Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
It's Thursday. The Apocalypse commences in one day...otherwise, hope you're doing fine...
THE FAC UPDATES FILM EDITING AND CINEMATOGRAPHY
I'm continuing to update The Film Awards Clearinghouse predictions for Oscar nominations as we down to just a matter of days before the announcement (Tuesday, Jan. 24th 8:30 am ET/5:30 am PT). Monday's post will be the last before the word comes down and will be a final comprehensive look at all 24 categories.
Today, a look at Film Editing and Cinematography as well as a stab at the Short Form categories.
I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
TFF #43 films are in Bold.
FILM EDITING
1) La La Land (1) 2) Moonlight (2) 3) Arrival (3)
4) Hacksaw Ridge (5) 5) Manchester by the Sea (6)
6) Hell or High Water (4)
7) Lion (NR)
8) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
9) Silence (7)
10) Rogue One (10)
Hot: Lion, Nocturnal Animals
Not: Hell or High Water, Silence, Sully and Fences
On the Cusp: Sully
Comment: This might tell us a lot about the relative chances that Fences will get a Best Picture nomination. It also reflects the A.C.E./Eddie nominations and the BAFTA nominations.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) La La Land (1) 2) Arrival (3) 3) Moonlight (4)
4) Silence (2)
5) Lion (6)
6) Nocturnal Animals (5)
7) Hell or High Water (NR)
8) Jackie (7)
9) Live by Night (8)
10) Hail, Caesar (9)
Hot: Hell or High Water
Not: Silence and Cafe Society
On the Cusp: Rogue One
Comment: Also reflecting a bit of the Guild and BAFTA nominations.
AND NOW AN ATTEMPT AT THE SHORT FORM FILMS
Disclaimer: Unlike the 21 feature film categories, in most cases I am only working with input from four or five of the Oscar experts in these pesky and hard to pick categories...so take these predictions with a massive grain of sodium chloride...
LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) Silent Nights 2) Nocturne in Black
3) Graffiti
4) Bon Voyage
5) Sing
6) Timecode
7) Domestic Enemies
8) The Rifle...
9) Le Femme et le TVG
10) The Way of Tea
ANIMATED SHORT
1) Inner Workings
2) Piper
3) The Head Vanishes
4) Blind Vaysha
5) Pearl
6) Pear and Cider Cigarettes
7) Borrowed Time
8) Once Upon a Line
9) Happy End
10) Under Your Fingers
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) Joe's Violin 2) The White Helmets 3) Extremis
4) Watani: My Homeland 5) 4.1 Miles
6) Frame 394
7) The Mute's House
8) Close Ties
9) The Other Side of Home
10) Brillo Pad
If The FAC goes 60% for these three categories, I'll be pleased. Also, if these predictions hold...all five shorts that played Telluride will be nominated.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM...
Here we begin linking to the Final Oscar nomination predictions from Oscar prognosticating experts:
Here are a collection of stories from the past week or so that I've collected about some if Telluride 2016's films. They range from interviews to profiles to behind the scenes posts:
THE FAC UPDATES FOR BEST PICTURE, DIRECTOR AND SCREENPLAYS
Now it's essentially all over but the waiting and the actual announcement of nominees on Jan. 24th. All of the major precursors have weighed in. Critics, Guilds, Globes and BAFTA. We're down to a week to go. As you will see in the four categories that I have listed for this post, these late breaking group announcements do move the needle when it comes to the predictions made by the Oscar experts. For example, BAFTA's love for Nocturnal Animals (which hasn't been scoring much during the past couple of months) gave it a boost and Lion and its director, Garth Davis, has clearly benefited from the nominations from the Producers and Directors Guilds.
Check the latest updates...
I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
TFF #43 films are in Bold. The film's previous position follows its title in parentheses (with trailers for the leaders in each category via YouTube).
BEST PICTURE
1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Arrival (6)
5) Hell or High Water (4)
6) Lion (7)
7) Hacksaw Ridge (9)
8) Hidden Figures 8)
9) Fences (5)
10) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
11) Silence (10)
12) Loving (NR)
Hot: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Nocturnal Animals
Not: Fences, Jackie, Sully
On the Cusp: Jackie
Comment: Fences looks to be in real danger of missing a BP nomination. Of course, the Academy could nominate nine or ten films, but seems to be the groove that we've settled into over the past couple of years.
Arrival has gone from a film that looked shaky for a BP nom into a very solid contender.
La La Land's choice for the top spot scored one point short of its highest possible score.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Damein Chazelle/La La Land (1)
2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (2)
3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester
4) Denis Villeneuve/Arrival (5)
5) Garth Davis/Lion (9)
6) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge (7)
7) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (8)
8) Martin Scorsese/Silence (4)
9) Denzel Washington/Fences (6)
10) Pablo Larrain/Jackie (10)
Hot: Davis
Not: Scorsese, Washington
On the Cusp: Ken Loach/I, Daniel Blake
Comment:This category illustrates starkly the effect of the announcements from the PGA and DGA. Garth Davis jumps into the #5 spot, up four places while Scorsese and Washington drop precipitously.
Personally, I think the 4-5 spots are likely still a giant arm-wrestling match between Davis, Gibson and Mackenzie. I'm still pulling for Villenueve and Mackenzie to snag those spots rather than Davis and Gibson.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Moonlight (1)
2) Arrival (3)
3) Fences (2)
4) Lion (4)
5) Hidden Figures (6)
6) Nocturnal Animals (10)
7) Loving (7)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (9)
9) Silence (5)
10) Deadpool (NR)
Hot: Nocturnal and Deadpool
Not: Silence and Sully
On the Cusp: Sully
Comment: I haven't talked about the ascendance of Deadpool yet. It's Writers Guild and Producers Guild nominations as well as a nom for Tim Miller as a first time director from the DGA plus an editing nom from that guild has made the film a serious part of the conversation for nominations including...are you sitting down?...Best Picture (where, if I extended my chart, it would sit at #15). Additionally, another category that shows the rise of Nocturnal Animals and the diminishing chances of Silence.
The Moonlight lead is substantial in this category.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) La La Land (2)
3) Hell or High Water (3)
4) The Lobster (4)
5) 20th Century Women (5)
6) Captain Fantastic (6)
7) Jackie (7)
8) Zootopia (8)
9) I, Daniel Blake (NR)
10) Florence Foster Jenkins (10)
Hot: I, Daniel Blake
Not: Miss Sloane
On the Cusp: Toni Erdmann
Comment: The battle for the last spot seems intense between: the films in the five through eight spots.
(PARENTHETICAL NOTE: Good God, look at the dominance of films that played TFF #43 in these four categories...top four films in the Best Pic and Directing categories and top two films in each screenwriting category...)
DIRECTORS GUILD LOVES TELLURIDE
The Directors Guild of America (DGA) announced its nominees for excellence in direction on Thursday and four TFF #43 directors and their films were named:
Damien Chazelle/La La Land
Barry Jenkins/Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villenueve/Arrival
Villeneuve's nomination was a minor surprise.
The fifth nominee was Garth Davis for Lion. Davis was also nominated for Best Direction of a First Film. Davis' nomination was a bit of a surprise and knocked out Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge, Martin Scorsese/Silence and David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water who were all thought to be serious candidates for the nomination.
The DGA is one of the best predictors (along with the PGA) among the guilds of future Oscar success, though it doesn't necessarily mean that it will predict the directing category with 100% accuracy. There's a very good chance that there will be a single divergence between the DGA list and the directors that will be announced on Jan. 24th (and more about the Academy's decision to change how that announcement is made below).
The Academy Awards nomination announcement will come a week from tomorrow but it's going to be a bit different than what we have been accustomed to over the years. AMPAS will not announce to a live group of publicists, consultants and others this year but will, instead, produce an online reveal on Oscar.com and Oscar.org as well as the network television reveal on Good Morning America on ABC.
The announcement will still come down at 8:30am ET/5:30am PT.
HANDICAPPING BEST PICTURE THROUGH GUILDS AND CRITICS
Those of you that have read this space over the years when we get to the post-Telluride six month run to the Oscars may recall that I pay more attention to some guilds and critics groups than others. For example, just this past week or so guilds for cinematographers and costumers have weighed in with their nominees and I haven't mentioned them here. It's not that I think that their contributions are less important or that their guild kudos have no predictive qualities but guild success in other areas seems to be more predictive of Oscar success.
In terms of guilds I look at the producers, directors, actors, writers and editors. I also look at the major New York and Los Angeles critics groups. In addition, I pay attention to the American Film Institutes's top film list as well the National Board of Review. Also, I pay attention to Golden Globe nominees and, when we reach this point, winners.
Throw all that in the metaphorical blender and here's what that set of data says are the most likely Best Picture Oscar nominees:
1) Moonlight- Golden Globe/Best Picture (Drama), PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG Ensemble, ACE, AFI, NBR, LA critics winner
2) La La Land- Golden Globe/Best Picture (Comedy or Musical), PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, AFI, NBR, New York Critics winner, (also LA Critic's runner-up)
3) Manchester by the Sea PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, AFI, NBR
4) Arrival- PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, AFI, NBR
5) Hell or High Water- PGA, WGA, ACE, AFI, NBR
6) Fences- PGA, WGA, SAG Ensemble, AFI
7) Hidden Figures- PGA, WGA, SAG Ensemble, NBR
8) Hacksaw Ridge- PGA, ACE, AFI, NBR
You could make a pretty good argument that these eight films will be the likely Best Picture Oscar nominees.
Moonlight and La La Land are so tight as to be virtually deadlocked. I think Moonlight gets the edge for the top spot here due to its SAG ensemble nomination.
Lurking as spoilers are these films which have two of the precursors I listed above:
Lion- PGA, DGA
Silence- NBR, AFI
Sully- NBR, AFI
Hail, Caesar- ACE, NBR
No other possible Best Picture players have more than one of the precursors I am focused on including Nocturnal Animals, Patriot's Day and Loving.
As you look at The FAC from above, it seems that Lion may well bump one of these films out of the expected eight nominations. Fences? Hacksaw? Hidden Figures?
SPEAKING OF GUILDS: CINEMATOGRAPHY
The American Society of Cinematographers named their top films last week with nominations announced on Wednesday. Three films that played the 2016 Telluride Film Festival made the field of five: La LA :and, Moonlight and Arrival. The five cinematographers and their films were:
Greig Fraser/Lion
James Laxton/Moonlight
Rodrigo Pietro/Silence
Linus Sandgren/La La land
Bradford Young/Arrival
The FAC last updated the four acting race 3-4 weeks ago and some of the ground has shifted in the lead categories. The supporting categories have remained largely the same. The largest influences in the last month have been the Golden Globes and the BAFTA announcement of nominees (see below). Those two events within the past week have moved some people around. Here's the latest, up-to-date look at the acting races with a mere dozen days left until Oscar announces.
I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
TFF #43 films are in Bold.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2) 3) Amy Adams/Arrival (6)
4) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (5)
5) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (7)
6) Anette Bening/20th Century Women (3)
7) Ruth Negga/Loving (4)
8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (8)
9) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)
10) Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train (NR)
Hot: Adams, Streep, Blunt
Not: Bening, Negga and Marion Cotillard who dropped off the list.
On the Cusp: Kate Beckinsale/Love and Friendship
Comment: Adams gets a boost from BAFTA. Streep gets a boost from her GG Lifetime acceptance speech. The race at the top between Stone and Portman is incredibly close.
BEST ACTOR
1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences (2) 3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (4)
4) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (6)
5) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (8)
6) Tom Hanks/Sully (3)
7) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)
8) Andrew Garfield/Silence (9)
9) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (7)
10) Michael Keaton/The Founder (NR)
Hot: Garfield (Hacksaw), Mortensen and Keaton
Not: Hanks, Edgerton and Adam Driver who dropped from the list.
On the Cusp: Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals
Comment: Mortensen continues to march up the list with his SAG, BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations showing that he has serious momentum. Andrew Garfield also continues to rise. The race still seems to be between Affleck and Washington for the win.
6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (6)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (8)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (9)
10) (TIE) Felicity Jones (10) and Lily Gladstone/Certain Women (NR)
On the Cusp: Haley Squires/I, Daniel Blake
Comment: An incredibly stable category that will be won by Viola Davis.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4) 5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (5)
6) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (6)
7) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (8)
8) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (7)
9) Aaron Taylor-Johnson/Nocturnal Animals (NR)
10) Issey Ogata/Silence (9)
Hot: Taylor-Johnson has exploded into the conversation just this week with his stunning Golden Globe win and his BAFTA nomination.
Not: Aaron Eckhart
On the Cusp: Stephen Henderson/Fences
PRODUCERS GUILD NOMINEES FEATURE TFF #43
One of the most well regarded precursors of probable Oscar Best Picture nominees is the Producers Guild of America (PGA). The PGA named their list of ten feature film nominees on Tuesday and it included four films that played at Telluride last September.
Those named were: Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land. The nomination for Arrival is being perceived as a strong sign that it will likely be among the films nominated for Best Picture when the Oscar nominations are announced on Jan. 24. La La Land, Manchester and Moonlight have been considered locks for some time and the PGA accolade just added to that view.
Other films named by the PGA were: Deadpool, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures and Lion.
Deadpool was a real surprise to the otherwise expected list of films. Left off: Sully, Silence and Loving.
The PGA also named The Eagle Huntress, which also played TFF #43 among the five Best Documentaries.
Coverage and analysis of the PGA nominations is here from:
Damien Chazelle's La La Land led all films in the number of nominations it received from the British Academy of Film and Television Artists on Tuesday with 11 nods. Denis Villenueve's Arrival and Tom Ford's Nocturnal Animals followed in second place with nine nominations apiece.
Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea had six nominations while Barry Jenkins Moonlight was only mentioned four times.
Here are the respective nominations for each:
La La Land: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Actress, Original Music, Cinematography, Editing. Production Design, Costume, Sound
Manchester: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing
Moonlight: Picture, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
Other notes: Toni Erdmann was nominated for Best Film not in the English Language, as was TFF #42 film Son of Saul. The Eagle Huntress was nominated for Best Documentary and Manchester by the Sea's Lucas Hedges was nominated for the Rising Star award.
Complete BAFTA nominations and analysis is here from:
Here's last night's open for the Golden Globes broadcast from Jimmy Fallon and a few friends (from YouTube)...
From last night's Golden Globe Awards:
Best Picture (Drama) Moonlight
Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) La La Land
Best Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land
Best Actress (Drama) Isabelle Huppert/Elle
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) Emma Stone/La La Land
Best Actor (Drama) Casey Affleck/Manchester
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy) Ryan Gosling/La La Land
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis/Fences
Best Supporting Actor: Aaron Taylor-Johnson/Nocturnal Animals
Best Screenplay: La La Land
Best Foreign Film: Elle
Best Animated Film: Zootopia
Best Score: La La Land
Best Song: City of Stars/La La Land
La La Land set a new Golden Globes record winning seven Globes as it won every award it was nominated for. Moonlight was named Best Drama and Casey Affleck's win gave Telluride films nine Globes out of the 14 possible categories.
Biggest surprises were Taylor-Johnson's win over Mahershala Ali. I still think Ali is likely the front runner for the Oscar in that category. The other surprises were Elle related with its win for Foreign Film and, though to a lesser extent, Isabelle Huppert's Best Actress Drama win. Of course, La La Land sweeping in the seven categories it was nominated in was a surprise. I predicted it to win six. I expected Moonlight or Manchester to win the Screenplay Globe.
So does winning the Globe make any difference Oscar-wise? Probably only at the margins. Oscar voting goes on until Friday and maybe those who haven't voted will take a look at some of the films that won last night. But maybe not. If there is a boost or the Globes act as any kind of harbinger that would obviously benefit La La Land.
I have linked Golden Globe analysis and reportage here:
As we approach the announcement of Oscar nominations in just over two weeks (voting closes Friday) I thought we'd better assess the "Below the Line" categories including an update to Film Editing and Cinematography that were last posted here on Oct. 27th as well as first looks at 11 other categories.
I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
TFF #43 films are in Bold. For Film Editing and Cinematography, the film's previous position follows in parentheses.
FILM EDITING
1) La La Land (1) 2) Moonlight (4) 3) Arrival (3)
4) Hell or High Water (NR)
5) Hacksaw Ridge (10)
6) Manchester by the Sea (NR)
7) Silence (2) 8) Sully (9)
9) Fences (6)
10) Rogue One (NR)
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) La La Land (1)
2) Silence (2) 3) Arrival (3) 4) Moonlight (NR)
5) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
6) Lion (NR)
7) Jackie (5)
8) Live By Night (6)
9) Hail, Caesar (8)
10) Cafe Society (10)
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1) Toni Erdmann
2) The Salesman
3) Land of Mine
4) A Man Called Ove
5) My Life as a Zucchini
6) Tanna
7) Paradise
8) It's Only the End of the World
9) The King's Choice
DOCUMENTARY
1) O.J.: Made in America
2) The 13th
3) I Am Not Your Negro
4) Weiner
5) Cameraperson
6) Fire at Sea
7) Gleason
8) Life, Animated 9) The Ivory Game 10) The Eagle Huntress
ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Zootopia
2) Kubo and the Two Strings
3) Moana
4) The Red Turtle
5) My Life as a Zucchini
6) Finding Dory
7) Miss Hoksauki
8) The Little Prince
9) Sing
10) Your Name
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) La La Land
2) Jackie
3) Silence
4) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 5) Arrival
6) Live By Night
7) Rules Don't Apply
8) Rogue One
9) Passengers
10) Hacksaw Ridge
ORIGINAL SCORE
1) La La Land
2) Lion 3) Moonlight
4) The BFG
5) Jackie
6) Rogue One
7) The Jungle Book
8) Florence Foster Jenkins
9) Hidden Figures
10) Passengers
ORIGINAL SONG
1) City of Stars/La La Land 2) Audition/La La Land
3) How Far I'll Go/Moana
4) Can't Stop the Felling/Trolls
5) Drive It Like You Stole It/Sing Street
6) I See Victory/Hidden Figures
7) Runnin'/Hidden Figures
8) We Know the Way/Moana
9) I'm Still Here/Miss Simone
10) Letter to the Free/The 13th
MAKEUP/HAIR
1) Deadpool
2) Star Trek Beyond
3) A Man Called Ove
4) Florence Foster Jenkins
5) The Dressmaker
6) Suicide Squad
7) Hail, Caesar
SOUND EDITING
1) Hacksaw Ridge
2) Rogue One 3) Arrival 4) Sully 5) La La Land
6) Deepwater Horizon
7) The Jungle Book
8) Patriot's Day
9) 13 Hours
10) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
SOUND MIXING
1) La La Land
2) Hacksaw Ridge
3) Rogue One 4) Arrival
5) The Jungle Book
1) The Jungle Book
2) Rogue One
3) Doctor Strange 4) Arrival
5) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
6) Passengers
7) Captain America: Civil War
8) The BFG
9) Kubo and the Two Strings
10) Deepwater Horizon
COSTUMES
1) Jackie 2) La La Land
3) Florence Foster Jenkins
4) Fantastic Beasts
5) Silence
6) Love and Friendship
7) Allied
8) Live By Night
9) Rules Don't Apply
10) The Handmaiden
And the analysis...
If we combine these predictions with last week's Major Eight, here's what nomination morning looks like if The FAC is 100% accurate (which it won't be...think between 75%-80% accurate).
Telluride films:
La La Land will have 14 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score, Original Song-twice, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Costumes. Of these, sound editing appears to be the most tenuous of possibilities but the remainder seem very solid. Should it get 14 nominations it would tie All About Eve and Titanic for the most nominated films ever.
Arrival would have a stunning and surprising nine nominations with a real shot at a tenth. Nominations would come for: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects. Amy Adams could also snag a Best Actress nomination (she was at #6 on The FAC for that category last week).
Moonlight should land eight nominations: Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography and Original Score.
Manchester by the Sea looks like it will land six nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay. It could also land a Film Editing nomination.
Sully looks to land a nomination for Actor and Sound Editing and is still in play for possible nominations for Picture, and Adapted Screenplay. Sully could also be in the mix for Film Editing and Sound Mixing.
Toni Erdmann looks solid for a Best Foreign Language Film nomination.
Other TFF #43 films that could be announced on Jan. 24: Fire at Sea, The Ivory Game and The Eagle Huntress could be nominated for Best Documentary and Aaron Eckhart has a very outside shot at Best Supporting Actor for Bleed for This.
If it all happens Telluride films from 2016 would grab 40 nominations. That, I believe, would be a record and way above the average of 27 per year that we have seen since 2006. Those films would have another possible 10 nominations.
Additionally, there could well be nominations in some of the short form categories.
Lastly, if you believe, and I do, that the position of a film in the nomination charts indicates how the professional predictors think a category will go on Oscar night itself, then La La Land would win a stunning nine Oscars: Picture, Director, Actress, Film Editing, Cinematography, Song (City of Stars), Score, Production Design and Sound Mixing. That would put it in heady company as only Ben Hur, Titanic, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (all with 11 wins) West Side Story (10) would have had more wins. La La would tie with The English Patient, Gigi and The Last Emperor. It would also be the most for a single film on Oscar night since LOTR:ROTK in 2003.
Moonlight would win two: Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay.
Manchester would win two: Actor and Adapted Screenplay.
Toni Erdmann would win Foreign Language.
That would have TFF films winning an amazing 14 of 21 feature categories.
The FAC will be updating categories in each post until Jan. 24th and the nominations announcement.
TELLURIDE FILMS DOMINATE THE NATIONAL SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS
The National Society of Film Critics weighed in on Saturday as they voted on their choices for the best in film in 2016. TFF #43 films were well represented.
Moonlight won four awards including Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor and Cinematography. It was also a runner-up for Screenplay and Supporting Actress.
Manchester by the Sea was named winner in three categories: Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Screenplay. It was a runner-up for Picture, Director.
Toni Erdmann won as Best Foreign Film.
Isabelle Huppert was named Best Actress for Things to Come and Elle.
That means that TFF#43 films won eight and a half of the nine categories.
Additionally, La La Land was a runner up for Best Picture, Director and Cinematography.
Toni Erdmann's Sandra Huller was a runner-up for Best Actress and Things to Come was a runner-up for Best Foreign Film.
Complete coverage of the NSFC winners is here from:
We are in the awards transition period. The critics have largely weighed in, Oscar nomination ballots are going out to the AMPAS membership (voting starts today) and the Golden Globes are being handed out on Sunday. It's time for the Guilds to make their mark. The Film Editors teed off this week with their Tuesday announcement of nominees. The Writer's Guild named their nominees yesterday and the Art Directors Guild announces today. The actors had already spoken with their SAG Award nominees announced on Dec. 14.
Coming up quickly are nominees from the Producers Guild on Jan. 10th and the Directors Guild two days later.
Here's what we learned this week. Among "Eddie" editing nominations were a good number of TFF #43 films. Drama nominees included: Arrival, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight. La La Land was included among the nominees in the comedy feature category.
The Writers Guild nominated four TFF #43 films for theur screenplays. Moonlight, La La Land and Manchester by the Sea were nominated in the Best Original Screenplay category and Arrival was nominated as the Best Adapted Screenplay. It should be noted that Moonlight has been deemed an adapted screenplay for Oscar consideration.
TELLURIDE FILMS DOMINATE ONLINE FILM CRITICS AWARDS
The Online Film Critics Society went for Telluride 2016 films in a big way as they announced their awards on Tuesday. TFF #43 films won a total of eight of the OFCS awards.
Barry Jenkins Moonlight was the big winner with the OFCS awarding it four prizes: Best Picture, Direction and Supporting wins for Maharshala Ali and Naomie Harris.
La La Land picked up two wins for film editing and cinematography.
Manchester by the Sea's Casey Aflleck was named Best Actor and Eric Heisserer won for Best Adapted Screenplay for Arrival.
Lionsgate tweeted out a new trailer for Damien Chazelle's La La Land on Tuesday as the film continues to do well in limited release and also expands into more and more theaters. This trailer uses the John Legend song Start a Fire as the aural backdrop for scenes from the film.
Take a look at it here from YouTube:
HBO DROPS BRIGHT LIGHTS TRAILER
In light of its decision to push the premiere of the documentary Bright Lights: Starring Debboe Reynolds and Carrie Fisher up to Jan. 7th, it shouldn't be a surprise that HBO released a trailer for the doc yesterday. Here it is from YouTube:
Coverage of the trailer and the doc's premiere is here from:
Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere has posted an evolving listing of films (80 at the time of this post) of films suspected or confirmed for 2017 release that he calls "high end releases". From that list I have culled ten that have a reasonable chance of playing Telluride plus an additional ten that I would personally put on my Telluride 2017 wish list.
On the "could play" list:
Downsizing/Alexander Payne
Roma/Alfonso Cuaron
Wonderstruck/Todd Haynes
The Sisters Brother/Jacques Audiard
Mektoub is Meltoub/Abdellatif Kechiche
Tully/Jason Reitman
Untitled Andrey Zvyaginstev Film
The Current War/Alfonso Gomez-Rejon
Happy Ending/Michael Haneke
You Were Never Really Here/Lynne Ramsay
Wish List:
Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
The Finest Hour/Joe Wright
Blade Runner 2049/Denis Villenueve
The Kidnapping of Edgardo Montara/Stephen Speilberg
Mother/Darren Aronofsky
Last Flag Flying/Richard Linklater
Chappaquiddick/John Curran
The Shape of Water/Guillermo Del Toro
Battle of the Sexes/Faris and Dayton
Molly's Game/Aaron Sorkin
