TFF #37/Oscar Clearinghouse and the DGA

Tom Hooper won the Director's Guild of America award late last night for Best Direction in 2010 for "The King's Speech." A whole host of Oscar watchers and critics are, again, dumbfounded this morning. Many thought that David Fincher would win for "The Social Network." Mmmmm....Nope.

The howling has been at a fever pitch for a week now. Beginning with the Producer's Guild Award to TKS last week and the "lead the pack" total of 12 nominations on Tuesday morning and culminating with last night's "surprise," The King's Speech" has been on a real roll...and it has the film "intelligentsia" up in arms..."How dare they?" has been the not-so-subtle refrain. Last night's DGA award, went the implicit narrative, will "restore some sanity" to the awards season. "Fincher gets the DGA," the thinking went, "because, surely, the directors 'get' the inherent superiority of "The Social Network." And that will also assure that the march of TKS to a Best Picture Oscar has been tempered and it's back to a real race...

And then, Boom!

A lot of people this week have been moaning that it's "Crash" beats "Brokeback" all over again...well...maybe.

But I'd submit the following:

1) I've been saying that TSN has been over-rated from the get go...I'd argue that it's overwhelming success with critics groups this past few months is at least as much a result of group-think and, really, a fear by some critics of an astonishing level of vitriol directed at any of them who dared to suggest that it might not actually be the year's best film.

2) As has been said in a lot of places, TSN certainly has a stronger appeal generationally to a younger demographic, and even older critics want to be regarded as hip...doesn't mean it's actually the best film or that it will win the Oscar...or should.

3) The "Crash/Brokeback" comparison stems, at least in part from the perception that the"Academy" is old and stodgy and scared of anything new or "controversial" and just doesn't "get it" which might explain why "Crash" won and probably does. But TSN "controversial"? Not really. And this week started with the PGA and ended with the DGA...NOT the Academy...I contend you can't use their results to paint that picture of the Academy..."the DGA doesn't get it?" Really???

4) Harvey Weinstein makes a salient point this week when he talks about "feeling" a movie...TSN celebrates its emotional distance...it's central to the film...how can anyone be surprised that that might not resonate with feeling, non-automatonic human beings?

5) Then there's this, maybe the majority of critics are just plain wrong...and make no mistake, I'm almost always on the side of critics...I live in a part of the world wherein the "celebration of film" is dwarfed by "what's on at the movies." Admittedly, I'm on the other side of the "generational" analysis mentioned above in point #2...and, further, I'm not even saying "The King's Speech" IS the year's Best Picture...I'd be inclined to vote for "True Grit." But, I have been pleased that the hubris of so many who had decided that it was all over months ago has been soundly shaken this past week.

"The King's Speech" opened (finally) in my town Friday night...of course, I saw it in September at Telluride...but I'm pleased to tell you that I'm going to go see it again tonight. I will be happy when it wins the Oscar for Best Picture in a month.

Oscar 83 and Telluride Film #37/The Oscar Clearinghouse

Telluride #37 with 32 Oscar nominations. The Clearinghouse gets 85 out 105 in 21 categories.

TFF #37 films with Oscar Noms:

THE KING'S SPEECH-12

127 HOURS-6

BLACK SWAN-5

BIUTIFUL-2

ANOTHER YEAR-1

THE WAY BACK-1

INSIDE JOB-1

INCENDIES-1

THE ILLUSIONIST-1

POSTER GIRL-1

GOD OF LOVE-1

THE KING'S SPEECH over-performed getting 12 nominations instead of the anticipated 9. True Grit hit its expected 10. BLACK SWAN (5 instead of the expected 7), 127 HOURS (6 instead of 7)and Inception (8 instead of 10) underperformed.

By category, here's how The Clearinghouse did.

Picture: Swan, Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS, 127, TSN, TS3, True and Winter's. Clearinghouse goes 10 for 10. One of 4 categories that we hit 100% .

Director: 4 of 5. Aronofsky, Russell, Hooper, Fincher and The Coens. Coens a small surprise. Nolan's exclusion a BIG SURPRISE. Though we had The Coens as the first likely suspects if one of the predicted five didn't make the cut. I just never thought it would be Nolan that got the short end.

Actress: 5 of 5. Bening, Kidman, Lawrence, Portman, Williams. No Manville, though...sad face.

Actor: 4 of 5. Bardem, Bridges, Eisenberg, Firth, and Franco. Bardem in and Duvall out...again, we had Bardem as a possible spoiler.

Supporting Actress: 4 0f 5. Adams, Bonham Carter, Leo, Steinfeld, Weaver. In the last spot-Weaver. We had it as a dead heat with Mila Kunis.

Supporting Actor: 4 of 5. Bale, Hawkes, Renner, Ruffalo, and Rush. Hawkes in for Garfield. Yes!

Adapted Screenplay: 5 of 5. 127, TSN, TS3, True, Winter's

Original Screenplay: 5 of 5. Another Year (yea!), Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS. A notoriously difficult pair of categories and The Clearinghouse got all 10 writing nominees. A little smug.

Animated: 3 of 3. Dragon, TS3 and THE ILLUSIONIST. Again...smug.

Foreign: 4 of 5. Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, Outside the Law. Law in and S. Africa's "Life, Above All" out.

Doc: 2 of 5. One of our two worst categories. Exit thru the Gift Shop, Gasland, INSIDE JOB, Resterpo, Waste Land. The Big stunner is the absence of "Waiting for Superman."

Art Direction: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Inception, TKS, True. Harry for "Shutter Island"..though not really a surprise.

Cinematography: 4 of 5. Swan, Inception, TKS, TSN, True. TKS for 127 Hours...yes, that's a surprise.

Costume: 4 of 5. Alice, I am Love, TKS, Tempest, True. I am Love in for Black Swan...yes, also a surprise. One of the biggest of the day.

Film Editing: 4 of 5. Swan, Fighter, TKS, 127, TSN. King's Speech in, Inception out. A stunner and one of four or five "signs" that The King's Speech is actually the favorite to win Best Picture now. More on the "signs" below.

Makeup: 1 of 3. Barney's Version, The Way Back, The Wolfman. Barney and way Back in Alice and True Grit out. The OC was not good here, but also not awful. We had Barney and The Way Back listed as possible spoilers.

Original Score: 4 of 5. Dragon, Inception, TKS, 127, TSN. 127 Hours in and Never Let Me Go out. We did have 127 Hours listed as a possible.

Original Song: 3 of 4. Country Strong, Tangled, 127, TS3. Weirdly only 4 nominees. Country Strong in and Burlesque and Superman out.

Sound Edit: 4 of 5. Inception, TS3, Tron, True, Unstoppable. Unstop in for 127. We had Unstop as a possible.

Sound Mix: 3 of 5. Inception, TKS, Salt, TSN, True. Salt and King's in for Swan and Tron. Salt is a stunner and another "sign" that TKS may be the frontrunner.

Visual FX: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Hereafter, Inception, Iron Man 2. Hereafter stuns Tron.

Signs that THE KING'S SPEECH might be your frontrunner...Most nominations, Nominated for Film Editing (almost always a necessity for a film to win Best Picture is an accompanying nomination in Editing), Cinematography and SOUND MIXING??? Really????

Conventional (quick) wisdom is that The King's Speech wins Best Picture and several others and The Social Network's Fincher wins director.

Coming soon to the OC...we handicap the field of nominees for your Oscar winners.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #7 Re-Post. Telluride Film and the 83rd Academy Awards

Because of some issues I have decided to re-post the Clearinghouse from this morning.

It's been four and a half months since the Telluride Film Festival concluded and after the long awards season march the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Here is the latest compilation of Oscar prognosticator's wisdom with our focus on the films that played as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2010. Categories have been limited to the appropriate number of nominees and three possible spoilers. TFF #37 films listed in CAPS AND BOLD.

Information collated from: Rope of Silicon, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Film Misery, The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, The Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

Best Picture: 8 films seem like locks: THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception and True Grit. 127 HOURS has actually solidified its chances in the last couple of weeks making it a probable nominee. It looks like that the last spot is between The Town and Winter's Bone with Bone having the inside track. The only other films with a prayer of cracking the Ten Nominees are Blue Valentine and ANOTHER YEAR, but it's the slimmest of chances.
If I had a ballot: See my top ten below. Suffice it to say (as I have been) that "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," and "The Kids Are All Right" are over-rated.

Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network and David O. Russell/The Fighter appear to be locks with TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN and Christopher Nolan/Inception looking very much like the other three nominees. If there is a surprise it would be (In order of likelihood) The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS or MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.
If I had a ballot: Coens in and Russell OR Fincher out.

Best Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN and Annette Bening/The Kids Are All Right have been locks for months. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone appears to have moved into that status as of the last two weeks. The other two spots look to go Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine. Three women who could intrude (in order of their chances) are: LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right or a late charging Hilary Swank/Conviction.
If I had a ballot: Don't know that I'd do much different here...maybe move Manville to supporting, but that category is already filled with great work.

Best Actor: Locks: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS. Very Likely the other three are: Robert Duvall/Get Low, Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network. Realistically, if a surprise occurs it would be Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL or Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.
If I had a ballot: Eisenberg out for Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

Supporting Actress: (Still the most intriguing category) Two locks are Melissa Leo/The Fighter and HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH. Near locks are Amy Adams/The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit (Steinfeld would be a lock, but she's getting shaded into the Best Actress category by a couple of Oscar predictors...Hmmmm). And the last spot is an arm wrestling match between Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom and MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN (my bet is on Kunis). Only two other women might have a shot at a nomination: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham and Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole.
If I had a ballot: I'm OK here if Kunis gets in.

Supporting Actor: Three men seem to have nominations assured. They are Christian Bale/The Fighter, GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH and Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right. The last two spots look to be comfortably in the hands of Andrew Garfield/The Social Network and Jeremy Renner/The Town. Those that might sneak in are: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction or Matt Damon/True Grit.
If I had a ballot: Hawkes in for Renner, Ruffalo or Garfield. And I would add that I'd be voting for both Ed Harris and Colin Farrell from THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter's Bone. The other two nominees would appear to be Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and DANNY BOYLE & SIMON BEAUFOY/127 HOURS. The three most likely spoilers are: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard/The Town. David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole and Roman Polanski & Robert Harris/The Ghost Writer.
If I had a ballot: Let this category stand.

Original Screenplay: Locks are: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, Christopher Nolan/Inception and Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right. Also likely nominees are: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter and MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR. Three which could surprise are: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curits & Cami Delavigne/Blue Valentine, MARK HEYMAN, ANDRES HEINZ & JOHN J. MC LAUGHLIN/BLACK SWAN, or Chris Provenzano & C. Gaby Mitchell/Get Low. Personally, I think Black Swan gets in instead of The Fighter and if I had a ballot I would certainly vote it in over "The Kids Are All Right."

Animated Film: Locks: Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. Probable: THE ILLUSIONIST. Possible spoilers: Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind. (Parenthetical comment: What a switch in the last 2 weeks as "The Illusionist" has surged ahead of "Tangled" to look like the third nominee. 14 days ago, "Tangled" looked like a cinch.)

Foreign Film: Locks: Nada. Probable: INCENDIES/CANADA, BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark, Life, Above All/South Africa and Dogtooth/Greece. Possible spoilers...any of the other 4 films still alive after the Academy cut the foreign list down to 9. (from Japan, Sweden, Spain and Algeria). The stunner was the exclusion of France's "OF GODS AND MEN."
Documentary: Only Lock: INSIDE JOB. Other probable nominees: Waiting for Superman, The Tillman Story, Resterpo and Client 9. Possible spoilers: The Waste Land, Exit Through the Gift Shop and The Lottery.

Film Editing: Locks: Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter. Likely: BLACK SWAN and 127 HOURS. Could Slide in: THE KING'S SPEECH, Shutter Island, True Grit.

Cinematography: Locks: Inception and True Grit. Likely: BLACK SWAN, The Social Network and 127 HOURS. Spoilers: Shutter Island, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE KING'S SPEECH.

Art Direction: Locks: Alice in Wonderland, Inception and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: Shutter Island and True Grit. Possible spoilers: Tron:Legacy and Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE WAY BACK.

Original Score: Locks: Inception is the only lock in this category. Probable nominees are: The Social Network, How to Train Your Dragon, THE KING'S SPEECH and NEVER LET ME GO. Possible spoilers: 127 HOURS, The Ghost Writer and True Grit.

Original Song: Locks: "I See the Light"/Tangled, "Shine"/Waiting for Superman, "We Belong Together"/Toy Story 3, and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"/Burlesque. The other likely nominee is "IF I RISE"/127 HOURS. Possible spoilers: "Coming Home"/Country Strong, "Despicable Me"/Despicable Me or "CHASON ILLUSIONIST"/THE ILLUSIONIST.

Costuming: Locks: Alice in Wonderland and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Tempest. Spoilers: Burlesque, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Made in Dagenham.

Sound Editing: Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: 127 HOURS, Tron:Legacy, True Grit and Toy Story 3. Potential spoilers: How to Train Your Dragon, Iron Man 2 or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing: Again, Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Social Network and Tron:Legacy. Potential surprises: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2 or Toy Story 3.

Makeup (3 noms only): Locks: Alice in Wonderland and The Wolfman. Other likely nominee: True Grit. Spoilers: THE WAY BACK, Jonah Hex, Barney's Version.

Visual Effects: Locks: Inception and Tron:Legacy. Likely nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and Iron Man 2. Potential spoilers: Scott Pilgrim or Hereafter.

And, of course, there will be nominations for short form live action, animation and documentary.

The Breakdown: If the Clearinghouse nails it Telluride #37 films earn 30 nominations with 11 more potentially in the mix as spoilers.

The most nominated film(s) will be (according to The Clearinghouse): True Grit and Inception with 10 each (Grit is in play in four other categories and so could end up being the most nominated on its own). The rest of the multiple nominees look like this (with additional possible nominations in parenthesis):
10 nominations: True Grit (4), Inception (0)
9 nominations: THE KING'S SPEECH (2), The Social Network (0)
8 nominations: BLACK SWAN (2)
7 nominations: 127 HOURS (2), The Fighter (1)
4 nominations: The Kids Are All Right (1), Toy Story 3 (1), Alice in Wonderland (0)

Other TFF #37 films earning nominations: ANOTHER YEAR-1, BIUTIFUL-1, INCENDIES-1, NEVER LET ME GO-1, THE ILLUSIONIST-1, INSIDE JOB-1.

And finally, my top ten films for 2010...if I was voting, this would be my Best Picture ballot:
10) The Fighter
9) THE ILLUSIONIST
8) THE WAY BACK
7) Shutter Island
6) 127 HOURS
5) ANOTHER YEAR
4) BLACK SWAN
3) Inception
2) THE KING'S SPEECH
1) True Grit

Back tomorrow with the breakdown and analysis of what the nominations have been....

Telluride Film and The PGA/The Oscar Clearinghouse

PRODUCER'S GUILD PRODUCES A STUNNER!!!

Last night the Producers Guild of America awarded its awards for motion picture achievement and threw a big monkey wrench into the stately march of "The Social Network" to Oscar glory as the producers named producers Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin of "THE KING'S SPEECH" the winner of its "Producer of the Year" award.

This morning all of the Oscar handicappers are abuzz with whether or to what extent this changes the race. Personally, I don't know if this portends the downfall of "The Social Network" (hope so, because I've been saying for months that it has been hugely over-rated), but I do know that it just made the next month a whole lot more interesting and that a race that many Oscar prognosticator's had asserted was done...isn't.

Also winning last night were "Toy Story 3" as animated film and "Waiting for Superman" as documentary.

Tomorrow The Oscar Clearinghouse will be up with its last evaluation of the Oscar race before the nominations are announced on Tuesday morning. Tuesday we'll post the breakdown of nominees and assess Telluride #37's impact on this year's Oscar race.

Stay tuned. This just got a whole lot more fun.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #7 (Telluride Film)- FINAL Pre-Nomination Edition

It's been four and a half months since the Telluride Film Festival concluded and after the long awards season march the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Here is the latest compilation of Oscar prognosticator's wisdom with our focus on the films that played as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2010. Categories have been limited to the appropriate number of nominees and three possible spoilers. TFF #37 films listed in CAPS AND BOLD.

Information collated from: Rope of Silicon, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Film Misery, The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, The Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

Best Picture: 8 films seem like locks: THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception and True Grit. 127 HOURS has actually solidified its chances in the last couple of weeks making it a probable nominee. It looks like that the last spot is between The Town and Winter's Bone with Bone having the inside track. The only other films with a prayer of cracking the Ten Nominees are Blue Valentine and ANOTHER YEAR, but it's the slimmest of chances.

If I had a ballot: See my top ten below. Suffice it to say (as I have been) that "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," and "The Kids Are All Right" are over-rated.

Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network and David O. Russell/The Fighter appear to be locks with TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN and Christopher Nolan/Inception looking very much like the other three nominees. If there is a surprise it would be (In order of likelihood) The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS or MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.

If I had a ballot: Coens in and Russell OR Fincher out.

Best Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN and Annette Bening/The Kids Are All Right have been locks for months. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone appears to have moved into that status as of the last two weeks. The other two spots look to go Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine. Three women who could intrude (in order of their chances) are: LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right or a late charging Hilary Swank/Conviction.

If I had a ballot: Don't know that I'd do much different here...maybe move Manville to supporting, but that category is already filled with great work.

Best Actor: Locks: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS. Very Likely the other three are: Robert Duvall/Get Low, Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network. Realistically, if a surprise occurs it would be Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL or Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.

If I had a ballot: Eisenberg out for Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

Supporting Actress: (Still the most intriguing category) Two locks are Melissa Leo/The Fighter and HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH. Near locks are Amy Adams/The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit (Steinfeld would be a lock, but she's getting shaded into the Best Actress category by a couple of Oscar predictors...Hmmmm). And the last spot is an arm wrestling match between Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom and MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN (my bet is on Kunis). Only two other women might have a shot at a nomination: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham and Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole.

If I had a ballot: I'm OK here if Kunis gets in.

Supporting Actor: Three men seem to have nominations assured. They are Christian Bale/The Fighter, GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH and Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right. The last two spots look to be comfortably in the hands of Andrew Garfield/The Social Network and Jeremy Renner/The Town. Those that might sneak in are: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction or Matt Damon/True Grit.

If I had a ballot: Hawkes in for Renner, Ruffalo or Garfield. And I would add that I'd be voting for both Ed Harris and Colin Farrell from THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter's Bone. The other two nominees would appear to be Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and DANNY BOYLE & SIMON BEAUFOY/127 HOURS. The three most likely spoilers are: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard/The Town. David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole and Roman Polanski & Robert Harris/The Ghost Writer.

If I had a ballot: Let this category stand.

Original Screenplay: Locks are: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, Christopher Nolan/Inception and Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right. Also likely nominees are: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter and MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR. Three which could surprise are: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curits & Cami Delavigne/Blue Valentine, MARK HEYMAN, ANDRES HEINZ & JOHN J. MC LAUGHLIN/BLACK SWAN, or Chris Provenzano & C. Gaby Mitchell/Get Low. Personally, I think Black Swan gets in instead of The Fighter and if I had a ballot I would certainly vote it in over "The Kids Are All Right."

Animated Film: Locks: Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. Probable: THE ILLUSIONIST. Possible spoilers: Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind. (Parenthetical comment: What a switch in the last 2 weeks as "The Illusionist" has surged ahead of "Tangled" to look like the third nominee. 14 days ago, "Tangled" looked like a cinch.)

Foreign Film: Locks: Nada. Probable: INCENDIES/CANADA, BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark, Life, Above All/South Africa and Dogtooth/Greece. Possible spoilers...any of the other 4 films still alive after the Academy cut the foreign list down to 9. (from Japan, Sweden, Spain and Algeria). The stunner was the exclusion of France's "OF GODS AND MEN."

Documentary: Only Lock: INSIDE JOB. Other probable nominees: Waiting for Superman, The Tillman Story, Resterpo and Client 9. Possible spoilers: The Waste Land, Exit Through the Gift Shop and The Lottery.

Film Editing: Locks: Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter. Likely: BLACK SWAN and 127 HOURS. Could Slide in: THE KING'S SPEECH, Shutter Island, True Grit.

Cinematography: Locks: Inception and True Grit. Likely: BLACK SWAN, The Social Network and 127 HOURS. Spoilers: Shutter Island, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE KING'S SPEECH.

Art Direction: Locks: Alice in Wonderland, Inception and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: Shutter Island and True Grit. Possible spoilers: Tron:Legacy and Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE WAY BACK.

Original Score: Locks: Inception is the only lock in this category. Probable nominees are: The Social Network, How to Train Your Dragon, THE KING'S SPEECH and NEVER LET ME GO. Possible spoilers: 127 HOURS, The Ghost Writer and True Grit.

Original Song: Locks: "I See the Light"/Tangled, "Shine"/Waiting for Superman, "We Belong Together"/Toy Story 3, and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"/Burlesque. The other likely nominee is "IF I RISE"/127 HOURS. Possible spoilers: "Coming Home"/Country Strong, "Despicable Me"/Despicable Me or "CHASON ILLUSIONIST"/THE ILLUSIONIST.

Costuming: Locks: Alice in Wonderland and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Tempest. Spoilers: Burlesque, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Made in Dagenham.

Sound Editing: Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: 127 HOURS, Tron:Legacy, True Grit and Toy Story 3. Potential spoilers: How to Train Your Dragon, Iron Man 2 or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing: Again, Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Social Network and Tron:Legacy. Potential surprises: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2 or Toy Story 3.

Makeup (3 noms only): Locks: Alice in Wonderland and The Wolfman. Other likely nominee: True Grit. Spoilers: THE WAY BACK, Jonah Hex, Barney's Version.

Visual Effects: Locks: Inception and Tron:Legacy. Likely nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and Iron Man 2. Potential spoilers: Scott Pilgrim or Hereafter.

And, of course, there will be nominations for short form live action, animation and documentary.

The Breakdown: If the Clearinghouse nails it Telluride #37 films earn 30 nominations with 11 more potentially in the mix as spoilers.

The most nominated film(s) will be (according to The Clearinghouse): True Grit and Inception with 10 each (Grit is in play in four other categories and so could end up being the most nominated on its own). The rest of the multiple nominees look like this (with additional possible nominations in parenthesis):

10 nominations: True Grit (4), Inception (0)

9 nominations: THE KING'S SPEECH (2), The Social Network (0)

8 nominations: BLACK SWAN (2)

7 nominations: 127 HOURS (2), The Fighter (1)

4 nominations: The Kids Are All Right (1), Toy Story 3 (1), Alice in Wonderland (0)

Other TFF #37 films earning nominations: ANOTHER YEAR-1, BIUTIFUL-1, INCENDIES-1, NEVER LET ME GO-1, THE ILLUSIONIST-1, INSIDE JOB-1.

And finally, my top ten films for 2010...if I was voting, this would be my Best Picture ballot:

10) The Fighter

9) THE ILLUSIONIST

8) THE WAY BACK

7) Shutter Island

6) 127 HOURS

5) ANOTHER YEAR

4) BLACK SWAN

3) Inception

2) THE KING'S SPEECH

1) True Grit

Back tomorrow with the breakdown and analysis of what the nominations have been....

Nominations are Coming! Telluride Film and The Oscar Clearinghouse

Will Geoffrey Rush (seen here outside the Chuck Jones Theater at 2010's Telluride Film Festival) wake up Tuesday morning to an Oscar nomination? The signs say...Yes!

Coming Monday on Michael's Telluride Film Blog...final Oscar nomination predictions from The Oscar Clearinghouse. Will TFF#37 films earn 30 or more noms? We find out Tuesday morning. The announcement is scheduled to take place at 8:30 am Eastern, 7:30 am Central...5:30 am on the west coast.

Telluride Film #37 and Foreign Films/The Oscar Clearinghouse

The Academy has announced its short list of 9 foreign films that are still in contention for the final five nominations that will be announced on Jan. 25.

Here are the nine (courtesy of Incontention.com) with TFF #37 films in Bold and Large:

Algeria (“Outside the Law”)
Canada (“Incendies”)
Denmark (“In a Better World”)
Greece (“Dogtooth”)
Japan (“Confessions”)
Mexico (“Biutiful”)
South Africa (“Life Above All”)
Spain (“Even the Rain”)
Sweden (“Simple Simon”)

A real surprise among Oscar predictors this morning was the absence of France's "of Gods and Men" which also played as part of this year's festival.

Brits, Telluride Film #37 and The OC

The British version of the Academy (BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM AND TELEVISION ARTS or BAFTA) nominations were announced early this morning. TFF #37 was strongly represented. Here are their nominations with Telluride films in Bold and Large

(Thanks to Incontention.com)

Best Film: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “The Social Network” “True Grit”

Best British Film: “Another Year” “Four Lions” “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham” “127 Hours”

Best Director: Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan” Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech” Danny Boyle, “127 Hours” David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor: Javier Bardem, “Biutiful” Jeff Bridges, “True Grit” Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network” Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech” James Franco, “127 Hours”

Best Actress: Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right” Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right” Natalie Portman, “Black Swan” Noomi Rapace, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”

Best Supporting Actor: Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network” Christian Bale, “The Fighter” Pete Postlethwaite, “The Town” Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech” Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “The Fighter” Barbara Hershey, “Black Swan” Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech” Lesley Manville, “Another Year” Miranda Richardson, “Made In Dagenham”

Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” “127 Hours” “The Social Network” “Toy Story 3″ “True Grit”

Best Original Screenplay: “Black Swan” “The Fighter” “Inception” “The Kids Are All Right” “The King’s Speech”

Best Foreign Language Film: “Biutiful” “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” “I Am Love” “Of Gods and Men” “The Secret In Their Eyes”

Best Animated Film: “Despicable Me” “How To Train Your Dragon” “Toy Story 3″

Best Cinematography: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “True Grit”

Best Production Design: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “True Grit”

Best Costume Design: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham” “True Grit”

Best Editing: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “The Social Network”

Best Make Up & Hair: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1″ “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham”

Best Original Music: “Alice In Wonderland” “How To Train Your Dragon” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours”

Best Sound: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “True Grit”

Best Special Visual Effects: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1″ “Inception” “Toy Story 3″

Rising Star Award: Gemma Arterton Andrew Garfield Tom Hardy Aaron Johnson Emma Stone

Carl Foreman Award: (best debut by a British writer, director or producer)Clio Barnard, “The Arbor” Banksy and Jaime D’Cruz, “Exit Through the Gift Shop” Chris Morris, “Four Lions” Gareth Edwards, “Monsters” Nick Whitfield, “Skeletons”

The Breakdown:

THE KING'S SPEECH-14

BLACK SWAN-12

Inception-9

127 HOURS and True Grit-8

The Social Network-6

Kids Are All Right and Made in Dagenham-4

The Fighter and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo-3

ANOTHER YEAR and BIUTIFUL-2

OF GODS AND MEN-1

Telluride rakes 39 BAFTA nominations.

Comment: Maybe I am an anglophile, because this seems a lot more accurate to me than the conventional wisdom here in the States concerning the likely dominance of The Social Network.

A couple of interesting notes...Lesley Manville (Another Year) is nominated in Supporting Actress...which is where she should be instead of lead, which is where Oscar prognosticators have been putting her. Similarly, Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) is nominated as a Lead rather than Supporting which is also opposite of where she's being listed here in the US of A.

Barbara Hershey gets a BAFTA Supporting nomination for "Black Swan" instead of Mila Kunis who has had the majority of Oscar buzz in this country.

"Tamara Drewe's" Gemma Arterton and "Never Let Me Go's" Andrew Garfield are nominated as "Rising Stars."

The BAFTA Awards will be revealed Feb. 13.

Telluride Film and The Golden Globes/TFF #37 and The OC

Colin Firth and Natalie Portman win Golden Globes...Oscars in their immediate future?

A great night for "The Social Network" as it won 4 awards, Drama Film, Director, Screenplay and Score.

TFF #37 participants won 3 Globes...Colin Firth/Best Actor-Drama for "The King's Speech," Natalie Portman/Best Actress-Drama for "Black Swan" and "Carlos" for Best TV Movie/Mini-Series. Telluride constant Laura Linney won a Globe for Best Actress in a TV Comedy for "The Big C." TFF #37 film "Biutiful" was upset in the Foreign Film category by Denmark's "In a Better World" in one of the few surprises of the evening.

Full film winners listed here from IndieWire.com

Best Motion Picture - Drama“The Social Network” - Columbia Pictures; Sony Pictures Releasing
Best Motion Picture - Comedy Or Musical- The Kids Are All Right” - Antidote Films, Mandalay Vision, Gilbert Films; Focus Features
Best Director - Motion Picture-David Fincher (TFF #35 Honoree) – “The Social Network”
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama-Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama- Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Comedy or Musical- Annette Bening – “The Kids Are All Right”
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy Or Musical- Paul Giamatti – “Barney’s Version”
Best Performance by an Actress In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture- Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actor-Christian Bale for “The Fighter”
Best Foreign Language Film-“In A Better World” (Denmark) (Hævnen) Zentropa Entertainment; Sony Pictures Classics
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture-Aaron Sorkin - “The Social Network”
Best Original Score - Motion Picture-Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross - “The Social Network”
Best Animated Feature Film“Toy Story 3” - Disney * Pixar; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Best Original Picture - Motion Picture “You Haven’t Seen The Last Of Me” from “Burlesque” - Music & Lyrics By: Diane Warren

Colin Firth wins Golden Globe as Drama Actor for King's Speech. TFF #37 third Globe of the night.

Natalie Portman wins Drama Actress Golden Globe for Black Swan. 2nd TFF#37 win of the night.

Telluride fixture Laura Linney wins TV Comedy Best Actress.

First TFF#37 Golden Globe is for "Carlos" for mini-series.

Telluride Film Festival #37/The OC and the BFCA

Best Acting hopeful Colin Firth at this year's Telluride Film Festival

The Broadcast Film Critics/Critics Choice Movie Awards last night continued to anoint "The Social Network" as the consensus film of the year. The results (from Incontention.com and Indie Wire.com) with TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD:

Picture: The Social Network

Director: David Fincher/The Social Network

Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN

Actor: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH

Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo/The Fighter

Supporting Actor: Christian Bale/The Fighter

Young Actor/Actress: Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit

Ensemble: The Fighter

Original Screenplay: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH

Adapted Screenplay:Aaron Sorkin/ The Social Network

Animated Feature: Toy Story 3

Best Action Movie: Inception

Best Comedy: Easy A

Foreign: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Documentary: Waiting for Superman

Art Direction: Inception

Cinematography: Inception

Film Editing: Inception

Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland

Makeup: Alice in Wonderland

Visual Effects: Inception

Sound: Inception

Best Song: IF I RISE/127 HOURS

Best Score: The Social Network

Multiple Winners: Inception-6, The Social Network-4, The Fighter-3, THE KING'S SPEECH-2, Alice in Wonderland-2

TFF #37-4 total awards. Now on to the Golden Globes tomorrow night.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #6- A Fortnight 'til Nominations

Two weeks until the Oscar nominations are announced and here is the state of the race via The Oscar Clearinghouse with data compiled from: Scott Feinberg, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, Film Misery, InContention.com, Gurus of Gold from the LA Times, Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD

Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) Inception, 5) BLACK SWAN, 6) True Grit, 7) Toy Story 3, 8) The Kids Are All Right, 9) 127 HOURS, 10) The Town

Others: Winter's Bone, ANOTHER YEAR, Shutter Island, THE WAY BACK, The Ghost Writer

Hot: True Grit, Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer

Not: Toy Story 3, Rabbit Hole

Thought: TSN actually opens up its lead by a minute fraction on TKS. Meanwhile, 127 Hours, The Town and Winter's Bone are in a dead heat for the last 2 nominations.

Direction: 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception 5) David O. Russell/The Fighter

Others: The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right

Hot: Zip

Not: Boyle

Thought: Fincher has a perfect score. Coens for Russell would be my guess for how the actual nominations shake out at this point.

Actress: 1) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 2) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR

Others: Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Hilary Swank/Conviction, Julianne Moore/Kids, Halle Berry/Frankie & Alice, Tilda Swinton/I Am Love, Naoomi Rapace/Girl Who Played with Fire

Hot: Rapace

Not: Zip

Thought: Portman is one point off of a perfect score and has edged Bening to be the frontrunner for now. Inside the numbers, I think there's still a good possibility that Williams edges Manville for the 5th spot. Also, an interesting note, this was the first time this season that I saw one of the prognosticators put True Grit's Hailee Steinfeld in this race rather than Supporting Actress...hmmm.

Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network, 4) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 5) Robert Duvall/Get Low

Others: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island

Hot: Zip

Not: Zip

Thought: An incredibly stable category. Firth racks up a perfect score. He plus Franco and Eisenberg appear locks for nominations..then it's a free for all between Bridges, Duvall, Gosling and Wahlberg for the last two spots.

Supporting Actress: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, 3) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 4) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Knigdom

Others: MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN

Hot: Steinfeld

Not: Zip

Thought: 6 women for 5 spots...Inside the numbers, Kunis has been gaining ground. Weist has probably stopped being a realistic possibility.

Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Jeremy Renner/The Town, 5) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network

Others: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Matt Damon/True Grit, Michael Douglas/Wall Street, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK

Hot: Damon

Not: Harris, Bill Murray

Thought: Bale has a perfect score. Hawkes and Rockwell are still a part of the conversation, but Damon, Douglas and Harris don't really stand a chance of a nomination.

Original Screenplay: 1) DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Cholodenko & Blumberg/Kids Are All right, 3) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 4) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 5) Silver & Tamasy/The Fighter

Others: HEINZ/HEYMAN/BLACK SWAN, Cianfrance, Curtis & DeLavigne/Blue Valentine, Provenzano & Mitchell/Get Low, Sofia Coppola/Somewhere, William Ivory/Made in Dagenham

Hot: Zip

Not: Zip

Thought: King's is one point off a perfect score. King's and Kids are locks, I think...then...pick 'em. 3 spots for 5 scripts.

Adapted Screenplay: 1) Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, 2) Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, 3) Granik & Rosselini/Winter's Bone, 4) The Coens/True Grit, 5) BOYLE & BEAUFOY/127 HOURS

Others: Criag, Affleck & Stoddard/The Town, Roman Polanski/The Ghost Writer, David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole, Cowell & Davies/How to Train Your Dragon, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK

Hot: Polanski/Ghost Writer

Not: Zip

Thought: TSN has a perfect score. After that, maybe even more of a crapshoot than Original Screenplay with the next 6 scripts with a real shot at the 4 remaining spots.

The Breakdown (for the Big 8 categories):

Predicted Nominations:

6 nominations- THE KING'S SPEECH and The Fighter

5 nominations- The Social Network

4 nominations- True Grit, The Kids Are All Right

3 nominations- Inception, BLACK SWAN, 127 HOURS

2 nominations- Toy Story 3, The Town, Winter's Bone, ANOTHER YEAR

Collective Nominations and Possible Nominations:

7 combined- The Fighter

6 combined- THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Kids Are All Right

5 combined- The Social Network, Winter's Bone

4 combined- 127 HOURS, ANOTHER YEAR, Get Low

3 combined- Inception, The Town, THE WAY BACK, Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole

As of this post TFF #37 accounts for 14 nominations and 10 other possibles in the Big 8 categories.

Check out The Clearinghouse post from Jan. 7th to see where the race stand in the technical and foreign categories.

Cinematogrphy Guild and Telluride Film/News from the OC

The American Society of Cinematographers announced their 5 nominees for 2010 late yesterday afternoon. According to Incontention.com they are...

“Black Swan” (Matthew Libatique)

“Inception” (Wally Pfister)

“The King’s Speech” (Danny Cohen)

“The Social Network” (Jeff Cronenweth)

“True Grit” (Roger Deakins)

Maybe the surprise "in" here is "The King's Speech" while the surprise "out" would probably be "127 Hours" or "The Fighter." This Oscar is Roger Deakins to lose.

Two weeks until nomination morning and the Golden Globes are coming up Sunday...a new Oscar Clearinghouse for the Big 8 categories is coming in the next 24 hours.

Tellutide Film/The Oscar Clearinghouse and The Director's Guild

The DGA announced their 5 nominees for Outstanding Achievement this morning and they are (drumroll please!)

Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”

David O. Russell, “The Fighter”

Christopher Nolan, “Inception”

Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”

David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Left out: The Coen Brothers for "True Grit" and Danny Boyle for "127 Hours."

Come Oscar Nomination morning I think it's still possible for the Coens and Boyle to slip in and Aronofsky and Russell to be on the outs. But, realistically, this morning's announcement is a nice boost for Aronofsky and Russell...and probably hurts Boyle more than the Coens. I further suspect that Nolan, Fincher and Hooper are locks. We'll have an updated Clearinghouse for the Big 8 categories up this week.

Tellurdie Film Festival/The Oscar Clearinghouse-Tech and More

Less than three weeks until Oscar nominations are announced and here's a look at the trends in the Technical/Doc/Foreign/Animated categories....We'll forgo the Short Subject categories (Live, Animated, Doc)...TFF #37 in CAPS AND BOLD

ART DIRECTION: 1) Inception, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Alice in Wonderland, 4) Shutter Island, 5) True Grit

Players: Tron:Legacy, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

CINEMATOGRAPHY: 1) True Grit, 2) Inception, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) Shutter Island

Players: THE WAY BACK, The Social Network

Notes: Roger Deakins...please.

COSTUME: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Tempest, 4) True Grit, 5) Burlesque

Players: Get Low, Made in Dagenham

FILM EDITING: 1) The Social Network, 2) Inception, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) True Grit

Players: The Fighter

MAKEUP: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) The Wolfman, 3) BLACK SWAN

ORIGINAL SCORE: 1) Inception, 2) How to Train Your Dragon, 3) NEVER LET ME GO, 4) THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) True Grit

Players: The Ghost Writer

ORIGINAL SONG: 1) Tangled, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Waiting for Superman, 4) Burlesque, 5) 127 HOURS

Player: Country Strong

SOUND EDITING: 1) Inception, 2) 127 HOURS, 3) Tron:Legacy, 4) Toy Story 3, 5) How to Train Your Dragon

Players: Iran Man 2, Unstoppable

SOUND MIXING: 1) Inception, 2) True Grit, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Tron:Legacy, 5) Unstoppable

Players: Iron Man 2, BLACK SWAN, Toy Story 3

VISUAL EFFECTS: 1) Inception, 2) Tron:Legacy, 3) Iron Man 2, 4) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, 5) Alice in Wonderland

ANIMATED FEATURE: 1) Toy Story 3, 2) How to Train Your Dragon, 3) Tangled

Players: THE ILLUSIONIST, Despicable Me

DOCUMENTARY: 1) INSIDE JOB, 2) Waiting for Superman, 3) The Tillman Story, 4) Wasteland, 5) Restrepo

Players: Exit Through the Gift Shop, Gasland

FOREIGN FILM: 1) Outside the Law/Algeria, 2) OF GODS AND MEN/FRANCE, 3) INCENDIES/CANADA, 4) Life Above All/South Africa,5) Son of Babylon/Iraq

Players: BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark

Notes:

If the above were 100% accurate TFF #37 will have 30 nominations and 13 other possibles (including the Big 8 categories).

Breakdown by TFF #37:

The King's Speech and 127 Hours 9 noms and 0 possibles

Black Swan 6 noms and 4 possibles

Another Year 2 noms and 2 possible

Inside Job 1 nom

Never Let Me Go 1 nom

The Way Back 4 possibles

Biutiful 2 possibles

The Illusionist 1 possible

Foreign Films 2 noms (Of Gods and Men and Incendies) and 1 possible (Biutiful)

Th Clearinghouse says that the films with the most nominations would be (if the nominations were announced today and irrespective of TFF #37):

1) True Grit 10 (with another possible)

2) Inception 10

3) THE KING'S SPEECH 9

3) 127 HOURS 9

5) BLACK SWAN 6 (with 4 more possible)

6) The Social Network 6 (with another possible)

7) Toy Story 3 5 (with another possible)

8) The Fighter 4 (with 3 more possible)

9) The Kids Are All Right 4 (with 2 more possible)

10) Winter's Bone 3 (with 2 more possible)

Others with 4 or more possibles:

THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Get Low, Alice in Wonderland, Tron: Legacy, How to Train Your Dragon...Honorable Mention: Shutter Island and The Town.

Next Week...an updated Big 8 Categories.

Sources: InContention.com, Film Misery, The Awards Circuit

News from the OC-More Guilds

"127 Hours" gets a couple of nudges.

The Art Directors Guild had their say yesterday with 15 nominations in 3 categories. Three Telluride #37 films get nominated. Here they are (thanks to Incontention.com):

Period Film

“Get Low”

“The King’s Speech”

“Robin Hood”

“Shutter Island”

“True Grit”

Fantasy Film

“Alice in Wonderland”

“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader”

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I”

“Inception”

“TRON Legacy”

Contemporary Film

“Black Swan”

“The Fighter”

“127 Hours”

“The Social Network”

“The Town”

Also, USC announced its finalists for its Adapted Screenplay Award. Only "127 Hours" of the TFF #37 playlist made the cut.

“The Ghost Writer”Roman Polanski, screenwriter Robert Harris, author (novel, “The Ghost”)

“127 Hours”Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy, screenwriters Aron Ralston, author (novel, “Between a Rock and a Hard Place”)

“The Social Network”Aaron Sorkin, screenwriter Ben Mezrich, author (book, “The Accidental Billionaires: The Founding of Facebook, A Tale of Sex, Money, Genius and Betrayal”)

“True Grit”Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, screenwriters Charles Portis, author (novel, “True Grit”)

“Winter’s Bone”Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, screenwriters Daniel Woodrell, author (novel, “Winter’s Bone”)

News from the OC: Guilds

Helena Bonham Carter and Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"

The Producers Guild and The Writer's Guild announced their nominations today.

Producers nominated these 10 as Best Picture:

Darryl F. Zanuck Producer of the Year Award in Theatrical Motion Pictures

“Black Swan” (Scott Franklin, Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver)

“The Fighter” (David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg)

“Inception” (Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas)

“The Kids Are All Right” (Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray)

“The King’s Speech” (Iain Cunning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin)

“127 Hours” (Danny Boyle, Christian Colson)

“The Social Network” (Dana Brunetti, Ceán Chaffin, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin)

“The Town” (Basil Iwanyk, Graham King)

“Toy Story 3″ (Darla K. Anderson)

“True Grit” (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin)

Writer's Guild Nominees are:

Adapted Screenplay

“127 Hours”

“I Love You Phillip Morris”

“The Social Network”

“The Town”

“True Grit”

Original Screenplay

“Black Swan”

“The Fighter”

“Inception”

“The Kids Are All Right”

“Please Give”

Of course there were a number of scripts that were ineligible for consideration due to Writer's Guild requirements that they did not meet such as "The King's Speech," "Another Year," "Never Let Me Go," and "The Way Back" among others.

What to take from these guild noms? "The Town" and "127 Hours" are widely considered to be in serious competition with "Winter's Bone" for the 10th Best Picture Oscar nomination. Today's nominations would seem to give them (Town, 127) the edge with 8 spots seemingly solidly locked with 3 weeks to go before the announcement.

Art Directors Guild and USC Scripter nominations are expected tomorrow...we'll see what they tell us.