More Peering Into the Oscar Crystal Ball / Barry Jenkins Oscar Speech / Arthur Miller Has a Trailer

Good Monday morning and apologies for today's tardiness.  Still trying to manage the switch to daylight savings time.


MORE PEERING INTO THE OSCAR CRYSTAL BALL

More Oscar prognosticators have begun to turn the page from the 90th Oscars to begin to lay the groundwork for the 91st.  As is my custom, I am mining their predictions for potential players for TFF #45.

Erik Anderson of Awards Watch posted his first pass this past week.  Included on his Best Picture list are these films that might make the Telluride lineup:

Backseat-The Adam McKay directed biopic of Dick Cheney with Christian Bale and Amy Adams.

Black Klansman- This is my first inclusion on the prospective Telluride 2018 list.  It's from Spike Lee and is based on the true story of  Ron Stallworth, an African-American lawman who infiltrated the KKK.  My primary reason for inclusion:  It's distributed by Focus Features which played Darkest Hour at TFF last year.

Boy Erased- dir: Joel Edgerton

Can You Ever Forgive Me?-Melissa McCarthy stars in a drama. Marielle Heller directs and its from Fox Searchlight...which had a good year last year with a little film that played Telluride called The Shape of Water.

Everybody Knows-  Asghar Farhadi is back.  The film maker played past Tellurides with A Separation and The Past but did  not in 2016 with The Salesman.  A return could happen with this project that stars Penelope Cruz and Javier Bardem.

First Man- Damian Chazelle's La La Land follow up about astronaut Neil Armstrong.

The Front Runner-Jason Reitman's focus on Gary Hart's flame out presidential run in with Hugh Jackman playing the Senator.

If Beale Street Could Talk- Barry Jenkins...

The Man Who Killed Don Quixote- Terry Gilliam's multi-decade passion project.

Mary, Queen of Scots- Saorise Ronan and Margot Robbie go toe to toe in this historical biopic.  I'm actually back and forth about its chances, but it's also from Focus Features which, for the moment, tipped the scales for me to include it here.

Old Man and the Gun- Fox Searchlight again and Robert Redford...a past TFF tribute recipient.

Peterloo- Mike Leigh directs the story of labor strife in England.

Roma- Alfonso Cuaron could be back after Gravity's play in 2013.

Widows-Steve McQueen directs.  That, by itself, might be enough to mean a Telluride play.

And maybe, again, maybe...Martin Scorsese's The Irishman...depending on what Netflix decides to do with its delivery.

Here's is Anderson's complete post.


Meanwhile, Joey Magidson has 2018-19 10 Oscar Best Picture picks up at Hollywood News.  They include, as you'd expect, many of the same films that Anderson has named:

First Man, Backseat, The Front Runner, The Irishman and Boy erased.  He also includes The Women of Marwen starring Steve Carrel.

Magidson's post is here


BARRY JENKINS OSCAR SPEECH

Photo from Indiewire

In the melee that was the end of the Oscar telecast in 2017, and with the reversal of fortune that presented itself after it was discovered that the winner was Moonlight and not La La Land, Barry Jenkins didn't get a chance to say what he intended to say as the telecast concluded.

That oversight was corrected, at least in some measure, yesterday in Austin, TX at the South by Southwest Fest where Jenkins was a keynote speaker. 

Among other comments, Jenkins discussed the importance of not placing limitations on oneself.

Here is linked coverage of the address from Jenkins from:

Variety

Deadline

Indiewire

Got to say that I'm glad Jenkins gt the chance.


ARTHUR MILLER HAS A TRAILER

Rebecca Miller and HBO Docs brought Arthur Miller; Writer to TFF #45 last fall and now HBO has set its reveal for Mar. 19th.  Consequently, a trailer for the documentary has been released.  Here that is from YouTube:

That's all for today.  More to come on Thursday.

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The Oscar Dust Settles / Looking Ahead to Oscar 2019 and Telluride

It's the Thursday after the Oscars....


THE OSCAR DUST SETTLES

Let it be said that I personally enjoyed Oscar Night 2018.  Largely for these reasons:

1) The Telluride Film Festival Streak of screening the Best Picture winner clicked over to eight straight years in a row  and nine of the last ten.   That's cool.  More about that a little later.

2) I had a big night in the prediction department going 21 of 24 (and 20 of 21 in the non-shorts categories.  The only feature category that I whiffed on: Visual Effects where I had War for the Planet of the Apes and Blade Runner 2049 won.  In a side note: I did list BR 2049 as a possible player in the category.

3) I loved seeing Guillermo Del Toro win.  Such a warm and kind fellow human.  Needless to say, I plastered the pic he took of himself with me and my wife all over Twitter and Facebook...again.  And here it is:

This was taken at the Fox Searchlight party at the New Sheridan Bar.

Notes on the season...

As mentioned in Monday's post, Telluride films picked up seven Oscars:

The Shape of Water had four: Best Picture, Direction, Production Design and Original Score

Darkest Hour had two: Best Actor and Makeup and Hair

A Fantastic Woman was Best Foreign Language Film

In addition to TFF #44 continuing the Best Picture string, I'm going to note that the People's,  Pro's and Composite Telluride rankings featured here every year after the fest have become surprisingly predictive.

For example, I've done The People's Telluride Ratings and The Professionals Ratings (or some version of them) here now since 2012 and the Composite of the two since 2013.

Up until last year, and Moonlight's win, the film that finished as the second highest rated film in the People's Ratings won the Best Picture Oscar.  Moonlight broke that string when the 2016 T-ride crowd rated it #1.  This year...the #2 spot was golden again as that's where The Shape pf Water finished (2nd to Lady Bird).

However, the Composite ratings have been five straight years of invincible with the composite top rated film in each year since I started it in 2013 winning Oscar's top prize.

Of the three metrics, the Pros are a bit more all over the place:

2012- Argo was #2 to The Central Park Five

2013- 12 Years a Slave was #1

2014-  Birdman was #1

2015- Spotlight was #3 behind Son of Saul and Anomalisa

2016- Moonlight was #1

2017- The Shape of Water was #1

So...if you're looking to wager next fall after TFF #45 concludes, check the #1 Composite rated film in this space about two weeks after the fest.

LOOKING AHEAD TO OSCAR 2019

The Oscar season never really ends.  Any number of Oscar Prognosticators have already started the running tote board for next year's awards.  That. as you know, can offer us clues about what films might be on the Telluride SHOW list in six months.  So...because this is what it is...I'll be looking at some of the "year-out" predictions for clues for possible films make The SHOW lineup starting with this article from Awards Circuit's Clayton Davis.

Among Davis' Best Picture predictions are some that have a real chance to be at Telluride:

Backstreet (the Adam McKay Dick Cheney movie with last year's TFF Tribute recipient Christian Bale as Cheney)

If Beale Street Could Talk (Telluride favorite Barry Jenkins follow-up to a little film called Moonlight...maybe you've heard of it)

Martin Scorsese's The Irishman. I can see Netflix wanting to play this at Telluride.

Boy Erased.  Joel Edgerton's drama about gay conversion therapy.

At Eternity's Gate-could Julian Schnabel return to Telluride with this story of Vincent Van Gogh starring Willem Dafoe?

Mary Queen of Scots with Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie and from Focus Features (which had a very nice Telluride 2017 with Darkest Hour.

On the Basis if Sex-Mimi Leder's Ruth Bader Ginsburg pic starring Felicity Jones and also from Focus Features.

Private Life-Tamara Jenkins first feature since 2007's The Savages, which was great and played Telluride.  Paul Giamatti stars.

Widows-Steve McQueen.  He's played Telluride with Hunger, Shame, 12 Years a Slave.  

Roma-Alfonso Cuaron.  After Gravity's success at T-ride and the great run that he and his amigos -Inarritu and now Del Toro have also had a TFF play wouldn't surprise.

That's all for today.  More to come on Monday!

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And the Oscar Goes To.... / The Telluride Streak Continues / Better Than Last Year

Good Post-Oscar morning Film Nerds!


AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Here are your winners from the 90th Academy Awards as announced last night (***indicates a missed prediction):

Best Picture: The Shape of Water
Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Supporting Actress; Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory/Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele/Get Out
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Animated Feature: Coco
Best Documentary: Icarus
Best Film Editing: Dunkirk
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049 (Deakins finally wins!)
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: Remember Me/Coco
Best Makeup/Hair: Darkest Hour
Best Costumes: Phantom Thread
Best Sound Editing Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049***
Best Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405***
Best Live Action Short: The Silent Child***
Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball

The Shape of Water led the pack with four Oscars: Picture, Director, Original Score and Production Design

Dunkirk had three: Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing

Darkest Hour had two: Actor and Makeup/Hair

Three Billboards had two: Actress and Supporting Actor

Coco had two: Animated Feature and Song

Blade Runner 2049 had two: Cinematography and Visual Effects

TFF #44 films took home seven Oscars for Best Picture, Director, Original Score, Actor, Foreign Language Film, Production Design, Makeup/Hair.


THE TELLURIDE STREAK CONTINUES

Beginning in 2008 with Slumdog Millionaire, nine of the last ten Best Picture winners have come through Telluride.  That run now includes a string of eight in a row.  The Shape of Water's win last night continues the streak:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2009: The Hurt Locker (not at TFF)
2010: The King's Speech
2011: The Artist
2012: Argo
2013: 12 Years a Slave
2014: Birdman
2015: Spotlight
2016: Moonlight
2017: The Shape of Water

That may finally mean that we can say that the best indicator/precursor for predicting what will win Best Picture now is a Telluride appearance.  It seems, after this crazy and unpredictable and suspenseful Oscar season that a TFF play is more reliable than almost any other precursor whether that's a guild award or some other awards program.

At least until it isn't.

Undoubtedly, the time will come when some film will win Best Picture that does NOT play Telluride.  That's inevitable and this year seemed like a prime year for that to be true but right this minute, this morning...if I were a film maker, producer, Oscar groomer, whatever...and I wanted my film to be a serious player for the big prize a year from now, I'd be busting my hump to get selected for TFF #45.

One other note:  Last night's win for Del Toro for Best Director and Best Picture was particularly sweet after the Del Toro experience we had, especially that my wife had at the fest last fall.  Again, for those who reached out and busted their buns to help make her meeting the new Oscar winner possible, thank you.  You know who you are and many of you swore me to keep your efforts quiet...so ...no names...but, again...thank you from the depths of my soul.

I'll have more on Thursday...with further thoughts as well as an analysis of TFF #44's impact on Oscar.


BETTER THAN LAST YEAR

Just a quick note that MTFB went 21 of 24 for Oscar predicting last night (after a late change in the Documentary category to Icarus).  As usual, the Shorts portion cratered the night.  I was 1 of 3 for the Shorts and 20 of 21 everywhere else.

And...look out...I'll talk Thursday about the Telluride film ratings we do here with the attendees, professionals and their composite.  It has become a ridiculously reliable bellwether for Oscar.

More on Thursday!

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Final Oscar #90 Predictions / Oscar Predictions from the Experts

Here's a special Sunday edition of  MTFB...because, you know, Oscars...


FINAL OSCAR #90 PREDICTIONS

Here are MTFB's final Oscar predictions for 2018.  Accuracy you ask?  Last year was a semi-disaster  as I only correctly predicted 15 of the 24 categories.  That repeated 2016's tally.  That came on the heels of the 2015 and 16 Oscars where I was on fire going 40 of 48 over the previous two years.

Here's

2017: 15/24
2016: 15/24
2015: 20/24
2014: 22/24
2013: 18/24
2012: 18/24
2011: 17/24
2010: 14/24

The overall record for the past eight years of Oscar predicting: 139/192 for a 72.4% success rate.  All that means that the the average suggests that I'll hit about 17 or 18 of these and miss on six or seven.

With that in mind here are MTFB's predictions for The 90th Academy Awards:


BEST PICTURE

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Dunkirk
5) Lady Bird
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) Darkest Hour
9) The Post

The top five seem like the only real candidates and their positions are fluid.  We've gotten used to having a two horse race down the finish these past few years:

Moonlight vs. La La Land
Spotlight vs. The Revenant
Birdman vs. Boyhood
12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity

But this year...you can make a reasonable case for any of the top four and Lady Bird still has a path to the big prize. I'm putting the nomination leader and PGA/DGA winner at the top: The Shape of Water
 
Late note:  I have moved Get Out ahead of Dunkirk to the #3 spot as of 11am (CDT) Sunday morning.

BEST ACTRESS

It's Frances McDormand's.  Upset specials: Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan.

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman for the win.  Timothee Chalamet is your best chance at a spoiler.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Allison Janney has this sown up in a race that was once perceived as a tight contest with Laurie Metcalf.  If anyone would upset, it would be her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sam Rockwell with the win in another category that was initially thought to be competitive with Willem Dafoe.

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro is your favorite to win here but it's not a lock. Christopher Nolan is a possible upset.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

No one thinks it's likely that anyone but James Ivory wins for Call Me By Your Name.  Upset special: Aaron Sorkin for Molly's Game.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

A category that is very competitive.  Three Billboards and Get Out are thought to be the favorite with Lady Bird and The Shape of Water with an outside chance.  My call, for the moment: Get Out.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Coco is an incredibly prohibitive favorite.  If there were a spoiler it might be The Breadwinner.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

This is all over the place.  I've run across support for the notion of any one of the five films winning the trophy Sunday night.  For the moment, let's call the winner A Fantastic Woman with The Square and Loveless also possible.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Another difficult race.  I've changed this prediction to Icarus with TFF #44's Faces Places as the upset possible.

BEST FILM EDITING

A tight race between Dunkirk and Baby Driver.  I'm going with Dunkirk.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will it be Roger Deakins' year, finally, for Blade Runner 2049?   I'm saying yes but there is also a lot of support for Dunkirk and The Shape of Water.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Shape of Water seems most likely followed by Blade Runner 2049.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Another toss up.  I'm going with Remember Me from Coco with This Is Me from The Greatest Showman as the upset special.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Alexandre Desplat looks to have the inside track for The Shape of Water.  Hans Zimmer could get it for Dunkirk.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

I'm expecting Phantom Thread to win this with The Shape of Water as a potential spoiler.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

The overwhelming sentiment is that the crew from Darkest Hour will win for their transformation of Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill.  Wonder could challenge, but likely will not.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

A very competitive category from which I'm predicting War for the Planet of the Apes but Blade Runner 2049 or Last Jedi could also play.

BEST SOUND MIXING

Dunkirk.  Maybe Baby Driver.

BEST SOUND EDITING

Dunkirk.  Maybe Baby Driver.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Dear Basketball is my pick here to win.  Runner Up: Garden Party

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

DeKalb Elementary with The Silent Child as your upset special.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Edith and Eddie edges out Heroin(e).

If these predictions are 100% accurate (and they won't be...see above) then TFF #44 films will lay out this way:

The Shape of Water wins four : Best Picture, Direction, Original Score and Production Design

Darkest Hour wins two: Best Actor and Makeup/Hair

A Fantastic Woman; Best Foreign Language Film

Total Telluride take: Seven Oscars.

Other multiple winners:

Dunkirk with three: Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Three Billboards with two: Best Actress and Supporting Actor
Coco wins two: Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song

Among feature categories, seven films will pick up a single Oscar:


I, Tonya: Best Supporting Actress
Get Out: Best Original Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name: Best Adapted Screenplay
Icarus: Best Doc
Blade Runner 2049: Best Cinematography (Roger Deakins finally gets Oscar)
War for the Planet of the Apes: Best Visual Effects
Phantom Thread: Best Costumes


OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

Here's an analysis of Oscar predictions from expert Oscarologists with links to their final picks.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Sasha and I diverge on Best Pic.  She has Three Billboards.  Other spots where we disagree and Sasha's picks in each:

Song: Mighty River
Foreign Film: The Insult
Doc Short: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Animated Short: Garden Party
Live Action Short: My Nephew Emmett


Kristopher Tapley-Variety/InContention

Kris and I diverge in four categories:  Kris has:

Original Screenplay: Three Billboards
Song: This Is Me
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Doc Short: Heroin(e)

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Scott has five differences from my picks:

Foreign Language: The Insult
Production Design: Blade Runner 2049
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Doc Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Live Action Short: The Eleven O'Clock

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Anne and I match a good deal.  We differ in two categories:

Documentary: Faces Places
Doc Short: Heroin(e)


Awards Watch

Erik Anderson's group and I diverge in six places:

Song: This Is Me
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Doc: Last Men in Aleppo
Foreign Language Film: Loveless
Doc Short: Heroin(e)
Live Action Short: The Silent Child

Greg Ellwood/The Playlist

Greg and I are hugely agreeable only picking one category differently.  Greg's picks that are different from mine:

Doc Short: Heroin(e)

Pete Hammond/Deadline

Pete and I diverge in three categories:  He says:

Foreign Language Film: The Insult
Doc Short: Heroin(e)
Animated Short: Negative Space


I'll have more in tomorrow morning's regularly scheduled post.


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Predictions for Eight More Oscar Categories / Berlin Analysis

It's the last Thursday before Oscar...

PREDICTIONS FOR EIGHT MORE OSCAR CATEGORIES

Here are the final eight category predictions for Oscar #90.  This completes a stab at all 24 categories over the last week.  I'll post FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS ON SUNDAY.


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

I'm expecting Phantom Thread to win this with The Shape of Water as a potential spoiler.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

The overwhelming sentiment is that the crew from Darkest Hour will win for their transformation of Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill.  Wonder could challenge, but likely will not.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

A very competitive category from which I'm predicting War for the Planet of the Apes but Blade Runner 2049 or Last Jedi could also play.

BEST SOUND MIXING

Dunkirk.  Maybe Baby Driver.

BEST SOUND EDITING

Dunkirk.  Maybe Baby Driver.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Dear Basketball is my pick here to win.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

DeKalb Elementary with The Silent Child as your upset special.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Edith and Eddie edges out Heroin(e).



BERLIN ANALYSIS



In my last post, I suggested six films that might have some possibility as players from the Berlin International Film Fest to make an appearance over Labor Day weekend in Telluride.

They were:

Alonso Ruizpalzcios' Museum
Christian Petzold's Transit
Aleksey German's Dovlatov
Malgorzata Szumowska's Mug
Marcelo Martinessi's The Heiresses
Erik Poppe's U: July 22

Interestingly, Awards Watch posted a story on Monday that assessed the films that might have some 2019 Oscar prospects.  Erik Anderson lists four of  the six films as potential Foreign Language Film potential nominees: Mug, Museum, The Heiresses and U: July 22.

Anderson's conjectures add fuel to my speculation that these films are potential TFF #45 titles.  

The Awards Watch story is here .

More on Sunday!

Oscar Predictions: Below the Line Part One / Berlin Closes / Features for TFF #44 Films Heroin(e) and Loveless

It's Monday...Oscar is less than a week away.


OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BELOW THE LINE PART ONE

I'm taking a look today at eight additional categories for this year's 90th Oscar ceremony. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Coco is an incredibly prohibitive favorite.  If there were a spoiler it might be The Breadwinner.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

This is all over the place.  I've run across support for the notion of any one of the five films winning the trophy Sunday night.  For the moment, let's call the winner A Fantastic Woman with The Square and Loveless also possible.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Another difficult race.  Let's say Faces/Places with Icarus as the upset possible.

BEST FILM EDITING

A tight race between Dunkirk and Baby Driver.  I'm going with Dunkirk.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will it be Roger Deakins year, finally, for Blade Runner 2049?   I'm saying yes but there is also a lot of support for Dunkirk and The Shape of Water.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Shape of Water seems most likely followed by Blade Runner 2049.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Another toss up.  I'm going with Remember Me from Coco with This Is Me from The GReatest Showman as the upset special.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Alexandre Desplat looks to have the inside track for The Shape of Water.  Hans Zimmer could get it for Dunkirk.

I'll have a set of predictions on Thursday for the remaining eight categories and the comprehensive final set of predictions in a special Sunday edition of MTFB.



BERLIN CLOSES

The 68th Berlin International Film Festival came to a close over the weekend with The Golden Bear going to Adina Pintilie's Touch Me Not.

Berlin has been a noticeable touchstone for films that end up playing Telluride in the fall with such films as A Fantastic Woman and The Other Side of Hope being examples from last year.

The Berlin-Telluride crossover has been very common as this list attests:

2016: Fire at Sea (Golden Bear winner), Things to Come
2015: Taxi (Golden Bear winner), 45 Years, Ixcanul
2014: 50 Year Argument, '71, The Decent One, Diplomacy
2013: Gloria, Fifi Howls from Happiness, Le Maison de la Radio, Slow Food Story, On Death Row
2012: Barbara, A Royal Affair
2011: Forgiveness of Blood, Mondo Lux, Pina, A Separation (Golden Bear winner), Target, The Turin Horse
2010: Daniel Schmid, If I Want to Whistle I Whistle, The Illusionist
2009: Gigante, London River
2008: Happy-Go-Lucky, I've Lover You So Long
2007: The Counterfeiters

Last year I listed five Berlin films that I thought were the most likely to continue the trend with both Fantastic Woman and Other Side of Hope making that list (The other mentions were The Party, On Body and Soul and Spoor.

But...I have to tell you that I have no films from this year's Berlin Fest that are pinging my TFF sonar.

If forced to name some possibilities, I'd probably guess:

Alonso Ruizpalzcios' Museum
Christian Petzold's Transit
Aleksey German's Dovlatov
Malgorzata Szumowska's Mug
Marcelo Martinessi's The Heiresses
Erik Poppe's U: July 22


Here's coverage of the Berlin fests awards from Variety. 

And also from Indiewire.


FEATURES FOR TFF #44 FILMS: HEROIN(E) AND LOVELESS

I ran across a couple of articles that focused on two films that played TFF #44 and are Oscar nominated.

Business Insider took a look this week at the Short Doc Oscar nominated Heroin(e) which focuses on the opioid epidemic in a small town in West Virginia.

That profile is here.

And I also tumbled across an Ioncinema interview with twice Oscar nominated Russian director Andrey Zvyagintsev (Leviathan) whose Loveless is nominated for Best Foreign Language Film this year.

That interview is here.


That''s a wrap for MTFB for this Monday.  More coming Thursday.


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Oscar Predictions Ten Days Out / Future Telluride: Quixote, The Goldfinch and Radioactive

Last Thursday in February my friends...


OSCAR PREDICTIONS TEN DAYS OUT

With a week and a half left before they open the envelopes in L.A. and still a few days left to vote, here are Oscar predictions for the eight major feature film categories at this moment:

BEST PICTURE

1)  The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Dunkirk
4) Get Out
5) Lady Bird
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) Darkest Hour
9) The Post

The top five seem like the only real candidates and their positions are fluid.  We've gotten used to having a two horse race down the finish these past few years:

Moonlight vs. La La Land
Spotlight vs. The Revenant
Birdman vs. Boyhood
12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity

But this year...you can make a reasonable case for any of the top four and Lady Bird still has a path to the big prize.  I'll update these predictions next week but for now, I'm putting the nomination leader and PGA/DGA winner at the top.

The Wrap's Steve Pond wrote about the five films still thought to be in contention.  Here is Pond's article.

BEST ACTRESS

It's Frances McDormand's.  Upset specials: Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan.

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman for the win.  Timothee Chalamet is your best chance at a spoiler.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Alison Janney has this sown up in a race that was once perceived as a tight contest with Laurie Metcalf.  If anyone would upset, it would be her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sam Rockwell with the win in another category that was initially thought to be competitive with Willem Dafoe.

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro is your favorite to win here but it's not a lock. Christopher Nolan is a possible upset.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

No one thinks it's likely that anyone but James Ivory wins for Call Me By Your Name.  Upset special: Aaron Sorkin for Molly's Game.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

An category that is very competitive.  Three Billboards and Get Out are thought to be the favorite with Lady Bird and The Shape of Water with an outside chance.  My call, for the moment: Get Out.


FUTURE TELLURIDE: QUIXOTE, THE GOLDFINCH AND RADIOACTIVE

Three films that appear, at least initially to be potential choices for future TFFs are moving forward.

We have stills from Terry Gilliam's incredibly long gestating passion project, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote.  The film still seems very likely for Cannes and then, perhaps a play at Telluride could be in the offing.  The Playlist put up a new still from the film that has completed filming and is in editing.  As a matter of fact, a rough cut has been screened.

Here's the pic of Jonathan Pryce as Quixote:

The Playlist post is here.

We also saw the first stills from The Goldfinch based on the Donna Tartt novel and under the direction of John Crowley (Brooklyn).  The film is currently scheduled for release on Oct. 11, 2019.

Warner Brothers is distributing and has a solid recent history with films playing at Telluride: Argo, Black Mass, Sully.

Indiewire had a number of shots from the film in a post up earlier this week:

That Indiewire post is here.

And finally, we saw news this week of the next film project from film maker Marjane Satrapi who made waves at Telluride in 2007 with her wonderful animated film Persepolis. 

Variety reported that Amazon has decided to back her next project which will focus on the life of famed scientist Madame Marie Curie.  The film is titled Radioactive.

The film is set to star Rosamund Pike as the trail blazing scientist.  Pike was a guest at Telluride last year with her film Hostiles.

The Variety story is here.


More on Monday including Oscar predictions in more categories.

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Afta the BAFTA / Trailer for The Rider Lands

Good Presidents Day to all...

AFTA THE BAFTA

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts presented the Brit equivalent of the Oscar and Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was the big winner taking Best Picture, Best British Film, Best Actress (Frances McDormand), Best Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell) and Best Original Screenplay.

Guillermo Del Toro won Best Director for The Shape of Water.  Shape also won Best Production Design and Best Original Score. 

Gary Oldman won as Best Actor for Darkest Hour.  That film also won Best Makeup and Hair.  Those two films were the TFF #44 haul for the BAFTAs for 2018 as Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird and Paul McGuigan's Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool both got shut out.


The BAFTAS are the last stop on the pre-Oscar road and as such, is the last chance for films to get a little boost.  It's also our last peek at something that could point to what will happen on Oscar night. 

Oscar voting opens tomorrow and closes on Feb. 27th.  The Oscar ceremony is set for Mar. 4th.

Last year TFF #43 films won eight BAFTAS.  La La Land won five including Best Picture, Manchester by the Sea won two and Arrival won one.

Linked coverage of the BAFTAs is here from:

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter 

Indiewire


The BAFTA results have Oscar predictors all over the map on Best Picture.  It seems like a Three Billboards vs. Shape of Water race but their are still voices whispering Get Out and Dunkirk. 

My Lady Bird theory looks weak now.  The notion that it could win on a preferential ballot was intriguing but you also have to figure that it needed one big guild win or a BAFTA mention or two for that theory to make the grade.

And, of course, if Shape of Water, Lady Bird or Darkest Hour don't win Best Picture, that would break the Telluride string of having every Best Picture play the fest since 2010.  At this point, I think it's about 2 to 1 that the string ends on March 4.

Finally, the acting awards all look locked up: McDormand, Oldman, Janney (who won the Supporting Actress BAFTA for I, Tonya) and Rockwell have swept the precursors and all look like your Oscar winners in a couple of weeks.  I'll have a new set of Oscar predictions on Thursday.


TRAILER FOR THE RIDER

Critical favorite from Cannes and then Telluride, Chloe Zhao's The Rider had a trailer release this week.  The film is nominated for four Independent Spirit Awards including Best Feature and is set for U.S. release on April 13th.

The Rider finished tied for #2 in the TFF #44 MTFB Professionals ratings and #6 in the Composite ratings.

Here's Alex Billington/FirstShowing.net's article that accompanied the release of the trailer from earlier this week.

That's today's MTFB.  More on Thursday...

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The Tenth Telluride Film Festival Re-visited / Oscar Watchers Say...

Welcome to Thursday...

THE TENTH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL RE-VISITED

My ongoing history project for the Telluride Film Festival goes on as we look at the the Tenth TFF that occurred Sept. 2-5, 1983.  Here are the particulars:

Tributes:

Richard Widmark, Andrei Tarkovsky and Luis Trenker.  Irwin Young was rewarded with a Special Medallion.  Additionally, the fest included a homage to David Niven.

SHOWS:

Alambrista
The Ballad of Gregorio Cortez
Boat People
Booker
Carmen
The Challenge
Chan Is Missing
Danton
Detour
Dung Aw
El Norte
Entre Nous
The Eyes, The Mouth
Forbidden Relations
In Heaven There Is No Beer
In the Name of the Father
Insiang
The Kaiser from California
Last Night at the Alamo
The Lost Son
My Name Is Ivan
Night and the City
Nostalghia
Pitfall
The Plague Dogs
Play Dirty
Rings on the Water
Seeing Red
Signal
The Simple Minded Murder
Sli
Testament
Turumba
The Way Ahead
White Shadows on the South Sea


GUESTS

William Devane
Taylor Hackford
Leonard Maltin
Edward James Olmos
Wayne Wang


OSCAR WATCHERS SAY...

Here's a quick sampler of where a number of the best Oscarologists think the Best Picture race is a week before the actual final voting starts:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily:

1) Get Out
2) The Shape of Water
3) Dunkirk
4) Three Billboards
5) Lady Bird
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) Darkest Hour
8) The Post
9) Phantom Thread

Stone's latest predictions are here.

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Lady Bird
4) Dunkirk
5) Phantom Thread
6) Get Out
7) Darkest Hour
8) Call Me By Your Name
9) The Post

Davis' latest predictions are here.

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Darkest Hour
8) Call Me By Your Name
9) The Post

Feinberg's latest predictions are here.

Erik Anderson (and crew)/Awards Watch:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) Darkest Hour
9) The Post

Awards Watch's latest predictions are here.

Gold Derby:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) Phantom Thread
8) The Post
9) Darkest Hour

Gold Derby's latest predictions are here.



That's today's MTFB.  More on Monday.

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The Writers Take the Spotlight / The Wrap Raps with Del Toro (who also has a new gig)

Welcome to Monday, my friends...

THE WRITERS TAKE THE SPOTLIGHT

Writing awards were the name of the game over the weekend as The Writers Guild of America named their best screenplays of the year.  Last Night the WGA named Get Out as Best Original Screenplay and James Ivory's Call Me By Your Name as Best Adapted Screenplay.  

The awards probably signal the Oscar winners in each category and also may portend which film takes home the Best Picture prize on Mar. 4th. as many Oscarologists believe that the win gives Get Out a boost with Oscar voting not set to get under way for another week.

Ivory also won the USC Scripter prize for adapted screenwriting for Call Me By Your Name.

With the WGA and Scripter awards announced that leaves only next week's BAFTA awards as the final precursor/harbinger for this Oscar season.  Oscar final voting will open Feb. 20th and closes a week later.

The Independent Spirit Awards will be announced on Saturday, Mar. 3rd with the Oscar ceremony to occur the following night.

Here's Indiewire's coverage of the USC Scripter Award announcement.

And their coverage of the WGA.

THE WRAP RAPS WITH DEL TORO

Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water is right in the thick of the Oscar Best Picture race with the most nominations of any film (13).  It is considered by serious Oscar watchers as a very real threat to take home the big prize.  As such, Del Toro has been very accessible to media these past few months since Telluride and that has included a recent sit down with The Wrap.

The video is just shy of 30 minutes as Del Toro echoes many of the themes and ideas that audiences hear in T-ride just over five months ago.

You can access the story and video here.

  

One other quick note about Del Toro.  We know that he will not be in Telluride for TFF #45 as we discovered overnight that he has been named to preside over the Venice Film Fest jury.  I could have seen him back over Labor Day in support of Alfonso Cuaron's Roma much like Alejandro Inarritu was in T-ride last year for Del Toro's film.  

Roma is rumored to be a Cannes selection and it wouldn't be a shock to me to see it appear on the TFF #45 lineup.

That's your truncated MTFB for this Monday.  More on Thursday.

Telluride Time Travel-The 11th Telluride Film Festival / Looking Back at Last Year's Oscar Predictions

Good Thursday...

TELLURIDE TIME TRAVEL- THE 11TH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL

I'm continuing my TFF history project in today's post includes a quick look back at the 11th Telluride Film Festival.  TFF #11 occurred on Aug. 31-Sept. 2, 1984.  Highlights:

Tribute Recipients were: Henry Hathaway, Janet Leigh and Andrzej Wajda.

SHOWS:

Act of Violence
Almonds and Raisins
America and Lewis Hine
Camila
Cheaters
Coup De Torchon
Everything for Sale
Full Moon in Paris
Go Masters
Go Tell It on the Mountain
The Holy Innocents
L'Hirondelle et la Mesange
The Last Campaign
Lonely Hearts
Love in Germany
Maidstone
Man of Flowers
Milky Way
Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters
My First Wife
Paris, Texas
Peter Ibbetson
A Poet in the Cinema: Andrey Tarkovsky
Providence
Raw Deal
Reign of Terror
Repo Man
Slightly Scarlett
Steaming
Stranger than Paradise
Sunday in the Country
The Times of Harvey Milk
To the Last Man
Where the Green Ants Dream
Wooden Crosses


Participants (partial list):

Ry Cooder
Athol Fugard
Werner Herzog
Jim Jarmusch
Klaus Kinski
Jessica Lange
Norman Mailer
Sam Sheperd
Dean Stockwell
Bertrand Travernier
Harry Dean Stanton
Wim Wenders

TFF #11 became an important fest to remember this year with the death of Harry Dean Stanton.




LOOKING BACK AT LAST YEAR'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Every year after the Oscar ceremony ends, there are some pundits who turn the page very quickly and predict possible players for the Oscar race a year out.  I scour those for clues about films that could become Telluride invitees.

I thought today, with Oscar 2018 less than a month away, it might be interesting to see what that looked like.  For example, in my Mar. 2, 2017 post I included a link to an Awards Circuit story that named 50 anticipated films.

From that list I named Downsizing, Battle of the Sexes and Wonderstruck as TFF possibilities (and they have zero nominations between them).  I also incorrectly guessed The Current War, Suburbicon and Molly's Game.

That MTFB post is here.

A more Oscar specific Awards Circuit article was referenced on Mar. 9th.

I culled that list of films and named possible TFF films which included: Battle of the Sexes, Downsizing, Wonderstruck, Lean on Pete and The Shape of Water.

That post is here.

And Glenn Whipp took a stab for the L.A. Times which I evaluated and named Downsizing, Wonderstruck and hinted at Darkest Hour.

So as we move to the end of Oscar season, know this...there will be a new set of these type of articles soon and I will examine those for TFF #45 possibilities.

You can't stop what's coming.


My analysis of The L.A. Times article is here.

That's your MTFB for Thursday.  More Monday.

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Del Toro Wins the DGA / Indiewire's Awards Spotlight Series with Greta and Saoirse / A Fantastic Reception for A Fantastic Woman

Hello Earthlings...It's Monday...

DEL TORO WINS THE DGA

Guillermo Del Toro's direction for 13 time Oscar nominee The Shape of Water was recognized as the best of 2017 on Saturday night by the Directors Guild of America.  The win makes him the odds on favorite to win the Oscar for Direction and likely boosts Shape's chances to win Best Picture, though of late, it has become surprisingly common for Oscar to split the Directing and Best Picture prizes.

Del Toro joins the other two of the "Three Amigos" Alfonso Cuaron (2013's Gravity) and Alejandro Inarritu (2014's Birdman and 2015's The Revenant)  as winners of the DGA Award.  Both of those directors went on to win the Oscar as well.

Del Toro was named winner in a field that included Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird, Jordan Peele/Get Out (who did win for Best Debut Feature), Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk and Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards.

Analysis and complete winners in all the DGA categories are linked below from:

Indiewire

Gold Derby

Awards Daily

INDIEWIRE'S AWARDS SPOTLIGHT SERIES WITH GRETA AND SAOIRSE

Jude Dry writing for Indiewire sets the stage for the online film source to talk to Oscar nominees Greta Gerwig (Direction, Original Screenplay) and Saoirse Ronan (Best Actress) about the five time nominated film (including Best Picture) and TFF #44 favorite Lady Bird.

You can access that video and the accompanying story at Indiewire here.

A FANTASTIC RECEPTION FOR A FANTASTIC WOMAN

Sebastian Lelio's A Fantastic Woman was highlighted steadily this past week.  The Oscar nominee for Best Foreign Language Film, and TFF #44 selection, was front and center in stories from Rolling Stone and Indiewire.

The Rolling Stone story is here.

The Indiewire story is here.

That's a wrap for MTFB until Thursday.  Hope everyone has a good week!

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Early Oscar Predictions for Supporting Acting and Screenplays / Variety Assesses Oscar's Best Picture Nominees / Indiewire Talks to Sebastian Lelio

Welcome to February and Michael's Telluride Film Blog.

THE EARLY MTFB/FAC PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS

As we get down to just a month-ish left before the 90th Academy Awards, here's a look at where I think these four major categories are  at the moment.  I have the competitors ranked from most likely winner to least likely.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Allison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
5) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Big Sick
5) The Shape of Water

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Molly's Game
3) Mudbound
4) Logan
5) The Disaster Artist

VARIETY ASSESSES OSCAR'S BEST PICTURE NOMINEES

In my last post I linked to an Indiewire analysis of each of this year's nine Best Picture nominees and their various pathways to a Best Picture win.  Today I'm passing along a Jenelle Riley piece from Variety that examines those nominees in much the same way.  Riley looks at each of the nominees advantages and challenges that they face over the next month.

That piece is linked here.


INDIEWIRE TALKS TO SEBASTIAN LELIO

Recently Indiewire's Eric Kohn sat down and interviewed Sebastian Lelio, the writer/director of the Oscar nominated foreign language film from Chile, A Fantastic Woman.  A Fantastic Woman played TFF #44 last Labor Day and it was the second film of Lelio's career that was featured at Telluride.  In 2013, his Gloria also made the TFF lineup.

A Fantastic Women also won three prizes at last year's Berlin International Film Festival.

Here is that interview from Indiewire.


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