have a great weekend!

More Cannes Spec/Ginger and Rosa Emerging

Good Monday morning.

MORE CANNES SPECULATION

The Cannes 66 guessing game continues with a very extensive post from the folks at The Playlist going up earlier this week that offers their best insights into the films that could play in France in May consequently providing us with a window to view potential Telluride players.  You can find that post here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/predicting-the-2013-cannes-film-festival-lineup-who-will-join-the-great-gatsby-on-the-croisette-20130314

Among the lists I found these titles that I'd think might have the best chance at the Cannes/Telluride double play:


On their "Strong Contenders" list: "Lowlife", "The Past","Twelve Years a Slave" and "The Congress".

On their "Possibilities" list: "Blood Ties".

And no film on their "Long Shot" list appears to be particularly Telluride-y...at least for now.


"GINGER AND ROSA" EMERGING

As Sally Potter's "Ginger and Rosa" has been on the brink of release this last week it and its film makers and cast have been increasingly on display.  Here I have included a couple of posts about the film.  First from "Women and Hollywood" an interview with Potter from the Toronto Festival last fall:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/womenandhollywood/tiff-interview-with-sally-potter-writer-and-director-of-ginger-and-rosa-1

And also from The Hollywood Reporter a profile of the film's star Elle Fanning:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/elle-fanning-grows-up-ginger-429035

"Ginger and Rosa" opened in limited release this past weekend.


More on Thursday...

Save the Dates/And Speaking of Cannes...

Good Thursday everyone...

SAVE THE DATES

I make the case frequently that Telluride is one of the five most influential/important film festivals on the planet...and sometimes people will ask me what the other four are...which is a good question, because they all have ramifications in as far as Telluride is concerned.  Additionally, they've all announced their dates which can give you a rough template about how films will jockey about and when.

Sundance, of course, has already happened. 

Sundance and Venice tend to be exclusive...though there are usually 2-3 films the cross-pollinate between Venice and Telluride.

Toronto tends to be inclusive...there is usually a good deal of overlap between Toronto and T-ride although there have been rumbles that that might be less true in the future.

New York tends to act in both capacities.  The NYFF will often have Telluride overlap, but it will also seek to snag 2-3 films exclusively.

Cannes #66 is scheduled for: May 15-26.

Venice is set for: Aug. 28-Sept. 7.

and Toronto is scheduled for: Sept. 5-15.

I think you could plausibly make the case that The New York Film Festival is the other possible "one of the five most..." film festivals on the planet and it, too, has an impact on what does and doesn't play at Telluride.  It's dates are: Sept. 27-Oct. 13.

So, for now, it's all about the Cannes fest and the choices those programmers make primarily for competition and the "Un Certain Regard" section.  They're are likely to be a number of films in those two Cannes categories that we'll see over Labor Day weekend.


AND SPEAKING OF CANNES...

The organizers of the 66th edition announced this week that Baz Luhrmann's "The Great Gatsby" will open the festival.  Seems a little weird that it is the choice as it will have opened here in the U.S. the weekend before.  Curious.

Nevertheless, Cannes is two months away and we're starting to see some serious speculation about possible films for competition and other parts of the program.  I've included two that were just posted within the last few days:

Here's Deadline.com's speculation: http://www.deadline.com/2013/03/cannes-2013-lineup-predictions-films/

It includes Telluride possibles such as: "Nebraska", "Twelve Years a Slave", "Blood Ties", "Lowlife" and "The Past".

Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon also posted a Cannes spec piece this week that builds on the Deadline post which I have linked here:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/what-movies-will-play-at-the-2013-cannes-film-festival/


And so we await the Cannes announcement of the actual lineups to see what insights we can draw about the potential TFF #40 list of films.

More on Monday...

Oscar Matters: Another Oscar 2014 Speculation/Berlin Calling

Good Monday...

OSCAR MATTERS: ANOTHER OSCAR SPECULATION LIST FOR 2014

Brad Brevet of Rope of Silicon has tagged 40 films as potential Oscar players for the coming year.  These are the 10 on his list (which is pretty informative, by the way) that I think have the likeliest Telluride profile:

"12 Years a Slave"
"August Osage County"
"The Butler"
"Dallas Buyers Club"
"The Fifth Estate"
"Foxcatcher"
"Labor Day"
"Lowlife" (The Nightingale)
"The Monuments Men"
"Nebraska"

You can find Brevet's complete set of films beginning here:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/2014-oscar-preview-best-picture-contenders-12-years-slave-elysium-counselor/


BERLIN (2013) CALLING

The Berlin International Film Festival is usually an interesting mix of films that have already released in the U.S. and foreign films that have yet to pop up in North America.  As the following list reveals, as of late, there are usually a couple of films that make their way from Berlin to Telluride.

2012: "Barbara" and "A Royal Affair"
2011: "A Separation", "The Turin Horse" and "Pina"
2010: None
2009: "Gigante" and "London River"
2008: "Happy Go Lucky" and "I've Loved You So Long"



So what might we see from this year's recently completed Berlin fest?

Here's the lineup from the just completed festival (Feb. 7-17, 2013):

In competition:

"Dolgaya schastlivaya zhizn" ("A Long and Happy Life"), director Boris Khlebnikov.

"Prince Avalanche," David Gordon Green.

"Uroki Garmonii" ("Harmony Lessons"), Emir Baigazin.

"Vic+Flo ont vu un ours" ("Vic+Flo Saw a Bear"), Denis Cote.

"W imie ..." ("In the Name of"), Malgoska Szumowska.

"Camille Claudel 1915," Bruno Dumont.

"Elle s'en va" ("On my Way"), Emmanuelle Bercot.

"Epizoda u zivotu beraca zeljeza" ("An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker"), Danis Tanovic.

"Gloria," Sebastian Lelio.

"Gold," Thomas Arslan.

"La Religieuse" ("The Nun"), Guillaume Nicloux.

"Layla Fourie," Pia Marais.

"The Necessary Death of Charlie Countryman," Fredrik Bond.

"Nugu-ui Ttal-do Anin Haewon" ("Nobody's Daughter Haewon"), Hong Sangsoo.

"Paradies: Hoffnung" ("Paradise: Hope"), Ulrich Seidl.

"Parde" ("Closed Curtain"), Jafar Panahi and Kambozia Partovi.

"Pozitia Copilului" ("Child's Pose"), Calin Peter Netzer.

"Promised Land," Gus Van Sant.

"Side Effects," Steven Soderbergh.

Out of competition:

"Before Midnight," Richard Linklater.

"Dark Blood," George Sluizer.

"Night Train to Lisbon," Bille August.

"The Croods," Kirk De Micco and Chris Sanders.

"Yi dai zong shi" ("The Grandmaster"), Wong Kar Wai.

Trying to hit the bullseye of what films might come from Berlin's lineup isn't easy.  My best guesses: "Paradise: Hope"  (the third of a trilogy,  Paradise: Love" played at Telluride last year; the other is "Paradise: Faith"). "Gloria", "Closed Curtain" and "Camille Claudel 1915".

More on Thursday.

Telluride #39 Isn't Over/Another 2014 Oscar List

ONLY TWELVE HOURS LATE, BUT HERE IT IS...

Good Thursday.

TFF #39 ISN'T OVER

Films that were are a part of The SHOW lineup in 2012 are still rolling out and making news as they do.  Just this week we've seen the first trailer for Sarah Polley's very well received documentary "Stories We Tell".  I've posted a couple of stories that accompanied that film's roll out from The Playlist as well as Rope of Silicon:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-trailer-for-sarah-polleys-amazing-family-documentary-stories-we-tell-20130305

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/stories-we-tell-trailer-2014-oscar-contender-for-best-documentary/

As you cab see ROS writer Brad Brevet thinks "Stories" is already a Best Doc contender for next year's Oscars.

I've posted the trailer from YouTube:

Another documentary that got a lot of attention at TFF #39 was Dror Moreh's "The Gatekeepers" which was Oscar nominated but dropped to "Searching for Sugarman".  Moreh has been a gadfly as he has been promoting the film.  I've linked interview's with the director from Vice and PBS:

http://www.vice.com/read/the-director-of-the-gatekeepers-talks-about-israels-terrifying-security-state

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/art/blog/2013/02/the-oscar-documentaries-part-3the-gatekeepers.html


Here's the trailer for it too:

And in an effort to be a full service Telluride Film Blog, "At Any Price", the Dennis Quaid, Zac Efron melodrama has released an official poster:

  

I've linked an accompanying story from collider.com:

http://collider.com/at-any-price-poster/

ANOTHER 2014 OSCAR LIST

HitFix has put together a gallery featuring 25 films that the staff thinks have 2014 Oscar potential.  What's on it?

The not complete list includes: 

"August: Osage County**", "Captain Phillips"**, "The Counselor", "Diana"**,  "The Fifth Estate**", "Foxcatcher"**,"Inside Llewyn Davis", "Labor Day"**, "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"**, "The Monuments Men", "A Most Wanted Man"**, "Nebraska"**, "Oldboy"**and "Twelve Years a Slave".

Those films with an ** are some of the films on the HitFix list that they think have at least a theoretical chance of playing at Telluride.

The complete gallery is here:

http://www.hitfix.com/galleries/25-potential-oscar-contenders-for-2014/more-galleries

That's it for now, more on Monday.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook.

The World Hears About TFF #40's Fifth Day (and its new theater)/Oscar Post-Mortems/

Good Monday morning to all of you...

THE WORLD LEARNS WHAT WE'VE KNOWN FOR A GOOD LONG WHILE

The Telluride Film Festival announced this past week that:

A) This year will be their 40th Anniversary.
B) That an extra day has been added to the schedule as a part of the anniversary celebration...it will start on Thursday, Aug. 29th this year.  We knew that as the festival head honchos told us at the opening day press gathering last September.
C) That there will be a new 650 seat theater venue...we've known that was in the works for awhile too.  It will be a re-modeled Hanley Pavilion in Telluride Town Park and will be named in honor of Telluride advisor-guest-presenter-guru-gadfly Werner Herzog.  (I saw one tweet this week suggesting the Theater be nicknamed "Der Werner".   I'm suggesting we call it "The Zog!").
D) Passes are now on sale for TFF #40.

The thing is, it was all officially announced this week and the film world took a good deal of notice.

Here's the press release from TFF and VP of Press Relations Shannon Goodwin Mitchell:

TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL ANNOUNCES ITS

40th ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATION

AND PASS SALE INFORMATION

New 650 Seat Werner Herzog Theatre to be Complete for 2013 Edition

Berkeley, CA – Telluride Film Festival, presented by the National Film Preserve, announces its 40^th Anniversary set to run August 29 – September 2, 2013. An additional day of festivities has been added to the usual four-day Festival, making room for a five-day bounty of special programming and festivities. The National Film Preserve is a not-for-profit arts and educational organization that annually presents the Telluride Film Festival.

Festival passes will be available for purchase beginning tomorrow, March 1, 2013. Festival passes may be purchased at www.telluridefilmfestival.org/passes. Pass levels and descriptions may also be found on the Festival’s website. Pricing will not increase given the additional day in 2013.

Telluride Film Festival, along with the Town of Telluride, is also pleased to announce it is creating a new venue in time for its 40^th Anniversary celebration. The Werner Herzog Theatre will be situated in Telluride’s Town Park Pavilion and become the Festival’s most technologically advanced theatre accommodating 650 pass holders. Telluride Film Festival is committed to present not only the best quality films but in the most state of the art manner. TFF is also committed to maximizing pass holder enjoyment, valuing its intimate, relaxed atmosphere and will not be expanding its 2013 pass holder base.

In keeping with Festival tradition, Telluride Film Festival does not announce its program in advance, though the 40th promises to be a grand reunion highlighting all the elements of the last forty years. During this special edition of the SHOW, the Festival is thrilled it will be able to showcase its technical excellence and provide its pass holders and sponsors the highest level of service while presenting the world’s greatest films and filmmakers.

“The 40th celebration is our chance to thank and honor the founders, filmmakers and audience who have helped us create such a beloved cultural institution,” said Telluride Film Festival Executive Director Julie Huntsinger. “We are inspired every day by the cinematic genius that surrounds us and look forward to sharing the best of that on this very special occasion.”

For more information about attending Telluride Film Festival, visit www.telluridefilmfestival.org.

About Telluride Film Festival

The prestigious Telluride Film Festival ranks among the world’s best film festivals and is an annual gathering for film industry insiders, cinema enthusiasts, filmmakers and critics. TFF is considered a major launching ground for the fall season’s most talked-about films. Co-founded in 1974 by Tom Luddy, James Card, and Bill and Stella Pence, Telluride Film Festival, presented in the beautiful mountain town of Telluride, Colorado, is a four-day international educational event celebrating the art of film. Telluride Film Festival’s long-standing commitment is to join filmmakers and film connoisseurs together to experience great cinema. The exciting schedule, kept secret until Opening Day, consists of over two dozen filmmakers presenting their newest works, special Guest Director programs, three major Tributes to guest artists, special events and remarkable treasures from the past. Telluride Film Festival is a 501 (c)(3) non-profit educational program. Festival headquarters are in Berkeley, CA.

About Our Sponsors

Telluride Film Festival is supported by Land Rover North America, Turner Classic Movies, Ernst & Young, Telluride Mountain Village Owners Association, Audible.com, Universal Studios, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, Américas Film Conservancy, Pine Ridge Winery, Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group, UCLA School of Theater, Film and Television, Telluride Alpine Lodging, Meyer Sound, The London Hotel Group, ShopKeep POS, The Hollywood Reporter, Dolby, Crumpler, Boston Light and Sound, among others.

And here's some of the coverage that press release engendered:

Movie City News: http://moviecitynews.com/2013/02/telluride-film-festival-announces-its-40th-anniversary-celebration/

Thompson on Hollywood: http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/telluride-film-festival-announces-40th-edition-august-29-september-2

IndieWire: http://www.indiewire.com/article/telluride-film-festival-40th-anniversary-edition-gets-a-few-changes

Awards Daily: http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2013/02/28/telluride-sets-date-40th-anniversary-celebration/

The Hollywood Reporter: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/telluride-celebrates-40th-birthday-by-425265

Yahoo Movies: http://movies.yahoo.com/news/telluride-film-festival-sets-40th-anniversary-dates-010112248.html

Hollywood News: http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2013/03/01/40th-anniversary-of-the-telluride-film-festival-august-29-september-2-2013/

InContention.com: http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/telluride-announces-40th-anniversary-festival-celebration-and-creation-of-new-venue

OSCAR POST-MORTEMS

Kris Tapley and Anne Thompson dissect last week's Oscars on Oscar Talk:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-107-wrapping-up-the-85th-annual-academy-awards

Awards Daily's Sasha Stone does the same on her Oscar Podcast:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/oscarpodcast/2013/03/02/oscar-podcast-episode-21/

AND NOW...THE FIRST STAB IN THE DARK

The Hollywood Reporter posted its first spec piece about 2014 Oscar possibilities this week.  Yes, The body of the 85th Oscar ceremony was still warm.  Nevertheless, that's where I'll start with the speculation, analysis and guesswork for TFF #40.  The entire THR story is here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/oscars-2014-early-best-picture-422483

But here's a quick rundown of the films that they include:

"August: Osage County"

"Captain Phillips"

"Foxcatcher"

"Fruitvale"

"Inside Llewyn Davis"

"Monuments Men"

"Nebraska"

"Saving Mr. Banks"

"Wolf of Wall Street"

So...what can I say about these 9 prospects?

Count on "Nebraska" being in Telluride.  Alexander Payne's new film with Bruce Dern and Will Forte will play.  Payne has become a T-ride regular after having guest directed and subsequently debuting "The Descendants" there.

Pic from "August: Osage County"

I suspect that there is at least some chance that we could see either (or both) "Monuments Men" and "August: Osage County".  That speculation is based in part on the George Clooney connection to both of those projects (producer on "August" and Producer-writer-director-actor on "Monuments").  Clooney was a tributee in 2011 and cannot have been displeased that "Argo", which he also co-produced, debuted at Telluride and went on to win Best Picture. Additionally, "August" is being distributed by The Weinstein Company which has had a presence at Telluride for some time including "The Sapphires", "Butter", "The Artist" and "The King's Speech".

Count "Foxcatcher" as a weak "Maybe".  It's directed by Bennett Miller and co-written by Dan Futterman who had great success with "Capote" at TFF in 2005.  So, that gives it a little shine...bur Bennett's last film "Moneyball" didn't play Telluride and "Foxcatcher's" distributor, Columbia, hasn't been a player at there.

Also in the incredibly weak "Maybe" column: "Wolf of Wall Street".  The Martin Scorsese directed film could conceivably show up because he's been there before and reportedly will have a Roger Ebert documentary, "Life Itself", that he executive produced playing as a part of the SHOW.  Here's that post from December:

http://wegotthiscovered.com/movies/martin-scorseses-roger-ebert-documentary-debut-2013/

Unlikely:  Both Tom Hanks projects: "Saving Mr. Banks" and "Captain Phillips" lack any real Telluride connections/characteristics.  

Also unlikely is the Coen Brothers new picture "Inside Llewyn Davis".  The Coen's are likely to be included in the Cannes lineup and that might be the only festival play for the film.  One quick note that does give a tiny ray of hope is that one of the films production companies is Scott Rudin Productions which has had an occasional presence in T-ride including "Frances Ha" last year as well  "Margot at the Wedding".  Though, admittedly, that's a Noah Baumbach connection more than a Scott Rudin connection.

And "Fruitvale" is off the table as it premiered at Sundance.

That's all for now...More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

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Oscar and Telluride/And Our Attention to Turns To...

Good Morning to All...

OSCAR AND TELLURIDE

Last Sunday the 2012 Telluride Film Festival (#39) found itself as having been the North American host for 3 films that collectively earned 5 Oscars.  "Paperman (Best Animated Short) and "Amour" (Best Foreign Language Film) each won one apiece while "Argo" won 3: Best Film Editing, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Film.

The SHOW continued this year to be a part of the awards season.

I have pointed out in the last few posts that Telluride has been the jumping off point for 4 out of the last 5 Best Picture winners.  Others have noticed as well.  John Horn posted a piece in the Los Angeles Times a couple of weeks ago making the same point and just this week The Hollywood Reporter noted that Telluride is or has been a crucial part of the awards season as one of the festivals that mattered most.  Joey Magidson's post  is here:

http://scottfeinberg.com/which-festivals-and-precursor-awards-mattered-most-in-the-oscars-outcome

Magidson also wrote a similar piece immediately after Oscar nominations were announced much to the same effect.  That's here:

http://scottfeinberg.com/which-film-festivals-and-release-periods-were-most-effective-for-this-years-oscar-nominees

And for good measure, here's the link again for the John Horn/LA times piece:

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/moviesnow/la-et-mn-oscars-2013-telluride-festival-emerges-as-best-picture-predictor-20130218,0,3533282.story

Denver Post film critic Lisa Kennedy posted recently that Telluride could, in fact, claim some credit for "Argo's" success.  That's here:

http://www.denverpost.com/movies/ci_22640149/can-telluride-take-some-credit-argos-success-sure

It makes for interesting reading and, as you might expect, I'll have more to say about this subject in the next couple of weeks.


AND OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO...

MTFB changes course now.  Oscars are over and it's time to start thinking about TFF #40 and begin playing the game of trying to ferret out what films may come our way over Labor Day weekend.  To that end I have included a link to a piece from Movie City News' Jeff Howell speculating on the possible films for the Cannes Film Festival in May. 

Regular readers of this space and Telluride attendees know that Cannes and Telluride usually share many films.  Take a look at the Howell post...we'll talk on Monday:

http://moviecitynews.com/2013/02/divining-cannes-2013/


And that's all this morning for a truncated version of Michael's Telluride Film Blog.  I'm still in recovery mode...

More on Monday...

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There's Got to Be a Morning After

Good Post-Oscar Monday to All that have dialed up the blog today...

OSCAR MATTERS

Here's the rundown of last night's Oscar winners and a comment or two along the way.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: "Paperman".  FAC gets this right and this was the first film at TFF #39 to win an Oscar for the evening.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: "Curfew".  FAC correct.  Telluride possible "Asad" does not win.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: "Inocente".  FAC goes 3 for 3 in the "short" film categories; a feat that would normally guarantee a stunning overall success rate for the night...hmmm...didn't happen.

BEST SOUND MIXING: "Les Miserables".  FAC correct.

BEST SOUND EDITING: The FAC had "Life of Pi" winning this barely over winners , that's right, winners...plural, an Oscar tie between "Skyfall" and "Zero Dark Thirty".  Various experts reported that it was the 6th tie in Oscar history.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: "Life of Pi".  FAC right.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR: "Les Miserables".  FAC right.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: "Anna Karenina"  The FAC gets it right.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: "Lincoln".  This was a mild surprise over "Anna Karenina".  This was also 1 of 4 categories in which I had suggested that the metric might be wrong.  My "hunch", however was the "Life of Pi" would win.

BEST SCORE: "Life of Pi".  The FAC was back on track here.

BEST SONG: "Skyfall" from "Skyfall".  The FAC is right and there was never much doubt, although Adele's performance seemed to be overshadowed by Jennifer Hudson's and Barbra Streisand's and the Les Mis cast...at least to me.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: "Brave".  The FAC was leaning to "Wreck-It Ralph" so it misses.  I had a hunch that it might be "Brave".

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:  "Amour".  FAC gets this right.  "Amour's" only win of the night.  The FAC had it edging into the Original Screenplay Oscar and I had a hunch that Emmanuelle Riva would win Best Actress.  Nevertheless, this was the 2nd Oscar of the night for TFF #39 films.

BEST DOCUMENTARY:  "Searching for Sugarman".  FAC correct.

BEST FILM EDITING: "Argo".  FAC correct.  "Argo's" first win of the night and TFF #39 has it's third Oscar winner.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: "Life of Pi".  FAC is correct here.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Chris Terrio for "Argo". FAC is right.  "Argo's" 2nd award and number 4 for Telluride films.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Quentin Tarantino for "Django Unchained".  And here's where the FAC starts to go off the rails.  The FAC had an "Amour" win here, although all of the signs indicated a close race with "Django" right in the thick of it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz for "Django Unchained".  FAC wrong here as well as it had DeNiro.  But this was an intense category and maybe the most competitive of the night.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:  Anne Hathaway for "Les Miserables".  FAC right on this locked category.

BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day Lewis for "Lincoln".  Another easy FAC pick as this was a foregone conclusion.

BEST ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence for "Silver Linings Playbook".  FAC gets this one right and my hunch that Riva would win is off.

BEST DIRECTION: Ang Lee for "Life of Pi".  The FAC metric had Speilberg winning in  a close category.  I intuited a win by Lee.  "Hunches" go 2 of 4 for the night.

BEST PICTURE: "Argo".  The FAC and most of the rest of the Oscar pundit world is right.  TFF #39 with 5 Oscars from it's class this year.


TOTALS:
"Life of Pi"-4
"Argo"-3
"Les Miserables"-3
"Lincoln"-2
"Skyfall"-2
"Django Unchained"-2
 One apiece for: "Anna Karenina", "Zero Dark Thirty", "Amour", "Searching for Sugarman", "Paperman", "Curfew", "Silver Linings Playbook", "Brave" and "Inocente".

And yes, that's 25...because of the Sound Editing tie.

The FAC goes 18 of 24 or 75%.  My "hunchy" version actually does one batter to finish the night 19 of 24 or 79%.

AND not to beat a dead horse but 4 of the last 5 Best Picture winners started the Oscar season with a bow at Telluride.  2012: "Argo", 2011: "The Artist", 2010: "The King's Speech" and 2008: "Slumdog Millionaire".   2009 was "The Hurt Locker" winning.

And so that's Oscar and its connection to Telluride for another year.  This space will go back to its more sedentary 2 posts per week on Monday and Thursday mornings until we get to June (unless conditions warrant).  The blog also reverts to its original function (for the most part) which is to ferret out, conjecture and/or guess at what we might see in the San Juan Mountains over Labor Day weekend.

It's a five day affair this year starting on Thursday (Aug. 29) rather than Friday so there is even more to look forward to.

As always a huge thank you to Mitzi and Larry Mallard in Telluride at The river Club who make this whole weird obsession possible and a thanks as well to the very kind people who share there insight into their industry whether that be the folks in the movie biz or the Oscar bloggers whose work  sets the bar.

And, of course, to all you crazy peeps who look in on this page from time to time...thank you!

More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

It's Oscar Morning in America...

Good morning on a Sunday.  Here's the last call post for Oscar from The Film Awards Clearinghouse before it all goes down tonight in L.A.  Wish I was going to be there.

I'll be live tweeting (@Gort2) the ceremonies tonight (actually, I'll probably be live re-tweeting).  So go find me on Twitter.

I've run the numbers one last time using the resources of 9 Oscarologists all season long.  They are:


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

I have been lucky enough to meet some of these fine people over the past couple of years and I really appreciate their expertise.  Thanks!

As always Telluride #39 films are Bold!

Now onto the Last Call...

I've divided the Categories into three sub-groups: Locked, Probable and Too Close to Call, but I Will Anyway.  Here they are and here's what happens tonight (fair warning, I expect that The FAC accuracy will be right around 70-75%...that seems normal over the past 4 years and my "hunches"...probably none of them actually happen):

LOCKS

8 categories appear to have their winner solidly in place and any other winner seems virtually unthinkable.  They are:

Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina (although, I have to say...I wonder if enough Academy members even saw the film...)
Best Song: Skyfall from "Skyfall"
Best Film Editing: Argo
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Documentary: Searching for Sugarman
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln

PROBABLES

These 5 categories have likely winners, but there could still be some other film/person that edges by them;

Best Short Animation: "Paperman" is likely but "Adam and Dog" is nipping at its heels (I'm sorry but I couldn't resist the "Dog" pun/metaphor)
Best Sound Mixing: "Les Miserables" is the likely winner but "Skyfall" could win the trophy
Best Production Design: "Anna Karenina" is strong here but "Life of Pi"  could challenge  and here's my first "hunch" and diversion from The FAC metric...I think it will be "Life of Pi"
Best Cinematography: "Life of Pi" is likely to win but don't underestimate the chance that Roger Deakins finally wins after 10 nominations for "Skyfall"
Best Score: The metric says "Life of Pi" is way out front but I wouldn't be stunned by either a "Lincoln" or "Argo" win here.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL BUT I (AND THE FAC) WILL ANYWAY

10 categories have very close races as we head into this evening.  Most are two way battles, but some have even more films/performers in serious contention.

Best Live Action Short: "Curfew" has a lead that has expanded in the last few days in the FAC metric but "Buzkashi Boys", "Death of a Shadow" challenge.
Best Documentary Short: "Inocente" with a small lead here but any of three other films could easily win the award: "King's Point", "Mondays at Racine" and "Open Heart".
Best Sound Editing: "Life of Pi" holds a small edge over "Skyfall" and "Zero Dark Thirty" has made a late surge among the experts.
Best Makeup/Hair: "Les Miserables"leads "The Hobbit" by a hair...forgive me.
Best Animated Feature:  This is a no holds barred nail biter between "Wreck It Ralph" (which has the late edge) and "Brave" with "Frankenweenie still a real possibility.  Hunch #2: "Brave" wins
Best Original Screenplay: "Amour" has a slight lead over both "Django Unchained" and "Zero Dark Thirty".
Best Adapted Screenplay: "Argo" as a lead over "Lincoln" and "Silver Linings Playbook" and that lead has expanded over the lat week.
Best Supporting Actor:  A crazy category.  Robert DeNiro has edged into the lead over Tommy Lee Jones. Waltz and Hoffman have lost some ground but could still get in, especially Waltz.
Best Actress:  A very competitive three way race that The FAC process says Jennifer Lawrence has a small advantage and is closely followed by Emmanuelle Riva with Jessica Chastain still possible.  Third "hunch"  It's Riva tonight for "Amour".
Best Direction:  This is led by Steven Spielberg with Ang Lee and David O. Russell in close pursuit.  Hunch #4 is that it's Ang Lee.

AND BEST PICTURE IS...

All signs point to a win by "Argo" which, if it does happen, will mean that the Best Picture in 4 of the last 5 years went through Telluride  (2012-"The Artist", 2011-"The King's Speech", 2009-"Slumdog Millionaire").

FAC breakdown has "Argo" with 3 Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Editing (and another possible) and "Amour" with 2 (Foreign Film and Original Screenplay) with another possible for Actress.  "Paperman" is favored to win as well.

THE LAST CALL

More finals Oscar predictions from a bunch of people in the know:

Metacritic: http://www.metacritic.com/feature/2013-oscar-predictions

Gurus of Gold (Movie City News): http://moviecitynews.com/2013/02/gurus-o-gold-the-final-charts-top-2-only-1-of-2/

Gold Derby: http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/events/oscars-2012

Oscar Talk: http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-107-final-stabs-in-the-dark
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-final-predictions

HitFix/InContention: http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/final-2013-oscars-predictions-where-did-hitfixs-experts-land

Grantland: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8972352/who-win-2013-oscars

The Carpetbagger/New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/22/movies/awardsseason/the-carpetbaggers-2013-oscar-predictions.html



We'll all know later tonight.  Check back tomorrow for an Oscar post mortem.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

The Final FAC: Oscar Predictions Coming in about an hour

The Final FAC:  Oscar Predictions Coming in about an hour.

One Day to Oscar: The Shorts/Oscar Matters: More Final Predictions/No and Paperman

Hello on a Saturday.  You may not now this but the Academy Awards will be passed out tomorrow...

ONE DAY TO OSCAR: THE SHORTS

Among the toughest categories to predict, say the people who Oscar predict on a very serious level, are the "Shorts" categories.  There are three:  Live Action, Animated and Documentary.  Irrespective of the difficulty, I've crunched the numbers using the publicly posted predictions of the following:


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Telluride #39 films in Bold.

Here's what the combined wisdom says...

     +LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Death of a Shadow (4)
2) Curfew (3)
3) Buzkashi Boys (2)
4) Asad (1)
5) Henry (5)

Comment:  With more data and more eyes actually on the nominees, this category is significantly different from its last posting.  That being said, it's a very tight category and any of the top four could walk away as the winner.

     +DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Inocente (1)
2) King's Point (3)
3) Mondays at Racine (4)
4) Open Heart (2)
5) Redemption (5)

Comment:  There's some volatility in this category as well, not as much as "Live Action" but certainly a good amount.  "Inocente" maintains its position as the favorite but the category is very tight top to bottom.

     +ANIMATED SHORT

1) Paperman (1)
2) Adam and Dog (3)
3) The Longest Daycare (2)
4) Head Over Heels (4)
5) Fresh Guacamole (5) (Special note: Friuend of MTFB/FAC, Patrick Pringle, reminds me that "Frash Guacamole" played at MountainFilm)

Comment: "Paperman's" lead is fairly strong and its your likely Oscar winner but it's not a 100% lock either.  "Adam and Dog" could take this Oscar.

OSCAR MATTERS: MORE FINAL PREDICTIONS

Any number of Oscar experts are making their final claims as we get down to a matter of hours before it's all over.  I've included some of them here:

Oliver Lyttelton at The Playlist: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/oscars-our-final-predictions-for-the-2013-academy-awards-20130221

Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon: http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/final-2013-oscar-predictions-argo-best-picture-you-vote/


NO AND PAPERMAN

Two TFF #39 films that we'll hear called as nominees tomorrow nigh (and in the case of "Paperman" perhaps as a winner) are profiled recently.  The New York Times talked to "No" director Pablo Larrain:

http://www.nytimes.com/video/2013/02/15/movies/100000002068369/pablo-larran-discusses-no.html

And Zach Laws of The Gold Derby talked to "Paperman" director John Kahrs: http://www.goldderby.com/news/4064/oscars-academy-awards-animated-short-paperman-john-kahrs-film-news-entertainment-13579086.html


Final Oscar Predictions from The Film Awards Clearinghouse tomorrow!

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