Indiewire's Cannes Wish List / Herzog on Gorbachev / More Country Music News

Welcome to Thursday...


INDIEWIRE'S CANNES WISH LIST

As we edge closer to the official announcement of the Cannes Film Festival lineup Indiewire has published its list of 50 films on their wish list for the 72nd edition of the French film affair.

Again, Scorsese's The Irishman and other Netflix titles are off the list and also likely off the Cannes list is James Gray's As Astra.

Among the 50 films that are on the Indiewire's hopefuls are these that I think seem Telluride-possible.  Most of the following titles have now become repeat mentions from previous Cannes' speculation pieces.  Alphabetically, those films are:

Ahmed (The Dardennes Brothers)
Ema (Pablo Larrain)
First Cow (Kelly Reichardt)
One Second (Zhang Yimou)
Radegund (Terrence Malick)
The Truth (Hirokazu Kore-eda)


The complete Indiewire list is here.


HERZOG ON GORBACHEV

Herzog at the Kremlin (via The Orchard and Indiewire)

Indiewire's Christian Blauvelt sat down with legendary filmmaker and Telluride "Esteemed Council of Advisors" member (and who has a TFF theater named for him) Werner Herzog last week to talk about his latest documentary film Meeting Gorbachev which premiered at TFF #45 last September.

Herzog's exploration of the former Russian/Soviet leader is scheduled for a May 3rd U.S. release from The Orchard.

The Indiewire interview with Herzog also includes an exclusive look at a trailer for the film.

You can find that interview here.


MORE COUNTRY MUSIC NEWS

The Tennessean reports that Ken Burns will donate a trove of the interviews that he and his crew have done for the upcoming PBS documentary Country Music to the Country Music Hall of Fame and Museum.

Burns is currently in the midst of promoting the 8 part 16 hour doc before it screens on PBS on  September 15th.

Burns past extensive connection to Telluride and his frequent presence at the festival with various projects leads me to think that there is a better than fair chance that at least some of the doc will bow at TFF #46 over the Labor Day weekend.

The Tennessean reports that Burns will be donating all of the recorded interviews and transcripts from over 40 artists.

The complete Tennessean article is linked here.


That will do for today.  I'll have more on Monday.

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I'm Back / Netflix and Cannes: The Breakup Continues / Malick at Cannes and Then... / Schiller Talks Telluride and More / Lucy in the Sky Teaser / Burn's Country Music / New Pic of Hanks as Rogers

Spring Break has concluded...

I'M BACK

After a ten day hiatus MTFB is back today after having spent Spring Break doing this and that.  Spent some of the break in NYC.  Saw Aaron Sorkin's adaptation of Harper Lee's To Kill a Mockingbird with Jeff Daniels.  It's nearly perfect.  Saw Bryan Cranston in Network...Cranston is phenomenal.  Did some other stuff.

It was good to step away for a few days, but I'm back now as we head our way to the announcement of the films that will play at Cannes which really does begin the Telluride speculation season on some earnest.   Here we go...


NETFLIX AND CANNES: THE BREAKUP CONTINUES

While I was away we found out that Netflix will again have zero films playing at the Cannes Film Fest in May.  The impasse that created that situation last year has not been resolved and as such, Netflix apparently will not be bringing any films to France in any of the programs.

That was reported in a  number pf places this past week including this from Variety.

In addition, as it turns out, the big fish in Netflix's barrel this season, Martin Scorsese's The Irishman reportedly wouldn't be ready anyway.  It seems that there is still far too much effects work to be done.  That according to Zack Sharf writing at Indiewire.

Sharf writes that a Venice premiere at this point seems the safest bet.  That would still seem to leave the door open for a screening at Telluride much in the way Netflix played Cuaron's Roma last year (and Searchlight did Shape of Water the year before).

My take is still some serious wariness.  Scorsese hasn't been at Telluride in decades.  I wouldn't be surprised if it played Venice and Venice alone or skipped fests all together. 

Still, Collider's Adam Chitwood suggests a run for the film through the Venice, Telluride, Toronto (maybe New York) gauntlet.


MALICK AT CANNES AND THEN...

And speaking of Cannes...there's a growing consensus that  Terrence Malick will return to Cannes in May with his latest film Radegund.  It's a film I have been stalking for quite some time mostly because it's Malick doing a film with a reportedly more traditionally narrative structure that tells the true story of an Austrian conscientious objector during World War II.

I'm hoping, that after a spate of films that haven't exactly been embraced (since Tree of Life) that this will be the path back to critical success for the auteur. 

Charles Barfield writing for The Playlist suggests that Cannes will screen the new film. That story is linked here.

Should that come to pass, the questions would be: does it play any other fests and which distributor picks it up?

I'll keep an eye on it.

SCHILLER TALKS TELLURIDE, FILM AND MORE?

Friend of the blog and multi-hyphenate Christopher Schiller was featured this week on The Weekend Take podcast with Shawn Schaffer.  Schiller runs down a number of topics including a love letter to the Telluride Film Festival.

You can find Schiller's guest stint and The Weekend Take podcast at iTunes at this link.



LUCY IN THE SKY TEASER


Here's the teaser from YouTube:

The Hollywood Reporter

First Showing

The Playlist

Indiewire




BURNS' COUNTRY MUSIC

The Asheville, NC  Citizen Times reports that Ken Burns is going to screen some moments of his new documentary on country music in Asheville next week (on April 2 on the UNC-Asheville campus).  It's yet another sign that, although the entire 16 hour doc may not be ready in its entirety, there's plenty of it to show to an audience.

This roll out in various parts in various places continues to make me think that a presentation of some of it over Labor Day weekend in T-ride  is a realistic possibility.

The Citizen Times article is linked here.



NEW PIC OF HANKS AS ROGERS

And to celebrate what would have been Fred Rogers 91st birthday, TriStar released a new photo from the set of A Beautiful Day in the neighborhood starring Tom Hanks as Rogers.

Here's the new photo:

The film is directed by Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) and is set for U.S. release on Nov. 22nd.

That's your "Spring Break Is Over Return Issue" of MTFB.  I'll have more on Thursday.


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A U.S. Trailer for Non-Fiction / A Bit More Thinking About Cannes / Out of Pocket

Welcome to Thursday...


A U.S. TRAILER FOR NON-FICTION

Last week Sundance Selects dropped a new U.S. trailer for Olivier Assayas' latest film which ran the festival gamut last fall debuting at Venice then playing Telluride, Toronto and New York.  The film is scheduled to open here in the states on May 3rd.

Non-Fiction stars Juliette Binoche and Guillaume Canet.


Here's the new trailer via YouTube:

I have linked a story about the U.S. trailer release from Jordan Raup writing at The Film Stage.  That link is here.

Non-Fiction's IMDb page is linked here.

Assayas is currently filming his next film Wasp Network.


 A BIT MORE THINKING ABOUT CANNES

Jordan Ruimy writing at his blog World of Reel recently shared a couple of thoughts about films that could make the 72nd Cannes Film Festival lineup.  Chief among them is his claim that multiple sources are suggesting that Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon a Time in Hollywood starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie will likely make the lineup and may well play in competition for the Palme d'Or and could also be the opening night film.

Ruimy also tosses in a couple of other titles that I have my eye on as potential Cannes/Telluride crossovers The Dardennes brothers' Ahmed chief among them.

I have linked Ruimy's reporting here.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's IMDb page is here.

Ahmed's IMDb page is here.


OUT OF POCKET

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  I'm going to be out of pocket for the next few days as I go on spring break.  MTFB will return in full force on Monday, Mar. 25th.


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The Cannes Speculation Begins / But Not This One? / And on a Related Note...Venice-Netflix? / Early Oscar Analysis

Welcome back for the weekend...Did you Spring Forward?  I sort of shambled forward...


THE CANNES SPECULATION BEGINS

With the Cannes Film Festival just a couple of months away, it's time to start thinking in a serious fashion what could play as part of their programs with an eye, then. to those films that could bow in France and then have their North American unveiling over Labor Day weekend in the Colorado Rockies.

To that end, you may have notice The Hollywood Reporter's analysis this week of 50 films that their authors say have a shot at making the 2019 Cannes lineup.

Casting an eye over that moderately extensive list of films, these are the titles that jump out at me as worth a glance as we look for films that could make the TFF #45 program (click on the title to go to its IMDb page):

Against All Enemies dir: Benedict Andrews

Ahmed dir: The Dardennes Brothers

The Truth dir: Hirokazu Koreeda

Ema dir. Pablo Larrain

Radegund dir. Terrence Malick (admittedly more a wish than a prophecy)

First Cow dir: Kelly Reichardt

The Laundromat dir. Stephen Soderbergh

 Of course, there are a number of others listed in the THR article that intrigue and could certainly pop up both in France and Telluride.  The complete THR article is linked here.


BUT NOT THIS ONE?

One film listed in the preceding THR linked story is Martin Scorsese's much anticipated Netflix backed gangster drama The Irishman.  Interestingly, within a day of its publication, ShowBiz411 reported that The Irishman will NOT be ready to make an appearance at Cannes.

Roger Friedman headlines his story from Thursday with "Confirmed: No Irishman at Cannes".  In the body of the story Friedman writes "The film is shot...but the special effects will take months."  Friedman also implies that The Irishman might eschew fall fests altogether which would certainly fit Scorsese's recent M.O.

The complete ShowBiz411 post is linked here.


AND ON A RELATED AND GAME CHANGING NOTE...VENICE/NETFLIX?

Eric Kohn wrote a piece this last week at Indiewire which explores where the Cannes/Netflix relationship is and may be headed.  In it he reports that the Venice International Film Festival may be following Cannes path in regards to screening of Netflix films as the battle over how various entities, Festivals and the Oscars particularly, deal with the films that are produced by the streaming giant.

Kohn reports that a recently signed law in Italy that would establish guidelines for theatrical distribution of films there that are similar to the laws in France which have been the central issue in the ongoing Netflix-Cannes confrontation.

Kohn writes, "The Lido may off limits to Netflix in the coming year".  Additionally, he speculates  that that turn of events could conceivably benefit Telluride (and Toronto) writing that it "could be very good" for both fests.

The full paragraph from Kohn is a s follows:

"Netflix doesn’t necessarily need a bump from the festival for its most anticipated films. “Roma” found plenty of acclaim at Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. The Lido may be off-limits to Netflix in the coming year, as Italy’s Minister of Culture Albert Bonisoli signed a law in November requiring theatrical windows in the country similar to the rule in France. But Telluride and Toronto, both of which declined comment for this story, continue to maintain close relationships with Netflix and remain tangible fall launchpads for awards-season hopefuls."

The complete Kohn story is linked here.



EARLY OSCAR ANALYSIS

Also from Indiewire this week is a peak at early Oscar speculation from their resident Oscar guru Anne Thompson.  The article focuses specifically on directors that she perceives might be on the Oscar short list in the months after Telluride comes to a close but still gives us some good fodder for thinking about films that might make their way to the San Juans.

On her list that might be worth our contemplation (and, as above, linked to their IMDb page):

Noah Baumbach' Untitled Project (starring Adam Driver)

Greta Gerwig's Little Women

Noah Hawley's Lucy in the Sky

Marielle Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Hirokazu Koreeda's The Truth (mentioned and linked above)

Dee Ree's The Last Thing He Wanted

Jay Roach's Fair and Balanced

Martin Scorsese's The Irishman (if it's ready and fall fests are even a part of its release strategy...see above)

Joe Wright's The Woman in the Window

Thompson's complete Indiewire story is linked here.


That's today's MTFB.  More on Thursday.


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Fair and Balanced Has a Date...and Some Interest? / Amazing Grace Trailer and Poster

Welcome to your first Thursday in March 2019...



FAIR AND BALANCED HAS A DATE...AND SOME INTEREST?

A number of outlets reported earlier this week that Lionsgate has dated Jay Roach's Fair and Balanced for release on Dec. 20th.  Fair and Balanced explores the world of Fox News and its former head Roger Ailes and the charges of sexual harassment that were raised by some of the women that worked there.

John Lithgow has been cast as Ailes with Charlize Theron plays Megan Kelly and Nicole Kidman plays Gretchen Carlson among an all star cast.

Of particular note here was a tweet from the Ioncinema account that suggested that the fall fests, including Telluride, are interested in the film.  Here's a shot of the tweet from Ioncinema:

But I also saw a couple of other mentions on social media that suggested that the film, with the Dec. 20th release date was more likely to skip all the fall fest circuit and go with the late 2019 release strategy a la Vice.

I have included a couple of articles here that provide some detail about the release date announcement.

Variety

Deadline



AMAZING GRACE TRAILER AND POSTER



The saga of Amazing Grace, the Aretha Franklin documentary that nearly twice played at TFF is coming close to a conclusion.  The film now has a trailer seen here from YouTube:

Additional we have a poster release as well:

Time.com also announced yesterday that they would be partnering with NEON  as a distribution partner.  The announcement says that the doc will have its theatrical release this spring.

Time's Amazing Grace story

That is linked here

Additional coverage is linked here from

Deadline

Entertainment Weekly



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Gone Like the Wind / Roma and the Oscars

Good Monday morning...


GONE LIKE THE WIND

I grabbed this photo of the festival website on Friday morning at about 1:45 Central time (11:45 Pacific)


Almost the classic movie title but more descriptive about what happened on Friday morning when passes went on sale for the 46th Telluride Film Festival (Aug. 30-Sept. 2).  Over the past few years the window for getting passes before the sale ran out of them had gotten smaller and smaller.

Hearsay suggested that passes were gone in a week in 2017 and that it took a mere two days last year.  I watched the website in real time on Friday after getting mine secured in a sweat inducing, gut wrenching, nerve stressing 10 minute window as soon as the sale went live.  and, by my estimation, all level of passes were gone in under three hours.  Acme passes were gone first, then the Festival, then the Festival level and finally the Cinephile pass.

Patron Passes were done in a separate sale that occurred in December and, though I wasn't tracking it, seemed to also happen very, very quickly.

So, I have to suspect that, again this year, many past pass holders may have been shut out and I wonder if the fest will consider changes in structures and policies between now and next year when passes go on sale.  I contemplated the same thing last year but am not aware that any changes were made for this year's sale.

One thing is certain, the festival has become insanely popular.  I was messaging a Telluride friend about this and that including the rapidity of the sellout and he suggested that the fest has gotten "too popular". 


ROMA AND THE OSCARS

Indiewire's Anne Thompson undertakes to deconstruct Roma's Best Picture loss to Green Book in the context of the film being under the wing of streaming giant Netflix in an article over this weekend.

That article is here.

Personally, I think that was one of many of the factors that people mentioned and my guess, and it's only a guess, is that it was more a perfect storm of factors:

1) People really liked Green Book

2) Yup...there's a bias against Netflix...witness the news that no less a light than Steven Spielberg appears to be spear-heading an effort to have the Academy change rules that would make Netflix change some of its practices if it wants to continue to compete for Oscars.

But don't discount these other factors...

3) The foreign language bias.  No foreign language film has ever won the big prize and "It's got its own category" goes some thinking.

4) The black and white factor...maybe not a large consideration, but I don't think you can dismiss it.

5) The style and tone.  It's slow (especially the first half) and contemplative and very, very personal. 

Maybe it was all about the top two reasons above but maybe there were other factors as well.



That's your MTFB for this Monday...more on Thursday.


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Awards Circuit's First Predix for Oscar 2020 / A Tease for The Irishman / Inarritu to Preside Over Cannes / Trial by Fire Acquired

Good post-Oscar Thursday...


AWARDS CIRCUIT'S FIRST PREDIX FOR OSCAR 2020

Clayton Davis is all over it as he and his website, Awards Circuit, are already up with, what I believe is, the first serious pass at predicting Oscar nominees for Best Picture for next year.

Davis has a really good record of sniffing out Oscar potential this early and as such, gives us some hints about films that might have the pedigree necessary to be considered as possible TFF #46 selections.

Davis runs down a fairly substantial list of films and ends the article with a "pre-season" top ten of possible Best Picture nominees.  Without giving away the entire list of ten films, here are those included that, at first blush, feel like they have the most Telluride prospects:

Marielle Heller's Mr. Rogers biopic starring Tom Hanks as Fred Rogers: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.

John Crowley's The Goldfinch based on the Pulitzer Prize winning book starring Nicole Kidman.

Kasi Lemmon's Harriet based on the life of Underground Railroad pioneer Harriet Tubman starring Cynthia Erivo.

And...just because I think Netflix might try to follow the path they used with Roma, Martin Scorsese's The Irishman (see below).  The story of a mob hitman who may have killed Jimmy Hoffa.  For Scorsese, the old gang came back together as the film stars Robert DeNiro, Harvey Keitel and Joe Pesci with the addition of Al Pacino.

Among the other films that Davis discusses that didn't make it to his initial top ten list are these which also seem to make some sense for TFF:

Greta Gerwig's Little Women
Joe Wright's The Woman in the Window
Hirokazu Koreeda's The Truth
Scott Cooper's Antlers
Bill Condon's The Good Liar

Additionally, Davis makes predictions for each of the other 23 categories.

The entire article is linked here.


A TEASE FOR THE IRISHMAN

Perhaps this is Martin Scorsese' Great White Whale.  It's reportedly in post-production and there are rumors that it could well be headed to Cannes (if Cannes and Netflix can reach some sort of arrangement) or maybe Venice.

As I mentioned above, I think we have to at least consider the chance that the film makes its way to Telluride so I'll continue to keep an eye on it.

Consequently, if you didn't notice earlier this week, The Irishman and Netflix dropped a teaser.  Here it is via YouTube:

I also linked some of the coverage the came out with the teaser's release from:

Indiewire

The Playlist

Trailer Track


INARRITU TO PRESIDE OVER CANNES

Speaking of Cannes...the prestigious film festival announced this week that four time Oscar winning director/writer Alejandro Inarritu will preside over this year's Palme d'Or jury.  Inarritu has, over the years, been a staple of the Cannes' lineup in various sections and with multiple films.

Inarritu has also been a frequent presence at Telluride both in the capacity as presenting one of his own films but also as a fan and supporter of his fellow amigos Guillermo Del Toro and Alfonso Cuaron.

Inarritu was first represented at Cannes in 2000 with his first feature Amores Perros.

Here's Variety's story about the announcement.


TRIAL BY FIRE IS ACQUIRED

Roadside Attractions has acquired TFF #45 entrant Trial by Fire from director Ed Zwick.  The film stars Laura Dern and Jack O'Connell and is based on an article from author David Grann.  Trial by Fire was one of two films at last year's fest that was based on material written by Grann.  The other was David Lowery's The Old Man and the Gun starring Robert Redford and Sissy Spacek.

Coverage of the acquisition and plans to release the film this spring are addressed in the following:

The Hollywood Reporter

Deadline

The Wrap



That's today's MTFB.  I'll another go at this on Monday.

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Oscar #91 in the Books: Telluride's Spell Is Broken / Oscar Odds and Ends / And Now We Turn the Page

Welcome back from Oscarland...

OSCAR #91 IN THE BOOKS: TELLURIDE'S SPELL IS BROKEN

Here are your winners from the 91st Academy Awards from Last Night:

Best Picture: Green Book)
Direction: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
Actress: Olivia Colman/The Favourite)
Actor: Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
Supporting Actress: Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Green Book
Original Screenplay: Green Book
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
Animated Feature: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
Documentary Feature: Free Solo
Foreign Language Film: Roma
Original Song: Shallow/A Star Is Born
Original Score: Black Panther
Cinematography: Roma
Film Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Production Design: Black Panther
Costumes: Black Panther
Makeup/Hair: Vice
Visual Effects: First Man
Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Animated Short: Bao
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence
Live Action Short: Skin


OSCAR ODDS AND ENDS

 
Telluride's streak of eight straight years of screening the eventual Best Picture winner ended last night with the win for Green Book.  It's the first non-TFF film to win since The Hurt Locker back in 2010.

TFF films did pick up six Oscars last night.  Roma had three: Direction, Foreign Language Film and Cinematography.  The Favourite's Olivia Colman won for Best Actress, Free Solo won Best Documentary and First Man won for Best Visual Effects.

Multiple Oscar winning films included:

Bohemian Rhapsody-4 Actor, Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Green Book-3 Picture, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay
Roma-3 Direction Foreign Language Film and Cinematography
Black Panther-3 Production Design, Costumes and Original Score

My personal prediction success rate was 19/24 or 79.2% .  I missed Picture, Actress, Film Editing, Production Design and Live Action Short.
 
I don't know that I would classify any of last night's awards as shockers.  Late wins by Colman and Green Book were mildly surprising but looking at the list I posted last Thursday, four of the five places where I missed, I had the actual winner listed as the "Could Be" candidate.

Why'd Green Book win?  I suspect a combination of factors mostly related to the baggage that Roma had going into the season: a foreign language film in black and white from Netflix.


AND NOW WE TURN THE PAGE

Though I have played around already with looking ahead to this year's potential TFF #46 lineup, now that this year's Oscar ceremony is in the books, it's time for this space to turn back to what was originally created to do.

Oscar's in the rear view and we turn our gaze ahead and aim toward Aug. 30th and the opening day of the 46th Telluride film Festival.


I'll have more for you on Thursday.


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FINAL Oscar Predictions / The Telluride Effect Part Two / Oscar Experts Final Predictions

Thursday before Oscar...


FINAL OSCAR #91 PREDICTIONS

Best Picture:Roma  (Could be: Green Book)
Direction: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma (Could be: Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman)
Actress: Glenn Close/The Wife (Could be: Olivia Colman/The Favourite)
Actor: Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody (Could be: Christian Bale/Vice)
Supporting Actress: Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk (Could be: Rachel Weisz/The Favourite OR Amy Adams/Vice)
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Green Book (Could be: Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Original Screenplay: Green Book (Could be: The Favourite)
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman (Could be: Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Animated Feature: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse (Could be: Incredibles 2)
Documentary Feature: Free Solo (Could be: RBG)
Foreign Language Film: Roma (Could be: Cold War)
Original Song: Shallow/A Star Is Born (Could be: All the Stars/Black Panther)
Original Score: Black Panther (Could be: If Beale Street Could Talk)
Cinematography: Roma (Could be: Cold War)
Film Editing: Vice (Could be: Bohemian Rhapsody)
Production Design: The Favourite (Could be: Black Panther)
Costumes: Black Panther (Could be: The Favourite)
Makeup/Hair: Vice (Could be: Mary Queen of Scots)
Visual Effects: First Man (Could be: Avengers: Infinity War)
Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody (Could be: First Man)
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody (Could be: First Man)
Animated Short: Bao (Could be: Animal Behavior)
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence (Could be: End Game)
Live Action Short: Marguerite (Could be: Any of the others)


THE TELLURIDE EFFECT PART TWO

I wrote on Monday about "The Telluride Effect", the notion that a film now almost has to play Telluride to win Best Picture at the Oscars.  I reminded readers that the last decade seems to provide evidence for the theory with nine of the last ten winners having played TFF on their way to Oscar glory.

I also suggested that there might be five reasons that it could be true:

1) Reputation
2) Demographics
3) Ties to The Academy
4) Timing
5) Media Presence Increase

So, I asked a number of friends and acquaintances from the industry that are usual TFF attendees and asked them two questions:

1) Is the "Telluride Effect" real?
2) If so, why?


The first question drew mixed responses.

Film maker, Script Magazine contributor and long time Telluride Film Fest attendee Christopher Schiller writing that "it is certainly real from my observations" while Variety's Kristopher Tapley suggests that "It's potentially real."

Other respondents weren't as quick to sign on to the existence of The T-ride Effect.  Mark Johnson of Awards Circuit saying "I think it may just be lucky coincidence".  Indiewire's Eric Kohn came close to seconding Johnson's assessment claiming his belief that "it's arbitrary.

Variety's Peter DeBruge told me that it does exist as a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts"  but The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg said that "there is no way to know".

To the extent that it does or might exist, many of the answers I got to the second question as to why underscored the five points I made in Monday's post.

Telluride's reputation and its programming prowess were cited by Sasha Stone of Awards Daily as she said that it is a combination of factors including "the selection committee".    Schiller says that the fest has "always had from the very first one onward" the "class of selection" and that "producers who calculate a ride to the awards...consider getting the 'right' exposure from Telluride" 

Both Schiller and DeBruge take pains to say that they don't believe any of the "effect" is the conscious design of the TFF programmers.

In as far as my second and third points, that Telluride has great demographics including a significant Academy presence, those sentiments were echoed by Tapley who commented on "the concentration of Academy members that are present" and Stone who says that the "effect" may be true in part because of "the small amount of people who attend...that make it a perfect launching site for Oscar movies."

On to my fourth observation that some of it has to do with timing.  About this there was a good deal of agreement with the general notion but the specifics differed a bit.  Schiller pointed to the festival's benefiting from the decision of the Motion Picture Academy to move the date of the Oscar ceremony forward three weeks from the end of March to the end of February or early March.  That change came in 2003.  DeBruge mentions it's fortuitous placement between Venice and Toronto but Mark Johnson had, perhaps the most pointed comment concerning timing and the Best Picture Oscar saying that screening a film at Telluride mean that producers "have time for their film to take heat and recover from it."

My fifth point was the increase in the press coverage that has happened over the last decade plus.  Again, Peter DeBruge underscored my point in his commentary saying,  "The phenomenon is bolstered by...the steep increase in press coverage at the festival."  He went on to write, "Now that many more critics-and Oscar bloggers- attend, these movies now get early adulatory coverage, as opposed to getting lost among the 300 or so movies unspooling at Toronto a week later."

So, I felt good about the things I wrote on Monday but there were a couple of other tidbits among the responses that I felt merited mentioning. 


DeBruge added that not all plans to take advantage of The Telluride Effect, if in fact it does exist, go as planned.  For every Spotlight, Moonlight or Shape of Water, TFF can also be a place where those awards dreams sometimes crash.  He says, "let's not forget the many movies that miscalculated their own merits and were met with mixed reactions/downright disappointment by the discerning viewers in the Colorado mountains"  Among the films he mentioned: Labor Day, Hyde Park on Hudson and Downsizing.

It was Schiller who posed the obvious question that I overlooked which was "Will it last?"  which is a great question.  Chris has some of the same thought that I do suggesting that the changing particulars of the awards season may mean that the "effect" may be limited saying, "the quality structure that is the heart of Telluride may not align with the awards shows' proclivities in the future."

My take on Schiller's note here is what I said Monday in my second point which is that with the conscious move by the Academy to expand and diversify TFF's effect may change as a result.

Finally, leave it to THR's Scott Feinberg to put it most succinctly, "as long as Telluride films keep winning Best Picture, I expect distributors will continue to treat the fest as a must-go place."

Will that happen Sunday night?  If you read my predictions above...I think so....but it's tight people...IT IS TIGHT...

My thanks to:

Peter DeBruge/Variety
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Eric Kohn/Indiewire
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com


OSCAR EXPERTS FINAL PREDICTIONS

Here are links to the current "Final" predictions from a slew of Oscarologists:


Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Andrew Carden/The Awards Connection

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Steve Pond/The Wrap


That's all for MTFB for today.  I'll be back Monday with an Oscar breakdown.


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The Telluride Effect Part One / Berlin Film Fest Closes / Ken Burns' Country / Spotlight on Free Solo

Hope everyone had a pleasant weekend and is having a great President's Day.

THE TELLURIDE EFFECT PART ONE

Oscar night for 2019 is now just days away.  Final Oscar predictions from every source imaginable will be coming at you fast and furious over the next six days including in this space in Thursday's blog post.   

Some of the experts may mention "The Telluride Effect".  For those of you who are frequent readers here, the expression likely doesn't need any explanation.  For those that may not have bumped up against the term, here's an definition of sorts...The Telluride Effect suggests that for a film to win Best Picture at the Oscars it will have had to play at the Telluride Film Festival.  It does not mean the film has had to premiere at Telluride, only that it screens as a part of the festival's lineup.

The term (I think Sasha Stone at Awards Daily is actually the person who coined it) has emerged over the last decade-plus as, with one exception when The Hurt Locker won as 2009's Best Picture.

Here's the lowdown for those years:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire (premiered at Telluride)

2009: The Hurt Locker (no T-ride play)

2010: The King's Speech (premiered at Telluride)

2011: The Artist (premiered at Cannes then played Telluride)

2012: Argo (premiered at Telluride)

2013: 12 Years a Slave (premiered at Telluride)

2014: Birdman (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

2015: Spotlight (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

2016: Moonlight (premieres at Telluride)

2017: The Shape of Water (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

So there it is.  Nine of the last ten Best Picture winners and the last eight in a row have played Telluride and, as you can see, the most common route is to either premiere at Telluride originally or, of late, do the Venice to T-ride.  Only in the case of The Artist in the last decade has a film run through Cannes/Telluride to a Best Picture win.

This year, among the eight films nominated for Best Picture, the Telluride Effect's continuation depends on either Alfonso Cuaron's Roma or Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite.  If you read most Oscar experts you'll have seen that many feel Roma will win Sunday night.  I can't think of any that think The Favourite will be the big winner.  

Roma's chances appear to be reasonable.  I'd say something better than 50/50 but certainly not a lock.  Many prognosticators think Peter Farrelly's Green Book could win Sunday night.  Other, more distant possibilities might be BlacKkKlansman and Black Panther but most think it's down to Roma and Green Book.

I'll be on record on Thursday...but...hint, hint...I'm probably going to stick with the notion that The Telluride Effect continues to hold sway.

So...if it really exists, why?  You might ask.  I have a few ideas:

1) Reputation.  The fest has this string because they consistently program great film.  I think that attendees and peeps from the business pay attention to what Tom Luddy, Julie Huntsinger and crew secure to screen over Labor Day.

2) Demographics:  The fest, it seems to me, has a clientele that, at some level, mirrors the Academy.  That's probably changing some over the past few years as the Academy has made a strong effort to expand size and diversity.

3) And speaking of the Academy...TFF and AMPAS have had a significant relationship for a while and a good chunk of the attendees each year are members of the Academy.

4) Timing:  Telluride is in a sweet, sweet spot on the calendar.  Situated at the beginning of September and between Venice and Toronto is great positioning in terms of  setting the table for the fall films that will likely dominate the Oscar conversation.

5) The media has noticed.  There has always been a media presence since I started going to Telluride (since 2006) but over the last decade that seems to have increased dramatically.  As Telluride has, at the very least coincidentally, become a harbinger for what could occur during Oscar season, the press contingent seems to have become larger making for a more dramatic Telluride impact on the awards season.  At least it feels that way to me.

There are probably other reasons but these are the five that come to mind.  I know that Sasha Stone also has frequently suggested that the AMPAS choice a few years back to move the Oscars to earlier in the year has magnified the effect of fall film fests including Telluride.

Does it happen again this year?  For a big chunk of this Oscar season, I didn't think it would but as I said above, I think it's now more likely than not but it sure isn't a lock.  

I'll have more about The Telluride Effect in Thursday's post...

BERLIN FILM FEST CLOSES

The Berlin Film Festival concluded this week with the naming of Nadiv Lapid's Synonyms as the recipient of the Golden Bear, the fests more important prize.  Also winning awards: By the Grace of God, System Crasher, I Was at Home...But, and So Long My Son.

As I have written here, it isn't uncommon for Telluride to program a couple of films that premiere at Berlin.  Last year, for example, Dovlatov played Berlin first.  In 2017, A Fantastic Woman, The Other Side of Hope and Hostages all played the German fest prior to Telluride bows.

With its Silver Bear win, Francois Ozon's By the Grace of God may have moved to the front of the line for Berlin titles that could make the TFF #46 lineup.  A couple of other titles that I thought we should keep an eye lost some of their luster in that regard owing to mediocre/tepid critical response.  I'm referring to Lone Scherfig's The Kindness of Strangers and Agnieska Holland's Mr. Jones.

I have linked stories about Berlin;s awards here from

Screen International

Variety

Deadline

And critical roundups for the Berlin films are linked here from:

Metacritic

Reini Urban's Compilation


KEN BURNS' COUNTRY

I wrote a couple of weeks back about Ken Burns' upcoming PBS multi-part documentary about American Country/Western music and the possibility some of that might screen at Telluride prior to its bow on PBS in September.

PBS posted a 60 second teaser for the doc featuring Marty Stuart talking about the Grand Ole Opry and its place in Nashville and Country music history.  Here it is thanks to the magic of YouTube:

SPOTLIGHT ON FREE SOLO

I have had RBG at the top of my list to win the Best Documentary Oscar on Sunday night since the nominations were announced but the last week or so, there seems to be a real undercurrent in favor of Free Solo which, of course, played Telluride last Labor Day.  Honestly, between now and Thursday when I put up my final Oscar predictions, I may switch to Free Solo to win.

No less a light than Indiewire's Anne Thompson makes a compelling case for that possibility in the story she put up on Friday.  It's not really the focus of Anne's story but shows up in it.

You can see what Anne and what the film makers and climbers had to say to Anne as well by clicking here.


That's today's MTFB.  I'll have a Part Two about The Telluride Effect on Thursday in addition to my final Oscar picks for Sunday night's extravaganza.

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BOLO (Be On the Lookout): Nomadland / Melissa McCarthy on Lee Israel / Oscar Buzz

Howdy, Howdy on this Thursday and Happy Valentines Day to you and your nearest and dearest.

BOLO (BE ON THE LOOKOUT): NOMADLAND

Frances McDormand in Nomadland (photo via Fox Searchlight)

I don't always include news here when I come across news of films that seem to have the right mix of ingredients to become a selection for the Telluride Film Festival.  Most of the time I note whatever it is and store away its information and whatever news I have uncovered in a "Future Telluride" file that I keep.  Periodically I'll check that file and see what, if anything has or looks like it might pan out for Labor Day weekend.

Sometimes, however, something pops up that feels like such a realistic possibility that I skip the filing altogether and one of those instances happened this week with the revelation that director Chloe Zhao was working on an under-the-radar film.

That's notable as Zhao's last film was The Rider which played TFF #44 to tremendous acclaim and was released in 2018 and earned mentions among many critics "Best Of" lists and five Spirit Award nominations including one for Best Picture.

That, by itself would have been enough for me to take notice but other factors moved the needle a bit more.  The reason that the film came to light this week was its acquisition by frequent TFF participant Fox Searchlight.  Add to that some speculation the film might be bound for Cannes (The Rider played at Cannes in the Directors Fortnight section) put it over the top for me to include on my TFF #46 watch list and also seemed to be enough fuel to warrant mentioning it here and now rather than relegating it to my "Future Telluride" collection.

The film is titled Nomadland and stars Oscar winner Frances McDormand and Oscar nominee David Stratharin and is based on Jessica Bruder's non-fiction book "Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century".

I have linked coverage of the announcement here from:

Variety

Indiewire

Ioncinema

The Playlist

And, PS...it appears that Telluride favorite and past TFF Guest Director Alexander Payne looks to be set up with his newest project described as a "Horror-Comedy".  The Playlist reports that Payne will be directing The Menu.  Both Will Ferrell and Adam McKay are also involved as producers on the project.

You can read further details here from The Playlist

MELISSA MC CARTHY ON LEE ISRAEL

Oscar nominee Melissa McCarthy is featured in a new interview with Lexy Perez for The Hollywood Reporter talking about her character, Lee Israel, from Can You Ever Forgive Me? and other topics as well.  

Read that interview here

OSCAR BUZZ

Final Oscar voting is underway (it started Tuesday) and runs until next Tuesday, Feb. 19th with the Awards themselves...in whatever form and structure it ultimately takes, on Feb. 24th.

I'll have my final predictions a week from today.

At this point my current calculation is:

Picture: Roma

Director: Cuaron/Roma

Actress: Close/The Wife

Actor: Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody

Supporting Actress: Adams/Vice

Supporting Actor: Ali/Green Book

Original Screenplay: Green Book

Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman

Animated Feature: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

Documentary Feature: RBG

Foreign Language Film: Roma

Cinematography: Roma

Film Editing: Vice

Original Score: If Beale Street Could Talk

Original Song: Shallow/A Star Is Born

Costumes: The Favourite

Production Design: The Favourite

Makeup/Hair: Vice

Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War

Sound Editing: First Man

Sound Mixing: A Star Is Born

Animated Short: Bao

Doc Short: Period. End of Sentence.

Live Action Short: Marguerite

TFF #45 Films winning if I'm 100% accurate:

Roma (4): Picture, Direction, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

The Favourite (2): Costumes. Production Design

First Man (1): Sound Editing

Other winners:

Vice (3): Supporting Actress, Film Editing, Makeup/Hair

Green Book (2): Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay

A Star Is Born (2): Song, Sound Mixing

Single wins:

Bohemian Rhapsody-Actor

The Wife-Actress

BlacKkKlansman-Adapted Screenplay

Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse-Animated Feature

RBG-Documentary Feature

If Beale Street Could Talk-Original Score

Avengers: Infinity War-Visual Effects

Shorts- Bao, Period. End of Sentence, Marguerite.

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  More on Monday...


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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BAFTA Loves Telluride / TFF #45 Films Duke It Out for ASC Award / Oscar Predictions for Seven More Categories / Albert Finney 1936-2019

Welcome to a new week on this Monday...


BAFTA LOVES TELLURIDE

The  British Academy of Film and Television Arts named their film award winners on Sunday night and films that played TFF #45 last Labor Day weekend dominated the ceremony.  Alfonso Cuaron's Roma won for Best Film, Film not in the English Language, Direction and Cinematography.  Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite won the most trophies of the evening with seven including: Best Actress-Olivia Colman, Supporting Actress-Rachel Wiesz, Outstanding British Film, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup/Hair.

Additionally, TFF #45 selection Free Solo won Best Documentary.

TFF #45 films totaled 13 BAFTA wins altogether.

Complete lists of winners in all BAFTA categories plus some insight into what effect these results have on Oscar...whose voting opens tomorrow, is explored from these linked sources:

Deadline

Hollywood News

Indiewire



TFF #45 FILMS DUKE IT OUT FOR ASC AWARD

The American Society of Cinematographers sent a ripple of surprise and uncertainty into the Oscar race for Best Cinematography on Saturday night as they gave their top film prize to Lukasz Zal for shooting Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War.  Zal bested Alfonso Cuaron's Roma, thought by many to be the favorite for Oscar glory as well as other TFF #45 films First Man and The Favourite.  The other ASC nominees was A Star Is Born.

Indiewire has the story on the ASC presentation which is linked here.


OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SEVEN MORE CATEGORIES

Here are my Oscar predictions for seven more categories (which completes the wave of predictions for all 24 categories over the past week). 

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avengers: Infinity War
2) First Man
3) Ready Player One
4) Solo: A Star Wars Story
5 Christopher Robin

SOUND EDITING

1) First Man
2) A Quiet Place
3) Black Panther
4) Roma
5) Bohemian Rhapsody

SOUND MIXING

1) A Star Is Born
2) First Man
3) Roma
4) Black Panther
5) Bohemian Rhapsody

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Vice
2) Mary queen of Scots
3) Border

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Bao
2) Animal Behavior
3) Weekends
4) Late Afternoon
5) One Small Step

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Period. End of Sentence.
2) End Game
3) A Night at the Garden
4) Lifeboat
5) Black Sheep

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Marguerite
2) Detainment
3) Fauve
4) Skin
5) Mother




ALBERT FINNEY 1936-2019

Photo via IMDb

 A note here on the passing of this past weekend of five time Oscar nominee Albert Finney.  Finney has a spot in my heart since his role as mobster kingpin Leo in what is probably my favorite Coen Brothers film Miller's Crossing.

Four of Finney's Oscar nominations were for Male Lead: Tom Jones, Murder on the Orient Express, The Dresser and Under the Volcano.  He was also nominated for Supporting Actor in Erin Brockovich.  He turned down a knighthood in 2000.

Finney was 82.

Here's Indiewire's story on Finney's death.



That's the MTFB for this Monday.  More on Thursday.

Updated Oscar Predictions for Seven Categories / New Gurus of Gold / You Can't Rule It Out / First Look at Berlin's First Film

Good Thursday to all you TFF fans...


UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SEVEN CATEGORIES

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

1) Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
2) Incredibles 2
3) Isle of Dogs
4) Mirai
5) Ralph Breaks the Internet

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Mary Poppins Returns
3) Isle of Dogs
4) Black Panther
5) BlacKkKlansman

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Shallow/A Star Is Born
2) All the Stars/Black Panther
3) I'll Fight/RBG
4) The Place Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Returns
5) When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings/The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Roma
2) Cold War
3) A Star Is Born
4) The Favourite
5) Never Look Away

COSTUMES

1) The Favourite
2) Mary Poppins Returns
3) Black Panther
4) Bohemian Rhapsody
5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Favourite
2) Black Panther
3) Mary Poppins Returns
4) First Man
5) Roma

FILM EDITING

1) Vice
2) BlacKkKlansman
3) The Favourite
4) Bohemian Rhapsody
5) Green Book

NEW GURUS OF GOLD

Here's the link to the latest Oscar predictions from The Gurus of Gold at Movie City News.  They're linked here.  I'm in relatively good shape in as far as the collective predictions are concerned except in Film Editing where I'm way, way in a different place than the rest of the Gurus.

YOU CAN'T RULE IT OUT

I started seeing hints on Twitter the last couple of days that Martin Scorsese's The Irishman will likely have a theatrical release in September (perhaps late September) before its streaming release on Netflix, which is the money behind the film.  Jordan Ruimy of World of Reel tweeted this on Tuesday night:

Additionally, Ruimy posted a short story on his site which you can see here.

Of course, should this prove out, then the film, which is probably the most anticipated film of the year, has a window to screen at Telluride as well as Venice (if it doesn't screen in Cannes and my money says it screens at Cannes...assuming that fest and Netflix can come to some sort of mutually acceptable set of conditions-see my last post from Feb. 4th) and Toronto.

Making this all the more possible is the success this season of the Netflix produces Roma and should Roma ultimately win the Best Picture Oscar in two and a half weeks the chances of a T-ride play probably increase.

Stay tuned...

FIRST LOOK AT BERLIN'S FIRST FILM

Lone Scherfig's The Kindness of Strangers will open the Berlin Film Fest today.  The film is one of the Berlin titles that seems to me to have potential to be selected for The SHOW's 2019 lineup.

Deadline reported Tuesday that the film's producers have released a trailer for the film.  You can find that story and the embedded trailer here.

The Kindness of Strangers stars Zoe Kazan, Caleb Landry Jones, Andrea Riseborough and Bill Nighy and, in addition to opening the fest, will be one of the film's in competition for the Golden Bear.

Meanwhile, here is more coverage of the Berlinale from Indiewire with a story from David Ehrlich, Kate Erbland and Jude Dry looking at what they say are the ten most anticipated titles of the fest including several that are on my TFF #46 watch list including Mr. Jones, By the Grace of God, The Golden Glove and Varda by Agnes.


That's your MTFB update for this Thursday.  I'll have more on Monday.


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