FINAL (PROBABLY) OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS
Well, it's that time. Five months after the Telluride Film Festival, we're on the brink of knowing how The Academy has decided to honor the films of 2018...or at least, which films, performers and crafts people are still in the running for the film world's top honor.
What follows are my predictions in all 24 competitive Oscar categories. A couple of notes before we dive in. My success rate at nominations over the last few years has been between 75-80%. Past that statistic, I find that the film/performance that I have listed at the #6 (in the categories with the traditional five nominees) makes it onto the list of nominees in about 75% of the cases where I have missed a nominee in a category. In terms of sheer numbers, that means that if this year continues those trends , there are likely to be only 5-10 nominees across the 100+ total that I don't have predicted outright or as the first possibility after those five.
That said, it's such a weird, shifting year (Green Book wins PGA for example...see below) that the percentages could be way, way off.
Enough disclaimers...here are your predicted Oscar nominees for 2018 (Telluride films are Bold):
BEST PICTURE
1) Roma
2) Green Book
3) A Star Is Born
4) BlacKkKlansman
5) Black Panther
6) Vice
7) Bohemian Rhapsody
8) First Man
9) The Favourite
10) If Beale Street Could Talk
Maybe: First Reformed, Cold War
BEST DIRECTION
1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman
4) Adam McKay/Vice
5) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
6) Peter Farrelly/Green Book
Maybe: Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War, Ryan Coogler/Black Panther
BEST ACTRESS
1) Glenn Close/The Wife
2) Olivia Colman/The Favourite
3) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5) Yalitza Aparicio/Roma
6) Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns
Maybe: Viola Davis/Widows, Joanna Kulig/Cold War
BEST ACTOR
1) Christian Bale/Vice
2) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
3) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book
5) John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman
6) Ethan Hawke/First Reformed
Maybe: Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
3) Emma Stone/The Favourite
4) Amy Adams/Vice
5) Claire Foy/First Man
6) Margot Robbie/Mary, Queen of Scots
Maybe: Emily Blunt/A Quiet Place, Nicole Kidman/Boy Erased
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book
2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born
4) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman
5) Timothee Chalamet/Beautiful Boy
6) Sam Rockwell/Vice
Maybe: Michael B. Jordan/Black Panther
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Green Book
2) The Favourite
3) Roma
4) Vice
5) Eighth Grade
6) First Reformed
Maybe: Cold War, A Quiet Place
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) BlacKkKlansman
2) If Beale Street Could Talk
3) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4) A Star Is Born
5) Leave No Trace
6) Black Panther
Maybe: The Death of Stalin, Crazy Rich Asians, First Man
ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
2) Incredibles 2
3) Isle of Dogs
4) Marai
5) Ralph Breaks the Internet
6) Early Man
Maybe: The Grinch
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) Won't You Be My Neighbor
2) RBG
3) Free Solo
4) Minding the Gap
5) Shirkers
6) Three Identical Strangers
Maybe: Hale County This Morning, This Evening
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1) Roma
2) Cold War
3) Capernaum
4) Shoplifters
5) Never Look Away
6) Burning
Maybe: The Guilty
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Roma
2) A Star Is Born
3) First Man
4) Cold War
5) The Favourite
6) Black Panther
Maybe: If Beale Street Could Talk
COSTUMES
1) The Favourite
2) Mary Poppins Returns
3) Black Panther
4) Mary Queen of Scots
5) Bohemian Rhapsody
6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Maybe: BlacKkKlansman Vice, If Beale Street Could Talk,
FILM EDITING
1) A Star Is Born
2) Roma
3) Vice
4) BlacKkKlansman
5) First Man
6) The Favourite
Maybe: Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther
MAKEUP/HAIR
1) Vice
2) Black Panther
3) Mary Queen of Scots
4) Bohemian Rhapsody
Maybe: Border, Stan and Ollie, Suspiria
ORIGINAL SCORE
1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) First Man
3) Mary Poppins Returns
4) Isle of Dogs
5) Black Panther
6) BlacKkKlansman
Maybe: A Quiet Place, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
ORIGINAL SONG
1) Shallow/A Star Is Born
2) All the Stars/Black Panther
3) I'll Fight/RBG
4) Girl in the Movies/Dumplin'
5) Trip a Little Light Fantastic/Mary Poppins Returns
6) Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Return
Maybe: Revelation/Boy Erased
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) The Favourite
2) Mary Poppins Returns
3) First Man
4) Black Panther
5) Roma
6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Maybe: BlacKkKlansman
SOUND EDITING
1) First Man
2) A Quiet Place
3) Black Panther
4) Roma
5) Mary Poppins Returns
6) Ready Player One
Possible: A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Annihilation
SOUND MIXING
1) A Star Is Born
2) First Man
3) Mary Poppins Returns
4) Roma
5) A Quiet Place
6) Black Panther
Maybe: Bohemian Rhapsody
VISUAL EFFECTS
1) First Man
2) Black Panther
3) Ready Player One
4) Avengers: Infinity War
5) Mary Poppins Returns
6) Solo: A Star Wars Story
Maybe: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
ANIMATED SHORT
1) Bao
2) Age of Sail
3) Bird Karma
4) Late Afternoon
5) Animal Behavior
6) Weekends
Maybe: Bilby, Pepe Le Morse
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) Period. End of Sentence
2) End Game
3) Zion
4) My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes
5) Lifeboat
6) Women of the Gulag
Maybe: Black Sheep
LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) Caroline
2) Skin
3) Detainment
4) Fauve
5) Marguerite
6) Susotazs
Maybe: Mother
Sooooo...if I'm 100% accurate tomorrow morning (and as I said above, I should hit between 75-80%) that means the following:
Roma leads all films with 10 nominations and is the only film with double digit nominations. Telluride films earn 37 total nominations...which in terms of what normally happens...the average is 27-28 nominations, would mark 2018 as a stunning year for the Oscar success for films from TFF.
The nominations total is largely fueled by solid expectations for craft nominations especially for Roma, The Favourite and First Man. Here's the TFF film breakdown:
Roma (10): Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
The Favourite (9): Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress (2), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design
First Man (9): Picture, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects (should First Man miss on the Best Picture nomination and hit eight total nominees, it will establish a new record for a film with most nominations without getting a Best Picture bid...Mary Poppins Returns could do the same thing)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3) Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Cold War (2): Foreign Language Film, Cinematography
And single nominations for:
Shoplifters: Foreign Language Film
Free Solo: Documentary Feature
Caroline: Live Action Short
Fauve: Live Action Short
Other non-Telluride big players:
A Star Is Born (9) Including Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay
Black Panther (8): Including Picture, Score and Song
Mary Poppins Returns (8): Including Actress, Score and Song
BlacKkKlansman (7): Including Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay
Vice (7): Including Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay
Green Book (4): Including Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk (4): Including Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Score
Bohemian Rhapsody (3): Including Picture, Actor and Costumes
BUT DON'T TAKE MY WORD FOR IT: PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS
GREEN BOOK WINS PGA
Shaking things up as we get ready to have the Oscar nominees revealed to us tomorrow morning was Green Book's somewhat surprise win as Best Picture from The Producers Guild of America. It seemed to me that most pundits thought it was a likely showdown between A Star Is Born and Roma.
Green Book's win caused quite the uproar on Film Twitter Saturday and Sunday and also resulted in a number of folks in the biz to proclaim that the Peter Farrelly film was now the new front runner for the Best Picture Oscar supplanting both ASIB and Roma.
I'm not there yet. I still lean toward a Roma win on Feb. 24th but, as you know, that could change.
Oscar voters begin voting for the winners on Feb. 12th and runs through Feb. 19th.
AND LOOKING AHEAD-BERLIN
The Berlin International Film Festival is set to open on Feb. 7th and runs through the 17th. Berlin almost always provides a film or two that make it onto the TFF lineup on Labor Day weekend. Meanwhile, Sundance opens on Thursday and will almost certainly serve as an "excluder" in as far as potential Telluride film choices are concerned. It almost always does.
Looking at their announced films one might speculate about possible Telluride plays based on previous TFF appearances and expected release dates. So...put on your list the following as possible TFF #46 selections:
Opening Night Film The Kindness of Strangers from director Lone Scherfig
Francois Ozon's By the Grace of God
Agnieszka Holland's Mr. Jones (last mentioned in this space under the title Gareth Jones)
Zhang Yimou's One Second
Fatih Akin's The Golden Glove
Agnes Varda's Varda by Agnes
That's your MTFB for today. I'm planning to have a Special Post up tomorrow mid-morning after the Oscar nominations announcements with the list of nominees and some analysis about Telluride films and the Oscar race in general. Should be a hoot.
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